Fantasy Baseball Advice

We finish off the infield with the top 20 3rd basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball.  The 2012 fantasy baseball rankings from shallowest to deepest go shortstops, third basemen, catchers, 2nd basemen then 1st basemen.  That’s right, I think the catchers and 2nd basemen are deeper than the 3rd basemen.  3rd base gets the gas face.  In 2009, I punted 3rd base for Mark Reynolds late.  Worked out fine.  In 2010, I punted 3rd base for Ian Stewart late.  Didn’t work out fine.  In 2011, I really wanted a top 3rd baseman and punted Jose Bautista while targeting Pedro Alvarez, Ryan Zimmerman and David Wright, which taught me a valuable lesson.  I’m a moron.  (A very hurtful lesson, mind you.)  As with other top 20 rankings, I list where I see tiers beginning and ending and my projections.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 3rd basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball:

1. Jose Bautista – His projections can be found at the top 10 for 2012 fantasy baseball.

2. Evan Longoria – His projections can be found at the top 10 for 2012 fantasy baseball.

3. David Wright – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Reynolds.  I call this tier, “We’re too early in a top 20 for question marks.  So why are there so many question marks?”  Honestly, how many times can we go to this Wright well?  The Wright well hasn’t paid whividends in a whery, whery whong time.  Stupid Elmer Fudd voice in my head.  The one non-scientific stat we have to look at is how he’s alternated good power years with bad ones and in 2012 we’re due for a good one.  Yeah, that’s so non-scientific it’s kinda silly.  The better news is The Great Wall of Flushing is coming down and in.  That’s definitely a cheaper way to acquire offense than signing Pujols or Fielder and more legal than accidentally bumping into players with a steroid needle.  How much the new dimensions will actually affect Wright’s power is threefold.  First fold, his “Just Enough” homers could increase.  Second fold, the park’s size may have got in his head and psychologically he may feel more confident about hitting at Metco and end up hitting more homers.  Third fold, there’s no third fold.  Who ever heard of a third fold?  2012 Projections:  85/24/100/.290/15

4. Adrian Beltre – Great lineup, great ballpark, one man who they call “The Guy Who Brings Them Towels In The Locker Room” sneezes and the whole team goes down with the flu for 15 days.  Yeah, I’m not sure why, but no one on the Rangers gets injured by themselves.  They’re like dominos.  Nelson Cruz goes down, then there goes Hamilton, there goes Kinsler, there goes Beltre… It’s a shame to blame one man but The Guy Who Brings Them Towels In The Locker Room does have shifty eyes.  2012 Projections:  75/28/100/.280/3

5. Pablo Sandoval – After wrestling to lose weight and change his name to Sandrectangle, Pablo embraced his girth and hit 23 homers last year.  Still this guy’s big question mark is where does he find pants that fit him?  Oh, and is the power for real?  It looks like it is plus or minus 2 homers from the 23 last year.  Maybe he can pass his cure of blimpotence over to Billy Butler.  Also, similarly to Butler, Sandoval’s got a way with the good average.  After a flukey injury sidelined him last year expect a nice step forward.  2012 Projections:  80/27/95/.320/3

6. Ryan Zimmerman – In my special no-no area, I have a tingling sensation that Zimmerman’s about to have a huge year.  He’s 27, an age when hitters really hit their prime, and he’s proven before that he can hit 30+ homers if he stays healthy.  Mummify him in bubble wrap and send him out to take grounders!  2012 Projections:  80/27/100/.290/5

7. Brett Lawrie – Yeah, I ranked him pretty high.  We’re going to talk about two hypothetical scenarios.  First scenario has you drafting Lawrie before your leaguemates.  All your leaguemates groan, they all wanted him.  Lawrie starts off the season slow and people are glad they didn’t draft him.  (Or he starts off fast.  Either scenario work for this scenario.  We’ll call these Scenarios 1A and 1B.)  Then he turns things around in 1A, everyone wants him.  Or he continues pounding the ball in 1B and everyone still wants him.  You could trade him for a much more valuable piece or you can ride the wave.  Second scenario (2A), you draft Aramis, he gets hurt in May and no one wants him, not even you.  Then Aramis comes back and hits, but still no one wants him because people don’t trust him to stay healthy.  Or (2B) you trade Aramis for less than his worth because you just want to be done with him and then he continues to hit and you get an ulcer.  In 1A and 1B, you have Lawrie or whatever you want (within reason and depending on what your state constitution allows).  In 2A, you have a piece you don’t even want and an ulcer (2B).  I also went over my Brett Lawrie 2012 fantasy.  2C click the link. 2012 Projections:  90/20/70/.290/24

8. Alex Rodriguez – When I was doing my research for A-Rod, I was looking through some of his past years — 52 homers, 18 steals in 2001, 57 homers and 9 steals in 2002 — how again did we not know there was steroids in baseball?  I mean, every BBWAA member is saddened and disheartened and synonym now when they talk about these players besmirching the good name of baseball.  Why weren’t they saddened etc. when it was going on?  Wasn’t it obvious?  I wasn’t bothered because during these years I was smoking weed.  Was every BBWAA member high?  Any the hoo!  A-Rod’s presumably clean of the clear now, but his body is breaking down because of the years on it.  That’s his question mark.  Can he stay healthy?  I have my doubts.  2012 Projections:  70/24/85/.270/5

9. Aramis Ramirez – When Aramis signed with the Brewers, I went over my Aramis fantasy.  I wrote it while karaoking to Air Supply’s Even the Nights are Better.  2012 Projections:  75/25/95/.295

10. Kevin Youkilis – Okay, basically no 3rd baseman can stay healthy.  I think something that gets lost in the Sawx hype is The Greek God of Can’t Walk Half The Time has hit less than 20 homers over more seasons than he’s hit above 25 homers and has never hit more than 29 homers.  Pablo Sandoval, who’s 7 years younger than him, has as many 20+ homer seasons.  Youuuuuuk is a good name for people who like names.  For people who like players to actually hit, he’s not as good.  2012 Projections:  75/19/85/.270/3

11. Michael Young -  Went over Young’s projections in the top 20 1st basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball.

12. Mark Reynolds – Went over Reynolds’s projections in the top 20 1st basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball.

13. Emilio Bonifacio – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Roberts.  I call this tier, “You should draft someone else.” Went over Bonifacio’s projections at the top 20 shortstops for 2012 fantasy baseball.

14. Ryan Roberts – Went over Roberts’s projections at the top 20 2nd basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball.

15. Mike Moustakas – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Stewart.  I call this tier, “The good news, but it comes with degrees of risk.”  This is the good news because 3rd base is about to get infusion of talent.  To use a phrase that sounds like a cliche, brighter days are on the horizon.  Whether it’s Moose, Valencia, Stewart or Gamel, one or more of these guys should provide sneaky value.  Obviously not all of them will, so choose wisely.  I wrote a Moustakas 2012 fantasy post already.  It’s six parts brilliant and one part dumb.  It’s up to you decide which is which.  2012 Projections:   60/20/80/.270/4

16. Danny Valencia – Valencia, California is also known non-ironically as Awesometown.  So I suggest we call him Danny Awesometown.  Makes you more excited about Valencia, doesn’t it?  No?!  Geez, you’re tough.  How about the fact he can hit almost 20 homers and get maybe three steals?  That gets you going, doesn’t it?  All right, how about Danny Might-Be-Solid-Considering-How-Late-You-Can-Draft-Him-town?  2012 Projections:  75/18/85/.265/3

17. Mat Gamel – Here’s what I said earlier this offseason, “No one likes Mat Gamel.   The Brewers wanted to try Gamel in Spring Training last year and he was 30 pounds overweight.  Lay off the mayonnaise, doode.  His Triple-A manager said he’s “hard-headed.”  (No one ever said that of Justin Morneau.)  I get this feeling with a beat provided by will.i.am that Gamel is gonna go the way of Matt Murton.  I hope he doesn’t.  I hope he gets a real shot at 1st base in Spring Training.  I think now that McGehee is gone he will.  Even if all Gamel does is hit homers and make errors.  In 2007, Milwaukeeans called that The Braun Exacta.  I propose the Brewers correct Gamel’s defensive problems similar to how the Rockies went to the humidor.  They should put The Vacuum in Miller Park.  Whenever the visiting team is hitting, you turn The Vacuum to suck and watch as everything is hit to the left side.  The Vacuum sucks so Gamel doesn’t blow.  He had another great year at Triple-A — 28 homers, .310.  He looks like he’s more than ready with the bat.  Definitely will be someone I’ll look at late in drafts for my corner infidel spot.  Could get a cheap 25 homers and a .290 average.”  And that’s me quoting me!  In the end, Gamel is either going to give you 25 homers or 2 homers and you have to drop him because he’s lost the job.  2012 Projections:  60/25/75/.290

18. Ian Stewart – Incredibly, I’m willing to give Mini Mini Donkey one more chance, especially if he’s being drafted late enough.  For a late round flyer what does Stewart have over, say, Pedro Alvarez?  He’s had a full season where he hit 25 homers.  That’s one.  Why him over, say, Freese?  Same reason.  Over Prado?  Same reason.  Stewart also his sneaky 7 to 10 steal speed like his mentor, Mini Donkey. 2012 Projections:  60/24/75/.245/7

19. David Freese – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Edwin Encarnacion.  I call this tier, “My New Year’s Resolution was to not see the movie New Year’s Eve and to draft a 3rd baseman before this tier.”  2011 World Series MVP David Freese has little power, no speed and the hype of changing his name to 2011 World Series MVP David Freese.  Oh, and he can’t stay healthy.  Sounds like he should be the mayor of Awesometown.  2012 Projections:  55/15/65/.290

20. Martin Prado -  The other day Prado showed up at my window singing The Promise by When In Rome.  He was trying to curry favor with me because he knows that his lack of power and speed makes me not want to draft him ever.  When he was done singing, I still didn’t want to draft him but I did invite him in for some risotto.  I have a big heart!  2012 Projections:  80/12/70/.300/5

After the top 20 3rd basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball, there’s lots of names, but these five stand out:

Edwin Encarnacion – He’s either going to stay healthy and hit .250 with 25 homers or get hurt and have 15 homers and .250.  In most leagues, you’re not going to hold onto him if you draft him so why bother?  Go for upside with someone else.  2012 Projections:  60/20/70/.255/3

Scott Sizemore – You really shouldn’t have Sizemore on your team outside of AL-Only leagues, and even there he leaves a lot to be desired.  Here’s the deal — dealio, if you’re trying to sound hip but aren’t really — 3rd base is not a deep position and if you’re this deep you don’t have many options.  Sizemore had his best season last year with a 11/5 season and that looked like it was ceiling, and with a ceiling like that who needs floors? (<–I think that makes sense.  Think about it.)  2012 Projections:  65/10/70/.260/7

Lonnie Chisenhall – I already went over my Lonnie Chisenhall fantasy.  I counted six typos.  2012 Projections:  65/20/80/.250/3

Casey McGehee – Casey McGehee is a Baha Man.  He was a guy who looked destined to be a utility man, had a huge season and people started inserting Casey McGehee into the poem, Casey at the Bat.  Turned out he was a utility man who lucked into a big season and those same people wished they didn’t use pen when inserting his name into the poem, so they changed McGehee to MacDonald and told everyone they did a mash-up of Casey at the Bat and Old MacDonald.  2012 Projections:  60/16/70/.260

Pedro Alvarez -  Yes, Casey McGehee might steal his playing time.  What I think actually happens is Alvarez or McGehee goes to first base and the other plays — I don’t know — third base.  Last year all went wrong for PeAl (hmm, that nickname doesn’t really work).  The first year he had a 30.8% K-rate, but he was buoyed by a .341 BABIP.  When his BABIP came back to earth, his K-rate left a crater the size of the Grand Canyon in his average.  He needs to cut back on his Ks or he’s going to be back in the minors, carrying his own bags and staying in dumps with no running water.  Well, that sorta sounds like nice hotels in Pittsburgh, but you catch my drift.  2012 Projections:  60/18/75/.240

Top 20 catchers, 1st basemen and 2nd basemen for 2011 are in the books.  We continue around the horn (that means we’ll go back for the shortstops; don’t ask, I was getting fancy) bringing us to the top 20 3rd basemen for 2011 fantasy baseball.   This year 3rd base gave most of you the gas face.  For the most part, you were lucky if you didn’t draft a top ranked one cause most of them bombed.  I mean, Emilio Bonifacio is a top five 3rd baseman?  That’s an eff in the coolie if I’ve ever heard one.  Zimmerman, Longoria, Wright?  Made you look smart in opposite world.  Also, to recap, this final ranking is from ESPN Player Rater with my comments.  The Player Rater allows me to be impartial while looking at how I ranked them in the preseason.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 3rd basemen for 2011 fantasy baseball and how they compare to where I originally ranked them:

1. Jose Bautista – A very wise monkey once said, sometimes when you go out on a limb, the branch breaks.  To use limb in another sentence:  I don’t think it’s much of a limb when I say Bautista was my biggest snafu since I started this blog.  I really didn’t believe him at all.  The kicker was usually when I Mr. Bungle a player as bad as I did with Bautista, Rudy will correct me, but he punted Bautista too, so I wasn’t even counterbalanced.  I can’t say this for sure, but it seems like most ‘perts don’t give a flying elbow if they make right or wrong calls, but I will say Bautista taught me one thing.  I don’t like being wrong; it really annoyed me that I mucked him up.  Now watch next year when I project him for 40 homers, he’s gonna hit 12 and make me into a Mr. Bungle once again.   Preseason Rank #12 (Yes, I was that much a non-believer; I had Pedro Alvarez above him.  I will now eat an apple laced with cyanide.), 2011 Projections:  70/25/80/.240/5, Final Numbers:  105/43/103/.302/9

2. Michael Young – Went over Young in the top 20 1st basemen for 2011 fantasy baseball post.

3. Adrian Beltre – I was pretty accurate with my mid-tier 3rd basemen preseason ranking.  Beltre, Young, Reynolds, Alvarez, Aramis and McGehee turned out as I thought they would, minus McGehee and Alvarez, obviously.  Unfortunately, I ended up with Alvarez and McGehee on more teams than I care to admit.  Alvarez, in particular, killed me.  This, however, is supposed to be about Beltre.  As soon as he signed with the Rangers, any trepidation I had went out the window.  Man Standing Outside My Metaphorical Window, “Stopping throwing trepidation on me!”  Preseason Rank #7, 2011 Projections:  80/24/95/.285/7, Final Numbers:  82/32/105/.296/1

4. Aramis Ramirez – Here’s one way to look at how pee poor the 3rd basemen were.  I pretty much nailed Aramis’s projections with his final numbers and I ranked him 11th and he finished 4th.  That, more or less, means seven 3rd basemen bombed.  Also, more or less should be one word.  Moreorless — doesn’t that look better?  You’re welcome, English language; I’m fixing you.  Preseason Rank #11, 2011 Projections:  75/25/90/.280, Final Numbers:  80/26/93/.306/1

5. Emilio Bonifacio – There’s nothing I can say that will illustrate how bad the 3rd basemen are that can’t be said by just seeing how high Bonifacio ranked here.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  78/5/36/.296/40

6. Jhonny Peralta – After looking like a lock for 20+ homers and a .270 average back in 2008, he wrestled with major league pitching like I wrestle with his superfluous H.  Due to some luck, his average was about 20 points too high, but everything else seems right in line with what he can do.  He’s ranked this high because 3rd basemen sucked this year.  Have you heard that before?  Yeah, thought so.  Preseason Ranked #16 for Shortstops, 2011 Projections:  65/17/80/.255, Final Numbers:  68/21/86/.299

7. Pablo Sandoval – In the preseason, I compared him to an in-his-prime Lyle Overbay.  Still sounds about right.  Before you scoff, scoffer.  Lyle Overbay’s best year 82/22/92/.312/5 was better than this year by Sandoval.  Preseason Rank #13, 2011 Projections:  70/18/80/.305/3, Final Numbers:  55/23/70/.315/2

8. Mark Reynolds – Went over Reynolds in the top 20 1st basemen post.

9. Ryan Roberts – Went over Roberts in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2011 fantasy baseball post.

10. Evan Longoria – I may still rank Longoria in the 1st round next year.  Absolutely nothing changed for him except his luck fell off the map.  If it wasn’t for bad luck, he would’ve had no luck at all.  His K-rate actually went down, his walk rate went up, his HR/FB% stayed where it should be.  I may even pick him to win the MVP next year.  I will probably say some variation of the preceding a dozen times this offseason, so if you missed this, don’t worry.  And if you read the preceding, forget it so it seems fresh the next twelve times I say it.  Preseason Rank #1, 2011 Projections:  105/33/115/.280/10, Final Numbers: 78/31/99/.244/3

11. Edwin Encarnacion – On one hand, I can’t believe Encarnacion ranked this high.  On the other hand, it’s more of an indictment of the 3rd basemen because his numbers don’t look that good.  On a third lesser known hand that is actually a mitten on the end of a broomstick, he was valuable in the 2nd half of the year.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  70/17/55/.272/8

12. Chipper Jones – He didn’t go unranked in the preseason because I overlooked him.  He was coming off a year when he nearly retired from injuries.  In fact, I think he did retire then decided to come back, if I remember it correctly.  Whatever.  Glass Chipper hits when he’s healthy but that ‘when’ is the size of King Kong Bundy.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  56/18/70/.275/2

13. Alex Rodriguez – It totally bit me in the ass saying I wanted a 3rd baseman in the first two rounds of last year’s drafts.  3rd base was my cross to bear, or bare if you’re a nudist.  A-Rod, Wright and Zimmerman were off the charts terrible.  Sure, A-Rod had the decency to get injured so you could replace him, but who were you replacing him with?  Wilson Betemit?  David Freese?  Bleh and Belch.  Preseason Rank #4, 2011 Projections:  90/32/110/.280/7, Final Numbers:  67/16/62/.276/4

14. Kevin Youkilis – It’s easy to say this was an off season for Youuuuuuk, but, at age 32, this could be the beginning of the end.  This is the third year in a row that he’s failed to top 136 games and the 2nd year in a row he didn’t hit 20 homers.  On a side note, here’s what I said in the preseason about Youk, “Other fantasy baseball ‘perts will say 1st base is one of the deepest positions and you shouldn’t pay for it on draft day.  …Do you feel as safe with Youuuuuk as you would with, say, Te(i)x?  I wouldn’t.  Do you feel as safe with Morneau as Fielder?  Do you feel as safe with Dunn as you do with any of the first basemen in the 1st tier?  And this is only one tier down.”  And that’s me quoting me!  Sure, that was about 1st basemen, but it mentioned Youk so I included it here.  Sue me for your zero dollar subscription fee.  Preseason Rank #8 for 1st basemen, 2011 Projections:  95/27/95/.300/5, Final Numbers:  68/17/80/.258/3

15. David Wright – It wasn’t just that the 3rd basemen were bad this year, but it was worse than that.  The good 3rd basemen weren’t just less good so you still got some draft value.  Across the board, 3rd basemen killed you.  For the first time, I felt like Wright didn’t care either.  I get it, you can go 1-for-4 with a run.  How about you hit a home freakin’ run?!  I think Metco is in his head too.  If the Mets move the fences in only one foot, but told him they moved the fences in thirty feet it would have the same impact on his power.  Preseason Rank #2, 2011 Projections:  95/30/105/.285/17, Final Numbers:  60/14/61/.254/13

16. Daniel Murphy – Went over Murphy in the top 20 2nd basemen post.

17. Albert Callaspo – Was about as steady a performer as you can find with his 3 homer, 3 steal 1st half and 3 homer, 5 steal 2nd half.  This was an illustration of how being steady isn’t always a good thing.  Callaspo may have to replace Polanco in the yawnstipating definition.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  54/6/46/.288/8

18. Ryan Zimmerman – If a player’s season can be summed up by the company he’s keeping on the year-end rankings, look at the players around Zimmerman.  Callaspo’s above him!  Daniel Murphy had a better season than Zimmerman and he stopped playing on August 7th!  I’d say 2011 was a step back for Zimmerman, but it was more like a step back, then he fell into a ditch, then someone popped a squat above him and crapped on his head.  On a side note, I’m way off on a lot of these 3rd basemen projections, but I guarantee you all ‘perts are off with these guys.  No one could’ve told you Wright, Zimmerman, etc would’ve been this bad.  I only mention this because I think it’s ridiculous some people charge for their projections.  I could pretty much tell you what any player is going to do assuming their healthy, barring a few here and there like Bautista.  But guys like Bautista are me going on a limb.  I could’ve told you 35 homers and a .280 average like everyone else and been less wrong, but what fun is that?  Now someone help me down from my soapbox.  Preseason Rank #3, 2011 Projections:  90/32/100/.285/5, Final Numbers:  52/12/49/.289/3

19. Martin Prado – Went over him in the top 20 2nd basemen post.

20. Chase Headley – If you ever wondered to yourself whether or not 3rd base was really as bad as it seemed this year, notice Chase Headley making the top 20.  Then notice he had 4 home runs on the year.  He only hit one homer at home all year.  All year!  On the positive side, he outperformed Casey McGehee.  Recurring Theme, “The third basemen were really bad this year.”  Preseason Rank #15, 2011 Projections:  70/15/85/.255/7, Final Numbers:  43/4/44/.289/13

My dinner with Andre is over as Andre Ethier has called it kaput on his season.  It wasn’t from a lack of trying, I’ll tell ya that.  “Hey, I just want to say how much it means to me to try to help this team win even though I shouldn’t be playing.  This is my job, and I take my job very seriously, even if means I may never walk again because I’m playing when I shouldn’t be.  I will not sit, no matter what!  Unless someone asks me to sit because they realize I shouldn’t be playing.”  Andre encapsulates today’s athlete perfectly.  Team first, as long the player is okay putting team first.  For whatever reason, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Ethier overdrafted again next year.  People just can’t get enough of his 20 homer, no steal fantasy value.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Dee Gordon – 4-for-5 with his 17th steal.  He’ll be in this afternoon’s Buy/Sell.  Seems like a no-brainer, which is my specialty.

Juan Rivera – 2-for-4, 4 RBIs.  He now has 32 RBIs in 45 games with the Dodgers.  Note to self:  Use Juan Rivera at a later date to show how arbitrary RBIs are.

Chad Billingsley – 2 1/3 IP, 4 ER.  If he was a dangling Chad on your team, punch him out.

Vladimir Guerrero – 3-for-5 with his 12th homer.  After the game, he had vodka with coffee liqueur while arguing with Mark Reynolds about who was the best cosmonaut.

Chris Davis – 3-for-4.  This comes after an 0-for-10 stretch with 7 Ks.  He reminds me a bit of me at this bar the other night.  There was a point when I actually said the line, “What’s your man got to do with me?”  They don’t call me the Fantasy Master Lothario — or FML — for nothing.

Eric Chavez – 2-for-4, 2 RBIs.  When Chavez goes up to bat, the song that plays is “I Suck, Sucker,” which I wrote and sang for him.

Craig Schwinden – 5 IP, 5 ER.  In the first row at Metco was Kim Basinger, she’s a total Babraham Lincoln… Schwinden!

Jason Bay – 2-for-4 with a grand slam in the first game of the doubleheader; 1-for-2 with a steal in the 2nd.  He now has three homers in the last week.  This will help the Mets, who are preparing a video of his week’s exploits with Joe Esposito’s You’re the Best playing in the background, which they will ship around to perspective trade partners in the offseason.

Mike Minor – 5 IP, 4 ER, 8 baserunners, 2 Ks and the conshellation prize.  Damn, really could used a 6 IP, 0 ER start from him, and, as always, this is all about me.

Julio Teheran – 5 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 7 baserunners, 3 Ks.  He’s gonna be good, but this was no indication of that.  The Mets and Braves both looked like they just got done playing a previous game, which they did.

Brent Morel – 2-for-4, 4 RBIs and 2 homers.  You fancy mushroom!

Brent Lillibridge – Sticking with the Brent theme, Lillibridge was hit by a pitch that broke his hand.  He should’ve aqueduct’d.

Ian Kennedy – 7 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 7 baserunners, 11 Ks, improving his record to 19-4.  Joe Kennedy would’ve been proud, then bought him an election.

Paul Goldschmidt – 2-for-4 with his 7th homer.  He’s still struggling to maintain a decent average with all the Ks, but he has two homers in the last week.

Rickie Weeks – The Brewers activated Weeks from the 15-day DL that he was on for over a month.  15-day DL, “You exploit my generosity!”

Andrew Miller – 5 IP, 5 ER, 10 baserunners, 3 Ks.  I wonder who’s gonna be bumped from the Sawx rotation for the playoffs.  I mean, I have an idea.  Be weird if it’s Miller after Francona earlier in the year said, “Obviously, [Miller] is a huge part of our organization, and it’s going to stay that way.  He’s not going anywhere.”  Maybe he’ll say he was putting air quotes around his statement.

Colby Rasmus – Took live batting practice and should be good to go by early next week.  I’ve marked my I Couldn’t Care Less calendar.  We now wait.

Edwin Encarnacion – 2-for-4 with a homer.  I got a letter recently from one of our incarcerated readers, it went like this, “I don’t think you’ve given enough attention to Encarnacion.  He’s hitting the cover off the ball just as well as anyone else in the major leagues or the penal circuit.  By the way, you puta?  Yours, Boo-Boo.”

J.P. Arencibia – Hit his 22nd homer yesterday.  A catcher with power and a low average?  Oh, he’s definitely gonna be on multiple teams of mine next year.  That’s right, I’m thinking about my 2012 draft already.  Sleep on me, that pillow is where your head’ll lie.  Permanently, snitch, it’s beddy-bye, Eminem.

Ricky Romero – 6 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 8 baserunners, 7 Ks.  Could I make R.R. Cool Jay (see resemblance to the rapper (actor?)) a starter on some of my mixed teams in 2012?  I’m contemplating it.  AL East be damned!

Chris Narveson – 5 2/3 IP, 6 ER, 9 baserunners, 2 Ks.  He was good in this game, until he wasn’t.  Snap in the inverted W formation!

Cole Hamels – 9 IP, 2 ER, 6 baserunners, 2 Ks.  Season ERA is 2.60 and WHIP is 0.95.  Phillies are gonna be tough to beat in the playoffs.  Cust kayin’.

Chase Utley – Will sit out this weekend with what is being deemed a mild concussion.  I got one thing to relay about mild concussions… Justin Morneau called and said, “How come I’m wearing my mittens on my feet?”

Brett Cecil – Cecil grew up right where I live and pitched for my high school’s big rival: Dematha (a school that produced David Aldridge, Keith Bogans, Mike Brey, James Brown, Adrian Dantley, Joe Forte, Paul Rabil, Brian Westbrook and others). Cecil has the chance to be the best baseball player to ever come out of the school.

In 2007, the Blue Jays made Cecil the 38th overall selection in the draft. He pitched a bit in A- ball for the Jays in 2007, showing some promising signs: 10.15 K/9 rate, just 1.99 BB/9 and a 1.27 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in 13 starts.

In 2008, he split time between A+, AA and AAA, pitching quite well at each stop. The majority of damage came at AA. In 18 starts, he posted a 10.08 K/9 rate, 2.67 BB/9 rate, 2.55 ERA and 1.15 WHIP.

It surprised no one that he would start 2009 in AAA. However, his success, or lack thereof, was surprising. His Ks went way down (5.88), his walks went up (3.49) and his ratios suffered: 5.69 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. However, the Jays, one of the smartest organizations in the American League East (and therefore baseball), realized that his strand rate (52.6%) was ridiculous, so they brought him up to the show for the majority of 2009.

While his season would look ugly (5.30 ERA, 5.37 FIP and 1.65 WHIP), he got his K-rate up to 6.65 and his walk rate was at 3.66. Meanwhile his BABIP (.338) and HR/FB rate (14.8%) seemed to suggest he was just darn unlucky.

The Jays and some fantasy owners expected a good step forward in 2010 and we got it. While his Ks went down a tad (6.10), his swinging strike percentage went up to 9.2%, his line drive rate went down and his ground balls went up. Not surprisingly, his BABIP (.293) and HR/FB rate (8.7%) got closer to normal. At the end of the year, Cecil had a 4.22 ERA, 4.03 FIP and 1.33 WHIP spread across 28 starts.

This is where we are reminded that baseball is rarely a linear game. If you expected Cecil to take another step forward in 2011, you were dead wrong. He gave up five or six runs in three of his first five starts and had a 6.86 ERA at the end of April.

Cecil was dispatched back to AAA. While his Ks returned (7.21) and his walks went down (2.75), they weren’t exactly reflected in his ratios (5.26 ERA and 1.44).

Still, either the Jays believed in the underlying numbers or really needed an arm as Cecil returned to the majors on June 30, and promptly gave up six runs in 6.1 IPs against the lowly Pirates. A small matter of solace is that he managed to strike out six Buccos. At that point, his ERA sat at 7.24.

Well, remember when I said baseball wasn’t a linear game? Since June 30, in 10 starts and 70.1 IPs, Cecil has a 3.33 ERA and 46 Ks to only 20 walks. I love me some Brett Cecil. He is just 25 and already has 360+ MLB innings. I think he’ll finish the year strong and post 25-30 more Ks. You might want to avoid some of his tougher matchups, but, otherwise, I’m fine using him.

Felipe Paulino – In 2001, as an 18-year-old, Paulino was signed by the Houston Astros. He’d feel his way through Rookie Ball from 2003 – 2004 until 2005, when he pitched 55 innings spread across A- and A ball. He would look damn good too: 2.95 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 10.5 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9.

Clearly, he was ready for A+…or, not as his Ks dwindled (6.48) and his walks skyrocketed (4.20). There was no silver lining in those numbers either, as his FIP (4.66) was actually worse than his terribly mediocre ERA (4.35).

Still, he got a promotion in 2007 to AA ball and got his swagger back: 8.84 K/9, 3.94 BB/9 and reasonable ratios (3.62 ERA and 1.36 WHIP). He’d start three games that year in the majors and appear in two others. His appearances would be utterly forgetful if they weren’t so tragically bad (7.11 ERA with a 20.8% HR/FB rate).

The roller coaster of a career would get bumpier in 2008, as he missed the majority of the season, tallying just 0.2 IPs in AAA. Undeterred, he was back in AAA in 2009. While his cosmetics looked good (3.12 ERA), he was walking everyone and their mom (5.97 BB/9), yet the Astros had no problem promoting him to the majors. While his Ks (8.57) looked promising and he appeared to get his walks (3.41) sort of in order, he still gave up a ton of long balls and line drives. At this point, it looked like Paulino was going to straddle the line between average reliever and below average starter.

His 2010 season did nothing to clear this up. The Ks remained, but he walked a ton more guys. However he was also the benefit of good and bad luck. While he had a totally serviceable line drive rate his, BABIP was .331 and, even with a low HR/FB rate, his strand rate was near criminal (58.5%). His unpalatable ERA (5.11) and FIP (3.44) weren’t in the same zip code. Of course, FIP takes into account his 3.6% HR/FB rate (which isn’t real sustainable), so when you look at xFIP (which normalizes the HR/FB rate), you get 4.36. Still that’s pretty darn good for a guy who can strike out a bunch of players.

Unfortunately, the Astros, in their infinite wisdom, didn’t see much in Paulino, shipping him to Colorado for Clint Barmes.  (I assume in an effort to motivate Jeff Keppinger or the other dozen or so replacement level middle infielders they had.)

The Rockies looked poise to give Paulino the Jorge de la Rosa treatment – however he couldn’t find his way into the rotation and had his contract sold to the Royals (a potential reverse de la Rosa move?).

Paulino has started 15 games for the Royals and has posted a 7.85 K/9 rate, 3.27 BB/9 rate, 3.83 ERA and 3.42 FIP). He is getting less solid contact with the Royals, yet his BABIP remains high. He is still getting a great swinging strike percentage which can lead to fantastic K games. In fact, over his last 10 starts and 61.1 IPs, he a 4.26 ERA and 55 Ks – not too shabby.

He’ll never likely be a sub-4.00 pitcher and there will be some ugly games when he walks the entire team. However, his ERA should hover in the mid-4.00s and provide a bevy of Ks. In deep leagues, I’m all over that kind of production.

Edwin Encarnacion – Encarnacion, or E5, was a ninth round pick of the Texas Rangers in 2000. However, before he could get his feet wet, he was shipped, along with Ruben Mateo, to Cincinnati for a reliever named Rob Bell.

In 2002, at A ball, Encarnacion looked awesome: 17 HRs, and a .282/.338/.458 line – sure the plate discipline (108 Ks to just 40 walks) would hurt his average development, but that’s fine with that kind of power.

Throughout the minors, Encarnacion just hit for power and hit for a decent average. From 2003 – 2007, he never batted below .272 at any level and currently has a .278/.345/.425 at AA and .329/.396/.565 line at AAA.

He earned near fulltime duties with the Reds in 2006 and rewarded them for their foresight with a .276/.359/.473 and 15 homers in 117 games. He wasn’t swinging and missing a ton (8.7%), was posting a fine line drive rate (21.1%) and his strike out rate (16.7%) and walk rate (8.8%) weren’t detrimental. Add all those up and he was going to be a major league regular with fine power for years to come.

Or not…as he struggled immensely out of the gate in 2007. At the end of April, he was batting .221/.294/.260 and was sitting at .250/.327/.357 at the end of May. At that point he had just three dingers and he began to lose playing time to Ryan Freel to free up space in the outfield for a former Rays prospect named Josh Hamilton. E5 was sent down to the minors on May 9, but would return two weeks later. After he returned, Encarnacion went .307/.370/.476 with 15 HRs in 108 games.

With Hamilton traded, 2008 was clearly going to be the year for Encarnacion to solidify himself as a solid MLB regular. While he hit 25 bombs, he batted just .251/.340/.466 and committed an ungodly 23 errors. Encarnacion was striking out a tad more but was also walking a bit more. For some reason, though, he wasn’t hitting the ball with much authority. His FB rate spiked, perhaps as he was trying to jack everything that came to him. This hurt his BABIP and destroyed his ability to get on base.

After going .209/.333/.374 in 43 games for the Reds in 2009, they shipped him, Zach Stewart and Josh Roenicke to the Blue Jays for Scott Rolen. While E5 hit a few more homers for the Jays, he’d perform worse, stumbling to a .240/.306/.442 line.

His 2010 was little different – Encarnacion fielded poorly, hit some homers, but couldn’t get on base.

The following year seemed to be no different – at the end of June, 2011, he sat at .250/.283/.404. Encarnacion seemed finished. However, since that time he has gone .304/.388/.527 with nine homers in 50 games. He has struck out just 35 times and walked 23 times. While this is a small sample, it’s a huge step in the right direction if it can continue.

Encarnacion can hit .265-.280 the rest of the way with 5+ HRs. He’s good cheap power in a good deep lineup. Previously, I’ve wanted nothing to do with Encarnacion – I’m about to change my tune.

Ed Wade’s Toupee has made it clear that he’s trying to move Hunter Pence in a trade.  Why would the Astros want to hold onto their best player?  He just gives his fans false hope.  False hope is worst than no hope.  See every movie John Singleton’s done since Boyz n the Hood for examples of what hope can do to you.  Awesome, the guy who did Boyz n the Hood is gonna remake Shaft.  No, not awesome.  Terrible.  Thanks a lot, false hope!  Speculation has Pence going to Atlanta, Philly or the Red Sox.  Speculation has me excited to own Pence.  Shoot, speculation sounds like salvation for Pence.  If Pence were a car, I’d put on him a bumper sticker, “Anywhere but Houston.”  His RBIs haven’t suffered as much as you might think considering where he is, but it can only get better.  And his runs, his lineup protection, potentially his ballpark.  I like it.  It’s a win-win-maybe win scenario.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Kosuke Fukudome – The Indians acquired the Japanese OF to help fill the void left by Korean OF Shin-Soo Choo.  Hopefully Fukudome doesn’t get hurt or else they may bring in a Taiwanese Little Leaguer.

Tyler Colvin – Was recalled.  Still plenty of time to reach the 40 homer prediction of Matthew Berry.  Go big or go home!

Drew Storen – Rumors are saying that the Nats weren’t willing to trade Drew Storen for Denard Span.  And they shouldn’t.  It’s not that important to save money on monogrammed bathrobes.

Ryan Zimmerman – 4-for-5.  It should be a day of celebration for Zimmerman’s owners so it’s too bad I’m about to point out he has 5 homers and 20 RBIs on the year.  As Mattingly would say as Morganna ran toward him, “What a bust.”  Speaking of which, in the 80′s we had casual female nudity in movies and random hot girls running on the baseball field. Then in the 90′s we got no nudity and no one running on the field.  Now, you get male nudity (don’t even start me about Friends With Benefits — why are you showing Justin Timberlake and not Mila Kunis?  Am I not the target audience? Actually, don’t answer that.) and drunk idiot guys running on the field.  Where did our country go wrong?  Can’t we get back to random naked girls in movies and goofy Loni Anderson-type girls running on the field?  Oh, and don’t look up recent photos of Loni Anderson on Google.  Her plastic surgery makes Lisa Rinna’s lips look real.

Wade Davis – 6 IP, 5 ER vs. the A’s and the conshellation prize.  All five runs were given up in the first inning then he settled down, but still the last time Tampa got hammered from Oakland this bad was when MC Hammer played last month at a Tampa farmers’ market.

Desmond Jennings – 3-for-4, 4 RBIs with his first homer and fourth steal in only six games while batting .500.  After the game, he declared himself the new King of Slam & Legses, only when he said legses it didn’t sound weird because he’s perfect.

Brandon Allen – 1-for-2 with his 3rd home run and his first steal.  My man’s playing with reckless a-Brandon!  That’s 3 homers in 26 at-bats.  That’s, a’la Larry David, prettaaaaaay prettaaaaaay good.

Jesus Guzman – 2-for-2 with his 4th homer and 2nd steal.  I’ve been wanting to get on board with this guy for over a week now, but he’s been sitting every third game and not hitting righties well, i.e., what most pitchers are.  If you can platoon him in deeper leagues, it’s worth a flyer.

Kyle Blanks – Now 2 for his first 20 with 11 Ks.  At this point, the only way he’s going to be productive is if someone figures out a way to harness his windmill swing for electricity.

Edwin Encarnacion – 3-for-4 with his 8th home run.  Last time he hit a home run, it was at the tail end of a 14-for-31 streak.  This could be the start of another such run.  And, yeah, ‘another such’ sounds lame.  I’m aware.

J.J. Hardy – 3-for-5 with his 17th and 18th homers which is one homer behind Tulowitzki, who leads all major league shortstops.  Orioles fans are now saying Cal Ripken who?  Though they probably mean, “Are you talking about junior or senior?”

Mark Trumbo – 3-for-5 with 5 RBIs and only a single short of the cycle.  He’s nothing special on AVG/OBP but 19 HRs and 53 RBIs in the AL West (see Smoak, Moreland, and Barton) should keep Trumbo off any blacklists.

Erick Aybar – 3-for-4 with his 21st steal.  In the past two months, he’s hitting .255 with 7 steals.  Cust kayin’.

Billy Butler – 1-for-4, 3 RBIs and his 10th homer or his third homer in as many games.  Butler’s cups really runneth over.

Homer Bailey – 4 IP, 9 ER.  It’s to the point where I wouldn’t own Bailey until he threw two months straight of quality starts.

Francisco Rodriguez – Since he waived his games-finished clause that would pay him $17.5 million, he hasn’t finished any games.  K-Rod backwards is dork.  Father-in-laws everywhere rejoice.

Lucas Duda – 2-for-4, 3 RBIs and he’s going to make an appearance in this afternoon’s Buy/Sell as I throw it to Lucas.

Daniel Murphy – 1-for-3 with 3 runs and a steal as he stays blisteringly hot.  To point out the painful and obvious, he’s been better than Ryan Zimmerman.  Fantasy baseball, making prematurely bald men bald faster.

Emilio Bonifacio – 2-for-4 with his 24th steal.  His hitting streak is now up to 26 games.  That makes sense in opposite world where I look like Paul Walker with a mustache and girls still like mustaches.

Mike Stanton – 1-for-3 as he hit his 24th homer.  Actually, that’s not entirely true.  He started to swing and the ball flinched 375 feet the other way.

Wilson Betemit – 1-for-3 with a home run.  Has now hit in every game he’s started since his trade to the Tigers, which is a really nice way to say he’s hitting around .270 over the last week.

Brad Penny – 3 1/3 IP, 7 ER.  The Tigers pitching box score sounds like a porn marquee — Penny, Furbush, Ruffin, Purcey and Coke.  All to star in Motor City Mamas.