Fantasy Baseball Advice

(NOTE FROM GREY: Last week I sent out feelers to the top baseball team blogs to see if they would be generous enough to write a quick preview for their favorite team. So over the course of the next two weeks, mixed in with your daily fantasy info, you will get some of the most astute, in-depth coverage of teams around the major leagues for the upcoming 2008 season from the people that know these teams best. Each post will include a link to their site, please take time to visit these bloggers’ sites, because these posts are truly the tip of the iceberg for their team knowledge. Now enjoy the 2008 Minnesota Twins preview.)

Starting Pitching

For the first time in a half decade, the Twins will not have ace Johan Santana to count on. He will be missed, but the Twins and their fans have got to move on. With the losses of Carlos Silva and Matt Garza, it is fair to say that there are question marks all over the Twins starting staff. Fortunately, if nothing else, the Twins have a lot of young pitchers with abundant talent and little experience.

The Twins decided to start the season with ace-to-be Francisco Liriano making a few starts in the minor leagues while he continues to rehab from Tommy John surgery. His long-term value to the Twins makes this a no brainer, but expect him up soon. The Twins decided to sign the very hittable Livan Hernandez to eat up innings to save the bullpen some since the rest of the rotation is young. Scott Baker and Boof Bonser are the two pitchers with the most experience. Each has made just 48 career starts, but they will be counted on heavily. Kevin Slowey has an historical 2007 at AAA Rochester, and in September, he replaced Bonser in the rotation. His control  and moxie make him a future star, much in the mold of Greg Maddux. OK, how about Brad Radke? The fifth starter job was won by Nick Blackburn this spring. He will be given a few starts until Liriano is ready, but he has the stuff to stick around if he pitches well. If anything happens, it is important to note that the Twins have plenty of young pitchers who are, or soon will be, ready to contribute at the big league level. Philip Humber, Glen Perkins, Brian Duensing, Anthony Swarzak lead that list.

The Bullpen

The Twins have typically outperformed their Pythagorean win projection, and we wonder why? Well, it is probably because of the strength of their bullpen. They may not have had the offense to have many blowout wins, but when the team is in a close game, the dominance of the Twins bullpen always gives them a chance.

The Twins decided to sign Joe Nathan and keep him around for the next four years. He has been as good as any closer in baseball since the Twins promoted him to the position to start the 2004 season. Pat Neshek and Matt Guerrier were terrific in their set up role last year. This year, the Twins hope for a healthy Jesse Crain, who missed much of the 2007 season after shoulder surgery, as he was excellent to start his career. Juan Rincon looks to bounce back, and Dennys Reyes would love to prove that 2006 was no fluke.

The Twins bullpen will again be a very important part of their success in 2008

Position Players

Joe Mauer and Mike Redmond combine to be a very productive catching duo. Mauer is fully healthy and had a strong spring. If he can stay in the lineup, he is as good as it gets. Justin Morneau was the AL MVP in 2006 and had a strong first half in 2007. What he needs to do is put together a full season. His recently signed six year, $80 million deal is hopefully motivation to do just that. Michael Cuddyer signed a three year deal worth at least $25 million on the same day, and he will again patrol right field where he led the league in assists last year. The team acquired Delmon Young in an offseason trade and he will be set in left field this season. Jason Kubel put together a great second half in 2007 and should build on that as the team’s primary DH. (Craig Monroe will likely see some time as the DH and occasional OF as well) Those are the Twins two through six hitters, and should remain so over the next three or four years. Those five hitters should be very productive.

Adam Everett takes over shortstop duties after Jason Bartlett was traded in the Garza/Young deal. This is a big step down for the Twins offensively, but probably a small step forward defensively as Everett is as good as it gets. Carlos Gomez and Denard Span battled all spring for the starting CF job, and in the end, the Twins went with the very talented Carlos Gomez. He will be the Twins leadoff man as well, providing incredible speed to the top of the order, allowing those two through six hitters plenty of RBI opportunities. Mike Lamb, Everett’s teammate with the Astros the last several seasons, will take over at 3B for the Twins. Last year, Nick Punto put up historically horrible numbers for a player at the hot corner. Lamb’s defense may not be great, but the guy can take good at bats and hit gaps, so he will help the lineup as well. Finally, Brendan Harris, also acquired in the Twins/Rays deal will start the season as the Twins starting 2B. He put up very strong numbers last year as the Rays starting SS, and will move to the other side of the diamond for this season. Expect Punto to get some playing time here as well as Twins rookie Matt Tolbert.

Fantasy Must Haves

Many people are down on this year’s Twins team, but there is a lot of talent. My assumption is that fantasy baseball participants know this. Here are some guys to consider drafting:

Joe Mauer - There are only four, maybe five, catchers that you really want on your team. Joe Mauer is one of them. Even in a “down” season for Mauer, he provides good all around numbers. If healthy, he should reclaim the top spot among catchers.

Justin Morneau - Normally 1B has been one of the strongest positions in a fantasy draft, but this year, that isn’t as much the case. However, Morneau is still one of the guys that you will be happy to have on your team.

Joe Nathan - Over his four seasons as the Twins closer, he has averaged just over 40 saves per season. He has also had an ERA of 1.94 combined over that time.

Delmon Young - His lack of walks makes him a mid-round pick in rotisserie leagues where on-base percentage matters, but I think he could be a monster in points leagues. At just 22 years old, his power and average should continue to rise.

Francisco Liriano - With risk, there can be reward. Sure, in his first year back from Tommy John surgery, there is risk in drafting Liriano. However, let’s not forget that during his 2006 run (12-3, 2.16 ERA, 144 Ks in 121 innings), he was better than Johan Santana. That is how special he could be again.

Sleepers

Jason Kubel - his second half gives Twins fans hope that he has returned to full health and can be the hitter we projected him to be when he first came up to the Twins in 2004.

Michael Cuddyer - Don’t forget that in 2006, he had over 100 runs and 100 RBI. He is forgotten in the lineup that includes so many mashers.

Pat Neshek - Arguably the top set up man in the game, Neshek does well in strikeouts, WHIP and ERA. If anything happened to Joe Nathan, Neshek would be the guy to step in.

Summary

The American League Central is very tough. The Tigers improved themselves and we forget that Cleveland is back with much of the same team that was one win from the World Series. The White Sox and even the Royals will both be very competitive. But don’t sleep on this Twins team. As you can see, there is a lot of talent. Yes, a lot of things have to happen right for this team, but this is the beauty of baseball and its 162 game season. You just never know.

Seth

Seth Stohs runs  www.SethSpeaks.net

With fantasy drafts approaching (some already taking place, it’s imperative we go over the rest of the top outfielders to draft this year in fantasy baseball. If you’re looking for the top twenty of every position for 2008, click here. While I’m admittedly a huge fan of Rudy Gamble’s 2008 player rater/projections tool, I go more on instinct. (BTW, I haven’t lost a league to Gamble since Britney Spears was (supposedly) a virgin. Natch!) So what follows is what will be happening in 2008 for these fantasy outfielders. Don’t believe me; lose your league. I’ll sleep fine.

21. Manny Ramirez – I’ve already written why he should be avoided; click here. People disputed me. People were wrong. When he was 32, his lovable laissez-faire attitude didn’t matter. As time catches up to him, he doesn’t have the work ethic to put up top twenty numbers. I know that reports suggest Manny’s in the best shape of his life. Reports last spring training suggested Jason Schmidt would be the NL Cy Young. I know about the contract. Um, Manny’s a zillionaire. Do you really think he wants to play 150 games this year so he can make twelve million rather than ten? How many Wiis does Many need? Listen, he’ll still be one of the more productive elder statesmen (Hey, Luis Gonzalez, how’s the elbow?), but keep expectations in check. Projections: 85/32/105/.315

22. Hunter Pence – I tend to steer clear of second year players. (Here’s why Ryan Braun will suck.) In the first year, no one knows how to get them out (or catch up to them, if they’re pitchers). In the second year, everyone has the batter or pitcher’s number. Now they must adjust. This ain’t foolproof here; Hanley adjusted well (though I am down on Hanley this year, which you can see here). I’m just saying there are plenty of outfielders, why not go the safe rather than sorry route? Hunter may be great, but you’re going to have to draft him pretty high to get him. Stop with your ADD and wait a year; see what happens. Projections: 95/22/75/.290/17

23. Delmon Young – See Pence, Hunter. I actually like Young more than Pence. In the minors, he showed more potential. I think his ceiling is higher. So why is he below him? Why ask so many questions? The Twins might actually be worse offensively than the Astros. I know! Hard to bee-leave, right? Anyway, Young, Pence and Corey Hart (who placed 19th) are all very close. Corey Hart is on the best team offensively, Pence on the second best, Young third. See how that worked. Projections: 70/20/100/.285/15

25. Hideki Matsui – Why should you draft Hideki? Cause he loves porn. Also, you don’t get much safer. Sure, he had some injury problems recently, but he’s over the wrist and the knee should be fine. Stop looking for an argument. Projections: 105/25/100/.295

26. Vernon Wells – About here is where the caveats begin. Let’s call this Tier: Caveat. Caveat #1, Vernon absolutely sucks for extended stretches. I’m not talking an oh for twenty stretch. He’s stayed in a flunk for whole seasons. Ugh, I kinda want Swisher more. But he’s got caveats too. Well, Wells will steal… Maybe. I am giddy for Alexis Rios (he will be this year’s Holliday) and just maybe Rios can make the difference in that Jays lineup. Projections: 90/30/90/.280/7

27. Jeff Francoeur – Caveat #2, it’s obvious. But he’s still very young and he took almost double the amount of walks last year (I know, double of nothing is still nothing. Cute.). Very solid lineup around him (barring injury to Chipper, which is a thirty game given). I’m beginning to believe in Frenchy. Projections: 85/25/110/.280/5

28. Chris B. Young – Caveat #3, Krispie doesn’t make a whole lot of contact, but when he does, he has a power/speed combo that should make any fantasy owner excited. I had him for a bit last year (Gamble dropped him. Natch, natch!) and I’ve been crushing on Young ever since, even when he was hitting .230 for me. Projections: 90/25/70/.245/32

29. Andruw Jones – I don’t think he’s done-zo, but I watched more than my share of Jones at-bats last year. Caveat #4, He doesn’t care at all. Stop smiling after you strikeout; you’re really pissing me off! 85/32/110/.250 (BTW, speaking of not caring, while I was writing this up, I looked up to see if there was any new Andruw news. Seems he showed up to camp in Miguel Cabrera’s old body. Andruw will be retired by 36. Guaranteed.)

30. Nick Swisher – The move to the new team was a boon to his value, but that was mostly because his pre-trade value was pretty boon-less.  Caveat #5, Don’t go drafting Swisher expecting top OF value. He’s okay, but keep expectations in order. Projections: 90/33/105/.250

31. Jermaine Dye – Oddly, he seems like he has a bad attitude and, at the same time, no personality. (Unlike Jason Bay who can’t even sport a bad attitude.) Anyway,  Caveat #6, he had one good year amongst many mediocre ones. ’06 was an outlier. Don’t pay for a farkin’ outlier. Projections: 90/25/105/.280

32. Juan Pierre – Caveat #7, he’ll get you steals and maybe an inside the park home run if the official scorer blows a call on a bunt. Projections: 110/0/40/.300/50

33. Johnny Damon – Caveat #8, he relies on his legs and he’s getting old. And he’s getting old fast. Not sure what happened, perhaps diving for Manny’s cutoff throws took a lot out of him. If you don’t know what you’re getting from Damon by this point, you probably shouldn’t be playing fantasy baseball.  Projections: 105/15/70/.280/15

34. Jason Bay – Final Caveat, saved for this bum. I was going to leave Bay off completely, but I figured there would be some Pirates fan somewhere that would complain because Bay’s soooo cute and talented and, like, Canadian. Then I re-thought that and decided there are no Pirates fans. Act like you never saw Bay on this list. He’s poison. Projections: crap/crap/and more crap.

35. Shane Victorino – (Now’s the part of the list where I focus on sweet, sweet upside. These are guys you should be looking to draft.) Seriously, draft Victorino. What are you waiting for? I broke him down a few times already, but here’s the one that won me the Phillies Phulitzer. Projections: 115/15/60/.280/40 and Victorino and I get a room. (BTW, cause I know this is coming, Gamble beat me to Victorino last year. Reverse natch!)

36. Matt Kemp – If the price is right, pounce on Kemp. Shandler’s projecting 14/20; Rotowire’s projecting 17/14; I’m predicting… Projections: 95/20/75/.290/20

37. Michael Bourn – He’s been discussed too if you click here. He’s Juan Pierre for the Gen Z generation.  Projections: 105/4/50/.280/40

38. Josh Hamilton – Now the only crack Hamilton knows is the crack of the bat. Oofa! Seriously, folks. He’s the feel-good story of ’06. Like a baseball Mr. Holland’s Opus. Yowsers! Anyway, he does seem to be a bit injury-prone so be careful, but there’s upside in Arlington. Projections: 70/27/80/.300/5

39. Josh Willingham/Jeremy Hermedia – The upside portion of our show has concluded. I’m not advising you draft both Willingham and Hermedia. Actually, I won’t be drafting either, but they’re here cause, well, you know, they belong here. While we’re here — A secret! Don’t draft any Marlin. I love the “Who you gonna call… Maroone!” commercials as much as the next guy, but this team’s going to be wretched. Projections for both: 70/24/75/85/.270 Hermedia’s got more upside and (supposedly) the ability to steal. This has yet to come to fruition.

40. Kosuke Fukodome – I already dropped some knowledge about this hombre on your Fukodome. I veer towards the proven, so here’s another guy I won’t be drafting. Why not take the gamble? One word – KazIwamura. Projections: 65/15/75/.275 and Murton gets some at-bats. Alas…

Tomorrow we go over the pitchers to grab in drafts after the top twenty. You’re welcome.