Don’t yell at me! I own Carlos Santana and I know how awful he’s been! It makes sense that his name is Carlos Santana, because Carlos Santana looks like Edward James Olmos and the acne scars Olmos has are how deep Carlos Santana’s scarred my fantasy soul. Sometimes I wake at night in a cold sweat, frightened that Carlos Santana has found his way on all of my fantasy teams, only to realize it’s just a dream and I haven’t been sweating. Instead, I peed myself, so I fall back to sleep soundly. So, with that uplifting lead-in to this Buy, what do you sell to get Santana? A herpes blister and hope for a dead cat bounce? Yes, that would seem to be the case. Okay, enough hubbub on the tomfoolery, do I really want you to buy Santana? Yeah, I do. Let’s look at his 1st half vs. 2nd half last year. 1st half: 14 HRs, 37 RBIs, .207 average, 45.8% ground ball rate, and death threats for what he did to fantasy teams. The 2nd half last year: 13 HRs, 48 RBIs, .260 average in 16 less games than the 1st half. His ground balls went way down (not literally!) to 34.2% and his fly balls shot up (literally!). His hard contact went up, his Ks went down, his everything went up. Some thought that his 2nd half last year was a sign he was going to break out in April this year. Yeah, that didn’t happen, but he’s not old and I can’t imagine he’s going to stay this bad all year. This year’s 1st half of 9 HRs, .211, 44.8% GB rate isn’t the end of an era, but maybe about to be the end of his error. Pithy points! Anyway, here’s some more players to Buy or Sell this week in fantasy baseball:

Please, blog, may I have some more?

I love me a hot schmotato almost as much as I love me a hot Latina. [Jay’s Note: I prefer the angry Latina.] Yes, it is true, I love Latin women more than fantasy baseball, except this week, when I love me some Eddie Rosario. He’s been a warming hitter looking primed to have a break out sooner than later, and I’m betting my money on this week. I know he has nothing to do with Rosario Dawson but I’ll take any chance to look at her pics and this beautiful gif (I couldn’t put that in the article for fear Jay would of removed it). It’s crazy to think she started her career in Kids and how much of a game changer that flick was. Will Eddie R be a game changer for you this week? I like the chances for that to occur and if you keep reading I will do my best to convince you why I like him, but before I do that, one more Rosario Dawson clip for the road… okay maybe not, the Alexander clip is very NSFW, but you can look it up on your own.

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This is the Saves Ain’t Got No Face “eff the team managers” edition which will give me a chance to both vent and try to deflect blame for bad calls I’ve made.  Joe Maddon of the Cubs decided to go a different route on his closer situation by removing Hector Rondon from the role.  For like three days.  And I make the call that Pedro Strop had a good chance to take over as closer.  Eff Joe Maddon.  Then in Tampa (Joe Maddon’s old team.. coincidence??) the following sequence happened:  1. Brad Boxberger gets dinged, Kevin Jepsen becomes the interim closer, (arguably) leapfrogging Jake McGee in the process.  2. Boxberger came back, blew a save.  3. Jake McGee (seemingly) takes over as closer.  4. Kevin Jepsen notches a (random) save.  5. Brad Boxberger (seemingly) regains closer role.  As of Sunday, the last 15/30 days for Rays Saves is 2/4 for Jepsen, 3/3 for McGee, 3/6 for Boxberger.  Last week I claimed Jake McGee was the new closer.  He gets zero save attempts this week.  Keep reading folks because this is really just the beginning of the latest twist and turns which will leave you wanting to pull out your hair.  (Plus recommendations to follow…)

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What is not to love about Marlon Byrd? He is one of twenty-one hitters who have 49 homeruns over the past two seasons, and is on pace this year to hit over 20 bombs again. He has been on the DL since June 2nd and just came off this past Friday. I understand the batting average is something to be concerned with, but even if that’s your issue, he is still a donkey (the flying donkey to be exact), and donkeys are useful… and they are really darn useful in fantasy baseball. You rent them like a lady-friend on a trip to Vegas, and if they bring you some winnings, you keep them around a few days to give you a place to rest your hand. Now, like our friends in Vegas, you never keep them around any longer than your trip. Byrd could be a creep-to-own, so be prepared to hold if he comes out of the gate hot. But enough about Byrd, I’ll cover him below. It’s Fathers Day today, and being that my dad introduced me to the Yardbirds, I wouldn’t be me if I didn’t add some title-related links into the fold, as I know you enjoy it and I think it irks Jay.

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Between the trade of Mark Trumbo and the recent injury to Ender Inciarte, there was speculation that Peter O’Brien would get a call to the majors. The Diamondbacks didn’t cooperate – opting instead to promote Danny Dorn. That makes sense considering Dorn is on the 40-man roster and O’Brien is not. O’Brien, who started the year at catcher and still has eligibility there in most fantasy leagues, recently switched to the outfield and is having a great season with the bat in Triple-A. So it’s no surprise that D-Backs fans and fantasy players were hoping to see him promoted to the bigs when the news broke that Inciarte would be out for at least a couple of weeks. But, well, it didn’t happen. So the question now becomes when will we see O’Brien in the majors and will he be worth our time once he arrives? Let’s take a look in this week’s profile…

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The election for the Sons of Sam Horn government would be an ever-evolving oligarchy. David Ortiz (1-for-3) would be the honorary Papi emeritus, Dustin Pedroia would be the Secretary of Sparky Anklebiters, Alejandro De Aza (2-for-4, 1 run, 3 RBIs) would be a stunt double in case of an assassination attempt, Pablo Sandoval (2-for-4, 2 runs) would be the ambassador to the International House of Pancakes, Wade Miley (6 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 7 baserunners, 8 Ks, ERA at 4.88) would be in charge of the Armed Farces and the election for president would be a popularity contest between Brock Holt (4-for-5, 2 runs, 2 RBIs and his 2nd homer, hitting .309) and Mookie Betts (3-for-5, 2 runs, 1 RBI) after Jackie Bradley Jr. was told to take a walk. For a half season last year, Holt hit .327 with three homers and six steals. So, he’s done this over an extended period of time before, and yesterday was the first day the Red Sox really have looked themselves all year, so I highly doubt Holt will fall much lower than the two hole in the lineup any time soon. If he’s available in your league, I’d definitely grab him. Brock Holt! Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

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There was some speculation that the Mets were considering moving Noah Syndergaard (6 IP, 1 ER, 4 baserunners, 11 Ks) to the bullpen and bringing up Steven Matz. The NY Post seemed to believe the Mets were talking about it, at least. It could be that a NY Post reporter, hiding in their usual spot inside a Mets equipment broom closet with a Solo cup pressed to the door, overheard, “Hey, should we move Noah to the bullpen and bring up Matz?” “Maybe, but I’m the front office intern and you’re the ticket taker from Gate 3C so I’m not sure our opinion matters.” “Or is that Matzers?” Then they laughed, and the NY Post reporter shot off an article detailing the discussion, but left off the sources. More respected Mets journalists thought Syndergaard wouldn’t go to the bullpen, and Dillon Gee would be designated for assignment. Gee, guess who was right. Right now, Matz has a 2.30 ERA and 9.3 K/9 in Triple-A in 78 1/3 IP. Those numbers are great, fabulous, adjective, but they get better. He’s pitching in the PCL, which is like hitting in an anti-gravity chamber with an aluminum bat. What makes Matz so damn desirable is he can strikeout out hitters and has good control. That’s the one-two punch of “Let me put hearts on my Trapper Keeper.” The Mets are saying Matz will come up around July 1st, but I wouldn’t be shocked if he’s called up for this weekend, so I’d stash him right now. Or if you have a DeLorean, stash him yesterday. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

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Razzball Exclusive! The Twins were seen on Saturday at the Factory Outlet Mall in St. Paul, shopping for an outfielder. Unhappy with the selection — everything was odd-sized or someone they had called up and sent down numerous times — they headed back to the car, deciding to go on to the Duluth Shop ‘n Zoo, a place, contrary to the name, that doesn’t sell animals. When they got back to the car, they realized they forgot their change purse in the mall. They raced back, but it was too late; it was gone. Frustrated and angry, they asked to use Spencer Gifts’ phone because they didn’t want to incur long distance charges on their own. Fed up and at their breaking point, they called up Byron Buxton, while also spotting a gag gift, fake vomit, that they shoplifted, figuring they can use it to play shortstop. Here’s what Prospect Mike said this offseason, “Buxton is ranked numero uno on my Top 50 fantasy prospects list, and it’s thanks to his ability to fill all five roto categories. He might be the closest thing we have in the minors right now to a first round fantasy talent with the power to hit 20 homers, the speed to swipe 30+ bags, and the ability to hit for a high average. Injuries limited him to 137 plate appearances in 2014, but that shouldn’t stop the 21-year-old from seeing the majors later this season. The ceiling is a perennial All-Star outfielder and a top ten fantasy player overall. In short, he’s wonderful and Grey’s terrible.” Oh, man, c’mon! In Double-A this year, Buxton had six homers, 20 steals (in only 59 games!) and was hitting .283. At points during this season, Mike has compared him to Carlos Gomez. That sounds like an apt comparison, which isn’t the same as roomier with two bathrooms. That’s an Apt. comparison. You should grab him in every league. Yes, even that 10 team league, where it’s you playing against nine of your email aliases. By the way, I can’t believe you’re losing to Imtoosexyforthisemail@aol.com. Anyway, here’s what else I saw this weekend in fantasy baseball:

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When looking up something with bore in it to link this title to a video, I came across the classic (to me) Clint Eastwood flick Heartbreak Ridge. Oh how I love this movie… so many classic lines that I used as a child and still use to this day. Hell, some are even good for fantasy. Let me see a show of hands, who has seen clusterf**k used on one of these pages? Oh that’s right, we are over the net and I can’t see you. I’ll take my word for it. What gunny Highway taught us besides the CF concept is how to talk to the police, how to greet an old friend, how to be a smart ass, and how to deal with fat guys in prison. Hopefully you never have to deal with the latter. You might be asking yourself, what this has to do with the creeper and the top 100 hitters, and it has everything to do with it. In the movie, he presses his credo on his men to improvise, adapt, overcome. That is what we have to do, because offensively it has been a real clusterf**k this year with so many hitters getting hurt and so many going through streaks like a hairdresser in cosmetology school. Ummm, I might have to explain that last one. When I was in junior college, I was an automotive major and right next to us were all the cosmetology classes. We mingled a lot with the ladies over there, but it was really hard to keep track with who was who, because they would always change their hair color and streaks. Anythehoo, I used to build engines and now I build rosters!

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Last week I implored you to consider your options in selling Steven Souza, a player who seemed to be at his peak at that time.  Yes, I told you to consider moving a player that has been stellar so far.  The thing is, what a player’s done doesn’t really move me.  All I care about is what a player is going to do.  That means past stats are only important insofar as they predict future stats.  So when I see that a player has hit 15 home runs so far, or stolen 12 bases so far, all I really care about is to what degree is that level of production sustainable.  I came to the “sell” conclusion for Steven Souza by using peripheral statstics, primarily his HR/FB% (unsustainable) and K% (too high and likely to not go down much).  Going back to a May 4th post, I mentioned  offhand that Jake Marisnick was a sell high.  His AVG/SLG at the time it was published: .382/.632.  His AVG/SLG since that time: .172/.242.  That’s not to say I’m a soothsayer.  Or to say that’s precisely how regression to the mean works.  So why did that happen?  Because baseball.  But I do think it’s an example of why we, excepting those times when peripheral stats suggest otherwise, should trust the projections and use the peripheral stats they are based on.

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