Fantasy Baseball Advice

Note: Besides providing advice and news on fantasy baseball, we at Razzball created and now sponsor a game where the goal is to manage a team and compile the worst stats.  These Historical Spotlights honor those players who would’ve excelled in such a format.   See here for more info. See here for the summary of the inaugural 2008 season.

True love is rare.  True love means not just accepting the good and the bad – it means never even thinking to judge.  True love is a warm embrace – like a passionate wet kiss you don’t want to end, a steamy mug of cocoa that you don’t want to stop drinking, a fever that you never want to leave your system….

True love is what Houston Astros owner Drayton McLane Jr. feels for our Razzball Historical Spotlight inductee Brad Ausmus.

Brad Ausmus (an Americanized version of the popular German surname Ahsmünch) is a hard man not to love – especially if you were a Jewish mother with a single daughter.  A good Jewish boy out of Connecticut, graduated from Dartmouth, a successful professional…(you could do worse…)

He began his career in the Yankee farm system and was plucked from their roster in the 1992 expansion draft (along with Charlie Hayes and Carl Everett) for the Rockies and Marlins.  After a couple of years on the Padres and Tigers, he was part of part of possibly the most Razztastic trade ever -  an 8 person trade b/w the Tigers and Astros that included Ausmus and 2 other Razzball Spotlight members (Jose Lima, Brian L Hunter).  It was as if Detroit traded GM and Chrysler to Houston for Enron.

Ausmus’ initial 2 year stint (1997-1998) in Houston resulted in okay hitting and two first round playoff losses.  When Ausmus wasn’t hitting for the collar, he and his open collar hit on Houston girls.

In what McLane would later say was “The biggest mistake of my life”, the Astros found the trade receipt and returned Ausmus to Detroit.  Ausmus made the All-Star game in 1999 with Detroit – the benefits of playing for a crappy team and rules requiring each team has at least one representative.  The Astros managed to make the playoffs in 1999 only to lose again in the 1st round.

In 2001, McLane listened to his heart and re-traded for Ausmus.  The trade came just in time as Ausmus was set to embark on a Razztastic eight season hitting stretch during which he plumbed levels that had never been plumbed before.  Now if you’re the type that thinks Ausmus is the Bossmus (i know at least one), you’re probably thinking, “Was Ausmus really any worse a hitter than all those light-hitting catchers I grew up with?”  Well, let’s look at the stats…

The best way to compare vs. previous eras is to use the OPS+ metric which adds OBP and SLG then factors in league and park averages.  Ausmus’s 2001 (57), 2003 (55), 2004 (63) and 2006 (54) mark the 3rd, 4th, 15th, and 7th lowest OPS+ seasons by any catcher with 448+ plate appearances since 1930.  No other catcher even managed two seasons in their career that were as bad as this crappershop quartet Ausmus produced in a six year period.  In 2002, he became the 2nd player in the last 100+ years to hit into at least 30 double plays and not hit 30 extra base hits.  He managed the GIDP>XBH feat again in 2006 with 21 GIDP to 19 XBH.

When asked to pack Ausmus’ ‘tools of ignorance’, the equipment guys would pack his bats instead of his catching equipment.  His hitting was so cartoonish that opposing pitchers would call the Astro hitter “Rad Rausmus”.  Tony LaRussa laid awake at night wondering if he coached Ausmus whether he’d hit him 9th and let the pitcher hit 8th or would he keep Ausmus 8th and have him bunt and let the pitchers swing away.  But all the while, the Astros kept penciling his name in the lineup card – praising him for everything from his defense to his handling of his pitchers to the pristine condition of his game-used bats.

Starting in 2007, the Astros realized that they couldn’t count on Ausmus (then 38) to forfeit the 8th spot in the lineup forever.  Ausmus took Eric Munson under his wing in 2007 but Munson’s 74 OPS+ proved too competent and he was promptly waived at the end of the year.  Ausmus graciously took a backup role to J.R. Towles in 2008 and watched as Towles exploded onto the Razzball scene with an otherworldly .137 AVG and 34 OPS+ in 146 ABs.

While Ausmus maintained his torpid streak of hitting in 2007-2008 despite additional rest and more favorable matchups, he could see the writing on the wall.  He realized the only way he could repay the love that McLane and the Astros showed him was to heed Sting’s advice and set them free.  Carlos Lee even offered to pay his salary but Ausmus refused, stating “It’s certainly flattering but I had an unprecedented 8 year run here.  My job is done.  Plus, as Carlos’s accountant, I had to advise against it.”

Ausmus is currently trying to sign on with a Southern California team.  One would think his bat would fit in just perfectly with San Diego.  Until then, he’ll be hitting the waves – hopefully more successfully then his hitting of baseballs.

Brad Ausmus – Jewish Sports Hall of Fame honoree and now Razzball Historical Spotlight inductee.  You’ve made us so proud, bubelah!

Update:  Funny tribute video by the Astros for Ausmus.  Nice to see they have a sense of humor about this stuff.

Okay, the Final Jeopardy answer is 107/40/118/.302/8.  Do do do do do do do do… doot do do do do do do… What is Bill James predicting Chris Davis will do in 2009? That’s correct! “What is Bill James smoking?” would have also been accepted.  Those numbers look a lot like MVP numbers.  I’ll shave my ‘stache if Chris Davis wins the MVP in 2009.  That’s right, I said it!  Marcel Projections have Chris Davis in 2009 at 54/16/55/.288/3.  Our 2009 Fantasy Baseball Projections, which is using only the Marcel Projections as of right now, has Chris Davis at -3.23 in 313th place.  Between Akinori Otsuka and Tom Gordon, one guy who didn’t pitch last year and another guy who hasn’t pitched well since Stephen King wrote a book about him.  And I think Stephen King gave up writing books to write for EW ten years ago.  There’s got to be some in between with these projections, doesn’t there? Somewhere in the middle isn’t so bad.  Ask Monie Love, Malcolm or lunchmeat.  So what can we expect from Davis in 2009 and why is he a fantasy sleeper?

He’s a sleeper because he’s being drafted after some other 3rd basemen whose names I curse, such as Ryan Zimmerman, Garrett Atkins and Aubrey Huff.  Chris Davis will hit more home runs than these three schmohawks.  Shoot, he already beat Bummerman in 2008.  In 26 less games, Davis hit three more home runs than Zimmerman.  Then there’s Atkins, someone who might want to start eating carbs again.  In 300 extra at-bats, Atkins only hit four extra home runs.  Then there’s Huff… Does anyone really want Huff?  Wasn’t that Showtime show enough?

In 2009, I think Davis’s OBP will rise a bit, his BABIP will come slightly down and his average will stay about where it was in 2008, the .285 range.  He’s country strong and can do The Mashed Potato like Dee Dee Sharp.  His strikeouts are a bit of a concern, but he was able to maintain a decent average in the minors with all of those Ks.  His upside is greater than a lot of guys going into the 2009 season, but, as is often the case, his risk is greater too.  I’m going to preach some caution because of his youth and the Ks.  I think he should get to 85/30/95/.280/2 in 2009. When the top corner infidels are off the board in mixed leagues, Chris Davis is someone to grab.  He should go after guys such as Zimmerman, Huff and Atkins, but give much better numbers.

Rafael Furcal returns to the Braves, which can’t be a good thing for 2009 fantasy baseball owners. I mean, it can, but it probably won’t be. This move will have people slightly too excited about Furcal.  Then you throw in his great April in 2008 — hitting .357 with 5 home runs and 8 steals in only 36 games.  Again, this could lead to unrealistic expectations.  36 games does not a season make.  Don’t think Furcal has a .350+ average in his tuba case.  He doesn’t.  Last year, Furcal had a BABIP of .380 in April.  A number that would’ve came down if he played the rest of the season, leading Furcal to be the .285 hitter he is. Hey, a 15/35, .285 hitter is nothing to sneeze at. Oh, yeah? Well, atchoo! No, that wasn’t Casey Kotchman with mono. Furcal is now 31 and hasn’t had a productive season in three seasons.  Maybe he can rebound like Yao Ming, but Furcal’s now coming off back surgery.  Does that still sound promising to you?  It shouldn’t.  If Furcal drops in your 2009 fantasy baseball draft, then, by all means, pounce like Davey Boy Smith, but I don’t want any part of Furcal before the tenth shortstop off the draft board. Unless, and once again for the hyperopic, UNLESS Furcal moves to second base.  Which brings us to…

Yunel Escobar/Kelly Johnson – Um, wasn’t Yunel going to play short?  Okay, so either a trade is going to happen — which Peavy, his family and his goumadas will welcome already — or Kelly Johnson will go to the outfield, Yunel to short and Furcal to 2nd base or Furcal stays at short and Yunel and Kelly Johnson split time at 2nd.  If Yunel doesn’t get out of Turner South and the last option comes to fruition, this could really hurt Yunel Escobar and Kelly Johnson’s 2009 fantasy value. Stay tuned!*

*This post was brought to you by TBS and Frank TV.

UPDATE: Turns out that airline ticket was nonrefundable and this post was brought to by KTLA.  I still think Furcal is nothing more than the tenth shortstop off the board.  What I said about him above doesn’t change. That’s what I see for Rafael Furcal in 2009.   Thankfully, this doesn’t effect Yunel and Johnson like I feared.

There’s only two types of years for AJ Burnett.  He’s either playing hard because it’s a contract year or he’s hardly playing because he contracted an injury.  Unless the Yanks are willing to give him a new contract every year to add to this one (which is definitely possible with the Yank$), our guess is that this will be a lot closer to a Pavano redux than a Mussina repeat.  For now, Burnett becomes the Yankees number two pitcher, though Wang might have a thang to say about that. Or maybe Joba will be considered the number two by the end of 2009.  So what say I about Burnett for 2009 fantasy baseball?

Burnett’s fairly unpredictable and now that he has a contract it’s almost guaranteed that he’s not going to be as productive in 2009 as he was 2008.  He’ll probably go in 2009 fantasy drafts sometime in the second fantasy pitching tier (think Dice-K, Haren, Shields), though he’s more likely to give you value of the third or fourth tier with all his injuries, i.e. Burnett’s overrated. But, and this is J. Lo-sized but, if he can make it through 2009 healthy, Burnett could give you 18 to 20 wins, a mid-3 ERA and 200+ Ks. In 2009 fantasy baseball drafts, this is the kind of guy I would grab if my pitching were already stacked. Let me explain, you’re in a keeper league and you already have Johan and Halladay. Here, you grab Burnett because if he flames out in 2009 — no big whoop, you’re already set with a solid one and two starter.  In all other cases where AJ’s drafted like he probably will be in 2009, I’d let someone else take a chance on The AJ Burnett Variety of Injuries Show.

Two things really stood out for this 2009 fantasy baseball mock draft. 1) I was not familiar enough with the draft interface. 2) It’s November. Hey, Grey got a calendar! Awesome! Yes, the date is obvious, smart ass. I’m just pointing out the obvious because so much will change between now and January, let alone March, that it’s very difficult to evaluate this mock draft. I will still do my best in my inimitable style. Yo, I’m inimitable! The draft was held at Mock Draft Central and organized by The Fantasy Man. Before I get to my thoughts, written as I was drafting, here’s my fantasy baseball team for the first mock draft of 2009:

As we went along, here’s my observations. Mock me, if you like:

1st and 2nd Rounds: The draft began pretty poorly because I was logged into my MDC account, but I guess there was another account made for me. I wasn’t aware of this until ten minutes into the draft. So it was my pick (12th out of 12 teams) right when I entered. The draft chat went basically like this. “Grey, you in?” “Yup.” “You’re up.” I look at the clock to see I have 28 seconds for my first two picks. I grabbed Upton and Holliday.  I’m severely computer-stupid so this could’ve all been my fault and I don’t blame Mock Draft Central. I’m sure if I were doing this draft in 2009, I would’ve been better prepared with the draft interface. In fact, I’m better acquainted with MDC’s software now from just doing this one mock draft.

3rd and 4th Rounds: I was eyeing my old standby Alexis Rios (who is now Alex Rios. Or maybe it’s Alex is Rios?), but he was taken right before my turn. I was scooped, ya’ll! I went with Webb and Adrian Gonzalez. My thoughts during this round, “Where the eff did all of the 1st basemen go already?” Seriously, Gonzalez or Lee were my choices. I don’t want Lee, whose numbers are beginning to resemble a 2nd baseman. Some other guys that went in the 4th round who I wouldn’t want this high: Cliff Lee, Victor Martinez, Joe Mauer and Garrett Atkins.

7th and 8th Rounds: Soto went in the 7th round. I’m not a fan of grabbing top catchers, but that was really good (mock) value. I grabbed Oswalt and Stephen Drew in these rounds. Kazmir went right after Oswalt, and I contemplated him for a brief second, but decided Oswalt was a bit safer. Drew will be my 2009 crush. I’ll cover him ad-nauseum during this offseason. Ronnie, Bobby, Ricky and Mike, I like Drew. Who cares who you like?

9th and 10th Rounds: I grabbed Matt Capps and Francisco Cordero, the top two closers left on the board. I contemplated Marmol and Huston Street instead of the aforementioned schmohawks, but I didn’t grab them because of the uncertainty right now (in November) of their closing situations. Billingsley went right after Capps and I mock kicked myself that I didn’t grab him. BTW, Triumph, the Insult Comic Dog just came on my iTunes. I do not keed.

11th and 12th Rounds: All right just grabbed Posada and Saito by accident. I timed out and it Auto-Selected for me. This was my error because I was typing up the last paragraph and jamming to Triumph, the Insult Comic Dog. By the time I looked up, I had Posada and Saito. I wouldn’t draft either of them, especially not Saito, but c’est la vie. I imagine a lot of this team would change because of how early I’m mock drafting (in November) and if there’s one thing I can find on the (mock) waiver wire is (mock) closers.

13th and 14th Rounds: I was set to grab Conor Jackson but someone (mock) grabbed him right before me. Since I was scooped again, I went with Cantu and then a longshot pick, Ian Stewart. I wanted average in this round and did not get it. I prolly could’ve (mock) waited on Stewart until the 23rd round, but this is a mock draft, so whatevs.

15th and 16th Rounds: In a boneheaded move, I grabbed Cameron Maybin, but it’s (mock) November (wait, it really is November) so this could end up being the mock steal of the mock draft or not. No way of knowing right now. Then I snagged John Maine — the real one, not mock one.

19th, 20th, 21st, 22nd and 23rd Rounds: I grabbed Billy Butler, Iannetta, Scot Shields and Denard Span respectively with my last four picks (and, if you must know, Cypress Hill came on iTunes… Here is something you can’t understand, how could I choose Denard Span…). These were actually my best value (mock) picks of the entire mock draft. I expect three of these four guys will not only play, but play well for their draft position. Then there’s Shields. It was between him or Wheeler for potential saves. I think Arrendono will take over for K-Rod, but Shields is a favorite of Scioscia so there’s potential there.