Fantasy Baseball Advice

Even if you draft one or two outfielders in the top 100 (which you should), you’ll still need to identify some late bargains.   The top 20, 40, 60 and 80 outfielders for 2010 fantasy baseball can be found under the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings.  This is by no means all the outfielders I’d draft for one of my teams.  This is a list of guys that will go late and could provide some healthy returns.  Where applicable, click on the player’s name to read more about them and to see their 2010 projections.  Anyway, here’s some outfielders to target for 2010 fantasy baseball:

Jay Bruce – Bruce is actually a good case study for someone who wants to see how long it takes a player to go from being a hyped rookie to actually producing.  Bruce burst on the scene in 2008, then bust on the scene in 2009 and now can actually start producing.

Nolan Reimold – If Reimold takes the Bruce route, it might not be until 2011 for Reimold.  But, like the secret Secret Recipe, Reimold has more seasoning.  (I’m a fried chicken conspiracy nut!)

Corey Hart – Hart isn’t a slam dunk by any stretch, but, if he can stay healthy, he’s a good bet for 20/20.

Dexter Fowler - I’m going to ignore that Baseball Prospectus’s most comparable player for Fowler is Paul Householder because even before the subprime mortgage crisis let Paul down, he was not a household name.  (See what I did there?  That shizz was like butterflies in your ears!)  Here’s my limb:  in 2011, Dexter’s going to be a top 20 outfielder.

Colby Rasmus – Rasmus ties together any outfield you’ve drafted like a Tony LaRussa scarf ties together a fur coat and a polyester shirt.

Travis Snider – Cheap homers late with the chance for cheap lots of homers.  And he has the same neck as this guy.

Jason Heyward – Caveats:  rookies usually crash and burn; it’s probably a year too early for Heyward.  Caveats aside, my man can hit!  Ride that donkey-donkey!

Austin Jackson – If his name were Joe Smith, no one would know who he was.  He has a shot to be the leadoff hitter and every day player.  Jordan Schafer had that shot last year for the Braves, too.  Doesn’t mean everything, but Jackson’s worth the flier.

Kyle Blanks – As long as the Padres don’t fly Southwest Airlines, Blanks should near 30 homers.

Julio Borbon – I know saying this is kinda like yelling fire in a crowded theater, but I think Borbon is Ellsbury 20 rounds later.  Zoinks!

Brett Gardner – Rudy has Gardner at 75/4/38/.266/36 in 440 ABs.  He concedes that he thinks the ABs might be bullish and the average could be worse.  The runs also seem like they’re on the high side in that projection.  But notice one stat we’re not tempering — steals.  (“No Tempering” sounds like an unreleased TLC song.)  Gardner’s a $4 player with $21 of it in stolen base value.  As in, he’d be worth -$17 in a mixed, 12 team leagues if he had no speed.

Cameron Maybin – If he can get healthy, he might get into the two hole.  That always worked for Tom Cruise.

Okay, who put Jerry Blevins 498th?  He’s the greatest LOOGY of all-time… OF ALL-TIME.  Kanye shrug.  We’re using Yahoo for our Fantasy Razzball leagues. (You can win a mother-bleepin’ hot tub; are you kidding me?  Seriously.  Yes, I brought out the one word, “Seriously,” sentence, then brought out the expository sentence to mention I brought out the one word, “Seriously,” sentence.) Yahoo’s drafting and fantasy baseball team setup-ma-whosies is fine.  ESPN has its minuses, Yahoo has its pluses, then read that again in the mirror.  And just like there were problems with ESPN’s fantasy baseball rankings, I have issues with Yahoo’s.  I can’t go over every single difference of opinion, but you could just go to my 2010 fantasy baseball top 300 and use that.  Or go to the Point Shares and use that.  Or buy me an all-exclusive trip to Dubai and I’ll draft for you while skiing in a mall.  Sheik, if you want to go to the food court, may I suggest the ski lift?  That sounds splendid, I hope they have Chik-Fil-A. Anyway, here’s some huge differences in Yahoo’s fantasy baseball rankings compared to mine:

Troy Tulowitzki - 7 at Yahoo, 16 here.  Hey, I like Tulo just as much as the next man, but obviously not if that next man works at Yahoo.  As I’ve said many times before, Tulo’s career high in steals last year was nearly triple his previous career high, including the minors.  And he doesn’t start hitting until June.

Joe Mauer – 8 at Yahoo, 28 here.  I already dropped a Joe Mauer schmohawk bomb.

Justin Upton – 18 at Yahoo, 24 here.  I do enjoy J-Upside, but him at 18 and above Holliday?  Holliday was more valuable than Upton last year, and the year before and the year before and you get it.  No reason to think it suddenly stops this year for Holliday.  In the 2nd round, I want as close to a lock that I can get.  Sorry, Yahoo, now get your shinebox!

Ichiro Suzuki – 27 at Yahoo, 43 here.  I’ve been over his overratedness so much I’m beginning to think overratedness is a word.

Pablo Sandoval – 29 at Yahoo, 58 here.  Here’s what Grey (that’s me!) said about Sandoval, “It’s hard to not like a chubby guy who goes by the nickname, Kung Fu Panda.  Who doesn’t love pandas?  It’s unpatriotic (in China).  I love pandas so much I want a freakin’ panda dog.  If I had a kid, I’m dye the kid to look like a panda.  So, I do like Pablo Sandoval.  But there’s caveats.  He’s not really a home run hitter.  It would not shock me to see him hit 22 homers in 2010.  Also, his average last year looks to be on the high side.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see a .300 average instead of .330.  I like him, just be careful what you’re expecting.”  And that’s me quoting me!

Aramis Ramirez – 47 at Yahoo, 94 here.  Aramis overrated, underlined it.

Yovani Gallardo – 58 at Yahoo, 107 here.  That makes my job passing on him so much easier.

Michael Young – 64 at Yahoo, 93 here.  Young is a nice complimentary pick if you have a few low average guys, but, in a vacuum, Young bores.

Carlos Quentin – 164 at Yahoo, 54 here.  There’s a Carlos Quentin sleeper post and I have him over a 100 spots before in my rankings.  You think I might end up owning Quentin on a few teams?  Rhetorical!  Now remember what I said in the rankings companion piece.  Draft Quentin before someone else does, but that doesn’t mean wa³y before.

Geovany Soto – 172 at Yahoo, 127 here.  I wrote the Geovany Soto sleeper post for a reason.  Recognize!  Or don’t, your choice.

Dexter Fowler – 290 at Yahoo, 151 here.  My Fowler sleeper post was written in September.  Prescient ain’t just a word I can’t spell without Dictionary.com, it’s a state of mind!

We at Razzball realize that exporting our views across the country has damaging consequences on the blogosphere. To help make amends, we are reaching out to leading team blogs and featuring their locally blogged answers to pressing 2010 fantasy baseball questions regarding their team. We feel this approach will be fresher, more sustainable, and require less energy consumption (for us anyway). The 2010 Rockies Fantasy Baseball Preview comes courtesy of Purple Row.

1) I really liked Chris Iannetta’s promise for 2010 going into November, then Olivo happened.  What kind of ABs do you see Iannetta now getting?  What kind of numbers?

Despite little statements here and there in the traditional media about Spring Training determining the amount of playing time for both catchers, it’s hard to see how Olivo will overcome Iannetta. Olivo hits for more power, but he also takes hacks at pitches that hit the ground in front of home plate. Iannetta knows how to get on base, and bringing up his low batting average in 2009 is not the way to start an argument on who should be the Rockies’ starting catcher. With a bit more normal BABIP, Iannetta’s average will rise to the .250-.260 range. A season similar to his 2008 campaign (.264/.390/.505) would cement his place as the Rockies’ starter well into the future.

2) The Rockies are a dream team of upside for fantasy baseball.  Besides Iannetta, there’s Eric Young Jr., Dexter Fowler and Carlos Gonzalez.  The problem with lots of upside is usually managers just want producers in there — Barmes, Spilborghs, Smith, etc.  Will Young get 400 ABs without a 80 pound slab of deer meat falling from the sky onto Barmes?  Will Fowler and CarGo get 500 ABs each?  What kind of numbers do you see for these three in 2010? (Note: This question was asked before the Rockies announced Young would probably start the year in the minors.)

It’ll be hard for EY Jr. to gain that much playing time with Spilborghs and Smith able to backup the outfield corners and Barmes the starting second baseman. He’ll also receive a bit of a test from utility man Ryan Freel in Spring Training. And if the Rockies still have interest in Fernando Tatis, EY Jr. may find himself in the minors.

Fowler and CarGo are the starters in center and left, so 500 ABs for each isn’t out of the question. CarGo seems to be further along at this point with a strong final two months of the season. If you’re looking for stolen bases, Fowler should be a good flier (though he’ll also have a high number of CS), and you may just be surprised with what else he puts up.

3) I’ve got Rocky Mountain high-apple-pie-in-the-sky hopes for Ian Stewart. Tell me my meds haven’t got me thinking all crazy again.

Your meds haven’t messed with your thinking. . . well, not that much. Stewart’s going to be the starting third baseman without any competition since Garrett Atkins is plying his trade with the Orioles now. It’d be nice to see Stew strike out less and bring up his low line drive percentage (14.1%) in order to use that potential we’ve seen since he was drafted in 2003.

4)  Jorge de la Rosa’s FIP was 3.91 while he rocked a 4.38 ERA, so something was amiss.  Looks like it might be his strand rate, but his free passes sure don’t help.  His Ks are tantalizing for fantasy, but he also looks very risky.  What do you see for him in 2010?

I see a more confident De La Rosa taking the mound with numbers around the same as his 2009 ones. He’s going to be relied on heavily with Ubaldo Jimenez and Aaron Cook at the front of the rotation and Jeff Francis returning from a lost 2009 season.

5) Denver is home to hundreds of microbreweries, but what’s your favorite Rockies-themed beer?  A) Franklin Mor-Ales A) Helton’s Jesus Lager C) Stale Hawpes

Franklin Mor-Ales, because we still expect more from him, either out of the bullpen or in the rotation.

With more outfielders than G-Unit feuds, we take it to the top 60 outfielders for 2010 fantasy baseball.  These guys may seem like they’re not worth the effort, but remember last year Adam Jones, Nelson Cruz and Justin Upton were found here.  As with the other 2010 fantasy baseball rankings, where tiers start and stop are mentioned and my projections.  Anyway, here’s the top 60 outfielders for 2010 fantasy baseball:

41. Michael Cuddyer – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here to Kubel.  I call this tier, “Yawnstipating power outfielders.”  Cuddyer probably could’ve/should’ve/Elliott Gould’ve ranked higher than this, but I think he had a career year that won’t be repeated.  A career year that I went over in the top 20 1st basemen for 2010 fantasy baseball, where you’ll also find his projections.

42. Brad Hawpe – Maybe it’s just me but Brad Hawpe screams a platoon player to me.  A platoon player that only plays the 1st half of the year? Ah, cute, random italicized voice.  No, he shouldn’t play vs. lefties.  Also, watch out if he’s shipped out of Coors.  (An idea that has me foaming at the mouth.  Well, that and my Diet Coke and Mentos diet.)  2010 Projections:  70/25/85/.280

43. Jason Kubel – I liked Kubel going into 2009.  He’s more or less the same this year, but the only difference is how people are perceiving him.  Kubel had value when he was a last round draft pick.  There’s no value when you have to draft him like he’s actually going to stay on your team.  Trust me, he won’t.  2010 Projections:  70/25/85/.285

44. Vernon Wells – He had wrist surgery in November.  Blech.  I’m really only ranking him because I don’t want people to ask me if I forgot him.  I didn’t, but you should.  2010 Projections:  65/17/75/.265/10

45. Corey Hart – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here to Snider.  I call this tier, “Back into outfielders that I would draft.”  Hart will be 28 in March and 2009 was a lost season; he battled injuries for almost two months.  His declining HR/FB is cause for some alarm, so he doesn’t come without risk.  But when you’re choosing between Kubel or Wells or Hart, I trust you’ll make the right choice.  2010 Projections:  75/20/80/.260/17

46. Dexter Fowler – I went over my Fowler fantasy already.  2010 Projections:  85/10/55/.285/35

47. Colby Rasmus – I went over him in a Colby Rasmus sleeper post.  2010 Projections:  85/17/65/.265/14

48. Travis Snider – I’m randy on Travis.  As long as the Blue Jays don’t Kemp him all season and move him up the order then he could be in for a huge breakout.  There was also a Travis Snider sleeper post.  2010 Projections:  70/27/85/.265/3

49. Drew Stubbs – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here to Brantley.  I call this tier, “Upside speed picks to make Ron LeFlore proud.”  I’ll like Stubbs more when he definitely has the job in center.  Though, even with the job, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him lose time to other outfielders, especially if Taveras is still there.  Stubbs also has a problem with Ks.  2010 Projections:  80/7/50/.255/35

50. Michael Brantley – It’s the Riverdance guy!  This ranking is really contingent on playing time and the speed he offers.  Don’t expect much else.  2010 Projections: 55/5/65/.275/30

51. Elijah Dukes – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here to The Big FraGu.  I call this tier, “Your back’s against the wall and you really need upside.” Last year was the first time in his career that Dukes didn’t have any trouble with the law.  He also didn’t hit.  Let’s hope in 2010 he catches manslaughter charges and hits 25 homers.  2010 Projections:  75/17/80/.270/15 <– optimistic but whatever

52. Chase Headley - I like him way better at 3rd base.  In fact, I already went over him there at the top 20 3rd basemen for 2010 fantasy baseball post.

53. Chris Coghlan – Looking at Coghlan’s numbers, he looks like a cheap Denard Dawg.  That’s neither a compliment nor an insult.  To put that in overused slang terms, it is what it is.  Coghlan just needs to show more of that speed he showed in the minors.  Would I want Coghlan in my outfield?  Not unless I had a lot of speed and power on my team and felt I needed average and Runs.  2010 Projections:  100/10/55/.310/15

54. Franklin Gutierrez – The Big FraGu probably gets more pub on Razzball than he should because of his most excellent nickname.  His ceiling is what he did last year, but he could do it again.  2010 Projections:  60/15/75/.270/13

55. Carlos Guillen – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here to Mags.  I call this tier, “Old guys with no upside.”  Listen — or read as the case probably is — a lot of these guys will probably outperform some of the guys above, but that doesn’t mean I’d necessarily want them on all teams.  I tend to go for steady performers in the early slots of the draft, then I take fliers later on.  But if you have an outfield of, say, Justin Upton and Adam Jones, I could see taking Carlos Guillen to balance upside with stability.  As for Guillen, he was injury-prone when he was young.  Now he’s 35 years old.  Oy.  2010 Projections:  75/15/70/.285/6

56. Ryan Ludwick – Wait, wasn’t Ludwick in a promising tier last year? Yeah, and now he’s  in an over-the-hill one.  2010 Projections:  60/24/85/.270/3

57. J.D. Drew – He’s actually stayed relatively healthy recently and the numbers have been pretty yawnstipating.  Hopefully, his brother, Stephen, can step it up Michael Voltaggio-style and help Mother Drew choose a favorite.  2010 Projections:  75/20/85/.275

58. Milton Bradley – He has the inverse Elijah Dukes thing going on.  When he’s good, he’s good, when he’s bad, he’s so bad.  (<–That would mean the exact opposite if you were to hear it in an R&B song.)  2010 Projections:  65/16/70/.280/5

59. Mike Cameron – Went over Mike Cameron for fantasy when he was signed by the Sawx.  2010 Projections:  70/20/85/.245/14

60. Magglio Ordonez – You can pretty much tell how stodgy a fantasy baseball site is by where they rank Magglio.  CBS has him 49th.  Barring his insane BABIP year of ‘07, he hasn’t really been great since 2002 and now has been below average and down right bad the last two years, respectively.  He’s AARP Mags.  2010 Projections:  75/15/95/.310

Dexter Fowler had a .394 OBP in almost 1300 minor league at-bats.  In his first big league season, he has a .371 OBP (through whenever I wrote this).  I’m focusing on OBP  because you’d like to have your speedsters on base… *cough* Taveras *cough*   Is Fowler capable of 50+ steals?  I suppose, but I wouldn’t count on that.  No Sir Ree Bob.  (BTW, I like the Urban Dictionary examples for No Sir Ree Bob.  I don’t remember that conversation happening between the Iraqi Information Minister and George W. Bush, but I don’t pay too much attention to politics.)  I’d optimistically predict 35+ steals, 10+ homers and a .285 average.  Shane Victorino called, he wants his stats back, but Andrew McCutchen picked up the phone to say Dexter was in the shower.  I have no idea what’s going on there.  Now, Victorino is a top twenty outfielder, so that’s Fowler’s upside.  For the price you can probably keep Dexter, it makes him well worth the risk.  I’m not saying keep him over Miguel Cabrera.  Please, we’re talking within reason.  Anyway, here’s some more fantasy baseball keepers for 2010:

Kendry Morales – This year he’s been nearly as valuable as Mark Teixeira.  Zoinks!

Eric Young Jr. – We started this sucker with a Rockie and, Harang nabbit, we’re gonna finish it with one. So Junior’s not really getting any playing time right now, but this isn’t about this year, is it? Rhetorical! 2010 should be Young’s year to shine and when he shines he’ll be doing it with 40+ steals. For a guy that you can probably keep on the super cheap in deep leagues, that’s a lovely thing. Not a Lovey thing, that’s J.P. Howell’s Mom.