Fantasy Baseball Advice

Ozzie said that Sergio Santos would be the closer vs. righties.  That means Santos is just the closer closer.  Or as close to it as we’re gonna get.  I don’t know how much I believe this.  Just the other day Ozzie said the White Sox had the best bullpen in the American League.  And he didn’t add “in opposite world,” at the end of the sentence.  I think Sale and Thornton are still in the mix, but it’s old school to go righty vs. righty and maybe Ozzie just wants to kick a little something for the old G’s.  If Sergio Santos can save games for the next week as well as he designs jeans, he could run with the job.  It’s worth the flyer, ya’ll!  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Philip Humber – 7 IP, 0 ER, 3 baserunners, 5 Ks.  Was a terrific start.  Also, he had a 4.42 ERA coming into the game and his stuff would have him in middle relief if Peavy were healthy.

Albert Pujols – Didn’t need anything for his hamstring strain and could be ready to go on Tuesday.  Or as that day will forever be called in St. Louis, Thanktheeffinlordday.

Logan Morrison – Had his cast removed and should be able to return when his DL stint ends.  Logan will be putting his cast on eBay.  I hope it fetches more than my VHS copy of Midnight Madness, that awesome 80′s Michael J. Fox movie where they go on a scavenger hunt.  Can’t believe someone stole that from me for $1.99.  It’s a rarity!

Chris Coghlan – 3-for-4, 3 Runs, 2 RBIs and 2 homers yesterday, now has 3 homers in the last four games.  Hopefully he doesn’t smash a whipped cream pie into his own face.

Brian Sanches – Got his 3rd vulture win yesterday.  Mujica has 2 wins.  Mike Dunn has a vulture win.  Know how many the Razzball-owned Clay Hensley has?  Rhymes with “Why doesn’t he have one?” and it’s spelled none.

Brandon Wood – 1-for-4, 2 RBIs as he started in place of Pedro Alvarez vs. a lefty.  That’s a good move to cause me to claw my eyes out.  Thanks, Pittsburgh!

Chris Narveson – 2 1/3 IP, 7 ER.  Ouch.  Wait, what?  Oh.  Ouch!

Colby Lewis – 5 IP, 6 ER, 11 baserunners, 3 Ks, now has an ERA of 6.95.  To preemptively answer the inevitable Lewis comment, I don’t know what you should do because I wouldn’t have drafted him.

Jose Bautista – Has he got his 50th homer again yet?  Stupid Bautista making me look stupid.

Matt Garza – 6 IP, 1 ER, 4 baserunners, 7 Ks and 4 unearned runs for the always ulcer-inducing ticker shock.

Kosuke Fukudome – 5-for-5, hitting .478 on the year.  He’s always been an April hitter.  That gives you four more days before the clock strikes crap.

Darwin Barney – Hit his first homer as his owners sang, “I love you, you love me.”

Kendrys Morales – Not getting “full explosion” with his runs.  Sounds like he should eat more Mexican food.

Ryan Zimmerman – Given the okay to resume some baseball activities.  Like spitting and scratching himself.

Willie Bloomquist – Sent to the 15-day DL with a strained hamstring.  Chief Justice Ryan Roberts must’ve Gillooly’d him with a gavel.

Brad Emaus – To the Rockies.  Yeah, just what they need, another second baseman.

Jay Bruce – Bruuuuuuce!

Ian Kennedy – After that blip on the radar two weeks ago, it looks like the Kennedy administration is back to kissing babies and glad-handing.

A.J. Burnett – 8 IP, 1 ER, 5 baserunners, 2 Ks.  Someone asked in the comments yesterday what it would take for me to trust Burnett.  He had a 1.46 WHIP and 4.37 ERA going into last night’s game.  Last April, he had a 2.43 ERA and ended the year with a 5.26.  This is someone I have to trust?

Brett Gardner – 0-for-2, hitting .136 on the year.  Yahoo’s Pianowski traded me Gardner yesterday for The Lisper’s Nightmare.  I figure Gardner has to come around…Okay, he doesn’t have to, but should and trading for him with Seth Smith, a fantasy fifth outfielder, seems like a decent gamble.  Now tell me what a moron I am.

Phil Hughes – Had a setback in his rehab.  Hughes and his right arm had a moment as the following song played in the background, “I f**ked you once, I f**ked you twice.  I won’t let a 92 MPH heater go at any price.”

Jerry Sands – 3-for-4 with his 2nd steal for his first game in one our team’s lineups.  Hey, we popped our Jerry!

Jonathan Broxton – Blew his first save.  Huh?!  He only has one blown save?  That’s crazy talk.  He hasn’t pitched well in seven months.  And this blown save was due to an error.  If Kuo is on waivers, I’d grab him; he should be back by the end of the week.

Juan Uribe – Missed the entire weekend and out on Monday too.  On a completely unrelated note, how does someone who is bedridden because they are so fat keep eating?  Stop bringing them food!

Don Mattingly – A recent winning streak had Donnie Baseball refusing to shave his goatee.  Andre Ethier had also paused his Brazilian waxing routine.

Elijah Dukes – Arrested for driving with a suspended license.  Elijah said, “I had to get to the Katz’s house before the end of seder!”

Put on the reverse lights to three weeks ago when Huston Street experienced tightness in his shoulder while playing catch.  Was shutdown for three weeks.  Yesterday, Street went to play catch and felt the same tightness.  He’ll now miss the start of the season.  Street’s resilience is akin to the elasticity on your favorite pair of boxers from the mid-90s.  “Hey, my shoulder will be just fine in three weeks!  Give me the ball, Mr. Apodaca!”  Yeah, and your boxers just fell to your ankles when you were getting the mail and now your neighbors are calling the cops and you’re going to have to register your address with the authorities.  I’d grab Franklin Morales or Manny Corpas, in that order.  If you have room, I’d grab both because, as previously alluded to — yo, I’m alluding and shizz! — Street’s the kind of knucklehead to miss three months with this sorta thing.  “C’mon, Mr. Apodaca, I’m ready… Aw, shucks, my arm just fell off.”  Anyway, here’s some more fantasy baseball news:

Elijah Dukes – This post was thisclose to being titled, “Put Down Your Dukes.”  Alas, the Street’s broke (<– economist pun +1).  Dukes was released by the Nats.  After Dukes heard the news, reports suggest the Nats car service couldn’t find anyone to drive Dukes home from the stadium.  Roll up the window! Um, you just smashed it with your bat.  I said, roll it up! Dukes will land somewhere, but it’s no concern of yours until he does.

Stephen Strasburg – Headed to the minors to start the season.  I guess the Nats sold as many tickets as they could to April and May games, then they pulled the trigger that I thought would be pulled all along.  Strasburg will be back in June or so.  In mixed leagues, you can stash if you want, but remember rookie pitchers can roofie you.

John Smoltz – Retired to be a TBS analyst.  George Lopez better watch out!

Unlike our last team, Rudy and I co-drafted this team.  So for every bad pick, Rudy and I have someone to blame.  Neither will take it personal.  We managed to work Elijah Dukes onto this team, who’s a total dwyck.  This is a 20 team, 5×5, roto league and still is, so we have more arms than Bruce Willis.  Get well soon, Guru!  The team breaks down like this:  Catcher, 1st Baseman, 2nd Baseman, 3rd Baseman, Shortstop, 3 Outfielders, Utility, 2 SPs, 2 RPs, 3 Ps and a 4 man bench.  Anyway, here’s a 2010 fantasy baseball team and some thoughts from the draft:

Round 1 – Ryan Braun – We skipped A-Rod and Utley.  Our thought process went like this.  With only one position player for each position, 3 outfielders and one utility man, we figured outfielders would make up the majority of the teams’ Utility spots and might even end up in the bench spots.  So you’re looking at drafting about 100 outfielders vs. 20 3rd basemen, 20 2nd basemen, etc.  Since there was no MI or CI, we figured there wouldn’t be many teams that had more than one 3rd baseman or 2nd baseman, etc. before we drafted one.

Round 2 – Lance Berkman – It was between him and Kendry Morales.  We decided to go with a guy who we felt was slightly more boring, but safer.  Safer helps when there’s absolutely no one on waivers.

Round 3/4 – Felix Hernandez/Cliff Lee – We also figured there would be a lot of pitchers drafted, since each team needed at least 5 starters.  In a 20 team league, two top starters, as we have, should easily get us a near-top finish in 3 of 5 pitching categories.  (WHIP, ERA and Ks.  There’s no accounting for Wins, but we should do okay there too.)  Now we just needed to take a few flier starters later on.

Round 5 – Gordon Beckham – This is Rudy and I on IM while drafting.  Me, “C’mon, let’s take some upside!”  Him, “You and your upside.  We need safe guys who will produce.”  Me, “Our team looks like a contender… In 2006.  We need upside!”  Him, “You want Beckham?”  Me, “Please.”

Round 6 – Johnny Damon – Hold the above dialogue about Gordon Beckham in the mirror.

Round 12 – Alcides Escobar – Rudy and I both tend to punt shortstop (if we don’t get Hanley) and try to get steals from our shorstop later on.  If I remember correctly, we had Everth Cabrera and Alcides to choose from and we needed steals.  Alcides seems more likely to hit at the top of the order for more ABs than EverCab.  Honestly, these guys are such tomato-tomahto at this point, in another draft tomorrow I might go with EverCab.  To read further, Alcides Escobar sleeper post.

Round 13 – Chase Headley – I tried for Snider, but Rudy wasn’t having it.  Rudy tried for Conor Jackson; I wasn’t having it.  We settled for Headley.  If Headley were on any team other than the Padres, he would’ve received his own sleeper post.  Then again, maybe he has a sleeper post and I’ve forgotten.  Damn, Headley, you inspire excitement!

Round 14 – Kelly Johnson – He’ll be solid on Runs, fair on average, hit 15 homers and 10 steals.  Explain to me how Yunel’s better than him one hundred picks earlier.  Go ahead, I’ll wait.  *rests head in hand, taps finger, yawns*  Okay, then.

Round 15 – Casey McGehee – Least favorite pick of the draft.  I really think McGehee ends up back on the bench or in a utility role for the Brewers.  I don’t see him approaching last year’s numbers.  I think Gamel, who might not even start the year with the Brewers, will outproduce McGehee on the year.  Anyway, it was the 283rd pick of the draft and we needed some flexibility.

Round 16 – Clayton Richard – A Padres pitcher with a near 7 K/9 and projected to have a 4 ERA at pick 318?  No problem there for me.

Round 17 – Elijah Dukes – Some other guys taken this round were:  Jeff Weaver, Mike Adams, Chris Getz, Pineiro, Cahill, Maicer Izturis and Luke Scott.  To answer your question, no Chumlee wasn’t drafting for the guy who took Weaver.  That was autodrafted.  The rest of those guys I believe were present.  I always preach not to take bench hitters, but that’s for 10 team, 12 team… 14 team… Maybe in 16 team leagues… In a 20 team league, it’s tumbleweeds on waivers.

Round 19 – Jeff Clement – A’la Buddy from Cake Boss, “Now that’s how you punt catcher!”

Round 20 – Gaby Sanchez – We were looking at Kris Medlen and Carlos Santana but both were scooped right before our pick.  As for Gaby, he (she?) is an upside pick that is at the do or die stage of his (her?) career.  If he (she?) does, this could be our best value pick.

Overall – When we ran the numbers, we’re in a three-way first place tie in the preseason standings with 131 Points.  We didn’t necessarily go into the draft wanting to dominate pitching vs. hitting, but Rudy ran the Point Shares for the league and there were much better values for pitching.  To come out of a 20-team league with two of the top 10 pitchers in baseball (F-Her and Cliff Lee) is a huge advantage — one that would be impossible to attain with just 2 hitters.  Plus, we got Filthy Sanchez, a Johnson and Headley. What’s not to love?

With more outfielders than G-Unit feuds, we take it to the top 60 outfielders for 2010 fantasy baseball.  These guys may seem like they’re not worth the effort, but remember last year Adam Jones, Nelson Cruz and Justin Upton were found here.  As with the other 2010 fantasy baseball rankings, where tiers start and stop are mentioned and my projections.  Anyway, here’s the top 60 outfielders for 2010 fantasy baseball:

41. Michael Cuddyer – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here to Kubel.  I call this tier, “Yawnstipating power outfielders.”  Cuddyer probably could’ve/should’ve/Elliott Gould’ve ranked higher than this, but I think he had a career year that won’t be repeated.  A career year that I went over in the top 20 1st basemen for 2010 fantasy baseball, where you’ll also find his projections.

42. Brad Hawpe – Maybe it’s just me but Brad Hawpe screams a platoon player to me.  A platoon player that only plays the 1st half of the year? Ah, cute, random italicized voice.  No, he shouldn’t play vs. lefties.  Also, watch out if he’s shipped out of Coors.  (An idea that has me foaming at the mouth.  Well, that and my Diet Coke and Mentos diet.)  2010 Projections:  70/25/85/.280

43. Jason Kubel – I liked Kubel going into 2009.  He’s more or less the same this year, but the only difference is how people are perceiving him.  Kubel had value when he was a last round draft pick.  There’s no value when you have to draft him like he’s actually going to stay on your team.  Trust me, he won’t.  2010 Projections:  70/25/85/.285

44. Vernon Wells – He had wrist surgery in November.  Blech.  I’m really only ranking him because I don’t want people to ask me if I forgot him.  I didn’t, but you should.  2010 Projections:  65/17/75/.265/10

45. Corey Hart – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here to Snider.  I call this tier, “Back into outfielders that I would draft.”  Hart will be 28 in March and 2009 was a lost season; he battled injuries for almost two months.  His declining HR/FB is cause for some alarm, so he doesn’t come without risk.  But when you’re choosing between Kubel or Wells or Hart, I trust you’ll make the right choice.  2010 Projections:  75/20/80/.260/17

46. Dexter Fowler – I went over my Fowler fantasy already.  2010 Projections:  85/10/55/.285/35

47. Colby Rasmus – I went over him in a Colby Rasmus sleeper post.  2010 Projections:  85/17/65/.265/14

48. Travis Snider – I’m randy on Travis.  As long as the Blue Jays don’t Kemp him all season and move him up the order then he could be in for a huge breakout.  There was also a Travis Snider sleeper post.  2010 Projections:  70/27/85/.265/3

49. Drew Stubbs – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here to Brantley.  I call this tier, “Upside speed picks to make Ron LeFlore proud.”  I’ll like Stubbs more when he definitely has the job in center.  Though, even with the job, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him lose time to other outfielders, especially if Taveras is still there.  Stubbs also has a problem with Ks.  2010 Projections:  80/7/50/.255/35

50. Michael Brantley – It’s the Riverdance guy!  This ranking is really contingent on playing time and the speed he offers.  Don’t expect much else.  2010 Projections: 55/5/65/.275/30

51. Elijah Dukes – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here to The Big FraGu.  I call this tier, “Your back’s against the wall and you really need upside.” Last year was the first time in his career that Dukes didn’t have any trouble with the law.  He also didn’t hit.  Let’s hope in 2010 he catches manslaughter charges and hits 25 homers.  2010 Projections:  75/17/80/.270/15 <– optimistic but whatever

52. Chase Headley - I like him way better at 3rd base.  In fact, I already went over him there at the top 20 3rd basemen for 2010 fantasy baseball post.

53. Chris Coghlan – Looking at Coghlan’s numbers, he looks like a cheap Denard Dawg.  That’s neither a compliment nor an insult.  To put that in overused slang terms, it is what it is.  Coghlan just needs to show more of that speed he showed in the minors.  Would I want Coghlan in my outfield?  Not unless I had a lot of speed and power on my team and felt I needed average and Runs.  2010 Projections:  100/10/55/.310/15

54. Franklin Gutierrez – The Big FraGu probably gets more pub on Razzball than he should because of his most excellent nickname.  His ceiling is what he did last year, but he could do it again.  2010 Projections:  60/15/75/.270/13

55. Carlos Guillen – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here to Mags.  I call this tier, “Old guys with no upside.”  Listen — or read as the case probably is — a lot of these guys will probably outperform some of the guys above, but that doesn’t mean I’d necessarily want them on all teams.  I tend to go for steady performers in the early slots of the draft, then I take fliers later on.  But if you have an outfield of, say, Justin Upton and Adam Jones, I could see taking Carlos Guillen to balance upside with stability.  As for Guillen, he was injury-prone when he was young.  Now he’s 35 years old.  Oy.  2010 Projections:  75/15/70/.285/6

56. Ryan Ludwick – Wait, wasn’t Ludwick in a promising tier last year? Yeah, and now he’s  in an over-the-hill one.  2010 Projections:  60/24/85/.270/3

57. J.D. Drew – He’s actually stayed relatively healthy recently and the numbers have been pretty yawnstipating.  Hopefully, his brother, Stephen, can step it up Michael Voltaggio-style and help Mother Drew choose a favorite.  2010 Projections:  75/20/85/.275

58. Milton Bradley – He has the inverse Elijah Dukes thing going on.  When he’s good, he’s good, when he’s bad, he’s so bad.  (<–That would mean the exact opposite if you were to hear it in an R&B song.)  2010 Projections:  65/16/70/.280/5

59. Mike Cameron – Went over Mike Cameron for fantasy when he was signed by the Sawx.  2010 Projections:  70/20/85/.245/14

60. Magglio Ordonez – You can pretty much tell how stodgy a fantasy baseball site is by where they rank Magglio.  CBS has him 49th.  Barring his insane BABIP year of ’07, he hasn’t really been great since 2002 and now has been below average and down right bad the last two years, respectively.  He’s AARP Mags.  2010 Projections:  75/15/95/.310

Jake Peavy is due back August 28th.  Member when I told you to drop him?  Yeah, that was so two months ago.  We’re in August, check your Mr. Winkle calender.  It’s a brand new day, Sting.  We gotta update you when you you have to pick him up, too?  (That’s a Royal we since this is just me.  Rudy’s in Prague doing spy business.  Ooh, I’m a spy, no time for Razzball for two weeks. Okay, Rudy… Or as I shall call you, Bill Clinton.)  So what can we expect of Jake Peavy when he returns?  Dominance in 30 minutes or less?  Probably not.  I’d put his line at 7 starts, a 4 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP with good Ks.  He’s dealing with a tougher league, but he’s also dealing with guys who don’t know him as well, though he’s also dealing with a shizzy ballpark, unless you’re Gavin Floyd. — Recently overheard convo between Buehrle and Danks, “If I’m not pitching well, and you’re not pitching well.  Who’s pitching well?”  “Uh-oh, Gavin Floyd!”  — With all of the unknown factors happening right now with Peavy — Will he return?  Will he be good? Will his robot foot hold up? — It’s worth a flier to grab him because his price tag is way below what he can give you.  Just don’t bet too heavily on him.  He may have a setback and not show up until October.  Anyway, here’s some more players to buy or sell this week in fantasy baseball:

BUY

Will Venable – Don’t cha love Padres hitters?  They’re like other team’s hitters without the messy HRs, RBIs and Runs to worry about.  Venable’s been hot.  What, you don’t like hot?  I expect you’re going to want to drop Venable by the middle of August, but worth a week grab. (I used to try for the “weak grab” back in college.  The girls would retaliate with the “strong slap.”  Good times!)

Ty Wigginton – From August 1st to August 30th, give Wiggy one more chance.

Jim Johnson – Sure would be nice to see him get a save so we know it’s even him I should be touting.  I mean, I’m pretty sure it is, but ya never know.  I’d also be holding Danys Baez too, just in case.

Alex Gordon – Hitting near .300 since his return and he just hit his first homer since April 15th.  How’s dem apples?!  Yeah, not very delicious.  But if you’re hurting at CI, you can do worse.  Maybe!

Casey McGehee – Casey McGehee stars in, “The MI That Won’t Go Away,” with Claude Rains.  Razzball’s Buy/Sell’s going all noir on yo’ ass!  <– You might remember that line from MC Dark Shadows’s most famous song, “Fred MacMurray’s Macking Your Wife.”

Rajai Davis – SAGNOF!  Oh, and not just any SAGNOF.  We’re talking Bourn-type numbers in a very affordable off-waivers price tag.  It’s a steals for clunkers-type deal.

Asdrubal Cabrera – 2 homers and over .400 in his last seven games.  When I say, As… You say, Drubal…  As… Drubal… As… Drubal… As… You got it.

Neftali Feliz – Guy’s sick, but not sick as in ill, but sick as in healthy.  But he’s still just a middle reliever, so I don’t suggest you grab him in every league, but if you need a little relief — hehe — go for it.

Elijah Dukes – If he has a solid final two months, prepare yourself for every fantasy site telling you he’s a sleeper next year, until he’s no longer a sleeper.  Cust kayin’.

Matt Lindstrom – We now begin our portion of the program of middle relievers that may be closing by this time next week.

Mike Gonzalez – Soriano could lose the job any second now.

Yusmeiro Petit – Show me a -eiro, named Busta!  What, no LONS fans in the Razzpound?  Maybe Yusmeiro took the -eiro power from Pineiro, maybe he gets shelled next time out like the latter -eiro.  In certain leagues, I’d gamble on Petit (namely H2H ones), but keep your caveats in check.

Ryan Roberts – Johnny, who’s the MI schmohawk behind door number three?  Ryan Roberts!!!  The crowd looks around, “Should we cheer?”  One guy stands up and screams, “I want Clint Barmes to get hot again!”  With the help of her granddaughter, an older woman stands, “You and your (bleeping) Barmes!  Shut the *bleep* up!”  A chair flies.  A melee ensues.

SELL

Tom Gorzelanny – Don’t let a Cubs fan get in your ear telling you they’ve stumbled on something with Gorzelanny.  His solid game was vs. the Reds.  Gorzelanny needs to do it for another month before I consider owning him next year.

Randy Wells – Had a 120 IP last year, and he’s already at 120 this year with the minors and majors combined.  This has nothing to do with his stuff, but the Cubs should start limiting his innings/skipping his starts soon.  Lesser Known Fact of the Day:  His middle name is David.

Jarrod Washburn – I’m pretty sure his ESPN ownership numbers and his suddenly poor pitching are directly related.  He gets over 50% owned, he gets dusted like Tom Joad.

Gordon Beckham – Let’s get it out of the way right off the bat, I don’t think you should trade him for a bottle of Mad Dog 20/20.  I like Beckham.  I think he can be solid.  But here’s the thing, CBS wrote a cover story on him, ESPN gave him some pub….  (Bee tee dubya, I was the first one to go for the side of the barn title of, Buy It Like Beckham.  Since then, I’ve seen Hit It… Break In… and Rake It…  Just remember who’s setting the trends on layup titles.  Also, take a second and look at that Buy/Sell link.  I could sit here and tell you the numbers Beckham’s done since July 3rd, but I’ll let your eyes dance through those stats on your own time.)  People are starting to realize how good Beckham’s been in the last month plus (over .400, 4 homers, 3 steals).  In one year leagues, has he been that much better than, say, Asdrubal Cabrera?  No, not really.  Gordon Beckham will be one of my favorites for next year, but this year, he’s still just a rookie trying to get his swerve on while hitting the slurve.  If someone overvalues Beckham, fleece ‘em, North Face.