Fantasy Baseball Advice

For most of you, been there, read this shizz already, but there’s Razzball newbies (Razzbabies?) that need some coddling occasionally.  If you know PEDS, skip ahead into the comments and discuss my mustache.  So, there’s a BRAN (Balanced Roster After Nine) Drafting Strategy by Rudy “The Fro Knows” Gamble.  He’s also touched upon some fantasy baseball drafting tips.  Go read it.   It will make you smart.  There’s also a LIMA Plan (Low Investment Mound Aces) by Ron Shandler.  There’s been a ZIMA Plan by Matthew Berry; it involves a lot of stumbling around and the hiccups.  There’s been a Punt One Category draft strategy.  There’s been a Punt Two Categories draft strategy, which was conceived by a leaguemate of Punt One Category who just couldn’t stand being upstaged.  And there’s the Forget When Your Draft Is So Your Team Is Autodrafted strategy.  I love when my leaguemates use that one.  Then there’s my draft strategy, Performance Enhancing Draft Strategy or PEDS.

PEDS has five basic steps. If you follow these steps, you will place near the top in all of your leagues.  No plan is foolproof because, unfortunately, they still have to play the games, but PEDS puts you in the best position possible to win coming out of your draft.  Okay, onto the steps:

1. Never draft a pitcher with your first two picks.

No Lincecum. No Halladay. No F-Her.  You abstain!  They’re fantastic.  I love them all.  I’d smoke a bowl with Lincecum and then tease Sandoval that we could eat whatever we wanted, but I wouldn’t draft him.  These starters give you the value of a 1st or 2nd rounder.  They do.   I said it.  The problem is the loss of one of your 1st two hitters is really difficult to bounce back from.  You, son, are putting yourself in a hole.  A hole?  Yes, you are.  The absence of Longoria or Teixeira or whoever is too great.

2. Never take a closer in the first tier.

This is a tough one for some people. I’m going to be you for a brief moment.  Me as you, “Hey, everyone’s starting to take closers in the fifth round. There goes Bell, Rivera, Soria… Wait, I have to take a closer with my next pick! And why am I not wearing pants?! For the Lord’s sake, why don’t I have pants on?!”  See what happened there?  You done got swept up.  You did.   You got swept up in a closer run.  Ignore everyone who takes closers.  You don’t need a top tier one. Stick to your own game plan.  Grab some schmohawks later that will get saves because, as we all know, SAGNOF.

3. Have your offense squared away before the final rounds and never take an offensive bench player.

I know, you owned Ty Wigginton last year and you guys got along thick as thieves.  Awesome!  Send him a postcard.   You’re not going to hold onto these late round offense guys anyway.  You’re going to get to the first week of the season and you’re going to wonder why you have Ty Wigginton on your bench when there’s a hot hitting Josh Willingham on waivers.   Instead of an offensive bench player, grab a middle reliever who seems like he has a good chance of taking over for the incumbent closer.   Or grab a starter.  (Note: This rule is for 14 team leagues and shallower.   If you’re in a 15 team league or deeper, offensive bench players can come in handy when there’s nothing but scraps on waivers.)

4. When deep into a position, take a flier on upside.

Nobody in the history of fantasy baseball has ever won a league by playing it safe in the late rounds. In 1995, I tried drafting Mike Greenwell as my fifth outfielder; just didn’t work.  A darn fine year by Klesko wasted!  You play it safe in the early rounds.  You take solid contributors early.  You take fliers late.  You’re looking at either Juan Rivera or Julio Borbon, who do you choose?  Orlando Hudson or Danny Espinosa?  Valerie Harper or Sandy Duncan?  You get the picture.

5. When in doubt, draft your third, fourth and fifth starters from NL teams.

Self-explanatory.  No DH, pitchers hitting, weaker offenses.  They bunt in the NL!  Does this mean I don’t want Morrow? No, I’m saying when in doubt.  Cueto or Edwin Jackson?  I’m taking Cueto.  Carlos Zambrano or James Shields?  I’m going Zambrano.  Morrow or Colby Lewis?  Ah, trick question.  But I’d go Morrow.

If you follow these five simple steps, I guarantee you will be in the top three in your league battling for your championship. PEDS is so easy, it should be illegal.  You’re welcome.

There’s a BRAN (Balanced Roster After Nine) Drafting Strategy by Rudy Gamble.  Yesterday, he went over some fantasy baseball drafting hints from Heloise.  You go read it.  It will make you smart.  There’s also a LIMA Plan (Low Investment Mound Aces) by Ron Shandler.  There’s been a ZIMA Plan by Matthew Berry; it involves a lot of stumbling around and the hiccups.  There’s been a Punt One Category draft strategy.  There’s been a Punt Two Categories draft strategy, which was conceived by a leaguemate of Punt One Category who just couldn’t stand being upstaged.  And there’s the Forget When Your Draft Is So Your Team Is Autodrafted strategy.  I love when my leaguemates use that one.  Then there’s my draft strategy, Performance Enhancing Draft Strategy or PEDS.

PEDS has five basic steps.  If you follow these steps, you will place near the top in all of your leagues. No plan is foolproof because, unfortunately, they still have to play the games. But PEDS puts you in the best position possible to win coming out of your draft. Okay, onto the steps:

1. Never draft a pitcher with your first two picks.

No Lincecum.  No Halladay.  No F-Her.  You abstain!  They’re fantastic.  I love them all.  I have bedsheets with Lincecum on them… Hmm… That sounds wrong.  These starters give you the value of a 1st or 2nd rounder.  They do.  I said it.  The problem is the loss of one of your 1st two hitters is really difficult to bounce back from.  You, son, are putting yourself in a hole.  A hole?  Yes, you are.  The absence of Utley or Teixeira or Longoria or whoever is too great.

2. Never take a closer in the first tier.

This is a tough one for some people.  I’m going to be you for a brief moment.  Me as you, “Hey, everyone’s starting to take closers in the fifth round.  There goes Papelbon, Rivera, Broxton… Wait, I have to take a closer with my next pick!  And why am I not wearing pants?!  For the Lord’s sake, why don’t I have pants on?!”  See what happened there?  You done got swept up.  You did.  You got swept up in a closer run.  Ignore everyone who takes closers.  You don’t need a top tier one.  Stick to your own game plan.  Grab some schmohawks later that will get saves because, as we all know, SAGNOF.

3. Have your offense squared away before the final rounds and never take an offensive bench player.

I know, you owned Josh Willingham last year and you guys got along thick as thieves.  Awesome!  Send him a postcard.  You’re not going to hold onto these late round offense guys anyway.  You’re going to get to the first week of the season and you’re going to wonder why you have Clint Barmes on your bench.  Instead of an offensive bench player, grab a middle reliever who seems like he has a good chance of taking over for the incumbent closer.  Or grab a starter.  (Note:  This rule is for 14 team leagues and shallower.  If you’re in a 15 team league or deeper, offensive bench players can come in handy when there’s nothing but scraps on waivers.)

4. When deep into a position, take a flier on upside.

Nobody in the history of fantasy baseball has ever won a league by playing it safe in the late rounds.  In 1995, I tried drafting Mike Greenwell as my fifth outfielder; just didn’t work.  A darn fine year by Klesko wasted!  You play it safe in the early rounds.  You take solid contributors early.  You take fliers late.  You’re looking at either Juan Rivera or Julio Borbon, who do you choose?  Orlando Hudson or Scott Sizemore?  Valerie Harper or Sandy Duncan?  You get the picture.

5. When in doubt, draft your third, fourth and fifth starters from NL teams.

Self-explanatory.  No DH, pitchers hitting, weaker offenses.  They bunt in the NL!  Does this mean I don’t want Slowey?  No, I’m saying when in doubt.  Tim Hudson or Andy Pettitte?  I’m taking Hudson.  Billingsley or Garza?  I’m going Bills.  Slowey or Price?  Ah, trick question.  But I’d go Slowey.

If you follow these five simple steps, I guarantee you will be in the top three in your league battling for your championship.  PEDS is so easy, it should be illegal. You’re welcome.

USA Today might no longer appreciate the insights shared by Larry King in his long-running column but we at Razzball were thrilled when he accepted our invitation to share his thoughts on Fantasy Baseball….

Greetings fellow fantasy baseball enthusiasts! Let me fill you in on a little secret – I’ve been dominating my leagues since I spent a 10th round pick on a young Rogers Hornsby. Chase Utley might not hit .400 like Hornsby but he makes up for it in moxie….My favorite three nicknames in baseball are Boof, Pronk, and Melky…I wouldn’t trade Johan Santana for all the Little Leaguers in China….Talking about baseball fantasies, whatever happened to Morgana the Kissing Bandit?….I think some people are scared off of fantasy baseball because of terms like sabermetrics and WHIP…The most underrated Ray in Tampa Bay is my grade school chum and stickballer extraordinaire Ray Abbandando. Sandy Koufax avoided pitching to him like he was food on Yom Kippur…I nearly crapped my pants when I heard Albert Pujols had a high grade tear in his elbow but that doesn’t say much….I had Renteria once – nothing Penicillin and a trade couldn’t fix….If I was a scout in Latin America, I’d just sign every player named Cabrera or Ramirez….Look up ‘consistent’ in Baseball Prospectus and you’ll see a picture of Brad Ausmus….I don’t care what his middle initial is, there is no better nine-stat contributor than Chris Young…..Frank Thomas doesn’t look a day over 30….Say what you will but Miguel Tejada brought some class to the position of Oriole SS….If I could pick a coach for my fantasy team, it would be Clint Hurdle….The reason behind Eric Byrnes’s breakout season: suspenders….The best draft strategy is to go to the bathroom beforehand….I’ll say this about steroids. If baseball had the same-sized problem with asteroids, there would be a lot more domed stadiums…Best sleeper pick of all time was Nap Lajoie in 1901…

Major league closers are probably in the highest stress position on their team. So I guess it’s only appropriate that they cause us the most agita. I’ve already explained that I won’t draft any closers in the first tier. Rudy Gamble broke down why he does grab a closer in the first tier. Anyway, what are these tiers and who are in them? Here’s all the closers and their setup men going into the 2008 season. Side note, closers need guile, charisma and whole lot of I-just-don’t-give-a-fark, not unlike some of the characters that were portrayed on The Wire, a show that I’m sadder to see end than any in past memory. So in honor of the series finale of The Wire, I’ve named the tiers after some of The Wire’s more memorable characters.

Clay Davis – This tier comprises closers that will make you smile every time they make their appearance. Papelbon is lights out on arguably the best team in the majors. Nathan has a track record that is better than anyone in the game, except for maybe Rivera, but has an age advantage. Putz’s numbers last year were Cy Young-worthy and there’s no reason to think he can’t be as good this year. K-Rod’s delivery has made the critics say he’s doomed for the DL and every year he’s great. Shiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiit!

1. Jonathan Papelbon, BOS (Hideki Okajima)
2. Joe Nathan, MIN (Pat Neshek)
3. J.J. Putz, SEA (Brandon Marrow)
4. Francisco Rodriguez, LAA (Scot Shields)
5. Mariano Rivera, NYY (Joba Chamberlain)

Omar Little – This tier compromises closers that have the emotion and the stuff to get the job done, but they could get taken out at any time. Francisco Cordero ventures to a hitter’s park. Member what happened to him in Arlington? Chad Cordero may not be long for the Nats, but he’s shown he can close a game as well as he can wear a low, wide-brimmed hat. Saito is backed by the most obvious closer-in-waiting. I don’t even think Jenks believes the year he had last year. Soriano has some of the nastiest stuff in the game, yet still gives up dingers. Capps might end up the most reliable from this group, but on far the worst team.

6. Francisco Cordero, CIN (David Weathers)
7. Chad Cordero, WAS (Jon Rauch)
8. Takashi Saito, LAD (Jonathan Broxton)
9. Bobby Jenks, CHW (Octavio Dotel)
10. Rafael Soriano, ATL (Peter Moylan)
11. Matt Capps, PIT (Damaso Marte)

Proposition Joe – This tier comprises closers that are no newcomers to their position of stress, and they will be absolutely fine this year as long as nothing unforeseen happens. Wagner, Hoffman and Isringhausen should all be trusted, but all three can remember when Hoffman’s entrance song was new, so there’s the age thing. Valverde can save 45 or he can be sent back to the minors to figure things out.

12. Billy Wagner, NYM (Aaron Heilman)
13. Trevor Hoffman, SDG (Heath Bell)
14. Jose Valverde, HOU (Oscar Villarreal)
15. Jason Isringhausen, STL (Ryan Franklin)

Stringer Bell – This tier comprises closers that have the stuff for the long haul, but something tells me their tenure isn’t going to last long. Corpas has good stuff, but Fuentes was more than serviceable. A few hiccups from Corpas and he could end up figuring things out in the seventh inning of blow outs. Huston Street will be traded, maybe to a team that doesn’t need someone for the ninth. Howry and Marmol will share the lion’s share of the saves. Brian Wilson is hardly safe as there’s already grumblings that Tyler Walker will get some opportunities. Soria’s on the Royals and Ryan’s recovery is too fast to not spell trouble.

16. Manny Corpas, COL (Brian Fuentes)
17. Huston Street, OAK (Joey Devine)
18. Bob Howry, CHC (Kerry Wood, Carlos Marmol)
19. B.J. Ryan, TOR (Jeremy Accardo)
20. Joakim Soria, KAN (Joel Peralta)
21. Brian Wilson, SAN (Tyler Walker, Brad Hennessey)

Marlo Stanfield – This tier comprises closers that are fit to do the job, but the men behind them are more badass and better suited. Brandon Lyon better watch out for Tony Pena. Kevin Gregg has two looming in Lindstrom and Tankersley. Sherrill better look out for the entire bullpen. Borowski and Todd Jones, Betancourt and Rodney, respectively.

22. Joe Borowski, CLE (Rafael Betancourt)
23. Todd Jones, DET (Fernando Rodney)
24. Brandon Lyon, ARI (Tony Pena)
25. Kevin Gregg, FLA (Matt Lindstrom, Taylor Tankersley)
26. George Sherrill, BAL (entire bullpen, namely Greg Aquino, Jamie Walker and Chad Bradford)

Ziggy Sobotka – This tier comprises closers that you hope die, whether you own them or not. I liked Lidge two months ago, now he’s injured and I wouldn’t trust him to carry Barmes’s deer meat. Gagne will make you wish you drafted Garrett Anderson in the 18th round. If Wilson makes it out of spring training as the closer, he won’t last until tax day as the sole closer. Percival was retired this time last year. Nuff said.

27. Eric Gagne, MIL (Derrick Turnbow)
28. C.J. Wilson, TEX (Eddie Guardado, Joaquin Benoit)
29. Troy Percival, TAM (Al Reyes)
30. Brad Lidge, PHI (Tom Gordon)

There’s been a Lima Plan (Low Investment Mound Aces) invented by the great Ron Shandler, the Zima Plan invented by the presumably tipsy Matthew Berry, the Punt One Category probably invented by someone who realized they forgot to draft steals, the Balanced Team Theory, the Punt Two Categories (probably a leaguemate to the Punt One Category guy who just couldn’t stand being upstaged), the Forget When Your Draft Is So It Autodrafts Strategy, etc.  Yesterday, our very own Rudy Gamble went over his reasoning behind why you should draft a starting pitcher in the first three rounds. Today, we’ll stop the madness and just give you proper drafting strategy. It’s called Performance Enhancing Drafting Strategy or PEDS, for short.

PEDS has five basic steps.  If you follow these steps, you will place near the top in all of your leagues. No plan is foolproof because, unfortunately, they still have to play the games. Injuries happen. Carlos Penas happen. Ryan Brauns happen. But PEDS puts you in the best position possible to win coming out of your draft. Okay, onto the steps:

1. Never draft a pitcher with your first two picks. I know; Rudy Gamble just gave you legitimate reasons why you should draft a pitcher early. Yeah, and Gamble ended up with Teixeira as his second round pick in the fantasy baseball writers’ league when he still could have done his fahcocta “Draft a Pitcher in the first three rounds” strategy and got Peavy.  He only drafted Santana because he was determined to get Santana or Peavy, so with the fifth pick he had to take Santana. (BTW, he traded his second overall pick to get the fifth pick because he wanted to take Santana and he didn’t want to commit a 2nd overall pick to Johan. I would’ve liked to see what would have happened if the fourth overall pick off the board was Santana, then Gamble probably would’ve taken Peavy with the fifth.) Anyway, you don’t want to put yourself in such a hole on offense by taking a pitcher first. There’s plenty of pitchers out there you can get later on. You don’t have to turn your Ks to eleven, a seven will do.

2. If you don’t get steals in the 1st or 2nd round, don’t worry about steals until late in the draft or after the draft. In other words, if you fail to snag Hanley, Reyes, etc, steals will be there later. Don’t draft anyone because you’re looking for steals. No Carl Crawford, definitely no Eric Byrnes, no Brian Roberts, no Ichiro, no Figgins, please God no Juan Pierre. Cause if you think you’re drafting these guys to get a balanced team, you’re doing the opposite. Drafting one of these schmohawks makes your team unbalanced. After the draft, steals are available whenever you want them. If not on the waiver wire, then through a trade, because you know who loses the most value as soon as the draft is over? Anyone who gives you steals.  Speed guys are like new cars, once you own them, their value diminishes. After the draft, count the days until the guy with Juan Pierre wants to trade him. (BTW, Prepare yourself to go into the All-Star Break needing steals, because if you drafted all of your other positions properly, chances are you can trade some homers for some steals in July. Because, as we know, the guy with 25 homers at the All-Star Break is less likely to get 25 more homers after the break, while someone like Michael Bourn could get you 15 steals in a month.)

3. Never take a closer in the first tier. You should pay for some saves. Just don’t overpay. You need at least two closers, otherwise you’re scrambling the whole season. Grab Hoffman. Don’t draft Nathan. Not K-Rod. Mariano is a no go.  Draft Valverde.

4. Have your offense squared away before the final three rounds and never take an offensive bench player. You’re much better off with a middle reliever or potential closer than Brian Giles on your bench.

5. When in doubt, draft your second, third and fourth starters from NL teams. Self-explanatory. No DH, pitchers hitting, much weaker offenses. They bunt in the NL! Here’s a quick scenario, it’s your turn to draft and you’re trying to choose between Gil Meche and Chris Young, who do you choose? Wainwright or Verlander? Do you see how easy this is?

If you follow these five simple steps, I guarantee you will be in the top three in your league battling for your championship. PEDS is so easy and good, it should be illegal.  You’re welcome.