Fantasy Baseball Advice

Because things are always changing in fantasy baseball, it’s impossible to do a definitive list of the top hundred overall for 2008 or for any year for that matter. Tomorrow, Pujols could announce he’s having his surgery to repair his injured arm and be gone for the season or he could announce that he’s having his arm replaced with an aluminum bat and he moves to number one overall. Nevertheless, here’s my 2008 fantasy baseball top 100 as of right now. (BTW, download Rudy Gamble’s projections for 2008 here.)

1. Alex Rodriguez – Dur. Projections: 120/42/130/15/.305
2. Jose Reyes – Find thirty homers later in the draft. You ain’t finding 70 steals. Projections: 130/14/65/.295/70
3. Matt Holliday – Great hitter + Coors = Fantasy Stud. Projections: 110/40/125/.310/10
4. David Wright – The Mets have a penchant to run. Don’t see Wright slowing down just yet. Projections: 115/34/120/.310/20
5. Hanley Ramirez – I’ve already explained my hesitation for Hanley. Projections: 110/17/85/.295/45
6. Chase Utley – Could he give the Phillies the MVP trifecta this year? I give him 50/50 odds. Projections: 120/32/115/.325/12
7. Johan Santana – I’m not drafting him here, but that’s already been covered. Projections: 21-5/240/2.50/.95
8. Jake Peavy — Weak hitting division, extreme pitching park, ranked #1 as last year’s fantasy player. I’m not drafting him either. (BTW, why are people ranking Peavy so much lower than Santana on their draft cheatsheets? Does everyone really think Santana will win 25 games? He’ll be great, but c’mon. Don’t believe the hype.) Projections: 20-5/230/2.75/1.05
9. Miguel Cabrera – Everything but steals. Projections: 110/37/125/.325/4
10. Prince Fielder – Him and Howard are the only ones with good odds to hit 50. Projections: 115/50/125/.285
11. Ryan Howard – See Fielder, Prince. Projections: 100/50/140/.275
12. Carl Crawford – He’s still young and he can still hit 30 home runs. Projections: 105/25/85/.305/50
13. Grady Sizemore – This is probably my preseason AL MVP. But we’ll get to that. Projections: 120/35/85/.290/30
14. Alfonso Soriano – He’s a Latin 32, but doesn’t seem to be slowing down or losing power. He might have the best preseason shot at 40/40. Projections: 115/35/75/.280/20
15. Jimmy Rollins – He’s not hitting 30 homers again. Projections: 130/22/70/.290/35
16. David Ortiz – Eligibility concerns have me passing on him, but I could understand this pick. Projections: 115/40/120/.310
17. Alexis Rios – This is who I want in every league. I have his projections at 120/32/110/.300/25. Next year he’s a first rounder. Chew on that.
18. Carlos Lee – He’s good every year and he plays. That’s reliability. Projections: 90/35/120/.295/7
19. Vladimir Guerrero – Maybe he can get an aluminum leg from Pujols’s doctor. Projections: 105/32/125/.315/3
20. Mark Teixiera – You can count on certain stats, but that includes sub-par first halfs. Projections: 105/35/115/.300
21. Nick Markakis – I will have him on every team I can. Projections: 100/27/115/.300/20 with the skill set to go way above and beyond these numbers.
22. Ryan Braun – I already told you why not to buy into the hype. Projections: 100/27/105/.280/12
23. B.J. Upton – I don’t see a huge step forward from last year. But 30/30 would still be sweet. Could easily be a 1st round guy next year. Projections: 100/30/85/.280/27
24. Albert Pujols – A high-grade tear in his elbow? A team with nothing to play for. He might not see July. Projections: 55/22/70/.330/2 and he hangs them up by July 4th.
25. Ichiro Suzuki – He’ll be batting .330 in September and I’ll still be glad I didn’t draft him. You don’t have to turn your average to eleven. Projections: 110/10/65/.330/45
26. Carlos Beltran – Is it me or is this round filled with landmines? Projections: 100/27/110/.270/18
27. Lance Berkman – A lock for 90/35/110/.280.
28. C.C. Sabathia – It’s let’s start a pitching run. Projections: 20-9/210/3.40/1.15
29. Brandon Webb – Easily could be in the top ten at the end of the year. Projections: 19-7/190/3.10/1.20
30. Erik Bedard – I give you permission to now draft a starter, if you really must. Projections: 16-9/230/3.30/1.10
31. Aramis Ramirez – Last year’s numbers aren’t indicative of ’08. Projections: 95/37/120/.305
32. Troy Tulowitzki – The Polish are hard workers. I expect Tulo to make his people proud. Projections: 115/25/80/.280/10
33. Adam Dunn – I love guys that are guaranteed 40 homers. They give you runs, RBIs and home runs. BTW, Dunn’s only 28. Projections: 100/45/110/.265/7
34. Travis Hafner – I’m probably the only ‘pert ranking Pronk this high, but I think this is the year he puts everything together. He’d be higher if he had some eligibility somewhere. Projections: 100/40/110/.300
35. Jonathan Papelbon – This is where you should draft him if you want him. I don’t. But I do think he’ll be spectacular. Projections: 5-0/90/1.10/.75/45 saves
36. Robinson Cano – My third 2nd basemen off the board. Fark you, Phillips. Projections: 100/25/100/.295/3
37. Derrek Lee – As Rudy Gamble is prone to say, fifteen steals easily turns into five when your game isn’t stealing bases. Projections: 110/30/115/.290/5
38. Garrett Atkins – Third base sure be deep. Projections: 85/34/115/.300
39. Curtis Granderson – Too rich for my blood. I’m out of the Granderson pot. Projections: 115/27/85/.280/25
40. Victor Martinez – I’m taking Cralos Ruiz in the 18th round, not V-Mart in the third or fourth. Projections: 75/25/115/.300
41. Derek Jeter – Girls draft Jeter. Don’t be a girl. Projections: 110/15/70/.315/15
42. Miguel Tejada – He tore up the winter leagues and he’s pissed off because he’s pissing clean. Projections: 90/25/100/.290/3
43. Cole Hamels – The first pitcher I could conceivably draft. Here’s what I said in January, “The future has arrived for the Phillies ace. If he stays away from injury, he battles Peavy for the Cy Young. Not sure how early I’m going to draft him, but he’ll be on one of my ’08 teams.” You see that wisdom there. But then Santana came to the NL. So, sue me, Hamels now comes in third in the Cy Young voting. Projections: 20-7/210/3.20/1.10
44. Aaron Harang – The second pitcher I could conceivably draft. Projections: 17-10/220/3.75/1.15
45. Joe Nathan – If Papelbon’s selection didn’t start a closer run, I suppose here’s a good place to look. I won’t be picking a closer until the second tier. Projections: 6-1/80/1.90/1.00/40 saves
46. J.J. Putz – Very solid number one closer for any team, except for one of mine. Projections: 4-2/80/2.00/.90/40 saves
47. Brandon Phillips – I thought about dropping him into the fifties to prove how much I want you to avoid him. Projections: 80/19/75/.240/25 and is benched in July because his slump is “all in his head.”
48. Brian Roberts – Okay, here’s the problem. One year twenty homers, one year 4. Career average of 29 steals, last year 50. In fantasy baseball, inconsistency breeds contempt. Projections: 105/10/55/.290/30
49. Alex Gordon – I love Gordon this year. Projections: 80/25/90/.280/20
50. Bobby Abreu – Everyone loves Granderson. How about you draft someone that is guaranteeing you good numbers? Projections: 120/15/110/.310/20
51. Torii Hunter – Double I is about as consistent as a 25/20 man can get. Projections: 85/25/100/.275/20
52. Corey Hart – Here’s what I said in January, “He ran like a demonfish in the first half (mostly against righties) and kept consistent power and average throughout. As much as I feel weird saying it, I think Mr. Hart is here to stay. His OBP against righties is kinda icky, but you know who else is like that, Double I. That’s right, Corey Hart is the white man Torii Hunter.” So it’s only fitting they’re next to each other in the rankings. Projections: 95/22/75/.280/25
53. Justin Morneau – Don’t think he walks enough to ever come close to another MVP. Projections: 90/32/105/.275
54. Dan Haren – He’s a bit prone to the home run ball and the move to a more hitter’s friendly park doesn’t help, but all this is negated by weaker offenses in the NL. Draft with confidence. Projections: 17-9/210/3.60/1.20
55. Manny Ramirez – I’m not high on Manny, but come on, he’s still kind of a hitting savant. Projections: 85/32/105/.315
56. Ian Kinsler – I kinda wanna have Kinsler’s babies. Projections: 110/25/70/.270/25
57. Eric Byrnes – Take Shane Victorino thirty spots later. You’re welcome. Projections: 90/20/75/.270/20
58. Chone Figgins – I already explained I don’t draft steals after Reyes. Projections: 105/5/60/.290/45
59. Magglio Ordonez – Here’s what I wrote in January, “Saw something the other day about Mags. It said he won his 1st batting title in ’07. Thought it was weird it said “1st” as if he’s going to win a second.” Projections: 100/30/110/.300
60. Russell Martin – I had to list another catcher eventually, though you should be warned. He’s not going to steal 20 bases this year. Can’t you just draft Carlos Ruiz fifteen rounds later and grab Michael Bourn to get you some steals? Geez, and I thought I was difficult. Projections: 85/20/90/.290/15
61. Francisco Rodriguez – I won’t draft a closer this high, but I will say if I were, I would not be drafting K-Rod. He’s the only top tier closer that worries me. Projections: 6-2/90/3.00/1.25/45 saves
62. Mariano Rivera – I’d rather you started a website razzballsucks.com then draft Rivera, but you do what you do. Projections: 5-2/70/2.75/1.10/40 saves
63. Adrian Gonzalez – I can’t fathom anyone hitting 40 homers in Petco, but he might get to 35. Projections: 90/33/105/.280
64. Paul Konerko – My man Paulie is dropping off draftsheets. Did he screw someone’s Moms and I didn’t hear about it? Projections: 90/35/110/.275
65. Hunter Pence – You’re drunk if you think I’m drafting him, but, ya know, he’s gotta fit in somewhere. Projections: 95/22/75/.290/17
66. Chipper Jones – Yes, he’ll only play in 120 games, but you can make moves in your league to fill in people, right? Projections: 85/25/85/.315/5
67. John Lackey – It’s not that I don’t like him because I think he’s probably going to be my preseason AL Cy Young pick, but I just don’t like AL starters. Projections: 20-5/180/3.00/1.20
68. Justin Verlander – Might be the only American League starter I’ll consider drafting. Projections: 19-7/200/3.75/1.20
69. Rafael Furcal – I would actually consider taking Raffy because his last year made him a bit of a bargain this year. Projections: 110/15/65/.285/35
70. Gary Sheffield – You need some ‘tude on your team. Projections: 90/25/80/15/.285
71. Carlos Pena – I’m predicting he’ll make fantasy owners miserable this year. Projections: 85/22/80/.260 and he falls into a platoon.
72. Josh Beckett – I was down on this schmohawk before the tender back. Now? Not with a ten foot pole. Projections: 18-9/190/3.90/1.20
73. Edwin Encarncion – I’m wild about Edwin even if he’s a total jerkoff. Projections: 75/25/85/.275/15
74. Delmon Young – I stay away from 2nd year players when possible. Delmon’s one guy I’m considering. Projections: 70/20/100/.285/15
75. John Smoltz – He seems like he’s almost as nice a guy as Vernon Wells, right? (BTW, if you need me to tell you about Smoltz, you’ve been in an Afghani cave for too long.) Projections: 16-7/160/3.75/1.22
76. Carlos Guillen – I think he might be the biggest overpriced piece of garbage since Morneau last year. Projections: 95/15/75/.300/8
77. Ryan Zimmerman – And here’s where I pass. Wrist surgery and people are drafting him like it means nothing. Projections: 90/18/90/.275/5
78. Hideki Matsui – Godzilla loves porn and I don’t mind him. So there’s that. Projections: 105/25/100/.295
79. Roy Oswalt – Ks are trending the wrong way, but he’s still very reliable. Take a middle reliever to offset the Ks. Projections: 15-7/150/3.60/1.22
80. Todd Helton – He’s getting to the point where he’s undervalued. Let’s be realistic for a second. He’s not getting you 40 homers anymore, but what he does give you is not dreadful. Projections: 90/15/90/.315
81. Chris “No B” Young – A tall pitcher with back issues concerns me, but I’d take his 22 starts over some guys 32. Projections: 15-5/160/3.00/1.10 and he only pitches in a 150 innings.
82. Carlos Zambrano – In my opinion, any guy that does what he did to Barrett you have to like. Projections: 18-7/210/3.60/1.30
83. John Maine – I love Maine this year. And not just for their lobster – oofa! I will have Maine on at least one team. You should too. Projections: 18-9/210/3.60/1.20
84. Rickie Weeks – This question still lingers, if Clint Barmes, Rocco Baldelli and Rickie Weeks board your cross-country flight, do you get off? Projections: 85/15/50/.260/22
85. Jeff Kent – At some point he’s going to get old, I think it’s coming soon. Act accordingly. Projections: 80/22/90/.300
86. Mike Lowell – His luck with runners on last year was a collision of good fortune and stoopid good fortune. Projections: 75/20/105/.280/3
87. Shane Victorino – I love Victorino. If I were a 300 lb. Hawaiian woman, Victorino and I would be living off the coast of Oahu. Projections: 115/15/60/.280/40
88. Vernon Wells – O, Vernon. Don’t suck this year. Projections: 90/30/90/.280/7
89. Jeff Francoeur – Do you think if Frenchy were popular in 2001 he would have went by Freedom? Projections: 85/25/110/.280/5
90. Chris B. Young – Krispie will frustrate for extended periods of time with swings and misses. Projections: 90/25/70/.245/32
91. Jhonny Peralta – The only thing I don’t like about Peralta this year is the spelling of his first name. He’s a big buh-Buy. Projections: 85/32/105/.270/3
92. Brian McCann – He’s the last catcher of the top one hundred (eff Mauer) so this will be the last time I tell you to draft Carlos Ruiz in the 18th round. Projections: 75/25/105/.285
93. Andruw Jones – Ok, I’m aware he reported to camp looking like Umaga. But he can’t be over the hill yet, can he? Projections: 85/32/110/.250
94. Mike Jacobs – The Marlins will give the Nats a run for most unwatchable team, though I do like Jacobs’s upside. Projections: 70/30/95/.285
95. Jim Thome – You can set your watch to his stats. Projections: 70/30/90/.265
96. Ryan Garko – Garko’s getting overlooked in the drafts I’ve seen. Watch him jump up to the fourth round next year. Projections: 75/27/90/.285
97. Josh Hamilton – Hamilton gets high on life! Projections: 70/27/80/.300/5
98. Brad Hawpe – Here’s what I said in January, “Hawpe will be sensational this year and not hit lefties. He sported a .418 OBP last year against righties. Grab Spilborghs for next to nothing and platoon them yourself, cause Spilborghs had a .426 OBP against lefties. Hawpe/Spilborghs combo projections: 105/35/110/.300/5.” I stand by that.
99. Nick Swisher – He’s pretty. Projections: 95/30/100/.275
100. James Shields – His year end numbers will blow away Kazmir’s. Projections: 14-6/185/3.75/1.10
101. Rich Hill – No top hundred list is complete without a 101st pick. Projections: 18-7/200/3.60/1.15
102. Kelly Johnson – Ok, last one, but only because I hate the way people are passing by Kelly Johnson. Look at these projections: 85/17/65/.275/12, there’s a fifty percent chance those will be better than Rickie Weeks. (BTW, as for the Weeks question above, I get off the plane. You?)

That title make you tongue-tied? Well that’s nothing compared to how tongue-tied most fantasy players get about middle infielders. No positions have fewer bargains in the draft. This post is to make sure you don’t pay scalper rates.

Below is a comparison of middle infielder value comparing Average Draft Position (ADP) on MockDraftCentral.com vs our Point Share rank (+ means # of picks above estimated value, - means picked lower).

(For the full Point Shares rank and explanation, see here. This is based on PECOTA and Shandler projections.)

I’ve created three buckets - Fair Value, Undervalued, and Overvalued - with the cutoff on each side at 15 spots in the ranking (a player is ‘overvalued’ only if his ADP is 15 picks earlier that his Point Shares estimate is his value).

(MockDraftCentral ADP, Point Share Rank, +/-)

Fair Value (within +/- 15 in rank)
Hanley Ramirez (2, 7, +5)
Jose Reyes (4, 14, +10)
Jimmy Rollins (6, 12, +6)
Chase Utley (8, 9, +1)
Brian Roberts (33, 46, +13)
Carlos Guillen (49, 58, +9)
Robinson Cano (64, 74, +10)
Dan Uggla (103, 116, +13)
Placido Polanco (169, 178, +9)
Orlando Hudson (182, 168, -14)

Undervalued
Kelly Johnson (165, 129, -36)
Dustin Pedroia (176, 130, -46)
Khalil Greene (191, 166, -25)
Aaron Hill (192, 153, -39)
Ty Wigginton (214, 151, -63)
Felipe Lopez (219, 174, -45)
Freddy Sanchez (236, 140, -96)
Mark Ellis (264, 189, -75)
Luis Castillo (280, 227, -53)
Asdrubal Cabrera (303,194, -109)

Overvalued
Brandon Phillips (19, 42, +23)
BJ Upton (22, 80, +58)
Derek Jeter (35, 103, +68)
Troy Tulowitzki (45, 68 +23)
Chone Figgins (53, 83 +30)
Ian Kinsler (68, 107, +39)
Miguel Tejada (71, 117 +46)
Rafael Furcal (76, 108, +32)
Michael Young (80, 115, +35)
Edgar Renteria (99, 241, +142)
Rickie Weeks (106, 149, +43)
Howie Kendrick (118, 188, +70)
Orlando Cabrera (123, 211, +88)
JJ Hardy (128, 217, +89)
Jeff Kent (137, 193, +56)
Jhonny Peralta (173, 201, +28)
Kaz Matsui (193, 325, +132)
Stephen Drew (213, 235, +22)

After the first top four middle infielders, all but 4 of the next 14 are overvalued. I think this is because middle infielders are drafted based on upside more than any other position. Or, in other words, they are drafted at picks where they would provide fair value only if they hit their best case on stats vs. their likely case.

Drafting on 30/30, More Likely 20/20: Brandon Phillips, BJ Upton
Drafting to Improve vs. Last Year, More Likely to Repeat at Best: Troy Tulowitzki, Ian Kinsler
Drafting For Big Bounceback, More Likely to Repeat/Slightly Improve: Miguel Tejada, Rafael Furcal
Drafting On Hope, More Likely To Underperform vs. Expectation: Rickie Weeks, Howie Kendrick
Drafting on Yesteryear, More Likely to Produce a Lesser Tomorrow: Derek Jeter, Edgar Renteria, Orlando Cabrera, Jeff Kent

Now I’m not going to invest time in the majority of these cases as at least there is a chance they might produce fair value. Here are three that I think will definitely not produce fair value based on their current ADP:

Derek Jeter – I’m a Yankee fan. Great player both on the field and in the NYC bars. But he’s hit 20+ HR once in the last 5 years. He’s stolen 25+ SB once in the 5 years. He’s hit 80+ RBI once in the last 5 years. Yes, he delivers runs and AVG but the former stat declined from 122 to 102 over the past 3 years and batting average is a slave to regression (good article on it here). Here are the projections I have for him this year: 93/10/66/13/.303. I think he has upside in all those categories but drafting him at #35 means you’ve got him at something much closer to 2005’s 122/19/70/34/.343. Chances he’ll hit that – I’ll say 5%. If you really want a Yankee MI, wait until the 6th or 7th round and take Cano – much better value.

Edgar Renteria – Renteria is an AWFUL middle round pick. He’s ‘Latin’ 32 this year (more likely 34), returning to the league that overmatched him in 2005, and is a prime candidate to see 40 points fall off his batting average (that .332 was a fluke due to a high increase in BABIP). Has hit 15+ HR only once in his career (2000) and hasn’t stolen more than 17 bases since 2003. Prediction: Fails to hit 12 HR or steal 12 SB. Will be on the waiver wire in many 5×5 10 team leagues by mid-season. I’d rather have DP mate Polanco and he’s going 7 rounds later.

Orlando Cabrera – Vlad’s little buddy won’t be seeing as many fastballs and runs now that he doesn’t have the Impaler behind him. Wow that sounded gay. But what’s more distasteful is taking this guy anytime before, say, the 18th round. What’s to like? He hasn’t hit more than 10 HR since 2003. Has stolen 20+ SB the last three years but he’s 33 this year – can’t count on much more than 15 SB. His .301 last year was a fluke – his average the previous two years was .257 and .282. I suppose he’s picked higher based on familiarity but, in this case, familiarity should breed contempt. Another guy likely to find the waiver wire at some point this season in mixed leagues.

So here is my simple MI drafting strategy for you…don’t reach! There are a few guys in the first 7 rounds that you can get at close to fair value. After that, just draft other positions until the 13th round or so and start picking up some of the Undervalued guys (or if an Overvalued guy tumbles). There is enough depth out there that you could pick up guys in the 20th round (Sanchez, Ellis, Wigginton) who’ll likely outperform several of the MIs taken in the middle rounds.

Where to draft the top twenty catchers, first basemen, second basemen and third basemen are all in the books, so now we move onto the shortstops. Top twenty shortstops isn’t as shallow as you might think. For an interesting article on why shortstops are almost as deep outfield, check this out. It’s a great read provided by Lou from Baseball Lab. Unfortunately, Lou is no longer with us. Not dead, just ain’t blogging anymore. His archives are there, and you should check them out some time. Also, our Player Rater for 2007 is here. Onto to the shortstops.

1. Jose Reyes – Check out our top ten overall for projections.

2. Hanley Ramirez – Check out our top ten overall for projections. Also, if you’re so inclined, check out why you should NOT draft Hanley 1st overall.

3. Jimmy Rollins – Check out our top twenty overall for projections.

4. Troy Tulowitzki – Tulo’ll hit second in ’08, which means he scores at least a 110 times if he doesn’t try and carry any deer meat down any stairs. His OBP worries me, but his park excites me. His tendency to strikeout worries me, but the Poles are hard-workers. Projections: 115/25/80/.280/10

5. Derek Jeter – Jeter proves my point that you can’t have an ugly mulatto child. Roseanne Barr and George Foster can give birth to a swimsuit model. Jeter always gets drafted higher than he should, probably because he’s notched Jessicas — Alba, Biel and Rabbit. Projections: 110/15/70/.315/15 and you’re the envy of any girl that is in your league.

6. Miguel Tejada – His consecutive game streak that he fought so hard for makes me think he’s gonna want to shut up anybody who has linked him to steroids. I say he comes back like a potato sack of dragons. Then again, his age and no steroids may not cooperate with his intention. Projections:
90/25/100/.290/3

7. Carlos Guillen – He’ll be over at 1st this year, but as long as he has shortstop eligibility, you’re good to go. See what was said about him at top twenty 1st basemen. For those too lazy to look, I’m not a huge fan.

8. Rafael Furcal – ’07 was a bad year for Furcal, but his ankle injury in the beginning of the year seemed to be to blame. He was overrated last year, but will be underrated this year (then overrated next year, do you see how this goes?). You have my permission to draft him. Projections: 110/15/65/.285/35

9. Michael Young – Young reminds me a lot of Carlos Guillen. You get a little bit of everything and nothing that wonderful. Young is a better bet to hit you .300; Guillen has an outside shot at 17/17 (I refuse to write 20/20 next to his name, when it’s soooo not going to happen.) Projections: 95/12/95/.310/10

10. Jhonny Peralta – He looked a lot better in the first half last year, but he’s still only going to be 26 this year. He’s a definite buy. Projections: 85/32/105/.270/3

11. Edgar Renteria – I likey Renteria. He’ll get you some decent numbers when he’s out there and then when he’s banged up, you fill in with a hot hitter off waivers. Unless you’re in an AL-Only league, then you can’t fill in as easily. Projections: 95/10/75/.295/15

12. Khalil Greene – Don’t think Khalil will ever hit above .275, so act accordingly. Projections: 85/27/100/.260

13. J.J. Hardy – I almost put J.J. above Guillen, but his OBP was a bit atrocious and his pre- and post- All-Star game splits were worse. He sees very few balls he doesn’t like and even fewer strikes. Projections: 85/20/80/.260

14. Ryan Theriot – Great strike-zone discipline and speed. He’s a great buy towards the end of drafts for some cheap speed. Forgo Juan Pierre-types and grab Theriot. Projections: 105/3/50/.290/45

15. Orlando Cabrera – He was not as good last year as you might think considering some experts draft lists. His stats were: 101/8/86/.301/20. Rex “The Hud” Hudler loved him, but he also loves Garrett Anderson. You don’t have to draft Cabrera just because everyone seems to be high on him. Projections: 100/9/65/.280/20

16. Julio Lugo – Here’s what I said at the top twenty 2nd basemen, “The steals were a bit of a surprise on Boston last year. Don’t think the average will be as bad as last year…” Projections: 80/7/65/.270/25

17. Stephen Drew – He’ll be better than he was last year soon, just not sure if you should count on it being in 2008. His OBP was a mess, but he’s only 25 this year. Projections: 65/20/75/.270/15

18. Yunel Escobar – I’m pretty high on Yunel. Well, as high as someone could be and still place him 18th overall at his position. His OBP hovered around .380 for his career in pro ball and he has decent speed and power. He could easily be a poor man’s Renteria. I know, that doesn’t sound that enticing, but there’s a place for that. Projections: 80/10/55/.285/15

19. Jason Bartlett– He’s a poor man’s Theriot. It just keeps getting better and better, huh? You’ll get cheap steals here, and maybe nothing else. Projections: 70/5/45/.270/25

20. Erick Aybar – A poor man’s Jason Bartlett. Projections: 65/2/35/.265/20

Just after the top twenty, obviously many, but I couldn’t fail to mention:

Brandon Wood – He will be a monster slugger one day soon, but his K/BB ratio is just plain ugly. Hopefully he becomes something other than a young Troy Glaus. Projections: sticks with the club out of spring training, then rides the bench on and off for three months totally screwing up his progress. Draft him in ’09.

Tomorrow, we move to the top twenty outfielders for 2008.

In two full seasons, Jeff Francoeur has averaged nearly 500 outs per season. 507 outs in 2006, which put him in the top 100 of all-time, then 477 outs in 2007. Coupled with his lack of walks, Francoeur rarely sees a pitch he doesn’t like. Though he did see a few more pitches in 2007 then he did in 2006, nearly doubling his walk total. Still his 2007 walk total of 43 isn’t a number to be proud of. Delving deeper into Francoeur’s numbers you find more of the same — a free-swinging hacker.

Checking out his baseball-reference page, you find one bright side in all of this. At his age, he compares to Harold Baines. Okay, he’s not being compared to Willie Mays, but Baines had an extremely productive career and took very few walks along the way. Another bright side, he’s only going to be 24 in 2008 and he’s played every Braves game of the last two years. He’s durable and he has some time to hone his strike-zone discipline.

The biggest red flag for me is 19 homers in 2007 after hitting 29 in 2006. It seems his attempt at plate discipline is coming at a price. Granted, his doubles shot up to 40 in 2007, but he does have good speed so these could have been well-placed gapers.

Another concern, he’s a sexy name to breakout. Maybe it’s his boyish good looks, but for some reason his average draft place and his output don’t correspond. Some players annually draft higher than they should (Hey, Jeter!) and Francoeur seems to fall into this category. A dangerous category for someone with his downside. (Jeter, fortunately, doesn’t offer the same downside.)

In 2008, maybe Francoeur will double his walks again…

Maybe his doubles will turn back into homers…

Maybe his BABIP will stay above his average…

Better yet, maybe you should just draft someone that’s a bit more dependable and let someone else worry about these headaches.

1. Hanley Ramirez
.332/125/29/81/51
If it wasn’t for Arod’s insane year, everyone would be talking about the year Hanley Ramirez had. Oh, and you didn’t have to draft him in the 1st round. Look at those numbers again. One homer off a 30/50 season? That’s insane. Experts have been calling for a 30/50 season from Carl Crawford for the last two years. And he’s an outfielder! A 29/50 season from a shortstop? I have a friend who drafted Michael Young right before Hanley went off the board. His emails went something like this, “Michael Young is on pace for a 5/5 season and it’s f**cking July?! Why didn’t I draft Hanley?” Not to mention, Hanley may be Latin but he doesn’t look eight years older than he’s listed at. I’m looking at you Pujols, David Ortiz and Kim Kardashian. C’mon, she’s 27? She looks like she’s in her thirties. Though she’s one of those that will look exactly the same age for fifteen years then, suddenly, she’ll look her age and it will be very disconcerting. Think Suzanne Somers.

2. Jimmy Rollins
.296/139/30/94/41
Let’s look at what he has going for him — speed and enough power for Citizen’s Bank, batting in front of Utes and Howard, an ego the size of a Cheesecake Factory entree, wanting to prove that the media is wrong by turning the best SS award automatically over to Reyes, no longer sporting braids and he gets about 1,000 at-bats a year. What’s not to like? This might be his peak and everyone calls him J-Rol. Can we call a moratorium on shortening names like this? It feels so forced and arbitrary. Man-Ram was cute, I wish sportscasters would shorten Felix Hernandez to F-Her, Arod is fitting, but when is enough enough? Cole Hamels to C-Ham? Justin Morneau to Just-Morn? Carlos Marmol to Car-Ma? Actually, I like Car-Ma and I predict at some point soon Car-Ma will catch up to Ryan Dempster.

3. Jose Reyes
.280/119/12/57/78
Disclaimer: I don’t like the Mets, but I love to watch Reyes play. Makes things difficult when you’re hoping for him to score yet you don’t want anyone on the team to get an RBI. “C’mon, double play from Wright!”

4. Troy Tulowitzki
.291/104/24/99/7
(I had to look up how to spell his last name, but didn’t need to look up Kardashian. Hmm…) Let’s not forget, he started awful. Dreadful. People were talking about bringing back “Deer Meat” Barmes. Yet, he still finished with great numbers. You probably drafted him so low(itzki) that rather than worry about the slow(itzki) start, you dropped him. Hopefully to pick him up again. Assuming you didn’t pay too(lowitzki) much for him, you got value. This might be the last year that you’ll be able to get him so low(itzki). (Sorry if that last paragraph was as confusing to read as it was to write. Sometimes things don’t work, but you get so caught up in them you continue to force a round peg into a square hole.)

5. Carlos Guillen
.296/86/21/102/13
(See Top Ten 1st Basemen) Maybe C-Guile? “C-Guile is sneaky fast!”

6. Derek Jeter
.322/102/12/73/15
If only you had drafted him in the third round of your Fantasy Shortstops Who Date Hot Girls League. Sorry no Jessica Alba category in most leagues, though his conquests must play some sort of role in where he is drafted every year. Cause the numbers are, well, okay. Eighth round okay. Enough has been written about Jeter, moving on…

7. Orlando Cabrera
.301/101/8/86/20
Honestly, I didn’t realize his numbers were so mediocre. See, I live in So-Cal and to watch a City of Anaheim ‘Burb of Los Angeles Angels game, you would think Cabrera had an MVP season. Rex Hudler loves him some Cabrera. Here’s hoping Hud was in your league and took him before you. Nah, that’s just backlash. He had a decent season for an MI spot.

8. Michael Young
.315/80/9/94/13
Michael “I should’ve taken Hanley!” Young had a typical year for Julio Lugo. Not sure how you bat second or third on the Rangers and only score 80 runs. Offensive ballpark and he had over 200 hits. How do you do that? Oh, that’s right Sammy Sosa, Brad Wilkerson, Jason Botts, Marlon Byrd were batting behind him. Ladies and gentlemen, your 2007 Texas Rangers!

9. Edgar Renteria
.332/87/12/57/11
Okay, the RBIs were low, but you didn’t have to pay much to get these numbers. Not to mention, he was injured for about two months so if you slotted in someone else while he was DL-ed, you padded the above stats. But praising Renteria is like praising Vanilla Ice Cream. You know what you’re getting.

10. J.J. Hardy
.277/89/26/80/2
Personally, I like his numbers better than Michael “I should’ve taken Hanley!” Young. His .277 wasn’t crippling, his 26 homers were excellent for SS and his RBIs and runs weren’t bad at all. Not to mention, you had to draft Michael “I should’ve taken Hanley!” Young about twenty rounds earlier. I wouldn’t go as far to say J.J. was dy-no-mite, but you could’ve done worse. Speaking of which…

Tejada had his consecutive game streak broken and you wasted a really high pick and Furcal absolutely killed teams this year. Furcal actually had a bad year for Julio Lugo.