Fantasy Baseball Advice

Jay Bruce has hit four homers in the last four days while hitting over .500 in the last week.  Now has 22 homers in only 74 hits with 73 Ks to go along with 3 steals.  I never thought Mark Reynolds would steal 24 bases.  I didn’t think he had 15 in him.  So, don’t take this comparison the wrong way, but Mark Reynolds is lucky he snatched up the Mini Donkey nickname because Jay Bruce looks like he could be headed that way next year.  Bruce is still very young, and his propensity to strikeout leaves him vulnerable to big slumps, so I won’t predict a huge breakout in 2010.   But he can hit 30 homers and steal 10 bases while batting .250.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Homer Bailey – 7 IP, 1 ER, 7 Ks.  Now we’re getting to the point where he might actually be touted by the analcysts over at ESPN, which would mean his 2010 sleeper status could be in jeopardy.

Rick Porcello – 6 1/3 IP, 1 ER.  He was in the borderline starters post for this week with a very mild recommendation.

Denard Span – 4-for-9 in the doubleheader.  Quietly having a very solid year.  Those Minnesotans are so modest!  He needs a spokesman.  His Wikipedia page is a third the size of the Wikipedia page for mutton.  He needs the mutton man!  His numbers are looking a lot like Victorino’s.  Let’s see, someone already has the nickname, Feign Victorino.  (I think I gave it to Fowler.)  So, Victorino’s The Flying Hawaiian.  Maybe The Flying Twinkie?  Hmm… That needs work.  Maybe The Flying Minnesotan?  Hmm, that sounds like someone on a roller derby team.  How about Wing Span?  Too cutesy?  Yeah, probably.  Forget it, this is a job for the mutton man.

Josh Hamilton – Shutdown for the season.  Back date this to April.

Mark Buehrle – Also shutdown for the season.  Back date this to his perfect game.

Jack Wilson – Lastly, shutdown for the year.  Back date this to the day he was drafted.

Ian Desmond – 2-for-4, HR and a steal yesterday.  He hit the longest homer (460 feet, which was not this homer, but I just heard this yesterday) for any Nationals player at home this year.  This is a team with Paul Bunyan aka Big Donkey aka Adam Dunn on it.  Ian Desmond’s a shortstop.  You ready for a math problem?  Come on, I hear Winnie Cooper from The Wonder Years loves math.  Okay, here it is:  A shortstop that can hit a ball 460 feet + speed = Fantasy Sleeper.

Cameron Maybin – Speaking of fast guys with sneaky power, Maybin has two homers in the past 4 games.  I was pushing him last March for a reason, and I’ll be pushing him again next March.

J.A. Happ – 5 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 6 Ks.  He has a 2.85 ERA on the year with 12 wins.  Is he generating Rookie of the Year buzz?  Is there such a thing as Rookie of the Year buzz?

Ryan Madson – 2 IP, 0 ER and his 10th save.  On Sunday, he got a four out save.  Manuel’s finally figured out how to make the set-up man comfortable in the closing role.  Start him in the 8th inning.

Huston Street – 1 IP, 3 ER.  Maybe he’s still injured?  I don’t know, that’s why I put a question mark on it.

Trevor Cahill – 4 2/3 IP, 6 ER as the A’s continue to flummox me.  I might need to reach out to Bubb Rubb to see if he can counsel me.

Tony Gwynn – Has 4 steals in the last week.  SAGNOF!

Cesar Ramos – 5 IP, 1 ER.  The latest HodgePadre.  Okay, close your eyes for a second.  Don’t worry, I won’t pickpocket you.  Now imagine Adrian Gonzalez is traded to the Rockies for Ubaldo Jimenez.

Miguel Montero – 2 HRs.  Speaking of trades, hopefully the Diamondbacks move Snyder this offseason.

Scott Kazmir – Scratched to ready himself for the playoffs.  He probably won’t see anything more than a tuneup before the end of the season.

Curtis Granderson – 2 HRs with the 2nd being his 30th.  He also has 20 steals.  Sure, his average is .252, but don’t get so tied up in average.  That’s how you ended up missing Mark Reynolds this year.

Grant Balfour - Now has saves in back-to-back games.  This could mean he doesn’t see another save this year, or it could mean he saves two more games.

Wade Davis – 7 IP, 1 ER.  He’s still going to be too young and prone to major mistakes in the AL East for me to get that excited about him in 2010.

Adam Lind – 3 HRs yesterday.  Now has 35 homers on the year.  I already went over my Lind for 2010 campaign.

Clay Buchholz – Had a 3.21 ERA coming in, now has a 3.74 ERA.  7 earned runs in 5 innings is one way to make your 2009 stats look worse than they are.

Josh Beckett – Supposed to start on Saturday.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see him pitch 5 innings and then get pulled from the game.  Or as Dodgers fans say, “A Kershaw start.”

Edwin Encarnacion – Out with groin tightness.  Sounds like an injury that would sideline a porn actress.

Yesterday, Andy LaRoche made a last ditch effort for some of his parents’ love.  He went 5-for-5, with 2 homers, 4 Runs and 6 RBIs.  He had his best month of the season in September and he’ll still be 26 next year.  I might actually own Pirate players next year.  Weird!  BTW, the Pirates were playing in their final home game of the year in what has been a miserable decade season.  With this last opportunity for the Pirates to give their fans something to cheer about, the 3rd base coach put the brakes on LaRoche as he rounded 2nd heading to third on a long double.  Who cares right?  LaRoche needed a triple for the cycle!  Wait, it gets better.  Zach Duke is cruising for the entire game.  Runs into slight trouble in the 9th inning, but the Pirates have an 11-1 lead.  So what does the manager do with two outs, the never fear-inducing Blake DeWitt at-bat and Duke dealing with a very reasonable 103 pitch count?  He lifts Duke rather than let him get the complete game.  The Pirates deserve contraction.  /rant  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Hiroki Kuroda – 4 IP, 10 baserunners, 3 ER and 7 runs total.  As he provided a Ticker Shock.

Garrett Jones – HR and steal yesterday as he went 2-for-5.  On the season, he’s sitting at 21 homers and 10 steals with a .305 average.  That’s in 292 at-bats.  I think Robot Jones might officially be overrated next year, unless everyone thinks he’ll be overrated which could make him underrated or just rated.  Hard to say.  If I had to guess, I think people will assume he’s a fluke and he’ll go later than he should.

Josh Beckett – Scratched from his start vs. the Jays.  I wouldn’t wait around to see if he starts again this season if you need starters.  Chances are the Sawx throw him for only a few innings as a tuneup for the playoffs, if they throw him at all.

Brett Gardner – Gardner, Melky, Hinske, Shelley “I Will High Five You So Hard Your Momma Feels It” Duncan, Miranda-Something-Or-Other, Ramiro Pena and Cervelli.  What is the Yankees lineup a day after clinching?  Yes, that’s right.  We would’ve also accepted, what the Yankees lineup would’ve l0oked like all year if they had the same injuries as the Mets?  For fantasy baseball purposes, this isn’t great that your Yanks are sitting, but I don’t think Girardi is going to want them rusty so the regulars should see at least 4 games this week.

Jair Jurrjens – 7 IP, 0 ER, 3 Ks.  With only one start left on the year, his ERA is 2.61.  Zoinks!  Of course, I’d love for him to strikeout more guys, but it’s hard to argue with his year.  Of course, he’s no Wandwagon.  But who is?

Anibal Sanchez – 5 IP, 3 ER, 8 walks and that’s why I wouldn’t ever start him.

John Danks – 9 IP, 1 ER, 7 Ks.  Every time I think I’m done with Danks (last game 6 IP, 7 ER), he pulls me back in with a start like this.  I’m warning you now, I’m going to like him again next year.

Cole Hamels – 6 2/3 IP, 6 ER.  Damn you, Verducci Effect.

Miguel Tejada – 4-for-5 as he had his second 4 hit game in three days while batting over .500 in the last week.  At 13 homers, 5 steals and a .313 average, he’s been one of the biggest surprises this year for me.  Since those numbers aren’t that overwhelming, you can imagine how much I expected of him this year.

Gabe Kapler – HR yesterday.  Now that’s how you break a fast.

Grant Balfour – Got the save yesterday because when the bottle stopped spinning it was pointing at him.

Ervin Santana – 9 IP, 0 ER, 2 Ks as the Angels win the West.  Count on most of the Angels lineup sitting or phoning it in tomorrow.  That’s a slight endorsement for the Rangers starter tomorrow, Feldman.

Edwin Encarnacion – 2-for-3, 3 Runs and a RBI when he was replaced by Millar.  No word if he left because of a serious injury or just to emphasis how scary it is that I care what happened to him.

Colby Rasmus – This video was shot exactly 500 yards from Colby Rasmus.  If you think that is bad, you should see the one for Chris Davis.  It’s just a guy singing honkytonk at a Dallas bar and striking out with every woman he tries to serenade.

In September, Nick Markakis hit a wall like Super Dave Osbourne.  For the month, he’s currently ranked behind Grady Sizemore (who hasn’t played since September 3rd), Cory Sullivan and Justin Maxwell for value amongst outfielders.  If those names don’t sound familiar to you, they shouldn’t.  They suck.  Hold up, Albright.  You’re telling people to grab Edwin Encarnacion and drop Markakis? Yes, it’s a weird time of the year.  But if you hold onto guys for name value, you’re going to lose, especially in H2H leagues.  The flame has gone out on Sparkakis and it’s time to move on in one year leagues.  Anyway, here’s some more players to buy or sell this week in fantasy baseball:

BUY

Edwin Encarnacion – Need a guy that won’t run out a pop up?  Looking to fill your team with lollygaggers?  No need to look further!  For a limited time only, Encarnacion is batting third and hitting .400 over the last week.

Matt Thornton/Octavio Dotel/Scott Linebrink – Octatt Thornbrink, or some combination there within will get Sox saves.

Hank Blalock – Scroll down to morning post.  Go ahead, move your mouse.

Martin Prado – Ah… What to say?  Seriously, what?  He’s been hot recently (over .500 in the last week).  You need more?

Jody Gerut – Batting .500 over the last week with 3 homers.  His name doesn’t seem so girly now does it?  Okay, but not as girly as Suzy.

Every Padres Pitcher – They’re home for the final week.  Stock up!

Brian Duensing – Next week, he gets the Tigers and probably (teams’ final pitching schedules are iffy) the Royals.  He has an under 1 ERA vs. the Tigers in two games and the Royals’ bats have chlamydia.

Wade Davis – Gets the Orioles and the Yankees in the final game of the season.  He doesn’t come without risk, but crossing the street comes with risk, especially in New Delhi.

Rafael Furcal - About time.

Ronnie Belliard – Hitting for average, light power and speed and playing over Orlando Hudson.  Actually, Freddy Sanchez and Orlando Hudson should just start their own team.  The Dirty Hudsons.  They can play in Weehawken overlooking the grand Hudson River.  Instead of The Splash Zone, they can have The Rash Zone.

SELL

Ian Kinsler – Yay, he played more than 120 games.  Not well, unfortunately.  In September, he ran out of gas like OPEC in 2078. (Figures courtesy of Al Gore.)

David Wright – You’d think I didn’t like the Mets the way I’m pushing people to lose Beltran and Wright.  Not true.  Just this year.  Now to go along with Wright’s warning track power, he’s saying he’s scared coming to the plate because of Post-Plunking on the Head Syndrome.  Hopefully, he can get over this by next year, but for the final week I’d look elsewhere if there’s other options.

Chipper Jones – Seriously, drop him.

Any Pitcher That Has Pitched Their Last Game – Even if you’re simply putting in a middle reliever.  It’s do or die time, fellas (and two girl readers).  I’d wish you good luck, but luck’s for beginners and the leprechauns, use your skills!

Carlos Beltran won’t play in day games following night games.  He won’t play in too many games in a row.  He won’t play in games where the other team’s starting pitcher’s last name ends in an N.  Here’s me playing the world’s smallest violin for everyone at Metco.  Since Beltran’s return, 1 homer and zero steals.  So he’s not running and he’s hitting for an empty average with little power.  There’s no crying in baseball and there’s no sentimentality in fantasy baseball.  If you’re holding onto your 2nd round pick because you held him this long already, well, you’ve held him too long.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Anibal Sanchez – 8 IP, 0 ER, 4 baserunners, 7 Ks.  If Oliver Perez is the crazy girlfriend that you have hot passionate sex with but is afraid may stab you in the jugular in the middle of the night, then Anibal is her sister.  (If you followed that, give yourself a gold star.)

Dan Uggla – Hit his 30th homer yesterday as the Marlins rubbed their hands together thinking about who they were going to get for Uggla this offseason.

Joe Blanton – 7 IP, 0 ER, 4 baserunners, 9 Ks.  Threw a gem against the Marlins.  I overthought this one and… sonavabench!  Should’ve just started him.  (BTW, is overthought one word or two?  There I go again!)

Hiroki Kuroda – 6 IP, 0 ER, 6 baserunners, 6 Ks.  He was in the borderline starters post on Monday.  He’s a decent start on Sunday too.

Rafael Furcal – 4-for-5, 4 RBIs.  No one plays harder when you’re playing against a terrible team with a playoff spot sewn up.  No one.

Zach Duke – So this borderline starter didn’t work out quite as well.  You take Zach Duke to the cashier and she rings you up six innings and five earned runs.  That’s the price of playing sucky guys, I guess.

Trevor Cahill – 5 2/3 IP, 1 ER.  And my final borderline starter for yesterday worked out okay as I finally learned to not bet against the A’s.

Andrew McCutchen – The Dread Pirate hit his 12th homer yesterday in 3/4 of a season.  *sipping tea with my pinkie out, crossing legs*  Do you dare draft The Dread Pirate and Robot Jones on the same fantasy team next year?

Edwin Encarnacion – 2 HRs, but whoa, turkey, guess what else?  He batted third.  Zoinks!

Brian McCann – Left the game with a bruised wrist, which is not nearly as delicious as a braised wrist.

Martin Prado – Now batting near .500 in the last week and the hits just keep coming as he went 2-for-4 yesterday.

Jorge de la Rosa – 2 1/3 IP, 6 ER as dlR pitched his worst start since June.  You’re killing me, Smalls!

Carlos Gonzalez – Pulled from the game with a tight hamstring.  Car(No)Go, as it were.

Huston Street – Came on in the 7th.  Yeah, he’s not the closer yet.

Franklin Morales – Got the save as he gave up three inherited runs and one of his own.  So, yeah, Street may be the closer again soon.

Brad Hawpe – Hit a homer yesterday.  If you would’ve told me he retired two months ago, I might’ve believed you.

Alex Rios – HR yesterday.  If you bet that Rios and Hawpe would hit a homer on the same day, that’s like Powerball money you just won.

John Danks – 6 IP, 7 ER.  Showing de la Rosa two can play the “I Hate My Fantasy Owners Game,” he had his worst start since May.   After the game, Danks tweeted, “I pitched.  #sucky”

Bobby Jenks – Probably done for the year with a calf injury (with his size you’d think they’d call it a cow).  Linebrink would probably step in for any saves.

Adam Dunn – Hit his 38th homer yesterday.  We have a week and a half for Dunn to hit two more homers or the world will explode.

Matt Cain – 2 1/3 IP, 7 ER.  Now really isn’t the time for that regression that every fantasy baseball ‘pert has been predicting since May.

Randy Wells – 6 IP, 1 ER, 5 Ks.  According to Cubs fans, without Milton Bradley telling opposing hitters which pitches are coming, the Cubs are unstoppable.

Prince Fielder – Hit his 41st homer yesterday as he tied Pujols for the RBI lead with 129.  Going into the final weekend, if Prince is still neck-and-neck with Pujols, Albert should buy seats for Cecil Fielder right behind the Brewers dugout.  (For those in the back of the room, Cecil and Prince don’t get along.)  Devious Grey out.

Right now, Jason Bartlett has a 45/8/39/.347/19 line.  At 29-years-old, he’s flying past his career numbers.  Before this season, his career high for homers was 5.  He’s already at 8.  So let’s say the talk of his new jack swing is true; he can hit for more power now.  He’s still not hitting more than 5 homers in the 2nd half (he hit 1 homer in June and July in 87 ABs).  Recently, Maddon has batted him 7th or 8th in the order.  So the runs won’t come easy unless he eats at Taco Bell.  He’s a career .286 hitter with a .398 BABIP right now, so the average will come down.  He’s never stolen more than 23 bases in a season, but let’s say he blows that away by ten.  So let’s be optimistic and say a 2nd half line of 30/5/35/.300/14.  I ran an ultraviolet light over my bedsheets and it read, “That sounds a lot like Clint Barmes’s 2nd half.”  Thanks for confirming my suspicions, bed!  So Bartlett is a Sell.  Anyway, here’s some more players to buy or sell this week in fantasy baseball:

BUY

Josh Whitesell – Speaking of -sells, but this one’s a Buy… Kinda.  Whitesell doesn’t have every day playing time right now, so grab him in NL-Only leagues, but everywhere else I’d hold tight.  So, I guess, that’s a Whitehold.

Ramon Troncoso – The only thing better than getting vulture saves for your birthday is getting vulture wins.  But I’d take some vulture saves on my half birthday (<–it’s tomorrow!).

Pedro Martinez – Already went over my thoughts on Pedro to the Phillies.  I said, “In his last 48 starts, he has a 4.74 ERA and that was in a pitchers’ park.  On the other hand, he has been solid for Ks even as his career winds down.  On the third hand, he gave up 19 homers in 109 innings last year.  Oy.  I would grab him in an NL-Only league to see if there’s a spark left from the midget era, but I’d hold off in mixed leagues.”  And that’s me saving you the trouble of searching the site yourself!

Justin Duchscherer – Expected back early August.  I’d stash him if I had a DL spot.

Garrett Jones – If you’re wondering about this guy, where ya been?  He’s now been mentioned in three straight Buy/Sells.

Jed Lowrie – Will return on Saturday.  In a weekly AL-Only league, I’ve already activated him.  In a mixed league, where I’m rocking Everth Cabrera, I’m not sure what I’m going to do.  I’ll probably drop Lowrie because even in his Sons of Sam Horn-deemed huge year in 2008, he had 2 homers and one steal while batting .258 in two-hundred and sixty at-bats.  Pardon me while I yawn.

Marcus Thames – Has 3 homers in the last six games.  He can hit 7 more homers in the month of July before he becomes unusable in August, i.e., he’s streaky like Spike’s hair from Degrassi Junior High.  If Thames ever becomes a regular fantasy contributor, I have the title, “A Thames Runs Through It” burning a hole in my pocket.

Alex Gordon – Hey, it’s Grey’s favorite prospect that makes San Diego prospect, Nadir Bupkus, look valuable.  Boing! The best you could hope for from Gordon is a 5 to 7 homer 2nd half and 5 to 7 steals.  Those are optimistic when you consider he just had hip surgery.  Gordon’s worth grabbing if your corner spot is in dire straits, Mark Knopfler.

Edwin Encarnacion – To answer comment #76, “I’d go with Edwin over Alex Gordon.”

Mat Latos – The newest of the HodgePadres.  He was dissected in a Scouting the Unknown a few weeks ago.  I’d grab Latos in all leagues 12 or deeper.

Brandon Wood – Don’t blame Scioscia, where do you put a guy named Wood other than the bench?  It’s the power of the aptronym (<–Word of the Day!).  So, how long you think Scioscia extends Wood?  Hmm… Let’s rephrase.  How long until Wood’s demoted again?  Week?  Two?  I hope Wood’s up for good and getting regular at-bats, but I have my doubts.  He’s worth a flier but I wouldn’t invest too heavily.

SELL

Jay Bruce – Since I had no DL spot, I dropped him for Troncoso in a 15 team league.  He might return in 6 weeks.  Awesome!  He wasn’t hitting when his wrist was one piece.  I’d hold him in keepers and deep NL-Only leagues.

Dan Haren – The dog days of summer don’t do him justice.  Maybe he’s part-Albino and he’s scared of sun damage.  Whatever the case, the stats don’t lie.  Not since 2005 has he pitched well in the 2nd half.  And that was following a season of 46 innings in 2004, so my guess is he tires.  From 2006 through 2008, his 2nd half ERAs have been 4.91, 4.15 and 4.19, respectively.  Every way you look at it, he’s not the pitcher in the 2nd half as he has been in the 1st half.

Casey McGehee – McGehee has been slowed by patella tendinitis in his knee.  (I went to college with a Patella.  Sweet girl.)  McGehee’s 3 for his last 17 and has sat out three games in the last week.  As I said all along, McGehee wasn’t that great to begin with, if he’s hurting, there’s no reason to wait around.  It sure didn’ take McGehee long to go from a Buy to a Sell.  (BTW, the “T” that I left off of “didn” is being boxed up and shipped to Mat Latos.)