Okay, take off your aluminum foil cap you use to get better TV reception and put on your thinking cap because we’re going into The Land of Sabermetrics with your host, me. Today we’re going to look at FIP. Stands for Fielding Independent Pitching. It’s basically ERA without those pesky fielders helping or hurting you. It’s a pure ERA. It’s like when you go to the Supercuts and then you don’t want to shower because you’ll never get your hair styled again like Jeffrey does it. It’s your hair right after Jeffrey styles it and before you wash it. That’s FIP. Okay, so let’s take a Exhibit A pitcher who has an ERA of 2.75 but his FIP is a 6.75. A -4.00 difference. That means he’s been very lucky and there’s a good chance his ERA is going to go way up. So here’s a list of pitchers with the biggest difference between their actual ERAs and their FIPs. (If your guy’s on the list, it’s not a great sign.)
Jair Jurrjens – -2.00 difference. Meesa tinks Jar-Jar’s going to get in big trouble.
Doug Davis – -1.99. No surprise here (I hope). He’s not nearly as good as he’s been and he’s only sitting on a 3.25 ERA. Here comes the youch!
Jered Weaver – -1.86. This one surprised me. I figured he was pitching as good as his numbers indicated, but it turns out his BABIP is low and his men left on base is high. Maybe him and big bro might have more to talk about over the All-Star Break than their mullets.
Matt Cain – -1.83. Upsetting for me because I have him on a lot of teams, but not completely surprising. His walks will cut eyes out of a sheet and haunt him.
Kevin Millwood – -1.71. You shouldn’t own him anyway outside of AL-Only leagues.
Chris Volstad – -1.70. I knew he wasn’t this good! Looks like the hurricane season might come early this year (<–Not sure if that makes sense, but seemed to fit.)
Joe Saunders – -1.58. You didn’t really think he was a sub-3 ERA pitcher, did you?
Brett Myers – -1.46. Not that surprising until you realize his ERA is already a 4.81. That’s right, his FIP is 6.28. Don’t wait around for the bounce back.
Johan Santana – -1.27. But his FIP is still only 2.05. You’d take a 2.05 ERA on the year and love it.
Tim Wakefield – -1.21. Looks like he may get greeted with a *pinkie to mouth* knuckle sandwich.
As Sean Connery says, “Shituation: Dire.” Rios has been the pea under your mattress. The splinter in your paw. The tighty-whitey stain that your fourth grade classmates saw when you were changing for gym and have teased you about for the rest of your life (but maybe that was just me). Alexis Rios wasn’t a random stab in the dark when I pegged him for a terrific year in 2008. I wasn’t driving through the desert, high on peyote, when a random Native American said to me, “Rios will be good this year and make sure to hit the slots at Mohegan Sun.” So it’s disappointing when Rios’s slump looks amaranthine (Word of the Day, and I’m not even sure it’s used correctly, so try to use context clues), but there has to be an end in sight, doesn’t there? Yes, I believe there is an end to his struggles. But, for the record, Rudy and I disagree on this. Rudy says he should be sold. Well, whatever. Then I’m going down with the U.S.S. Rios. Rios’s gone through months like this before and he’s come out of it. Sure, his lineup looks like it should be in the AAGPBL, but I’m buying. Anyway, here’s some more fantasy baseball hitters and pitchers to buy and sell:
BUY
Chris Perez – Isringhausen could be done done. To define those italics. Isringhausen is too old, too tired and Chris Perez is too heffin’ good. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Izzy hang up the cleats and retire (then return in two years as the Rays closer.) But can Ryan Franklin hold off Chris Perez? About as well as Britney Spears’s kids have of staving off rehab in twelve years. I think Perez could have fifteen saves this year and excellent peripherals. He’s not a starter that is biding his time in middle relief. He was a closer in the minors. A closer with terrific numbers.
Curtis Granderson – As most of you know, I think Curtis blows. But I’m starting to think, no one likes him, so whenever everyone starts zigging, you gotta look to zag. Now don’t zag for the sake of zagging — nobody likes a willy-nilly zagger! — but if you can move Pat Burrell and Joe Saunders or someone of their ilk for Granderson, you gotta consider it.
Corey Hart – Might be too late to buy because of his recent streak. As Alexis Rios and Corey Hart prove, invest in speedy OFs with girl first names!
Joey Devine – In a couple of leagues where I had Casilla, I’ve moved to Waking Joey Devine.
Matt Garza – 3 earned runs in almost 20 innings since coming off the DL. He’s a very capable pitcher with good K numbers in the minors. The only drawback is the Twins gave him to the Rays and the Twins know pitching. Damn you, Twinkies, what do you know that I don’t?!
Bobby Crosby – If he stays healthy, he could give you 20 home runs and a belch-worthy average.
Adam Wainwright – I’m still onboard the love train. He was a mess in the first half of ’07, but in the second half, he cut his runs allowed by almost half, his home runs allowed by more than half and he showed stamina. Don’t let his last two starts get you down.
Mike Cameron – I see Krispie Young Sr. on waivers in a lot of leagues. In ESPN leagues, he’s only 20% owned. (Of course, I do believe five thousand 3rd graders draft ESPN teams then abandon them, but still.) I’m sporting Cameron on a ten team mixed league and I’m getting what I expect. For a fifth outfielder, you can do worse. On the team I have him, I’m balancing his shizzy average with Youk.
Vladimir Guerrero – So he’s as limber as Ron Kovic, this isn’t something new.
Jose Contreras – Okay, so he remembers when they called movies “talkies” — whatever, he’s solid when healthy and he’s been healthy.
Johnny Damon/Robinson Cano – I’ve beat these horses before, but I still believe.
SELL
Ben Sheets – I’ve said it before. Ben Sheets can win the Cy Young. Know what else? Hillary can win the nomination. Andy Milonakis can be funny. I can date Mila Kunis without incurring criminal charges. Now will is an entirely different matter. Will Hillary win the nomination? I suppose if whatever state Obama is in collapses into the core of the earth. Will fatty ever be funny? I suppose if he steals better jokes. Will I date Kunis? If I can get rid of Culkin, you better believe it. So will Sheets win the Cy Young? He hasn’t made it to 30 starts since ’04. That year he had 264 Ks and 32 walks. Go ahead look at those numbers again. Yeah, they’re insane. That was coupled with a 2.70 ERA. He has pinpoint control and filthy stuff. Yeah, I’m a fan. Unfortunately, he could get injured in a pillow fight with your niece. So as much as I like him, I’m passing.
Edinson Volquez – In the comments recently someone asked about Edinson. Here’s what I said, “You see what’s happening with Cueto right now? Yeah, Volquez will be seeing him in the ‘kinda not startable’ category soon. Edinson’s a great pitcher but very, very rarely does a pitcher arrive in the majors and never hit a correction period. Could he avoid it? I suppose, but you don’t bet on the least likely thing to happen. You’re playing with house money right now and you need to cash out and move on.” Admit it, I take your breath away like Dr. Kevorkian.
Adrian Gonzalez – Don’t fall in love with his first half numbers. Let’s put it this way, he says to Teixeira, “You complete me.” Now don’t sell him for Luis Hernandez and a bottle of Valtrex and say, “Look, Grey, I did good!”
Jon Garland – Don’t make the same mistake The Town That Bobby Grich Built Angels made. He’s not a great pitcher.
Jon Lester/Doug Davis – As Hank said in the comments the other day, “Damn, cancer really is the new AIDS. Free plane tickets, no-hitters, and sympathy rotation spots. ‘What kind of cancer do you have? The All-Over kind.’” Meanwhile, Casey Kotchman writes in his journal, “Mono is not good enough!”
Kevin Youkilis – Youuuuuuuuuk is not a 2nd half hitter.
Joe Saunders – Rudy said this the other day in the comments, “Saunders is projected as a low K pitcher with around 5.00 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. His 3.6 K/9 IP and 1.6 K/BB ratios are AWFUL. The only real change from his performance last year is that he’s getting lucky with balls that are in play – it’s .240 instead of an expected .300.” And that’s me quoting Rudy!
Billy Butler – I’m gonna pull a Willie Randolph and say it’s racist if people still have Butler on their team. If he were black or Isiah Thomas or Herm Edwards, he would not be on your team. And that’s egregious! So let’s all get along and drop Butler. Now doesn’t that feel good?
Today, Verlander is buying the next round of Camels for Leyland and his fantasy baseball owners. If it wasn’t for a great catch by Joyce and Big Papi swinging on 3-0, Youk’s home run would’ve been of the grand slam variety. As I told a frequent commenter who lurks off the homepage, “Everything on (Verlander’s) charts is wrong. His walks up, fly balls up (metaphorically and literally), BABIP (showing he’s not just getting unlucky), etc. I’m worried, frankly. I would not trade for him, but I also don’t think you can trade him away. His value is too low.” What a pickle! So what do you do with Verlander? Well, you have to start sending out feelers to see what he can garner in a trade. If offers come back for Renteria and Sherrill, you pass and hope Verlander steps his game up. If you get offered Votto, you have to seriously consider it. Otherwise, you and Leyland may be talking with a tracheotomy soon. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday:
Brett Myers – I’m officially worried about Myers. Maybe moving him to the bullpen last year wasn’t such a great idea (not that anyone besides Charlie Manual’s closest family actually thought it ever was a good idea). I wouldn’t drop him, but you can’t start him at this point.
Jo-Jo Reyes – I saw nothing that would tell me to drop him. Then again, I didn’t see much because he was pulled with a blister. No word if he misses his next start.
Carlos Villanueva – Two runs in the first should’ve been unearned. Bill Hall pulled a Ryan Braun and let a Hanley grounder get past him. Bad official scorer, bad. Then in the third inning, Braun pulled a Braun and slid for a blop single and turned into a double. Then Treanor hits the foul pole with a three run homer. I know, all of this is little consolation, but Villanueva wasn’t as bad as the line. On a separate but related note, I’m actually really annoyed with the Brewers in general. Okay, whether you asked or not…
Joe Dillon – Is Ned Yost stupid? Seriously, just because he sits Fielder he has to bat Dillon in Prince’s spot in the lineup? This might be the dumbest thing I’ve ever seen (and I’ve seen some dumb things, remember I watch reality TV). I mean, Dillon’s not an awful player, but Yost bats him third? Why not put names into a hat? This would be reason enough for me to fire a manager. I don’t even like Braun and I think it’s absolutely whatupid (whack/stupid). People in Milwaukee, put down your frozen custard and rise up! Dillon could go 4-for-3 (if that were possible) with six home runs and 30 RBIs in this game alone and it would be whatupid. /rant
Ryan Braun – .257 after an 0-for-5. Didn’t like him coming into the year, still don’t like him. And I like the Brewers. I like their announcers. I like Milwaukee. Great city. Good people. Okay, I’m ranting again, but this is really frustrating me. If I were the type to do emoticons, and if I knew the emoticon for frustrated, I would do it. Argh.
Edwin Jackson – I like Jackson to a certain extent. He was a big name prospect that floundered in the Dodgers organization for a while. He’s been pretty uneven this year, so unless your leagues deep I’d be careful.
Doug Davis – He’s been cleared to begin rehab. Good for Doug. Stay away in fantasy baseball.
Ryan Ludwick – Vincent aka The Queen’s Assassin hit two home runs yesterday. Whatever, I guess you don’t need that on your team. Now I must kill… the Queen.
Dioner Navarro – Okay, so I’m the only one talking about him. That’s reason to not pick him up? Seriously, what are you people doing? Are you looking at the fact he’s only owned on 2% of all teams and saying, “Grey’s effin’ bonkers. Nobody wants this guy. I’m grabbing Pudge.” Is it because you don’t know how to pronounce his first name? Dioner (for lack of any nickname) hit a grand slam yesterday.
Shane Victorino – Last five games, batting .363, 8 runs, 2 steals. Werth, one start and that was against a lefty, which makes sense.
Nick Markakis – I’m going to touch on this in the next week or so, but in ESPN’s ‘new’ rankings they’ve moved both Markakis and Rios up to 21 and 23 respectively. Maybe they’ve crawled out of their caves over there in Bristol, Conn.
Miguel Tejada – I’ll be the first one to admit that I’m really hard on guys that are suspected of steroids, but Tejada I love. I can’t give you a reason why. I just thought you needed to know that.
Wilfredo Ledezma – He looked fine, until he was pulled after 63 pitches. The Braves announcers said he might have hurt himself going after a popup. (The Padres didn’t broadcast the game. Word on the street is they’re contemplating not showing the Padres when they’re batting either.) I couldn’t get confirmation on this injury, so, ya know, stay tuned. Or not. You do what you do.
Troy Percival – The most surprising thing to me is that he’s still the closer. Okay, the most surprising thing is these were his first earned runs all year.
Eugenio Velez – He’s 1 for his last 19 with two steals. He could end the year with more steals than hits. He could go 30/30. Thirty hits, thirty steals. On any other team, he’s platooning with Willie Mays Hayes.
(NOTE FROM GREY: Last week I sent out feelers to the top baseball team blogs to see if they would be generous enough to write a quick preview for their favorite team. So over the course of the next two weeks, mixed in with your daily fantasy info, you will get some of the most astute, in-depth coverage of teams around the major leagues for the upcoming 2008 season from the people that know these teams best. Each post will include a link to their site, please take time to visit these bloggers’ sites, because these posts are truly the tip of the iceberg for their team knowledge. Now enjoy the 2008 Arizona Diamondbacks preview.)
Last year, the Arizona Diamondbacks outperformed the sum of their parts, posting the best record in the National League despite being outscored by their opponents. In fantasy baseball, as opposed to the real thing, this is not good: wins are important only as one category of pitching stats, rather than being the only thing that actually counts. How will the team fair this year – and, more importantly from a rotisserie perspective, how will the individual players fair? Rather than picking out the best players – if you don’t already know Brandon Webb is among the best pitchers in the National League, this article won’t help you – here are the ones who are most likely to overperform, underperform, or simply have questionmarks over them.
LIKELY TO IMPROVE 1B Conor Jackson. Definite sleeper potential here. Jackson had an abysmal April, but after that, quietly batted .296 with rate stats that, pro-rated over 162 games, would have been 22 homers and 82 RBI. He has picked up speed over the off-season; while he won’t be Jose Reyes on the basepaths, a few more infield hits are likely, and you could be looking at a .300, 25 HR season. The departure of Tony Clark leaves him the full-time incumbent, though he may lose some starts to Chad Tracy, after he returns.
SS Stephen Drew. ‘Buy low’ is what you are doing here, and Drew is likely to improve, simply because he’s better than the .238 he posted last season – he was a career .299 hitter in the minors. Drew was, to some extent, the victim of bad luck, with his BA on balls in play flukishly low. There aren’t many alternatives on the D-backs roster, so even if he struggles initially, he’s still going to get playing time for Arizona.
RHP Tony Peña. Most of the D-backs bullpen are due to regress back towards the mean this year, but Pena’s big advantage is that he’s the immediate heir apparent for the closer’s spot. If Brandon Lyon falters – and there are a good number of experts who think that he will – Peña will immediately become a lot more valuable. Last year’s Arizona closer, Jose Valverde, led the league in saves, as much because the team gave his so many opportunities, 61 of their 90 wins being by three runs or less. Expect the same this year.
LIKELY TO FADE LF Eric Byrnes. With mostly a young squad, age is on the side of Arizona, and Byrnes, now aged 32, is the ‘elder statesman’ among the position players. He had a decent 104 OPS+ last year, but that was his best since 2004 and he’s at the age where further improvement is doubtful. Might still be worth picking up for steals – he swiped 50 bags last year – but if you do, trade him by the All-Star break, as his career average in the second half is only .239, more than fifty points worse than during the first half.
LHP Doug Davis. A 4.25 ERA in a hitter’s park like Chase might tempt you, but don’t be fooled, as Davis dodged an awful lot of bullets last season. Non-pitchers batted .294 against him, and his WHIP of 1.59 ranks him just worse than Jose Contreras and Daniel Cabrera, who had ERAs of 5.57 and 5.55 respectively. Davis can still pitch, when he doesn’t walk too many people, but if his control deserts him, the hits which are an inevitable part of his game will lead to too many unsightly box-scores.
WILD CARDS RHP Randy Johnson. Johnson made only ten starts last year, but posted a decent 3.81 ERA and a very respectable K:BB ratio of 72:13. He’s come off back surgery for the second consecutive season, but his rehab this time round has been longer – he now admits he rushed back in 2007, and that was likely in part responsible for the relapse. Needs 16 wins to reach the magic number of 300, and that will likely drive Johnson. No doubting his competitive urges; don’t expect 30+ starts, but worth having on your bench and picking your spots.
RF Justin Upton. Expectations are high for Upton, with Bill James predicting a line of .278/.353/.496, to go with 19 homers and 74 RBI. To put that prediction of an .849 OPS into context, even an .800 figure by a 20-year old over a full season has only been seen twice in my lifetime [from some guys called Alex Rodriguez and Ken Griffey Jr...] Much as I would love to see Upton become the third such phenom, I think we’ll have to wait until 2009 to see the full flowering of his unquestionable talents. He’ll be lots of fun to watch, but let some other manager go through the growing pains Upton will endure this year.
3B Mark Reynolds. Pulled up from Double-A after we ran out of third-basemen, Reynolds exploded, batting .459 in his first ten major-league games, including a five-hit night. The rest of the year was like a roller-coaster: Reynolds hit .162 in June, .194 in July, but .342 in August and .300 in the final month. The truth, as usual, lies somewhere in the middle. He has genuine power, and 25 HR seems easily achievable, but he will also likely strike out 150 times or more. Will also likely split some time at third with Chad Tracy, but a late-round pick could pay dividends.
Jim McLennan grew up in Britain, but fell in love with baseball because of its statistics, and has followed the D-backs since their home field was just a hole in the ground. He can be found ranting about them, on an almost daily basis, at azsnakepit.com.
