We all know Chone Figgins loves stealing 2nd base, but he might be starting early this year. After a brisk calisthenic session, Don Wakamatsu decided to try Figgy at 2nd base with Jose Lopez shifting to 3rd base. The Mariners haven’t had this amount of speed at 2nd base since they faced David Eckstein and Ichiro moved up 50 steps. Suddenly, Figgins’s Sparky Anklebiter power and top tier speed looks much better. It would catapult him to the top 7 of the top 20 2nd basemen for 2010. I’d rank him right after Cano and in a promising tier. Going for steals at 2nd base wouldn’t hurt nearly as much at 3rd base. But he’s not there yet and, frankly, I don’t think the move to 2nd is going to happen, barring an injury to Jose Lopez. When you have players comfortable at their position, you don’t mess with it for s’s and g’s. But since we’re going down this road, it helps Jose Lopez’s value too. Not as much though. Or maybe Lopez will replace Kotchko at 1st. Ah, rumors, surrounding me every day. Anyway, here’s what else is happening in fantasy baseball:
Russell Branyan – Landed with the Indians. Yippee. He’s covered in the top 20 1st basemen post that is actually the top 24 1st basemen post. Now tough actin’ Manny Acta is saying Branyan’s going to play 1st base, LaPorta is going to play left field and Michael Brantley… Well, Brantley’s shizz out of luck. Brantley’s value obviously plummets if he starts the season in the minors. It’s still early so things can happen. Doesn’t look good right now. My real question is how did Manny Acta get another job managing a Major League team? Did he really impress that many people in Washington? A career .385% managerial winning percentage sparked interest? For some reason this made me think of my grocery shopping. Expectations are super low when I go grocery shopping. I buy frozen fried chicken and toilet paper. That covers everything. Literally. But no one’s hiring me to do their grocery shopping. This is Manny Acta. He’s a manager that buys easy-to-prepare fried chicken and toilet paper.
Eric Gagne – The Canadian ex-Dodger admitted to using HGH. He should’ve blamed it on socialized medicine.
Felipe Lopez – Looks headed to the Cards. Does nothing to his value, which is already mentioned in the top 20 2nd basemen.
Brandon Lyon/Matt Lindstrom – The Astros know they’re going to win 70 games, they’re just not sure who’s going to close them. My guess is Lyon will get the majority of the saves. Ed Wade said, “I know there have been a lot of successful teams over the last dozen years or so who have used more than one closer to get to the finish line.” Look at Ed checking his facts or so! As of right now, I’d draft both of them. If you draft Lyon, you should try and get Lindstrom too. In fantasy baseball and S&M, they call this handcuffing. If you play with people like me, your leaguemates will immediately draft Lindstrom right after you draft Lyon. Miserable cork-soakers!
Cameron Maybin – He’s excited to hit 2nd this year. That makes two of us, friend.
Francisco Liriano – Francisco Liriano reported he’s healthy and eager to take the mound. Only problem is Liriano reported that in January of 2008. I only point this out as a reminder to keep health reports, positive and negative, in perspective during Spring Training. Every year the Royals are a contender in February, Boof Bonser’s lost weight, Milton Bradley’s turned over a new leaf, Manny’s going to retire and Jesus Colome reminds a reporter it’s Hay-Zeus.
Usually a pitcher’s third season in the bigs is the year they truly break out. Another factor to look for is their BB/9, is it trending downwards? Another factor, is K/9 trending upwards? WHIP heading down? Innings aren’t piling on too fast? ERA, while not really a great stat, is it heading down? BABIP fine? On a team that can win some games? Check. Check. Check. Double check. Check. Yup. Oh, yeah. Uh-huh and you betcha. I might sound flippant at times, but I’m not shooting from the hip. And definitely no hip shooting, when I pegged Rich Hill as a breakout for the 2008 season. Hill had my faith. All of the data I looked at told me to ignore his spring training mechanics issue. He would figure it out. According to WebMD, Rich Hill came down with Ankielitis. A rare condition when stats don’t matter nearly as much as a psychiatrist’s opinion. He is a shook one. Maybe Greinke can sponsor him on his road back from his ‘psyche ache.’ Until then, I suggest you drop Hill in all but the deepest of leagues. I’m holding onto him right now in a NL-Only league. In all other leagues, I’ll be cutting ties. Goodbye, Hill. Oh, yeah, goodbye to Gallardo, as well. His injury isn’t the kind he’s going to come back from any time soon. You should cut ties with him in all one year leagues. That’s if you’re paying attention. (I hate people who abandon teams. But then you wouldn’t be reading this if you abandon teams, unless you just like to be contrary.) To replace Hill and/or Gallardo, I’m looking at these guys (obviously depends on league depth): Shawn Hill, Jeremy Guthrie, Jon Lieber, Tom Gorzelanny (extremely high risk, and I wouldn’t start him until he shows he can be decent), Mark Buehrle (not an every start starter), Jo-Jo Reyes (high risk, high reward), Jason Schmidt (looking for a late-May/early-June return, expect setbacks), Braden Looper (not an every start starter) and Aaron Laffey (probably loses his starting job when Westbrook returns). All and all… Ugh. But the show must go on. Anyway, here’s what I saw yesterday:
Taylor Buchholz – Now setting up Fuentes. I picked him up in a NL-only league and got a random save. Hey, if you’re trolling for MRs, you can do worse.
Aaron Laffey – Sometimes teams don’t have scouting reports on guys and they sneak through. Consider Laffey a sneaker at this point.
Mike Jacobs – I tried to trade him for Saito in one league. (The team announced they were punting saves and I figured I’d make a run at their only closer.) Anyway, I was denied. Hey, if you hit on enough girls, eventually you get laid. I think this non-trade could end up benefiting me in the end. That’s if Jacobs’s finger holds up.
Nick Markakis – Hit his six out of the parkakis on Sunday and he’s a second half hitter.
Kenny Rogers – Yesterday, I watched some Baseball Tonight for the first time all year. (They should consider hiring a homeless person to dress as Kruk and dole out some insight. Ravich, “Kenny Rogers can still get out of jams.” Homeless Kruk, “I urinate in public!”) The reason why I mention this because now on Baseball Tonight they highlight someone from each team in their “Fantasy Impact” section. (Maybe this is an old feature, but I don’t usually watch Baseball Tonight. I just watch the games.) So in their Fantasy Impact section for the Twins/Tigers game, who do they focus on? Cabrera? Morneau? Gomez? Sheffield? Any hitter on either team? Nope, Kenny Rogers. I kid you not. They run his line like this is helpful to someone. Outside of AL-Only leagues, is he even on anyone’s team? I think I’m getting an ulcer. Thanks, Baseball Tonight!
Joe Saunders – Kruk, “Give up solo home runs. That’s what great ones do.” Somewhere Bert Blyleven is smiling. Anyway, Saunders shouldn’t have won this game. He was very hittable.
Carlos Ruiz – Hit a home run on Sunday. Another preseason fave of mine that fell out of favor, but maybe he can get hot. If you’re still looking for a catcher, there’s still plenty of time left in the season to turn things around.
Santiago Casilla - Still no runs given up. I don’t think he reaches Orel’s record 59 scoreless innings, but he got a vulture win yesterday. Ya know, every little bit helps.
Melky Cabrera – Leads the Yankees in home runs. I think Arod might have something to say about that by the end of the year.
Robinson Cano – Sunday home run. I think you still can buy low on him, but you better act fast.
German Duran – Hit a home run as he filled in for Kinsler yesterday, but he could get time at third with Blalock on the DL (Blalock on the DL? No way!). Duran went 22/11 in Double A last year. Cust kayin’.
Jack Cust – Speaking of which, he hit another home run. He goes on streaks where you wonder why he isn’t owned on 100% of teams. Then he gets cold and you wonder why you ever picked him up. Ride the hot streak.
Chone Figgins – Looks like he might be headed to the DL, which will be a good thing rather than him sit on the bench for two weeks and hinder your ability to fill in for him.
Ian Stewart – I now have him in three leagues. I’ll probably drop him by next Sunday, but the Rockies are a bit of a mess right now. I wouldn’t be surprised if they call Stewart up sooner rather than later. If they don’t call him up, you drop him. No harm, no foul. I know you’re probably excited about the prospects of having Eric Hinske on your bench all week, but why not pick up Stewart? Are you afraid of success? Winning got you down?
Tony Pena Jr. – Hillman gave Pena 27 days to get himself straight or Callaspo gets the start. Considering Pena has a .252 career average in seven minor league seasons, I’d say he’s probably had enough time to prove himself. Pena, don’t go away mad, just go away.
Kevin Kouzmanoff – I’ve never seen someone get so many empty lines. He has more 0-for-4s than Robert Downey Jr. has drug relapses (BTW, Thought Iron Man was entertaining if uneven. What I don’t get is why was Paltrow in this movie? Who likes her besides Chris, Apple and Moses? She really makes my skin crawl. Why can’t Mila Kunis be in every movie that needs to have, like, a girl? Kunis could’ve pulled this role off even if it does seem like she’s coked out of her mind all the time. That would’ve at least made for an interesting subtext with Bob Downey. Like when are they going to stick needles in each other’s veins? Which reminds me, for a few of those early scenes when Downey’s partying I couldn’t help but think, “Not only was he partying like this for real, but he was probably doing it while getting a hummer from Anthony Michael Hall.”)
Jarrod Saltalamacchia – He’s starting two days then Laird for two days. Best platoon ever for fantasy baseball purposes. You know exactly when to start him. I have Navarro and Salty switching out in one league, so far 6-for-14 with 2 RBIs.
Scott Kazmir – Returns to take a four inning dump. Wasn’t a fan coming into the season, and I’m still not. I’d see what I can get for him in a trade.
Mike Cameron – Hit two home runs. No reason why he can’t do his uze — 20/20, .250.
Eric Gagne – Pre-steroids testing — 84 consecutive saves. After steroids testing — 25 saves and a plus 5 ERA. Weird!
Hunter Pence – I wasn’t that high on Pence coming into the year, but he has three home runs in three games. You know, um, consecutively.
Greg Smith – At this point, I’d use him in mixed leagues (especially for his next start against the Rangers), but I wouldn’t bet that this streak of excellent pitching will last. I think he’s another sneaker.
Aaron Cook – I can’t imagine anyone’s trading for a Rockies pitcher, but if you have him I’d see what you can get.
Ryan Zimmerman – Sat for the first time in 205 games. He insists that he didn’t sit because he’s batting .217/3/14. I insist he’s an effin’ liar.
Evan Longoria – I think there’s probably a more reliable (read: boring) option on your waivers. Upside’s cool and all, but in one year leagues I’d prefer Zimmerman. And I don’t like Zimmerman. Maybe someone’s fed up in your league with Zimmerman and would like some Longoria.
Tim Redding – If picking up Redding causes you to get an erection for longer than four hours, you should see a doctor, but NL-Only owners could do worse.
Matthew Berry at ESPN is on a ‘fantasy jihad’ to make sure you don’t pay for saves come draft day. No word on whether resisting this temptation will be paid off with 72 virgins.
While this is auction draft advice, I’m going to assume that Mr. Berry would recommend that snake drafters also eschew J.J. Putz for putzes like Joe Borowski and Todd Jones. Eric Karabell at ESPN has been consistent on this advice for several years now as well.
There is definitely merit to this position but does that mean drafting a top closer is meritless? Of course not.
Let’s get on with the debunking…
Pundit View: “Saves come into the league.” – i.e., you can pick up saves throughout the year via free agency as injuries and poor performance bring new closers into the mix.
Rudy Gamble View: Everyone in your league is on the lookout for closers on the FA wire – especially the owner of the soon-to-be-disposed closer. You can’t bank on these saves.
Let’s look at pitchers with 8+ saves from last year who were most likely not picked on 2007 draft day (similar to Matthew Berry’s list except I added Al Reyes and left off Brett Myers who was drafted as a starter).
Kevin Gregg, 32 saves
Jeremy Accardo, 30
Al Reyes, 26
Manny Corpas, 19
Brad Hennessey, 19
Matt Capps, 18
Joakim Soria, 17
Alan Embree, 17
CJ Wilson, 12
Dan Wheeler, 11
Rafael Soriano, 9
Bob Howry, 8
Antonio Alfonseca, 8
This is a total of 226 saves available for grabs. Divide that by 10 teams in your league and you’re talking about an average of about 23 saves per team. The average number of saves per team in a league is about 90 (think 30 MLB teams with 30 saves each).
Free agent closers are definitely a factor in determining final rankings in Saves and I highly recommend keeping an eye on closer situations throughout the league. If you’ve got a closer on the ropes, pick up his potential successor to be safe (commonly called handcuffing). But you can’t bank on free agent closers to contribute more than 1/4 of your saves.
Thinking more broadly, there’s an underlying assumption here that closers come into a league more than hitters – hence, it’s a waste to draft closers ahead of offense.
Here’ is a lineup of players that most likely weren’t drafted in 10 team 5×5 MLB leagues on draft day 2007.
C Ronny Paulino
1B Carlos Pena
2B BJ Upton
SS Troy Tulowitzki
3B Ryan Braun
OF Chris Young
OF Shane Victorino
OF Corey Hart
OF Hunter Pence
OF Jack Cust
CI Ryan Garko
MI Kelly Johnson
UTIL Kevin Kouzmanoff
Bench Mark Reynolds
Bench Nate McLouth
Bench Matt Stairs
Some of these players are better than others. Most probably didn’t have much competition when they were eventually picked up (again, assuming snake draft leagues where there is no bidding).
Moral of the story: every position and stat category ‘comes into the league’. But closers/saves are the only position/stat that EVERYONE is keeping an eye on.
Pundit View: Top closers are a risky investment.
Rudy Gamble View: Top closers aren’t that risky. They generally deliver within their drafted tier. The volatility in Wins and Saves means you shouldn’t reach too far for one closer vs. another in the same tier.
1. Joe Nathan (3,3)
2. B.J. Ryan (n/a)
3. Francisco Rodriguez (4,5)
4. Mariano Rivera (13,12)
5. Billy Wagner (11,10)
6. Huston Street (18,21)
7. J.J. Putz (1,1)
8. Francisco Cordero (9,8)
9. Chad Cordero (27,15)
10. Trevor Hoffman (8,9)
So aside from BJ Ryan, there weren’t really any disaster picks. Yes, Huston Street got injured again but he wasn’t a complete disaster.
But this top 10 list only has 5 of the top 10 finishers. Here are the other 5 and their position on my draft board:
Takashi Saito (2,2) – ranked 11th
Jonathan Papelbon (5,4) – unranked only b/c he was set to start
Bobby Jenks (6,7) – ranked 12th
Jose Valverde (7,6) – ranked 20th
Jason Isringhausen (10,11) – ranked 17th
So assuming Papelbon would’ve been added if he was announced to close a little bit earlier, the only closers outside my top 15 rankings are Valverde or Izzy.
From a tier perspective, I’d say 3 of the 4 top tier relievers delivered (Nathan, K-Rod, Papelbon – yes, BJ Ryan – no). If you say the 2nd tier goes from Mariano to Jenks, 8 of 9 delivered (Street’s 16 saves a disappointment). The 3rd tier of Lidge, Chris Ray, Fuentes, Gordon, Izzy, Gagne, Jones, and Valverde was a lot riskier as only 3 of this 8 could be considered a ‘success’. The 4th tier gets ugly – for every Borowski, there is a Dempster or Torres or Benitez.
While there’s an argument that it’s a crapshoot where top closers will rank year-end, it seems clear that relying solely on 3rd or 4th tier closers makes it more likely you’ll crap out.
Pundit View: Closers are less valuable because they only impact one category (saves).
Rudy Gamble View: Closers HAVE an impact across ERA, WHIP, and Strikeouts (even if less than Starters). The difference between a top closer and a low tier closer is larger than you think.
“Saves are saves”, right? No. I’m not saying saves aren’t sometimes worth sucking up garbage ERA/WHIP from the likes of Todd Jones or Joe Borowski. But it comes at a price…
Based on our 2008 Point Shares, here are the differences between JJ Putz and Todd Jones for ERA, WHIP, and Strikeouts (ignoring Wins here since reliever win projections aren’t very reliable):
ERA – Putz 0.6, Jones -1.1, Difference 1.7
WHIP – Putz 0.7, Jones -0.8, Difference 1.5
K – Putz -0.5, Jones -1.4, Difference 0.9
The total difference in ERA/WHIP/K b/w Putz and Jones is at 4.1 point shares. That’s 4.1 points in the standings. To put that in perspective, it’s the difference between Alfonso Soriano (3.48 point shares) and Nick Swisher (-0.49 point shares).
For those of you who prefer seeing stats vs. point shares, here are the results of swapping JJ Putz for Todd Jones on ERA/WHIP/K for a random team I chose from a MockDraftCentral.com mock draft:
(With Putz, With Jones)
ERA (3.83, 3.96)
WHIP (1.313, 1.339)
K (826, 782)
So here’s my advice….
Top closers are worth paying for – at the right prices.
The top two going into this year are Papelbon (yeah, that’s him dancing) and Putz. While their point shares rank them at #21 and #23, they are usually lasting to the 4th or 5th round in most drafts. If you can get either guy in the 4th round or later, it’s good value.
I prefer waiting until these two go off the board and settling for Nathan or K-Rod. These two come in at #33 and #37 on Point Shares and waiting for the first two to come off the board ensures you don’t jump too early on closers.
If a closer run happens soon after the top 2 come off the board, I’d recommend picking up anyone in the next tier (Rivera, Wagner, F. Cordero, Saito, Jenks) with your next pick. I know blogmate Grey prefers to start with one of these guys vs. a Nathan or K-Rod. I can’t argue with it – this 2nd tier shows similar reliability. Just matters how much you value the peripherals like ERA/WHIP/Ks.
But I do feel that having at least one top two tier closer is essential to minimizing your chances of being caught at the bottom on Save points (FYI, I don’t believe in punting any category unless you’re in H2H. There is too much margin for error in player statistics to think you will make it up in other categories to make this a reliable gambit. Possible, yes. Bankable, no.)
I’d then be looking for a 2nd or 3rd tier closer and 3rd or 4th tier closer so that you’ve got 3 closers going into the season. If there are still closers on the board after, say, the 15th round or so, just start grabbing them. You can either hope they reward the risk or look to trade them – one rule of closers is that it’s the only position where even the mediocre players have trade value (who’ll get more on a trade – Chad Cordero or Orlando Cabrera?).
The only time I’d change from this strategy is MAYBE if you’re playing in a novice league. But if that’s the case, you might as well just stick to ESPN for fantasy baseball advice.
November 15, 2007By: Grey Category: UncategorizedNo Comments →
It’s November. Oscar contenders hit theaters, Xmas shopping begins and baseball free agents wait by the phone to find out who’s overpaying for them. Picture: Andruw Jones sitting by his phone, waiting for it to ring, picking it up occasionally thinking it has rung. Here’s a breakdown of some free agents and why they matter in fantasy baseball.
Yorvit Torrealba
.255/47/8/47/2
Yorvit Torrealba goes to the Mets. This seems all but done at this point. He went from a sleeper in a deep league to a “stay away.” Leaving Coors, hurts his value in a big way. His numbers last year away from home were: .212/15/2/13. Seriously, what is Minaya smoking? Not to mention, Yorvit could end up in a 70/30 time split with Ramon Castro. Let someone else take him in your NL-only league. Personally, I feel the Mets would have been better served coaxing Todd Hundley out of retirement.
Barry Bonds
.276/75/28/66/5
Barry Bonds goes to the American League. This seems inevitable. He contends he can still play the field, but Barry is DH-bound or he’s not playing. If you’re in an OPS or OBP league, you absolutely should draft Bonds. His patience at the plate is almost equal to his ego. Or he could go to jail for thirty years, guess we’ll have wait to see.
Andruw Jones
.222/83/26/94/5
This was a walk year, you’re supposed to perform well, you mother******! Let’s hope the fantasy gods repay Andruw Jones by landing him in Washington. (On a related note: Hey, Nationals, bring back Tom Paciorek! Don Sutton sucks!) Perhaps the contract year pressure actually got in Andruw Jones’s head and caused him to choke for the entire season. Though, I don’t buy it. He pays like he’s listening to Bobby McFerrin in his iPod. Why would pressure get to him? Frankly, I think a lot of people will be predicting a bounce back for Andruw, but just maybe his God-given abilities that he coasted on for so many years have begun to slow. Defensively, sure he’s great, but I wouldn’t put him on a sleeper list for next year.
Michael Barrett
Numbers don’t matter
Michael Barrett goes to Colorado. This I would drop onto the sleeper list ASAP if it were to go down. I wrote above that numbers don’t matter and, in this case, they don’t. This is what happened to Michael Barrett this year: He was talking to a girl he liked in gym class and the class bully pantsed him and he was wearing skidmarked underwear. Mortified, he moved to a new town and never shook the embarrassment. Hopefully, by next year he’s moved on, because he’s not too old to bounce back to being a very productive offensive catcher.
Eric Gagne
Again, numbers-shmumbers
He will break your heart. Those Cy Young years are trailing off into the rearview mirror. Let someone else worry about his back, rotator cuff, Magglio-wannabe hair, etc. If you’re a francophile, draft Erik Bedard.
Matt Clement
Anyone who knows my past drafting can attest, I have a special place in my heart for Matt Clement. I will not waver. He strikes people out and usually comes in with a low to mid-range ERA (and on the high side WHIP, but I’ll ignore that since I’m a fan). Definitely capable of fourth fantasy starter status. If he lands in the NL (preferably with the Padres), I will have Clement on at least one of my teams and I suggest you do the same. Lest not forget how well he can deflect a line drive with his melon; this guy is money!
