Fantasy Baseball Advice

Achilles (Tennessee Mash – RCL 25) held on to the lead in the overall standings with 108 points, but things have tightened up. Big Magoo (Matthew Berry is a Tool) moved up a couple of spots to 2nd, just 1 point back. Trini (Psychic Friends Network – RCL 22) holds down 3rd with 105, while Playin’ The Field (Beef SAGNOF!) and Team Birdis (RCL 3) round out the top 5 with 104 points each. Got Heem (RCL 9) made the biggest move this week, gaining 17 points and jumping from 384th to 159th place in the standings. RCL 9 and the ECFBL have the top competitive index of 104.

There was mention this week in RCL 40 of Josh Hamilton or Adam Jones possibly being “steal of the draft.” Number 1 ranked Hamilton had an average draft position of 35.2 while Jones was at 71.8. Then there’s #2 Carlos Beltran (122.4) and #5 Edwin Encarnacion (207.4). How about Lance Lynn, who was drafted in just 6 leagues and is now ranked #7?  According to the Razzball Player Rater, Hamilton has gained over $44 in value, and is now worth $24 more than anyone else. Lynn has gained over $33, followed by Beltran ($32.4) and undrafted Fernando Rodney ($30.3). Since Lynn and Rodney were valued at $1 in the preseason, that probably makes them the top pick and pickup, respectively, so far.

Expert League: Mastersball Carey (Ryan Carey) bounced back and retook first place from RotoWire Del Don. Meanwhile Rudy and Grey went in opposite directions. Even Grey’s pitching let him down this week, finishing with just 1 win and ratios of 4.25 and 1.30. On the other hand, Rudy’s team moved up to 3rd place with 84 points and just missed earning top pitching honors, collecting 7 wins and 8 saves, with an ERA of 1.86 and 0.97 WHIP.

Trades: After last week’s 19 trades, the wheeler-dealers rested. Just 6 exchanges involving 18 players this week, highlighted by Uncle Robbies Daffiness Boys dumping the slumping Howie Kendrick in the ECFBL for the excitement of Eric Hosmer! In Ones are GOOD, right?, the Amazing Ocelots traded Felix Hernandez and Mike Adams to NYC Matthole for Brandon Morrow and Jake Peavy. Krispie Young and Yu Darvish were also among the players changing teams. You can find all the trades in the fantasy baseball forums. Look for the RCL under “Everything Else.”

Weekly Leaders

Fastballs At Ridgemont High (Schmohawk in Training) was the top hitting team this week. They hit .298 with 18 home runs and 59 RBI, 55 runs, and 14 steals. Jonathan Lucroy (.375/8 RBI/2 SB), Ryan Braun (.444/7 RBI/3 SB), Mike Trout (.444/2 HR/4 SB), and Ian Desmond (.344/2 HR/6 RBI/2 SB) all provided speed and power.

Average: .329 (Afghani Buzkashi – Fausto or Roberto?)
Runs: 61 (Thunder Muscle – Fantasy Master Lotharios)
HR: 18 (Fastballs At Ridgemont High, Big Magoo, Votto-erotic Asphyxiation, We’ve got the runs, Barking Basset Hounds, Coach McGuirk, Juicin Aint EZ- The A-Rod Story)
RBI: 59 (Sclerotic Whips – Yu Ain’t Goldschmidt, Fastballs At Ridgemont High)
SB: 20 (Super Tecmo Magic Rabbits – Myrtle’s Acres)

Urine  Sample (RCL 44) took pitching honors with an ERA of 3.39 and 1.17 WHIP with 80 Ks, 6 wins, and 13 saves. Jim Johnson (4 Saves/2.25/1.00), J.J. Putz (3 Saves/0.00/1.25), and Alfredo Aceves (2 Saves/0.00/1.07) led their relief corps, while Yovani Gallardo and Gio Gonzalez anchored the starting rotation.

Ks: 99 (Dueling Beaver Traps – RCL 44)
Wins: 9 (Rank Railheads – RCL #40)
Saves: 13 (Pliny the Elder – Myrtle’s Acres, NYC Matthole – Ones are GOOD right?, Urine  Sample – RCL 44)
ERA: 0.95 (Worldwide Suicide – Ones are GOOD right?)
WHIP: 0.89 (Worldwide Suicide – Ones are GOOD right?)

TEAM OF THE WEEK – May 14 – 20
Rank Railheads (RCL #40)
101/333 (.303) 50 R/17 HR/52 RBI/9 SB	108.2 IP 84 K/9 W/2.98/1.25/4 S
Andrew McCutchen and Martin Prado paced the Railheads’ offense this week. McCutchen hit 4 home runs and drove in 7, scored 6, and stole a base. Prado added a homer while hitting .519. Buster Posey (.381/5 RBI) and Carlos Ruiz (.476/6 Runs/1 HR/7 RBI/2 SB) made carrying 2 catchers seem like a good idea. Josh Reddick had only 4 hits, but 3 were dingers. 9 different pitchers picked up wins, with Ervin Santana putting up the best numbers: 15 strikeouts/1.32 ERA/1.10 WHIP. David Price (Win/13 K), Jason Motte (1 Win/1 Save), and Joel Hanrahan (3 Saves) were also key contributors.

Achilles (Tennessee Mash – RCL 25) held on to the lead with 109 points while Navseal 7 in the tough RCL 9 rocketed up to 2nd with 106. AdamH (Sleeve of Wizard – RCL 43) is 3rd at 104, followed by Pig Charmer (Grunge Ball – RCL 16), Simply fred (The Fredsies – ECFBL), and Bill Hodgeman (Team Hodgeman – Toads n Wet Rocks) with 102 points. Check out the Master Standings to see where you rank.

We have tweaked the Competitive Index formula in an attempt to balance the problem of abandoned teams, which will become more prevalent as the season progresses. The bottom 2 numbers in each statistical category are now dropped in the index calculation. Of course, there is no perfect way to compare 48 leagues, but we feel this will give us the best results for a fair and fun competition. RCL 9 continues to set the pace with a strong LCI of 105. Schmohawk in Training is right behind at 104.

With the first month of the season completed, I checked back to the drafts to see who had the best results. No team drafting first overall finished April in first place. The only other draft slot where this occurred was #12. 8 teams drafting 9th sat in first place after 1 month. While only 1 team that drafted Miguel Cabrera was leading their league, 16 teams that took Matt Kemp sat atop the standings. Of the 6 teams that drafted a pitcher in round 1, Team Hill (Go Big or Go Home) had the best April result, sitting in 5th place after taking Roy Halladay with the 11th pick.

There were 28 trades this week, bringing the total for the year to 79. Albert Pujols was traded 3 times, but his owners weren’t letting him go cheap. He was dealt for Joey Votto in Beef SAGNOF!, Prince Fielder in RCL 16, and Dan Uggla and Alex Rodriguez in RCL 9. In a move that should pay big dividends, The Fugs (Epic Beardmen Division) acquired Yovani Gallardo for Henry Rodriguez. In the search for saves, Trevor Cahill was traded for Francisco Cordero; Brandon McCarthy for Jonathan Broxton; Dan Uggla for Jonathan Papelbon; Ian Kennedy for Fernando Rodney; Cameron Maybin for Jim Johnson; Bryce Harper for Addison Reed; and Ted Lilly for Sean Marshall. In RCL 29, Gio Gonzalez was dealt for Chris Perez and Santiago Casilla. Also traded this week were Miguel Cabrera, Robonson Cano, Stephen Strasburg, Ian Kinsler, and Giancarlo Stanton. You can find all the trades listed in the Fantasy Baseball Forums. Look for the RCL under “Everything Else.”

Mastersball Carey (Ryan Carey) continues to lead the Expert League by 9.5 points, but there is a tight battle behind him as only 7.5 points separate 2nd and 8th. Rudy and Grey are in this group, in 3rd and 4th respectively. Both have much better pitching than hitting numbers. Grey is last in average (.250) and has just 18 hitting points, compared to 53.5 pitching points. For Rudy, pitching dominates 51.5 – 21.5.

Weekly Leaders

Chuck Norris (The Fuzz – Schmohawk in Training) had the top hitting team, finishing at .289 with 59 runs, 17 home runs, 64 RBI, and 9 steals. While Nelson Cruz was hitting .115, the likes of Jason Kipnis and Pedro Alvarez helped carry the load. Starlin Castro and Carlos Gonzalez also had great weeks. Oh my Crawford (RCL 29) led in pitching with 8 wins and 7 saves, along with fine ratios of 2.22 and 0.94. Felix Hernandez, Mark Buehrle, and CC Sabathia paced the staff.

Average: .345 (All I Do is Nguyen    - RCL 25)
Runs: 60 (DJ Roomba – Fausto or Roberto?)
HR: 20 (Fastballs At Ridgemont High – Schmohawk in Training)
RBI: 64 (The Fuzz – Schmohawk in Training)
SB: 16 (Team Little – The Dread Pirate Returns)
Ks: 86 (BG Nitros – RCL 40)
Wins: 10 (seward bellman – RCL 16)
Saves: 9 (Team Juiced – RCL 4, # Thanzig – Myrtle’s Acres, Good Wood – RCL 40)
ERA: 0.81 (The Oh No No’s – RCL 41)
WHIP: 0.69 (Kenny Effin’ Powers AllStars – RCL 44)

TEAM OF THE WEEK – April 30 – May 6
Navseal 7 (RCL 9)
90/303 (.297) 59R/17 HR/60 RBI/7 SB	71 IP 69K/4 W/2.41/0.90/3 S
Navseal 7 jumped from 80.5 to 101 points in RCL 9 this week, stretching their lead to 29 points. Chipper Jones (.429/7 Runs/2 HR/9 RBI) and Carlos Gonzalez (.391/6 Runs/3 HR/9 RBI/1 SB) were the offensive leaders, while Adam Dunn contributed 4 home runs and hit .318. Felix Hernandez picked up a win and 18 strikeouts, with an ERA of 0.56 and 0.75 WHIP. David Price won his lone start and struck out 8. He allowed 1 run and 4 baserunners in 8 innings. Jonathan Papelbon added a couple of saves.

The Master Standings are here!

It would be great if we can attach each team to a Razzball Commenter handle. Please fill out the below form so we can add your handle to the Master Standings page (note: you can also enter this for a leaguemate if you like).

Tennessee Mash (RCL 25) is our early leader with 110 points, followed by Playin’ The Field (Beef SAGNOF!) and The Fredsies (ECFBL). The Mash have been led offensively by Josh Hamilton, who has been a steal so far at pick #40. Earlier they had picked Joey Votto, Carlos Gonzalez, and Jay Bruce. Those 4 have hit .320 with 22 home runs and 73 RBI, and added 10 steals. After drafting Chase Utley in round 5, TM selected their first pitcher, David Price. 9th-round pick Gio Gonzalez has been stellar, with an ERA of 1.82 and WHIP under 1. In the last 9 rounds the Mash added Kenley Jansen, Aroldis Chapman, and Jonny Venters, who have contributed 6 wins, 2 saves, and 62 strikeouts, with an ERA of 1.02. Congratulations, Tennessee Mash!

League Toughness: Also, congratulations to RCL 9, the top league with an LCI of 105. League Competitive Index is based on the total stats for the whole league. The index page can be found here.  The points formula is: HR + SB + R/3 + RBI/3 + (H-.27*AB) + 2*W + 1.5 * SV + K / 5 + IP – (ER+H+BB/ 2).

Waiver Buzz: The Razzball nation was hopping Friday as everyone rushed to pick up new closer Scott Downs and freshly called up youngsters Mike Trout and Bryce Harper. Downs and Harper are 100% owned now, while Mike Trout is on waivers in 1 league.

Expert League: Mastersball Carey (Ryan Carey) continues to lead, but Rudy shot up to second place with a 19.5-point gain. Craig Kimbrel, Santiago Casilla, Zack Greinke and Brandon Morrow led Rudy to a pitching line of 65 K/6 wins/6 saves/2.08/1.20.

Trades: 9 more trades were processed this week, bringing the total to 51 involving 165 players. A 10-player swap in the ECFBL included Jose Reyes, Jose Bautista, Albert Pujols, Matt Holliday, Yovani Gallardo, and Jon Lester. Pujols was also traded in an 8-player deal in RCL 46. Hanley Ramirez and Clayton Kershaw were included in that transaction. Bryce Harper was used as a trade chip in The Dread Pirate Returns. He was dealt with Justin Morneau for Billy Butler. You can find all the trades in the fantasy baseball forums.

Weekly Leaders

All about The WHIP (RCL 43) hit .285 with 55 runs, 18 home runs, 55 RBI, and 4 steals to take offensive honors this week. PETER GAMMONS (RCL 24) had a great pitching line with 16 decisions (11 wins/5 saves) and ratios of 1.80 and 1.09.

Average: .332 (Broth’s  Baseball Stars – Fausto or Roberto?)

Runs: 58 (PublicEnemy #1 – Ones are GOOD right?)

HR: 19 (The Otters – RCL 24)

RBI: 57 (Das Haycist – RCL 20)

SB: 15 (All I Do is Nguyen – RCL 25, Worldwide Suicide – Ones are GOOD right?, Moody Broodies – Sphinctory Staff Inflection )

Ks: 90 (Team Birdis – RCL 3)

Wins: 11 (PETER GAMMONS – RCL 24)

Saves: 11 (Prague Defenestrators – Conshellation Prize)

ERA: 1.03 (Tennessee Mash – RCL 25)

WHIP: 0.69 (Feathered Mudcats – Beef SAGNOF!)

TEAM OF THE WEEK – April 23 – 29
Tennessee Mash (RCL 25)
75/257 (.292) 50 R/14 HR/55 RBI/13 SB	70 IP 63K/7 W/1.03/0.93/9 S
Carlos Gonzalez and Jay Bruce powered Tennessee Mash to the top of the standings with a total of 8 home runs and 21 RBI this week. They also scored 14 runs and stole 4 bases while hitting .432. Tennessee’s pitching was even better, with David Price (2 wins/12 K/1.17/0.85), Brandon Morrow (2 wins/12 K/0.71/1.03), and Gio Gonzalez (1 win/13 K/1.50/1.00) pacing the staff.

The answer to the pregunta, “Que es CarGo?” no longer requires an obligatory snail reference as he ended his 15 game homerless streak to start 2012 with 2 HRs against the Pirates, going 3-for-4 with 4 RBIs. He’s never going to hit .336 again like he did in 2010 (doubt he’ll ever hit .300 with his K-rate) but he is one of the few players that has legitimate 30 HR/20 SB potential. He had a similarly slow start last year before a great May/June (11 HR, 10 SB, .300+ AVG). If you can get a CarGo owner to sell low for a 3rd round or later OF like Jay Bruce or Adam Jones, sign that waybill or stick your hand in one of their many pockets or some other strained metaphor. Other fantasy baseball news….

Yu Darvish - Darvish out-samurai’d Kuroda with an 8 1/3 IP, 10K, 9 baserunner, 119 pitch effort against the Yankees. That’s 3-0 now for Darvish with wins against the Tigers and Yankees. Even better, he had only 2 BBs after entering the game with 14 walks in his first 3 outings. He has the stuff to put up 20 wins and 200 Ks but I’m not sold just yet that he’ll be able to maintain his control or hair color.

Johan Santana – Great start by Johan – 6 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 11 Ks – that didn’t net a win because the Mets have yet to score for him in 4 starts. It’s hard to jump on board the Santanawagon based on his velocity to date (88 MPH on the fastball) but even a return of 2008-2009 Santana (8 K/9 and near 3.00 ERA) would be a nice return given his draft slot. Maybe they’d have more money to build around Santana if they paid him in Madoff shares.

Shin-Soo Choo - Left the game with left hamstring tightness – which was a relief (as a multi-team owner) as he was pinch-hit for with Jason Donald with the bases loaded. If he wasn’t physically hurt, that kind of thing would have to mentally hurt. He might miss a game but the Shin-Soo Choo train should be running again in no time.

Jair Jurrjens – Demoted to AAA after a ghastly first 4 starts – 16 IP, 30 Hits, 17 ER, 10 BB(!), 8 Ks. He’s not a great pitcher but he’s managed two very good ERA seasons (despite poor FIP) in 2009 (2.60 ERA vs. 3.68 FIP) and 2011 (2.96 ERA vs. 3.99 FIP). Or maybe he is just the living proof of Saberhagenmetrics and you should stash him for next year.

Josh Johnson – The Mets seem to be running a Slumpbuster service for aces – one day after giving Lincecum his first win in a WHIP-filled 5 innings, Josh Johnson threw a 6 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 9 K gem. He’s had a rough start in his first couple of starts (16 IP, 8 K) but his performance should be fine as long as he stays healthy. And a guy who jumps from the roof of a skyscraper should be fine as long as he remains airborne.

Andrew McCutchen – Finally some RBIs for the Dread Pirate! 17 singles and 3 doubles in 15 games resulted in only 2 RBIs to start the year but he got 3 RBIs last night on a groundout and 2-run double. I think the braiding session between him, Presley, and Tabata really paid dividends.

Tom Milone – Earned a win with an 8 IP, 3 hits, 5 K, 0 BB gem against the White Sox. He’s never going to be a dominant K guy but he’s turning into a must-start at least for home starts – even if his name reminds me of a loser’s MySpace friend list (yes, I know…what non-loser has MySpace….it’s creative license).

David Price – Complete game shutout against the Angels. He must’ve been mad at Arte Moreno for saying he wasn’t an object during the Pujols negotiations.

Mike Aviles - 4 for 5 with 2 doubles, a HR, 2 runs and 3 RBI against Nick Hackburn and the Twins. Aviles now has 3 HRs and is hitting well over .300. Not to mention the trifecta in position eligibilty (2B/SS/3B). Definite sell high candidate as he seems to have a meteoric streak like this every year and then falls down to Earth.

David Ortiz – Big Papi is hitting .444 with 3 HRs so far. He really seems to be physically and emotionally into the game.

Rex Brothers – The Rex Brothers tag-teamed on a few of our teams’ ERA/WHIPs with a disastrous 4 batters – double, single, double, walk – against the season-long slumping Pirates. That’s now two straight outings where he got no outs (so two straight ings?). Love his K potential and he might have an outside chance at the closer gig at some point….but he’s unownable in mixed leagues right now and near unplayable in NL-only leagues.

Hunter Pence - Put his owners and Phillie fans through the ringer the last couple days. Hurt his shoulder over the weekend, sat on Monday, had an MRI during the day on Tuesday, was twurmered (tweet murmur) to be sitting today, and then hit a 2-run HR at night. Way to put the Pence in suspense, Hunter.

Matt Wieters – HR #6. Take note – next time there’s a hyped catcher, just wait a couple years before drafting them high.

Tony Campana – Second straight 2 SB game for Campana – even if the 2nd was an AWFUL call. Cuz safe ain’t got no face either.

Max Scherzer – Not cool, Max. It’s one thing to get blasted by the Red Sox in your first start of the season but giving up 5 ER and 12 baserunners in 5 innings at home against Seattle is like a surprise nut punch.

Gerardo Parra - 3rd SB in 6 games for Parra. SAGNOF!

Chris Perez - That’s 7 straight converted saves for Chris Perez with only 1 ER. He’s anything but a sure bet this year (5 K / 4 BB in 10 IP this year) but, if I was Pestano, I’d pull a Delilah and cut his mullet in his sleep.

Vance Worley – A very impressive start (6 IP, 1 ER, 6 Ks) on a night where the ball was carrying at Chase Field (5 HRs in the game). He’s now at about 163 MLB IP with 150 Ks and a 1.22 WHIP. I think I’m catching the VW bug.

Craig Kimbrel – Got the save after giving up 1 Hit, 1 BB, and, of course, getting 3 strikeouts. Can we start calling a 3 K inning for a save a ‘Kimbrel’?

Jose Altuve - The slam and legs for Altuve. That’s 3 SBs in the past 5 games. The .350 AVG is inflated by a lucky BABIP but Altuve’s showing an improved eye (same amount of BBs this year as he did in 3x the PAs last year) which should only help his runs and SBs. If only his last name didn’t make him sound like a terrorist.

Mike Pelfrey – There are murmurs that Pelfrey may have a partially torn UCL and be sent to Dr. Freeze for Tommy John surgery – or at least Sandy Alderson can’t ‘rule this out’. He’s like bizarro-Minaya – overreporting possible injuries vs. underreport confirmed injuries. “You know, Mr. Met may very well be a man in costume who drank too much nerve tonic and suffered the same ill effects as Ken Griffey Jr. in the Simpsons ‘Homer at the Bat’ episode.”

Well, that took care of the hitters.  They’re done.  That cake is done.  Unless you count Utility-only players, the Hall of Fame committee doesn’t count them, not sure why you do.  Maybe you like players so unathletic that they can’t even play first.  You deal with your own hang-ups, ‘kay?  Now we look at the top 20 starters for 2012 fantasy baseball.  Bee tee dubya, I’m still calling this year twelve after twenty.  Hope you are too, hate to think I started a fad that only lasted for a minute or two right after midnight on January 1st.  We’re gonna take this top 20 to a top 40 then a top 60 then a top 80.  Sounds daunting to you?!  Try being the one writing all this gobbledygook.  I have a pretty off color joke for that last word, but you would’ve had to be in ‘Nam to appreciate it.  You’re not going to find me drafting many of the top tier 20 starters unless they drop to the point where I feel they’re a bargain.  Say two to three rounds past their average draft position.  There’s just too many starters you can grab in the 5th to 7th rounds that are pretty safe to mess with the top, top guys.  I do like to grab at least one starter from the following post, but we’ll get to that.  As with the hitters, the projections are mine and I’ll list where I see tiers starting and stopping.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 starters for 2012 fantasy baseball:

1. Roy Halladay – This is the top tier.  This tier goes from here until Verlander.  I call this tier, “The top tier.  Didn’t I already say that?”  Halladay’s projections can be found in the top 20 for 2012 fantasy baseball.

2. Clayton Kershaw – I saw some ‘perts rank Verlander above Kershaw.  For shame, shame balls.  I saw another ‘pert rank Verlander above Halladay.  Shame ball me once?  Shame balls on you.  Shame ball me twice?  Shame balls on you.  To think I don’t get paid for this astute analysis.  Inconceivable!  Seriously (uh-oh, you know I’m about to get serious), what is there to say about the top pitchers?  Kershaw just slept with your sister in the back of a hooptie, then left her on the side of the 101 in Reseda.  Are you angry or proud?  Proud, that’s how awesome he is.  2012 Projections:  17-7/2.55/1.05/230

3. Cliff Lee – The Adverb had a tough time with walks last year (for him, which is way below normal for any human pitcher), and that lead to a huge step forward in Ks (7.84 to 9.21 K/9).  Doode, I’ll take a full 2.00 BB/9 if it means another 40 Ks.  You feel me?  If you do, could you stop?  It’s making me uncomfortable.  2012 Projections:  18-8/2.50/1.05/215

4. Justin Verlander – The other day I heard a ex-jock, sportscasting announcer guy say, “Verlander didn’t have a good year…. He had a great year!”  Is there any other profession that could get away with such trite shizz?  Imagine your mechanic told you your muffler wasn’t good… It was great!  You’d think twice the next time a Groupon for Jiffy Lube showed up in your Inbox.  You know ESPN et al think they can get away with ex-jocks/idiotic sportscasters because they think you’re dumb.  With that said, Verlander did have a great year.  DAH!!!  2012 Projections:  18-7/2.75/1.08/240

5. Tim Lincecum – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Greinke.  I call this tier, “The aces that once were.”  I’m seeing Lincecum drafted after a couple of guys I have after him on my rankings, so if he were to fall far enough, I could see maybe getting him.  He would have to fall probably much later than he will.  He had a solid enough 2011 to still be an ace.  Don’t love the falling K-rate, burgeoning walk rate or his highest xFIP since his rookie year.  None of it is terrific, but I also wouldn’t yell fire in the theater of Lincecum.  2012 Projections:  15-10/2.75/1.18/230

6. Felix Hernandez – Ready to have your mind blown?  F-Her actually had a better season in 2011 than his dream Cy Young year when he won a whole 13 games.  Thinking about that, Murray Chass just rolled over in casket, assuming he sleeps in a casket to make things easier for his family when he dies.  F-Her’s K-rate was better in 2011, his xFIP was nearly identical (3.14 vs. 3.15) and he won an extra game.  (His WHIP was a little off, but that was due to some rollers finding holes, as they say on the Skee-Ball World Tour.)  2012 Projections:  15-12/2.80/1.14/220

7. CC Sabathia – I’m trying not to be too stupid this year.  In previous years, I’ve said I’m avoiding CC because he has too many innings on his arm.  Then he’s gone out and thrown another 200 innings.  He can throw a lot of innings.  He’s just a dandy Yankee who eats lots of cheese doodles — stick a feather in his arm and call it macaroni and then he’ll eat that too.  2012 Projections:  20-7/3.10/1.20/210

8. Zack Greinke – Okay, I probably will end up drafting Greinke cause I’m ranking him pretty high.  That doesn’t mean I’m taking him in the 3rd round overall.  (I’ll get to the top 300 overall where I rank everyone together; don’t worry your cute little egg-shaped head about that.)  I can’t say I owned Greinke last year when everyone was crazy about him in the preseason because, well, everyone was crazy about him.  Then he went out and had a 3.83 ERA.  Belch called you up and burped.  Obviously there’s more to his ERA than meets the eye.  He had a 10.54 K/9 and a 2.56 xFIP.  *drool*  Everyone’s writing the Brewers off this year, and there’s some reason to, but Greinke used to do work on the Royals.  He’ll be a’ight.  2012 Projections:  15-8/2.90/1.18/220

9. Cole Hamels – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Lester.  I call this tier, “If I don’t have one starter already, here’s where I’m drafting and I’m fine with that.”  Are we going to get the Hamels that gives a 9+ K-rate or the under-2 walk rate?  Doesn’t matter.  He really hasn’t had one bad year when you look under the hood.  Four straight years of 32+ starts and no xFIP over 3.63.  You’ll take it and like it.  2012 Projections:  15-10/2.95/1.10/200

10. Madison Bumgarner – I already went over my Bumgarner 2012 fantasy.  I wrote it while counting my licks to the center of a Tootsie pop.  2012 Projections:  15-8/2.90/1.18/200

11. Yovani Gallardo – I took some flak for ranking Gallardo so high last year.  Well, last year I ranked him 10th and this year 11th.  Correction done.  I don’t know, guys and three girl readers, he had a 8.99 K/9, dropped his walk rate by more than one per nine and had a xFIP of 3.19.  Was it really that bad of a year?  Rhetorical!  If he gives me the same season as last year, I’m all right with that.  (Side note:  Gallardo was on the Verducci list of risky pitchers.  Here’s what I said about that list.)  2012 Projections:  15-9/3.15/1.20/210

12. David Price – I saw one fantasy baseball ‘pert rank Price 11th and Gallardo 18th.  Let’s see what we know from last year:  Price’s K-rate 8.75; Gallardo’s 8.99, Price’s walk rate 2.53; Gallardo’s 2.56, Price’s xFIP 3.32; Gallardo’s 3.19, Price is in the AL East; Gallardo is in a Pujols-less NL Central (which actually sounds painful), Price won 12 games last year; Gallardo 17.  I’m willing to throw wins out the metaphorical window, but is anything else saying Price is that much better?  None of this is meant to disparage Price, bee tee dubya.  I just don’t see the discrepancy between the two.  You know what happens when you feel sick from French pancakes?  You’re having a discrepancy.  Take it, Highlights.  It’s yours.  2012 Projections:  15-10/3.20/1.18/200

13. Jon Lester – I beat myself up a little (no, that’s not a euphemism for something else) on where to rank Lester. His xFIP last year was 3.62.  I’ve seen better.  His K-rate of 8.55 is great, but he’s done better.  Looking inside his months, it’s hard to see why we should penalize him for two bad months (May and September).  In May, he had one start vs. the Cubs where he gave up 5 earned in six innings, but the Sawx had a huge early lead, so he was pitching to bats.  He was then torched by the Blue Jays for five runs in 5 innings, but three came in the 1st and then he settled down.  Finally, he gave up 7 earned vs. the White Sox (obviously he doesn’t like Chicago pizza).  In that game, he gave three early runs then 4 in the 6th to get chased.  Then his bad month of September came when the entire club crapped on the memory of Johnny Pesky.  Am I making excuses for Lester?  Oh, fo’ sho.  But he strikes out a lot of people.  Hmm, guess I could’ve just said that.  2012 Projections:  16-9/3.25/1.22/200

14. Dan Haren – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until C.J. Wilson.  I call this tier, “Wim Wenders’s favorite tier.”  With my Haren ranking here, I’m basically blocking a Triple Word score with a solid, yet unspectacular word.  I don’t think Haren is going to be someone who ends up out-performing this ranking (unless he lucks into, like, 22 wins).  He is terrifically solid.  No more, no less.  It’s not a knock.  It just is.  2012 Projections:  17-10/3.30/1.12/190

15. Jered Weaver – This year in and year out exceeding of his xFIP worries me.  It’s like we’re being told to proceed with caution, but continue to ignore it and it works out.  I don’t want the rug to get pulled out from underneath me, but I also don’t want to say he’s garbage because he has a bit of a track record that says he’s not.  I’m going to put my ERA projection at 3.35, but if we get a 3.60 it wouldn’t shock me.  I also don’t think it would make for that awful of a season either.  2012 Projections:  16-10/3.35/1.12/200

16. C.J. Wilson – When he landed in SoCal, I went over my C.J. Wilson fantasy.  I wrote it while juggling fire.  2012 Projections:  14-8/3.45/1.21/190

17. Gio Gonzalez – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until the the top 40 starters for 2012 fantasy baseball.  I call this tier, “Am I crazy with these rankings?  Yeah, crazy like a fox!”  You’ll pardon me if I link to my Gio Gonzalez 2012 fantasy rather than reiterating.  This post is already pushing 2000 words and eyes tend to glaze over after the first 125 words.  2012 Projections:  15-8/3.50/1.28/200

18. Matt Cain – He’s the only name in this tier that isn’t crazy exciting just reliable.  If you think this is too high and that I’m crummy with crackers, his ERAs the last three years were:  2.89, 3.14 and 2.88.  Like Harrison Ford’s Jewish roots, those aren’t too shabby.  Need more convincing?  He had more quality starts than Halladay last year.  Sure, his xFIPs aren’t great, but he beats those every year, let’s just accept that.  2012 Projections:  14-10/3.10/1.10/180

19. Mat Latos – Albert went over Latos’s trade to the Reds when it went down.  There he said, “When you think Padres pitching, you assume they get huge bumps from Petco – not exactly the case for Latos. While he has a slightly better K:BB rate at home during the course of his career, his slash lines are virtually identical: .229/.287/.348 at home versus .224/.286/.351 on the road.  Bingo-bango!”  I added the bingo-bango.  To add to that, Latos was facing the Giants and Dodgers a heck of a lot.  They’re, how do I say, terrible.  Yes, that’s how I say it.  Home or away.  He’ll be a bit less the pitcher he was, but he’ll also have an actual offense and could be a sleeper to get 20 wins.  I know, I know, I don’t count on wins either.  Just putting it out there in the ether, no relation to Andre.  2012 Projections:  16-10/3.50/1.20/200

20. Stephen Strasburg – His fan club, The House of Strasburg, better launder their early-1900s, Austrian officer uniforms because we’re about to have our ordainment of St. Rasburg.  I want to watch him more than I want to get in a bidding war to own him.  If you catch my drift… If you don’t catch my drift, stand behind me.  I’d be shocked if he pitches one inning over 160.  For our friends from Latin America, we have a caveat:  I wouldn’t go near Strasburg in H2H leagues, there’s no way he pitches in September.  2012 Projections:  12-5/2.90/1.10/165 in 160 innings