Fantasy Baseball Advice

Chicago White Sox 2009 Minor League Review
Overall farm rankings according to Baseball America (2009)
2009 (16) | 2008 (28) | 2007 (26) | 2006 (14) | 2005 (12) | 2004 (20)

Record of Major and Minor league teams
MLB: [86 – 77] AL Central
AAA: [67 – 76] International League
AA: [92 – 47] Southern League
A+: [73 – 65] Carolina League
A: [82 – 57] South Atlantic League
R: [42 – 34] Pioneer League
R: [27 – 39] Appalachian League

The Run Down
With one of the better rookies of 2009 in Gordon Beckham, and there is an argument that he should have won Rookie of the Year, the White Sox are still in desperate need to become younger. Trading away several top arms for Jake Peavy has seriously weakened the depth of the team’s minor league system. Granted, with Peavy, Buehrle, Floyd and Danks, the White Sox have a nice looking rotation in a rather weak division; especially if youngsters Dan Hudson or Carlos Torres pitch well. So the depth is poor, but the top is heavy. With Tyler Flowers, Dan Hudson, and Jordan Danks, the Sox have young studs. No, I didn’t forget about Dayan Viciedo, he is just an afterthought this year. That’s what happens when your weight may rival your batting average – granted a .280 batting average is still decently pleasant. White Sox fans, don’t look too deep or you might find out why Ken Williams is being questioned for his constant trading.

Graduating Prospects
#1 – (3B) Gordon Beckham

Arizona Fall League Players – Peoria Javelinas
Pitchers – Justin Cassel, Matt Long, Jacob Rasner, Sergio Santos
Hitters – #4 (3B) Dayan Viciedo, #7 (CF) Jordan Danks, #29 (2B/3B) CJ Retherford

Players of Interest
Hitters
#4 Tyler Flowers | C | AA/AAA | 23 | .297/.423/.516 | 353 AB | 28 2B | 15 HR | .219 ISO | 108:67 K:BB | .396 BABIP | 47.8 GB% | 18.8 LD% | 33.5 FB%
Received in Javier Vazquez trade to Atlanta last winter (What kind of scouting do the Braves have that they have so many catchers to trade (i.e. Salty and Flowers)?), Flowers is penciled in as the future catcher of the Sox. With A.J. Pierzynski’s contract ending after this season (2010), a midseason call up should be expected. He only had 105 ABs at Triple-A, but still hit fairly well (.286/.364/.433). His strikeout rates are worrisome (~30.5 K%) as is his extremely high BABIP (.396). He has a career .358 BABIP in 1267 AB in the minors. For the 2010 season, he has 2009 Miguel Montero-like potential.

#7 Jordan Danks | CF | A+/AA | 22 | .266/.359/.405 | 402 AB | 23 2B | 9 HR | .139 ISO | 12/4 SB/CS | 105:55 K:BB | .334 BABIP | 50.8 GB% | 18.8 LD% | 30.4 FB%
The little brother of John Danks, Jordan plays good defense, lacks power, and has many scouts see-sawing on his future. Some scouts believe he will be able to add more homers and power once he adds more bulk to his frame, while others completely disagree, noting specifically his sketchy swing mechanics. The 2009 scouting report said he should hit for average, and he did in 118 AB in High-A (.322/.409/.525) but struggled mightily in Double-A (.243/.337/.356 in 284 AB). His strikeout rate is worth noting, but he walks a fair amount too. He kind of reminds me of Denard Span – had a lot of hype, loses favor, and then surprises later than expected. He is more of a dark horse/sleeper after his dismal 2009 season.

#2 Dayan Viciedo | 3B | AA | 20 | .280/.317/.391 | 504 AB | 20 2B | 12 HR | .111 ISO | 89:22 K:BB | .319 BABIP | 55.2 GB% | 16.4 LD% | 28.2 FB%
Grey mentioned Dayan Viciedo in early November and I mentioned him back in mid-June. Viciedo, if you listened to the hype, was a complete flop. However, if his age is legit, he played really well at Double-A. His power numbers were not quite what everyone was expecting, but that is what happens when you hit more than half of your balls on the ground. In 2010, he needs to put a bit more lift on his swing to see more success. He didn’t walk enough, however, his strikeout rate was respectable (17.7%). Triple-A pitching is next, and if he can adjust accordingly, a late season call-up (or an injury replacement if he is succeeding) would be expected. In dynasty leagues, now is your time to buy low.

#29 C.J. Retherford | 2B/3B | AA | 23 | .297/.340/.473 | 478 AB | 46 2B | 10 HR | .176 ISO | 70:30 K:BB | .328 BABIP | 39.9 GB% | 20.3 LD% | 39.7 FB%
With Brent Morel and Viciedo looking to lock up third and first base for the future, the Sox moved Retherford to second this year. He may have been a low ranked prospect in 2009, but his play moved him into the top of the Sox farm system. With Beckham at second, Retherford will need to repeat 2009 to solidify his rising prospect rating. He doesn’t have great speed and his defense is, at best, slightly above average (and his third base defense is marginal). Truly, Retherford could eventual provide late round depth at second base in terms of fantasy if he could hit .280/.350/.425 with 10 to 15 homers a year.

Pitchers
#24 Dan Hudson | RHP | A/A+/AA/AAA | 22 | 10.1 K/9 | 2.6 BB/9 | 147 1/3 IP | 2.32 RA | 2.43 FIP | .94 WHIP | .3 HR/9 | .288 BABIP | 42.1 GB% | 18.7 LD% | 33.8 FB%
If Flowers wasn’t on this team, Dan Hudson would easily be the top prospect in the system. Rising through the entire minor leagues last year, Hudson dominated at each level. Even his BABIP wasn’t extremely low, aiding his case for prospect breakout player of the year. His worst stop in the minors was in Triple-A at the end of the summer when he saw his walk rate skyrocket (3.4 BB/9), which was the highest since Single-A (2.6 BB/9). Although, he only pitched 24 innings at Triple-A, he was called-up in September and threw 18 1/3 inning with a strikeout rate of 6.8 K/9 and a walk rate of 4.3 BB/9. He has always been a good pitcher, but his senior year of baseball (2008), he slumped and when he was drafted he pitched really well (90 strikeouts in 70 IP). Look for him to compete for the last starting rotation spot in spring training with Carlos Torres. Don’t be shocked to see him start at Triple-A to save service time. If you want the next rookie stud, look no further. He has a low 90’s fastball with tailing effects to lefties and a riding in effect to righties, an average slider, and a spotty change-up (pre-2009 scouting report).

#25 Carlos Torres | RHP | AAA | 26 | 9.1 K/9 | 3.9 BB/9 | 128 IP | 2.39 ERA | 3.04 FIP | 1.19 WHIP | .3 HR/9 | .279 BABIP | 47.6 FB% | 20.2 LD% | 28.5 FB%
He received several starts in 2009 for the White Sox (28 1/3 IP) and pitched admirably. Note that admirably doesn’t mean well. This is just a heads up mention as Torres has a good fastball, a plus cutter, and the experience to help the White Sox in 2010. He is worth a late round flier.

#11 John Ely | RHP | AA | 23 | 7.2 K/9 | 2.9 BB/9 | 156 1/3 IP | 2.82 ERA | 3.68 FIP | 1.22 WHIP | .5 HR/9 | .296 BABIP | 50.5 GB% | 16.4 LD% | 28.9 FB%
His fastball sits between 88 and 94 mph with good movement, a 12-to-6 curve that fluctuates between being an “out” pitch and a “show me” pitch. Nothing spectacular, but nothing to scoff at either. As long as he keeps his pitches down, he should be a back end pitcher. Look only for him in the majors if there is a rash of injuries to the rotation.

Honorable Mentions
Hitters
Christian Marrero | 1B | A+/AA | 22 | .308/.348/.501 | 455 AB | 30 2B | 18 HR | .193 ISO | 94:24 K:BB | .353 BABIP | 44.2 GB% | 20.5 LD% | 35.3 FB%
He laced balls all over the field (20.5 LD%) while hitting his way to gain attention in the baseball world. Splitting the year at High-A and Double-A, Marrero pounded out hit after hit. His ISO raised between his promotion (.168 to .219), as did his walk rates. He’ll start the year in Double-A. Eventually, Marrero could replace Konerko, or platoon with another first basemen. Don’t be surprised to see him, Morel or Retherford used as trade bait.

Stefan Gartrell | OF | AA/AAA | 25 | .281/.358/.513 | 474 AB | 31 2B | 23 HR | .232 ISO | 128:53 K:BB | .340 BABIP | 45.5 GB% | 18.8 LD% | 35.7 FB%
Gartrell mainly played at Double-A. His age is working against him, his strikeouts too. His power on the other hand, definitely playing in his favor. If Jones doesn’t play well, Gartrell might be an option for a rather underachieving outfield gang.

#17 Brent Morel | 3B | A+ | 22 | .281/.335/.453 | 4481 AB | 33 2B | 16 HR | .172 ISO | 25/9 SB/CS | 66:38 K:BB | .304 BABIP | 44.3 GB% | 16.8 LD% | 38.5 FB%
A level too low for a “Player of Interest” mention, Morel projects to play the opposite corner of Viciedo. With good plate discipline, above average power, and good range with a plus arm, Morel is on the fast track to the majors. Look for him to play at Double-A, and potentially Triple-A in 2010.

Pitchers
#16 Jhonny Nunez | RHP | AA/AAA | 23 | 10.1 K/9 | 3.3 BB/9 | 70 2/3 IP | 2.55 ERA | 3.36 FIP | 1.18 WHIP | .8 HR/9 | .307 BABIP | 30.7 GB% | 22.8 LD% | 40.7 FB%
Used primarily as a reliever, Nunez pitched well this year. He was once a pitcher, however, his stuff (a mid 90’s fastball and a power slider) works better as a reliever – mainly because of his inconsistencies and inability to develop a solid third pitch.

Dan Remenowsky | RHP | A | 23 | 15.5 K/9 | 2.3 BB/9 | 63 1/3 IP | 1.99 ERA | 1.63 FIP | .88 WHIP | .4 HR/9 | .319 BABIP | 39 GB% | 13 LD% | 43.9 FB%
Easily the pitcher with the numbers that jump out and poke you in the eye. He is a bit older than his competition, and he’ll need to repeat his season to gain any kind of higher ranking or notoriety.

Stephen Sauer | RHP | A | 22| 7.8 K/9 | 1.2 BB/9 | 142 IP | 3.36 ERA | 2.79 FIP | 1.28 WHIP |.3 HR/9 | .363 BABIP | 56.3 GB% | 15.8 LD% | 21.7 FB%
I like his ground ball rate, and that is why he is here (along with adequate numbers too). His BABIP was a bit high (adjusted for his lower FIP), but his control, ground ball rate, and overall solid numbers makes him someone to watch.

What I’d really like to see is a Major Leaguer go to Cuba to play.  Kevin Youkilis grows out his beard another five inches, jumps in a raft and paddles to Havana.  He tears up the Cuban Leagues on a steady diet of fastballs and plantains.  This could end the Cold War for good. (It might already be over.  I’m not good at history.)  Dayan Viciedo is the latest Cuban prospect to defect (actually Aroldis Chapman is the latest; whatevs, it’s an introductory paragraph).  With his defection… (Speaking of which, talk about a word that had nothing going for it.  You don’t want a defect in anything, unless you’re defecting from somewhere… I found that interesting.  Semantics?  Perhaps.) Dayan hit well in spring training and people were saying that the White Sox had done it again with a Cuban prospect, just like Alexei Ramirez; this was before that was an insult.  Early on, Viciedo struggled in the minors (Scouting the Unknown went over Dayan’s minor stats in June), then turned things around a bit as the season progressed.  So can Dayan Viciedo help your fantasy baseball team in 2010?

I’m going to say doubtful with a chance of “not at all.”  As with other recent Cuban raftees, Viciedo likes to swing the bat and doesn’t do much walking.  In his first year of the minors at Double-A, he had a .317 OBP with 89 Ks to 23 walks.  He can probably have success with this approach, because he do what he do.  His line drive percentages went up in the 2nd half of the year, showing he was making better contact.  Really his terrible April brought everything down.  Interesting (to me, at least), in April he had his lowest line drive rate and highest fly ball rate as his numbers suffered.  The Akron Chapter of Speculating on Small Sample Sizes says, maybe he was trying to do too much in his first month of minor league ball.  He’s still (supposedly) only 20 years old.  Another year (or at least a half year) will do him good.  Best case scenario, two to three months in Triple-A and a mid-summer call up.  Worst case scenario, we don’t see him until 2011.  Outside of keepers, I wouldn’t bother with him in your March 2010 drafts.

Every off-season in recent years there has been an extraordinary amount of hype surrounding foreign players, and this year was no different. Junichi Tazawa and Dayan Viciedo was on everyone’s mind this winter, but have seemed to become nonexistent since. Surprise, surprise, that must mean one of two things. The first being they haven’t produced, the second is that those who were talking about them have ceased because they realize that there is nothing to hype, I mean talk, about anymore. Nevertheless, I am here to report the reality of the situation.

Junichi Tazawa – SP – Boston Red Sox – 5-11 – 180 lbs – DOB 6/6/1986 – Throws Right
Japan has produced valuable major leaguers recently, but none have truly lived up to their hype, save Ichiro. Hideki Matsui’s Japanese homers are American doubles, Hiroki Kuroda is a great second or third starting pitcher, and Kaz Matsui is, well, a serviceable major league player (minus the anal fissures). Daisuke Matsuzaka has been a bit less than advertised, but then again he was deemed God’s gift to baseball. Look at this quick list of players and tell me who stands out on credentials not name recognition (all players are in the majors or minors):

Kosuke Fukudome
Kei Igawa
Akinori Iwamura
Kenji Johjima
Masahide Kobayashi
Hideki Okajima
Kenshin Kawakami
Takashi Saito
Ken Takahashi
So Taguchi
Tomokazu Ohka
Koji Uehara
Keiichi Yabu
Yasuhiko Yabuta

Two standouts – Saito and Okajima. Okajima is a dominate 8th inning pitcher and Saito was a top closer when he wasn’t hurt. Nevertheless, some have not lived near their hype (Fukudome), others haven’t had the time (Kawakami, Uehara) and others are what they are (Iwamura, Kobayashi, Igawa, Ohka).

So, why digress this much? Well, all of these players came to America and the MLB through the traditional path – that is they played professionally in Japan and then came to America (and to prove a point that not all foreign Japanese players come to America and are successful). Junichi actually came over before playing at the highest level of professional ball in Japan. After his dominating 2008 season (113 IP, 13 W, 114 k, 15 BB) he asked all 12 major teams that participate in the amateur draft in Japan not to draft him so he could seek a contract with a MLB team. The Japanese teams honored his request, and this past winter Mr. Tazawa signed a 3-year, $3.3 million contract ($1.8 million was a signing bonus). Junichi was offered better deals but wanted a chance to play for his childhood idol/hero – Daisuke Matsuzaka.

Well, his dream will have to wait until he proves himself in AA, and rises the ranks like all other prospects. But does he have a chance? He has a average fastball that ranges from 89-92 mph with good movement. If he overthrows it, it flattens out. He will have to learn to use what he has and not overthrow the pitch or he will become extremely homer prone; which he is not – for the record in 71 2/3 innings at AA this year his HR/9 is .88, or just 7 home runs! His slider is what has drawn so much attention. This offering is in the upper 70s, breaks hard and is his out pitch. He also throws the stereotypical Japanese pitch, the forkball. It isn’t much, but it’s there. Lately, he has started to develop a curveball, but it’s really more a work-in-progress than anything else; though it does have a nice arch and break – like a Barry Zito curve. Random tidbit: some have compared him to Hiroki Kuroda.

Some scouts have been scared off by his arm whipping pitching motion, and anytime arm whip and pitcher are associated or mentioned in the same sentence, even average baseball fans wince. His lower body is ahead of his arm, and his arm comes around with a ton of force and recoil. This is the whip action that scouts are fearing. Nevertheless, I couldn’t find any negative medical reports.

What has this produced? Actually, surprisingly, he has pitched better than I would have expected:

71 2/3 IP, 7 W, 4 L, 21 BB (2.64 BB/9), 66 K (8.29 K/9), 3.14 ERA (3.63 FIP), 1.16 WHIP .234 ave (.288 BABIP)

Those are relatively impressive numbers in AA. Not quite the numbers that he posted in lower level baseball in Japan, but still enough to warrant a promotion to AAA. There hasn’t been a lot of luck in those numbers as demonstrated by the BABIP, and his FIP is only half a run higher than his ERA. Since he is in Boston’s farm and they are loaded with pitching, AAA is probably the highest he’ll go this year, unless the Red Sox are decimated by pitching injuries. So hold tight, but in minor league keeper leagues and long term dynasty leagues he should have been on your radar, and now he should be on your team! Say hello to the Junichi Tazawa in 2010!

Dayan Viciedo – 3B – Chicago White Sox – 5-11 – 240 lbs – DOB 3/10/1989 – Bats Right

There hasn’t been as many Cuban players that have played in the majors due to political reason (Fidel Castro v. America), but that hasn’t stopped stars/ Hall of Fame players such as Tony Oliva, Tony Perez, and Luis Tiant from succeeding in the MLB. Other Cubans in the majors include: half brothers Livan and Orlando “el Duque” Hernandez, Alexei Ramirez, Jose Contreras, Yunel Escobar, and Kendry Morales (Rafael Palmeiro is Cuban but isn’t playing anymore). These secondary names are not Hall of Famers, but have put up numbers that have allowed them to play at a high level (even if it was only for a short time *cough* Alexei *cough*). However, Viciedo is deemed the greatest Cuban player of all time! That is saying a lot as there are several players that never played in the MLB due to political reasons that were stellar in their own rights (Cuban baseball has an extremely rich history rivaling American baseball history). Talk about hyperbole and media hype! If this is the case, history will prove itself, but let the numbers play out before that title is given to a 20-year-old.

Viciedo, Cuban “masher” was signed this off season by the Cuban hoarding White Sox for a tidy sum of $10 million over 4 years ($4 million was a signing bonus). With the Cuban Missile (Alexei Ramirez) and the aging Jose Contreras already on their team, the common belief is that this should help assimilate Viciedo into American culture… Well that would only work if he was in the majors. Instead, he is sitting in AA and hitting like he deserves to be there:

.276/.296/.362 (ave/obp/slg) 31/4/37/5 (R/HR/RBI/SB) in 243 AB (62 games)

3.2 BB%, 19.8 K%, .086 ISO, .330 BABIP

Those are not numbers that would lead someone to believe that he played on the Cuban national team at age 16 when he hit 14 homers and for a .337 average (which is true). Not only is his hitting, well, to be nice, awful, it’s overshadowed by his terrible fielding (15 errors in 52 games)! That’s one every 4[ish] games. Good thing that the White Sox have the DH and can plug his bat in there. Seriously though, that might not happen if he cannot start hitting. Most 20 year old players are in high A ball, and nearing AA. I am not sure if the hype is warranted, or the much less the $10 million price tag (average minor league salaries). At least he doesn’t strikeout like Mark Reynolds, but he walks less than Delmon Young and hits for power like a pitcher… and he can’t even blame luck!

Enough bashing, and on to an honest numerical evaluation. Right now, with the numbers I have (its a small sample size), it might be best to return to Dayan Viciedo latter in the year when he has more at-bats. However, I am evaluating him right now, and I would classify him as a hype star that is losing its shine. Dayan’s ISO is disturbing and his walk rate leaves a ton to be desired. Hopefully its just a little culture shock and he will have a great second half, but only time will tell. Don’t look to see him in the near future. A spring training invite is necessary because he is on the 40 man roster. So, maybe the 2010 spring training hype will become all encompassing again, but might actually start to produce.

*All stats are as of 6/14/2009