Fantasy Baseball Advice

Last week we went over the fantasy baseball busts of 2008 and yesterday we went over 20 best draft picks for the hitters in 2008. Today, we go over the best value for their 2008 draft picks — the pitchers. The top 20 best draft picks of 2008 were figured out the same way I figured out the busts, using Rudy “Point Shares” Gamble’s fantasy baseball player rater. You’re not going to see someone such as Brandon Webb on this list, because he was drafted high and supposed to perform well. The players on this list are late round gold nuggets found between the turd nuggets. In each entry, I put the Average Draft Position (ADP) and the Minutes of Erection (MOE) metric, which I made up to illustrate how much you enjoyed owning these fantasy baseball pitchers. Anyway, here’s the 20 best draft picks of 2008, the pitchers:

20. Joe Saunders - If owning Saunders caused you to have an erection that lasted longer than forty-five seconds, you should see a doctor. ADP, 330 — MOE, 0:45

19. John Danks - Danks turned out to be a solid contributor for the back end of a fantasy staff. *laughing a la Beavis and Butthead* I said, “staff.” ADP, Undrafted — MOE, 2:57

18. Grant Balfour - I don’t want to focus too long on the math of this because that’s Rudy’s job, but, according to Point Shares, Grant Balfour gave you .47 points in the standings. To compare, Carlos Marmol, Kazmir and Jenks are a few guys who had good seasons, but gave you less value. ADP, Undrafted — MOE, 4:01

17. Jon Lester - Lester’s season was so good it forced Lance Armstrong back out of retirement. Nobody steals Lance’s cancer-surviving thunder! ADP, 274 — MOE, 6:30

16. Derek Lowe - Turned in a solid year in a contract* year. *For Dodgers, contract refers to what STD you catch from Alyssa Milano. ADP, 182 — MOE, 7:42

15. Brad Lidge - I hope he breaks Gagne’s record of consecutive saves. That’s not a joke or sarcasm. I really do. These are the things I care about. ADP, 167 — MOE, 10:27

14. Justin Duchscherer - Too bad he’s sporting a porcelain hip. ADP, 331 — MOE, 14:59

13. Kerry Wood - At the draft, you said to your friend, who’s a Cubbies fan, “You may as well put Wood directly on your DL now.” Who’s laughing now, dooode? ADP, 312– MOE, 22:00

12. Edinson Volquez - Mock Draft Central says Volquez went undrafted in 2008, but like Cueto the other day on our bust list, Edinson was drafted in all of my leagues. I told you to draft him about a dozen times in the preseason. ADP, Undrafted — MOE, 27:03

11. Mike Mussina - I didn’t pickup Mussina in any league. That’s not to say I was right, but when a 39-year-old dude declines for five years then picks it up suddenly, I don’t buy into it. ADP, 332 — MOE, 9:20

10. Joakim Soria - Is it JO-akim? JOKE-im? Why doesn’t ESPN have his last name’s pronunciation on his player card? It’s like 1776 up in this piece with no love for the Royals. ADP, 158 — MOE, 29:47

9. Ricky Nolasco - My twelve-year-old cousin texted me this, “GNBLFY, but thought U were crackaz when U told me 2 pick up Nolasco. Thx. BTW, U C RR/RW? Bananas is in trouble! L8r.” NP. ADP, Undrafted — MOE, 33:51

8. CC Sabathia - In April, it seemed like Sabathia was going to weigh down your team, then he ended up anchoring it. (<– Play on words, boyz!) ADP, 53 — MOE, 37:50

7. Mariano Rivera - I’ve mentioned this before, but I don’t think I ever got my answer. Why does every other closer generally go by his last name and Rivera goes by Mariano? Out of respect? Maybe, but people didn’t call Eck, “Dennis.” Someone post the answer in the comments. Thanks! ADP, 101 — MOE, 44:27

6. Ervin Santana - Of course there’s a Santana on this list. Ervin? Zoinks! ADP, 330 — MOE, 44:30

5. Ryan Dempster - Coming off back-to-back lackluster seasons as a closer, he’s lights out as a starter. When I say, “No rhyme…” You say, “No reason…” “No rhyme…” “No reason…” “No rhyme…” “No reason…” ADP, 331 — MOE, 44:41

4. Rich Harden - Harden gave the value of someone drafted 2nd round. Now, if you did draft him in 2nd round, the reactions at the draft would’ve been split between committing you to a psych ward and banning you from the league, but imagine the end of the year reactions. Your leaguemates would be searching your room for Biff Tanner’s sports book. (BTW, am I the only one who thinks about time travel at least once a day? I am? Okay, moving on…) ADP, 210 — MOE, 53:15

3. Roy Halladay - According to Point Shares, Halladay gave you more than a 10 point swing in the standings. So if you won with 70 points carrying Halladay, you would’ve only had 60 with the average pitcher off waivers. ADP, 98 — MOE, 59:01

2. Tim Lincecum - 265 Ks in 227 innings. Mmm…. That’s like looking at a young Suzanne Somers. (BTW, and sorry to freak you out like this, but Suzanne Somers is 62 years old. That’s a GILF.) ADP, 119 — MOE, 59:50

1. Cliff Lee - Your leaguemate, “Of course you won. You had Cliff-freakin-Lee!” Yup, that’s what Cliff Lee did to people this year. ADP, Undrafted — MOE, 59:59

On Monday I finished up the hitters recap with the 21 - 40 outfielders for 2008. That’s after going over the top 20 catchers, top 20 1st basemen, top 20 2nd basemen, top 20 shortstops, top 20 3rd basemen and the top 20 outfielders for 2008. Phew… Now exhale through your nose, Downward-Facing Dawg, and inhale as we look at the top 20 starters for 2008. As we went forty deep with the outfielders, we’re going to need to go forty deep with the starters. The hitters showed a definite lack of offense in 2008 so that must mean the top 20 starters are deep with quality choices, right? Look at the big brain on generic italicized voice. I based these rankings on the ESPN Player Rater, which I don’t fully agree with, but I want the rankings to be as neutral as possible. For a better player rater, download our fantasy baseball player rater. Anyway, here’s the top 20 Starters for 2008 in fantasy baseball and how they compared to where we originally ranked them:

1. Roy Halladay - When Borowski, Todd Jones and a host of other schmohawks missed the bowl for three months straight, Halladay’s 246 innings of a 2.78 ERA and 1.05 WHIP was just the kind of disinfectant your staff’s bathroom needed.  Preseason Rank #13, Preseason Predictions:  15-7/4.00/1.25/120, Final Numbers:  20-11/2.78/1.05/206

2. CC Sabathia - Nearly topped the list and he had an awful April. Take a look at this ‘pert roundtable. People were falling over themselves to unload Sabathia. He was shelled in the playoffs! He threw 600 trillion pitches in ‘07! He looks like a fat Dontrelle and now he’s pitching like one! Sometimes it’s best to hold tight. Preseason Rank #4, Preseason Predictions:  20-9/3.40/1.15/210, Final Numbers:  17-10/2.70/1.11/251

3. Tim Lincecum - Here’s a guy I warned everyone about in the preseason. Am I dumb or prejudiced against the non-mustachioed? Probably a bit of both, but I worried Lincecum would struggle a bit on a decimated team. A lack of offense when coupled with a very young pitcher… Anyway, he did fine. Obviously. Dur. Preseason Rank #31, Preseason Predictions:  10-7/ 3.75/1.25/170, Final Numbers:  18-5/ 2.62/1.17/265

4. Cliff Lee - You had to disregard everything you’ve ever learned in your life, including basic math, to trust Lee to rank this high. That’s why Karabell, the Forrest Gump of fantasy baseball analysts, was the only ‘pert to predict this. Somewhere in a rough, tumbleweeded neighborhood, Hater Bell shakes his fist at the gray sky. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  22-3/2.54/1.11/170

5. Johan Santana - Didn’t it seem like he had a mediocre year? I mean it was mediocre for him with yawnstipating wins, but it’s still top five for starters. That’s not really mediocre. Actually that’s not at all mediocre. Weird how The NY Media misinterprets things, right?  Jeter might be the tenth best shortstop in the majors and you’d think he discovered a neverending box of Dunkin’ Donuts Munchkins™. While Johan throws 200+ Ks and a 2.53 ERA in 234.1 IP, and people are wondering if he’s lost it. Preseason Rank #2, Preseason Predictions:  18-9/3.10/1.06/240, Final Numbers:  16-7/2.53/1.15/206

6. Cole Hamels - Hamels was my preseason Cy Young pick; he might have had a chance with some more run support. He finished with the second best WHIP amongst Major League starters, top ten for ERA and 66th in run support. For some runs next year, maybe he can brushback his opponents and hope they do the same to Victorino. Preseason Rank #7, Preseason Predictions:  20-7/3.20/1.10/210, Final Numbers:  14-10/3.09/1.08/196

7. Brandon Webb - Another stellar year for Webb as he led the NL in Wins. Though Webb does go through long stretches where he’s nearly unusable. In fact, if you throw out April and July, Webb had a 3.86 ERA in ‘08. That’s right; Webb’s “blah” with makeup on it, otherwise known as “pretty blah.” Preseason Rank #3, Preseason Predictions:  19-7/3.10/1.20/190, Final Numbers:  22-7/3.30/1.20/183

8. Ervin Santana - Going into the 2008, Ervin was homeschooling for the better part of two years while making Wandy Rodriguez seem like a Road Scholar. Then 2008 came and Ervin myth busted his way to solid Home/Away Splits. Now if he can figure out what the deal is with Mentos and Diet Coke. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  16-7/3.49/1.12/214

9. Dan Haren - Post All-Star break numbers were once again, “Win a Date With a Tad Mediocre.”  Preseason Rank #8, Preseason Predictions:  17-9/3.60/1.20/210, Final Numbers:  16-8/3.33/1.13/206

10. Ryan Dempster - What ESPN said in February, “Dempster has little value as a starter…” What I said to ESPN, “Stop sending me your stupid magazine. I don’t read it.” What ESPN said, “It’s free.” What I said, “I still don’t want it and why are you calling me at 6 o’clock in the morning on a Saturday?” What ESPN said, “To tell you about ESPN Total Access Rewards!” What I said, “I don’t want ESPN Total Access Rewards.” What ESPN said, “In order to get the free magazine, you have to sign up for ESPN Total Access Rewards.” I said, “I hate you.” Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  17-6/2.96/1.21/187

11. Rich Harden - “They call me, Mr. Glass” ended up staying healthy and putting together a solid year. Just remember, he had a healthy year this year and still only pitched 148 innings. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  10-2/2.07/1.06/181

12. Ricky Nolasco - In 95.2 Post-All-Star break innings, Nolasco struckout 98 against 12 walks. I’ll put it another way. Nolasco walked twelve batters in fourteen games. Here’s that same information with numerals instead of words and exclamation points. Nolasco only walked 12 guys in 14 games!!!  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  15-8/3.52/1.10/186

13. Mike Mussina - 1 ACROSS, Yankees Pitcher falls just short of 300 wins and won’t make the Hall of Fame. (FYI, Tommy John doesn’t fit.)  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  20-9/3.37/1.22/150

14. Derek Lowe - In 2007 and 2008, Lowe struckout 147 and gave up 194 hits both years. Elias Sports Bureau said this is the first time in history a pitcher has given up exactly the same amount of hits and struckout the same amount two years in a row. Okay, they didn’t say that, but it sounds like something they would say. Here’s some more things Elias could’ve said around their office last week, “For the first time since July, Ralph in Human Resources tried to fool Parking Enforcement with a homemade handicapped sign.” “For the third time in less than a week, our CEO called Jayson Stark a ‘pain in the ass,’” and “For the first and last time, John in Accounting ate Mexican for lunch.” Preseason Rank #33, Preseason Predictions:  15-7/3.90/1.30/140, Final Numbers:  14-11/3.24/1.13/147

15. Roy Oswalt - Grey’s 12-year-old cousin texted this in, “Chillax about Oswalt’s year end numbers lQQking like he continued his eversoslight steps backwards. In the 2nd half, he was DOMINANT. l8r…” Preseason Rank #10, Preseason Predictions:  15-7/3.60/1.22/150, Final Numbers:  17-10/3.54/1.18/165

16. Ben Sheets - Somehow he went the whole season without pulling a Kotchman. Matter of fact, Kotchman went the whole season without pulling a Kotchman. Luckily, Furcal picked up the “Pulling a Kotchman” slack. Preseason Rank #32, Preseason Predictions:  60-Day DL, Final Numbers:  13-9/3.09I/1.15/158

17. Edinson Volquez - I told you to pick Volquez up on March 18th so you were forewarned. But I didn’t have the foreskin to predict quite how well he would perform. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  17-6/3.21/1.33/206

18. James Shields - The credo goes, third year starters (aka starters with 40 - 70 starts of Major League experience) are most likely to breakout. As far as credos go, that’s as good as any. I love Shields because he made good on the credo.  Preseason Rank #18, Preseason Predictions:  14-6/3.75/1.10/185, Final Numbers:  14-8/3.56/1.15/160

19. Chad Billingsley - See Shields, James or one quarter of an inch above. I like Billingsley even more going forward, but there will be plenty of time in the offseason for me to extol (<–15th Century Word of the Day!). Preseason Rank #36, Preseason Predictions:  16-7/3.20/1.30/190, Final Numbers:  16-10/3.14/1.34/201

20. Daisuke Matsuzaka - In the spirit of globalization, I had my Dice-K comments translated into Japanese then translated back to English for our Razzball readers. Here’s what I was left with, “Dice-K’s outlying numbers warned of impending tsunami. Luckily Red Sox bring Hello Kitty toaster and make bread of opponents.  Sayonara.” Preseason Rank #23, Preseason Predictions:  17-7/4.00/1.25/200, Final Numbers:  18-3/2.90/1.32/154

James ‘Dr. Freeze’ Andrews - bah!  Not when Canada’s finest caribou and shoulder surgeon can do it on the Canadian dime (worth $.09). Erik Bedard will go under the knife for what they are calling exploratory surgery. How appropriate for a pitcher that shares his name with a Viking. Hopefully, it turns out as well as Carlos Silva’s trip to the doctor when his rectal bleeding was diagnosed as his body repelling the massive amounts of salsa he’s eaten throughout the season. Stay tuned, this surgery could effect Bedard’s 2009. The USS Mariner has already sunk, and now they have to start worrying about next year being lost to sea. Anyway, here’s what else we saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Chris Volstad - 8 IP, 4 hits, 1 ER. The Astros quadrupled their hit total of the last two games. Zoinks!

Asdrubal Cabrera - HR yesterday. Since I told you to pickup Asdrubal, he continues to be productive.

Josh Beckett - Red State Jeter threw eight innings of three hit baseball against the Rays. Encouraging sign going forward or he just likes facing the Rays? You make the call!

Shaun Marcum - Left the start with forearm numbness. Drop him. He’s done.

Fernando Tatis - Done for the year with a separated shoulder. Right now his mom must be a praying Tatis — oofa!

Ryan Shealy - Don’t skim past this name. HR yesterday and… I see you skimming. Stop! He has five home runs in the last four games. Ride the hot streak.

CC Sabathia/Prince Fielder - CC finally got his first loss.  Fielder finally is on a roll again hitting 2 HRs.  Can’t you see - it’s a see-saw.  Only one can be high at a time.

Fernando Rodney - Blew a 2 run-lead in the 9th without registering an out.  It’s become so commonplace for him to blow saves that we call Kazaam whenever he comes in.  Because if he’s pitching, it’s automatically going to be a non-save situation for the Tigers.

Todd Jones - We miss you.

Dan Haren - Nothing like pitching against SF to right the ship.  9 IP, 0 ER, 12 Ks.  The Giant offense is the equivalent of a rebound fuck….

Matt Cain - 7 IP, 7 Ks, 2 ER. After struggling for a little over a month, just needed to face the Diamondbacks to look decent. Still wouldn’t trust him going forward.

James Parr - 4 1/3 innings, 4 earned runs and 10 hits as Parr hit a bogey.

Brandon Morrow - 4 IP, 6 ER. What frustrates me further, I told everyone not to go near him when he returned. Then he threw a great game against the Yankees and seemed to be properly stretched out. Surprise, he’s not.

Derek Lowe - Since an awful May, he’s been amazing.  127 IP, 11 W, 2.90 ERA, 1.02 WHIP.  With his sinker working so well, Torre was tempted to call him White Wang, but that name’s already taken by someone in nearby San Fernando Valley.

Justin Duchscherer is headed to the DL with a bad hip. (That’s the exact medical term. I checked WebMD.) How about them Athletics?! Talk about an ironic team name. Bobby Crosby, Street, Chavez, formerly Harden, etc. How about un-Athletic? What, too obvious? Whateves. You add the clever for once. Duchscherer might come back in two weeks. There’s only five weeks left! You’re going to wait around for this schmohawk? Cut bait as they say on the Country Music Channel or The Nashville Network or whatever channel Jeff Foxworthy’s hosting a show on. Oh, wait, that’s Fox. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Derek Lowe - 6 1/3 innings, 1 ER. I’m on him for home matchups like Alyssa Milano’s on Valtrex.

James Loney - HR yesterday. Headed to Philly for a weekend series. Stock up on your Dodgers’ bats. Loney’s probably one that is out there.

Greg Smith - 6 IP, 0 ER. Against the Mariners. It’s like being able to hit the ocean with a golf ball from a pier.

Yunel Escobar - HR yesterday. If he gets to ten home runs and five steals with a .290 average, you’re going to look at him next March and think about drafting him. Remember the five months of yawnstipation. Remember.

Brandon Webb/Cliff Lee - 19th and 18th wins respectively. Now disrespectfully, Cliff Lee?! Holy heffin’ hey, are you serious? He’s 29 and his K/BB ratio tripled this year.  What the eff? Imagine if the Indians were good and hadn’t been Pronk’d! Cliff Lee would be looking at a 40 win season and free blow from Drew Carey for life.

Hideki Matsui - First home run since returning three games ago. This is a win for Godzilla, anime and porn.

Joey Votto/Jay Bruce - Both homered yesterday. They should totally watch Beaches together, because Votto’s totally Barbara Hersey and Jay Bruce is Bette Midler. While Jay Bruce is rocking out on Broadway in a musical about Otto Titsling, Votto’s living for some detached jerk and biding his time until he has a baby. But things only appear wonderful for Bruce. His spouse is two-timing on him, he can’t have a kid and he’s butt freakin’ ugly. Wait, I was all ready for a good cry when I realized this was supposed to have something to do with Votto, Bruce and fantasy baseball? Oh, that’s right! Votto’s just as good as Bruce, but he’s getting cold there in Bruce’s shadow.

I can picture Tim Kurkjian’s voice cracking, Is this a Great Game, or What?!. Joe Morgan won’t be invited. Bill James will throw out the first pitch. A nickname like Baseball Crank will be worn as a badge of honor. Someone will argue that Pat Burrell isn’t really that bad of a baseball player and make a perfectly logical argument. Everyone will be wearing a lazy frown yet be completely happy. So why does Santana start the All-Star Game in our world instead of in The Real World where he wasn’t even invited? (Not The Real World: Hollywood, which lost two key members of its cast, and now sputters towards a reunion.) Quality Starts this year: Haren, Hudson and Lincecum are tied for first with 15. Santana (it’s safe to say Santana would’ve got another QS last night if not for rain) is #2 with 14. Webb and Volquez win the bronze with 13. Yet, Haren and Santana are tied for 15th in wins with 8. Listen to some with 10 wins — Lohse, Nolasco, Cook, Padilla, Floyd (not Bannister) and, of course, Andy Sonnanstine. Okay, but what does this have to do with fantasy baseball? Everything, you schmohawk! If any potential trade partner thinks any of those guys gets to twenty wins, then you politely agree and rob them blind. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Dustin McGowan - Placed on the McDL. I’d look McElsewhere. He’ll be an interesting sleeper (as they say in the biz, whatever biz this is) next spring.

Scott Linebrink - It was annonced he would fill-in for closer. So, of course, Dotel got the save. Yeah, that works. Thanks. If I was looking for a few saves, Dotel would now be the man I’d target.

Ryan Spilborghs - To the DL with an oblique strain. Doctor, I have an oblique problem. Well, Ryan, why don’t you just be more specific? Oofa!

Derek Lowe - Almost pitched a perfect game. Sounds like Alyssa Milano’s giving herpes to someone tonight.

Scott Hairston - HR yesterday. Guess how many he has. Go ahead. I’ll wait. Wrong! 14. You ready for a double dose of brain freeze? You would’ve got better production if you drafted the Hairstons instead of the Uptons. Ow, my temples hurt! Wait, here comes the knuckler — ESPN: The Magazine should’ve featured the Hairston brothers on their baseball issue instead of the Uptons. Stop, Grey, my eyes are bleeding from these sentences that make no sense!

Moises Alou - Still battling nicks and crannies. Probably has something to do with him being 84-years-old and older than his father.

Nick Markakis - I am Sparkakis!

Jonathan Sanchez - Got a tough break when the rain came and forced his start to get cut short. He could’ve went another two innings. Or not! What am I, psychic?

Carlos Quentin - 2 HRs. I see no reason why he can’t hit 5 home runs a month from now until the end of the year aka 35 HRs total also also known as 14 more HRs.

Garrett Atkins - 2 HRs. Now has 14 on the year, I say he ends with 27. That’s less than most think, making him a Buy Low of Moderate Proportions.

Mark Mulder - In the forums, Peter had this to say, “Mulder recorded one out in the top of the 1st, walked 2, then left the game with an injury…. On the bright side, neither of the runners scored… so it is arguably Mulder’s most effective start since May 17, 2006.” It’s funny, because it’s true.

Josh Hamilton - He gets high on K-Rod’s supply.

Juan Rivera - Hit his third home run and this is officially the last time I will mention him. Some other guys I officially stopped talking about this season are Carlos Quentin, Josh Hamilton, Dioner Navarro, Shane Victorino, Eugenio Velez… Okay, they weren’t all gems. (BTW, Velez just got recalled and Bochy said something like this (I don’t feel like looking up the exact quote), “Velez might get to pinch run, but that’s about it.” Seriously, he said something like that. Ouch, right? What? Without the actual quote it loses its oomph? You look it up then.)

Lance Berkman - 2 steals, now 14 on the year. Berkman is making a strong case for Fantasy MVP, if they gave out an award for that shizz. His numbers so far 76/22/70/.348/14. He will absolutely kill some fantasy owners next year when he’s drafted too early.

Jeff Francoeur - You ride out Player A for three months through the worst slump of their career, then you drop Player A on Friday when they are demoted to the minors. Now Player A returns three days later and, in his second game back, he hits a home run. Do you pick up Player A again? Or do you risk watching Player A perform well on someone else’s team? Within the answer to this question is your very existence. If you pick up Player A again, you’re the type to give people lots of chances, including girlfriends. Sure, she slept with my best friend, but she was thinking about me. Sometimes this leads to people walking all over you. You’ll think you’re happy, but you won’t actually be for your entire life. Now if you’re the type that doesn’t pick up Player A, you’re tough as nails, and no one walks over you. You also distance yourself from people and don’t cut people enough slack. We broke up because she talked during the opening fifteen minutes of Goodfellas. NOBODY’S allowed to talk during that. You’ll probably find yourself cold and alone for the rest of your life. And that my friends is the Intro to the Tao of Frenchy. You’re welcome.