Fantasy Baseball Advice

That title there, that’s country speak. This here boy, Adam Dunn, he’s country strong and this, folks, this is the 2nd half of the baseball season. Let’s git ‘r Dunn! Since July 6th, Adam Dunn has 6 hits in the last 8 games. Guess how many of those were home runs. Go ahead. I’ll wait. *scratches head, picks ear, adjusts macksack* 6 of 6 were home runs. My man’s predictable. In. The. Best. Way. Possible. Yesterday, I went over how precious time is from now until the end of the season. (I’m not talking precious like making sure you go see your kids play soccer or some shizz.) If you need home runs, there are so few guys that could put up 20 home runs in the 2nd half. Dunn is one. Now will Dunn’s average make you long for the days of Tony Pena Jr.? Maybe. But a funny thing happened on the way to the end of last season. Dunn hit .273 post-All-Star Break. Zoinks! Say what, karaoke? You heard me. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Joe Blanton – This is a lot better move for real baseball than it is for fantasy baseball. I’d throw a few dollars towards him in an NL-only waiver claim or I’d use a mid-level waiver claim. Yes, this is coming from the guy who preaches you should use your waiver claim fast and furious. Why do I say only a mid-level claim for Joe Blah? Cause I don’t really want him in any league, even in an NL-only league.

Chris Iannetta – 2-run HR. I keep getting questions in the comments or the forum about this guy. Grey, should I go with Pudge over Iannetta cuz, like, he has a starting job? Doooode, if you’re forced to have Pudge on your team, you should hope he loses the starting job. Iannetta has 10 HRs in a timeshare. You won’t take 3 or 4 good days a week instead of 6 crappy ones? Not to mention, Iannetta’s going to be getting more and more time in front of Torrealba.

Adam LaRoche – He’s at .415 for the month. If you picked him up today, you care what his April was like? That was rhetorical.

David Wright – Jerry Manuel did such great work to get Wright to hit a HR today. That was sarcastic.

Johan Santana – Tagged for 5 ER in 4 IP. After the game, he was seen dialing up his old friend, Kyle Lohse, for advice.

Marcus Thames – Hit his 18th HR in like 15 at-bats or something. I think if Thames and Dunn were in the home run derby we’d see 50 HRs and our first strikeout.

Francisco Cordero – Gave up 4 ER, 6 hits in 1/3 of an inning. I just traded him in one league with Fuentes for Ellsbury. Now I know how Tina Turner felt when Ike died. Phew.

Edwin Encarnacion – HR yesterday. I was going to put Double E on my top 100 for the 2nd half. Besides him having a good post-All-Star break last year, I couldn’t find a way to justify it. Encarnacion could be solid again, but my faith left the building.

Troy Glaus – 2 HRs. Glaus is another one that almost made the list. I pardon you. Glaus has been torrid of late. If a guy is hot for one month after the All-Star break, then you drop him for some other hot schmohawk in Augtember, you’ll be doing fine. Cust kayin’.

Kyle Lohse – 2 ER in 7 IP and Lohse moved to 12-2. Lohse says he owes it all to a chimpanzee named Ed, who turned out to be a best friend and a hirsute matchmaker of hilarious proportions. With Lohse and the chimp’s help, the Cards just might win the pennant!

Jake Peavy – Gave up four HRs and lost to Lohse. After the game, Peavy said, “I gotta get me a chimp.”

Jon Lester threw a no hitter against the Kansas City Royals yesterday (in case you were in a cave and didn’t hear). That goes to show you what getting rid of a locker room cancer can do for a team. Going forward, I see nothing remarkable from Lester. Just one of those things that happens. If you decide he needs to be on your team because you’re a sucker for feel-good stories, you should expect to take a hit on WHIP. It’s not just the walks, he gives up hits by the truckload, as well. Let someone else grab Lester and be the martyr. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday:

Jake Peavy – Jake Peavy is going on the DL with a bad elbow. Padre fans moan, “Why couldn’t it have been ANY of our hitters….well, except A-Gonz.” Don’t panic on Peavy; he’s been on the DL before. You’re not going to get good value for him anyway.

Albert Pujols – Pujols hit 2 HRs in Petco. Impressive. Ryan Ludwick hit a HR and a double. Impressive and a bit more surprising. Cesar Izturis hit a homerun in Petco. Did they build another shorter fence for the game like they did in the Astrodome for the Bad News Bears?

Aramis Ramirez – If you can somehow trade a hot starter (Volquez!) for him, do it. Aram’s the quietest .300/35/100 guy in recent memory.

Geovany Soto – Soto’s done everything else, why wouldn’t he get an inside the park in under 17 seconds? Why? No reason, so he did.

Josh Hamilton – Now Josh Hamilton lets his bat say crack.

Joe Borowski – How anxious are the Indians for Blowrowski to return? The Indians said they want him to only throw one inning in the minors. I’m sure Borowski’s fantasy owners are just anxious.

Adam Dunn – Dunn hit another home run. If he hits in 8 straight, the Reds owner promised he’ll let Dunn bring his pet blue ox, Babe, into the clubhouse.

Frank Thomas – Frank Thomas hit 2 HRs. More amazingly, he made it around the bases twice.

Alex Rodriguez – Looks ready to return on Tuesday. Looks like Eric Karabell’s sister, Stephania Bell’s prediction that Arod will be out until the All-Star break might be a bit wrong.

Brett Myers – In The Bank, Punchy would’ve gave up at least three more runs against the Nats. If Myerly were a word, it would mean struggling.

Shawn Hill – He’s going to be skipped because of elbow soreness. I said he’d be very usable when pitching, I never said he’d stay healthy.

Max Scherzer – If Doug Davis were returning from a suspension because he had drank a quart of Popov and urinated in the Chase Field pool, then I’d say Scherzer might hold his rotation spot, but Davis is returning from cancer. I mean, c’mon, it’s The Big C. That’s some feel-good shizz. BTW, Big week for cancer survivors.

Howie Kendrick – Word on the Streets of Bobby Grichville, Kendrick is going to need at least another week.  I’m not a huge fan of him when he’s healthy and it’s beginning to seem like he may never be healthy.

Jay Bruce could be called up from the minors relatively soon. So I figured I should give you a breakdown, but then Baron Von Vulturewins, a regular commenter in the Razzpound and an all-around good guy (actually, he could be writing in from jail, I have no idea), did a great breakdown of Jay Bruce in the comments. So without further ado — the Baron on Jay Bruce (I edited some for breadth), “Pros: Jay Bruce is the consensus top prospect in baseball. He’s most often compared to Larry Walker — i.e. big power potential with speed and high avg., i.e. tasty. He’s currently at .366 AVG, 8 HR, 33 RBIs, 7 SB, .662 SLG in Triple-A. (And he started slow, so he’s been on an absolute tear of late.) Baseball Prospectus’ notoriously gloomy PECOTA projections put him at 29 HR this year (assuming a full season in the bigs, I’m guessing.) …All the indicators are there for Jay Bruce to succeed: bad team with several trade-bait veteran OFs, a local media clamoring to get this kid to the show — he’ll be playing in one of the NL’s premiere bandboxes, i.e. Cincy.

Cons: Two years ago, Alex Gordon was the CTPiB (consensus top etc.) and, well, we’ve seen that he hasn’t turned into “Boog Powell minus eighty pounds of custard” quite yet. (Some of us have watched this more closely, and more painfully, than others.) Cincy has a long, inglorious history of carrying one too many OFs, and driving fantasy owners insane with idiotic non-platoon OF switcheroos (see: Freel, Ryan). This is all compounded by the fact that Dusty Baker also has a history of mishandling/not trusting young players, though he seems to have put his faith in Joey Votto this year, which augurs (Word of the Day) well for Bruce.

Bottom line: Bruce could well go the way of Gordon ‘07, or he could just as easily go the way of Braun ‘07. Having missed out on the latter last year through pure Yahoo!-induced phenom fatigue (they hype everyone like they’re a young Babe Ruth, so by mid-May, you’re tuning it out) I don’t plan to miss out on it this year. So my money’s on Bruce. Given what you have to invest — i.e. nothing, save a bench spot for a few weeks.” Well said, Baron. I agree, if you have a bench spot, go for Bruce. I had Ian Stewart for a week on my bench and it didn’t cost me anything. Stewart didn’t get the call, so I dropped him. No harm, no foul. Rudy dropped Betancourt to pick up Bruce in our ten team friends’ league. If you have the spot, it makes sense to take a flier as they say in the biz (which biz that is, I’m not sure). Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday:

Ryan Braun – Now he’s just trying to make me look foolish.

Mike Napoli – The Italian-American put a hit out… of the park. Twice. If you have Pudge on your team, you’re just not trying hard enough. Or you’re Pudge’s cousin, and you promised your aunty.

Jake Peavy – Hopefully he misses just one start. But in reality, you kinda want him to miss as many starts as it’s going to take so he returns in good health. Unless he misses half a season, then you want to bang your head against the wall. Repeatedly. Until you draw blood.

Adam Dunn – The prevailing thought is he’s going to hit .240 and 40 home runs. I think he can get his average up to .270 and hit 40. He currently sits on .221 and 10 home runs. And .221 and 10 home runs asks Dunn to please stop sitting on them, so we’ll see.

Cliff Lee – For those holding onto him, I hope this was a blip. For others, who heeded my advice to trade him, this might be the beginning of the correction. Muahahaha…

Edinson Volquez – Strong outing, but he was wild. His history shows he can be very wild. He could hit a month or two spell where he’s unusable. Cust kayin’.

David Ortiz – There’s no reason to think you have to sell him now that he went deep. He’s going to do what he do.

Carlos Villanueva – You can’t start Chuck NewVillage at this point. Even in deep leagues.

Jeff Clement – Mariners decide the future is Jose Vidro. Mariners fans should decide to shit Bavasi’s house like Ronald Miller did in Can’t Buy Me Love.

Jeremy Guthrie – Was one of the pitchers I suggested you grabbed when Smoltz, Hill and Gallardo decided to wipe their asses on your fantasy team. He pitched well against a poor team. Would’ve been nice to see him strikeout a few more Nats. Actually, wouldn’t been nice to see him strikeout one Nat, but Wily Mo didn’t play, so there was that.

Kevin Slowey – Didn’t look as bad as his final line, but he has to cut back on home runs.

Edwin Jackson – At this point, he needs to be owned in every league.

Chris Perez – Not sure if he’s going to take over as the closer, but he should be owned if you’re utilizing middle men and potential closers.

Jo-Jo Reyes – Another pitcher I pegged as a fill-in for the Smoltz/Hill/Gallardo crapfecta. He looked extremely well and he has upside, but he said he’s pitching with a blister. That makes him iffy going forward.

Manny Acosta – Looks like Bobby Cox doesn’t have Acosta on his fantasy team. He brought Ohman, the lefty specialist, to start the ninth, which nullified the save chance for Acosta.

Justin Duchscherer – Looked usable, but he doesn’t seem like he can go deep enough in games for many wins.

Adrian Gonzalez – Seriously, the Padres would’ve lost some close games in the dead ball era. Gonzo is like the Padres “Home Run” Baker. (That’s the old-timey player who led the league with 12 home runs. Imagine playing fantasy baseball back in the 1910s. There would’ve been a ten way tie for home runs with one. Someone would’ve got three runs and two RBIs in a week and would’ve walked to victory in H2H. The top pitcher taken would’ve been Babe Ruth and when you heard he wasn’t going to pitch anymore, he would’ve been a steal in the late rounds. 1500 max innings pitched would’ve been reach by June. And you would have named your fantasy teams like My Team’s Fat Like Taft, Cy Young Is The Best Pitcher And Needs An Award, and A Hit Like Franz Ferdinand (and you wouldn’t have been talking about the band).

Ichiro Suzuki – Up to 20 steals. Wow, never a huge fan of Ichiro, but 20 steals already. Last year, he had 23 steals before the All-Star break. I think you should start exploring trade options if someone thinks he’s going to get to 60 steals. I mean, he might, but you already have a third of his steals if he does, so you’ve had your fill. Now stop being greedy.

J.J. Hardy – Hit his second home run of the season. Looks like he’s coming out of his season long slump.

Cliff Lee threw nine innings of shutout ball to lower his ERA to 0.67. Seriously, he’s not Bob Gibson. He wasn’t even the best pitcher in his game last night. Shaun Marcum got him there. If someone’s buying into Lee’s early season performance, can you command a high offensive guy in a trade? You can try. His brother from another mother, Carlos Lee? Maybe. Markakis? Rios? Tex? Possibilities. This is why you have to send out feelers. Cliff Lee will be untradeable at the first sign of trouble. He doesn’t have a track record to instill much confidence. If you can’t get someone to trade Lee to right now, you have to hope he has a career year and doesn’t regress to his career norms. His peripherals all look solid, but history tells us he’s not what he’s been thus far. I would not trade for Cliff Lee (unless the owner is worried the correction is coming and wants to undersell him). Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday:

Erik Bedard – Gave up 6 ER in 2 IP. Blowing a 5 run cushion after the top half of the 1st inning. In fairness, Texas has a really deep lineup: Kinsler, Young, Hamilton, Bradley…. Um… Toby Harrah, a guy named Murphy, a Boggs that only plays like he drank 70 beers and Chuck Norris.

Eric Gagne – He pronounced himself fit to close. Other fifteen NL teams agree with him.

Alexis Rios – With Wells’s injury, he’s now batting third. But in one game yesterday, Wilkerson led off. Wilkerson was cut by a team that is starting Jose Vidro at DH.

Adam Wainwright – Co-Chief Officer of Razzball saw a blip on the radar.

Clay Buchholz – The argument over who’s better — Buchholz or Philip Hughes — rages on. Phil Hughes might take the lead soon buoyed by a stint on the DL for a fractured ERA.

John Van Benschoten – Rudy picked him up for his Razzball team. How could he not take a flier on a Pittsburgh starter with Bench in his last name? His 4 IP with 6 ER and 11 base runners were all he could’ve hoped for. Can’t wait for San Francisco to bring up their 1B prospect Bobby Easyout.

Adam Dunn – He has to be the worst RBI guy ever for a 40 HR player. Best case scenario with men in scoring position – sac fly. 5 for 29 with men in scoring position — 11Ks. Last 3 years (2005-2007), he’s hitting .236 with runners in scoring position. Someone tell Dusty that Dunn should be hitting 1st or 2nd. He’s great for OBP. Keep him out of the middle of the lineup.

Barry Zito – He got a victory against the Astros last night. A moral victory. Get the man some orange slices.

Adam LaRoche – He slumped in April like he does every year. 4 HR in last 9 games. He’s got to be available in some leagues.

Livan Hernandez – He’s 6-1. Johan Santana is 4-2. Silva and Lohse continue to get rocked. The Twins are geniuses! (It’s just a matter of time before Nick Punto explodes like Pat Neshek’s elbow.)

Dioner Navarro – Okay, I promised not to say his name again, but I keep getting questions about Johjima and Pudge. Those schmohawks should not be on a team, except in the deepest of leagues. DNV (<—-forced nickname) went three-for-three with 2 RBIs. He’s now batting .363 over 72 at-bats. Last year’s post-All-Star break numbers were 30/8/31/.285/2 in 179 at-bats. He’s only 24.

Wladimir Balentien – Mentioned two weeks ago how Rudy grabbed Wlady while I grabbed Lind, just to spread the Razzball love even though I liked Balentien more. Yeah, I should’ve just grabbed Wlad the Impaler.

Jair Jurrjens – With two outs, Freddy Sanchez got a double that scored three. It was a clutch hit, but Jurrjens looked just fine. I’m still buying.

Aaron Harang – He didn’t pitch that well, but won. See what I mean about wins. Yeah, he’s 70th and Webb’s 10th overall.

Rafael Furcal – Lands on the 15-day DL with a strained lower back. Hope Mia Hamm has a cute friend for him.

Fausto Carmona – Another guy I’m not sold on. His 18/35 K/BB is a disaster waiting to happen.

Mike Jacobs – He was supposed to be back in the lineup last Friday. Not according to me — according to the Marlins. Seriously, teams should be required to release accurate injury reports. I’m having trust issues!

Luis Castillo – Looks like he might be headed to the DL with a strained quad. Castillo has had strained quads for 6 years. That’s like putting Willie McGee on the DL for ugliness.

Josh Hamilton – He is the only player in the majors who has gotten better since he’s been off drugs.