Fantasy Baseball Advice

Bryce Harper and Mike Trout were called up by their respective clubs this weekend.  When Bryce left Syracuse for his first major league game, the grand opening of the “Eye Black Isn’t Just For The Ultimate Warrior And Owls” store turned into a Going Out of Business sale.  When Mike Trout left Salt Lake for the Angels, Bobby Abreu’s three year Going Out of Business sale came to an abrupt end.  Bobby, “I still have some seven-pitch walks to sell!”  With Trout and Harper called up, the minor leagues were closed.   There’s no more minor leagues.  In his major league debut, Harper looked like all that and a bag of douche.  Who over the age of twelve flips their helmet off when they’re running?  Wait, is he over the age of twelve?  Definitely more auspicious of a debut than Trout’s (or is that inauspicious?).  (NSFWUYWAAPPH (Not Safe For Work Unless You Work At A Porn Production House):  In case you didn’t see it, Harper roped a double to deep center while someone behind home plate dropped their pants.  (Here’s Bryce Harper’s first major league hit in motion.)  I can’t wait to go to Cooperstown in 25 years and see Bryce Harper’s 1st major league hit.   The curator showing a group of middle school kids, “Here’s the film of Babe Ruth calling his shot and here’s Bryce Harper with a booty call.”  In 50 years, Bryce Harper showing his granddaughter, “There’s your PawPaw getting his first major league hit.”  “PawPaw, are you the one with your ass showing?”  “No, sweetheart, that’s how fans celebrated baseball players when I played.  A great time to be alive.”)  Mike Trout, nor the fans behind him, flashed anything.  Whatevs, I like him better for this year.   I went over my Mike Trout fantasy back in November and it mostly still applies.  Only thing I’d change is how many ABs I gave him there.  There I gave him 55/7/30/.270/20 in 300 ABs.  Give him 400 ABs and his stats move to 70/10/40/.275/25.  Basically what you were hoping to get from Bourjos.  That’s giddy up, the un-sarcastic  excitement.  As for Bryce Harper, I like him a lot and he’s worth grabbing.  But he’s also worth trading if you can in redraft leagues.  He hasn’t really pounded minor league pitching since last July.  There were guys on his own minor league roster that were out-performing him.  He’s going to be a great one; I’ll give him that.  I just don’t think once Morse and/or Zimmerman return he’s even going to stay in the majors.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw this weekend in fantasy baseball:

Scott Downs – The Sciosciapath replaced Walden after one blown save.  If only he was as reactionary with over 35-year-old outfielders.  Here’s a scenario:  Downs gets five straight saves and Walden scuffles in a set-up role because his confidence is fractured after being removed from the closer role that quickly.  In that scenario, Downs stays the closer for a few months, maybe the rest of the season.  Another scenario:  Downs blows a game and Walden’s back in there after a week.  More succinctly, you need to hold both guys.  Even more succinctly, hold both.  Personally, I don’t think Sciosciapath’s move is a long-term cure for Scott Downs’ Syndrome.

Peter Bourjos – Didn’t play for the Angels yesterday because of Mike Trout.  Bourjos also didn’t play on my fantasy team, because I cut him immediately when I saw he was losing time to Trout.  Later, schmohawk!  Thanks for the month of the .167 average and 1 homer and 1 steal!   Wish I would’ve known your last name was French for “Bore the crap of youse.”

Albert Pujols – For the first time in his career, Pujols is one day away from having his first homerless month.  Like how Roger Maris’s family followed around McGwire in ’98, Juan Pierre’s family will be following around Pujols.

Kyle Lohse – 6 IP, 3 ER, 10 baserunners, 5 Ks.  Easily his worst start of the year.  Uh-oh, Mr. April may be done.  Hehe.  That’s punny!

Josh Hamilton – Left yesterday’s game with a stiff back, which is less embarrassing than a stiff front.

Tim Hudson – 5 IP, 2 ER, 8 baserunners, 6 Ks vs. the Pirates.  Not a tough matchup, but I wouldn’t mind Hudson as a 5th fantasy starter on a team.  He usually keeps his ratios in check and does decent with Ks — or simply oK.

Jay Bruce – 4 homers in 4 straight games with yesterday’s being a slam & legs.  BRUUUUUUU + UUUUUUUUUUU + UUUUUUUUUUU = Excitement for Red Square.  Damn, was supposed to equal excitement for Reds outfielder, Jay Bruce.  Think I forgot to carry a U.

Mat Latos – 6 1/3 IP, 5 ER, 10 baserunners (0 Walks), 4 Ks vs. the Asstros.  Latos seems like a guy who asks you at the bar, “Did you say something to me?” like he’s picking a fight even if you didn’t say anything to him.  Not much to like about his ERA so far either (5.97).  I still want to remain patient with him.  He will get better.

Drew Smyly – 6 IP, 1 ER, 4 baserunners, 7 Ks vs. the Yankees.  The Emoticon just had a most impressive start on Saturday and has his ERA down for the count of 1.23.  Last week when I said to grab him, it was a bit of a “What the hey, pick him up” waiver wire acquisition.  Now, it’s more of a “What the hey, seriously, pick him up.”  His LOB% is a bit of an eephus that’s about to get smacked, but his K-rate should prevent him from falling too hard.

David Phelps – Will take over for Freddy Garcia in the rotation.  A terrible starter being replaced by a middling middle reliever.  Phelps looks like he might have a 4-ish ERA and a 7-ish K-rate.  Wouldn’t even be news if it was for any team other than the Yankees.  Maybe the Yankees can exact some revenge and trade David Phelps to the Mariners for the rights to Jay Buhner Jr.

Robinson Cano – Batting third for the Yankees for the first month and has 4 RBIs.  Chris Davis got 4 RBIs on Saturday.  The number nine hitter for the Orioles, Andino, has 6 RBIs.  I will now put on a gorilla suit and mail myself to Africa.

Anibal Sanchez – 7 IP, 2 ER, 7 baserunners, 14 Ks.  I heard Justin Bieber’s Boyfriend song on the radio, and I immediately thought of Anibal.  No lie.  It’s not gay since his name’s Anibal.  It’s gay that I was listening to Bieber.

Giancarlo Stanton – 1-for-4 with his 1st home run.  Is it bad I actually had to look at three different sites to make sure I was seeing right that he hit a home run?  Yeah, probably.  Now hit nine more tomorrow and we’ll be so cool again.  I’ll even massage your sore knee with my tongue.  What, it’s the strongest muscle!

Josh Johnson – 5 1/3IP, 5 ER.  Obviously got tired of that reputation that he could only pitch well when he was healthy.

Hanley Ramirez – 0-for-3; Jose Reyes – 0-for-3, as they both bat .205 on the year.  Maybe move both of them to 2nd base and let Omar Infante play shortstop and 3rd base.  I’m thinking of creative solutions; don’t kill the messenger.

Max Scherzer – 4 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 3 Ks… Why was he pulled so early?  Oh, 14 baserunners in less than 5 innings.  Wow.  It’s nearly mathematical impossible to have 14 baserunners, only record 14 outs and only allow 3 earned runs.  I hate to give up on him and drop him to waivers, but I’d want to see at least one good start on my bench before starting him in any league.

Matt Thornton – Got the save yesterday.  My over/under for Santiago losing the job was the end of April.  Not too shabby.  Yeah, I do think Thornton takes over, at least that’s what I’ve been writing on this site that you are reading, but as of right now Ventura is still saying Santiago’s the closer.  We shall see.  Or not!  Your choice.

Gavin Floyd – 6 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 4 baserunners, 9 Ks as he took a no hitter into the 7th vs. the Red Sox.  But the Red Sox have Nick Punto, Marlon Byrd, Ryan Sweeney, Mike Aviles, Cody Ross and Kelly Shoppach in their lineup!  Somehow the Red Sox have been able to bamboozle fantasy owners into thinking they’re good, even though Sweeney, Aviles, Shoppach, Byrd, Ross and Punto are all guys coming from other teams where they were marginal starters.  Right now, the Red Sox lineup looks like cemetery of fallen fantasy value.

Jake Peavy – 9 IP, 1 ER, 5 baserunners, 7 Ks.  If you Google “resurgence,” you’re going to find five articles about Jake Peavy and five about al-Qaeda.  Of those ten articles, 2 mention selling Peavy, 3 mention buying him and 10 mention injuries.

Edwin Encarnacion – Three games in a row with a homer and capped this three-peat (trademark Pat Riley) with a slam & legs yesterday.  I’m really happy for all his owners.  I’m not bitter at all.  I’ll probably get Edwin’s as-of-right-now stats (7 homers, 4 steals) from Ryan Zimmerman by August.  The RZ:  Brand new from Toyota.  Flashy exterior and tons of hype, then, as soon as you drive it off the lot, you regret the purchase and it breaks down for 5 months.

Jose Bautista – 1-for-4 with his 2nd steal as he sits on 3 homers for the year while Omar Infante struts around like Buddy Love.

Kenley Jansen – Got two saves this weekend.  Mattingly’s saying some shizz about Guerra needing a rest.  I’ll say Mattingly needs to give that a rest.  Mattingly seems like the type that can’t admit he was wrong (or so says his Rip Torn-ish looking, mugshot-taking ex-wife), so he may pull one of these deals where he never says Jansen is now the closer, but Jansen just starts getting saves until it’s obvious he’s the closer.

Chris Capuano – 6 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 5 baserunners, 9 Ks.  What’s this the longest post ever?  Maronna mia!  Yeah, I’d pick up Capuano.  Solid Ks in a good pitchers’ park.

Wade Miley – 6 1/3 IP, 0 ER, 3 baserunners, 6 Ks.  He’s pitching above his head right now.  Well, he’s not a sidearmer.  Cute, Random Italicized Voice.  I mean, he can’t keep this up.  That’s what she said!  What?  Miley has NL-Only appeal for now, but I’d be careful in mixed leagues.

Gerardo Parra – 2-for-3 with a steal.  You know who Parra is playing like right now?  A guy that is getting a chance to play and wants to prove himself, i.e., he’s building a wall of stats to fend off any other Diamondback options, a *pinkie to mouth* Parra-pet.

Patrick Corbin – He was the pitcher the Diamondbacks called up for Monday’s start, relegating Collmenter to shoveling crap out of the bullpen.  “Hey, Shaw, will you stop pooping on the bullpen mound?”  “Why, we got Collmenter now.”  That was overheard in the D-Backs bullpen this weekend.  Corbin had a solid K/BB and could surprise some major league hitters.  The downside is he’s 15 years old (22) and probably is just a placeholder for Bauer or Skaggs.  BTW, Bauer and Skaggs opened for Big & Rich.  Their big song, “Save a Morse, Ride a LaRoche.”

Dexter Fowler – At four homers, he has 2 more homers than steals.  Fowler also weighs the same as one of Stanton’s thighs.  Cust killin’ myself.

Frank Francisco – Blew the save yesterday as the closepocalypse sweeps through the Mets.  Jesse Orsoco’s house fell on top of Frank Francisco’s legs and Ram-Ram got the save.  I don’t think a change of closer is imminent here, but that’s more because the Mets’ other options haven’t been great and my brain can only compute 17 closer changes per roundup.  Overload!  Overload!  Red alert!  Let me off the closerousel!

Tim Lincecum – 8 IP, 0 ER, 7 baserunners, 5 Ks cutting his ERA to about half what it was two weeks ago.  Sure, this game was against the Padres, who had one good hitter coming into this year and he’s now batting under .200 and in the 7th hole and his name rhymes with Maynotbeasgoodasyouthoughtbin, but I’m guessing it’s too late to buy low on Lincecum.

Wilson Betemit – 1-for-4 with his 2nd homer in his last three games as he played third and made Reynolds’ excuse, “It’s not me, it’s 3rd base,” look bad.

Matt Garza – 7 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hit, 1 Walk, 10 Ks.  You can’t spell Garza without Rza, so you know he got The W with no help from Ol’ Dirty Barney.

Grant Balfour – 0 IP, 3 ER and his 2nd blown save, Matt Capps just gives up runs for S’s and G’s and, while they might not be in the same team, Carlos Marmol seems to be picking up whatever it is that Collmenter is shoveling.  I don’t think any of them are in serious danger of losing their closer jobs (this week).  All three teams are going nowhere fast and they’d be better served to get to the trading deadline with a closer to trade.

Brandon Inge – About to sign with the A’s.  That’ll fix the A’s!  Goodbye, cellar!  There’s gotta be a Moneyball sequel with the little white kid from The Blind Side playing Inge and Don Swayze playing Billy Beane.

Bartolo Colon – 8 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 8 baserunners, 5 Ks.  Remarkable turnaround of his career continues since his fat and bone marrow stem cell surgery.  At what point does Bartolo Colon surgery become as prevalent as Tommy John surgery?  It doesn’t seem like you need an injury to get the surgery either.  Get the surgery and you’re just good.  The doctor who did the surgery is out of Boca Raton, the old Jew shuffleboard capital of the world.  Soon we’re gonna have Ira Shlomowitz and Harvey Edelbaum, once legendary mah-jong players, throwing 95 MPH, and asking the home plate ump if they can go to their mouth, not because it’s cold, but because they need to adjust their dentures.  Having their choice of teams to sign with, Ira says, “I think I’m gonna pitch for the Mariners.  Seattle has great herring.”

Drew Storen is headed to see Dr. Freeze.  Here’s what I said about three weeks ago, “Drew Storen had arm discomfort… About two weeks ago (so that was about five weeks ago now; this is me adding an addendum — Hey!  Okay, back to the quote).  He hasn’t pitched in a game since March 7th (that’s more than a month ago; okay, maybe I didn’t need to clarify that) and had soreness in his biceps playing catch yesterday (that’s less than a month ago, but more than three weeks ago… Oh, forget.  I’m coming out of this quote.)”  And that’s me coming out of my quote prematurely!  That’s what she said!  Wait, huh?  My guess is Storen will probably be out for a few months.  You don’t go see Dr. Freeze for the lollipops.  Unless he’s removing your arm and giving you lollipop appendages.  “Hey, guys, stop calling me a Dum-Dum and I’m serious!”  We shall see on when Storen will return.  I’ve been preaching about Henry Rodriguez for about three weeks too.  He’s a wild cat.  Yesterday, he came in and seduced me with his filth, but left me sad and alone with the wild.  (The preceding was not an excerpt from my soon to be released western novel, “Saddle Up To My Stache.”)  If HanK-Rod is still out there, I’d grab him.  If Lidge is out there, I’d grab him too.  I’m pretty sure Davey will decide on one closer within the next week or so and you’ll be able to drop the guy not getting saves.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Anibal Sanchez – 6 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 7 baserunners, 4 Ks.  It’s a solid start, so I’m not gonna complain too much, which is obviously leading into me complaining.  Now, it’s the first start of the year for Anibal, couldn’t we have been happy with 6 strong innings and not sent him out there to give up two runs in the 7th?  Stupid Ozzie!  (By the way, I made “Stupid Ozzie” a shortcut on my computer.  Now whenever I type “St” it fills in the rest with Stupid Ozzie.)

Giancarlo Stupid Ozzie – Was scratched with knee pain.  The Marlins aren’t that concerned, but the Marlins also decided to put a giant sculpture of unicorn vomit in their outfield, so I’m not sure how much we should trust them.

Omar Infante – 2-for-4 with 2 homers, and now has 3 homers on the year.  Look at the Infante getting all grown up.  Who’s the big boy?  You’re the big boy.

Emilio Bonifacio – 3-for-4 with his 4th steal in 5 games.  Was actually kinda bummed I didn’t draft Bonifacio on any teams.  I was like three Phillie Blunts high on him when I did my rankings.  Oh, well, can’t get everyone I suppose, especially when Rudy refused to draft him on any of our teams.  *shakes fist* Rudy!

Brandon Phillips – Left yesterday’s game with a hamstring cramp.  Doesn’t Midol make something for that?

Jonathan Papelbon – 1 IP, 1 ER.  Kazaam!

Jhoulys Chacin – 4 IP, 4 ER, 9 baserunners, 3 Ks.  Worst thing you can do is overreact early on to one start or a few oh-fer’s.  With that said, Yo-Lease is a mess.  His velocity’s down, his walks are up, he’s probably dealing with an injury…. It’s what got Khalil Greene in the end, the Silent H is too much of a burden!  Yo-lease is up, move out!

Dexter Fowler – 0-for-4 yesterday as he was dropped from leadoff to the two hole.  The way he’s hitting the two hole may be appropriate figuratively, but he’s literally going to be in the eight hole soon.

Barry Zito – 9 IP, 0 ER, 4 baserunners, 4 Ks as he threw his first shutout since 2003.  After the game, Zito celebrated with a dip in the jay-couz.  (<–PNSFWUYWAAPPC — Potentially Not Safe For Work Unless You Work At A Porn Production Company)

Daniel Bard – Red Sox reiterated that they want Bard as a starter.  We shall see how they feel after Bard’s start on Tuesday vs. the Blue Jays.  I’m putting the over/under for runs at 5 and the walks at 4.  Anyone want any action?

Alfredo Aceves – Threw a perfect inning to get the save.  For now, Red Sox Nation delayed their trip to Lake Tahoe with ‘fredo.

Chipper Jones – Glass Chipper could be activated for Tuesday.  He’s probably hoping to get in the lineup immediately, so he can get injured again by the weekend.

C.J. Wilson – 7 IP, 1 ER, 7 baserunners, 5 Ks as he held the heart of the Twins order to… Hmm, where is the heart of the Twins order?

Hector Noesi – 3 IP, 7ER and Yu Darvish (5 2/3 IP, 5 ER, 12 baserunners, 5 Ks) as they combined to throw more hangers than Joan Crawford.

Josh Hamilton – 3-for-5 with a homer as he whet someone’s appetite for dance.

Brett Gardner – 1-for-1 with a steal.  Since he wasn’t very good against lefties, Girardi is using a platoon with Andruw Jones and a Waterpik to get between his braces.  Firstly, Gardner still gets in the game and steals a base (the reason you have him).  Secondly, this platoon sticks if Gardner doesn’t hit.  Last year, he hit .194 in April and .233 vs. lefties, so maybe he’s doing us a favor.  Thirdly, the platoon only sticks if the Yankees’ old and wonky lineup stays healthy.  Fourthly, there’s no fourthly.

Jake Westbrook – 7 IP, 0 ER, 7 baserunners, 2 Ks.  Zoinks!  The Ghost of Dave Duncan left a walkthrough for Jake and his friends to Escape from Great American Ballpark.

David Freese – 2-for-5 and his 2nd homer.  I’ll admit that I’m surprised by Freese’s fast start.  I thought he was an Ecksteinian (which looks odd, but Ecksteinesque sounded weird in my head) type MVP and he’d go back to being a role player.  Now, he’s just looking like he’s on a roll, player!

Chris Sale – 6 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 5 baserunners, 5 Ks.  If you’re joining us late — where you been?!  You missed about 20,000 offseason words.  I’ll summarize.  Yadda Anibal yadda Bruce yadda Anibal yadda Bruce yadda Bumgarner yadda ouch my Bum yadda Anibal and my Chris Sale fantasy.

Hector Santiago – 1 IP, 1 ER and the save.  Honestly, how long you think this Santiago thing is gonna last?  Two weeks?  Three weeks?  A month?  I’m thinking maybe three weeks.

Henderson Alvarez – 6 IP, 1 ER, 5 baserunners, 2 Ks.  Here’s what I said in the past about Alvarez, “Ground ball, pitch-to-contact pitcher who doesn’t strike out a whole lot of hitters.  In other words, the complete antithesis to every other Blue Jay pitcher.  Not wild, low Ks, kinda boring.”  And that’s me quoting me!  I’m not a big fan, but he could have match-up potential.

Sergio Santos – 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 5 baserunners and the blown save.  Red light, Chinese fire drill, pick up Francisco Cordero, get back in the car, buckle up, it’s gonna be a bumpy ride.

Tommy Milone – 8 IP, 0 ER, 6 baserunners, 0 Ks.  He won’t have any Ks ever, which is usually a than, but no thans.  But he will help you with your ratios.  Yes, I’d grab him.  Yes, right now.

Darwin Barney – 1-for-3 with a homer for The Purple Evolutionist.  His best month last year was April.  As Darwin will tell you, April is the beginning of all things (or at least baseball).

Bryan LaHair – 2-for-4 and a homer.  When you put ‘power upside’ into Google translator, it spits back “Anything but James Loney.  God, he annoys me.  You should try LaHair in deep leagues.  Now where’s my scotch?!” Geez, Google translator sounds a bit testy.

Brian Matusz – 4 IP, 4 ER.  How’s that momentum from his spring training going?

Matt Wieters – 4-for-4 with his 2nd home run of the year.  Matt Wieters Fact Number #367:  He once porked Boog Powell’s daughter while singing “Ironic” by Alanis Morissette.

Frank Francisco – Terry Collins said that Francisco is still dealing with some knee inflammation, but he should be fine.  If they need to rest him as the Mets go 162-0, they could turn to Jon Rauch or Miguel Batista, the poet laureate of baseball.  When Miguel Batista heard the news, he said, “Francisco’s on an un-mended knee… When Terry needs help, he’ll call me, sí… If Francisco’s on the shelf for a while and not feeling spry, then they’ll call Rauch, especially if that shelf’s high,” then Batista took off his Mets hat that had a feather in it and bowed.

Even if you draft one or two outfielders in the top 100 (which you should), you’ll still need to identify some late bargains.   The top 20, 40, 60 and 80 outfielders for 2012 fantasy baseball can be found under the 2012 fantasy baseball rankings.  This is by no means all the outfielders I’d draft for one of my teams.  This is a list of guys that will go after the top 200 and could provide some healthy returns.  Where applicable, click on the player’s name to read more about them and to see their 2012 projections.  Anyway, here’s some outfielders to target for 2012 fantasy baseball:

Bryce Harper – More of a keeper pick.  Not yet a stud, but should be a stud for many years to come, assuming the league doesn’t disallow every home run he hits because of too much pine tar under his eyes.

Brandon Belt – Bruce Bochy’s big head + Belt’s playing time = Suzanne Somers.  Hmm, my math is probably off there.  If Belt gets 500 ABs, he could be a top 50 player.  I’m not even playing.  Not even half playing.  Or a quarter.

Colby Rasmus – Wow, I have Rasmus way earlier in my rankings than he’s being drafted.  Like way way earlier.  Actually, that might be way way way earlier.  It’s early, let’s leave it at that.  So I’m drafting Rasmus this year, now the question is will I hate his guts by May or love him?

Mike Trout – Before their Pujols’ acquisition, the Angels were less bloated, though it sounds like the opposite should be true.  If you click that Trout-linkie-ma-who, it’s a whole post dedicated to Trout pre-Pujols.  Yeah, things get dated like raps about al-Qaeda.  If you want to know why I think you should still take a last round flyer on Trout, read the Harper post but find and replace his name with Trout.

Alex Rios – Yes, I wrote an Alex Rios sleeper post.  It kinda makes me chuckle every time I think about how lame that is.  It’s such a move ESPN would pull.  Next up, Todd Helton… Huge sleeper!  Eh, what do you want?  I’m lame, deal with it or move on dot org.  Before you do that though, remember a guy going after 200 overall that could give you 20/20 isn’t as terrible as you might think, even if you kinda want to abandon your team right after drafting him.

Lorenzo Cain – Finally, it’s his turn to run down the white lines.  Cain… Sugar!  Melky is rejected, Royals are corrected… Gordons, Crows and Butlers are thoroughly respected… The revenue gets divided… Bill James gets excited… Now Glass ain’t broke and it’s no joke… It’s hard as hell to fight it, Royals are contenders?  Don’t buy it!  Freeze!  Rock!  Raines!  Cain’s drafted a little higher, baby… A little higher, baby…

Delmon Young – Maybe it’s the whole too many times I’ve been burned thing, but I trust Delmon Young about as far as I can throw him, which is nowhere near as far as he can throw a bat.

Dexter Fowler – He’s very fast, but his stolen base percentage makes me think he’s a stoned teenager.  Dude, where’s 2nd base?

Jason Bourgeois – He doesn’t have a starting job right now, but he’s a must own if you need steals because he will see at bats – though Bourgeois resents the implication that ‘owning’ him means he’s part of the proletariat.  You’ve been Marxed!

Tony Campana – What’s the take away from this outfielders to target post?  There are lots of cheap steals.  SAGNOF!

Jose Tabata – For those who keep clicking on the names and going to the top 60 outfielders post and keep wondering why I didn’t just say look at the top 60 outfielders post, I hear ya.

Yonder Alonso – For the next time you’re playing “Would you rather” here’s a good one.  Would you rather Yonder get everyday playing time for the Padres or 350 ABs for the Reds?  BTW, that’s assuming you’re playing “Would you rather” and there’s no girls within 100 feet.

Dayan Viciedo -  Could he breakout and have a huge year?  Sure, but he’d also have to have a BABIP over .350 and a HR/FB over 20%.  A cliché that doesn’t exist that I just made up right now says, “Possible and probable only share a few letters.”

Alex Presley – These outfielders are in no particular order.  If they were in order with the best guy first, Presley would be on top.  (Or maybe last if I were to build suspense until the top guy.  Anyhoo!)  I kinda want Presley on all of my teams.  After someone drafts Victorino, tell them you’re gonna take him too, only 10 rounds later in the form of Presley.  Only tell them with your inner monologue so no one else hears you and drafts Presley first.

Nolan Reimold – Now if these were in order and Reimold had 550 ABs coming his way, then he’d be on the top of the list.  I think the O’s have Endy Chavez, Wilson Betemit and Chris Davis in their potential everyday lineup because they want to be contracted.  How about the Astros and Orioles combine forces?  The O’stros?  Anyone?

Chris Heisey – Now if Heisey was guaranteed everyday playing time, didn’t play for Dusty and Reimold was still without a starting job, Heisey would be on the top of my list (if these were in order and I started with the top guy first.  This isn’t getting confusing, is it?  No?  Good!)

Carlos Gomez – Haven’t mentioned him anywhere this offseason.  That’s just plain wrong!  No, actually it’s not.  He’s terrible.  He sucks, at ya know, baseball.  If the ex-Marlin, I-can’t-hit-so-I’ll-bunt-and-take-PEDs Alex Sanchez had a twin sister and they had a baby together, it would be Carlos Gomez.  Gomez could steal 30 bases if he can get 400 ABs.  Remember, Corey Hart is already hurt and Nyjer Mogan is one thorough psychological evaluation away from ending up in a mental asylum.

Traditional, smarishional, am I right?

I mean, long gone are the days when your soon-to-be father-in-law would actually pay you (in sheep, no less) to take his wretched daughter off his hands.

Similarly, Razzballers are becoming masters of their own domains and kicking the traditional 5×5 fantasy baseball game to the curb. According to this survey, a ton of you guys are adding OPS to your leagues. OPS is on-base plus slugging – basically the sum of a player’s OBP and their slugging (to put it in almost identical wording).

I understand it, it’s new. The long ball is fun. It’s not the 1940s anymore when players hit only singles and everyone had tons of acres and sheep and whatnot to give away.

Back to fake reality: if you’re in one of these newfangled leagues, you have to change the kind of dowry you offer for certain players.

Black OPS All-stars

Not surprisingly, a lot of hitters featured in the OBP value risers will gain value in OPS leagues. Jose Bautista, Lance Berkman, Prince Fielder, Carlos Pena, Mark Reynolds and Nick Swisher all become even more valuable in this type of league. In addition a few other guys gain a good bit of value.

Hanley Ramirez: Shortstops, as a whole, tend to suck even more when it comes to OBP and OPS leagues. Troy Tulowitzki stands a cut above the rest. However, even including last season’s disaster, Ramirez is the #2 SS in OPS over the last three seasons. For his career, Ramirez has a .886 OPS. While he might not get back to his .900+ OPS ways, a .370 OBP and .450 slugging percentage would net him a .820 OPS, which would have been in the top 40 last season and third at the position. A resurgent Hanley is a phenomenal option in OPS leagues.

Carlos Gonzalez: Gonzalez posted the 12^th best OPS among OFs last season and has the third best OPS since 2009 at the position. A .365 OBP and .545 slugging percentage (i.e., .910 OPS) seem par for the course with Gonzalez now. That’s a top 15 mark most years. If you add the steals and other counting numbers, Gonzalez becomes an incredibly interesting option in the late first round.

Carlos Beltran: A healthy Beltran represents huge value in OPS leagues. He has the seventh best OPS since 2009 among OFs and posted the ninth best mark at the position just last season. Over the last few seasons, Beltran has increased his walk rate and OBP, and, when healthy has maintained an ISO above .215. Beltran will post a .372 OBP and .487 slugging percentage, meaning an .859 OPS. He has the upside to #1 OF status for your team who you can probably get as your third OF.

Kevin Youkilis: Youkilis (Grey’s geriatric love), who didn’t post an OBP below .390 from 2007-2010, could have been mentioned in the OBP piece (but he’s a no brainer in that format). However, he has posted the 10th best OPS over the last three years. While his 2011 OPS (.833) was low by his standards, it would easily finish top 10 at the position. Outside of health, the only concern entering 2012 is that lack of fly balls from Youkilis last season. Unless he is trading fly balls for liners off the green monster, his slugging percentage will suffer (as it did in 2011). For that reason, Youkilis seems like a .490 slugging guy (oddly right in line with his career number). Add in a .395 OBP and you have an .885 OPS, which would have been second at the position last year and 16th overall. Even if you want to dock him a few more points in SLG and OBP, he’s still a top OPS performer.

Mark Teixeira: Teixeira is tied with Ryan Howard for the 10^th best OPS among first basemen over the last three seasons. Still, that OPS lands him in a tie for 21st overall during that time. OPS, it’s a first baseman’s game. Teixeira shows that you can obtain elite production in OPS from the back-end of the first baseman pool, suggesting waiting on a slugger makes a lot of sense. Teixeira has an .877 OPS with the Yankees and should be good for a .360 OBP and .510 SLG this season, i.e., an .870 OPS, which would have put him among the top 25 players last season and eighth at the position.

Sleeper OPS

Jim Thome: Thome has the 15^th best OPS over the last three years. During that time, he has averaged 27 HRs, a .376 OBP and a .526 SLG. While last season was nowhere close to his near-vintage 2010, it was in line with his production in 2009. For the Phillies, a .360 OBP and .480 SLG is not out of the question. That would give him a solid .840 OPS. The at bats might not be there, but he’s decidedly worth a flier in OPS leagues.

Josh Willingham: Surprisingly, Willingham is tied with Jayson Werth for the 41st best OPS over the last three seasons. That places him tied for 14th among OFs during that span as well. While Willingham’s OBP struggled last season, it was the first time he was in the American League and first time his walk rate dipped below double digits. Clearly some adjustment was needed and Willingham hit far better in the second half. There’s no reason Willingham can’t get his walk rate back to 11.5%, which should push his OBP to at least .355. In addition, he slugged .477 last year in Oakland, so he should have no problem putting up a .470 SLG in Minnesota. This would give Willingham an .825 OPS, which would put him in the top 20 at his position.

Luke Scott: Last season was a disaster for Scott. However, in the previous three years, he averaged a .348 OBP and .497 SLG (.845 OPS). Of course, there is a legitimate chance father time is catching up to Scott as he will be 34 this season. Nevertheless, he is mostly an afterthought in drafts and should be a cheap lottery ticket in OPS leagues.

Matt Joyce: Joyce, 27-years-old, has put up an .829 OPS over the last two seasons. While he took a small step backward in OBP last year (his walk rate was 9.4%), there’s no way he can’t get it back to 11% or so. If he does, he can post a .355 OBP. In addition, Joyce is entering his prime, hit more line drives last year and could be good for a few more extra base hits. A .482 SLG would net him an .837 OPS, making him an incredibly solid option in OPS leagues. In addition, his splits give you a blueprint to use him, i.e., only when a righty is starting.

Dexter Fowler: There aren’t many speed guys who rank among the OPS leaders at their respective positions (and calling Fowler a speed guy might be generous). Fowler’s .796 OPS last season was 29th for OFs and he demonstrated solid growth throughout the season. His three highest OPS months were in the second half and there was a near 200 point gulf between his first half OPS and second half. Fowler has always walked at a good clip and has posted 21%+ line drive rates the last three seasons. A .365 OBP and .435 SLG are not out of the question, which would help him reach a .800 OPS. Those numbers are a tad optimistic, but he could also improve on them. The biggest aspect of Fowler’s game that limits his value is his failure to use his speed. He was 12/21 in SB attempts last year and is 52/80 in his MLB career. Still, Fowler has two important ingredients in a base stealer: speed and OBP. Call Fowler a real big sleeper in OPS leagues.

Taco Bell Black OPS (non)Ballers

There is a bunch of cross-over from the OBP post to the OPS one when it comes to sucky guys for this format (cough shortstops). Alcides Escobar, Ian Desmond, Ichiro and others who don’t get on base a ton and hit a lot of singles lose tremendous value in OPS leagues.

Elvis Andrus: Andrus had the 13^th best OPS among SS last season (behind Erick Aybar, Derek Jeter, Emilio Bonifacio, Yunel Escobar and others). While Andrus has begun to walk at a decent clip and his ISO double last season, his career OBP and SLG are separated by just .003. Andrus will get on base just fine (.350), however his SLG won’t be much higher (.360), leaving him with a pretty terrible .710 OPS. There’s better ways to get 40 SBs than sacrificing that OPS.

Jimmy Rollins: Surprisingly, Rollins posted the 11th best OPS last season at the position and has the 16th best OPS over the last three years. His OPS during that time is lower than Marco Scutaro and Juan Uribe. Rollins’ ISO has trended down since 2007 and has apparently stabilized at .130. While he has begun to walk more, he has also tried to hit more fly balls (potentially to make up for his lack of power), which has zapped his batting average. Consequently, he is giving back the OBP he would have gained with his walks in trying to hit homers. At this point, he looks like a .330 OBP and .400 SLG. He won’t post an OPS much higher than Andrus in 2012.

Michael Bourn: While not as weak as Andrus, Bourn doesn’t drive the ball at all. Bourn maintains value in OBP leagues, but posting around a .700 OPS leaves fantasy owners wanting. Bourn is basically Mark Reynolds in OPS leagues. He provides elite value in one-category while hurting you remarkably in another. He’s not quite as disastrous as Reynolds in average, but it’s probably better to get speed somewhere else.

Alex Rios: Even when Rios was great in 2010, he didn’t crack a .800 OPS. In fact, his OPS over the last three seasons is barely in the top 90 OFs. Even if he bounces back in an optimistic sense (.325 OBP and .440 SLG), that’s a .765 OPS, which would have tied for 34th at the position last year and would be worse than what Jon Jay did.  Right now, he’s ranked 70th at Fleaflicker, which is madness, but even if he were another 100 spots later, I’d pass in an OPS league.

Cameron Maybin: Maybin is an odd case as he walks a decent amount and has the potential to drive the ball (.130 ISO last year, .132 for his career), yet he has a .704 OPS for his career. Still, he has posted mammoth OPS seasons in the minors and is still relatively young, so there is room for optimism. However, not even the most optimistic projections (.350 OBP, .425 SLG) get him to an .800 OPS. In reality, it’s far more likely he posts a .330 OBP and .400 SLG. That marginalizes his 40 steal potential.

On Base Percentage (OBP) is what Skynet created for the Oakland A’s so they could win the World Series and ruin baseball.

Actually, that doesn’t sound quite right. I think OBP is the brew baseball writers’ fermented in a basement to scare Andre Dawson, or it was the reason pitchers feared Jim Rice, thereby making him a Hall of Famer.

I’m all confused. But, apparently, Razzball readers and commentators aren’t. According to the recent survey we conducted (to mine all of your personal information to sell to Facebook), a ton of you play in leagues that swap out average for those crazy on base skills. Accordingly, this changes the value of several players:

Jose Bautista: Over the last three seasons (including Bautista’s generally poor 2009), Bautista has the eighth best OBP. Last season, Bautista was just .001 behind the OBP leader, Miguel Cabrera, and over the last two seasons, Bautista has the third best OBP in all of baseball. The only glaring weakness in Jose Bautista’s armor is average. If you substitute OBP, Bautista is a legitimate best-player-in-the-format candidate.

Lance Berkman: Berkman’s .412 OBP last year was the fifth best in all of baseball and not far off his career mark (.409). While Berkman’s average is typically useful, his OBP is top 10, making him a four-category stud. With OBP instead of average, Berkman should pass the likes of Paul Konerko, Mark Teixeira, and Eric Hosmer and is a top six first baseman.

Adam Dunn: Until 2011, Dunn was the answer to the question of who benefits most from the switch to OBP. Last season, he posted an OBP under .300. Oddly enough his walk rate was close to his career norm, but his already high K-rate spiked, his ISO and BABIP cratered and he hit .159. Dunn can walk and appears to be approaching 2012 with more determination. A return to .350 OBP is certainly plausible and has some upside. Last season, Mike Stanton with a .356 OBP had the 40th best mark.

Prince Fielder: Fielder and Pujols have the same OBP over the last three seasons. During that time, Pujols has just 10 more HRs and eight more RBIs. In addition, during that same span, Cabrera has an OBP .012 points higher, 14 less HRs and 10 less RBIs. Fielder isn’t the top 1B in OBP leagues, but he isn’t far off. His move to the American League could depress his numbers somewhat, but in OBP leagues, he is a top producer.

Carlos Pena: While Carlos Pena’s OBP skills do not produce league leading rates, they do erase the stank displeasure of his putrid batting average. Pena has a .239 career average, but .352 OBP. A first baseman capable of hitting 25-30 HRs with a .355 OBP is top-10 consideration.

Mark Reynolds: Like Pena, Reynolds makes an untenable batting average disappear with a superior walk rate. For his career, his OBP is about 100 points higher than his batting average. While his .323 OBP last season was tied for 99th best, it’s a far cry from where his average would rank him. Reynolds is an incredibly attractive option in OBP leagues, as his immense power is not entirely derailed by a sub-optimal OBP. Grab Reynolds with confidence that you will get a .330 OBP, with 35 HRs and near 100 runs and RBIs.

Carlos Ruiz: Over the last three seasons, Ruiz trails only Joe Mauer in OBP. His .376 mark is far ahead of the third place healthy backstop Brian McCann. An afterthought in most leagues, Ruiz can provide solid catcher production in OBP leagues at virtually no cost. Pencil Ruiz in for a .365 OBP, eight HRs and 50+ runs and RBIs.

Nick Swisher: Nick Swisher in an on base cyborg. When you throw out Ryan Braun, Jose Bautista and Lance Berkman, Swisher has the fourth best OBP over the last three seasons (behind Matt Holliday, Shin-soo Choo and Carlos Beltran). With Swisher’s .365 OBP and the Yankee line-up, runs and RBIs will be there. He’ll also add good pop and, best of all, you don’t have to worry about his .255 average.

Ben Zobrist: Zobrist, who walks at a great clip, has the ability to post the second best OBP at the position (behind Dustin Pedroia). A basic 20-20 guy with 100 runs and RBI potential, Zobrist takes a massive step forward in OBP leagues when they do away with his .260 average.

OBP Sleeper Values

Daric Barton: Over the last three seasons (1,158 plate appearances), Barton has a .373 OBP. He crashed and burned last season, but still posted an above average walk rate. If healthy, Barton should post a .365 OBP with 10 or so HRs, 80 runs and 70 RBIs. He could be a sneaky value in OBP leagues.

Jack Cust: Like Barton, Cust was horrible last year. However he had a .366 OBP from 2009-2011 and is moving from two difficult parks (Oakland and Seattle) to the hitter friendlier Houston and NL Central. In the easier league, Cust’s walk rate should play tremendously, possibly to the tune of a .370 OBP. He could also add 20-25 HRs and solid RBIs. As a flier, Cust’s upside makes the gamble reasonable.

Dexter Fowler: If only Fowler knew how to steal bases! His .365 OBP and 12.1% walk rate last season was a good step forward and echoed his minor league successes. He’ll likely only produce two categories: runs and OBP, but has a decent shot at 20 steals and upside to more if he ever figures out how to use his speed.

Jason Heyward: While Heyward hasn’t quite become a star, he knows how to get on base (13.2% walk rate, .362 OBP). In addition, his legitimate and realistic upside to 20+ HRs and 15 SBs make him worth reaching for in drafts. As he gets on base, he’ll score runs and has a solid shot at triple digits. At the worst, you have a solid run and OBP contributor with a little pop and speed.

Nate McLouth: Aside from a rough 2010, McLouth has shown above average on base skills. In fact, he posted double digit walk rates in every season since 2007, excepting 2008. As a late flier, McLouth makes a ton of sense. He should post a .345 OBP, get close to double digit HRs and steals and provide somewhat solid counting stats.

Geovany Soto: Soto’s treacherous average makes betting on his power unreasonable in average leagues. However, his 11.8% walk rate and .348 OBP solidify his power. As a catcher capable of 17-20 HRs with a .340 OBP, he is a clear top 10 option.

Those that get hurt in OBP leagues

Adrian Beltre: Beltre has been a good hitter throughout his career, especially since his escape from Seattle (.309 average last two seasons). However, he averages just 41 walks a season and has only posted two OBPs above .331 since 2001. His 2011 OBP was lower than that of Edwin Encarnacion, Ryan Roberts, Evan Longoria, Aramis Ramirez, Kevin Youkilis and Michael Young, whereas he had the third highest average among qualifiers at the position last year. He simply doesn’t walk enough and projecting and OBP over .335 is silly. While he remains a top seven option or so, hot corner specialists like Ryan Zimmerman, Youkilis and others can have more of an impact in OBP leagues.

Starlin Castro: There are a ton of shortstops with small gulfs between their averages and OBPs. Castro, who hit .307, is one of those. His average last season was only behind Troy Tulowitzki, however his OBP trailed eight shortstops. Given his age, there is optimism for growth, however Castro loses some luster in OBP leagues.

Robinson Cano: Cano has been a batting average superstar for much of his career. However, aside from 2010, he’s never been an on base machine. Last season, his OBP was seventh at the position and over the last three seasons is fifth. Meanwhile, Dustin Pedroia is an OBP dynamo. Certainly swapping average for OBP closes the gap between Cano and Pedroia. In this format, I wouldn’t mind passing on Cano and securing Pedroia.

Ian Desmond: Desmond just isn’t very good, so we shouldn’t be surprised he gets dinged in OBP leagues. His career .304 OBP was actually better than his effort last season, even though he improved his walk rate. There’s some optimism that Desmond can get his OBP to the .310-.320 range as he did improve his walks and cut down on swinging strikes and swinging at balls, however, over the last three seasons, roughly 30 shortstops have averaged OBPs over .315.

Alcides Escobar: In OBP formats, Escobar becomes a true one-category producer. His career .294 OBP is putrid and he has shown no signs of improvement (his walk rate declined in 2011, he chased more balls out of the zone and swung and missed more). He might be good for 25 steals, but that’s all he’s good for in fantasy.

Jeff Francoeur: Over the last three seasons, Francoeur’s .314 OBP is 75^th among OFs, nestled between Aaron Rowand and Luke Scott. While his OBP improved last season, it was in large part thanks to a .323 BABIP and .285 AVG – he didn’t walk anymore and actually struck out more than normal. It is prudent to temper expectations for Francoeur in OBP leagues, especially because if that OBP suffers he’ll have no chance of reaching 20 steals again.

Ichiro: Just like Dunn has been the perennial gainer in OBP leagues, Ichiro has been the perennial loser. His .351 OBP over the last three seasons is 30^th among OFs, while his .312 average is third. While many expect a bounce back, Ichiro is unlikely to post an OBP above .345, which, last season, would have tied him for 28th at the position. OBP leagues take away one of Ichiro’s calling cards: his superior average and relegate him to #3/#4 OF status.

Adam Jones: Jones really likes to swing the bat; his swing percentages have gone up pretty much across the board every season. In fact, his O-Swing% (the percentage of pitches a batter swings at outside the strike zone) is at Vlad Guerrero levels. While he has been able to post solid averages, his swinging has translated to miniscule walk rates. He’s a fine option for average leagues, but his OBP over the last three seasons is 70th among OFs. In addition, his OBP has been trending downward: .335 in 2009, .325 in 2010 and .319 in 2011.