Fantasy Baseball Advice

In this series of Hall of Fame nomination-based posts, we’re going to focus on specific roles/positions.  We’ll be reviewing both players on the HOF ballot as well as non-HOFers who we feel deserve re-consideration.

This second post focuses on middle of the lineup hitters – with Jim Rice, Andre Dawson, and Mark McGwire being the highest profile of the bunch.

This marks Jim Rice’s 15th and last year of eligibility but momentum is on his side as 2008 marked a sizable jump in voter percentage from 63.5% to 73.2% (75% needed to get in). There’s also the fact that every other player who got 70% of the vote made the Hall of Fame.

After sifting through countless posts and articles on the subject, it appears there’s a rift between Boston and/or print journalists like Dan Shaughnessy who are pro-Rice and sabermetricians like Bill James and Rob Neyer who are anti-Rice. Jim Rice’s candidacy relies solely on his slugging as his speed and defense were below average. My POV is that this requires him to have been a clearly superior offensive force than his peers.  Since I’m comparing him to peers, I might as well analyze a whole bunch of sluggers at the same time (slugger loosely defined as 300+ HR) – even some that are no longer on the ballot (2008 % of HOF votes):

Jim Rice (73.2%), Andre Dawson (65.9%), Mark McGwire (23.6%), Dave Parker (15.1%), Dale Murphy (13.8%), Harold Baines (5.2%), Mo Vaughn (1st year), Juan Gonzalez (Still 2 years away), Dick Allen, Albert Belle, Dwight Evans, Darryl Strawberry, Jose Canseco, Fred Lynn, Reggie Smith, Jack Clark (all off ballot)

My analysis leans on the below.  I factored out any subjectivity like ‘reputation’ or how much someone was ‘feared’ as I wasn’t around for when most of these guys were at their peak:

1. OPS+ and btWins – Both these stats are league and park adjusted so they create a level playing field. OPS+ is based on OBP+SLG.  btWins estimates the number of wins a player added relative to the league average hitter.
2. 162 Game rates for HR/RBI/SB – So I didn’t get too lost in the abstract stats. Totals can be misleading so I focused on a per 162 game rate.
3. MVPs/Top 10 MVP Finishes/All-Stars/Intentional Walks per 162 Games – To get a sense of their relative dominance during their era.
4. Gold Gloves/Position – To get a sense of whether their defense provided additional value.
5. Durability/Longevity – Looked at # of seasons and Plate Appearances/Season

I’d say three of these hitters deserve to be the Hall of Fame – two of which are off the ballot and, for the most part, off the baseball radar.

Here are the players that get my vote (for whatever that is worth):

Mark McGwire – You can vote no because of the steroids but that’s the only possible reason to keep him out. Was he a so-so fielding 1B, slow, a bit fragile, and hit .263?  Yes, but he did two things awfully well – hit HRs and draw BBs. He ranks 4th all-time among 1B with 3000 plate appearances at OPS+ (Lou Gehrig, Albert Pujols, Jimmie Foxx are top three). He tops this group in every single stat except RBIs per 162 G (to Albert Belle).

Fun anecdotes:   1) Mark’s brother Dan was a 6′8″quarterback at San Diego State and was drafted in the 1st round of the 1991 NFL Draft by the Seahawks.  His pro career never took off.  2) The best way to treat backne is rice wine vinegar.

Dick Allen - Allen was a 1B/3B/OF that played from 1963-1977 for the Phillies and several other teams. The biggest knocks against him are his counting stats/lack of longevity (15 seasons/351 HRs), his poor defense, and a bad reputation. But his 156 OPS+ is off the charts vs. these other players and points to the fact that playing in a pitcher’s era has dramatically suppressed his counting stats.  If you factor in era and park, Dick Allen was a much bigger offensive force than Jim Rice (or anyone else on this list aside from McGwire).

See here for an interestingly subjective and strong-worded critique of Dick Allen by Bill James and a VERY interesting long-form piece on Dick Allen by Craig R. Wright.  I went into Wright’s piece thinking that Dick Allen was an Albert Belle type.  After reading it, I think their only similarities are their performance at the plate and the fact they played under two first names (Richie/Dick, Joey/Albert.

Fun anecdote:  Dick Allen was treated roughly by Phillie fans during his tenure – enduring obscenities, racial epithets, and even heaved flashlight batteries.  While many outside observers suspected racism was behind this unwarranted treatment, their persistent criticism of Caucasian-American Mike Schmidt in the 1970’s/1980’s proved that the City of Brotherly Love was color-blind when it came to harassing and criticizing homegrown stars.

Reggie Smith - A switch-hitting RF/CF who played from 1966-1982 for mainly the Boston Red Sox and Los Angeles Dodgers. Smith’s 137 OPS+ is above most of these players and his HR totals are suppressed because of his era and playing at Fenway (with most AB as a lefty) and Dodger Stadium. He was known for a strong arm and was good enough defensively to play about 1/2 his career at CF – a position where power numbers are much lower than the corner OF spots. There are only 8 players with 40% or more of their games at CF that have a better OPS+ than Reggie Smith. 7 are in the Hall of Fame (Mantle, Cobb, Speaker, Mays, DiMaggio, Hack Wilson, Snider). The 8th is Ken Griffey Jr. I’d say Reggie Smith is a borderline HOFer as a corner outfielder but his games at CF put him over the top.  It’s ridiculous that he only got one year on the ballot (after getting only 3 votes in 1988).

Fun anecdote:  Don Sutton and Steve Garvey got into a clubhouse fight in 1978 over comments by Sutton in the press that Reggie Smith was the Dodgers real MVP.  There are rumors, though, that this fight was spurred on by another Sutton quote, where he bragged, “I have a nicer perm than any of Garvey’s baby mommas.”

Here are the notes on the players that I vote thumbs down in order of how I’d rank them:

Albert Belle – Phenomenal hitter but he played only 12 seasons. Was bad in the field and an acknowledged asshole off of it. That’s the kind of thing that brings a borderline player down (vs. bump up a Kirby Puckett). But the fact he isn’t even on the ballot anymore – he got less than 5% of the votes in 2007 – is still ridiculous since he has a better case IMO than the guys below him on the spreadsheet.

Dale Murphy/Andre Dawson – Their OPS+ is just so-so for this list driven by their pedestrian OBPs (.346 for Murphy, .323 for Dawson). I boosted them on the lists because they put significant time in CF (Dawson played 1,027 games at CF), won a number of Gold Gloves, and had speed on the basepaths.

Anyone who watched Dawson play in the 2nd half of his career could see that the horrible Montreal turf probably robbed him of better stats.  I think what is less publicized – but brought up in this great piece by Baseball Dugout – is the fact that Dale Murphy came up through the minor leagues as a 6′5″ catcher.  Throw 400+ games as catcher and a decade at CF with almost no days off and it’s more understandable why he fell off so quickly in his early/mid-30’s.

Dale Murphy was undoubtedly a HOF CF player from 22-31 (a non-strike season average of 97/33/95/15/.281/.366/.510) but didn’t put together anything better than a league-average season thereafter (failing to clear a .252 AVG or .320 OBP  in 4 full seasons).  Much like Albert Belle, he probably needed 1-2 more peak seasons to warrant being voted into the HOF.  But he was so good in his peak and I can’t think of a CF in the past 30 years not named Griffey that could rival it.  I’d say Murphy is a ‘No’ but I could be convinced.

As for Dawson, his OBP is such an eyesore and his SLG wasn’t distinguished enough to counter it.  Dawson’s .323 isn’t even close to the lowest OBP for a HOF outfielder (Lou Brock – .343).   It’s a testament to the power of counting stats (he played 21 seasons) that he’s in contention vs. others on this list.

Fred Lynn – While Rice may have been overlooked vs. Lynn when they first started, it’s the opposite since they’ve been retired. Fred Lynn’s stats at a season by season level don’t look as good as he was always battling injuries – e.g., only 2 100+ RBI seasons.  But he also was a better than average fielder (4 Gold Gloves) at CF. That lifts him above the rest of these players with comparable OPS+ but still falls short of HOF-worthiness.

Jim Rice / Dwight Evans - Let’s compare the two longtime Red Sox corner outfielders.  Jim Rice had the showier AVG/HR/RBI but Dwight Evans wasn’t that far off. The AVG advantage should be disregarded since Evans had the better OBP (.370 v. .352). He also was a 7-time Gold Glove OFer who was known for a cannon arm.  Rice’s appeal to voters comes from his RBI totals, his ‘feared’ reputation, and his MVP votes. His RBI totals are impressive but – it should be noted – are aided by being in a great lineup (finished in AL top 3 of ABs with runners on base 5 times b/w 1981-1986), a hitter-friendly park, and having a ton of plate appearances/season (hard to argue that Evans wouldn’t have put up similar RBI numbers if Rice and Evans switched lineup positions).  Rice’s ‘feared’ reputation is not backed up by his Intentional Walk stats which fall below most of the players on the list.

Yes, Rice was a great hitter but when you compare his stats in a fair way vs. peers (OPS+, btWin), he’s just middle of the pack among great sluggers. And with no longevity (if he hits 500 HRs, he’s a lock) or other credentials (like defense or speed) to speak of, he falls below everyone above him on the list.  It’s arguable that he was the 5th best outfielder to play for the Red Sox in the 1970’s (Yastrzemski, Reggie Smith, Fred Lynn, Dwight Evans).

As for Evans, he was very good but not great for enough years – but he would’ve warranted more than 3 years on the ballot (1997-1999) if he hadn’t been such a late bloomer (his HR/RBI splits were 150/514 in his 20’s and 235/870 in his 30’s – those totals in his 30’s are about even with HOFers Eddie Murray and Dave Winfield).

Dave Parker – A great player during his time (1 MVP, 5 top 10 finishes, 7 All-Star games) with a cannon for an arm in RF. But his OPS+ and btWin are towards the bottom of this group. How can you vote him over Lynn, Murphy, or Dawson who had comparable stats and played CF?

Jack Clark – Impressive OPS+ driven by a good eye (high OBP).  His totals suffer from playing almost exclusively in pitcher stadiums. Yes, he was fragile and doesn’t deserve to be in the HOF but he warrants more consideration than just 7 votes in his only year of eligibility (1998)

Juan Gonzalez – Hard to make a case for Jim Rice and then not pre-vote in Juan Gonzalez. Won 2 MVPs vs. Jim Rice’s 1. Has similarly impressive HR/RBI stats (aided by park and lineup) that, once adjusted, show Juan Gonzalez was slightly better (132 v. 128 OPS+, 2.5 to 2.2 btWin). Despite this, I put him this low on the list given his fragility and his defensive/baseruning liabilities.

Jose Canseco/Darryl Strawberry – Phenomenal power/speed hitters during their peaks. One career made by drugs. One career derailed by them.

Mo Vaughn – Better stats than I would’ve thought – especially that .383 OBP. But only 13 seasons and his offensive stats aren’t that distinguished to overcome the lack of longevity.

Harold Baines – Good player for a long time. His comparably low OPS+/btWin + only 1 top 10 MVP finish + all those years at DH put him at the bottom of this list.

The Fantasy Baseball Hall of Fame (in conjunction with Razzball.com) is a new website dedicated to recognizing the accomplishments of Major League ballplayers during the “fantasy era” (1980-present). The greatest of these players will be elected to the Fantasy Baseball Hall of Fame.

1 – Barry Bonds
Where to start with the best baseball has seen this side of George Herman?   Maybe a list will suffice:

- Bonds has more 10 FBHOF Point seasons that any other.
- If 10 Points is the mark of “goodness”, the mark of greatness is 13.  Bonds has more of these than any other as well.
- He has taken longevity to the extreme.  Bonds is the only player to be Fantasy Worthy in 20 or more seasons and never have a single year in his career where an eligible season was deemed not worthy.
- He has had fourteen finishes as a Top-15 ranked batter, a mark 40% better than any other.
- His 5 year peak average is off the charts:  .317, 112 R, 45 HR, 112 RBI, 32 SB
- During various times in his career, Bonds has batted .370, hit 73 HR, scored 129 times, had 137 RBI, and stole 52 bases – there is nothing else he could have accomplished on the field of fantasy baseball.
- And if you were in On-Base leagues, well, he singled handedly carried many a team.

Bonds mark of 90.0 FBHOF points is best all time among hitters.  He’s first in any position in Career total, and his peak score of 77.6 is second only to Alex Rodriguez.  He’ll have a special write up for in commemoration of being one of a handful to accumulate 85 or more FBHOF points.

2 – Rickey Henderson
Henderson is another all time great that had an ability to combine power and speed like few others.  In his case, few others in the history of all baseball, and not just within the fantasy era.

Henderson owns the record for most career stolen bases, and given how precious these can be in fantasy baseball, we’ll start there.  He appeared in 90 or more games 21 times in his fantasy career, missing the mark in 1996 and 2002.  Of those 21 seasons, he stole 30 or more bases all but once.  He stole 40+ sixteen times, 60+ ten times, and 100+ three times, topping out at 130 in 1982.  Some whole fantasy teams don’t steal 130 bases today.

While not a great average hitter (.279 fantasy career, though he did reach .300 on seven occasions) he did walk a great deal (2190 career), which led to a prolific amount of run scoring.  He reached the 100 runs scored mark thirteen times and averaged 126 during his 5-year peak.

What truly set him above others of his ilk was the fact he could hit for some power.  He hit between 20 and 30 home runs four times, in 1985, 1986, 1990, and 1993, and on several occasions finished in the Top 20.

His best fantasy season was the first year he was with the Yankees.  In 1985 he hit .314 with 24 HR, 72 RBI, 80 SB and the # 1 rank in batters.  This was also good enough for 3rd in the MVP ballot behind teammate Don Mattingly and George Brett.  Mattingly also finished as the second best batter in fantasy baseball.

3 – Ken Griffey Jr.
4 – Sammy Sosa
The careers of the next two outfielders overlap almost perfectly, and given the fact they have almost identical FBHOF scores we’ll chart them in tandem.  First, a graph of their point totals by year.

Both started their careers in 1989 but with much different pedigrees.  Sosa signed for $3,500 as an amateur free agent in 1985 by the Texas Rangers.  He made the majors in 1989, but started slowly and did not become a major fantasy force until 1993 when he hit 33 HR and stole 36 bases.

At the same time, Griffey was the first pick of the draft in 1987, and had an impact immediately, and almost attaining the 10 FBHOF point mark in the second year of his career.  Griffey ultimately outpaced Sosa in each year through the 1994 season.  At the end of these first 6 years Griffey accumulated 63.8 FBHOF points to Sosa’s 19.2.  With exception of Griffey’s injury riddled 1995 seasons, this trend would continue through 1997, with the gap widening to 93.1 vs. 46.3

1998 and 1999 were banner years for both players with Sosa’s ‘98 campaign going down as one of the best seasons ever (and better than any of Griffey’s):  .308 AVG, 134 R, 66 HR, 158 RBI, 18 SB.  Griffey declined steadily from this point forward, routinely succumbing to injuries, though he did have a decent 8 FBHOF point season in 2005.

Sosa lasted a few more years, putting up 5 consecutive seasons of 10 or more FBHOF points.  His other great season was 2001 when he batted .328 with 146 R, 64 HR, 160 RBI, but no stolen bases.  Still, Sosa hung on at the tail end of his career until he hit rock bottom in 2005.

Let’s compare their years in point order instead of chronological:

Sosa’s best two years are better than Griffey’s best two, but Griffey picks up the slack topping Sosa by a fairly wide margin in the remaining 3 year peak period gives him the edge.  Further, though this does not specifically count in the induction criteria, Griffey’s best 6th through 9th seasons are better than the corresponding seasons for Sosa.  And if we simply add up the best 9 seasons for each, Griffey leads comfortably 113.8 to 107.0.

One last comment before moving on to the next player.  While both of these greats played in virtually the same exact years, Griffey’s stardom came a bit earlier than Sosa’s.  The offensive levels from 1991-1999 were lower than the same nine year period from 1993 -2002.  Sosa’s great years came during a time when many a player were having great years – proof of which can be seen in a 2 line table:

Top 10 Finishes Among Batters
Griffey – 6
Sosa – 4

5 – Dale Murphy
The two time Most Value Player was one of the premier outfielders of 1980’s.  His 16.6 FBHOF points in 1983 is 11th best of the fantasy era and his 5-year peak score is 10th best.

Murphy was a power hitter with the ability to steal a fair amount bases.  His 5 year peak average stat line was superb:  .294 Avg, 114 R, 38 HR, 109 RBI, 20 SB.  This was good enough for five Top-6 finishes among batters, two of which were the best of the outfielders in 1982 and 1983.

His career total of 109.7 FBHOF points is just 31st of all time since his peak was relatively short.  Thirty-four players have accumulated a score of 65 or better, the bogey used for induction (though special circumstances can aid one’s case as well).  However, only five retired players have less career points.

6 – Albert Belle
Belle was his generation’s version of a disgruntled Dale Murphy.  During his prime, few could hit a ball any harder.  His peak average of .318 AVG, 108 R, 44 HR, 131 RBI, and 11 SB is 9th best among batters.  But his career lasted just eleven seasons before an arthritic hip forced an early end to his career.

He was fantasy baseball’s best batter in 1995 and had seven total top-25 finishes.

7 – Andre Dawson
“The Hawk” is the first outfielder we’ve come across to require additional seasons beyond the peak 5 years in order to meet FBHOF requirements.  His peak score of 64.7 is very good, but just a hair shy of the magical 65.  Dawson did have 10 additional fantasy worthy seasons though, bringing his score up to a more than respectable 71.2.

His best run was in the early 80’s when on average he finished seasons ranked, on average, 7th.  This does not mean there were 6 better batters – over the four year stretch of 1980-1983 only Cecil Cooper was ranked higher.  The strike shortened 1981 season receives the most FBHOF points – in just 103 games he batted .302 with 71 R, 24 HR, 64 RBI, and 26 SB.  This was second best behind an extraordinary season from fellow FB Hall of Famer, Mike Schmidt.

The season most remembered was in 1987 after he hit 49 HR and drove in 137 runners.  1987 was an abnormal year for power hitters though, and this was good enough for ‘just’ 5th best.

Just Missed the Cut
The complete list of the Top 25 outfielders is as follows:

Quite a list for sure, but two names below the red line require additional commentary.

Dwight Evans was great, but had only two seasons where he was a top 5 outfielder.  He falls just short of the 65 FBHOF point mark and with a field as crowded as this, he doesn’t warrant induction.   Additionally, there appears to be a clear line separating Evans and those ranked above him.

Tony Gwynn certainly deserves his spot in the Baseball Hall of Fame, but he didn’t do quite enough at the plate to impact Fantasy Baseball like he did for the Padres.  FB Hall of Famers can sometimes get by being great in four of five categories, but only a relative few can do so in three.  In his peak 5-year period, Gwynn averaged just 9 HR and 73 RBI. For sake of comparison, Tim Raines averaged 11 HR and 55 RBI, but he also bested Gwynn by averaging 71 stolen bases during his peak, almost twice as many.