Fantasy Baseball Advice

For only the most wicked pissas, I’d considah Pedroia, a can of Budwisah and a replay of Doug Flutie at the Orange Bowl. For heaven, throw-in a hot broad and a Dunkin’ Donuts Coolatta. For Nahvana, I’m doing this in the same room as Denis Leary, Cam Neely and Pesky. But we can’t all be Massholes, so we look if Dustin Pedroia is a legit keeper and not just a wicked awesome keepah. In the forums, there was some discussion about whether Dustin Pedroia was a better keeper than Corey Hart. In early June, I said Corey Hart, easily. As you’ll see from that discussion, Pedroia wasn’t even that commenter’s second choice for who to keep. Two months later, Pedroia’s now batting fourth for the Sawx and he has as many home runs as David Ortiz. He’s a legit MVP candidate if you don’t pronounce your Rs. But can’t Pedroia be a keeper? Definitely for some people’s teams. His average should come down because of a high BABIP and the power might not be quite this strong next year, but at his position, he’s definitely a keeper. Just not against Corey Hart. Anyway, here’s some other fantasy baseball keepers for 2009:

Billy Butler - 7 HRs and is batting .318 since the All-Star break. (That’s 3 1/2 HRs for each moob.) I don’t think he’s going to be a 30/.300 guy next year, but as a deep league keeper, I like Butler.

B.J. Upton - But, um, he like had no homers this year? He’s young as dog balls and his swing is sweet. Or sweeeeeeet as you might say if you wanted to emphasis it but not go through the trouble of just thinking up a better word.

Josh Fogg - Psyche! Just making sure you’re paying attention.

Joey Votto - I already talked about how Votto was a solid keeper. Actually I talked about how he was Barbara Hershey and Jay Bruce was Bette Midler as they reenact the movie, Beaches, but you get my drift.

Yesterday, Carlos Zambrano was scheduled for an MRI but failed to show. Possible reasons why: A) He showed up five minutes late and his appointment was given away to Steve Bartman. B) The doctor looked like Michael Barrett. Z was escorted out. C) He decided to check out The Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants 2 instead. Z’s priorities are out of order. If you’re in your H2H playoffs , you need to cut bait and see who else is out there. In some leagues, I’m looking at Randy Wolf (I know, you just threw up a little in your mouth), but his confidence should be sky high after his complete game and he faces the Pirates next. Some other names I like that I’ve seen on various waiver wires include Slowey, Garza, Kuroda, Blackburn, anyone facing the Mariners, Nats or Padres. (BTW, if you’re in H2H playoffs, I think you’ll be able to appreciate one man’s H2H playoff breakdown.) Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Jim Johnson - About to have an MRI because his shoulder hurts? No, because Trembley’s an awful manager. Jamie Walker, Fernando Cabrera, Dennis Sarfate and as a dark horse candidate, Radhames Liz. And before the NAACP contacts me, I wasn’t being punny when I wrote dark horse.

Scott McClain - Hit his first HR of his career after 29 HRs in Triple-A. Some day Woody Harrelson will gain 120 lbs. and play him in the movie adaption of his life.

Pablo Sandoval - 2nd HR of the year. Benicio Del Toro will borrow the fat suit Adrian Grenier used in Medellin to play Sandoval.

Dave Bush - 5 IP, 6 ER. You saw Bush just sitting there and you couldn’t keep your hands off. Now you feel used and it burns when you pee. Serves you right.

Lance Cormier/Dennis Sarfate - Outdueled Dice-K but still lost. This is the number one reason why people don’t bet on baseball and why most of the time you’re better off to just go with your top guys. Baseball’s an unpredictable game day-to-day but fairly predictable over 162 games. And I officially sound like some crappy baseball announcer — see Don Sutton.

Dustin Nippert - 7 IP, 0 ER and only seven hits with no walks. Holy heffin’– Oh, it was the Mariners.

Jorge Campillo - 5 IP, 7 Ks. I kinda felt a decent start was coming because the Marlins do enjoy swinging and missing.

Joe Nelson - Got the save yesterday. Guess he’s the number two man behind the recently overworked Matt Lindstrom.

Dustin Pedroia - 17th HR yesterday. David Ortiz, 17 HRs.

Mark Reynolds - 4 Ks as he heads towards 200 Ks. You haven’t heard much about me fingercuffing Reynolds because I dropped him about two months ago in my Razzball league. I just couldn’t stand all of the home runs he was giving me. I still have him in a NL-Only league. In other news, yawn.

Yunel Escobar - Has a sore shoulder, supposedly he’s battled this all year. Yeah, and my excuse is I have a monkey writing these posts.

Troy Percival - Kazaam! More importantly, I wouldn’t pop your Wheelers just yet.

Alex Rodriguez - Hit a meaningless HR yesterday. Wait, Joe Maddon’s throwing his challenge flag! Cut to 2 minutes, 15 seconds later. Yes, it is a meaningless home run!

Dallas McPherson - After hitting 42 home runs in Triple-A, he made his first start yesterday. He walked twice and K’d. McPherson grew up masturbating to Adam Dunn. That’s sincerely a compliment.

Rich Harden - Arm discomfort. He reports it’s “nothing serious.” Yeah, and taco diarrhea doesn’t burn.

Wade LeBlanc - Top Padres pitching prospect made his major league debut and pitched like a Nats prospect, 4 IP, 5 ER. LeBlanc has a HR problem and there’s no way he’ll ever shake the Joey typecasting.

Blake DeWitt - HR yesterday. He’s been starting at 2nd base. If he can get that eligibility, his value goes from one dollar to one Euro.

Chris Dickerson - HR yesterday. Could he get to 10/10 in a month and a half? I wanna have shirts made up that say, “I (heart) Dick…” and on the back, “…erson.” What?

In 2005, Brandon McCarthy was an important part of that White Sox team that won the World Series even if he was left off the playoff roster. Tell us, Grey, tell us what you think of him now? Okay, but get off my lap. It’s totally weird. The Rangers want, nay, need him to step up and be a contributing member of their rotation in 2009. (2009?! Can you believe that shizz? 2009 seemed straight out of science fiction novels or maybe I’m just dating myself — which would suck cause then I would have to pick up the check — wocka wocka wocka.) He’s been prone to giving up the long ball in the past, which could be trouble in Arlington, but he might give you WHIP and Ks down the stretch while only sacrificing a bit on ERA. In 2009, he could be a sleeper. Stay tuned. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Jesus Flores - In a bizarre decision, Chase Utley tried to steal home while Ryan Howard was up to bat (maybe it’s not that bizarre considering how Howard has been lately, and by lately I mean all season). Chase ended up giving Jesus Flores a flying elbow and sending him to the doctor like Snuka after he was met by that coconut to the skull. I was impressed Flores held onto the ball, but would be shocked if he returned this season. I believe the Nats are left with Wil Nieves at catcher. In a league that only uses Nats players, I would think Nieves is still available. He should remain that way.

Aaron Harang - Just when you think he’s turned the corner, he puts it into reverse and runs over your foot.

Jon Niese - 3 IP, 5 ER and it could’ve been much worse. His curve looked legit, but he had the control of an incontinent person after eating a mango.

Zach Greinke - 7 IP, 2 ER. Maybe I got off the rails a little too early on this crazy train.

Carlos Zambrano - After the game, he complained of arm soreness. Tomorrow he’ll see Dr. Gryzlo, who once dated Wendy Wallace, who went to school with Tom Pewter, who used to go to the same car wash as Dr. James Andrews. Trouble! I’m hesitant about using Big Z in the near future as it becomes obvioius I was Jokey Smurf’d in one league where I traded for him. The Cubs are going with Sean Marshall and he could have some value if he stays in the mix for starts. This might be a blessing in disguise for the Cubs. They would’ve had to roll Big Z out there in the playoffs out of loyalty, whether he was good or not. Now if he’s injured, they can go with whoever is pitching well.

Clayton Kershaw - He looked fantas– Oh, Padres. Right.

Yusmeiro Petit - Didn’t look good yesterday, though a ten day lay off can do that. This might be the opening that Jobacum needs for an explosion on the scene.

Felipe Lopez - 2-for-3 with a HR. Honestly, Buddy Biancalana could still productive if he were being managed by LaRussa. It must be something in the water. Though I don’t think it’s water.

Matt Garza - I told you he would be bad against the Yanks. Now start him next time out against the Jays.

Dustin Pedroia - 16th home run yesterday. Big Papi sits at 17. (For what it’s worth, Papi hit a double into the right field corner yesterday that he used to send 20 rows back into the seats.)

Jeremy Guthrie - Will have his turn skipped this Wednesday. As I’ve been saying for a few weeks now, he’s a very risky play going forward.

Troy Percival - Was activated from the DL. It’s only a matter of time.

Andre Ethier - A double away from the cycle yesterday. Guarantee the people over at Elias Sports Bureau were scrambling to see if someone came within a double of a cycle back in 1920. “Bootstrap” Carlyle went 3-for-4, did he almost get a double? I must know!

Joba Chamberlain - Supposedly he’ll be out of the bullpen in 2009 as the Yanks remain cautious with The Joba Rules. They should institute Pavano Rules. Hit Pavano over the head with a blunt object, bury him in the Pine Barrens and let Joba start.

John Lackey showed Jered Weaver and Jake Peavy how it’s done. When your team gives you one run, you make shutout lemonade. After the game, one Angels fan said, “Lackey is twice the pitcher of Jim Abbott.” That’s 9 starts for Lackey this year and they’ve all been fantastic. 7+ IP every game. 2 runs or less in all except one (where he had 3). 6 Wins, sub-1.00 WHIP. Lackey hasn’t made a bad pitch since he tried to convince Arte Moreno to invest in his remake of Cop and a Half with John Lackey and Chone Figgins. I don’t know what they did to rehab his elbow but they should give a little bit to Kelvim Escobar. Now if he could only run for Vlad. As for Kevin Slowey, he pitched a complete game shutout. I touted Slowey all the way back in the beginning of May, while remaining realistic about his propensity for giving up home runs. I felt yesterday’s Brewers matchup wasn’t favorable for him, but I also told you Frenchy was a Buy in that May 3rd post, so I’ve had a few bumps along the way. However, if I may beat my own horn, in that May 3rd post I was probably 75% right. Seriously, doubt me. It makes me want to be better. Like Jerry Mcguire. Anyway, here’s what else we saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Chris Davis - Homered yesterday. In one of my leagues, he doesn’t clear waivers until July 3rd. Seriously, Yahoo, you suck. How has Yahoo become the de facto fantasy baseball service of choice? I’m leaning to returning to ESPN next year. (Of course my favorite will be CBS, but they charge. Then again, isn’t everyone paying money for real time stats on Yahoo? How is this okay? Chris Davis played in two games before he was even added. It wasn’t even like he was added the day after his at-bat. Yahoo is known for being the number one search engine ten years ago. They’re attempting to do some nonsense with new email addresses. I guess this is for the six people who don’t already have a work email, a personal email and a spam email. Yeah, I want a fourth email. A “I’m never going to use this email” email. You can now reach me at YahooFantasyBaseballSucks@Rocketmail.com.)

Mark Buehrle - I started him again last night and got another quality start. I’m worried that I’m pressing my luck. No whammy! No whammy! Ooh… 5 IP and 7 ER.

Eric Gagne - Untuck his shirt Sunday night as he was activated from the DL. Knowing Torres should remain the closer and trying to save (<—pun!) face, Gagne said he’d welcome any job the Brewers had for him. I have an idea. During the 7th inning sausage race, how about a new addition — the crapwurst?

Andy Pettitte - That’s 4 straight wins with a 1.00 ERA over 27 IP. Granted, that includes a start against OAK and SDG but he’s paid off Rudy bigtime as a 6th starter in two leagues.

Jim Thome - I said on Friday that I would be buying once interleague was over. He hit a home run yesterday. I’ve picked him up in a ten team league. Adam Dunn was happy to see me pickup Thome. No longer would he get mocked for wearing overalls and chewing straw.

Dustin Pedroia - Here he comes to save the day! Mighty Mouse has been on fire all month and is now over .300 with 8 HR and 9 SB for the year.

Edwin Encarnacion - Homered yesterday. Do you think he dreams of being Adrian Beltre when he grows up? All you need is one monster season, double-E!

Michael Cuddyer - From the files of 2007 fantasy baseball, I felt like I should mention this schmohawk, but he’s done nothing this year at all. Now he’s headed to the DL.

Oliver Perez - Shut down the Yanks. He’s the equivalent of a crazy hot chick.

A.J. Burnett - If Oliver Perez is like a crazy hot chick, AJ Burnett is like a crazier Oliver Perez.

Brandon Lyon - After blowing another Haren save, it’s quite apparent. He’s made a Brandon pact with Mr. Webb. Todd Jones has made a similar pact with an imaginary pitcher on the Tigers he’s named Todd.

(NOTE FROM GREY: Last week I sent out feelers to the top baseball team blogs to see if they would be generous enough to write a quick preview for their favorite team. So over the course of the next two weeks, mixed in with your daily fantasy info, you will get some of the most astute, in-depth coverage of teams around the major leagues for the upcoming 2008 season from the people that know these teams best. Each post will include a link to their site, please take time to visit these bloggers’ sites, because these posts are truly the tip of the iceberg for their team knowledge. Now enjoy the 2008 Boston Red Sox preview.)

If you had asked me a month ago, did I think the Boston Red Sox could win a World Series again in 2008, I probably would have said yes. And why not? The Sox kept the core of the 2007 World Championship Team (unlike 2004, when Pedro, Johnny Damon and Derek Lowe were allowed to leave…) and did not keep themselves so crazy busy running around in the off-season that they are exhausted (OK, Queer Eye for the Straight Guy WAS semi-amusing…) and, with the exception of some of the starting rotation being a little older (Tim Wakefield and Curt Schilling are both 41 years old) it is basically the same team (Doug Mirabelli notwithstanding…)And then all hell breaks loose–and Curt Schilling is out at least until the All-Star Break, if not forever, Josh Beckett throws a warm up pitch last weekend and comes up lame, Coco Crisp hasn’t played in nearly two weeks because of a groin injury, and Julio Lugo just started playing after missing more than a week with back problems of his own…

And yes, most of these are normal occurrences that happen during the spring, and if the Sox had another 2 weeks of Spring Training, like everyone else (except for Oakland) it probably would not have the same urgency. But since the Sox are looking at a 17-hour plane ride this Wednesday, plus playing their 1st two games of the 2008 campaign a little more than a week from now, its a huge deal, especially the Josh Beckett injury. Fortunately, he has started a rehab program to get him back into the rotation as soon as possible. Also, with the beginning of the season structured as it is, the Sox can go with a starting rotation of 4 for some time…hopefully enough time to get Josh back 100%.

That being said, here are my thoughts with regard to the 2008 version of the Boston Red Sox:

Needs to Improve: JD Drew, Julio Lugo, Coco Crisp, and Manny Ramirez: JD Drew (not including the Grand Slam in the post season) and Julio Lugo were abysmal last year. Yes, Drew managed to stay healthy (relatively speaking) and he is a very good right fielder (sorry, Trot), but Julio Lugo is even worse than advertised (19 errors, .968 fielding % and a 237 BA with 8 homers). Supposedly he had some sort of flu-thing going in the off-season in 2006 that caused his downturn in ‘07–we’ll see. Coco has never really lived up to the hitting hype he had with Cleveland, although he did make some spectacular plays in CF. Manny, coming off one of the worst seasons of his career (.296 with 20 homers), is supposedly all focused and coming off the best off-season training ever.

Can they repeat: Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, Mike Lowell, Hideki Okajima, and Josh Beckett: Everyone knows the story about Dustin Pedroia–Horribly awful in April (batting .179, and everyone is screaming for his head) he then goes on the a hot streak for the rest of the year, (.317 with 8 homers) including the post season (where he played with a broken hamate bone in his hand) and wins Rookie of the Year. Kevin Youkilis, his 1st year all year at 1st base, breaks the record for error-less games at 1st, and wins his 1st Golden Glove, also has his best year at the plate (.288 with 16 homers), Mike Lowell, (can you believe he was the “take him or you can’t have Josh Beckett” guy?) ANOTHER career season with 120 RBI’s and a .324 BA.

Then we have Josh Beckett (20-7, 3.27 ERA), the only 20 game winner in all of MLB last year (and the only 20 win season of his career), should have started the All-Star Game, and you always felt surprised when he was on the mound and the Sox lost–he was as much of a lock as anyone could be in baseball…except for Okajima. Everyone thought the Sox signed this guy to keep Daisuke Matsuzaka company! He ends up surpassing Daisuke, going 3-2 with 2.22 ERA–and completely baffling hitters with his odd delivery…

Can they maintain: Jacoby Ellsbury, Big Papi, Jon Lester, Tim Wakefield, Mike Timlin, and Jonathan Papelbon: Jacoby Ellsbury only played 33 regular season games with the Red Sox in 2007–and managed a .353 BA, 3 homers, and to steal 9 bases–he then gets into 7 games in the post season when Coco Crisp became a black sucking hole in the batting order, and proceeds to hit .360 on the big stage. He can’t possibly sustain THOSE kinds of numbers over 162+ games in a full season–can he?

Only Big Papi can hit .332 with 35 homers and be considered to have a “off year”. Dealing with the pain of a bad knee pretty much all season, David Ortiz hopes to put up more Papi-like monster numbers this year, as he is 100% recovered from him off-season knee surgery… Jon Lester, a year removed from his cancer ordeal, and winner of Game 4 of the 2007 World Series, Jon has said he has more strength and focus this year, and wants everyone to forget he is “the guy who had cancer”. He has a 4-0 season last year; with some flashes of brilliance. If he can reduce the “nibbling” around the plate, punish the strike zone, and stop getting himself into the high pitch counts, he will be better than just a #5 starter…

Everyone forgets that Tim Wakefield was kicking some serious butt last year before being felled with shoulder issues that kept him off the post season roster. Tying his highest win total (17) Wake chews up innings–and last year was no exception. He started 31 games and threw 189+ innings in 2007. Now that his shoulder issues are behind him, I expect Wake will give the Sox exactly what he always does–and anchor in the rotation–and 12-15 wins–and about 200 innings…Mike Timlin just turned 42, is going into his 6th year with the Sox, says this is his last year, and has made more than 1000 appearances. This guy has NOTHING left to prove. And while he always seems to let that inherited runner score, there has been many times when he has been on that mound, and you just KNEW no batter was going anywhere–except back to the dugout…

Speaking of keeping people in the dugout, is it possible Jonathan Papelbon can get BETTER? Everyone was so sure he would be in the starting rotation at the beginning of last year, until he wasn’t. And being careful with him actually worked, and he excelled in 2007, when he had 37 saves and a minuscule 1.85 ERA…and this year he has added a 3 pitch, a slider to his repertoire…

The Wild Cards: Curt Schilling, Manny Delcarmen, Clay Buchholz: Will Curt pitch ever again? He is on the infamous “rest and rehab plan” and only time will tell if it was the way to go. Manny Delcarmen has flashes of brilliance, and some say, some of the best pure stuff in the bullpen. If he can he harness that, he will be a force to be reckoned with. Clay Buchholz was shut down at the end of 2007 with shoulder fatigue–but in the off-season he added 10 lbs. of muscle and trained to be able to handle a full season of pitching. Can he be the phenom everyone hopes he can be?

Players in a class of their own: Jason Varitek: ‘Tek will never be a force at the plate (.255 with 17 homers in 2007. But behind the plate is entirely different story. His preparation and attention to detail has earned him the respect of pitchers, catchers and players all over major league baseball. No one is better than handling a staff mixed with veterans and rookies alike–NO ONE…without him, Sox don’t win–nuff said.

Everyone else: The mix of bench players (Alex Cora, Sean Casey, Kevin Cash, et al) and the bullpen guys (Kyle Snyder, Julian Tavarez, Javier Lopez, et al), will play a huge part in how rested, loose and focused the rest of team is. The backup guys need to get it done as well, whether its giving rest to a player in need of a day, or stepping up when someone goes down with an injury.

Making predictions with regard to how teams end up when its all over is usually not my thing–162 games is a LONG time. Anything and everything can happen–and usually does. Despite that, I do think the Sox will be in the mix again come the post-season. But there are a lot of very good teams out there (Cleveland, Tigers, etc) so by no means do I feel its a forgone conclusion the Sox will get the World Series.

But I am hoping…

Christine
Boston Red Thoughts
Red Sox Commentary from a Red-Headed Boston Fan in Yankeeland