Fantasy Baseball Advice

A non-stop flurry of nothing came out of Las Vegas as the Winter Meetings came to a close, as the gold nuggets ended up being turd nuggets.  Not that this deal was a real whopper, but Melky and Mike Cameron wasn’t finalized so I’m not going to go into that yet. Felipe Lopez, Matt Joyce and Edwin Jackson found new homes, so I’ll cover them. Yay, we get to hear about three schmohawks! Oh shut up, random italicized voice. Yes, these three guys aren’t quite as riveting as Teixeira landing somewhere, but that will have to wait for another day. Anyway, here’s some smaller deals that went down on the final day of the Winter Meetings and how they’ll effect fantasy baseball:

Felipe Lopez - Not even a blip on the radar when the Diamondbacks signed Felipe Lopez to a deal, but this could be a huge addition to some 2009 NL-Only and deeper mixed leagues. Felipe Lopez went 35/4/24/.360/4 in only 189 at-bats after the All-Star break last year. Sure, multiplying stats by three is about as indicative as a cute girl with a twitch winking at you, but Lopez is capable of those stats. He’s only going to be 29 for the 2009 season and could go 20/20/.260 in a full season. Can any of youse say 2009 fantasy sleeper? I knew you could.

Matt Joyce - Matt Joyce went to the Rays for Edwin Jackson. At worst, Matt Joyce figures to be the strong side of the right field platoon for the Rays. In AL-Only leagues, he could be a great endgame bargain being able to hit 15-20 home runs and chuck in some steals, though he will be a liability on average. In most mixed leagues, I’d let him pass, unless he’s showing some serious signs in spring training.

Edwin Jackson - Edwin Jackson went to the Tigers so he could try to finally fulfill that top prospect label he picked up seventeen eons ago in Los Angeles. I haven’t given up on Jackson yet, but it would be nice if he started striking out some hitters again while keeping his walks down. In AL-Only leagues, Edwin’s a good late round flier who you shouldn’t mind dropping fairly quickly. The biggest ancillary (<–Word of the Day and I’m not sure I’m using it correctly, but whatever helps you people sorta learn) effect of this trade is David Price has a rotation spot. Lates, Edwin.

We’ve already looked at some 2009 rookies for fantasy baseball, such as Travis Snider, Matt Wieters, Killa Kahula and Brett Gardner. Now we turn our monocled eye towards David Price. It took some time for the Rays’ farm system to pay dividends, but, now that it has, it’s a doughy bagel. (A doughy bagel is a situation that is very good for its kind; eminently good. I’m trying to get “doughy bagel” to catch on so use it whenever you can. Thanks!) The best thing about this doughy bagel farm system is they are stacked right now in the majors and they have prospects in the minors. And the Jewel of the Tampa Nile is David Price. He’s bona fide as a character in a bad Coen Bros film might say. Aw, look at Grey, he watched the World Series and now he’s hyped up on David Price for 2009. God, random italicized voice, I hate you. Yes, there’s a chance that the World Series will have people overrating David Price for 2009. But there’s a chance he can be as good as the hype.

When he was at Vanderbilt (Did you know Grey almost went there for undergrad? You did? Stalker!), Price was some kind of dynamo. Price’s numbers are those of legends. Then the Rays took him from High A to Double-A to Triple-A to the Majors in 2008 as they boosted his Frequent Flyer miles and primed him for 2009. Between those Minor League stops he went a cumulative 12-1/2.30 and 109/32 K/BB ratio in 19 starts. He suffered his only loss in his Triple-A debut. Not necessarily a terrific sign, but it might have been nerves. In 2009, I predict the Rays will try and get Price at least 20 starts. This could mean he starts the season in the bullpen and waits for an injury to a starter cough Kazmir cough. This will shake out more in spring training. If you’re drafting for 2009 before spring, grab Price like a third or fourth fantasy starter. Think Gallardo going into 2008. Yes, I used one of the biggest busts of 2008 on purpose because drafting Price means embracing risk. Anyway, Price should go in mixed leagues some time around draft pick 130 to 140. In AL-Only and keeper leagues, you obviously need to be much more aggressive.

David Price made his 1st major league start yesterday against the Orioles. He went five and one-third innings and gave up one earned run. He was solid through four innings, but then his stool got loose in the fifth when he walked in a run. What I saw, he looked dazzling at times and every bit the hyped uber-prospect with the bland name that he’s supposed to be. He’ll be an early Rookie of the Year candidate next year, but there’s a lot of baseball still for him to play this year. Will he be an October hero or will he struggle? Will he blaze through spring training or hit Manual Noriega-sized facial craters? Stay tuned! Or not! Or yacht! Your choice! Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Rich Harden - The Cubs begin to setup their playoff rotation by pushing Harden’s start from Tuesday to Thursday. (This is another reason why H2H is lame. You have playoffs in your league when many players aren’t even interested in the outcome of the games. This is also a solid reason to load up on Mets, Phillies, Diamondbacks, Dodgers and Brewers as they fight for their lives.)

Chris Dickerson - Looking invulnerable for almost a month until his one weakness was exposed, the Achilles. Dickerson has an Achilles stress fracture and he’s done for the year. Don’t worry, Dickerson, I’ll make sure you show up on a sleeper list or two in ‘09. Toodles for now.

Hanley Ramirez - 0-for-5 as he returned from shoulder pain to watch his Marlins get officially eliminated. The Marlins might shutdown Hanley before the Nots’ series to avoid further injury for their prized shortstop. Unless they feel compelled to give all the paying Nots fans their money’s worth, which is approximately $4.75.

Jake Peavy - Goes from a two start pitcher to a one start pitcher as his start is pushed back from Tuesday to Thursday. Peaved? Yeah, you are.

Brandon Webb - Won his 22nd game and puts the Cy Young pressure on Lincecum to throw 140 pitches next time out. A Cy Young is soooo (I almost went with two extra snarky ohs, but I felt like three was necessary) much more important than a healthy pitcher next year.

Joey Devine - Got a Hold yesterday as he entered the eighth. Well, there goes his save potential for this last week, right? Not so fast, Ralph Tresvant. Ziegler blew the save and was pulled from the ninth for Embree.

Ervin Santana - 8 IP, 1 ER, 9 Ks. On the year, he has an incredible 209/46 K/BB ratio. In case there’s anyone out there that doesn’t follow these sorts of statistics, that ratio is Santanalicious, as in Johan.

Kelly Johnson - HR yesterday. You’re going to look at his 82/12/67/.285/10 numbers next year and think, “He’s exactly what I need at 2nd base!” And he’s not bad, but, man, he gets yawnstipating for months at a time. BTW, my preseason projections for him were 85/17/65/.275/12. Pretty close, huh? I can’t wait until I go over all my preseason predictions this offseason to see how I did — all starting next week! That’s right, put on your excitement shoes!

Stephen Drew - HR yesterday. Hitting .351 with 5 HRs in September. Ain’t that right, Drew? True.

Dan Wheeler - Save yesterday. Bee tee dubya, Percival is not even with the team as he gets readied for the postseason (and middle age).

David DeJesus - 4-for-4 yesterday, in the midst of a 13-game hitting streak and batting over .350 in September. Groove is in DeJesus.

Miguel Cabrera - Lower back tightness forced him out of the game. Make sure you have a backup because the Tigers will not press him into action if he’s hurting.

Hank Blalock - HR yesterday and still healthy. Hank, there’s only six more days you have to live in that bubble! Keep on rollin’!

Guess what time it is? No, not three o’clock. It’s time for this week’s fantasy baseball buy/sell thingiemajig. Dur! As we move closer to the end of the season, I wanted to take this opening section to point out some hard facts. Arod is sleeping with a fifty-year-old lady. Ew! No, wait, that wasn’t what I wanted to point out. I wanted to say it’s now or never. Okay, I said that before, but now it really is. Don’t leave anything on the table. Or put it all on the table. Or whatever that inspirational poster with the guy rappelling a mountain says. If you’re thirty steals out in front of your nearest competition, why are you still starting Brian Roberts? He sucks. He’s not hitting as many home runs as Ty Wiggington. (Okay, he doesn’t suck, because he is hitting for a high average right now. But if you need home runs — big whoop! Or not! Depends on your need.) If you can’t gain any points in saves, why are you carrying seven closers? So my nearest competition can’t get any saves. Oh, well, that actually makes sense. As weird as it is to drop some players (Kinsler!), if they’re not helping you right now, they’re not helping you. You have, like, no time, people! P.O.Y.M.G.S.S. (Put On Your Make Grey Smile Shoes) Anyway, here’s some fantasy baseball players to buy and sell:

BUY

Adam Wainwright - If he stays healthy, he might be the September Cy Young. Unfortunately, it’s a Zelda Rubinstein-sized if. (Which is about a 4′ 11″-sized if.)

Jo-Jo Reyes - Member that Campillo dude. Yeah, Reyes is him minus the innings.

Tom Gorzelanny - Easily could be in the Sell list, because, earlier in the year, he added the third suck in sucky-suck-suck. Since July, he’s been T to the -orrid in the minors at a 2.06 ERA and .91 WHIP. To misquote Wyclef, he’ll be back in September.

Pablo Sandoval - A lot has been made of his weight. Well, there’s a lot there to make of it. Oofa! Let’s just say, if Pablo Sandoval gets a single against the Brewers, leaving him and Prince Fielder both at first, everyone else on the field should shift their weight towards third to avoid a landslide. Might get some starts in front of Benji. He’s got some pizz-op.

Travis Metcalf - Three homers in three starts this week. Could be something, might be nothing. If you’re struggling at corner, you take a flier. He might lose all playing time with Blalock’s return, but as we know from knowing what we know, Blalock will get hurt as soon as he returns.

Juan Salas - Just called up from the minors. Middle relief numbers to make you feel alive with pleasure like a Newport.

Mark Reynolds - The other day I mentioned Reynolds could move to 2nd base when Justin Upton returns. Look at Reynolds’s numbers (77/24/85/.245/8). Now imagine them from a 2nd basemen. That’s almost a top five 2nd basemen and he’s better than Uggla. In keeper leagues, this could be huge.

Alexei Ramirez - As I mentioned in yesterday’s fantasy baseball keeper post, I fell in love with Alexei and I liked it! I hope my girlfriend don’t mind it! (Sorry, that stupid song is still stuck in my head.)

Jeff Kent - Yeah, he’s a douchebag, but he’s been hot since Manny’s come to town. Get involved!

SELL

Clayton Kershaw/Johnny Cueto/Edinson Volquez/Zach Greinke/Jair Jurrjens/Jorge Campillo/Ricky Nolasco/Justin Duchscherer/Mike Pelfrey/Any pitcher that is pitching far too many innings for their arm - I’m not saying you need to drop these guys outright (though I have started dropping a few them. I’m looking at you, Greinke, Campillo and Jurrjens. Also, if I had Dook-sheer, I wouldn’t be expecting anything from him.). You just need to make sure you’re not too reliant on any of them. They might go from usable to having starts skipped in the matter of seconds.

David Price - Could be here by September 1st, might be worth the flier in ‘09, he’s not ready yet.

Ian Kinsler - I know this injury hurt you, but there’s not much time left. You can’t be waiting around for him to return.

Chris Carpenter - You might get more from Tim Redding this year. Okay, bad example. But there still has to be more valuable guys on your waiver wire.

Brandon McCarthy - He’s on his way back to claim a Rangers’ rotation spot. In deep leagues, I could see the flier, but I’m not expecting anything from him. That’s not true. I’m expecting him to suck.

Ken Griffey Jr. - He’s looked like Ken Griffey Sr. all year.

Chris Davis - He’s hitting .211 in August with 2 HRs. Could he have a good September? Perhaps, but he’s a K machine. When I told you to pickup Chris Davis in June, I said, “Adam Dunn struckout 101 times in his last full year of the minors. Chris Davis struckout 150 times.” And that’s me cutting and pasting me! Now if Metcalf keeps hitting and Blalock returns and stays healthy, Davis may sit a few games a week. Sorry, but don’t shoot the messenger.

Huston Street - He’s owned in 83% of ESPN leagues. As usual, I assume 97% of ESPN’ers abandon their team so this ownership number means very little, but let’s assume just 7 people actually play ESPN fantasy baseball and out of those 7, 1 person still has Street on their team. That’s one person too many.