Fantasy Baseball Advice

Can you believe that the BBWAA gave our blog voting rights for this year’s MLB Hall of Fame ballot?

Just kidding.  They haven’t made a decision that ill-informed since, um, electing Jim Rice and Andre Dawson.  But I’m going to pretend we have a vote this year and explain the decisions on our ballot.

Here is some background on how I analyze players for the HOF:

Much like the Earth and many a good joke, the views on Hall of Fame worthiness have two poles.  The first pole is the traditional view which focuses on seasonal and career ‘baseball card’ stats like AVG/Hits/HR/RBI or Wins/ERA, factors in dominance based on MVP/Cy Young voting + reputation during one’s career, and the post-season success for that individual and their team(s).    The second pole is the sabermetric view which relies on more advanced statistics with the aim of crediting the best players based on objective criteria.

I am much, much closer to the sabermetric pole than the traditionalist pole.  My view on baseball (and life) is to question and adapt my views when presented with compelling information.  I’ve been convinced that OBP & Times on Base are superior to AVG and Hits and that the traditional view of baseball has underestimated the value of walks.  I can’t view HRs or even Slugging percentage as an absolute reflection of power and look for advanced stats to adjust for era and park factors.  Runs and RBIs are clearly important – you need to score runs to win games – but it’s hard to balance these stats against lineup strength, era, park factors, etc.  The same goes for pitching:  I think ERA/WHIP needs to be adjusted per era/park factors/team defense, Wins are a questionable measure given their reliance on team strength, etc.

As advanced statistics have improved, I put less faith in MVPs/Cy Youngs/All-Star voting.  The writers (and fans for All-Star) voting for those awards over the years didn’t either have access to the advanced learnings that sabermetrics has provided and/or don’t believe it.  For instance, let’s look at the 1996 MVP voting.  Juan Gonzalez had a fantastic hitting year (.314/47/144 with a .368 OBP, below average running/defense and favorable park that led him to not even make the AL Top 10 in OPS+) but exactly how could that be considered more valuable than Ken Griffey Jr. (.303/49/140 with a .392 OBP, solid baserunning, and the most valuable defensive player in the league based on Defensive WAR) or Alex Rodriguez (.358/36/123 with a .414 OBP, positive baserunning and above-average SS defense)?  In fact, of the 21 players to get at least one AL MVP vote in 1996, Juan Gonzalez had the worst Wins Above Replacement (WAR).  In addition, there are also some years where a player wins the MVP/Cy Young by default because there really isn’t a player who warrants it and vice versa (see 1996 where Ken Griffey and Alex Rodriguez – as well as Chuck Knoblauch – were worthy MVP candidates).  Does that make their year any less MVP-worthy?

So here are the criteria/stats I’m using for my HOF analysis:

1) Career Excellence - I am measuring this by career WAR (Wins Above Replacement).  This statistic – which was developed by Sean Smith and is available for free on Baseball-Reference.com or Sean’s ownBaseballProjection.com – calculates the value of a hitter’s offense/defense/running or a pitcher’s pitching vs. those of a replacement player (minor leaguer or waiver wire claim).  Many factors such as position, era, park, defense (for pitchers) are accounted for.  (note:  there are slight differences in WAR calculations between Baseball-Reference and BaseballProjection.com – I use those from B-R unless otherwise noted.)

2) Peak Excellence - I think most traditional and sabermetric fans and voters agree that – everything equal – a player who had a dominant peak is more preferable to one who was just very good for a long period of time.  Rather than focus on awards, I’ve taken the B-R (and I assume Sean Smith) suggested breaks of 5.0+ WAR for an All-Star season and 8.0+ WAR for an MVP season.    For reference, between 1901 and 2010, there were 282 hitting seasons and 132 pitching seasons that surpassed 8.0.  That roughly 2.7 hitters and 1.2 pitchers per year which seems fair when you consider there are about 2x the hitters than pitchers who play enough to reach this total.

(Bit of trivia:  The year with the most 8.0+ WAR hitters is 2004 with 6:  Barry Bonds (12.4), Adrian ‘El Senator‘ Beltre (10.1), Albert Pujols (9.4), Scott Rolen (9.2), Jim Edmonds (8.4), and Ichiro (8.1).  The NL MVP vote went exactly in WAR order for the 5 NL’ers.  Vladamir Guerrero (7.4) beat Ichiro for AL MVP who finished 7th.   The year with the most pitchers 8.0+ was 1971 with 6:  Wilbur Wood (10.7), Fergie Jenkins (9.2), Tom Seaver (9.2), Vida Blue (8.8), Mickey Lolich (8.6), and Dave Roberts (8.5).  Vida Blue and Mickey Lolich finished above Wilbur Wood for AL Cy Young while Fergie Jenkins edged out Tom Seaver for NL.)

I’ve combined the above into one stat using the following formula:  Career WAR + 10 * MVP seasons (8.0+ WAR) + 5 * All-Star seasons (5.0-7.9 WAR).  I’ll call this ‘Peak-Adjusted WAR’ for the series of posts.  This is admittedly arbitrary but seems to do a fair job at rewarding those with high peaks vs. long careers.  Case in point:  Carlton Fisk has one more career WAR than Gary Carter (67.3 to 66.3) aided by playing close to 2 more seasons worth of games.  But Gary Carter had 8 seasons of All-Star value (most ever for a catcher amongst retired players as of 2005) while Carlton Fisk only had 4.  This adjustment puts Carter ahead of Fisk 106.3-87.3 (2nd and 3rd behind Johnny Bench).  Sandy Koufax has far less career WAR to Don Sutton (54.5 to 70.8) but his 3 MVP seasons (1963, 1965, 1966) and two All-Star seasons give him 40 extra points where Don Sutton’s 4 All-Star seasons give him 20.  Thus, Koufax scores higher 94.5 to 90.8.  (Click here for access to the spreadsheet on Google Docs).

In looking at the scores across all players, I’d say for me that a peak-adjusted WAR of 100 is a no-brainer selection, anything from 80-100 is in the consideration set (with more bias towards positions with less players who’ve reached that plateau, and anything under 80 isn’t a consideration except for relief pitchers or special cases (e.g., an untimely death, Negro-league players, a player lost peak time to serve in the war, etc.)

3) Hall of Fame Position Representativeness - While WAR takes position into account for single seasons, it cannot adjust for the fact that certain positions (notably Catcher and Middle Infield) are tougher to have long careers than other positions (notably corner OF/1B/DH).  My general POV is that if a player was in the top 10 at his position in the past 60 years (1945-2005), he warrants Hall of Fame consideration even if their stats look lower than average.

Players On The Razzball 2011 Hall of Fame Ballot (see links for posts on each player):

Rank	Player	Peak-Adjusted WAR	Career WAR	MVP (8.0+ WAR)	All-Star (5-7.9 WAR)
1	Jeff Bagwell	139.9	79.9	3 (+30)	6 (+30)
2	Bert Blyleven	145.5	90.1	1 (+10)	9 (+45)
3	Alan Trammell	106.9	66.9	1 (+10)	6 (+30)
4	Barry Larkin	103.9	68.9	0 (+0)	7 (+35)
5	Edgar Martinez	112.2	67.2	0 (+0)	9 (+45)
6	Tim Raines	94.6	64.6	0 (+0)	6 (+30)
7	Roberto Alomar	88.5	63.5	0 (+0)	5 (+25)
8	Mark McGwire	98.1	63.1	0 (+0)	7 (+35)

Players Considering For The Future

Rank	Player	Peak-Adjusted WAR	Career WAR	MVP (8.0+ WAR)	All-Star (5-7.9 WAR)
1	Kevin Brown	99.8	64.8	1 (+10)	5 (+25)
2	Rafael Palmeiro	86.0	66.0	0 (+0)	4 (+20)
3	John Olerud*	96.8	56.8	2 (+20)	4 (+20)
4	Larry Walker	92.3	67.3	1 (+10)	3 (+15)

* Yes, I’m shocked how high John Olerud scores on peak-adjusted WAR.  He had two 8.0+ WAR seasons which is two more than the following 1B/DHs on the ballot Rafael Palmiero, Don Mattingly, Fred McGriff, Edgar Martinez, Harold Baines, and Tino Martinez.  This is because John Olerud had a much better OBP than anyone on this list (other than Edgar Martinez) and was a more valuable glove than anyone else during his peak years (about equal with Palmeiro and Mattingly).   The AVG/OBP/SLG and OPS+ for those 8.0+ WAR years were:  .363/.473/.599 in 1993 with a 186 OPS+ and a .354/.447/.551 with a 163 OPS+ in 1998.   Mattingly never cleared .400 OBP once in his career, Palmeiro did it once (a pot-friendly .420 in 1999), and McGriff did it twice (.403 and .400).  Neither of the three had a higher OPS+ than those two Olerud years.

Players Who Fall Short

Player	Peak-Adjusted WAR	Career WAR	MVP (8.0+ WAR)	All-Star (5-7.9 WAR)
Jack Morris	44.3	39.3	0 (+0)	1 (+5)
Dale Murphy	74.2	44.2	0 (+0)	6 (+30)
Fred McGriff	65.5	50.5	0 (+0)	3 (+15)
Don Mattingly	59.8	39.8	0 (+0)	4 (+20)
Dave Parker	57.8	37.8	0 (+0)	4 (+20)
Al Leiter	53.8	38.8	0 (+0)	3 (+15)
Juan Gonzalez	43.5	33.5	0 (+0)	2 (+10)
Harold Baines	37.0	37.0	0 (+0)	0 (+0)
Bret Boone	36.4	21.4	1 (+10)	1 (+5)
Marquis Grissom	35.6	25.6	0 (+0)	2 (+10)
B.J. Surhoff	34.4	34.4	0 (+0)	0 (+0)
Raul Mondesi	32.2	27.2	0 (+0)	1 (+5)
Tino Martinez	32.2	27.2	0 (+0)	1 (+5)
Lee Smith	30.3	30.3	0 (+0)	0 (+0)
Charles Johnson	27.0	22.0	0 (+0)	1 (+5)
John Franco	25.8	25.8	0 (+0)	0 (+0)
Benito Santiago	23.8	23.8	0 (+0)	0 (+0)
Bobby Higginson	21.4	21.4	0 (+0)	0 (+0)
Carlos Baerga	21.0	16.0	0 (+0)	1 (+5)
Kirk Reuter	12.1	12.1	0 (+0)	0 (+0)

While we at Razzball are content toiling within the modest confines of fantasy baseball blogdom, we occasionally like to flex our journalistic muscles and take on a challenging interview.

Our interview subject is the one and only Rickey Henderson.

Rudy:  The Hall of Fame nominations are coming up and it’s predicted you’ll be a near unanimous pick.  What will it mean to you to make the Hall of Fame?

Rickey:  It’s an honor but, really, Rickey just loved to play baseball.  If I was that anxious to make the Hall of Fame, I wouldn’t have come back to play for the Red Sox in 2002. Or the Dodgers in 2003.  Or the Newark Bears in 2004.  Or the San Diego Surf Dawgs in 2005.

Rudy:  Bill James once said about you, “If you could split him in two, you’d have two Hall of Famers.”  Quite the compliment.  What do you have to say about that?

Rickey: I don’t know who these guys Bill and James are but that’s just silly. How is Rickey supposed to play with only one arm and one leg?  How is Rickey supposed to play with half of a head?  How would I find a uniform and sunglasses to fit me?  Unless they were saying they’d split me at my waist.  My top half could still hit and I could run using my arms.  And my legs could still steal bases although I couldn’t slide head first.  So I think the half-Rickeys could’ve been good players but I don’t know about Hall-of-Famers.

Rudy:  If there was one player in the last 30 years that played a game similar to yours, it would have to be Tim Raines who is in his 2nd year on the ballot.  Do you think he deserves to go in?

Rickey:  Most definitely.  Rock was a great player.  Really great.  His numbers are really impressive – especially if you include those years he played in the Canadian Baseball League.  We’d talk on the phone a lot about stolen base strategy and hamstring exercises.  He also deserves credit for shaking that soda addiction he had earlier in his career.

Rudy:  One of my favorite teams growing up was the 1985 Yankees which won 97 games and had yourself, Don Mattingly, and Dave Winfield in their prime but finished 2 games behind Toronto.  Your stats that year were phenomenal – 146/24/72/80/.314.  What kept that team from winning it all?

Rickey:  It wasn’t the hitting that’s for sure!  (laughs)  That was a great top of the lineup and we scored a lot of runs.  The pitching just wasn’t that good besides the Alligator (Ron ‘Gator’ Guidry).  We had this one old knucklehead pitcher (Phil Niekro).  Rickey envied the other team’s hitters whenever he pitched – he could’ve stolen a lot of bases on him.

Rudy:  The 1985 Yanks were managed by Billy Martin – who was also your first coach in Oakland.  You had a great relationship with him yet he infamously feuded with Reggie Jackson – another outfielder with a big personality.  Why did the two of you get along so well?

Rickey:  Rickey and Billy were like two puzzling pieces that fit.  Rickey appreciated baseball fundamentals.  Billy stressed baseball fundamentals. Rickey played aggressive.  Billy managed aggressive. Rickey was intoxicating when he played the game.  Billy was intoxicating when he managed the game.

Rudy:  You had four different stints with your hometown A’s – the last one was in 1998 when Billy Beane was just starting out as GM.  You stole 66 SBs that year (at the age of 39).  Since then, only two Athletic players have stolen more than 15 bases.  This is no surprise to anyone who read Moneyball as Billy Beane is not a fan of the stolen base.  What is your view on Moneyball?

Rickey:  Rickey has mixed feelings on it.  I’ve been told that I played with Billy Beane one season on the Athletics.  He respects the importance of getting on base and that was a big part of my game.  But then he expects Rickey to not steal when he gets to first base?  That’s like taking a horse to water and then not letting him drink.  Rickey likes to drink water.

Rudy:  You’ve gotten a lot of slack over the years for being a showboat – the snatch catch, the slo-mo home run trot, the sunglasses, the speaking in the third person…Anything you’d like to say to that?

Rickey:  Rickey played hard every game but he also liked to entertain his audience.  And that audience includes Rickey.  If you can’t please your #1 fan, how can you please anybody else?

Rudy:  So you’re one of the best real baseball players in recent memory.  How are you as a fantasy baseball player?

Rickey:  If Rickey sets his mind to it, he can be the best at anything he wants.

Rudy:  Do you want to be in our fantasy baseball league next year?

Rickey:  You’re not in Rickey’s league.  Nobody’s in Rickey’s league.

Rudy: Then how can you be the best if you’re not in anyone’s league?

Rickey:  Rickey doesn’t need to finish first to know he’s the best.  Rickey doesn’t stop until he finishes in first.  Then he steals second and third before scoring a run.

Rudy:  Fantasy baseball players are obsessed about stats.  Were you obsessed with stats as a real baseball player?

Rickey:  Rickey was never motivated by stats.  He was motivated by numbers.  Wins, runs, steals.  That’s what mattered.

Rudy: Where do you see yourself in five years?

Rickey:  I think this Hall of Fame nomination will get people realizing how great a player Rickey was and he’ll be re-signed.  I figure when I pass 50 that I’ll slow down a bit and I’ll become a player-coach.

Rudy:  I guess anything is possible, right?

Rickey:  Nothing’s impossible for Rickey.   You don’t have enough fingers and toes to count out Rickey.

Rudy:  Thanks Rickey for all the great memories and taking time out to answer some of our questions.

Rickey:  I’d like to thank Rickey as well.

The Fantasy Baseball Hall of Fame (in conjunction with Razzball.com) is a new website dedicated to recognizing the accomplishments of Major League ballplayers during the “fantasy era” (1980-present). The greatest of these players will be elected to the Fantasy Baseball Hall of Fame.

Six first basemen are enshrined today, a position that is arguably the strongest in the history of fantasy baseball.

First base is the power position of fantasy baseball.  Each spot around the diamond has had their fair share of power hitting players, but year in and year out, fantasy owners rely on first basemen more than any other for their main source of home runs. In fact, since the fantasy era, first basemen have the led fantasy leagues in the long ball each year except 1982 and 1983, when Mike Schmidt skewed the numbers enough to vault third basemen into first overall.

A few weeks ago, I ran a chart in the shortstop induction article, showing the number of times each position finished, on average, first overall.  I found a flaw however, by counting all the players at a position, and not just the ones who would have been “fantasy worthy”, I overestimated the impact of certain positions.  Re-running the data it is clear there is no argument as to which positions have been the best since 1980 – it’s either first base or outfield.    The chart below depicts the average score for “fantasy worthy” players who were eligible at these two positions:

In the first half of the 1980s both positions were relatively equal, with one season, 1981, easily going to the outfielders.  In the period of 1986 through 1991 however, the first base crew easily outpaced their counterparts in four of the five years.  Through 1995 the two positions were either equal or first base was winning handily.  This gives them a 10 year stretch were first basemen were the class of fantasy baseball.  Since 1995 the positions have been relatively equivalent, with 5 years going to the outfield, 4 to the first basemen, and three with finishes close enough to call a tie.

Finally, below is the average score of ‘fantasy worthy’ players by position, broken down by decade:

Just further proof that first base gets it done.  On to the inductees.

Albert Pujols
In his current trend, Pujols will be the only player of the fantasy era to never go below the 10 FBHOF point threshold until the downturn of his career.  Think about this for a minute.  At the end of his 2007 season, Pujols was ranked 4th among batters in overall FBHOF Score and 3rd in Peak score.  The players ahead of him are Barry Bonds, Alex Rodriguez, and Rickey Henderson in terms of overall score, and just Rodriguez and Bonds in peak score.  The three of these are inner circle Hall of Famers and none of them has accomplished what Pujols has done so far, in fantasy baseball terms anyway.

Since his rookie season, Pujols has put up FBHOF worthy statistics each year.  It took Bonds five years to reach 10 FBHOF points and both Henderson and Rodriguez reached the mark in their second eligible years.  While most of this is academic in the long run (does it really matter that Rodriguez appeared in just 65 games his first two years?), it is still an amazing accomplishment.

Pujols’ best year was in 2003 when he batted .359 with 137 R, 43 HR, 124 RBI, and 5 SB.  This scored him 17.2 FBHOF Points, 6th best all time for a batter.  “King Albert” has been eligible at First Base, Third Base, and in the Outfield; and is the only player to finish as the best overall at more than two positions.

Jeff Bagwell
In 1994 Bagwell was the best player on the planet.  In 110 games (strike season) he hit 39 HR, 116 RBI, 104 R, and 15 SB.  Prorated over 162 games the numbers look like something Lou Gehrig might have put up – .368 AVG, 153 R, 57 HR, 170 RBI, 22 SB.  His 17.6 FBHOF points is 5th all time.

He also had 3 more seasons of 40+ HR, 125+ RBI, and a .300+ batting average.  Between 1999 and 2000 he scored almost 300 runs.  He was fast too – stealing at least 30 bases in 1997 & 1999.

Eddie Murray
I almost scratched my scoring system when I saw Murray come out as the 3rd best fantasy first basemen.  After all, he was a ‘compiler’ right?  How could a compiler score so high in a system that rewards peak 5 year value over everything else?

While he was a compiler, he was extraordinarily good at it.  We aren’t talking about a compiler who is routinely 20th best in the league, we’re talking about one was routinely Top 5 at their position.

Murray was fantasy worthy in 17 seasons which brings his overall score up from a solid 21st to a very good 16th.  But, he also hit a ton between 1980 and 1985, routinely finishing among the leaders each year in all fantasy categories except stolen bases.  In his peak years of 1980 and 1983-1985 Murray finished in the Top 10 fifteen times:  twice in AVG, four times in Runs, and five times in both Home runs and RBI.

Finally, let’s take a look at the number of times in their 5-year peak that each of our first basemen finished 1st or 2nd at their position:

5 – Pujols
5 – Bagwell
5 – Murray
4 – Helton
4 – Mattingly
4 – Thomas

Murray also did it twice more, besting all but Pujols who has seven right along with him.

Todd Helton
Don Mattingly
Alright, I have to be palms up about something.  I idolized Don Mattingly growing up, still do in fact.  That said, no funky business was needed to elect him to this Hall of Fame, as he is most certainly deserving.

As with all of the 1980’s players, we have to put Mattingly’s accomplishments in context of the lower offensive era.  One way to do that is to stack him up against an eerily similar player of today’s era – Todd Helton.

The scores are almost identical – Mattingly has a higher peak (he’s one of just 8 batters to have multiple 15+ point seasons), but Helton’s 3rd through 5th best seasons were slightly better thus evening out the scores.  The 7 year view is close as well, and after that, Mattingly suffered a rather quick fall to irrelevancy.

Getting back to era’s, remembering how close the scoring was, take a gander at their actual 5 year peak stats:

Helton    – .349 AVG, 125 R, 37 HR, 123 RBI, 4 SB
Mattingly – .330 AVG,  97 R, 28 HR, 119 RBI, 1 SB

Times sure have changed if these two are on the same footing.

Frank Thomas
Thomas is another case that really challenges the FBHOF scoring system.  Thomas is regarded, within some circles anyway, as the best hitter of his time.  Here is a player that hit .340 or better three times; reached 125 RBI’s four times; and had 7 seasons of 35 or more home runs.  He was simply a monster at the plate.

If this is true, how can he be rated below both Mattingly and Helton?  Two reasons – peak vs. longevity, and the late 90’s.  Whether you like it or not, Thomas simply did not have the peak that either Mattingly or Helton enjoyed.  He was markedly better over a longer period of time, but Mattingly’s two best years were better than any of Thomas’, and Helton had three better years.  If you look at an 8 year stretch instead of a peak-5 year though, Thomas easily bests the two:  94.6 Pts for Thomas vs. 86.0 for Helton and 83.8 for Mattingly.

Fantasy baseball has a “what have you done for me lately” mentality.  Even looking at the best 5 years of player is stretching the limits of how far in advance a fantasy owner thinks.  Even in the most robust of keeper leagues, rarely would a player remain on a single team for 3 years, let alone 5, and this is reflected in how the FBHOF scores.

The late 1990’s also hurt Thomas.  Looking at his statistics subjectively, one might come to the conclusion that 2000 was his best year:  .328 AVG, 115 R, 43 HR, and 143 RBI.  After all, those figures are all career highs with the exception of his batting average, which was great nonetheless.  But in 2000, this wasn’t even good enough to be the best first basemen, let alone the best overall batter.  He finished 3rd among first basemen behind Helton and Bagwell and 14th overall.  His batting average was 19th in the league, Runs were 15th, HR’s were 7th, and RBI 4th.  Of course, his 1 stolen base was also quite low, even for a first basemen.  It was 25th among his peers, and 283rd overall.

As a result of all the above, 2000 isn’t even considered part of his 5 year peak score.  Which brings us back to the first point – he was great for so many years, but never was ‘the best’.  In fact, he and Murray are the only two First Base inductees to never finish a season #1 overall among batters.

This has been a long post, and I’ll spare you some time by just mentioning a few of the near misses:

- Cecil Cooper was closest with 63 FBHOF Points.  Really an underrated player.
- Andres Galarraga had great years in 1988, 1996, and 1997 but was just ‘very good’ the rest of the time.
- Rafael Palmeiro, aka., Eddie Murray Lite.
- Which brings us to Mark McGwire.  Before complaining he’s not in the FBHOF please remember the following:  He hit .300 once.  Scored 100 runs just thrice.  And of course was possibly the slowest player in the game, amassing less than 15 stolen bases throughout his career.  Those facts aren’t kind to fantasy batters.