Fantasy Baseball Advice

Well you came and you gave without taking but I sent you away, oh Wandy….Wandy Rodriguez yesterday gave up four homers in five innings.  That was one way to correct an abnormal home run rate.  This is three starts now that he’s been rocked.  His owners got a bye on the first one because they were called unearned runs. His 2nd one was some kind of marvel with the Pirates getting eight singles in 4 and two-thirds.  Yesterday’s, well, that was an explosion.  If anyone out there had the impression Wandy was going to be an under 2 ERA pitcher, that was a mistake.  In April, I said, “(Wandy’s) not going to finish the year under a 3 ERA, so he will take some lumps at some point.”  And that’s me quoting me!  I mean, c’mon, it’s Wandy Rodriguez.  He’s great.  I love him.  He’s my imaginary friend’s godfather.  But, for Christmas sake, he’s 30 years old and his home run rate before last night was 1.4% (It should be near 11%).  I’m still on the Wandwagon, but he’s a 3.75 pitcher.  Remember, he’s also a 8 K/9 pitcher, which is still good.  Even last night he K’d 7 guys between gopher balls.  So, the wheels are wobbling on the Wandwagon, but they’re not off.   Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Jose Reyes – Torn hamstring tendon.  The Mets are saying he can still come back next week.  The Mets are not lying at all.  Reyes will be back next week.  (<– Grey being unrealistically optimistic because he just traded Dunn for him in one league.)  If Tim Roth reads Razzball, he could’ve told you I just lied.  This is bad news.  All of his value is in his legs.  A torn hamstring tendon?  Honestly, I’m praying he’s back right after the All-Star Break.  That’s my most realistic prediction.

J.J. Putz – For those holding out hope, Putz is headed to the Disgraceful List.  Stop pulling your pud and release the Putz.

Andrew McCutchen – He batted leadoff and went 2-for-4, 3 Runs, 1 RBI, 1 steal and 1 incredibly difficult last name to spell.  We might need Razzball Nation to come up with a decent nickname for him.

Miguel Cabrera – Hamstring injury forced him out of the game.  Maybe he can get Miguel Olivo to rub it down with some hot oil. (<– It’s a hunch!)

Jeff Larish – Will see time if Miggy’s down for any amount of time.  I’m assuming Leyland will bat Larish cleanup, because he locked the lineup card on Opening Day.

Nelson Cruz – Hit his 16th homer yesterday.   But he’s just about at .300, that’s when the patented Cruz Stall takes over and he ends up back at .265 by June 20th.

Josh Hamilton – Looks like he’s headed for surgery, but will seek a 2nd opinion.  Yesterday, he said it hurts when he’s “…turning over in bed. Or coughing. Or sneezing.” There’s no turning over in bed, coughing or sneezing in baseball!

Ricky Nolasco – The guy that made you cry is coming back.  There’s talk he will take Anibal Sanchez’s spot in the rotation on Sunday as Sanchez hits the DL.

Garrett Atkins – 2 HRs yesterday and now with 5.  Now he’s one off the Subaru pace car that Teahen’s driving.

B.J. Upton – Hit a two-run homer.  I didn’t see it, but my money’s on the scorer giving one of Zobrist’s bombs to Upton.

J.P Howell – Faced two righties as he got the save yesterday.  Maddon may figure if it ain’t broke don’t fix it and go with Howell as the closer.  Howell has a 2.28 ERA on the year, so it’s not broke.

Scott Baker – 7 IP, 2 ER, 10 Ks.  See what happens when there’s no one on when you give up homers?

Jason Kubel – 2 HRs yesterday as he doubled his entire of month of May’s homer total.  He’ll get to 22 homers this year, but it would be slow and tedious like watching The Curious Case of Benjamin Button.

Shane Victorino – The Flying Hawaiian’s takeoff has been delayed for a day with a sore hip.  The Phils hope to have liftoff tomorrow.

Kyle Lohse – Headed to the DL.  Tough break for leagues that only use pitchers whose last names are Lohse.

Jason Bartlett – Supposed to come back next Wednesday.  If anyone dropped him when he went down, then stash him.

Alex Rios – 0-for-5 with 5 Ks.  Rios refuses to let people get too excited about him.  I don’t know, maybe it’s a fear of failure.

Adam Lind – 5-for-5, or the inverse of Rios.  This 5-for-5 game comes on the heels of a week when he raised his average from .283 to .313.  He’s a whole lot more interesting to me than Kubel, even if their numbers may end up being about the same come October.

Kevin Youkilis – Left the game with a tight right calf.  Yesterday it was an ankle injury.  He’s the Greek God of Limps.

Brett Anderson – 7 IP, 0 ER.  Sorry, Brett, I’m still not picking you up in any league.  Speaking of Bretts, there’s this guy where my girlfriend works named Brett who missed two days of work because he cut his gums on a tortilla chip and needed three stitches.  Not even joking.   I think my girlfriend works with Chipper Jones.

Chien-Ming Wang – 4 2/3 IP, 5 ER.  Picking up right where he left off…

Dontrelle Willis – Threw a no-hitter…and still gave up 5 runs.  According to Elias Sports Bureau, this was the worst no-hitter since 2003 when Sidney Ponson blanked the Phillies for one batter then gave up 8 runs.  Actually, they didn’t say that.  Though overheard this week at the Elias Sports Bureau compound, “Jim, from Accounting, paged himself to the front desk three times in one day for a new record.  The third time he got to the front desk, he was fired.”

Randy Johnson – Hey, boys and 2 girls, it’s personal ancedote time!  Rudy and I were in Vegas for New Year’s Eve about seven years ago.  So we’re discussing keepers, not fantasy baseball ones, but this girl I was dating.  She was NOT a keeper.  Between our third and fourth Red Bull and Vodkas, I head off to the bathroom.  I have the bladder of an 8th grader.  (No, I wasn’t a donor recipient.  I’m saying, I pee frequently.)  So I’m at the urinal and guess who walks up to the urinal next to me?  Randy Johnson.  Stoked, I blurt out, “Hey, it’s the Big Unit!”  Probably wrong place, wrong time.

Lemonade was a popular drink and it still is, the Rangers could only get one hit against Willis.  That’s right, Dwyck.  Dontrelle Willis went six and one-third, allowing only three baserunners and K’ing five.  The Rangers came into the game hitting lefties extremely well (.291) with Kinsler at .460 and Michael Young at .372.  So let’s all get jazzamatazzed, right?  Well, I don’t hold the same excitement.  His story definitely has the Lubitsch touch, but his last start was four earned in four and two-thirds against the Twins.  Dontrelle’s opponents will be tough, his recent history has been extremely poor and a 5/4 K/BB is poor.  There’s got to be at least a half dozen guys better on your waivers to take a chance on.  Let someone else buy a ticket for the D-Train.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

James Shields – 8 1/3 IP, 0 ER, zero run support.  If only they batted Sonnanstine third…

Josh Outman – 6 IP, 4 baserunners, 0 ER, 6 Ks.   His Ks are solid, but he walks too many guys and right now he’s getting a bit lucky with how many guys he’s leaving on base.  Then throw in the fact that he pitches for the A’s and their A’nemic offense.  Outman shouldn’t be in, man, outside of AL-Only leagues.

Shairon Martis – 6 IP, 5 ER.  Yeah, should’ve known better than to trust a Nats pitcher.  I’d love to say stick with him, but I don’t trust him enough; his walks are too ugly.  He may be 5-0 on the year, but he could be 5-5 by July.

Elijah Dukes – To the DL with a strained hamstring.  So far the Bowden Fluffers have appropriately sucked.

Orlando Hudson – Day-to-day with a bruised shoulder.  Isn’t that Osso Bucco?  Or is that braised?

J.A. Happ – I know a J.T.  Hagman was a J.R.  The Braves have a G.A.  But J.A.?  Those initials don’t go together.  They’re like N.G.  He’s replacing Chan No in the rotation and I like him in 12 team or deeper for match-ups.  This Saturday against the Yanks isn’t a great one though.

Gerardo Parra – 2-for-4 and hitting well since call-up.  Sometimes guys just breakout for no good reason.  Parra’s got room to play if he’s hot.  Could be what Fowler looked like in April.

Stephen Drew – 0-for-3, batting .203 on the seaosn.  It sure would be nice if he turned it on because the ‘Backs desperately want to believe in him as they bat him second, third and fourth on most nights.

Matt Palmer – 5 IP, 5 ER as he went to 5-0.  Matt Palmer?  Seriously?  Who’s he, a soap opera actor?

Josh Johnson – 6 1/3 IP, 2 ER.  Surreal how poorly my Win Karma is this year.  Johnson was bested by Jon Garland, who has more Wins on the season than him too.  Do I need to do some Angel Heart voodoo shizz?  A Jobu doll?  Matt Palmer?  Please, send me a signal.  Throw me a line.

Kelly Johnson – 3-for-4 with a steal as he batted in the six hole.  A) Johnson’s a streaky hitter. B) He claims to prefer hitting lower in the order. C) There’s no C.

Ian Stewart – 0-for-4 with three Ks.  It helps that Atkins has been dreadful, but Stewart needs to make it count.

Nolan Reimold – 1-for-3 and batting an empty .250.  Same dealio as Stewart.  He has the chance, but he needs to do something with it.

Adam Jones – When the Orioles emerged from their clubhouse, there was a huge cloud of smoke as Jones returned to the lineup.

Joe Mauer – 7th homer of the year.  Obviously, he’s a cyborg.  Or stole Soto’s soul.

Pedro Feliz – 9 for his last 18.  Currently on one of those Happy streaks.

Johnny Cueto – 7 IP, 4 ER.  Not his best start of the year.  The glass half-filled with Cueto Kool-Aid points out he didn’t walk anyone.  Glass half-empty, he gave up two homers.

Colby Rasmus – Has hit two homers in two nights, three homers in the last five games and he had one homer rained out the other day.  Now if he can string together more than one hit in a game, we’ll be all set.

Rick Ankiel – Set to return.  If he’s on waivers anywhere because of an impatient owner, he’s worth a pickup.  Remember Ankiel wasn’t exactly lighting the world on fire when he was playing, so don’t get overzealous with who you drop.

Scott Baker – 5 IP, 4 ER.  And this came against the White Sox who have been scuffling for runs.  I think he’s headed back to the Disgraceful List.

Felix Hernandez – F-Her in the Big A and it didn’t work out well as he allowed 6 runs in 5 and two-thirds.

Barry Zito – 8 IP, 2 ER.  I admit it, I started him last night.  And I will again in his next start against the M’s.  From there, I’ll reevaluate.

Scott Hairston – HR yesterday as he went 2-for-2 and batted third.  I almost picked him up on Monday, but I was banking on a lot of steals against Chris Young and played speed heavy. (I came out with Nadir Bupkis.)

Bill Hall – H.A. double hockey sticks started at 3rd and went 1-for-4 with two Ks as Gamel combed his hair on the bench.

Kerry Wood – 4 earned runs as he blew… the save.  If there was anyone in the Indians bullpen worth owning, I’d say grab him, but alas there’s not.

Brian Bannister – 6 IP, 5 ER.  There’s the Bannister we know and don’t love.

Casey Blake – Hit his ninth homer yesterday and is batting .283 with 26 RBIs.  He’s out-hitting a lot of cornermen right now.

Noah Lowry – Scheduled to undergo surgery this week to have a rib removed from his left side. I know I’m not ordering the prime rib at Lawry’s any time soon.  Also, if I was Joe Nathan, I’d be very careful.

Here’s what I said last year about Mat Gamel and his comparison to Ryan Braun, “Ryan Braun, The Hebrew Hammer, hits for average, power and butchered plays at 3rd base.  Well, Gamel can slug with the best of them and plays 3rd like Jenny McCarthy in a celebrity softball game.  Not to mention, his name is almost Gimel, which is the third letter of the Hebrew alphabet.  The similarities are endless!”  And that’s me quoting me!  Wanna really blow your mind?  I wrote a Mat Gamel fantasy baseball outlook post back in December of last year.  Prescient ain’t just a word I can’t spell without Dictionary.com, it’s a state of mind!  So what can we expect of him, he’s better than Nolan Reimold.  Right now.  He can hit.  I could even see grabbing him in ten team leagues.  He could be The Difference Maker (which would be a great name for a professional wrestler).  The only thing holding Gamel back is he fields like he has two left feet — on the end of his arms.  If the Brewers dare to play him every day over their blahtoon of Hall and Counsell, you should play him too.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Ryan Ludwick – To the DL.  “Hello, Rasmus.”  “Hey, Duncan, you wanna play every day?” “Sure.”

Gerardo Parra – This one doesn’t walk people, he runs.  He replaced Krispie last night and might spell Byrnes on some occasions.  He’s a solid pickup for the speed deprived.  Parra’s upside is what Maybin should’ve done — 5 homers, 25 steals.  He shouldn’t be a liability on average.  Obviously, picking him up depends on your league, but he should be grabbed in all NL-Only leagues and mixed leagues deeper than 12 teams.

Nolan Reimold – Getting the call. Ceiling is 20 homers and a .280 average.  Let’s see, for right now:  Gamel, Reimold, Coghlan, Parra, LaPorta, in that order.  And all are better than Hochevar.

Bryan Augenstein – 6 IP, 5 ER, 3 K.  Augenstein reminds me a bit of Slowey because of how few walks he issues.  Just remember how Hochevar stole your innocence.

Carl Crawford – Left with a bruised shoulder.  Should be okay. Get well soon, Carl!

Adam Jones – Left the game with a hamstring strain.  Might be headed to the DL.  Somebody totally harshed his buzz.

Jimmy Rollins – In Premiere’s “Spotted” section, it said that someone saw Rollins do something productive yesterday.

Alexei Ramirez – 3-for-3 yesterday.  Do this for another month and we’ll be even.

Ryan Zimmerman – Here comes the 0-for-30 game streak.  Kidding.  He’s going to be a top five 3rd baseman this year.  Recognize!

Cliff Lee – 7 IP, 0 ER, 9 Ks and the Win.  I’m done fighting it.  Doode turned a corner somewhere.  I’m not trading for him, but I can understand it.

Mark Buehrle – 7 IP, 4 ER, 6 Ks.  More in line with what I expect from him, but still a few more strikeouts.

Jo-Jo Reyes – 3 IP, 5 ER.  Tommy Hanson begins to pack his Hypercolor t-shirts and Zubaz pants.

Scott Richmond – 1 2/3 IP, 5 ER.  Told ya he wasn’t long for your team.  I wouldn’t start him again in any league.  As they say on shuffleboard courts, he’s kaput.

Ty Wigginton – Hit his 2nd homer of the year yesterday.  Shot in the dark here, but Wigginton gets real hot for a couple of weeks at a time.  This might be one of those times.

Johnny Cueto – 7 IP, 3 ER.  He’ll be about a 3.25 ERA pitcher this year.  That’s very good.

Joel Pineiro – 6 IP, 5 ER.  See what I said about Richmond then multiply it by three.

Matt Palmer – Complete game, 4 ER to move to 4-0 on the year.  Before you get crazy with yourself, he’s a thirty-year-old rookie and he’s not Dennis Quaid.

Kip Wells – 2nd save and only one run allowed.  Kip walking into the clubhouse, “What can’t Kip Wells do?!  What!?”  Heckler, “Pitch effectively for any extended period of time.”  Kip lowers his head and sighs.

Ross Ohlendorf – 6 IP, 1 ER, 5 Ks.  Talk to the Dorf!

Juan Pierre - I love guys who steal bases up six runs.  You go, Juan!  Get you some, gluttony!

Shairon Martis – 7 IP, 1 ER and his fifth win (the Nats only have 11!)  With a first name like an Israeli prime minister or an Osbourne, you want to write off Shairon Martis, but he’s not pitching above his head right now outside from Wins.  I’d grab him in mixed leagues as a 5th starter.

Ryan Theriot – 2 HRs to bring his total of what the effs to 5.  Guess hiring Jose Canseco as his new strength and conditioning coach wasn’t such a bad idea.

Geovany Soto – Finally.

Chris Young – 4 IP, 6 ER.  Trouble with fly ball pitchers if the wind’s blowing out.

Adrian Gonzalez – 2 HRs and one call to his agent, “Can you get me out of Petco?”

Rickie Weeks – Hit his 9th homer yesterday and is hitting .286.    At some point, he’ll chuck in 15 to 20 steals too.  This could be the year where owners finally see what he can do when he stays healthy.

Ricky Nolasco – 3 2/3 IP, 8 ER.  At this point, he’s probably ending up on waivers in some leagues, but if he’s still owned, I’d fleece his owners as they struggle to sit down.

Chris Coghlan – Member that month long leash Maybin had to hang himself?  Yeah, Coghlan’s now getting it. Hopefully, he can make a Windsor knot from the noose and call it a tie.

Dontrelle Willis – 4 2/3 IP, 4 ER.  There’s nothing that a big Miguel Olivo hug can’t fix.

Brandon Lyon – 2 2/3 IP, 5 ER.  You think when Leyland sent him out there for the 3rd inning he just wanted the game to be over so he could go have a smoke?

Garrett Atkins – 0-for-4, batting .195 on the year.  Clint Barmes is out slugging him .415 to .319.   In case anyone’s confused, Barmes is not having a good season.

Troy Percival – 1/3 IP, 4 ER.  Wasn’t a save situation, but it was still a pounding.  I picked up Wheeler in a league, just in case.

Josh Hamilton – Two games from the DL.  Two homers.  As his street value rises.

Russell Branyan – HR yesterday.  I’ve owned him in one league all year.  17/7/31/.271 — Not bad, right?  Yeah, those are Prince Fielder’s numbers.  Branyan’s 20/8/16/.286/1 — And I didn’t draft Branyan in the 2nd round.  Cust kayin’.

Back in early November, I said, “Gregg, Cubs Closer?”  Well, remove the question mark and call me Nostradumbass.  It’s not surprising at all to me that Marmol’s not going to be the closer to start the season.  There’s no reason in debating whether Piniella made the right decision.  Of course he didn’t.  Joking.  There’s points for both sides.  As I said the other day, do you wanna lose the game in the 8th or the 9th?  Either way, all you should concern yourself with is who is getting the saves.  The pickle here is Marmol is actually worth owning even if he only gets 5-10 saves all year.  So if you drafted Marmol, I’d hold him just to pad your pitching stats.  If you have Gregg, nice late pick in your draft.  You probably just fell into 35 saves.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw this weekend in spring training for fantasy baseball:

Brandon Morrow – Says he’s the closer.  And so it is.  You know what?  Every single one of you sitting around reading this blog for the last month could’ve stepped up and said you’d be the closer for the Mariners.  But what did you do?  You watered down the ketchup, made sure everyone’s coffee was hot and passive-aggressively stuck broken glass under your eighteen-year-old boss’s car tires.  You had to know with the top option being Miguel Batista that the job could’ve been yours.  Now march into your job and tell them you’re the new fry cook.  You got hot oil skillz!  Morrow’ll be fine as the closer if he can get/stay healthy.  Not sure what they’re going to do with Chad Cordero.  Maybe they can turn him into the starter Morrow should’ve been.

Jeff Clement – In a disappointing move, Clement was sent down.  You know where he went wrong?  He should’ve told the Mariners he was their catcher.  Guess Mattel can sponsor that Kenji doll night now.  Mommy, why doesn’t Kenji have a….THAT’S HIS ATHLETIC SUPPORTER!

Carlos Villanueva – As I mentioned in our fantasy baseball forums, Villanueva will fill-in for Trevor Hoffman.  Is Villanueva the best guy for the job?  Who knows?  Doesn’t matter.  SAGNOF.   Ours is not to reason why, ours is to pickup up the replacement closer and hope he keeps the job, unless of course you have Hoffman too.  You got to remember to Handcuff the Hoff!

Brett Gardner – Named opening day center fielder for the Yanks.  Back in November, I sowed the Gardner.

Matt Lindstrom – Appears to be on track to open the season.  Unless you have a pressing need somewhere, I’d hold Nunez for now.

Hanley Ramirez – Hit a HR.  Sore shoulder better?  You make the call!  Or not.

Chris Carter – Might get a shot to be a reserve outfielder for the Sawx.  The Red Sox were missing that Sci-Fi edge in the outfield since Manny left.

Troy Glaus – Rehab from shoulder surgery isn’t going so well.  Word is he might not make it back in late April/early May after all.  Bet they are regretting that Rolen for Glaus trade now!

Joe Mauer – Expected to miss the first month of the season.  The bad back must be from carrying the dwindling pennant hopes of Twins fans.  Let’s hope Liriano doesn’t strain his elbow picking up some of the slack.

Justin Duchscherer – Having elbow surgery.  Supposed to be out a month.  I forget what I said and I don’t feel like looking it up, but I think I pegged him for 5 starts this year.  Duchscherer’s elbow problems may have been exacerbated by autograph-seeking fans this spring.  You gotta stop at J.D., man!

Kelvim Escobar – I keep mentioning this guy, but in the last league I drafted I was able to snag him with like the 345th pick.  Um, he should be going before that.  When healthy (which he’s nearing), he’s good.

Chris Young – It’s a hard knock life being a 6′10″ pitcher.  More strain in throwing the ball down, bigger target to comebackers, lack of selection in Big & Tall shops, etc.  He’s been rather bad in Spring Training.  Perhaps it’s time to recognize that a pitcher can only go so far with a sub-90 MPH fastball and a unique propensity for fly ball outs.  Hopefully, he’ll come around and be solid, at least in Petco.

Mark Teahen – A positive reflection of the Royal roster is that there are less open spots to stash the mediocrity of Mark Teahen.  Last stop – 2nd base!  From a fantasy perspective, that’s not half bad.  Just 40% bad.

John Smoltz – He was due back June 1st but he’s ahead of schedule.  Now they are saying perhaps mid-May.  If you’ve got 2 DL slots in your league, might as well stash him in one.

Taylor Teagarden – Officially backing up Salty.  I think he can still get 300 ABs and contribute.  When asked why Saltamacchia over Teagarden, Texas brass explained, “Salty’s name goes to 12!”

Jeremy Guthrie – Opening Day starter for the Orioles.  Now if they can figure out a way for it to rain four out of five days, they should be fine.

Dontrelle Willis – On DL with anxiety disorder.  He’s been Greinke’d!  Maybe he just needs a Miguel Olivo hug.  Maybe he’ll go the Ankiel route.  You know, Willis was a very good hitter in the NL.  There’s got to be a Razzball glossary term for a hitter trapped in a pitcher’s body.  How about… Redesignated Hitters.

You’re so lucky there’s an extra day in February or this post would have had to wait until March. We’ve already ran through the rest of the top outfielders for 2008. Today we look at the rest of the top pitchers. These are the pitchers that I usually draft. I love Peavy and Santana this year, but I won’t have them, unless they fall to me. By fall, I mean late second round. They’ll be lots of value from them, but pitching is too unpredictable and way too easy to patch together decent enough stats. If you draft Santana with your first round pick, who will be your second pick Carlos Lee? Mark Teixeira? Eh, these names don’t excite me enough in the 2nd round to forgo a hitter in the first. I’d prefer to take a Verlander/Haren-type a little later on.  Solid number one starter, but not a first rounder. Anyway, if you want to look at the 2008 Player Rater that was put together by our very own, Rudy Gamble; click here. If you’d like to look at the top twenty projections for every other position; click here. Now, without further ado, your top starting pitching for 2008, rankings 21-40.

21. Javier Vazquez – Vazquez had the best ’07 season you didn’t know about. (If you did know, then jump ahead, I wouldn’t want to bore you.) 3.74/1.14 with over 200 Ks in ‘07. He finally returned to his former Montreal glory. And, yes, that is the only time Montreal and glory have ever been used in a sentence. Projections: 17-7/3.50/1.15/200

22. Scott Kazmir – Purposely left Kazmir off my top twenty, cause I don’t want any starter sporting a high WHIP. Now there’s word that he has arm problems. That article is a press release filled with optimism. Aside, aren’t all injury articles press releases? Aren’t you sick of this? Reporter, “How does the arm feel?” Athlete, “It’s a little sore, but I’m going to be fine. The doctor said that I should be back on the field in seven to ten days.” Is there anyone left that speaks the truth? Stop with the press-release tone! But I digress. Maybe Kazmir’s injury is nothing, but here’s something, why would you risk it? Pitchers with arm problems in spring training are a caution flag. Do yourself a favor, don’t draft a pitcher with a spring training arm injury. Projections: 14-8/3.75/1.30/210

23. Daisuke Matsuzaka – His division is ridunkiculous with offense. The last pitcher I drafted from the AL East in any league, I believe, was Roy Halladay in ’06 and that turned out vaguely crappy. If you can get excited about Dice-K, I’m assuming you’re a Son of Sam Horn messageboard poster. His best quality (which, all snark aside, is actually a really good quality) is his durability. Projections: 17-7/4.00/1.25/200

24. A.J. Burnett – I know; I keep preaching safety first. Avoid injury problems. Yes. And that’s true. But this whole next tier of pitchers has question marks. A.J. is the most predictable when he’s healthy and even his injuries are predictable. There’s safety in that. Projections: 14-8/3.85/1.20/170

25. Brett Myers – I’m not too concerned about the inexplicable bullpen move last year. Can’t be great for his arm to go from 200 innings to 100 back to 200, but Myers seems like too much of a total doucebag to let it bother him too much. Maybe he slows down in August, but by then you’re trucking towards first place and there’s some spectacular call-up that can replace him for a start or two or three. Myers has my full endorsement. Projections: 16-7/3.75/1.28/175

26. Pedro Martinez – It’s with great regret that Pedro places no higher than 26th. He was absolutely incredible when I was in my twenties and now, well, we’re both getting old. I miss the old Pedro like I miss the old me, or the newer me. Alas… Projections:12-5/3.30/1.15/160 in 140 innings/24 starts.

25. Francisco Liriano – Heffin’ hey, he’s back! At least according to the stock press release-type articles being written. I’m not drafting Liriano in any league. It’s too fast, too soon. If you’re feeling lucky go to Vegas, if you want to play fantasy baseball, skip Liriano. Projections: 10-3/3.15/1.05/150 in 120 innings/20 starts.

26. Yovani Gallardo – I’ve detailed how you should avoid 2nd year players if at all possible (hitters or pitchers). YoGa has a good offensive team behind him or I would have clumped him down with Lincecum. (Instead, Lincecum will be clumped with Sheets. Which we’ll get to, sorry, I was being premature.)  Projections: 14-8/3.50/1.20/180

27. Ian Snell – I enjoyed a good season from Ian Snell last year, but, no matter how it played out, he always got a little roughed up. Whether it was Paulino dropping a pop-up or if he gave up a home run, Snell got rattled. He’s another year older and I think he can get better in ’08. I’d draft him with confidence. Projections: 12-9/3.60/1.20/200

28. Chien-ming Wang – Wang’s even a little too safe/unexciting for me. It’s hard to find fault with drafting him. He proved last year he doesn’t need to strikeout hitters to be effective. I do kinda worry when someone can’t strikeout someone out, but wins are wins and his ratios aren’t bad. Projections: 18-8/3.75/1.25/100

29. Tim Hudson – Boring, right? Yeah, he is a boring pick. Boring wins titles! Besides, I wouldn’t draft the next three pitchers on any team. Projections: 15-8/3.70/1.25/135

30. Matt Cain – Yes, he’s the opposite of boring, but his team’s offensive standout is Aaron Rowand.  His stuff is filthy; I’ll give you that. His division’s All-Stars probably would lose at least one game to the Taiwanese Little League team. His ballpark is ideal for a pitcher. Yet, he has too many games where he gives up six runs in five innings. He’s young still and he walks too many people. Maybe next year… Projections: 11-9/3.90/1.30/190

31. Tim Lincecum – Tim over at Roto Authority has a man crush on Lincecum like I have on Michael J. Fox. I think you’re asking for trouble if you draft Lincecum. As is my policy, second year players provide too much risk.  Taking a second year player on the worst offensive team is additional risk. Will he try to do too much? Will hitters catch up to him? Let it play out on someone else’s team. Projections: 10-7/ 3.75/1.25/170

32. Ben Sheets – Ugh, I wanted to just leave him off the list to prove a point, but he’s got great stuff. Unfortunately, you can’t draft him. He’ll make you miserable. If anything, let someone else draft him, then, after the second injury, trade Nick Punto for him and hope for a good September. Projections: 60-Day DL

33./34. Derek Lowe/Brad Penny  – See Hudson, Tim. (I could see one of you schmohawks commenting below that Lowe/Penny doesn’t get enough Ks to win titles or something like that. Penny/Lowe’s your third starter. Try and draft safety with your third starter and you’ll be in the hunt for a title in September. Draft Lincecum with your third starter and you’ll be in fifth place wondering where you went wrong.) (Penny note: I’m aware of his splits, but simply trade or apply caution in the second half.) Projections for both: 15-7/3.90/1.30/140

35. Ted Lilly – I almost tossed Lilly into my Penny/Lowe daily double, but he doesn’t have the advantageous pitcher’s park. Not to mention, there’s no weather in LA, when Wrigley’s blowing out, you want no part of any pitcher. That’s a headache I try to avoid. Projections: 16-8/4.20/1.20/160

36. Chad Billingsley – While your leaguemates are drafting Lincecum and Cain, I give you my approval to draft Chad late. He’s young and he’s a bit wild. Two things I usually avoid, but his team will be a lot better than the ‘Aints. That’s a confidence builder. With Grady Little, one of the worst managers of all-time (him and Jim Tracy were vying for top spot) gone, there’s reason to think Torre’s inheriting a future Cy Young. I’m thinking it, at least. 16-7/3.20/1.30/190 in a 180 innings/27 starts

37. Kelvim Escobar – I see Kelvim turning up on a lot of draft rankings for 2008. Yeah, see, the thing is, he’s missing all of April. That’ll turn into the All-Star Break, then he’ll return in August for the stretch run. Pretend like you have an idea of the haps and don’t draft him. Projections: Nothing yet, but maybe I’ll remind you in August to pick him up. If you’re good…

38. Adam Wainwright – Perfect example of why you avoid 2nd year players. His 1st half  was horrendous. Unusable. His 2nd half was great. I know he’s not as exciting as Cain or Lincecum but here’s someone who can actually help your team. Projections: 12-7/3.20/1.30/160

39/40. Phillip Hughes/Homer Bailey – Just give them a year. That’s all I’m asking. They might be good, but you don’t want any part of the other side of the coin and you have to draft them too early. Wait, ‘til next year and everyone’s excitement for these two is gone, then pounce. I repeat:  They might be good. The problem is they might be bad. If you want risk, have casual sex with a prostitute. Projections: 12-7/4.00/1.30/140

Your Bonus, you’re welcome:

41. Dontrelle Willis – Usually when pitchers go from the NL to the AL, their value takes a hit (literally!), but Dontrelle’s got some things going for him. His delivery is convoluted, he’ll have lots more run support and he won’t have to worry about hitting anymore. That last one seems like a bad joke, but he really did take his hitting seriously, a little too seriously, to the point I’d wonder if he cared more about that than pitching. I could see Willis getting back some value he’s lost over the last two seasons. Just don’t expect pre-06 numbers. Projections: 16-9/4.15/1.35/180