Fantasy Baseball Advice

If you can’t find a high risk/high reward outfielder on your waivers right now, you’re just not trying very hard.  Sorta on topic, I feel like picking up the latest high risk/high reward hitter is like double dog daring your leaguemates.  You think picking up Snider is risky?  I just picked up Wladimir Balentien! Oh, yeah?  I’m grabbing Matt Diaz and Chase Headley!  *beads a sweat from random italicized voice*  Fine, I’ll grab Angel Pagan! As for Travis Snider, he’s still very young and raw like a nice piece of toro.  If you need pop, he’s worth a flier in all leagues to see if you can catch some lightning in a bottle, Thor.  Though he’s just as capable of striking out 30 times in the next month and batting .130 as he is of hitting 8 homers.  If your itchy for rookie nookie, go for it.  Just beware the rash.  Anyway, here’s some more players to buy and sell this week in fantasy baseball:

BUY

Matt LaPorta – The MLP Package is on in Cleveland.  Now it’s up to LaPorta to make it watchable.

Drew Stubbs – Has great speed and BBQ.

Kyle Blanks – For power, you could do worse.  Fun fact about Kyle Blanks, every year for Halloween, he dresses as Michael Clarke Duncan and he wears no costume.

Julio Borbon – Great, terrific, wonderful.  All signs pointing to fantastic.  Could win Player of the Week.  Has a long way to go to being worthwhile for an extended period of time, but while he’s hot, grab him.

Carlos Gonzalez – We’re all gonna go blind if I keep flagellating Carlos Gonzalez.

Rajai Davis – SAGNOF!  I’m only mentioning him again, because he’s still only owned in 25% of ESPN leagues.  Even if 75% of ESPN leagues are abandoned… Wait, does that means he’s 100% owned?  Hmm… Color me confused.

Bronson Arroyo – He’s had one bad start since the All-Star Break.  That is all.

Billy Wagner – Lukewarm buy here.  If you really need saves, okay.  But he needs to not only get dealt, but he needs to end up on a team where he’ll be getting saves.

Mark Ellis – Picking up Mark Ellis and an orangutan couldn’t even get Jane Goodall’s nipples hard, but Ellis has been hot and he has 2nd base eligibility, so there.

Jeff Baker – I almost went with the title, The Fabulous Baker Boy and Jeff Baker as the lead.  Jeff Baker?  Boy, perhaps.  Fabulous?  Seems to be overselling him.  Wow, this is already shaping up to be a major sell on this buy.  So what can we expect of Jeff Baker?  He has great eligibility!  How’s that for a buy?  He has good pop that never fully materialized in Colorado.  So now it’s going to materialize? Yeah, I know what you’re saying.  He hit 20+ homers in his last full year of Triple-A.  He also has ten steal speed over an entire season.  Right now, he’s the Cubs starting 2nd baseman.  So if you need some pop from your MI slot, Baker’s worth a look.

SELL

Aubrey Huff – I didn’t like him at all in the preseason.  Then when he was terrible, I looked at his 2nd half splits.  Splits, indeed.  But like Biff Tannen, make like a banana.   I’m done ever liking him.

Brett Anderson/Trevor Cahill -  Way over their innings.  Beane needs to either shut them down or trade them for seven first round picks.

David Price – Another guy that’s pushing the limits of what a young pitcher should throw.  Murmurs say Sonnanstine will be taking over Price’s rotation spot in September.  Murmurs also say, the guy on Megan Wants a Millionaire is a murderer, but I really want to see the rest of the season.  C’mon, VH1!  This could be the best TV ever.  He goes to open a wine bottle and you try to imagine what he’s thinking about holding a corkscrew.

Ryan Doumit – I preach patience with catchers relying on the Ron Popeil, “Set It and Forget It” method.  I’m going to make an exception for Doumit because he’s been terrible.  Even the Pirates have noticed his egregiousness and moved him down the order.  When the Pirates are moving guys down the order, it’s time to abandon ship.

Hiroki Kuroda – Regarding his concussion, he said through a translator, “The first two days I had a hard time sleeping and I even had a dream about getting hit.”  The translator was Nicole Kidman.  Weird!

Travis Hafner – At this point, the only advantage to owning Hafner would be to use his head to crack open walnuts.

I’m sure even Kevin Gregg can’t believe he held the Cubs closer job as long as he did.  After witnessing Gregg’s sixth blown save and 12th gopher ball on Monday night, Piniella went into the locker room and flipped a table, screaming at a young, non-mustachioed Willie Randolph… Oh, wait, that was The Bronx is Burning.  Piniella says Carlos Marmol will take over the closer duties.  Carlos Marmol smiles, Kevin Gregg frowns and Angel Guzman shrugs.  John Grabow may also slide into the situational save picture when the Cubs face a lefty heavy ninth.  But, for now, Sweet Lou’s giving the ball to Marmol to save games.  As of today.  We shall see.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Travis Snider – Guess JP Ricciardi can’t swing a deal for Lincecum and the frozen body of Ted Williams, so Snider was called up.  Worth a flier in mixed leagues for the potential pop he can provide.  In one league, out of boredom, I dropped Ty Wigginton for Snider.  Oh, and Snider hit a homer yesterday.

Randy Ruiz – Hit his third homer in a week.  He’s 31-years-old.  You don’t get to be 31 and still a rookie without a giant pancake of mediocrity covering you.  Might continue to hit bombs for the rest of this season.  Or maybe just for the rest of this week.  My guess is he has a hot week in him, then he drops like a ton of 31-year-old rookie bricks.

Francisco Liriano – Headed to the Disgraceful List with Can’t Throw Effectivelyitis. I think he’s fallen to the point where he might actually be a solid sleeper in 2010 drafts.  We’ll have to wait for official word from February Grey as he rarely shares his info with August Grey.

Joe Mauer – 2 HRs yesterday as he bats .383 on the year.  After the game, he cured cancer.

Delmon Young – 2-for-5, 4 RBIs, his 2nd homer in the last three games and already has more homers this month than he had the entire 1st half of the year.

Ivan Rodriguez – The Rangers acquired Pudge (<–at one point this nickname wasn’t ironic).  Now the Rangers just need to acquire Jose Canseco and a bunch of syringes.  According to the Rangers, Pudge will be a backup.  I don’t see why they’d use him in that capacity.  I think most of Teagarden and Salty’s value is hurt with the addition of Pudge, not that they really had much value anyway.

Carlos Quentin – HR yesterday.  On one hand, I kinda want him to bomb the rest of this season so he goes quietly into next year’s draft.  On the other hand, I own him in a league and would like some production.  On the third hand, I want him to have surgery on his foot so there’s no problem next year.  He’s refusing surgery as of right now.  And, yes, I have three hands.

Freddy Garcia – 4 1/3 IP, 5 ER.  Right back where he left off!

Pedro Martinez/Jamie Moyer – Combined for a one run, 4 hitter.  If only Jack Lemmon and Walter Matthau were around to see it.

Alex Gordon – Was optioned to Triple-A.  As frequent commenter, Mr. Baseball, pointed out, Gordon could be a nice October call up.

Carlos Gonzalez – HR yesterday, now has 5 homers in the last seven games.  Not sure what you’re waiting for, loyal Razzball reader.

Clint Barmes – HR yesterday.  Without looking it up, who has more homers, Barmes or Hawpe?  Obviously if I’m pointing it out, it’s Barmes.  But that’s crazy.  Though I’m not sure it’s crazy good for Barmes or crazy bad for Hawpe.  I think it’s the latter, as in what Hawpe walked under before the season.

Ubaldo Jimenez – 8 IP, 2 ER.  Now has a 3.41 ERA on the year and on his way to 180 Ks on the year.  Aren’t you glad you own him and didn’t worry about whether or not he’s a Rockies pitcher?  Or don’t you wish you owned him and stopped worrying about owning a Rockies pitcher?

Lastings Milledge – Hit his first homer of the year yesterday.   Could be the start of something…

Ross Ohlendorf – 7 IP, 1 ER, 5 Ks as he got his 11th win yesterday and has a 4.15 ERA on the year.  What the ‘dorf?!  If you own Ohlendorf, you’re teetering between brilliance and insanity like an abstract painter or an MMA fighter.

Alex Avila – Hit his third homer yesterday as he bats near .450 through 20 ABs.  Worth a flier in AL-Only leagues, but he’s seeing less time behind the plate than Nicole Richie.

Matt Wieters – Hit his fourth homer to stay in front of Alex Avila, who has 180 less at-bats than Wieters.

Rick Porcello – 5 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 8 Ks vs. the Mariners.  For a guy with a 4.5 K/9, the 8 Ks can only mean one thing.  Porcello was imagining facing Ichiro Youkilis, Russell Youkilis and Franklin Youkilis aka The Big F-You.

Derek Lowe – 3 2/3 IP, 8 ER as he allowed the Mets to record ten hits in one inning, which was a new club record.  An offensive club record with Luis Castillo as your hitting star?  Lowe hadn’t looked that bad since Speidi’s wedding.  I know you wanna drop Lowe, but I wouldn’t.

Ricky Nolasco – 9 IP, 2 ER, 10 Ks.  Good to see him bounce back after his last outing left you muttering to yourself as you ate a pint of Mint Chocolate Chip.

Julio Borbon – 3-for-4, 3 steals as the Rangers stole 6 bases vs. Mauer.  Hey, he was out curing cancer!

Pat Burrell – Returned from a stiff neck with a homer.  He still has 19 to go to save his season.  I think he pulls up ten short, so he still has… You do the math!

David Price – 5 IP, 2 ER.  Price was mentioned in the rookie pitchers who might get shutdown whatchamacallit.  Now I’m hearing murmurs that Price could go to the bullpen for the return of Sonnanstine.  Act like ya know, MC Lyte!

B.J. Upton – HR yesterday.  That’s right!  You’re not the Secretaryman, you’re not the Administrativeassistantman, you’re the Bossman!  Now take charge!

Kyle Blanks – Hit an inside-the-park-homer.  The only explanation for a 300 lbs guy getting an inside-the-park-homer is the Cubs pulled their team from the field because Padres fans were littering the field with empty bottles of White Zinfandel.

The Verducci Effect as explained by Verducci, “Pitchers generally feel the effects of abusive increases in workload the next year, not the season in which they were pushed.”  So to avoid this, clubs shutdown or skip young pitchers (this applies to those 25 years old and younger).  In fantasy baseball, lots of championships are won in September, H2H and otherwise.  If you have rookie pitchers, it’s imperative — ooh, strong word — that you pay attention to which pitchers are going to be shutdown or skipped.  Anyway, here’s a list of some pitchers who may be shutdown in September:

Mat Latos – The Padres are playing right now so they can draft Nadir Bupkus in 2010, so there’s no reason to push Latos.

Brett Cecil – At about even with his workload from last year.  Ricciardi will probably put the brakes on Cecil in September, if he can’t trade him for Pujols before then.

Josh Johnson – He’s pitched a lot of innings before, but not last year and he’s already complained of a weak shoulder this year.  I don’t think he gets shutdown, but it might be an acorn to store over the winter in that giant cave of useless facts that sits on your shoulders.

Joba Chamberlain – Already 20 innings over from last year and the Yankees are already skipping him.  “Joba Rules” currently are start every 9th day and give up four runs.

Clay Buchholz – Where there’s a Yankee mention, there needs to be a Red Sox mention.  That’s in the Sports Blog Handbook.

Rick Porcello – He’s already being skipped and will probably get shutdown quick-fast in September.

Max Scherzer – Already flying past his workload from last year.  The only thing that’s keeping his innings in check is his inability to get out of the 6th inning.

David Price – Nice to see he’ll be unusable next year too so I have a reason to avoid him in drafts.

Yovani Gallardo – His jump from 2008 to 2009 will be insane, but in 2007 he pitched almost 190 innings.  So it shouldn’t be until late September when he’s technically in the red.

Brett Anderson/Dallas Braden/Trevor Cahill – Already over their workload from the previous year.  Then again, Beane will probably pitch them through September then trade them for three number one picks.

Tommy Hanson – Has about 30 innings left before he’s in the red.  If you own him, you’re already in the black, your leaguemates are blue and my bathroom walls are eggshell.

J.A. Happ threw a complete game shutout yesterday with only 6 baserunners and 10 Ks vs.  Jorge de la Rosa’s 5 IP, 7 ER, 3 Ks line.  I pretty much saw this matchup going almost exactly opposite.  Maybe I had my contacts in backwards.  dlR had won seven games in a row.  Happ was coming off two losses.  dlR’s a lefty, the Phils don’t hit lefties well.  Maybe I underestimated Happ’s desire to stay in the rotation with Pedro breathing down his neck.  This was a solid case for that, but if the Phils don’t pull Happ from the rotation they’re jeopardizing his 2010 (when people take flying cars to the ballpark).  Happ should be moved to the bullpen and Pedro should be put into the rotation.  Even if that means Pedro throws a bunch of 4 inning, 3 run games and Happ comes in in the 5th inning and throws three dominant innings.  It’s the right move for everyone and I think that’s the way the Phils should/will go.  To clarify, this is not an endorsement of Pedro.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

David Wright – HR yesterday.  As I said yesterday in the comments, “(The Mets play-by-play man, Cohen, said) that was (Wright’s) first opposite field homer in the new park.  For a guy that goes that way, that’s not great.  After all, we’re in August.”  And that’s me quoting me quoting Gary Cohen!  Cohen also said the humidity may be helping the ball carry.  So now Metco is Yellowstone instead of the Grand Canyon.  Sah-weet.

Jon Niese – Out for the season.  Surprisingly, the Mets trainer had time to help him off the field.

Gary Sheffield – Left the game with an injury.  It’s The Curse of the Shirtless Bernazard.

Pablo Sandoval – 3-for-4, .334 on the season.  I think the average comes down a bit by the end of the season (not much).  But Pablo’s been an absolute revelation this year — .374 on the season as a righty.  .314 as a lefty.  .382 in home games.  17 homers.  4 steals.  Catcher eligibility.  Same weight as Kyle Blanks and seven inches shorter.  In the beginning of the year, I mentioned that I thought Sandoval looked a lot like Edgar Martinez.  I still think it.  And he’s affectionately nicknamed Kung-Fu Panda because he’s athletic and fat.  (I would’ve went with the other athletic, fat person nickname — The Fabulous Moolah.)

Chad Gaudin – 3 1/3 IP, 6 ER.  I should’ve made a bigger deal of this when I did it, but the other day I dropped Gaudin in all of my leagues.  He’s consistently been better in road games.  A HodgePadre who can’t pitch at Petco makes no sense to me.  I don’t know what to do with that.  Makes me feel like Rainman when he can’t watch Jeopardy.

Will Venable – Another HR.  Okay, sorta on topic, sorta not, but I’ve been meaning to address this.  There’s no reason to ask me something like, “Venable or Velez for the rest of the year?”  The rest of the season?  These guys may not be good by the middle of August.  The rest of the season only applies if you play in a league where you have a limited number of moves or you’re marrying a von Bülow.  Don’t get attached to anyone in your UTIL spot, MI or fifth outfield spot.  I have Kyle Blanks, Wigginton, David Murphy, Velez, Venable, Beckham, Robot Jones and Gomes on different teams (thankfully).  I can guarantee you I won’t have 90% of those guys in two weeks.  In fact, I just dropped Gomes.  Play the hot guy and move on.  Especially at this time of the year.  Okay, school’s out, Alice Cooper.

David Murphy – 2 HRs yesterday.  As mentioned above, I own him on a few teams.

Kevin Gregg – Returned from a tired arm.  Piniella was annoyed that Gregg didn’t mention he was suffering from a tired arm over the weekend when he blew two saves, saying, “I can’t just read somebody’s mind.  I can look at the stuff, but by the time I look at the stuff, it’s a little late.  The ball’s out of the ballpark and the mojito doesn’t taste as good.”  He sounds like LaRussa.

Francisco Liriano – 5 IP, 4 ER, 12 baserunners vs. a team that was selling at the trade deadline.  You’re really wasting your time with Liriano.

Aaron Laffey – 8 IP, 0 ER.  If you pick him up, you will be Sobby.

Edwin Jackson – 8 IP, 2 ER, 8 Ks.  As you can imagine, I don’t root for players I don’t own, but I’m kinda rooting for Edwin.  He’s been at the game ever since honeys been wearin’ Sassoons.  Nice that he’s finally making good.  Man, I really love prospects who fail at first.

John Lannan – 6 IP, 2 ER, 6 Ks.  He can just as easily get shelled in his next start out vs. the Braves.  I’m pessimistically cautious going forward.

Gerardo Parra – 2-for-5 and a steal, as he bats almost .400 over his last 7 games.  I’m picking him up in a few leagues, though his lack of legit speed bores me so he may not stay on any team too long.

Ryan Roberts – Now has 3 homers in the last two days.  I still don’t think this is going anywhere you wanna go, but if you’re hurting at MI, it won’t hurt to grab him.

Erik Bedard – His shoulder is still sore and he’s headed for an MRI.  Punt!

Justin Upton – Strained oblique (vague!).  Hopefully it’s not too bad, but unfortunately these are the sort of injuries that linger like poorly chewed jalapenos.

Adam Dunn – Hit his 29th homer yesterday.  Country strong.

Jim Thome – 2 HRs yesterday.  Country stronger.

Gavin Floyd – 8 IP, 1 ER.  Absolutely incredible the year he’s putting together in his home park.  Around a two and a half ERA at home, while over 5.50 ERA away.

Jason Bay – HR yesterday.  It was his first one since July 7th.  Good sign!  Reaggravated his hamstring injury.  Bad sign!

Marc Rzepczynski – 6 IP, 4 ER, 7 Ks.  Only one walk, which is a good sign for The RZE, but I still wouldn’t own him this year.

Justin Lehr – 9 IP, 0 ER, 5 baserunners, 4 Ks.  Here’s what you do with Justin Lehr.  Photoshop Justin Lehr’s name onto Stephen Strasburg’s college stats page, then screenshot it and post the .jpg in your league messageboard.

David Price – 6 IP, 2 ER, 5 Ks, 0 walks.  Nice showing vs. the Sawx.  Very nice to see him string back-to-back starts together.  Let’s hope his next start vs. the Angels is his third step forward.

Prince Fielder – Stole a base yesterday.  After the game, he said he pictured Mota’s face on the 2nd base bag.

Garrett Jones – HR yesterday.  You know how you love a guy for a week or two when he’s out of his mind, hitting homers every game, then he goes through a week slump and you’re ready to drop him.  Then the day you prepare to drop him, he hits a homer.  Now are you excited by this latest homer or annoyed?  I kinda get annoyed.  I just want him to fail one more day so I can drop him.  I gotta talk to my shrink about what that means.

Taking his name from the Telemundo reruns of Kojak, Ubaldo Jimenez currently has a 3.86 ERA, a 3.33 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) and a 3.71 Away ERA.  Chuck in a 7.63 K/9 and a schedule right after the break of either away games or easy matchups.  In the 2nd half last year, Ubaldo had a 3.68 ERA and almost a K an inning.  I’d grab him (and not start him at home vs. the Braves or any other tough matchups at home).  Is Ubaldo going to win you a league?   Doode, I don’t even know your league.  Ubaldo is not just a cute name.  No, sir (or sire, if you’re a time traveler), he’s a matchups pitcher!  Anyway, here’s some more players to buy or sell this week in fantasy baseball:

BUY

Jorge de la Rosa – Hey, it’s all about the Rockies pitchers.  Sweet, I always wanted to lose my fantasy baseball league!  What, no more Padres hitters? Cute, random italicized voice.  He has a 3.89 ERA Away from Coors and he strikes out more than one batter per inning.  If you’re in a daily league, he’s worth a spot for matchups.

Dexter Fowler – 4 steals in the last week.  SAGNOF!

Franklin Gutierrez – In a week that saw the actor that played The Big Ragoo wash ashore with a DUI, The Big FraGu hit 2 homers and batted .429.  He’ll hit for some power and run with some speed while singing & dancing.

Rafael Furcal – He’s been on fire lately.  If you’re hurting at SS (and who isn’t), you might see if you can get him for cheap.  Though at this point any Furcal owner is probably holding onto him for their dear life, praying they get some production for where they had to draft him.

Andruw Jones – Ah, he’s playing again with a smile.  Actually, he always played with a smile, which I think was part of the problem.  Too much, too soon and all of that.  He was kinda like a child actor for baseball players.  Hopefully he avoids the methadone clinic.  Then again, Hamilton’s done okay for himself.  Jones is worth a pickup in all leagues while he’s hitting to see how long it lasts.

Homer Bailey – Maybe, possibly, perhapsly Bailey’s finally, ultimately, in the endly showing the signs of his promising promise. (The preceding was written by a high school student who just discovered a thesaurus.)

Marc Rzepczynski – The consonant monger had a great K-rate in the minors and is worth a flier in AL-Only leagues.

Garrett Jones – I went over him in last week’s Buy/Sell.  I refuse to go over a Pirates prospect again.  I have me morals, argh!

David Price - You held him for so long and now you’re going to give up on him?  Do you remember why you were holding him?  Patience, grasshopper.

Ricky Romero – Why isn’t he owned in every league?  Just give me your password and I’ll pick him up for you.

Paul Maholm – Keeping with the theme of pitchers you never thought you’d want to own, Maholm’s ERA is 4.60 and his FIP is 3.52.  His career 2nd half ERA is 3.95.  He’s allergic to strikeouts and as exciting as corduroy pants, but he’s worth a flier if available.

Joel Pineiro – What would a post about pitchers who are valuable that you don’t want to own be without Pineiro?

Brandon Morrow – Don’t forget about domani!  He’s worth owning in every league, but I’d still play matchups for now.

SELL

Mark Buehrle – Objects on your fantasy baseball team are better than they appear.

Derrek Lee – Now it’s time for everyone’s favorite game, Fantasy Baseball, Fun With Numbers.  Ding, ding, ding… Bassoon… Triangle!  Triangle!  Triangle!  Cow bell!  More cow bell!  One last ding. Player A) 38/16/58/.304, Player B) 38/16/53/.279 Player C) 37/14/45/.283/1  Player A is Paul Konerko, B is Lee and C is Kendry Morales.  I’m not saying trade Derrek Lee for a cup of Beef Vegetable soup, but if you can get a worthwhile piece and can grab a Konerko or Morales-type off waivers, it’s worth exploring.  Remember, he’s Derrek Overbay to those in the know.

Russell Branyan – Wasn’t that long ago that I had him as a Buy.  Well, times change.  People, besides Joan Rivers, get older.  And Branyan’s hitting .161 in July.  Not saying to drop him, but you’re holding a 33-year-old who has a career .237 average in almost 2300 ABs.  His average will continue to slide.

Colby Rasmus – I’m a big fan.  He’ll probably be the Rookie of the Year.  But right now he’s on a week or two binge where everyone’s telling you to Buy him.  Let’s not lose sight of the big picture here.  He’s a 20 homer rookie who gets benched against lefties.  I told you to buy him in May because I knew he could do what he’s doing, but you don’t buy him now.  You sell him now.  As in trade him, don’t drop him.  You need alligator blood when the bettor check raises to you.

Jose Contreras – In May of last year, Contreras had a 2.09 ERA in over 43 innings.  In June, he had a 6.83 ERA.  In his last 43 and 2/3 innings, he has a 2.06 ERA.  Beware of a correction in the road.

Jair Jurrjens – On May 22nd, I said, “Jar-Jar’s a lot closer to a 3.75 ERA pitcher, instead of a 1.96 ERA.  His Ks are low and his luck is high.”  And that’s me quoting me!  Since that faithful day when my Sell post intersected with Jurrjens, he’s gone 2-5/3.86/1.42/43 in just over 53 innings.  That’s much closer to the pitcher he is.  Sorry, but at least I didn’t title this post, “Jar-Jar Sinks.”