Fantasy Baseball Advice

David Wright Tears It Up In The Wrong Cage

March 15, 2012 By: Grey Category: 2012 Fantasy Baseball Draft 127 Comments →

The Mets doctors said Johan Santana would miss a start or two.  That was a year ago.  He’s still working his way back.  The Mets doctors said Jose Reyes would miss a weekend series in 2009, he missed three months.  The Mets doctors said Carlos Beltran would miss a game in 2009; it took him two years to come back.  The other day someone asked me for money for Doctors Without Borders so they could help people in The Congo.  Why isn’t there a lady in front of Whole Foods asking me to donate to find a cure for David Wright?  Because I sure don’t trust the Mets doctors.  Film a PSA with Chipper Jones and Julie Andrews and show that shizz before movies.  “I’m Julie Andrews.”  “And I’m Chipper Jones”  Both, “And David Wright needs our help.”  The Mets are saying Wright has a tear in his left side and Mets fans have a tear in their eyes.  Word on the street is Wright has a similar injury to Ryan Zimmerman’s last year when he missed two months.  The prognosis, if prognosis is the right word, is not good.  Wright is saying he can be ready by Opening Day.  I say great, terrific, other sarcastic word, I don’t want to draft him anywhere.  If Della Reese touches his bat while dressed as an angel and Wright gets 500 ABs this year, how good do you think those 500 ABs are gonna be?  Do you think he’s going to show power?  If 22 homers were the low end for his projections, I’d be surprised if he breaks 17 homers now.  What if when he slides, he feels pain in his side?  He’s not going to be stealing bases.  You see Wright there in the 5th round now, I say pass.  Yes, third base just got shallower.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw in spring training for 2012 fantasy baseball:

Salvador Perez – Tweaked his knee badly and the Royals sent him for an MRI.  I liked Perez late in drafts, so I went looking around for updates on this injury and ended up at the Kansas City Star.  Their article started with this line, “The Royals awaited word Tuesday night on the status of their $7 million catcher.”  It was funny — and by funny I mean not funny at all — to me how that was the attention grabber in KC.  KC is fretting over seven million dollars that is over five years.  Yeah, parity is alive and well.   Well, whatever the case is, it’s bad news for Perez.  He has a meniscus tear and will need surgery.  As of this writing, there was no timetable for his return, but I’m guessing six to eight weeks.  I’d avoid him in all leagues.  Too bad, so sad.

Desmond Jennings – Collided with B.J. Upton and both needed to be carted off the field.  This is the worst B.J. related news since that girl with the braces… Well, you remember.  Jennings says he’s fine and should be back on the field in a day or two.

B.J. Upton – On the other side of that collision, Fellatio Upton took the worse of it.  Yet, he too says he’ll be fine after a couple of days.  He’s just dealing with general soreness.  General Soreness is his bodyguard.

Freddy Garcia – Hit with a comebacker.  He told A-Rod he slept with his ex, and A-Rod said, “Yeah, well, that ex was really a man!”  *checking notes*  Hmm, seems like he was hit with a different kind of comebacker, one off a bat.  The X-rays came back negative, which is actually bad news because it means he can keep pitching.

Tim Hudson – Cleared to throw a bullpen session, but will still be out until at least the first few weeks of the season.  Bring on Randall Delgado!

Bryce Harper – Told reporters that he doesn’t expect to make the club.  Then the next day, Nats GM Rizzo (not Anthony) told reporters Harper could still have a shot.  We have a Razzball exclusive as to what really went down.  Harper to reporters, “I’m not making the club.”  Rizzo to Harper, “We’re trying to sell frickin’ tickets to frickin’ fans to see frickin’ Nats games and you’re telling them you’re not playing?!  Shut your pie hole!”  Rizzo to reporters, “He’s still in the picture. We’re still early in the decision-making process.”  Riiiiiiight.  That’s seven I’s.

John Lannan – Mike Rizzo said he’s fielded several calls on Lannan, but are not shopping him.  He must’ve learned how to neg from The Game.

Chris Perez – Threw from 150 feet yesterday.  Looks like the Indians found a Grady Sizemore replacement.  It’s sounding more and more likely that Perez will be ready to go for Opening Day.

Lance Lynn – With Carpenter almost definitely maybe heading to the DL to start the season, Lynn looks to move his way into the rotation.  Out of the bullpen last year, Lynn’s fastball regularly touched the high-90′s as he put up a 2.22 ERA and 32 Ks in 24 1/3 IP.  As a starter, he was much less exciting (5.23 ERA, 8 Ks), but like a man who needs prunes that was in limited duty (10 1/3 IP).  From his minor league track record, we see a guy who has a 7+ K-rate and moderate control.  In NL-Only and very deep mixed leagues, I’d grab Lynn late to see if he can surprise in an early season role with the Cards.  There’s a chance for some sweet, sweet upside here.

Tyler Greene – Battling right now for the Cardinals’ 2nd base job with Daniel Descalso and Skip Schumaker.  Obviously, unless you’re in a deep NL-Only league, you stopped reading this blurb already.  Nothing gets people excited like the mention of Skip Schumaker!  Greene did well in Triple-A last year (14 homers, 19 steals in 66 games), but that’s probably because he was 27 years old, i.e., he was old to still be in the minors.  In 150 major league games, he’s hit .218 with 5 homers and 16 steals.  Best case scenario, we get a Baha Man year.  Most realistic scenario, there’s a three-way time share at 2nd.

Josh Hamilton – Jammed his heel.  For those that like things delivered in comic book form, Texas hero deals with wounded heel.  Rangers are saying this is the first of five dozen minor injuries Hamilton will endure this year, but he should be fine.

Aroldis Chapman – Pitched well yesterday in his bid to become a starter.  There’s only one catch, the Reds have five starters already.  They would need an injury to someone on their staff.  Popping his head in, Dusty says, “Did someone say we need a pitching injury?”  Okay, but if you’re drafting today, you’re drafting Chapman as a middle reliever.

Anibal Sanchez – Maybe you’ve heard me mention this brother with the name of a mother before.  Yeah, I love him and guess what?  He struck out 4 yesterday through two innings with no problems from his previously sore shoulder.  When I say boo, you say ya.  Boo…Ya…  (By the way, I think the Marlins might be watching a bit too much of The Voice.)

Juan Carlos Oviedo – Will report to camp this week.  No word yet when Leo Nunez is reporting.

Ryan Howard – Yesterday, Jimmy Rollins said he’d be surprised if Howard plays this year.  In related news, the team announced Rollins is out of the running for Director of Phillies Public Relations.

Brett Jackson – As expected, the Cubs announced that Jackson will start the year in the minors.  There’s no way Byrd, Soriano and DeJesus are all still starting in the outfield by July.  Worth noting in keeper and deep NL-Only leagues.  Earlier in the offseason, I went over my Brett Jackson fantasy.  I wrote it while watching Luck with the closed captioning on, so I could read what the hell Nick Nolte was saying.

Garrett Jones – Looks like he will be the starting 1st baseman for the Pirates vs. righties.  As I mentioned in the 1st basemen to target post, in deep, daily leagues, you can get some value there.  Or not.  For instance, “Hey, horse, here’s water.”  Horse, “Neigh.”

Jacob Turner – Going through a dead arm period.  The doctors weren’t sure what the problem was at first, then Haley Joel Osment said he saw Turner’s arm.

ESPN’s 2012 Fantasy Baseball Rankings Rankle, Should Be Ankled

March 12, 2012 By: Grey Category: 2012 Fantasy Baseball Draft 149 Comments →

ESPN fantasy baseball rankings are the same old shizz, different effin’ year.  We’ll get to them in a second.  I gotta build up my anger.  Right now, I’m feeling downright jovial because I just watched the coup de grâce of unintentional comedy — ESPN’s Rankings Roundtables.  If you have a few minutes, watch a part of one.  You don’t need to watch the whole thing, unless you’re into Gitmo’ing yourself.  A few things I noticed from watching a minute of one:  1) Cockcroft looks like he wants to stab Berry in the eye with Stephania Bell’s injury reports.  2) The general air surrounding the proceedings is everyone in the room knows what a bad idea the roundtables are because then people will get to see the methodology behind their rankings is Berry whining, “But guys!”  3) Brendan Roberts sits with his hands folded, trying not to get called on.  But what the casual viewer is missing is Brendan’s also mumbling to Cockcroft to nudge him if he falls asleep.  4) They are in a bare room, but sitting in what appears to be Louis Vuitton chairs.  5) Brendan Roberts gelled his hair for this.  6) I wish they sat Karabell and Cockcroft together so it would look like an Office Space reunion with Michael Bolton and Milton.

I don’t bring these videos up simply because there’s a lack of unintentional comedy since Kim Jong-il passed and can no longer look at things.  I think it gives you an eye into the belly of the beast.  There’s no methodology.  There’s no rhyme or reason.  If you held ESPN’s rankings in any regard before this, now you see their rankings come from a room of guys trying not to upset the head bozo.  So when you see ESPN ranks Michael Bourn 35th overall, you say to yourself, “Yeah, well, the head bozo must’ve wanted him early.”  Then when you see ESPN gives Desmond Jennings the projections of 82/16/51/.256/37, you think that’s great projections, but why is he ranked way down at 104th overall?  There’s no reason!  That’s the take away.  (Side note:  I Googled to see if take away was one word or two.  Didn’t really find a definitive answer, but I found this sentence as an example for take away, “The death of her mother removed the last obstacle to their marriage.”  Huh?  That doesn’t even use take away and the mother dying is the last obstacle for their marriage is the best example they can come up with?  I wonder if Free Dictionary dot com has definition roundtables.  Any hoo…)

There’s some players that stand out with a huge difference between me and ESPN.  One guy I’m going to happily own in multiple leagues is Howie Kendrick.  His ranking on most ‘pert sheets is as puzzling to me as Jay Bruce (which you’ll hear more of if you listen to the podcast that is coming later today.  You can hardly wait.  No, you.  The Razzball Podcast:  Where I sound as sharp as Brendan Roberts’s hair!).  People loved Kendrick for a bunch of years and he disappointed, then he has his best year, is 28 years old, gets Pujols into his lineup and NOW (caps for emphasis, not aesthetics) everyone is down on him.  Hey, Talking Heads, stop making sense.

Next guy that stands out is David Ortiz.  They ranked him 67th overall.  About 120 picks before me.  Then they ranked Adam Lind about 70 spots after Ortiz while giving them nearly the same projections.  Sure, Ortiz is 8 years older so, I guess, he’s got experience.  What he doesn’t have is position eligibility.  I guess it’s better to take a 36-year-old utility man in the 6th round and wait on a 28-year-old 1st baseman.  Yeah, I have no idea either.  My head is starting to hurt, so I’m gonna move on.

Boy, everyone hates Mark Reynolds.  I know, he doesn’t hit for average, but are we all playing in one category leagues?  If so, let a brother know and say brother like Hulk Hogan.  That would help explain Reynolds and Bourn’s rankings.  According to their own stupid Player Rater, Reynolds was more valuable than Wright, Zimmerman and A-Rod last year.  He was nearly as valuable as Longoria, according to them.  Sure, those other 3rd basemen had off years, but you know what Reynolds didn’t have?  An off year.  In fact, in his five year career, if you assume anything .220 or higher is fine for Reynolds, then he’s only had one off year.  I think Ryan Zimmerman has only had one ‘on’ year.  Reynolds ranks 156th overall at ESPN right after… Wait for it… Here it comes… Shoot, I think I left it in the other room… Hold on one second… Okay, here it is… Reynolds is ranked after Carlos Lee!  Wait, huh?!  Next year for their roundtables, they should bring in the real wizard behind the rankings:  The homeless person they bought lunch for at Benihana while they picked his brain.

Below is a rough and tumble charts of where some of the bigger discrepancies were between ESPN and me.  The first chart is where I’m higher on someone, which is 95% (no math done for that number) young guys who I see getting better.  The second chart is where I’m lower on players, which is 95% (still no math!) older guys or guys coming off career years that I don’t have much faith in.  The chart was provided by Fantasy Pros.  I’ll warn you; if you go to that site you might find yourself losing three hours of your life while your loved one threatens divorce.

Player Position Grey’s Rank ESPN’s Rank Difference
Peter Bourjos OF 95 239 144
Jose Tabata OF 149 280 131
Yoenis Cespedes OF 117 242 125
Trevor Cahill SP 158 269 111
Ike Davis 1B 98 208 110
Ryan Howard 1B 87 196 109
Danny Valencia 3B 167 268 101
Colby Rasmus OF 115 206 91
Austin Jackson OF 169 257 88
Danny Espinosa 2B 102 189 87
Emilio Bonifacio SS 126 213 87
Alex Rios OF 114 197 83
Delmon Young OF 170 252 82
Carlos Quentin OF 147 224 77
Jhoulys Chacin SP 157 232 75
Howie Kendrick 2B 46 118 72
Mark Reynolds 3B 84 156 72
Alcides Escobar SS 186 258 72
Derek Holland SP 174 244 70
Ian Desmond SS 166 235 69
Jair Jurrjens SP 187 256 69
Brennan Boesch OF 194 261 67
Justin Morneau 1B 205 270 65
Mike Leake SP 238 300 62
Aaron Hill 2B 151 211 60
Logan Morrison OF 94 153 59
Mike Moustakas 3B 135 190 55
Dexter Fowler OF 195 247 52
Adam Lind 1B 85 135 50
Mat Gamel 3B 214 264 50
Jesus Montero C 139 188 49
Jake Peavy SP 234 282 48
Kendrys Morales 1B 203 249 46
Jarrod Saltalamacchia C 247 293 46
Buster Posey C 82 127 45
Gio Gonzalez SP 88 132 44
Mark Trumbo 1B 182 226 44
Kevin Youkilis 3B 56 99 43
Vance Worley SP 209 250 41
Salvador Perez C 246 287 41
Carlos Marmol CL 143 183 40
Jonathan Lucroy C 250 290 40
Michael Young 3B 58 97 39
Drew Stubbs OF 73 112 39
Brandon Morrow SP 132 170 38
Kenley Jansen CL 176 214 38
Anibal Sanchez SP 101 137 36
Alejandro De Aza OF 258 294 36
Desmond Jennings OF 70 104 34
Jason Heyward OF 75 109 34
Russell Martin C 249 283 34
Krispie Young OF 74 107 33
Brandon Belt 1B 202 234 32
Matt Thornton CL 221 253 32
Madison Bumgarner SP 50 80 30
Jemile Weeks 2B 172 202 30

 

Player Position Grey’s Rank ESPN’s Rank Difference
Carlos Beltran OF 145 115 -30
Jose Altuve 2B 267 237 -30
Mariano Rivera CL 104 73 -31
Tyler Clippard MR 282 251 -31
Dee Gordon SS 165 133 -32
Andrew Bailey CL 190 158 -32
Jim Johnson CL 274 241 -33
Sean Rodriguez 2B 278 245 -33
Jered Weaver SP 65 31 -34
Mike Napoli C 81 47 -34
David Freese 3B 228 194 -34
Mitch Moreland OF 261 227 -34
Brandon League CL 226 191 -35
Chris Perez CL 273 238 -35
Jason Bartlett SS 289 254 -35
Ian Kennedy SP 108 72 -36
Doug Fister SP 180 144 -36
Ryan Dempster SP 239 203 -36
Bud Norris SP 237 198 -39
Tim Hudson SP 179 139 -40
Jason Motte CL 177 136 -41
Joel Hanrahan CL 162 119 -43
Gaby Sanchez 1B 206 162 -44
Neil Walker 2B 211 167 -44
Ben Zobrist 2B 96 51 -45
Kyle Farnsworth CL 218 172 -46
Matt Moore SP 121 74 -47
Wandy Rodriguez SP 213 166 -47
Melky Cabrera OF 197 149 -48
James Shields SP 113 64 -49
Alexei Ramirez SS 136 87 -49
Daniel Murphy 2B 285 236 -49
Tim Stauffer SP 231 181 -50
Brandon McCarthy SP 230 179 -51
J.J. Hardy SS 164 111 -53
Jordan Walden CL 217 163 -54
Adam Wainwright SP 155 98 -57
Ichiro Suzuki OF 148 89 -59
Martin Prado 3B 229 168 -61
Carlos Pena 1B 253 192 -61
Michael Pineda SP 154 91 -63
Ryan Madson CL 163 100 -63
Chris Carpenter SP 142 78 -64
Ted Lilly SP 232 164 -68
Matt Capps CL 275 205 -70
Javy Guerra MR 280 210 -70
Scott Baker SP 233 157 -76
Jhonny Peralta SS 204 126 -78
Angel Pagan OF 262 178 -84
Freddie Freeman 1B 207 120 -87
Daniel Bard SP 272 185 -87
Yunel Escobar SS 288 200 -88
Michael Bourn OF 125 35 -90
John Danks SP 301 209 -92
Chris Sale SP 271 177 -94
Jeremy Hellickson SP 189 93 -96
Jason Kubel OF 295 199 -96
Josh Willingham OF 286 184 -102
Rafael Betancourt CL 220 114 -106
David Ortiz U 184 66 -118
Stephen Drew SS 293 160 -133
Carlos Lee OF 298 155 -143
Hiroki Kuroda SP 300 147 -153

2012 Rays Fantasy Baseball Preview

February 04, 2012 By: Grey Category: 2012 Fantasy Baseball Team Preview 59 Comments →

We at Razzball realize that exporting our views across the country has damaging consequences on the blogosphere. To help make amends, we are reaching out to leading team blogs and featuring their locally blogged answers to pressing 2012 fantasy baseball questions regarding their team. We feel this approach will be fresher, more sustainable, and require less energy consumption (for us anyway). The 2012 Rays Fantasy Baseball Preview comes courtesy of Jason Collette from DRaysBay.

1) I have Evan Longoria as my preseason 2012 MVP pick.  This is the year, friend.  According to me.  Live with me for a second (not literally) and give me your most optimistic line for Longoria.

Ignore the easy route and looking at his insanely low BABIP last year and look at the narrative. He strained his oblique in Game 2 of the season and missed 26 games because of it. He came back only to develop a nerve issue in his big toe on his right foot that did not allow him to properly get into baseballs like good hitters want to do. He didn’t get to 100% until somewhere around mid-June, right about the same time Matt Joyce cooled off from his rocket-fueled streak in May. Now, let’s get back to that BABIP. His plate appearance and batted ball results were nearly identical to what they were in 2010: K%, BB%, pitches per plate appearance, G/L/F splits, swing rates, etc. Yet, his BABIP fell 97 points and was only over .225 in three of the five months in which he played last season. What quietly flew under the radar during his monster close to the season was that he walked more than he struck out from August 1st throughout the rest of the season and did so without sacrificing any power as he had 26 extra base hits in just 244 plate appearances. .285 with 220 R+RBI, 40 HR, & 10 SB is not crazy to predict.

2)  Desmond Jennings and I had a baby.  It was under-reported that’s why you didn’t hear it.  Okay, so I basically love all Rays (except Hellickson, we’ll get to him).  You’re a fantasy guy yourself, so you know how much the fantasy community loves Desmond Jennings.  Will we be disappointed or will he be a 2nd round pick in 2013?

I guess he took that maternity leave for most of September then. As awesome as he was in August, major league pitchers quickly found the holes in his swing in September and he proved time and time again he couldn’t lay off that high fastball and then got him making bad contact while protecting the plate after that. Dive into small sample size hell with me for a second and revisit the 17 games Jennings had after his 2 home run performance in Toronto. He hit .174/.278/.246 after that  with just two extra base hits as pitchers gave him a steady diet of those high fastballs until he finally started laying off them toward the end of the season. Durability is always a concern with him as he has only had one blemish-free professional season. I’ve seen him go in the top 50 in some drafts but that’s a risky move – not because of the talent but because of the durability issues.

3) Jeremy Hellickson’s 2011 was a mess outside of ERA.  This year his ERA catches up to his other peripherals.  True, false or I shall explain.

False. The “norm” is different in Tampa Bay. Joe Maddon employs more defensive shifts than any other manager in baseball and it is no mistake that the Rays pitching staff has had the lowest team BABIP each of the past four seasons. Sure, Longoria and Zobrist are elite defenders, but Jason Bartlett was no gem during his run here and Carlos Pena and Casey Kotchman aren’t terribly rangy side to side. Positioning is everything so a .223 BABIP against a team BABIP of .280 looks a bit better. Shields’ disastrous 2010 season is the only Rays’ starting pitcher to have a BABIP over .285 during that run as well. Hellickson is flyball heavy, but 25% of his flyballs in play never leave the infield as he induces a lot of bad contact. Also understand that his K/9 was problematic because he had John Jaso “catching” him often. Jaso is to catching what Rex Grossman is to quarterbacking. Hellickson had the lowest called strike three rate in baseball last season and thanks to the work of now Houston Astros front office guru Mike Fast, we know that Jose Molina is the best framing catcher in baseball. It is pretty easy to envision a caddy situation here as Hellickson is also susceptible to basestealers in that he isn’t quick to home plate. Molina’s framing and throwing were an early Christmas present for the young kid out of Iowa.

4) How many innings do we see from Matt Moore this year?  Does he break camp with the team?  I’ve already dropped my Matt Moore fantasy.  Now yours please.

The Rays like to keep increases from season to season at 20%, but it’s with pitch counts, not innings pitched. As long as Moore isn’t turning in Scott Kazmir 2009 specials early in the season, I see no reason why he would be under any kind of restriction in September unless the team is not contending. Then again, after what happened in 2011, the Rays would probably need to be 14 games out for the front office to throw in the white flag. We are 20 days from pitchers and catchers reporting and the Rays still have six starting pitchers. Seven when you factor in the strong likelihood of Alex Cobb going to extended spring training and eight if you consider Alex Torres could pitch in the back end of most rotations in baseball right now. Putting Davis and/or Niemann in the bullpen does nothing to help their trade value, and the bullpen is already a bit crowded with guaranteed spots for Farnsworth, Peralta, Rodney, Howell, and likely McGee. Moore is already under contract so the typical model of the team sending him down past the Super Two deadline is out of the way and if the team did send him down, the fans (insert joke here) would boo louder than they boo a B.J. Upton strikeout looking. The run support should be there this year, much like Hellickson enjoyed last season so if he is up for the full season as a starter, 12+ wins, 180+ K’s is expected, not hoped for.

5) Do Tampa Bay Ray fans live in fear of the day that Andrew Friedman finds out that Jews aren’t supposed to live in Tampa until they collect Social Security?

There’s a rumor that Friedman has part ownership in the team which is why he has turned down lucrative jobs elsewhere. That tells us he is hoping to turn a profit when the team is eventually relocated to a more appreciative market so he can cash in his chips just in time to re-enter a recovering Wall Street market and make more millions to buy his own Island. As long as Gerry Hunsicker is still in the organization, the thought of Friedman leaving is easier to digest. Losing Dan Feinstein to Oakland was a tough talent bleed for the front office but adding former fantasy guru and now scout extraordinaire Jason Grey to the front office was a nice trade-off. Besides, with Jason Grey out of the way, maybe I can finally finish in the top 3 in AL Tout Wars.

Leggings Are a Fad, Jennings Is a Keeper

October 21, 2011 By: Grey Category: 2012 Fantasy Baseball Keepers 73 Comments →

What is this, the 50th Razzball post on Desmond Jennings?  Cute, Random Italicized Voice.  All I can say is my love never peters for Jennings.  (<– Cheeky!)  Let’s look at some of things I’ve said in the past about Desmond Jennings.  “Desmond Jennings was elected Sheriff of Fantasy Baseball Heartthrob Town and finally arrested The Zodiac Killer…. Jennings has three nipples.  The third nipple won this year’s Project Runway…. Jennings will be in the first class of the Hall of Fame with Babe Ruth, Cy Young and Ty Cobb because they’ll close up Cooperstown after the Mayan apocalypse then reopen with a whole new first class.  New baseball, as it will be known, will have seventeen third basemen on the field at once and will be played with a ball called a Pfft.” On top of all that!  Jennings had a solid rookie year.  Let’s take a looksie.  In 287 plate appearances, he hit 10 homers with 20 steals while batting .259.  He was cooking with gas until he burped through September hitting only .160 with 2 homers and 2 steals.  So, yeah, he basically did all that 2011 damage in August (7 homers, 9 steals, .333 average in 108 ABs).  But enough of this preambling around, what can we expect of Desmond Jennings for next year, and what makes him a 2012 fantasy baseball keeper?

What makes him a 2012 fantasy keeper?  Do you hear yourself, Introductory Paragraph?  Is that rhetorical?  He’s the Sheriff of Fantasy Baseball Heartthrob Town!  In 2012, Jennings can be B.J. Upton without the razztastic average.  His 10 homers in two and a half months seems to be on the upper reaches for next year.  A 7 homer month is a lot.  Averaging three homers per month seems about right.  The steals aren’t going to go anywhere.  For hitters with at least 280 plate appearances, Jennings was the 6th fastest according to Bill James’s speed score, just ahead of Michael Bourn.  Doode’s fast.  The fickle pickle in all of this is the batting average.  A .300 hitter in 2012 he won’t be, but he won’t be a sub-.200 hitter either without a whole lot of bad luck.  In the month of September when he looked lost, he had a horrendous .195 BABIP, which was the 2nd worst in the entire league for hitters with 100 plate appearances.  (Of course, in his crazy good month of August, his BABIP was on the opposite side of the tilt.)  If all of that normalizes, he’s gonna be a .275 hitter next year.  So for 2012, I see his line close to 80/16/65/.275/35 with upside on the power and speed and downside on the runs and average.  Whether he gets priced out of the market in redraft leagues, we’ll have to wait and see on, but he’s definitely a 2012 fantasy baseball keeper.  Now excuse me so his third nipple can make me a ball gown for the 2012 People’s Choice Awards.

Land Of 10,000 Bad Breaks

September 19, 2011 By: Grey Category: Fantasy Baseball Daily Notes 128 Comments →

Joe Mauer is done for the year with pneumonia.  I’m almost 100% sure Morneau was the carrier of the virus.  On Friday, frequent commenter Mike said, “If you went to Joe Mauer’s house, went into his basement, jack-hammered through the concrete, and started digging, what would be the under/over on number of feet you’d have to go down before you found the first dessicated Native American corpse?  3 feet?  4 feet?  I mean, that Native American graveyard can’t be that far below the surface.”  I honestly never thought I’d say this this (stutterer!) early in his career, but I think Mauer’s going to be a bargain next year.  Assuming he falls into the 10th round or later, he’s worth the gamble at catcher for 2012, right?  I mean, even if he only gets 100 games and hits .300, it’s worth the ulcer, isn’t it?  I think so.  With that said (yeah, here comes opposite talk), I’m sure glad I haven’t drafted him the last two years in any league.  He hit 3 homers this year.  As in between 2 and 4.  Jesus Montero has that many in 10 games.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw this weekend in fantasy baseball:

Jason Kubel – Probably done for the year.  In related news, Morneau, Mauer and Kubel have a fishing trip planned for the first weekend of October and all Twins fans have a hunting trip planned for the same weekend.

Tsuyoshi Nishioka – Done for the year.  Back date that to March.  Are the Twins fielding a team this final week and a half?

Brian Dinkelman – 4-for-5 yesterday and 7 for his last 9.  When your team’s good news is Brian Dinkelman, you got a big fish that needs some frying or whatever that cliche is.

Ryan Howard – Out until Thursday, which will probably mean he plays only sporadically even after that.  Ross Gload will fill in.  Army with harmony…Dave, drop a Gload on him!

Justin Verlander – 8 IP, 0 ER, 6 baserunners, 6 Ks as he won his 24th game yesterday.  That’s pretttay pretttay good.  Tough year to be Jered Weaver.

Joakim Soria – Didn’t pitch this weekend.  Now all the Royals’ 9th inning eggs are hoping for some good Holland days.

Pablo Sandoval – Hit two homers in one inning.  When you throw Sandoval two meatballs, he jumps on them.

David Price – Left after 4 innings after being hit in the chest by a liner.  Should be fine for his next start, which he will throw while wearing knight’s armor.

Desmond Jennings – 2-for-5 with a steal.  In roughly a third of the season, he has 9 homers and 18 steals.  Yeah, go ahead and times those by three.

Brandon Morrow – 8 IP, 0 ER, 5 baserunners, 8 Ks.  There should a glossary term for these K-heavy pitchers that are a total tease.  You suggest in the comments, thank you.

Adam Lind – 2-for-3 with two homers.  Be nice if he went on one of his crazy 6 homers in 8 games binges.  Cust kayin’.

Joe Saunders – 8 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 9 baserunners, 3 Ks.  He came through big time for my borderline starter post from Thursday.  (And Matt Harrison too.  Brad Lincoln, not so much.)

Paul Goldschmidt – 2-for-3 with a homer.  With 8 homers and 45 Ks in 40 games this year, he’s either gonna be something special next year or a flat-out bomb.

Mark Reynolds – Homered on Friday and Saturday, then was beaned in the head by a Ervin Santana pitch.  His CT scan came back negative, then the CT scan picked up Johnny Bananas and carried him to the other side of The Gulag.

James Loney – 5-for-6 yesterday and two homers in two games on Friday and Saturday.  I don’t like saying to pick up Loney, so if I wink, it means pick him up.  Wink.

Zack Greinke – 7 IP, 1 ER, 5 baserunners, 10 Ks.  I have two things to note, neither of which is that interesting.  First, I can’t believe Greinke is barely under a 4.00 ERA in the NL.  Second, I can never remember if it’s a H or a K with Zack.  From writing 1200+ words five days a week about these players, I can spell Saltalamacchia without looking it up.  I could be in a baseball spelling bee and kick serious ass and get tripped up by spelling Zack.  I feel like there should be a standard Zack spelling.  H or K, that’s it.

Erick Aybar – 4-for-4, 2 homers, 5 runs, 4 RBIs and now hitting .434 in September.  Looks like a classic Septacular performance.

Adrian Gonzalez – It was revealed this weekend that he’s only taking batting practice every other day due to weakness in his shoulder.  He said, “(The weakness is) fine.  It’s the end of the year.”  Um, maybe in San Diego.

Mike Aviles – 2-for-5, 3 RBIs with his 2nd homer in three games.  Sawx kinda have to win games and Aviles, McDonald, Salty, Scutaro and Conor Jackson (when I saw his name as C. Jackson in the box score, I thought it was Curtis Jackson) are playing and Wakefield is pitching.   Up the team salary to $300 million.

Brandon Beachy – 4 1/3 IP, 4 ER and 8 earned in his last 9 2/3 IP, 8 ER.  The good news for people who like bad news is he’s tired.   The other bad news is he might struggle next year if the Braves don’t shut him down.

Jason Heyward – 3-for-4 as he hit 8th in front of the pitcher.  He should consider apologizing to Fredi for whatever transgression he did to him or his family.  Meanwhile, pray he doesn’t hit three homers in one game in the playoffs and get on everyone’s radar again.

Manny Acosta – Closed out yesterday’s game while Parnell worked the 8th.  Honestly, I think the Mets are going to get a closer in the offseason and don’t really care who gets the ball in the ninth right now.  It’s not like they’re grooming anyone.

Chien-Ming Wang – 6 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 6 baserunners, 5 Ks vs. the Marlins’ Brad Hand.  For a change of pace, this game saw Wang beating Hand.

A.J. Pierzynski – 4-for-5, 4 RBIs and 2 homers.  He reminded me of this classic post by Rudy.

Bryan LaHair – 1-for-3 yesterday and a homer on Saturday.  He should be playing every day, but he’s not.  I feel like someone should write a song titled, “The 28-Year-Old Rookie.”  Belle and Sebastian, where you at?

Jordan Pacheco – Batted third yesterday and went 0-for-4, but is hitting .320 over the last week with a homer.  He did so little in Triple-A this year, it’s kinda comical (3 homers, 2 steals, .278).  Guess if you’re really hogtied in a very deep league, you can take a look.

Allen Craig – 3-for-4, 2 homers.  Before this game, he hadn’t done much since he started, uh, starting.  But maybe this is the beginning of something.  Only Miss Cleo knows for sure.

Matt Holliday – Inferred here first after reading shizz elsewhere, it sounds like Holliday’s done for the year.

Mariano Rivera – Tied Trevor Hoffman’s save record.  Right after he breaks the record, the Yankees announced Bobby Parnell would take over as closer.