Fantasy Baseball Advice

Already went over the top 20 outfielders for 2008 (and the top 20 catchers, 1st basemen, 2nd basemen, 3rd basemen and shortstops for 2008), but outfielders (and starters) will need to go 40 deep to get the full picture. The lack of offense continues into the top forty outfielders (and will be seen in the reverse for top forty pitchers as it works in their favor). BTW, there was some slight confusion as to the rankings, I’m basing them on ESPN’s Player Rater. That’s why I can say I’d prefer Carlos Lee to Vlad, even though Lee is ranked by ESPN after him. I use the ESPN Player Rater so I have a neutral base, because I don’t think it’s fair for me to say I ranked B.J. Upton 10th in the preseason and now I conveniently rank him 10th again. No, I shouldn’t rank him again. Upton was ranked 10th in the preseason by me and ranked 21st by ESPN at the end of the year. Now whether you trust or agree with ESPN is a whole different matter. To further the discussion, Rudy will shortly be bringing his Point Shares to a computer screen near you for our final say on 2008 performances. Anyway, here’s the top 21 - 40 Outfielders for 2008 in fantasy baseball and how they compared to where we originally ranked them:

21. B.J. Upton - Already covered him in top 20 2nd basemen for 2008. Preseason Rank #10, Preseason Predictions:  100/30/85/.280/27, Final Numbers: 85/9/67/.273/40

22. Randy Winn - I’m pretty sure Winn was on waivers in some of my leagues and I ignored him. To my detriment? Perhaps, but a 10/25 season is nice from your 2nd basemen, not your 2nd outfielder. (This is what I mean by not agreeing with ESPN rankings.) Unranked in Preseason, Final Numbers:  84/10/64/.306/25

23. Vladimir Guerrero - Vlad’s numbers are a pale imitation of his former glory and getting paler. Giving the nickname, “Vlad the Impaler,” a whole new meaning. Preseason Rank #7, Preseason Predictions:  105/32/125/.315/3, Final Numbers:  85/27/91/.303/5

24. Alfonso Soriano - When you consider he only played in 109 games, these are great numbers and right in line with his predictions. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again (right here, in fact). A player that gets injured isn’t the worst thing for your fantasy team. If you were to have Soriano for all of his healthy games then, say, Elijah Dukes for all of Soriano’s injured games, you had great numbers at that position. Preseason Rank #4, Preseason Predictions:  115/35/75/.280/20, Final Numbers:  76/29/75/.280/19

25. Magglio Ordonez - …Whereas someone like Mags who gives you 561 at-bats and only 21 homers isn’t ideal. Maybe Vlad or Al-So can teach Mags how to give these stats in 150 less at-bats and then get injured. Preseason Rank #18, Preseason Predictions:  100/30/110/.300, Final Numbers:  72/21/103/.317

26. Carlos Lee - Another guy that would rank much higher if I were ranking them. Chuck Lee fought the power a bit less this year because of a fractured pinkie, but if you grabbed someone like, say, Ethier for the final month-plus while Lee was out, you had a very productive outfielder. Preseason Rank #5, Preseason Predictions:  90/35/120/.295/7, Final Numbers:  61/28/100/.314/4

27. Xavier Nady - Let’s look at what I said on April 7th, “…he’s starting the season on fire. Could he keep it going? …history tells us no. This won’t continue. Know what you can’t do? Let him sit on the waiver wire. Don’t drop Carlos Lee for him, but every year some players come out of nowhere.” And that’s me quoting me! You gotta also like how I told you not to drop Carlos Lee for him, cause I knew Lee would come in just above him in the year end rankings.  Natch! Unranked in Preseason, Final Numbers:  76/25/97/.305/2

28. Raul Ibanez - The following is a story of you and Raul Ibanez — You grabbed Ibanez early on when he hit five home runs in April, then dropped him in May when he hit 2 HRs, then briefly considered grabbing him in July when he hit 6 HRs then kicked yourself for not picking him up in August when he hit 7 HRs, then finally grabbed in September when he hit .233 with 1 HR. Unranked in Preseason, Final Numbers:  85/23/110/.293/2

29. Willy Taveras - Sixty-eight steals and sixty-four runs. One more time for those who think a hyphen is a minus sign. Taveras had 68 steals and only 64 runs. In-cred-ible or incredible. Unranked in Preseason, Final Numbers: 64/1/26/.251/68

30. Torii Hunter - While talking about Abreu, I mentioned the other day how an outfielder going 20/20 is the best way to go unnoticed by fantasy teams. Well, here’s another guy that is in MLB’s Witness Protection Program with season after season of 20/20. Too bad Ambiorix Burgos is a pitcher; he could use this sort of anonymity right about now. Preseason Rank #17, Preseason Predictions:  85/25/100/.275/20, Final Numbers:  85/21/78/.278/19

31. Corey Hart - Corey Hart took a dump on teams in September with zero home runs and a .173 average. Either the pennant race got the best of him or all his bad ball swinging. Probably a bit of both. Preseason Rank #19, Preseason Predictions:  95/22/75/.280/25, Final Numbers:  76/20/91/.268/23

32. Milton Bradley - He reached 400 at-bats for the first time since 2004 and, even more impressively, he had zero meltdowns (unless you count the time the Royal announcer had to lock himself in the booth to avoid Bradley attacking him, but since Bradley never got to him, we’ll give Bradley a pass). His healthy season showed that A) he is no longer a threat for 15 steals and B) he still misses close to 40 games even when healthy. Unranked in Preseason, Final Numbers: 78/22/77/.321/5

33. Curtis Granderson - I didn’t like him at all coming into this season. I felt like expectations were unreal. He turned out to prove me right and wrong. Right, because his final numbers were a letdown. Wrong, because he did take a step forward in walks and average against lefties. Preseason Rank #14, Preseason Predictions:  115/27/85/.280/25, Final Numbers:  112/22/66/.280/12

34. Andre Ethier - In the beginning of the year, The Pierre Situation™ infected the Dodgers’ outfield water supply to make it undrinkable. Luckily, Torre filtered Jones and Pierre so Ethier could run hot until his wife’s water broke in late September. Unranked in Preseason, Final Numbers: 90/20/77/.305/6

35. Mark DeRosa - Already covered him in top 20 2nd basemen for 2008. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 103/21/87/.285/6

36. Jayson Werth - Did the Dogers give up too early on Werth or did they realize they had exactly the same player in Ethier? Both probably. Unranked in Preseason, Final Numbers: 73/24/67/.273/20

37. Alexei Ramirez - Already covered him in top 20 2nd basemen for 2008. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 65/21/77/.290/13

38. Conor Jackson - Already went over Jackson in the top 20 1st basemen for 2008. Unranked in Preseason, Final Numbers:  87/12/75/.300/10

39. David DeJesus - I know your first inclination is to see DeJesus and think he was underrated, but “Blink,” you’re wrong. Sorry, Malcolm Gladwell. You were better off running hot waiver wire pickups out there every week than this schomhawk. A 12/11 in over 500 at-bats is not productive. Unranked in Preseason, Final Numbers:  70/12/73/.307/11

40. Hunter Pence - If he can get his steals up a bit, he might be able to snitch on the mafia and sneak his way into the MLB Witness Protection 20/20 Program. Preseason Rank #22, Preseason Predictions:  95/22/75/.290/17, Final Numbers:  78/25/83/.269/11

On the Greek isle of Fantasia Baseballikis they have a proverb, “Never give up on a fantasy baseball player until he reaches full maturity and never spit in a woman’s face unless her mustache is on fire.” Let’s tackle the first half first, shall we? In 2008, Marakakis went 106/20/87/.306/10. These numbers won’t necessarily blow you away, until you realize in 2009 Markakis will only be 25 years old. Yes, he’s still ascending the escalator of Fantasy Baseball Worth. Hopefully he won’t get off until he reaches 2nd round value. His splits are promising. Against lefties, he hit .297, .310 vs. righties, .282/.330 Home/Away splits, almost even on Day/Night splits and .301 Pre-All-Star break and .313 Post. His 2nd half steals are a concern, as he stole only one base as opposed to nine steals in the first half. Maybe he only steals five next year, or maybe he steals 15. (Any player whose game is not steals can’t be relied on to ever steal more than 15.) The aspect of Markakis’s game that really needs to step up is his power. As of right now, I’d hope for 30 home runs, but wouldn’t expect more than 25 in 2009. So why am I suggesting you keep Markakis for 2009? His power is still developing and his walks are up. Throw in a five tools skill set and you have the makings of a great one. I am Sparkakis! As for the 2nd half of that aforementioned Greek proverb, it’s a good rule of thumb, but make sure you’re not spitting Ouza. Anyway, here’s some more fantasy baseball keepers to keep and not keep for next season:

KEEP

Alexei Ramirez - He’s a premenopausal Alfonso Soriano.

Hunter Pence - The dealer’s showing 25 HRs, 10 steals and a .275 average. That’s a push.

DON’T KEEP

Ryan Doumit - Doumit ranked #4 on the top 20 catcher list for 2008. You know what? He could come in number one next year, I still don’t think you should keep him. He’s not going to be overvalued at the drafts so you can get him back if you want and he’s injury-prone. Reggie Roby his ass.

David DeJesus - If he stays healthy, he could be Yunel Escobar. I’ll take one small bleh with a side order of bleh-bleh.

First the Brewers fire their manager in September, then they pitch CC on three days rest for about a month after letting him throw 150 pitches per start for two months and now they rush back their prized pitcher, Yovani Gallardo. The Brewers are officially trying to choke worse than the Mets, while the Mets are showing they weren’t one-flop wonders last year. Too bad the Astros and the Diamondbacks just flat out sucked for three months or they’d be battling for the Wild Card. Gallardo will probably only get to the fourth or fifth inning so he might not have much value. Then again, the Brewers may let him throw 100+ pitches until he turns the ball over to Sabathia for the final three innings. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Mark DeRosa - HR yesterday and then a leg injury forced him out of the game. Ah, the agony and the ecstasy… What? I was being poetic.

Hank Blalock - HR yesterday for the 4th game in a row. I told you to pick up Blalock two days before he hit his first. But whatever, you like to be difficult. It’s your thing.

Michael Young - 4-for-4, I think he still has, like, a fractured finger or something. If not scoring the winning run would help the Rangers go into extra innings and allow Young a chance for 200 hits, he would not score that run.

Carlos Zambrano - Since his no-hitter, he’s been a crap satay.

Willy Taveras - Done for the season with a stress fracture. Back date this to August. Dude stole 68 bases this year and collected only 64 runs. According to Elias Sports Bureau, this is the first time in a long time, maybe even forever, that someone stole as many as 68 bases and failed to score that many runs. Okay, maybe they didn’t say that. But here are some things heard around Elias Sports Bureau’s office in the last week, “Gloria, Roy’s secretary, said ‘It’s Jayson Stark calling’ thirty-eight times this week for a new office record,” “Roy said ‘Tell Stark I’m in a meeting’ a record thirty-eight times this week,” and “For a record ten times in one day, Mike coughed “loser” when asked if he was going to William’s birthday party.”

David DeJesus - Left yesterday’s game with a high hip flexor something or other. May not play again this year. Buh-but the Royals are fighting for 4th place!

Edinson Volquez - Likely done for the year. Finally drafting Cueto and Harang before Volquez looks like a smart move.

Andy Pettitte - Done for the year. Aceves will start on Saturday. I like that start, friend.

Ryan Franklin - Got another save. Looks like he’s the Cards closer for the final weekend. Do take note, save vultures.

Manny Delcarmen - There’s more vulture saves where that came from, carcass breath. The Sawx rested Papelbon and gave the save to Manny of Carmen.

Cameron Maybin - 3-for-3 with a steal before leaving the game with a stiff hip. Two stiff hips and he wouldn’t be able to walk out of the bar. Ladies and gentlemen, Kevin Eubanks.

Rafael Furcal - Was activated from the DL, and got into the game as a pinch hitter in the 8th inning. I wouldn’t expect too much from him these final few days; Torre says he’ll play “here and there. And I love cannolis.”

Adam Wainwright - In his last start of the year, gave up two earned in six innings. Decent return from injury in the 2nd half. That real upside of his struggles this year will be the fresh arm he’ll have next year. He’ll be on 75% of my teams next year, fo sho.

Mark Reynolds - His 199th K last night to tie the major league record. Earlier in the year, Rudy and I had a friendly wager going for who would strikeout the most, Cust or Reynolds. Unless Cust Ks eight more times than Reynolds this weekend, I should have it locked up. In other words, this bet is still very much undecided.

Max Scherzer - 5 IP, 2 ER. Last start of the year and he’s had prettier ones. I will write a lot more about Jobacum this offseason.

Todd Jones - He’s thrown his last 76 MPH fastball as he announced his retirement in his The Sporting News column. Other topics he covered in his column, “Real Men Rely on Finesse,” “Pussies Throw Fast,” and “Where have you gone, Fu Manchu mustache?” Pour some prune juice out for Jones.

David Price made his 1st major league start yesterday against the Orioles. He went five and one-third innings and gave up one earned run. He was solid through four innings, but then his stool got loose in the fifth when he walked in a run. What I saw, he looked dazzling at times and every bit the hyped uber-prospect with the bland name that he’s supposed to be. He’ll be an early Rookie of the Year candidate next year, but there’s a lot of baseball still for him to play this year. Will he be an October hero or will he struggle? Will he blaze through spring training or hit Manual Noriega-sized facial craters? Stay tuned! Or not! Or yacht! Your choice! Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Rich Harden - The Cubs begin to setup their playoff rotation by pushing Harden’s start from Tuesday to Thursday. (This is another reason why H2H is lame. You have playoffs in your league when many players aren’t even interested in the outcome of the games. This is also a solid reason to load up on Mets, Phillies, Diamondbacks, Dodgers and Brewers as they fight for their lives.)

Chris Dickerson - Looking invulnerable for almost a month until his one weakness was exposed, the Achilles. Dickerson has an Achilles stress fracture and he’s done for the year. Don’t worry, Dickerson, I’ll make sure you show up on a sleeper list or two in ‘09. Toodles for now.

Hanley Ramirez - 0-for-5 as he returned from shoulder pain to watch his Marlins get officially eliminated. The Marlins might shutdown Hanley before the Nots’ series to avoid further injury for their prized shortstop. Unless they feel compelled to give all the paying Nots fans their money’s worth, which is approximately $4.75.

Jake Peavy - Goes from a two start pitcher to a one start pitcher as his start is pushed back from Tuesday to Thursday. Peaved? Yeah, you are.

Brandon Webb - Won his 22nd game and puts the Cy Young pressure on Lincecum to throw 140 pitches next time out. A Cy Young is soooo (I almost went with two extra snarky ohs, but I felt like three was necessary) much more important than a healthy pitcher next year.

Joey Devine - Got a Hold yesterday as he entered the eighth. Well, there goes his save potential for this last week, right? Not so fast, Ralph Tresvant. Ziegler blew the save and was pulled from the ninth for Embree.

Ervin Santana - 8 IP, 1 ER, 9 Ks. On the year, he has an incredible 209/46 K/BB ratio. In case there’s anyone out there that doesn’t follow these sorts of statistics, that ratio is Santanalicious, as in Johan.

Kelly Johnson - HR yesterday. You’re going to look at his 82/12/67/.285/10 numbers next year and think, “He’s exactly what I need at 2nd base!” And he’s not bad, but, man, he gets yawnstipating for months at a time. BTW, my preseason projections for him were 85/17/65/.275/12. Pretty close, huh? I can’t wait until I go over all my preseason predictions this offseason to see how I did — all starting next week! That’s right, put on your excitement shoes!

Stephen Drew - HR yesterday. Hitting .351 with 5 HRs in September. Ain’t that right, Drew? True.

Dan Wheeler - Save yesterday. Bee tee dubya, Percival is not even with the team as he gets readied for the postseason (and middle age).

David DeJesus - 4-for-4 yesterday, in the midst of a 13-game hitting streak and batting over .350 in September. Groove is in DeJesus.

Miguel Cabrera - Lower back tightness forced him out of the game. Make sure you have a backup because the Tigers will not press him into action if he’s hurting.

Hank Blalock - HR yesterday and still healthy. Hank, there’s only six more days you have to live in that bubble! Keep on rollin’!

Yo, Hater Bell, here. Just returned from Tijuana where I stocked up on thirty cases of Rohypnol and three nights worth of donkey show ideas. The things you can do with Tequila, duct tape and a roll of quarters. Now to hatch my plan to take out ESPN’s top fantasy analyst, Eric Karabell, at the next fantasy baseball summit in Spring ‘09. Until then, I gots to take out his heart with my words. En garde, bizznatch!

Karabaloney decided to play with his Speak and Spell again as the ESPN “experts” went over their top 340 for the 2nd half rankings. There’s so many things here that make me long for a decent feedback form on the ESPN page that sometimes I find myself filling in the random restaurant comment card with Karabell suggestions:

The dash of cinnamon on the lamb was not lost on me. Delicate enough for taste, but not too fragrant. Now if you can only explain ranking Michael Cuddyer at 181!

So Kosuke Fukudome was ranked 112 overall using ESPN’s mathematical ranking system:

Jack Daniels(Radio Shack calculator)²= Top 340 Fantasy Baseball Players.

Karabell in his infinitesimal wisdom ranked Fukudome 102. Here’s the Karalogic:

Whille Fukudome hasn’t been quite what we thought, let’s remember this is his first year in the states. I think he’ll hit for a better average in the second half since he does take walks and has seen what stuff MLB pitchers have. Plus, let’s not underestimate what a .300 average is worth. It’s underrated, especially since I see him ending the year there, which means he hits .320 or so over the final two months. I see him ending up with 15 homers and 15 steals, which, combined with a good batting average, makes him near a top-100 player.

You need a Bachelors in Stupidity to fully understand this, but luckily I have my Masters in Throwing Out the Karabage. Let’s see, underestimate what a .300 average is worth? It’s worth .300, right? So he’s helping you about as much as who? Skip Schumaker? Excuse me while I yawn. That’s assuming Fukudome doesn’t continue to nosedive in average as he’s currently doing.

What if he’s more than his overly optimistic .300 average. Let’s say Fukudome gives you a little bit of everything. That’s more vauable, isn’t it? It sure is. So let’s look at the most comparable player, David Dejesus. (Actually, he’s not completely comparable because he did better than Fukudome in the 1st half, but let’s say he is comparable.) If Karabell said Fukudome should be at 102, where’s Dejesus on the list? Dead last at 340. Well, that makes sense. Yo, Karabell, go get your shinebox!