As I begin to prepare my projections and rankings for the 2017 season, I like to look back on the previous season’s attempt to not only assess my work, but also to learn how I can do better next time. Projecting statistics in any sport is a tedious and arduous task. The variables, formulas and algorithms are constantly changing and if you don’t adapt with them, your results will lose their precision and accuracy. However, I’d like to make one point blatantly clear, projections are nothing more than calculated guesses. Some are better than the next, but none are even close to perfect.

Let’s see how I fared with my 2016 efforts. For all positions I will provide the following six numbers: projected points, actual points, projected rank, actual rank, projected points per plate appearance and actual points per plate appearance. I am including points per plate appearance because it helps put a player’s projections vs performance into perspective when they’ve missing time due to injury. For pitchers I’ve replaced points per plate appearance with points per start. I’ve also included a column showing the percentage by which my points projections were off. Any player with an “n/a” listed in this column is because that player spent at least 30 days on the disabled list.

Lastly, a quick note about the rankings listed in this post. These rankings are based purely on points. This season I plan to provide additional rankings that allow me to adjust them based on three important factors: intuition, gut and my sporadic conversations with Nostradumass.

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Here we are, the third of four posts about the Couch Managers 2017 Industry Mock Draft. Previously, I posted recaps of rounds 1-6 and rounds 7-12. This post is for rounds 13-18. The final post will be for rounds 19-23. Complicated stuff, I know. But try to keep up.

In case you have yet to see my previous posts, here is a quick recap of the league rules for this mock:

This mock was for a 15-team, 5×5 roto, with 23 roster spots made up of 9 pitchers (9), 1 spot for each position (8), a second catcher (1), 2 more outfielders (2), one corner infielder (1), one middle infielder (1), and one utility position (1).

As I have done with the other posts, I’ll post the results below by round and will offer a few of my thoughts for each round…

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As we continue our 2017 fantasy baseball rankings, we head into the homestretch of ranking hitters.  For those confused, homestretch isn’t when you shoot up late at night, remembering there’s a Dorito under the couch and go reaching for it.  That is the opening to my short film, Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dorito.  The main character has just been Frito-Laid off and is described as Pringley and Ruffled.  Last year, this post had Adam Duvall, Jackie Bradley Junz, Jay Brucespringsteen and a bunch of vomit.  So, there is some value to still be found in the outfielders, it’s just a matter of finding it, like in the landmark film, Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dorito.  As with the other rankings, my projections are included and where I see tiers starting and stopping.  Anyway, here’s the top 80 outfielders for 2017 fantasy baseball:

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We’re under a month away until pitchers and catchers report to two of the worst states in the Union. This is a good time to check-in with some of those idiots who ruined your fantasy season last year. Each week I’m going to be taking a look at any player who is listed as injured or is about to come back from injury or who is just an injury waiting to happen–looking at you Mike Stanton–I’ll call you Giancarlo when you start acting like Giancarlo. This first article might be a little long, but hopefully I won’t have to cover 14 injuries in a single week during the regular season.

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Greetings, friends. I hopped over to the football side of things once last year’s baseball season ended, but now I’m back. And apparently, I am such a disturbed individual that I am doing fantasy baseball mock drafts in early January. And, I am writing about them. And, well, I just wanted to start another sentence with and because it feels so wrong but so right at the same time. Anyway, moving on.

I was fortunate enough to be invited to the Couch Managers 2017 Industry Mock Draft, and we’re going to recap it here. This mock was for a 15-team, 5×5 roto, with 23 roster spots made up of 9 pitchers (9), 1 spot for each position (8), a second catcher (1), 2 more outfielders (2), one corner infielder (1), one middle infielder (1), and one utility position (1). As long as I did that math correctly, that is 23 spots.

Below, I will provide the results for the first six rounds and a give my thoughts for each round. I’ll do the same for rounds 7-12, 13-18, and 19-23 in subsequent posts. I’ll try to keep it brief. All we really care about are the results here, right? Feel free to tell me how awesome or crappy you think my team is, along with what you think were the best and worst picks of the draft or the different rounds…

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I would call fantasy baseball sleepers my “All-Want Team,” except it’s not always that black/white for Grey, said the color scale.  David Peralta was a surefire “Want” last year; this year, he’s a “Want for the Right Price.”  Peralta had three homers and two steals through the first five weeks of the season.  That comes out to about 16 HRs, 11 SBs over the course of the season.  It’s not a completely fair prorating job because he wasn’t hot once in that time.  You’d figure for at least a portion of the season he’d heat up and raise his season stats.  Though, maybe he would’ve gotten colder too.  Alas, we’re left with prorating five weeks out to a season because on May 8th began the dreaded Day-to-Day Dance of Day-to-Dayness.  Injury update on May 8th, “David Peralta is out with a bruised forearm.”  On May 9th, “David Peralta missed his 2nd straight day with a bruised forearm.”  On May 10th, “Peralta visited a wrist specialist.” Don’t you love how the injury isn’t even the right body part when it starts?  On May 12th, “Peralta’s wrist exam showed no structural damage.”  Wait, this is when it gets good.  On May 13th, “Peralta says he won’t need the DL.”  Does anyone have any question how this is about to turn out?  On May 15th, “Peralta hit the 15-day DL with wrist inflammation.  It’s believed to be precautionary.”  Please tell me you know where this is going.  On August 10th, “Peralta underwent season-ending wrist surgery.”  The final bit of injury news is, “Peralta will be ready for the start of spring training.”  I guess I’m the idiot here, because I know injury news is always five to seven times worse (exact science!) than what is relayed to us and I’m choosing to believe he will be ready for spring training, even though his previous eight months is littered with land mines on the dance floor of the Day-to-Day Dance of Day-to-Dayness.  So, what can we expect from David Peralta for 2017 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?

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Stephen Strasburg hitting the disabled list puts the punctuation mark on the end of my fantasy baseball season. This has not been a season I’d like to remember. Despite having the third most points scored in my head-to-head points league, I am sitting one spot out of last place. The only take home is that I will have the second pick in next year’s draft. Can’t wait. Seriously though I couldn’t be more ready for fantasy football at this point. However, I still have an obligation to my four readers. Wait, do I? Grey? Ok fine! Not everyone is in the same position as me (or is it “as I”). I guess it’s whatever I write. It’s not like the grammar police is one of my four followers. And if they are, what are the chances they will correct me.

So where did I go wrong this season? Coming off a championship season, how did I fall so far? Was it just bad luck or bad decisions? Or was it the fact that I had last pick?

Note: My Fantasy Football RCL is almost full and drafts tonight! Join here

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Yesterday, Carlos Correa (4-for-8, 4 runs, 4 RBIs) hit two homers across the doubleheader (three in last three games), making it look easy like North Korea during the ‘imaginary’ Olympics that are being aired in North Korea.  “It looks like the U.S.A. is going to take 1st place…”  Bad editing splice job, 20 second lag, bad voiceover, “And North Korea just edges out 1st place!  Wow, this will be…” Bad editing splice job, obvious voiceover, “North Korea’s one billionth medal win.”   By the way, are you as surprised as me that during Olympic competitions you haven’t see any of this:  “Okay, Argentina will now be serving for the win.  Whoa, I think the Spanish coach just unleashed a nest of mosquitos!  He’s Zika’ing them out!”  Seriously, no one is Zika’ing out their opponents.  So, Carlos Correa found some of his footing yesterday that he showed last August/September.  Wait, is he only an August and September player?  Septacular!  Now he’s going to get to 25+ HRs on the year and be overdrafted again next year.  We need a bad editing splice job to remove his 2nd half stats for next preseason.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

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Yesterday, Carlos Gomez was designated for assignment.  Outfielders in the tier of guys in the preseason I told you not to draft:  Pence, Kemp, Gomez, Schwarber, Hanley, Corey Dickerson, Ellsbury, Brantley, Adam Jones and Carlos Gonzalez.  I’ll take a 7-for-10.  You believed still in the preseason about Carlos Gomez, didn’t you?  *touches finger to nose but not for a sobriety test*  I’m more surprised by the people shocked by Gomez’s fall from grace.  *makes crazy, rolly finger motion by ear*  Anyone who saw him in his prime knew he was gonna find a steep cliff.  Even when he broke out, the underlying stats told you something had to change or he wasn’t going to have continued success.  *sticks finger in nose, smiles*  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

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Manny Machado put up his right hand yesterday to measure it against a hand drawing every clubhouse has posted on its wall.  The drawing is of Mark Whiten’s hand that once held four baseballs in it.  Four baseballs for the four homers he hit in one game.  In the Padres’ clubhouse, this hand has been removed because it’s just a not-so-subtle reminder of what will never be.  In the Indians’ clubhouse, the hand is made into a turkey to celebrate the first Thanksgiving.  In the Astros’ clubhouse, the hand has been cut out and fashioned into a t-shirt for Altuve.  Imagine if Donald Trump wins the presidency and throws out a first pitch.  He may never make it to the field, too distracted in the clubhouse by measuring his hands against Whiten.  Yesterday, Machado came a fingernail short of the hand, hitting three homers with seven RBIs.  Now has 25 homers on the year with a .307 average.  Terrific, stupendous, adjective!  What’s more remarkable is he does not have one steal all year.  Almost as crazy, he’s only attempted three.  Did he have a knee transplant this offseason with McCutchen as the donor?  Machado stole 20 bases last year.  To go to none?  Wow, his feet definitely don’t measure up to the Rickey Henderson foot drawings in each clubhouse.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw this weekend in fantasy baseball:

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