Imagine the Cubs decided to use Lester, Hendricks, Hammel and Lackey in the playoffs, and not Jake Arrieta. Not sure it would be the wrong move either. Arrieta isn’t just out of gas, he’s on a late-70s gas station line, cursing Jimmy Carter. He’s eaten six Chalupas and a Pintos ‘n Cheese from Taco Bell, washed it down with a 16-ounce Coke, and can’t produce any gas. He’s staying at a Marriott in Saudi Arabia where OPEC is meeting and all hotel guests get a complimentary barrel of petroleum and Arrieta can’t produce any gas. Yesterday, Arrieta went 5 IP, 7 ER and his ERA went up to 3.10. About five months ago, I said Arrieta doesn’t look right. I said it around the time of his no-hitter. That took some pants grapes. What’s funny (not funny) when you’re super early at calling something out, people write you off as cuckoo in the coconut. On April 29th, I said, “It’s hard to find a positive when you take this year’s numbers vs. last year’s (of Arrieta). Velocity is down, K-rate is down, walk rate is up, xFIP is up, luck is up, homers are up, ground balls are down and fly balls are up. It’s like looking under a Maserati’s hood and seeing a Mercedes engine. It’s not bad, but it’s not a Maserati.” And that’s me quoting me! On May 9th, I said, “Not to sound like a broken record, but his peripherals just haven’t been as good as last year thus far.” And that’s me quoting me sounding like a broken record! I continued to say more or less the same for a few months, then SUDDENLY everyone else started saying it. For 2017, I picture Arrieta being drafted a lot like Felix Hernandez in the preseason this year. People are concerned, but he’s so good, they’re still drafting Arrieta around 60th overall. Yeah, and it won’t work out either. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
You know how people write stuff on a grain of rice. With that in mind, on Rich Hill‘s blister this is written, “Took a whole lot of tryin’ to get up that Hill — R.I.P. Sherman Hemsley. I can’t believe I not only had room on this grain for an inspirational quote, but also room to attribute the quote to the wrong person and to also add in this meta comment about my inspirational quot–” Damn, he wasn’t able to fit everything. That’s the worst. That’s like when you’re writing a birthday card to someone and you start writing a note only to get to the end and need to start writing super-tiny and curved to fit it in. And that’s not the first time you’ve heard your curve is super-tiny. Rich Hill was perfect on Saturday — 7 IP, 0 ER, 0 baserunners, 9 Ks — but, to be honest, Hill has been perfect for the last two years (though only 29 IP last year). This year, 1.80 ERA, 0.96 WHIP with a 10.4 K/9 and 1.74 ERA over the past two years. So, ya know, your usual ace you get about 120 IP from. For 2017, it’s going to be hard to rank him much below the top 25 with the caveat that you’re only getting him for three to four months. Makes you wish rice grains were just a tad bigger to fit all of the superlatives on there for Rich Hill. Know what I mea– Anyway, here’s what else I saw this weekend in fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
Holy shizzballs. That’s not the Urban Dictionary definition of shizzballs either, which is when you shizz your grapes. That’s shizzballs as in this is the greatest display of sexiness since a young Kim Cattrall was featured in a window display. Brian Dozier is doing more for the long ball than any old man with shizzballs could ever imagine. That’s back to the original definition of shizzballs. Right now, Dozier is the exact perfect moment when your 12-year-old self pressed the buttons perfectly together on the old cable box and unscrambled Playboy TV at its best, with a perfectly scrolled, snowy version of Naughty Candid Camera. Trying to cover, when being caught, “It’s Allen Funt, mom. Uh…Maybe that’s not an F on the front of his last name.” Yesterday, Brian Dozier hit three more homers — 3-for-5, 4 RBIs, hitting .279 — and now has 38 homers on the year, and is easily leading the entire majors for homers in the 2nd half with 24 homers. For 2017, he’s going to be tough to peg, due to his inflated HR/FB% and falling line drive rate, but he doesn’t look much worse than a 25 HR/15 SB guy, which still has value. For this year, obviously you ride the lightning. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
As we always do about this time! *beat drops, Grey does the worm, Grey’s iPhone alarm goes off, time to put more money in the meter* Damn, how long was I worming for? September 1st hits and teams expand their rosters to the Four-Oh. Now pour some extra bullpen guys out for all the dead moments between pitcher changes. So, what does this mean for all of us, fantasy baseballers (<–my mom’s term!)? It means call-ups and rookie nookie is aplenty. Aplenty, I tell ya! By the by, for big boned people, rather than an X-Large t-shirt, they should call them aplen-Tees. Yeah, I just made the English language better. High-five yourself for even knowing to read me. *Grey worms, alarm goes off* Damn, I need to get more coins. At this point in the year, you need guys that are getting everyday playing time, so I’m pumped up the jam on rookie nookie, but if a guy isn’t playing every day, he’s as good as dirt in redraft leagues, and I don’t have a Soil category, do you? It’s a most exciting time to be alive and be fantasy balling, but don’t lose sight of the real goal here: to get quality at-bats from guys that are playing, not to pick up a guy that will be great in 2017. (Unless you’re in a keeper league; then, by all means, knock yourself out! Not literally! Ouch.) Which bring us to Yoan Mocada. Red Sox manager, John Farrell, says Moncada’s promotion is eminent. They have a bobblehead giveaway planned, a kid’s jersey giveaway, a ‘Yoan yawn coverer’ which is really just a foam hand, a–*intern whispers in my ear* Seems I was misusing ‘promotion.’ I already gave you my Yoan Moncada fantasy. He’ll be up on Friday. He should be owned everywhere and will play 3rd base. No Gas Face there. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
If you’re still focused on fantasy baseball, pat yourself on the back for either making it into the playoffs or at least being in the playoff hunt. Here’s an interesting, and possibly false, stat. I started the season with thirty-one followers. I am currently down to eighteen. Seventeen of those eighteen have put themselves into a playoff position by reading my posts. The one follower that is not is my wife. She doesn’t even play fantasy baseball, she just reads my posts every week to make sure I am actually writing a post when she asks me to do something and I tell I can’t because I have to write an article. Ok, so I don’t really know how many followers I had or still have, or how many have actually benefited from my guidance, but I do know this. One hundred percent of my readers that are in the playoffs are actually in the playoffs. They’ve done studies, you know. 60% of the time, it works every time.Please, blog, may I have some more?
Twenty-six years after my Lord and Savior, Reggie Jackson, retired from professional baseball to collect cars, full-length fur coats and start a business where you use cocktail franks as cocktail stirrers, I saw a young Mariner by the name of Brad Miller. To this day, when you Google “Brad Miller sleeper,” you still see archival footage of Grey’s massive excitement — that’s not what she said! I was jazzed back in 2013 because Miller had hit 20 HRs, stole 11 bases and over .300 between the majors and minors. Then 2014 and 2015 happened, Miller did nothing, and I retreated into my cubby hole of snack food that I eat out of sight from my Cougar wife. “I’m snacking on kale, baby doll!” “Grey, you sound louder than usual.” I was being amplified due to eating a nacho cheese Bugle. Finally, this year I was sure not to own Miller anywhere. So, of course, he breaks out. Yesterday, Brad Miller went 3-for-4, 2 RBIs and his 25th homer, 5th homer this week, while hitting .265. On our 30-day Player Rater, Miller is 5th most valuable for hitters. The top 4 –> Blackmon, Hamilton, Braun, Betts. Yeah, pretty good company, like Reggie’s cocktail frank stirrers’ company, The Dog That Stirs The Drink, Inc. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
True or false: A) Dansby Swanson is famous for being Ted Knight’s caddy in Caddyshack. B) Starting a meme at his frat house in Arizona where he’d put his checkered pants on a cactus with the caption, “I’m thirsty, yo.” C) There’s no C. D) All the above. E) Was drafted a second ago by the Diamondbacks 1st overall, then traded to the Braves for the fellow WASP, Shelby Miller, and all-around terrible pitcher. If you answered D) All the above, how did you know what all the above was before reading E? Also, it was a true or false quiz, what the hell is all of the above?! So, Dansby Swanson is being called up by the Braves just in time, no lie, for their series against the Diamondbacks. Dayum. Hello, wounds, here’s your salt. In Prospector Ralph’s midseason top 100 prospects, Dansby was 22nd overall, right by Willie Calhoun, who totally tanked Mike Dukakis’ campaign. Swanson is a 22-year-old that was a’ight in Double-A (8 HRs, 6 SBs, .261 in 84 games). That’s neither here nor there, he’s young; he should be owned in most mixed leagues; you’re not going to find his talent level on waivers in many leagues; semicolons; fun. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
I was watching the PCL–International League All-Star game (Psyche! You thought it was going to be about the MLB All Stars; well it is, we’ll get there and Psych was an underrated great show) and took note of a few older All Stars.
1). Casey McGehee still plays! And still spells his last name weird. He was fantasy relevant for a short time in Milwaukee and this season in the PCL he’s got five homers and an OPS of .837 at AAA(and little chance of getting a call-up, but shout out to him anyway).
2). Jesus Montero was also around (hitting 11 homers with an .810 OPS in AAA). Fun fact. He’s got a brother named Jesus Montero. Another fun fact, too many 1B in Toronto in front of him for now, but it is Edwin splitting time at DH and Justin Smoak. So keep an ear to the ground (don’t do that, the ground is dirty) and maybe Jesus rises again (yep, should’ve seen that one coming).
3). The immortal Tuffy Gosewisch, familiar to Diamondback fans only (or at least he should be), who has a .952 OPS in the PCL and a career MLB OPS at .531. It’s certainly true, the PCL is where you want to hit.
4). I’m not a fan of Billy Ripken. Love the F Face baseball card. Not a fan of his announcing nor his appearances on MLB Network. More a fan of Al Leiter who’s pretty decent on MLB Network and the Marlins and Yankees games I’ve watched. While we’re at it can we send Harold Reynolds back to ESPN? Keep Byrnes, who I’m glad they toned down and Smoltz and Pedro (sometimes) with Amsinger and MLB network is good to go. There were a lot of good prospects at the PCL-International All-Star game, but that isn’t my bag, so I’ll refer you here.Please, blog, may I have some more?
Did you enjoy your time away from DFS during the All Star Break? It’s time to pull yourself away from wandering into traffic to catch Pokemon and back to grinding out DFS wins. The time off is a good time to look back and see what has worked and what hasn’t worked so far this season. Have you been withdrawing like a baller? Then keep on doing what you do. If you’ve been bleeding money to the sharks though, it’s time to take a step back and evaluate the process. Try something different for a few weeks and see if results improve. It’s really hard in this game to know what changes are making a positive impact on results and what can just be chalked up to variance. For example, I had a great April and May, followed by one of my worst months I can remember in June. Nothing changed, in fact, it’s the same process I’ve used for the past three successful DFS seasons. July has been a bounce back, but the point is; sometimes, you just go cold. Try not to panic too much and watch that bankroll. Bankroll management is a HUGE part of long term success in this game and that might be the most important part of the process to nail down. Don’t get too high after a win and suddenly start playing in $100 tournaments. You should scale back after a string of losses until you get off the schnide though. It’s not an exact science, but we’re here to help if you have any questions. Enough jibber-jabber, let’s get into the picks for Saturday’s slate of games and help you start off the second half with a win:
New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well reserve your spot in the 25 Team Razzball Exclusive League set to run Monday July 18th to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.Please, blog, may I have some more?
Welcome, prematurely balding men and five women who are married to prematurely balding men and decided if you can’t beat them, join them! Make yourself comfortable, this is gonna be a long post. Here, enjoy some coffee. Oops, you just drank rat poison. Don’t worry, it can’t be worse than owning Chris Archer in the 1st half. Oh, you owned him and that’s why you drank the poison! Now, I’m following! Hey, I’m supposed to be leading! Before we get into the top 100 for the 2nd half of 2016 fantasy baseball, let’s just be glad our 18-year-old selves can’t see us now, we’d get beat up! But our twelve-year-old selves would think we’re the coolest! So, as with all of the other 2016 fantasy baseball rankings, take this list with a grain of salt. If you need a 2nd baseman, but an outfielder is above him that doesn’t mean you can’t trade that outfielder for that 2nd baseman. Also, things change in fantasy baseball. Daily. I could put Bryce Harper number two on the top 100 list for the second half of 2016 and he could pull a–Well, we won’t even mention an injury with Bryce. Why soil a good thing, ya know? This list is a road map for where I think guys are valued. It’s not the Holy Grail in the Church of Grey, that would be my mustache. This list is NOT (caps for emphasis, not aesthetics) where I see guys ending up if you were to take their first half and combine it with the 2nd half. This is simply a list of the top hundred fantasy baseball players if you were to pick them up today. So while David Price did not have the greatest first half, he will appear on this list because I still believe. The projections are not their combined 1st half and 2nd half numbers; these are their projections for the 2nd half of 2016. I also liberally used our rest of the season Fantasy Baseball Player Rater. That’s right, we have a Player Rater that tells you what players will do. It’s like that camera from The Twilight Zone. Welcome to the future! Anyway, here’s the top 100 for fantasy baseball for the 2nd half of 2016:Please, blog, may I have some more?