It’s getting to that point in the season where it’s time to put up or shut up. This is quite similar to how I prefer when my dates. I like it when they put out and shut up. Despite the recent mistrial outcome I’m quite sure Bill Cosby agrees. I can’t believe how much of a creep Doctor Huxtable turned out to be. The dude ran an OB/GYN practice out of his basement. Come on! You can’t make this shit up. And before you go defending old Heathcliff, the dude is as innocent as O.J. Case closed.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Hello, I hope everyone is enjoying their work day.  I welcome you all to another wonderful DFS slate on FanDuel.  I know all the way back in week 1 I said I’d try to never recommend a game in Coors Field…well that ends today.  Sorry, but you can’t ignore the game in Coors Field.  There’s plenty of ways to make sure your lineup isn’t all chalk.  Making multiple lineups and stacking each team or stack a whole team 1-8 across a few lineups and I’m talking right down to the catchers.  Tony Wolters?  Sure, if he’s playing and not Tom Murphy.  What about Chris Herrmann?  Yeah, him too.  The usual suspects are in play as well including Mark Reynolds, Nolan Arenado, Jake Lamb, Charlie Blackmon, and Paul Goldschmidt.  Those OF bats ain’t too shabby either, so check and see if Gregor Blanco, Carlos Gonzalez, and/or David Peralta are playing.  Just remember: don’t use either of these pitchers, though…DUH.  Colorado is playing too well for Walker to make a difference and Hoffman is really really bad.

Now on to the picks…

New to FanDuel? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond?  Well be sure to read our content and subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.  Just remember to sign up through us before jumping into the fray. It’s how we know you care!

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Every year, there are surprises in fantasy baseball. Some players come out of nowhere and breakout or, in the case of Aaron Judge, absolutely dominate. Other players regress after a breakout season the year before. There are even the players who have long track records of mediocrity who, all of sudden, appear to have figured something out en route to becoming legitimate contributors both in fantasy and in, you know, real baseball. I like to call these players Justin Smoak-Logan Morrison-Yonder Alonso. The more popular terms among Razzballers for these players are Schmohawks and Hot Schmotatos.

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Trey Mancini aka All Day Trey Bombz was 2-for-4 Friday night with his 11th home run. He was all like, “Na Na, Bottoms Up, let’s see that one in Slow Motion.” Those are Trey Songz songs for the unindoctrined.  Trey is the MAN-cini lately, for real, batting .423 in the past week, with four homers and 11 RBI over the past 15 days. With Chris Davis out with an oblique injury (it’s still a little unclear), Trey looks to see an everyday role in the stacked Orioles line up. He’s been especially hot in June, with a .333/.370/.647 slash and an 1.017 OPS. Mmmm. The 25-year old rook has also hit safely in his past seven games, with multi-hit games in three of his past five. So how is it he’s available in 75% of fantasy leagues? Sure, the .368 BABIP is a bit high, but if we’re going to cherry-pick nerdy stats why not enjoy that 134 wRC+ and a 37.6 hard hit percentage. Did I mention he leads the team in batting average? And is second in RBIs with 35 on the year? Let’s not leave out the multiple position eligibility to sweeten the pot even more. In Baltimore/Washington, they love everything named Trey, and they might be onto something here. Grey told you to BUY, and I’d grab Mancini anywhere I needed some offensive help. If he can do the kind of damage in a full time role that he’s done part time, there should be plenty of Trey bombz in the future.

Here’s what else I saw in fantasy baseball Friday night:

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Kenley Jansen over his career has thrown 436.1 innings, has struck out 40.1% of batters faced, walked 7% to go with a .64 HR/9. He’s been worth 15.4 WAR over his career, which is pretty good for a reliever. His last 2 years, he’s basically done away with those walks, walking 4% and 4.4% of batters. And this year, he’s down to 0%. Yes, that’s right, he’s walked no one this year. Yes, I know he’s a reliever and he’s only thrown 27.2 innings this year, but it’s still pretty impressive. His 45% K-BB% would be the best since 1946, except Craig Kimbrel this year exists with his 49.5% K-BB%. But, the thing that makes Kenley Jansen so amazing is that unlike pretty much everyone else, he really only throws one pitch over and over again (Kimbrel throws fastball, curve). Once Jansen mostly junked his slider earlier in his career he’s thrown his cutter nearly 90% of the time, which is similar to the great Mariano Rivera. Kenley Jansen is able to get Major League hitters out throwing one pitch over and over again and is one of the main reasons why the Dodgers pen is so good. Now I know you’re saying – this is a DFS article, why is Kenley Jansen being discussed? Well, first of all, you actually can play relievers (just unclick the “Show Probable Pitchers Only” button), and there actually are some theoretical situations where you can justify it (2 or 3-game slates with a juicy Coors matchup is the most obvious one). But more importantly, with baseball (correctly) moving more and more to the “starting pitcher goes 5-6 innings, 7 innings tops, and the bullpen handles the rest”, bullpens become more and more relevant for analyzing whether or not a hitter has a good matchup. If the hitter is going to get 2 at-bats against the starter and then 2 at-bats against relievers, a batter facing a weak Dodgers starter becomes less attractive if half of his at-bats will be against Ross Stripling and Kenley “I Just Get Hitters Out With One Pitch, Man” Jansen. Meanwhile, facing the Twins becomes that much more attractive when their best reliever is Chris Gimenez. So while your main focus when analyzing a hitter’s matchup should always be on the starting pitcher, the bullpen is absolutely part of the equation so ignore it at your own peril.

On to the picks once Kenley Jansen walks a batter…

New to FanDuel? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond?  Well be sure to read our content and subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.  Just remember to sign up through us before jumping into the fray. It’s how we know you care!

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After homering in his fourth straight game, Matt Davidson (2-for-4, 2 runs) is halfway to Dale Long’s record of home runs in eight straight games.  A record I didn’t think would ever be matched, aside from it being matched twice previously by Ken Griffey Jr. and Don Mattingly.  Dale Long was mostly remembered for that record and getting to first base with his bat.  Good year for no-names whose last name ends in son:  Davidson, Morrison, Alonson.  The book on Davidson previously was a AAAA player, which is different than Mickey Mantle and David Wells.  That’s two AA players.  Sadly (for him), Davidson is playing so over his head that giraffes be like, “Yo, come down from there.”  In Triple-A, he was a 30% strikeout guy and is striking out at a 38% rate now, so he will hit .200 for the season and be an only-occasional home run guy.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

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Derek Fisher was called up by the Astros to replace the concussed Reddick.  First off, Derek needs to stop singing that jingle, “Trust the Astros Fisher, man.”  Tres annoying.  Saying tres instead of very is tres annoying, too. Fisher was hoping Reddick was some combination of reddish and haddock.  “Get that seaweed out of my face!”  That’s Nori Aoki.  Everyone in MLB is happy for Fisher except this guy.  If you thought Strickland-Harper was something… Sorry, for Derek Fisher, that was a layup.  As for fantasy, Fisher has power and speed, has had strikeout issues, but no worse than Bellinger.  He could be a difference maker if he plays 75%+ of the time.  One of the best guys in the minors this year.  Better on power than speed, inefficient as a runner.  Yes, PCL, but MLB is kinda PCL-like nowadays.  Might outproduce Brinson, though Fisher needs to stick in a job for that.  Yesterday, he went 2-for-3, 2 runs, 2 RBIs with his first home run, and I think Fisher is for reel, and not just on the casting couch.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

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Turns out there is a 50/50 shot that I’ve hit on Grey’s mom in Whole Foods. I would raise those odds to like a 90% chance if she likes wearing yoga pants. What can I say? I’m a sucker for yoga pants. If you haven’t figured it out yet, Grey and I found out this weekend that Grey’s mom and I live in the same area and shop at the same supermarkets! We also found out that JB doesn’t have to be the host in order to get sucked into a Brewers vortex for the first 20 minutes of the show, as talking about Lewis Brinson bled right into Domingo Santana, which bled into Orlando Arcia. We finally do move on, and get to such luminaries as Aaron Judge, Jeff Hoffman, Brad Peacock, Aaron Hicks, Corey Seager, and many more. I then congratulate “nightpandas” on his Razzball Only FantasyDraft Contest victory last week. It’s the latest edition of the Razzball Fantasy Baseball Podcast:

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I use a number of different tools, sites, and metrics every week to adjust my rankings and to determine exactly who I should focus on each week. I usually try to focus on players owned in less than 60% leagues, players who are rising or falling and who you should probably buy low or sell high on, or players who are new to the Top 100 or on the cusp of joining the ranks. It has only been a few weeks since I took over these rankings for the legendary M@, so I am still working on creating the most efficient system (I spend wayyyyyy too much time agonizing over these rankings every Sunday).

I start by going over my notes and spreadsheets from the previous week, then take a peek at Razzball’s Player Rater and look at the current rankings and the Rest of Season Projections. Once I jot down some notes from those, I take a look at ESPN’s PR15 Player Ratings for the last 15 days. Lastly, I check FanGraphs with a focus on the best wOBA for the last 14 days and the last 30 days. Usually, once I am finished with that process, I have an idea of who I am going to write about and a starting point for adjusting the rankings.

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Eric Thames is in Arizona vs Randall Delgado. Yes please. Delgado historically has been a fly ball pitcher with a career 42.4% ground ball rate. You know what Thames does to fly ball pitchers? He takes them in and spits them out and slugs nearly 1 vs them. Randall Delgado throws with his right hand and you know what Eric Thames does to pitchers who throw with their right hand? He hits .422/.576 with a .303 ISO. Player X (I’m sure you can guess who it is, given that this article is about Eric Thames) has a .417 wOBA, hits 2nd vs a below average fly ball pitcher in a top hitters park. What would you expect this player to cost? For comparison’s sake – Joey Votto has a .410 wOBA and costs $4,300 and is in a pitchers park. So, maybe $4,300 for Player X? Nope. Not $4,300. Paul Goldschmidt has a .416 wOBA and in Arizona and costs $4,500 without the platoon advantage, so Player X must be priced comparably to that, right? Nope, incorrect. Player X inexplicably costs $3,000. Player X is Eric Thames (huge shocking surprise there, I know). Three thousand dollars for one of the better hitters in baseball in a hitters park vs a fly ball pitcher with the platoon advantage.

On to the picks once The Thames inspires you to win money…

New to FanDuel? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond?  Well be sure to read our content and subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.  Just remember to sign up through us before jumping into the fray. It’s how we know you care!

Please, blog, may I have some more?