Fantasy Baseball Advice

With these top 20 3rd basemen for 2009 fantasy baseball, we finish off the twenty lists for the infield.  From weakest to strongest, the top 20s go top 20 catchers, top 20 shortstops, top 20 2nd basemen, top 20 third basemen then top 20 1st basemen.  The outfielders will be coming up next, and I’m sure they’ll be deeper than all of these lists, but that’s just by virtue of the sheer number of them.  If you want some overall perspective, look at our 2009 Fantasy Baseball Player Rater.  In addition, there’s a list of every player who has multiple position eligibility.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 3rd basemen for 2009 fantasy baseball:

1. David Wright – See the top 10 for 2009 fantasy baseball for David Wright’s projections.

1 1/2. Miguel Cabrera – He may not have 3rd base eligibility in your league so he gets a 1/2.  See the top 10 for 2009 fantasy baseball for Miguel Cabrera’s projections.

2. Evan Longoria – See the top 20 for 2009 fantasy baseball for Evan Longoria’s projections.

3. Aramis Ramirez – Welcome to a new tier.  This tier goes from Aramis to Chipper.  I call this tier, “Your last chance for a rock solid 3rd baseman.”  As for Aramis, he was a bit underwhelming in 2007 to follow that up with more underwhelming shizz in 2008.  That he ranks 4th on the list is more of a condemnation of 3rd basemen than an endorsement of Aramis.  I like him, but only to a certain extent.  2009 Projections:  105/30/115/.295

4. Kevin Youkilis – I liked Youuuuuk going into the 2008 season and he didn’t disappoint.  Now, like with Dusty “The American Dream” Pedroia, Youuuuuuk’s getting slightly overrated.  Though Youuuuuk will have a better chance of matching expectations than Pedroia.  Remember I said match, not exceed.  Recognize!  2009 Projections:  95/27/110/.290/5

5. Alex Rodriguez – Drugs bad, A-Rod good, Cyst bad.  Any questions?  2009 Projections:  70/24/75/.295/4

6. Chipper Jones – Sure, the Glass Chipper is never going to make it a full 150 games ever again, but you forget how many guys are available on waivers during the season.  You get Chipper Jones for 120 games then grab a hot waiver pickup for the other 30 games and you end up with a much more productive player than Atkins for 155 games.   2009 Projections:  80/20/85/.320/5

7. Garrett Atkins – Here’s a new tier.  This tier goes from Atkins to Zimmerman.  I call this tier, “Guys with question marks but upside.”  See the top 20 1st basemen for 2009 fantasy baseball for Garrett Atkins’s projections.

8. Chris Davis – See the top 20 1st basemen for 2009 fantasy baseball for Chris Davis’s projections.

9. Jorge Cantu – See the top 20 1st basemen for 2009 fantasy baseball for Jorge Cantu’s projections.

10. Ryan Zimmerman – If only I liked Martin and Huff more, so I could have dropped Zimmerman even further.  Bummerman!  Someone once asked why I dislike Zimmerman so much, I replied, “Read Razzball!”  To which they said, “Razz what?”  I said, “Ball.”  They said, “Ball what?”  We went on like that for twenty minues.  Honestly, if Zimmerman’s on the board late, I could see myself grabbing him this year, unlike last year when there was no chance I was getting him on any team.  The reason I’m saying there’s a chance this year is because he’s now being severely underrated.  He can still hit 20+ home runs and he’s not that old.  Last year, I hated the wrist surgery.  Now we’re an extra year away from it…  Okay, I’m going to stop now bef0re someone catches me defending Zimmerman.  2009 Projections:  80/20/90/.285/7

10 1/2. Russell Martin – Here’s a new tier.  This tier goes from Martin to Encarnacion.  I call this tier, “Guys with fewer question marks and less upside.”  He may not have 3rd base eligibility in your league so he gets a 1/2.  See the top 20 catchers for 2009 fantasy baseball for Martin’s projections.

11. Aubrey Huff – See the top 20 1st basemen for 2009 fantasy baseball for Aubrey Huff’s projections.

12. Adrian Beltre – I had ‘04 Beltre.  His 48 home runs.  I got them off waivers.  I knew it would never be that good again. And it won’t.  But he’s actually not putting up awful numbers from year to year.  What, you don’t want 25/10?  Of course you do.  He’s only just turning 30 at the beginning of the 2009 season.  2009 Projections:  80/25/85/.270/10

13. Edwin Encarnacion – Edwin’s one of those guys that I would draft in all leagues.  He’s not going to blow you away with numbers, but he’ll keep you afloat and let other guys carry your team.  In September of 2009, you’ll look at Encarnacion and say nothing good or bad. And that’s the best I can say about him.  2009 Projections:   75/25/90/.285/5

14. Mark Reynolds – Here’s a new tier.  This tier is just Reynolds and Figgins.  I call this tier, “Guys who could potentially kill your team.”  A guy who admittedly doesn’t mind striking out 200 times isn’t usually worth the headache.  But one of these years, Reynolds might hit 40+ home runs and .270 just from having one of those lucky BABIP years.  Later in a draft, if you feel like your team is really weak on power, I’d take a flier on Reynolds.  2009 Projections: 75/31/100/.255/7

15. Chone Figgins – Figgins is exactly the kind of guy I’ve never had on any team.  Why, Grey?  Please explain! Okay, random italcized voice, but lower the eagerness a bit, it’s weird.  Figgins always goes in the mid-rounds and he gives you essentially one category (steals).  This puts way too much pressure on your other guys to bolster Figgins’s power shortage.  Also, if he gives you 35 steals and Emmanuel Burriss (fill-in any speed schmohawk SAGNOF player) at a better position gives you the same ten rounds later, why draft Figgins?  I don’t know, Grey! Why?! That was rhetorical; I just explained why.  2009 Projections:  95/5/55/.295/35

16. Mark DeRosa – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from DeRosa to Lowell.  This tier I call, “Guys I’d prefer not to have on my team, but if they get hot I’d pick one up.”  See the top 20 2nd basemen for 2009 fantasy baseball for Mark DeRosa’s projections.

17. Hank Blalock – Honestly, I had Mike Lowell here then looked at reports of his recovery from hip surgery, looked at his age and decided I’d prefer this schmohawk then Lowell.  But, the thing is, I don’t really want Blalock either.  It was a tough call and in the end Blalock won because I think he’d get injured and I’d be able to drop him, where Lowell would play through injuries and end up costing me much more.  2009 Projections:  55/17/65/.280 in 100 games.

18. Carlos Guillen – See the top 20 1st basemen for 2009 fantasy baseball for Carlos Guillen’s projections.

18 1/2. Pablo Sandoval – He may not have 3rd base eligibility in your league so he gets a 1/2.  See the top 20 catchers for 2009 fantasy baseball for Sandoval’s projections.  BTW, I like Sandoval, just not so much as my 3rd baseman.

19. Mike Lowell – “Hip surgery on an old doode,” my trepidation says.  2009 Projections:  75/20/85/.275

20. Alex Gordon – Here’s the last tier.  It’s called, “Fliers that could pay dividends.”  I’ve said it many times before, and I’ll say it again.  When you’re this deep into a position, you take a flier on a guy rather than the safe, aging vet.  It’s worth the risk.  As for Gordon, can you believe I’m pushing this schmohawk for another year?  Old habits die hard, ask John Holmes.  I already went over Alex Gordon as a 2009 fantasy sleeper.  Listen, I just know know KNOW (Yes, the regular-italicized-caps emphasis.  That’s like the triple dog dare of emphasis.) Alex Gordon’s going to come around.  He’s like that really awkward girl in your eleventh grade gym class that had Doritos in her hair.  You know the one — the one that asked your stupid ass out and you turned down.  Then you ended up going out with Psycho Sally and her crazy-ass ex-boyfriend keyed your ‘87 Camaro.  Well, the girl with the Doritos in her hair grows up to be Cindy Crawford.  Don’t you see you’re making the same mistakes in life over and over again?  Geez!  2009 Projections:  85/22/90/.270/10 (<–optimistic, but doable)

After the top 20 3rd basemen for 2009 fantasy baseball, there’s a lot of names, but here’s three that stand out:

Dallas McPherson – I covered him in a 2009 fantasy sleeper post.  Search the site!  2009 Projections:  60/20/80/.245/5

Kevin Kouzmanoff – No, he didn’t explode on the scene like some (me!) would’ve hoped, but he’s still young and… Well, he plays in Petco and I don’t think Ryan Howard could hit 40 home runs in that park so keep expectations in check.  2009 Projections:  75/25/95/.270

Troy Glaus – Don’t even bother drafting him.   Anyone who decides to have shoulder surgery in January isn’t worth the ulcer.   2009 Projections:  Old/Doode/Injured/Shoulder

The other day we went over our top 10 for 2009 fantasy baseball and today we fill out the top 20.  Pretty neat, huh?  What, you can’t handle the word neat?  Whatevs.  You’re wearing Jordache Jeans and your Mom calls you, “Pumpkie.”  Deal with that!  Next, we’ll go over the top twenty catchers and so on around the diamond as we look at our 2009 Fantasy Baseball rankings.  This 2nd round was a real battle for me to commit to, taking by far the longest time.  I had Utley as low as 17, Beltran was at every slot at one point.  I’m happy with what I settled on, but I will say that I could see a serious argument made for a reshuffling of these names.  By my estimation, there’s only two tiers in the 2nd round.  Utley to Fielder then the last three players.  In addition to these 2009 fantasy baseball rankings, we have our 2009 fantasy baseball player rater. It’s all here, ya’ll!  Anyway, here’s the top 20 for 2009 fantasy baseball:

11. Mark Teixeira – I wouldn’t expect 40 home runs from Teixeira.  He doesn’t seem capable of that outside of Arlington.  Though he’s extremely trustworthy for a certain level of production and that’s what gets him in here at twelve.  2009 Projections:  110/35/125/.310

12. Tim Lincecum – After Santana, he’s about as good as a lock for a 3.00 ERA and 200 Ks as you’re going to find. With Sabathia’s move to the AL East, and the slight uncertainty of how he’ll adjust, Lincecum becomes the number two pitcher off the board.  With a 2nd round pitcher, I want someone who has a good chance at being a top ten player at the end of the year and Lincecum’s that pitcher.  For what it’s worth, I wouldn’t draft Lincecum because I don’t believe in taking pitchers this high.  2009 Projections:  17-8/3.00/1.18/210

13.  Carlos Beltran – He’s a lock for 110/27/115/.275/22 with upside for a bit more.  Again, this doesn’t feel like an exciting pick.  You look at Josh Hamilton and he’s EXCITING!  Caps and exclamation mark exciting.  That’s real exciting.  That’s screaming as you ran down the street with your pants around your ankles right after you lost your virginity exciting.  I agree with you.  A 2nd round pick of Josh Hamilton is the kind of pick that makes all the guys wanna be your friend and all the girls wanna date you.  Well, don’t forget the lesson of Ronald Miller.  A 2nd round pick of Hamilton could take you from “geek” status to “king” status to no status.  2009 Projections:  110/27/115/.275/22

14. Ian Kinsler -  I really thought Kinsler would be later in the 2nd round, but his position coupled with his ability to go 20/20 has him ranked here.  Though his average will come down from last year.  2009 Projections:  110/23/80/.280/25

15. Jimmy Rollins - Braid up your hair real tight to your skullz and think about this…. In an off year, where Rollins battled injuries and one of the worst slumps of his career, he hit 11 home runs and stole 47 bases — stole 47 bases out of 50 bases.  Rollins should bounce back to 110+ Runs and 70+ RBIs.  Let’s be conservative and say he hits only 5 extra home runs in 2009 and steals only 40.  You STILL (caps for emphasis, not for the farsighted) want that from your shortstop.  2009 Projections:  115/16/75/.280/40

16. Prince Fielder – I’ve seen the big man falling into the third round of some drafts.  Makes me feel like I need to clear something up.  We’re drafting for 2009, not for what he did in 2008.   Sure, Berkman had a great 2008, but he’s hardly just entering his prime.  Yes, Fielder is the world’s fattest 24-year-old vegetarian and we should be worried about his general health when he’s in his 30s and needs a crane to get him to 1st base, but right now….  Binge on some Boca Burgers!  2009 Projections:  85/40/110/.285

17. Carlos Lee – And here’s the 2nd tier of the 2nd round.  This tier goes from here to the end of the list.  I call this last tier, “Their projections are variations of 100/32/100/.290/7.”  A fluke injury derailed Carlos Lee from putting up the same stats he puts up every year.  El Caballo isn’t ready for the glue factory just yet.  2009 Projections:  100/33/110/.300/7

18. Lance Berkman - Berkman fills up all the categories just like Carlos Lee.  They’re like Crockett and Tubbs.  If Crockett were a little more Tubby.  2009 Projections:  100/32/100/.300/7

19.  Evan Longoria – A full season of Longoria has me very excited.  The Rays love to run and Longoria can hit 30 home runs with ease.  If you think David Wright is a top ten pick, Longoria’s definitely in the top twenty.  Honestly, I feel like Longoria’s headed for the 1st round in 2010 (when we’re all driving around in flying cars).  2009 Projections:  85/30/110/.275/7

20. Alfonso Soriano – Al-So is somehow being underrated all of a sudden.  Sure, he’s a Latin 33 but whatevs.  2009 Projections:  110/32/85/.275/15

After the top 20 for 2009 fantasy baseball, there’s lots of names, but two I want to specifically mention:

Matt Holliday – I already went over Holliday for 2009 fantasy. As I sorta said there, Holliday is not someone I would avoid completely.  He’ll still have value and I could see him going as soon as 21st.   He’s just not the 1st or 2nd rounder he was last year.   2009 Projections:  90/22/105/.310/12

Josh Hamilton – I’ve already gone over Hamilton being overrated.  I’ve seen some fantasy baseball ‘perts rank Josh Hamilton as high as 8th overall.  Are they expecting him to go 40/40?  Cure the common cold?  Invent square pancakes?  We’re all rooting for Bubbles to stay on the straight and narrow, but that doesn’t mean he’s going to get nearly 100 RBIs by the All-Star Break again.  He’s Carlos Lee, but more injury-prone.  Call him Unhealth Lee.  2009 Projections:  95/30/110/.295/7

And then Dustin Pedroia turned my Silver Bullet into a Sam Adams.  I wouldn’t have believed it either, if I didn’t see it with my own eyes.   But Pedroia wasn’t done there.  Noooo…  With a droplet of his sweat, he defrosted Ted Williams so The Splendid Splinter could go to a Southie’s Little League game.  But that’s not it!  Did you know Pedroia single-handedly completed The Big Dig?  Sure, it was fifteen years off schedule, but it would’ve been thirty.   By the way, you lost your virginity because of Dustin Pedroia.  Yes, you did!  If he didn’t get Suzy What’s-Her-Face drunk, you’d still think boners were only associated with opening a Topps pack and finding a Dan Gladden rookie card.  Oh, and you’re lucky for C-sections, cause Pedroia is your mother.  Deal with that!  Now all of these magnificent achievements by Pedroia could make him overrated in 2009 fantasy baseball, but luckily we all have minds of our own, right?

Wrong.  What are you people doing?  Seriously.  I see Pedroia being drafted as early as the 2nd round in some drafts. Why not just make him the first pick overall and be done with it?  What are you people honestly hoping for in 2009 from Pedroia?  A 40/40 season?  Unless dooode is shooting up some Bondsteriodian clear, he’s not going to come close to fulfilling your expectations.  He’s a 15/15 guy with some upside for more.  But there’s downside on those numbers too.  You really want a 12/12 2nd baseman in the 2nd round?  Why not just draft Yunel with your first pick and Dusty second?  Sure, position scarcity makes Pedroia a wee bit more valuable, but not as valuable as I’ve seen him being drafted.  Then there’s his 118 RBIs last year.  He hit .307 with RISP, not completely clutch.  In 2007, he hit .263 with RISP and drove in 50.  Could he drive in only 50 again?  Yup.  Or maybe he drives in 60.  Still not 2nd round (or 3rd round) value.  His HR/fly balls were double in 2008 than they were in 2007, he had only 50 walks in over 700 plate appearances and he cured rubella.  Listen, he’s about the fourth best 2nd baseman going into 2009.  He’s not a 2nd (or even 3rd) round pick.  Chillax, people.  You would’ve got laid eventually, with or without Dustin Pedroia’s help.

Hey all! My thanks to both Rudy and Grey for allowing me the opportunity to ramble for a bit on one of my favorite off-season topics, the fantasy mock draft. It’s the beginning of January and this would be the perfect opportunity to commence that 2009 preseason fine tuning. The start of spring training is still several months away and taking advantage of that “break” between seasons can make a huge difference in those final 2009 results. Sure the honey-do list can be shortened, but please remember guys don’t set the bar too high. Taking too much of a break can lead to over-bonding, which then creates a false sense of illusion when spring training gets rolling, and you and the PC get rejoined at the hip for another six months.

In a standard 12 team league, assuming you have a 23 man roster with a six man bench, your season, all six months of it, is led out of the gate by a scant 43 minutes and 30 seconds, or as we like to call it the draft. Don’t get me wrong here, 2009 fantasy baseball rankings and 2009 fantasy baseball projections are both crucial and essential components in preseason preparation, but the ability to mold those projections into a cohesive and winning team is another very important skill set, and an art all unto itself, that should not be overlooked.

Most mock drafts allow for a fifteen or twenty minute window prior to the actual draft, much the same as your actual league drafts. I know we all like to chat it up with the old gang and practice the ritual trash talk, but use at least a portion of this time to identify some of the key players you will be targeting. Draft day is the wrong time to be sorting through for the first time the actual mechanics of the “player queue.” I personally like to list sleeper picks, high risk/high reward types and the slew of closer wannabees that can be used to attempt to vulture cheap saves near the end of the draft. This whole process takes maybe five-to-ten minutes and still allows ample time to socialize.

The ability to be constantly monitoring the players that are still available by position is an invaluable skill. I am constantly monitoring player movement by position, especially the positions that I know can lead to trouble down the road like catcher, shortstop and this year first base. Knowing constantly what is available is a necessity when looking forward into the middle and latter rounds of a draft.

Monitor other teams’ rosters as they draft. Look for trends and strategies that might have serious implications further on into the draft. The art of scanning rosters with everything else that is going on in a draft is a challenge to say the least, but if you want to be ready for opportunity to knock you better be prepared to do the work it takes as well. You’re looking at a 17th round pick and doing the old, “Should I make a move now or wait another round,” and lo and behold a quick glance reveals that the teams picking before your next pick have all those slots filled. Makes that decision a bit easier now doesn’t it?

Work on different strategies and picking from different draft slots. Remember the goal is to work towards gaining that extra edge come draft day, and picking fourth in a mock for two months because you like the options available there isn’t really going to help you a whole lot on draft day when you end up in the ninth slot. It’s all about knowing the potential and probable outcomes and the ability to react in a positive manner when confronted by them. Try taking starting pitcher’s early, or letting them slide into the middle or latter rounds. Build a team based on those big power bats. Draft speed early or try and procure it late. Forgo the big stolen base threats and build your stolen bases from a balanced approach. Practice starting player runs, and understand the implications of getting caught in one.

There is a lot going on, in a very, very short period of time in a draft. The skills required to identify, analyze and react on the fly require many hours of practice. If one is comfortable with the actual draft mechanics in January, it certainly leads to the potential to be a dominating force with the commencement of league play in mid-March. The ability and skill-set to “control” the draft and your destiny, rather than accepting it as one’s fate gives you a huge edge over the competition come draft day.

I will be running a weekly Sunday night mock over at Mock Draft Central starting January 11th at 8:00 pm EDT and I’d like to extend an invitation to all Razzball readers that might be interested in practicing the craft. Head on over and join me for some invaluable practice and discussion as we head into spring training. Thanks again to Rudy, Grey and all the Razzball readers and here’s wishing you a Razztastic fantasy filled 2009!

(Besides wearing shorts two sizes too small, Tim also contributes at Rotorob.com.)

I know; I’m a bad person for putting Josh Hamilton in the 2009 fantasy baseball overrated category.  Sorry.  I also don’t like soda.  It is what it is.  Don’t hate the player, hate the cola.  Last year, Josh Hamilton entered a 12 step program for fantasy relevance.  Step 1. Stay healthy.  Step 2.  Go into the All-Star Break with almost 100 RBIs.  Step 3.  Stop sucking people off for drugs.  Step 4.  Stop having your girlfriend/wife/whatever suck people off for drugs for you.  Step 5.  Seriously follow steps 3 and 4.  Step 6.  When pumping gas, don’t huff it.  Step 7.  Call your sponsor, Otis Nixon.  Step 8.  Admit you are powerless to Rum Raisin and don’t sample it.  Step 9.  Humbly ask Him to remove you from a lineup with Edwin Encarnacion and Scott Hatteberg and move you to Arlington and Kinsler and a career year Milton Bradley.  Step 10.  Win the hearts and minds of everyone at the All-Star Game’s Home Run Derby.  Step 11.  Somehow convince people that anything is possible including a 40/20 season.  Step 12.  Actually follow these steps.  So that’s all that was necessary for Josh Hamilton to get on your 1st and 2nd round radars for 2009 fantasy drafts.  Now what can we expect from him in 2009 for fantasy baseball?

Carlos Lee.  Wait, huh?  Weren’t you just talking about Josh Hamilton? I was, random italicized voice.  Chillax.  All I meant was, Carlos Lee has been doing for years what you can reasonably expect from Josh Hamilton in 2009.  When was the last time you considered Carlos Lee in the 1st round?  Never?  Yeah, me neither.  This is not to say Josh Hamilton is going to suck a giant bottle of Mediocre in 2009.  He’s a great talent.  I wouldn’t be surprised if he goes 35/110/.300/10, i.e., Carlos Lee’s numbers.  Also, don’t forget Hamilton wore down in the 2nd half last year and he’s injury-prone.  While some will be drafting Josh Hamilton in the 1st round of 2009 drafts, I’ll be shooting up on some Carlos Lee-infused smack at the end of the 2nd round.  Suck on that pipe, Pookie!