I swear that box score turning blue to alert people there’s something historic going on is the mother of all jinxes. Not to mention, all the people talking about the perfect game. Member when that was a jinx? Since we’re currently living in the Age of Opinion (which is not the Scorsese movie, though if it gets the green-light, Gary Oldman could play the lead), everyone talks about the perfect game while it’s going on. Whether it’s Twitter, Facebook, Pinterest, LinkedIn, Twitbook, PinkedIn. In my day, we never mentioned a perfect game on Friendster! And on my General Gist band page on Myspace? Nary a whisper! Well, Jake Arrieta still pitched outstanding yesterday — 7 IP, 2 ER, 3 baserunners, 9 Ks, ERA at 2.05 — even if the bid for a perfect game came up short. Like Altuve short. Like Kershaw looks at Arrieta’s perfect game bid and giggles. Still, this is about where Arrieta’s been and where he can go. What I said the other day still remains true — his swings and misses are going up, his control is getting better and he’s using his cutter more — a pitch he can dominant with. I’d still look at him in every league. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Alert the trolls!  Plaster up the bulletins under the bridges!  Because I’m biased.  I hate the Cardinals.  They’re just so good against my Brewers!  And yeah, that’s pretty much all I got… Ummm, also… because McGwire did steroids?!  Yeah that doesn’t work from a Brewers fan… Ummm, because Lance Lynn is a porker and dominates us every time out?  Dammit, Wily Peralta is listed 5 pounds heavier!  I have no rational basis…

And with said caveats, I’ve never been a Jaime Garcia fan.  I actually picked him up in that redonk rookie year in 2010, and sold him mid-season which didn’t really work out.  As he returned from a rash of shoulder injuries plaguing the past few seasons, he was further off my radar than the Red October.  Can you believe he’s never had a WHIP under 1.30 in ANY Major League season?  And that includes only 9 starts last year and 10 appearances in 2008.  Then after seriously considering him for my top 100 SP ranks last week, he got rocked at KC Tuesday.  But followed it up with a gem yesterday at Toronto!  What is going on here?!  I feel like I’m taking crazy pills!  So I decided to break down Sunday’s start and re-address my ill-conceived biases – and Garcia – for this week’s re-ranks:

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There was a strange time in history that some may not be aware of. It was a time when Fergie wasn’t a household name and giving her fans dreams of golden showers. It was a time they were all about having a live backing band instead of sampled beats. It was a time when they were earning critical acclaim for what I’ll biasedly – which IS a word, autocorrect; check yo’self! – say was good music. Well, at least in comparison to what everyone thinks of them as now. And then things changed. Is it irony or coincidence they became a household name with a song titled ‘Let’s Get Retarded’? I don’t know, Alanis has effed me up forever on that word. I’ll hand it off to you, dear reader, to discern for me that debate. But back to what we came to talk about…wait, all we’ve talked about is Black Eyed Peas. Hrm…que awkward segue! Well, maybe Erik Bedard has a similar career arc. Drift back with me to 2005-2006 and you had what seemed like an ace in the making. Then 2007 happened and he dropped a beautiful endline: 182 IP, 3.16 ERA, 10.93 K/9 and move to a pitcher friendly park in Safeco as 2008 destination. Everything was pointing up for Bedard’s career. And then injuries and ineptitude hit. The most innings he’s pitched in a season since 2007 is 151 with the Astros last year and I wouldn’t call many of them successful. Fast forward to the now and his season stat line still looks like a mess but there’s some underlying hope for him being useful as he turned in a 3.00 ERA in May. Given the right matchup, you could dare say Erik will having you wanting to Pump It (LOUDER!) and I’ll say the Mariners are just that. The Mariners sport the 5th worst team wOBA against left handed pitching on the year which should be no surprise considering like 90% of the lineup is left-handed. Given he’s the 5th cheapest pitcher on DraftKings today at $6,100, buying in will give you plenty of room to roster an ace like Yu Darvish without breaking your bat bank. And before you say ‘bish u cray’ about this call, the DFSBot is on board, calling him the 10th best pitcher to go today and the 3rd best money differential play with a positive value of 2412 over his going price. But enough about getting Bedard’ed, let’s move on. Here are some more Razzball picks for June 6th…oops, before I go just wanted to let you know I’ll be driving myself to the oblivion that is a family reunion on the Mrs. side so J-FOH has lovingly said he’ll caddy the questions for today. Be nice to him. I don’t wanna come back to find out you were all terrors in the comments section. Now moving on…

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Earlier this week, I played guarantee fairy by marking guys likely to rebound or drop-off based on their BABIP differentials (actual vs. expected). Justin Morneau was a red flag because his expected BABIP is 34+ points lower than his actual BABIP, however this is the case for other Rockies, Brandon Barnes and Troy Tulowitzki even more-so. Charlie Blackmon and Nolan Arenado are just behind Morneau as well. What I’m saying is that it’s a generalizable (Colorado) effect, and isn’t too much of a concern in Morneau’s case. The lineup stack probably exacerbates the effect as well.

On the other hand, while Prince Fielder is likely to rebound based on expected BABIP, the ground ball increase and hitting into the defensive shift is really hurting him, meaning I think his issues will somewhat sustain all year.

For this post (using this same matrix), let’s look at some MLB catchers and corner infielders to replace Matt Wieters and Brandon Belt long-term, and who should rebound at least from an expected BABIP perspective (<10% ownership on ESPN as of 5/12). Here is how I have them ranked:

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I’m going to take a different approach to this week’s Deep Impact post and talk about my up-to-this-point woulda-coulda-shoulda team, and point out the surprises with whom I think will have a sustainable, deep into-the-season impact. I’m omitting the non-surprises i.e. Adam Wainwright, Felix Hernandez, and Jose Fernandez who are naturally in the top-20 so long as they stay healthy.

Here are thine options (within the top-100) to date with their ESPN Player Rater rankings in parenthesis as of Friday, 4/25:

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My fantasy roster is like Rick and his Walking Dead gang, just waiting around to be fattened up for the slaughter in that train car. Doesn’t Daryl have a hidden crossbow? Feel free to kill off Beth though. Currently my team has lost Cole Hamels and David Robertson. Not too bad, but couple that with the injuries to Adrian Beltre, Andrew McCutchen and Yasiel Puig, and my team is on the verge of doing a Hershel. I feel like we should cue up that cheesy music they play at the Oscars when they pay tribute to those stars that died over the past year. Last week, the fantasy world lost Josh Hamilton (smattering of applause), Matt Moore (gasps) and Avisail Garcia (men openly weeping). Just bury them with all the other guys still on the DL – Clayton Kershaw (at least he’s throwing again), Matt Latos (skipping rehab start this week, uh-oh) and Jose Reyes (was born on the disabled list). Add Troy Tulowitzki (quad), Adrian Beltre (quad), Koji Uehara (shoulder quad), and Joe Nathan (dead arm quad) to the walking wounded list as well (guys hurtin’ but not DL’d) and we have a World War Z-sized fantasy apocalypse. Injuries are expected every year, but does it seem like there are more this season? Can I blame instant replay? Harold Reynolds? Someone or something is responsible. Quick, get Bartolo Colon to throw some stem cells in the Gatorade. I hear that helps. *note to self: Pitch embryonic energy drink to Gatorade, make millions, get killed by pro-life crusaders.* It’s time to bring in the fantasy reinforcements. Let’s scour the waiver wire for players owned 50% or less in most leagues and see if we can cure what’s ailing our battered and broken roster. It’s time to jam it or cram it.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Make sure you check out Scott Evans’ Prospect ETA’s for a sense of potential high impact call-ups. I’m going to focus on prospects and MLB sleepers beyond the obvious list of prospects. If I list a prospect, that said prospect should have the opportunity to make an impact this year, and in my opinion, have the minor league numbers/skill to translate well enough.

My ‘translate’ for fantasy purposes is simple: do they make enough contact (how often they put the ball in play); what is their approach to putting the ball in play (balls in play mix i.e. linedrives, flyballs, groundballs, HR/FB, infield flyballs, etc.); and what power/speed potential do they have from a fantasy counting stats perspective. Speed won’t have much of a weight in this post though.

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The hardest division in the league, which includes last year’s world champs, looks to be just as intense again.  For that matter, it probably will be that way for the foreseeable future.  My favorite team is also being covered here.  I’ll do my best not to be biased about the Yankees, and I think I’m pretty good at keeping my emotions away from the reality of the team.  That being said, I think the Yankees are going to win 120 games this season. (You can check out the NL West Spring Training Preview here, the AL West Spring Training Preview here, the AL Central Spring Training Preview here and the NL East Spring Training Preview here.)

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After Pablo Sandoval hit three homers in a World Series game last year, he sat down with Reggie Jackson for a conversation in December. Reggie wanted to know what the experience was like for him and to tell him his own. By the end of the conversation, Pablo was near tears, he whispered to Reggie, barely able to get the words out, “The fans threw candy bars onto the field?” Pablo Sandoval’s like the condensed milk version of Jay Bruce. It’s not really milk, but it’s real sweet and kinda tastes like milk and frosting and it gets crazy hot for one game a year. Jesus, Pablo (no relation to Jesus Guzman), if I would’ve known all it took to get you hot was to say you’re droppable, I would’ve done it in April. He still cost a lot of people their fantasy seasons, and is probably on a lot of teams that are out of the race, but, if you have him, you gotta hope this is the start of something. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Please, blog, may I have some more?

All strikeouts aren’t created equal, apparently. Holy Samardballs, are you kidding me? It was a short schedule day. There’s no middle relief disinfectant for this feces you sprayed all over my team. Why do you hurt me, Jeff Samardzija? Did I not show you enough preseason love? Did my March cuddles not warm your cockles? Did the hype get to your head? Are you better suited for football? Are you a great Scrabble word in search of a pitching repertoire? What the effin’ eff are you doing to my ratios? I GOT QUESTIONS, Y’ALL! Yesterday, his line was 3 1/3 IP, 9 ER and today he’s dropped to waivers. You can’t hold a guy who’s as explosive as bad Mexican food. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Please, blog, may I have some more?