Fantasy Baseball Advice

…Or How I Learned to Stop Loving Pronk as He Bombed. As The Three Stooges may have said, we’re here for the yucks. These draft busts are compliments of Rudy Gamble’s fantasy baseball player rater. I’m simply his servant relaying you some information, but if you ask me to carry the piss bucket, it’s a no-go.  For these 20 draft busts, I took Expected Point Shares and Actual Point Shares and found the schmohawk hitters with the biggest difference. It ain’t rocket science, ya’ll. It’s fantasy baseball. Now some of the busts were so, um, busty that they didn’t even show up on Rudy Gamble’s Point Shares because he dropped all of the schmohawks that didn’t have over 377 at-bats. So will this draft bust list be without Hafner and Victor Martinez? Nope, I got the master Point Shares list — oh, snap! — and added in some schmohawks. In each entry you’ll find the Average Draft Position (ADP) from Mock Draft Central and the Forget the Plunger, Call the Plumber (FPCP) metric, which I made up to illustrate how badly these fantasy baseball hitters messed up your team. Anyway, here’s the 20 biggest draft busts of 2008, the hitters:

20. Rafael Furcal - His one saving grace was his relative quick exit. One real solid month and goodbye. Other than clogging up your DL spot for a bit, his bust is Linda Hamilton-like. ADP, 78 — FPCP, .4

19. Jorge Posada - He’s a catcher that people were warning you against drafting, so you should’ve known better. ADP, 91 — FPCP, 1.8

18. Andruw Jones - Again, doesn’t hurt as much as some because you should’ve known not to draft him. ADP, 100 — FPCP, 2.9

17. Khalil Greene - Khalil Greene is the lowest drafted guy on this list, but his ugliness made it necessary. ADP, 191 — FPCP, 3.3

16. Eric Byrnes - Every ‘pert, including me, warned you in the preseason of an impending bust for Byrnes, so his bust feels a bit easier to swallow — like it’s lactating. Though he was still a hustling piece of crap while he was playing. ADP, 52 — FPCP, 4.1

15. Gary Sheffield - Bad temper + no roids = Old cranky dude who can’t stay healthy or hit with power. ADP, 86 — FPCP, 4.2

14. Jimmy Rollins - I tried to warn people against hoping for a repeat MVP campaign, but even I didn’t envision him hitting only 11 home runs. Micah Owings could’ve hit 11 home runs in Citizen’s Bank. ADP, 6 — FPCP, 5.7

13. Prince Fielder - He ended earning the most Point Shares on this list. He still fell way short of predicted value. He would’ve been worth drafting 40th not 11th. ADP, 11 — FPCP, 6.2

12. Hideki Matsui - Hideki loves porn and this year he left his owners feeling like jerk offs. ADP, 88 — FPCP, 7.0

11. Paul Konerko - Drafted on average 84th as he sprinkled one week of value between six months of weak. ADP, 84 — FPCP, 8.7

10. Carlos Guillen - I ain’t down with Guillen because of what he offers even in a good year. This year’s blowout was not a good year. ADP, 49 — FPCP, 10.2

9. Jeff Francoeur - I drafted Frenchy right in front of Josh Hamilton in one league. Now Frenchy will be the one player I will never draft again. Every year one player gets this distinction and this year Francoeur earns the badge of dishonor. ADP, 101 — FPCP, 11.4

8. Robinson Cano - This one hurts more than some because I really believed that Cano would turn it around in the 2nd half. *sniffles* It still hurts. ADP, 64 — FPCP, 13.1

7. Ryan Zimmerman - And the pain from Cano has worn off already. It actually feels good to see this schmohawk here. Schadenfreude! ADP, 89 — FPCP, 15.9

6. Chone Figgins - 34 steals is what you wanted. 72/1/22/.276 is not. ADP, 53 — FPCP, 16.0

5. Victor Martinez - With an average draft position of 29, anyone that drafted Victor Martinez probably felt like they were the catcher for the Riker’s Island softball team.  ADP, 29 — FPCP, 17.3

4. Travis Hafner - The pride of North Dakota remains Roger Maris and Angie Dickinson. You wanted a bit more from Pronk than 5 home runs and a .197 average. The best thing Hafner did all year was go on the DL the better part of the season.  If only Hafner would’ve dropped his big melon head on V-Mart in spring training, you could’ve avoided drafting either of them. ADP, 44 — FPCP, 17.7

3. David Ortiz - In 2008, Big Papi was like a big teddy bear of suck. He was drafted on average 17th and he gave you the value of a player drafted 227th. To quote the late great Curly Howard, “Yuck, yuck, yuck.” ADP, 17 — FPCP, 18.9

2. Troy Tulowitzki - I had a Polish friend growing up whose father would shovel snow in socks and flip-flops. Was it because he was impervious to cold or he didn’t own boots? I have no idea. It might have been the booze. Either way, I like to think it was because the Poles are hard-working and he was proving a point to his lazy American neighbors. With this season, Tulo disgraced himself and all of the Poles. ADP, 45 — FPCP 19.3

1. Carl Crawford - In May in one league, I traded Crawford for Braun. Phew. Crawford needs a good punch in the mouth for all of the fantasy teams he ruined this year. Somebody give Brett Myers a call. ADP, 15 — FPCP, 19.7

Monday night as I wrote the roundup, I was looking around my waiver wire for possible saves. I saw Taylor Buchholz and I began to think about how likely it would be for Fuentes to get traded. The Rockies are in a division that may only need a .500 record to win it. Why are they sellers? Holliday, Fuentes? I guess it could happen, but I don’t see it. Then I came across the crapfecta of Ayala, Hanrahan and Saul Rivera. Why couldn’t Rauch be traded? Because Chad Cordero was never traded those years the Nats floundered? Didn’t seem like enough of a reason. So I turned on my giant brain and decided Luis Ayala was going to be the next Nats closer. (Maybe you remember the last time I turned on my giant brain I killed Sydney Pollack.) Well, wouldn’t you know it, Rauch was traded and Ayala became the new closer– Zoinks! Okay, Ayala may not be the closer, but here’s my reasoning why he will be the guy. (Since I deduced this using my giant brain, you may not understand my logic. Feel free to skip ahead. Those with a heart condition or pregnant women should not try and follow along.) Ayala was the setup man and Hanrahan was pitching a few innings at a time. Crazy, right?! I know! Maybe Hanrahan does move into the closer role because he’s been better of late, but clubs don’t usually make decisions that make sense (Wolf goes to the Astros!). Neither guy (or Saul Rivera) should be invested in too heavily. Rauch nailed down only 2 saves this past month and 17 saves in almost 2/3 of the season. We could be looking at 3 guys splitting up 10 saves. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Shaun Marcum - He returned from his elbow injury and gave up six earned runs in 4 2/3. The good news is, he didn’t give up seven earned runs. I’ve been saying I didn’t want him anymore when he first went on the DL.

Mark Buehrle - 7.1 IP, 1 ER. This schmohawk joins Aaron Cook as a guy that I picked up in May and that I can’t believe I still have him on a bunch of teams.

Brad Hawpe - HR. Hawpe is hawt. *cue Rosco P. Coltrane laughter*

Adam Lind - 4-for-5, HR. In deep leagues, there’s a lot worse fliers you can take than Lind.

Clayton Kershaw - Not a good game, but I’d let him start a game at home before casting him off.

Brad Ziegler - 23 2/3 straight scoreless innings streak. According to Elias Sports Bureau, “Ziegler is the first pitcher with a scoreless streak over 20 IP that has a name similar to Ian Ziering.” (Actually, the Elias Sports Bureau didn’t say that, but it sounds like it. Here’s some more things that sound like the Elias Sports Bureau might have said them. “Last Wednesday was the first time in three years that five Elias Sports Bureau employees wore the color beige,” “Seventeen Elias Sports Bureau employees sneezed today for a new all-time high,” and “There’s no one more full of shit than Stephen Baldwin.”

Ubaldo Jimenez - 1 ER, CG. If you had the Rox to start him.

Josh Willingham - I still like him, but he’s been on my bench for a week now. He needs to pretend he’s a 30/.280 guy or I’m chucking him. You’ve been warned.

Denard Span - Span’s leading off and batting .341 as CarGo hits from the nine hole. (I could see myself being a big fan of Carlos Gomez over this winter as we prepare for 2009, but right now he’s overmatched.)

Kerry Wood - May not go on the DL after all. In other news, water is… not wet?

Freddy Sanchez - If you’re suffering through Ty Wiggington or some other schmohawk at MI, Freddy Sanchez is starting to get hot. Steals? Nah. Home runs? Not many, but he could hit .330 for a month.

Joe Blanton - What, you thought he’d be good in the NL? Wait until you see how well he is when pitching in his new home.

Nick Markakis - I am Sparkakis!

Rick VandenHurk - 5 IP, no hits and he still was pulled, what does that tell you about his control? He gave up 5 walks against 7 Ks. VandenHurk and Volstad sounds like a law firm of vampires.

Eric Byrnes - Transferred from the 15-day DL to the I’m-Not-Coming-Back-This-Year-But-I’m-Going-To-Pretend-I-Will List.

Alexis Rios - Hit his 6th HR. Man, what a busted season. If you don’t have him, you may not understand what a bullet you dodged. He has comparable numbers to Victorino, and The Flying Hawaiian was on the DL earlier in the year and he lost playing time to Werth. Incredible.

Duaner Sanchez - 3 ER without recording an out as Duaner made a strong case to never get the ball in the ninth.  I think Heilman gets the ball tomorrow if the Mets have the lead. Or the Mets put some of that numbing spray shizz on Wagner’s shoulder and send him out there.

Chris Davis - HR. Okay, maybe he doesn’t need to be benched when the Rangers aren’t in Arlington.

Randy Wolf - With this trade, I see no way the Astros don’t overtake the Reds and finish in fourth. Unless the Reds trade for Barry Zito. Then the race will be on!

Erik Bedard - After tossing the ball on Sunday, he landed on the MRI table-thingie. Guess what, ya’ll? Not a good sign. Or maybe the Mariners just want an excuse to shut him down for the year and they rigged a VW Bug to look like an MRI machine and they hired some extras to play the part of doctors. In a grand Shakespearan accent, “I did Uncle Vanya in the Park and I was the dog walker in “How to Lose a Guy in 10 Days.’”

Manny Ramirez and his brother from another, Aramis, are taking the summer off as planned. If we get in our “Way Back Machine,” we see back in December of ‘07 that I said to look away from Manny. This was before the reports that he was in the best shape of his life and the Sons of Sam Horn turned the media heat up on the hype. What did I say to that? Bologna.  If I may paraphrase myself, I basically said Manny’s Manny and he’s not changing his stripes for an extra two million on a contract. In addition to that, Manny could have a big World Series game and get the extra two million from HankenStein and go play in the Bronx. He knows that. So Manny may get that Xbox Live Clause in his new contract and not even do anything until October. I’m sure Big Papi and him have discussed this at length. Papi, “Manny, you know we can phone in the season and produce in the postseason and be hailed as the best ever clutch performers.” Manny, “Papi, sometimes I get the urge to spork Youk in the neck. Is that weird?” As for Aramis Ramirez, well, he’s in a similar boat, but not an altogether similar point in his career. Aramis could coast until the postseason and the Cubs should make it in a walk. Frankly, I feel like they should move the Cubs to the NL East and close up the Central for the summer, but that’s another story. So will Aramis coast? I’m not convinced. Aramis has proven he loves to hit when the chips have already been eaten (or fill-in some other mixed metaphor). Late last year, Aramis Ramirez knocked the cover off the ball and I could see it happening again. So my advice is Sell on Manny and Buy on Aramis — Ramirez that is. Anyway, here’s some more fantasy baseball players to Buy and Sell:

BUY

Masa Kobayashi - Joe Borowski is out. As I said yesterday in the forums, Kobayashi, Betancourt then Perez, in that order. Cleveland, as a team, has 14 saves on the year. That doesn’t mean they will only have fourteen on the other side of 81 games, but it could. Caveat Kobayashi, Betancourt and Perez.

J.R. Towles - Mentioned him yesterday. If you need a catcher, he’s on waivers in your mixed league. It’s a flier, people. Don’t drop Matt Holliday for him.

Scott Linebrink - Bobby Jenks is reporting soreness in his back. Could lead to nothing, could lead to a DL-stint — ready, set, vulture! You grab Linebrink because you can’t get enough saves, you greedy person you.

Chris Davis - I just wanna keep talking and talking and talking about Chris Davis, don’t you? Oh, mercy, mercy me. Does he have 50 home runs yet? I originally compared him to Dunn. Ain’t that apt? (BTW, “Ain’t that apt?” is the non-sequitur saying I’m putting on my first t-shirt line. If one of ya’ll steals it, so help me…)

Rickie Weeks - I believe in slow walks on the beach, especially in Wildwood, Point Pleasant or Belmar. I believe Hawaii offers Spam, shaved ice and not much else. I believe anything seasoned properly would be delicious, including dogshit. I believe in reading movie reviews after I’ve seen the movie. I believe Jamie Kennedy is a terrible person, but worse of all, unfunny. I believe the only day I wasn’t nostalgic for yesterday was the day I was born and, finally, I believe in Rickie Weeks.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia - Salty is catching more or less on most days and he hasn’t hit at all to his potential, but if you’re carrying Navarro still, you should be looking at him, because Saltimbocca can be tasty when he’s at the plate (<—-forced!).

SELL

Rich Harden - Not sure who you’re selling this guy to and he’s too good to drop, but the latest news from Harden’s camp (if he were, ya know, to have a camp) is that Harden’s going through a dead arm period and that’s why his fastball has been, um, less fast. (Isn’t it weird how his dead arm period is better than his injured arm period? You would think the opposite would be true. Or at least I would think it, because I just did.)

Eric Byrnes - Wasn’t that long ago that I told you to Buy. Well, the injury returned and now he might be gone for the season. Hopefully he can make it to Fox’s postseason broadcast team. *fingers sarcastically crossed*

Mark Buehrle - I’ve mentioned how I added him a month or so ago. He’s currently on the top of my “Most Likely to Get Dropped After He Gets Inevitably Beaten Badly” list.

Jeff Keppinger - I could’ve put Jerry Hairston Jr. there, but Keppinger’s name is more incendiary (Word of the Day). These guys seem like they’re falling into a time share. This hurts both of their value.

Clint Barmes - Deer meat sees your hot start and raises you a 4-for-21 slump and Omar Quintanilla.

Pedro Martinez - It’s with regret his name appears here. I loved Pedro. He was a triple threat — flat-out incredible pitcher, an entertaining interview subject and he carried a dwarf around with him. This… This Mets pitcher isn’t him.

Nate McLouth - Eric Karabell told you he would be the fantasy MVP. Seriously. I think ESPN even charges for this shizz. (I get it for free.) Right now, I picture Hater Bell rocking a Malcolm X hat and listening to Mobb Deep as he prepares to put Karabell on blast. Karabell, take these words and think ‘em through or the next rhyme I write might be about you…

Looks like Chipper Jones is headed to the DL. In other news, water is wet, taco diarrhea burns and astronaut ice cream is delicious. Couple of things spring to mind. First, steroids lead to injuries. Before 2004, Chipper played in at least 150 games for eight years in a row. Yes, that’s right. He wasn’t always injury-prone. It just feels that way. Why doesn’t anyone question Chipper about steroids? Is it because he’s white (or Caucasian for the PC gang…. Or posse, if gang’s too edgy for you)? Second, Chipper will challenge .400 and just barely qualify for the batting title. This will result in a bunch of crazy old coots (ala Buzz Bizzinger) coming out of the woodwork to say things like, “Hogwash! Williams had 150 more at-bats!” To this I say, I agree. I hope Chipper doesn’t hit .400. I hate that Bonds owns the home run record, that Titantic beat Star Wars for #1 box office and that Joey Chestnut beat Kobayashi. Third, Chipper seems racist to me. Just like Lance Berkman. This is completely unfounded. Just a gut call. I might even be held libel for saying it, but I’m partially insane, so there’s that. My craziness is why you’re here reading. If I were boring, I’d yawnstipate you and you’d move on. What does this mean for fantasy baseball? Nothing really. Just some things I needed to get off my chest. Anyway, here’s some things I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Roy Oswalt - Might be headed to the Disgraceful List a few months after he should’ve. A month or so ago, I said Oswalt would pitch through injury because that’s just how he’s built. (This site is easily searched so I’m going to leave it up to you guys to find that link. Trust me, I said it. I have a photographic memory for nonsense.) Oswalt’s not Chipper Jones, I’ll tell you that. He’ll keep pitching if he can. Since he came out of the game, my non-professional opinion is that Oswalt may hit the DL.

Chad Cordero - Out for the season. As far back as April 3rd (Yes, I found that link myself, smart ass.), I told you Rauch would get more saves and you should unload Cordero, whether you listened is on you. You do what you do; I do what I do and we meet somewhere in the middle. Mapquest it!

Juan Pierre - Hit the DL for the first time in his career. He’ll be out long enough to drop him in most leagues (4-6 weeks). The one guy who held Ethier this whole time just said this, “Yes!” Everyone else just said, “Whatever.”

Eric Byrnes - He aggravated his hamstring. (Or is it reaggravated? And if it’s aggravated then when does it become reaggravated? After the second aggravation? Third? This shizz will keep me up!) I told you to go after Byrnes, now that I see it will be a recurring injury, get out before you’re *pinkie to mouth* burned. Not worth it, trade him for 50 cents on the dollar.

Troy Percival - Wow, big night in fantasy baseball, right? Right. So he (re)aggravated his hamstring strain too. (Maybe… and this is a longshot, but bear with me…. Maybe Byrnes had a Percival voodoo doll and vice versa, but they made a pact to not use each other’s voodoo dolls. Then when Byrnes felt a tweak in his hamstring, he thought Percy betrayed him, so he went into his locker and stuck a needle in Percival’s voodoo doll hammy. Or not. I’m speculating.) Wheeler takes over for Percy until he returns.

Felix Hernandez - Right when the injury happened I said he’d be out at least 15 days. Everyone else said he’d make his next start. I called bullshit. Now he’s headed to the DL. Are you a doctor, Grey? No, I saw the injury and F-Her was carried off the field. That means DL for a last place team’s ace in June. Dur.

Brian Fuentes - Kazaam!

Josh Willingham - 2 HRs, been getting some “Would you get with this or would you get with that? I think you’ll get with this, because this is where it’s at” questions regarding Willingham. So here goes, Willingham over Thome, Swisher, Hermedia, anyone on the A’s, Headley, Bruce, Lyle Overbay, Chris Davis, Swisher, Per Djoos, Snyder, Billy Butler, Frenchy and Fred Lewis. Willingham not over Tulowitzki, Doumit, Kouzmanoff, Gordon, Dye, Parra, any closer currently getting saves and Corey Hart. This list was paid for by the committee to get Willingham on your team.

Mark DeRosa - 2 HRs, 6 RBIs and the start at third as Aramis took a family vacay. Must be something about the last name Ramirez because I could totally see Aramis and Manny getting along like two peas in an empanada.

Jhonny Peralta - 5-for-5, HR, 3 doubles, 3 RBIs, superflouous “H.”

Jim Thome - Hit another home run. I mentioned yesterday that he was getting picked up by me and he did.

Matt Thornton - Got the save yesterday instead of Jenks. Think it might have been just a matter of Jenks being overworked. I’m trying to get to the bottom of this. Stay tuned… (Or simply tell me what’s going on. That might be nice for a change.)

Joel Zumaya - Got the save in Jones’s stead. Just another case of the regular closer being overworked. Or is it? Yes, it seems that way. But it could mean Zumaya might get eight to ten saves from this point on just to “keep everyone fresh,” which is also known as  “not letting Jones blow too many games.”

Aaron Harang - 7 IP, 8 Ks, 3 ER, 1.14 WHIP. Now that looks like a Harang line. I’ll take that from now until October with a few wins mixed in.

Roy Halladay - Threw a four-hit, shutout against the Mariners. Jeffrey Loria, sick of trying to make the Marlins bad and failing, announced he would buy Seattle’s team, move them to Florida and call them the Marliners. First move: Rehire Bill Bavasi. Where did you go so terrifically wrong with Sexson that I went so horribly right with Jorge Cantu?

Dave Bush - Pimple-faced teenager runs in front of your car, “Watch out, Mister! Dave Bush is falling back to earth!” You stop short and Dave Bush falls in front of your car.

A few innings before Felix Hernandez was spiked pretty bad by Ricky from My So Called Life, he hit a grand slam off Johan Santana. (Grey, insert profound comment on how you can be on top of the world one moment and the next moment you’re limping off the field. Also lookup “profound” so you know what it means. –Rudy) The spiking looked like he also hurt his ankle, twisting it. I’d be very surprised if Hernandez avoids the DL. When Felix tried to take a warm up pitch after the incident, he nearly collapsed, then was helped off the field. Tough break for Felix Hernandez and his owners. I’d hope for only a 15-DL stint, I’d expect more. Also, prior to complaining, just think of the Mariners fans who now have no reason to watch any game. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Brandon Morrow - Will supposedly be available tomorrow. Yesterday Arthur Rhodes got the save. Don’t run out and sign Rhodes. Tomorrow’s Morrow. I love ya…nah, he isn’t worth quoting Annie.

Jeff Clement - (Another Mariners blurp! This is the biggest day in Seattle news since Stephen slapped Irene.) Stayed in really well against Johan. Not an easy task for a lefty. Almost had a double down the 1st base line, but he was robbed by Carlos Delgado.

J.J. Putz - (4 Mariners items! Can you tell it was a slow day in fantasy baseball?) It was announced that Putz would be back sometime in late July. Prediction, he’ll return to pitch poorly then he’ll complain of soreness and the Mariners, hoping he can come back in ‘09, will DL him for the remainder of the year.

Jo-Jo Reyes - Bobby Cox gave Jo-Jo a quick hook in the 3rd inning, perhaps suffering from bad flashbacks of Horacio Ramirez or the Alamo. As I mentioned yesterday about fifth starters, sometimes you gotta take some lumps. Also, Prince Fielder nearly went deep, which, obviously, would’ve made this much worse.

Ben Sheets - Threw his third complete game of the season. It’s as if the Brewers think that he’s predestined to be hurt by a certain date so they want to get everything they can get out of him before it happens. “Ben Sheets has only 6 more weeks to pitch.  Let’s make it count!”

Mike Cameron - I just traded him away, so of course he hit a home run yesterday.

Adam Dunn - Call it a hunch, but never underestimate the will of a player going against the team that traded him or, in this case, a GM who crapped all over him on local radio. Dunn’s about to go country crazy!

Eric Byrnes - Prior to the Red Sox game, the Diamondbacks activated Eric Byrnes from the DL.  This entailed letting him out of his body splint and dog cone that prevented Byrnes from reinjuring himself.  After 30 minutes of stop-and-start sprints and pats on the heads from teammates, he was ready to go.

Dan Haren - Meet the best pitcher (at least so far) for the Diamondbacks.  3 base runners in 7 IP now moves his ERA below 3.00 and his WHIP below 1.00.  We’ll see if Webb regains his throne by overcoming the dead arm and having his typically strong 2nd half or if Haren just has his normal subpar 2nd half.

Emmanuel Burriss - With Omar Vizquel hitting .171, there are reports out of the Bay Area that Burriss might take the starting job.  Mr. and Mrs. Poppadopolous are going to be so proud. Burriss is really fast so maybe he could deliver what Eugenio Velez promised this spring. Or not. You make the call!