Fantasy Baseball Advice

The top 50 fantasy baseball prospects list aims to provide a list solely for fantasy baseball purposes. Due to fantasy baseball’s immediacy of statistical production, players are not necessarily ranked based on tools or projections far into the future, but instead, current production. Aspects taken into consideration are fantasy baseball’s positional scarcity, Razzball philosophies, scouting reports and personal biases. Please keep in mind that this is published before the end of the 2011 season. Therefore, it is highly possible that some rookies on this list may lose their rookie eligibility (e.g. Kyle Seager), others who were expected to continue to acquire enough experience by the end of the season who may not (e.g. Brett Lawrie). Revision in the late off-season shall occur. There are highly touted names omitted from the Top 50 list that some might believe warrant a ranking that don’t fall into the prior caveat(s). Before lamenting, please check the Honorable Mention section. The most notable omissions are either blocked, provide more real world baseball value, need to repeat performance because of their pedigree, have GM’s avoiding Super-2 status or are rebounding from injuries. The signings in the upcoming weeks of the offseason and Spring Training could cause many players to rise or fall. Disputes, inquiries and general feedback is welcomed and encouraged. To be included, I used MLB eligibility requirements — less than 130 ABs or 50 IP, though I’ve made a few exceptions where I felt it was warranted. See Top 50 Fantasy Prospects for 2012, Part I for the complete list.

26. Trevor Bauer – RHP (SP) – ARI: Considered MLB-ready outta the gate when drafted in June 2011. Keith Law’s pre-draft scouting report indicates, “[His] fastball-curveball combination is [...] big league-caliber … shown he can get deep into games with regularity despite the lack of prototypical physicality. His heavy college workload — topping 130 pitches in the majority of his starts this spring [2011] … [workload] could impact whether he helps the Arizona Diamondbacks this season or what role in which that would come.” He has a plus-fastball sits between 92 to 95 MPH with good life and a 12-to-6 plus-curveball. His changeup needs work. Control and command is spotty and inconsistent, typically derived from overthrowing. Mechanically the only true concern is him locking his left knee upon delivery of the baseball. There is concern of possible knee injuries in the future. Beyond this quibble, his stuff is not in question, it is his combination of control and command, being overworked in college, and possible mechanically driven medical concern.

27. Martin Perez – LHP (SP) – TEX: Texas is loaded at pitcher, but you can never have enough young arms. Perez followed up a poor 2010 in Double-A with improved numbers across the board at Double-A but a regression in production when promoted to Triple-A. I see a midseason call-up. See Scouting the Unknown article for further details.

28. Garrett Richards – LHP (SP) – ATL: The Angels gave Richards two spot starts in 2011 in which he struggled. Prior to 2011 and before reaching more advanced hitters (read: before Double-A), he was able to produce high strikeout rates. In 2011, at Double-A, Richards strikeout rates plummeted from mid-9 K/9 to 6.5 K/9. Projects as a mid-rotation starter who pitches to contact or a power reliever.

29. Zack Cox – 3B – St.L: David Freese is not the answer for the Cardinals at third base. The 22-year-old Cox had an excellent 2011 season. In 344 Double-A at-bats he slashed .294/.357/.436 with 29 XBH (10 Hr) and a 69:29 K:BB ratio. Is considered a “gifted hitter with strength and strike-zone awareness.” Offensively reminds me of Ryan Zimmerman.

30. Kyle Seager – 2B/3B – SEA: By the end of the season, his rookie eligibility may be void. The Mariners hot-corner hasn’t been the same since Adrian Beltre left. Seager has the flexibility to play multiple positions. Barring an injury, would get the nod over Alex Liddi at this point. Seager has shown to be of average power – gap mostly – produces a decent average and the occasional stolen base.

31. Eric Surkamp – LHP (SP) – SF: Earlier this year, I said, “Surkamp is a soft-tossing lefty … Fastball sits in the upper 80s with heavy sinking action. Changeup and curveball are both plus pitches. Has a three-quarter delivery that creates good deception and he has strong command of all his pitches.”

32. Bryce Harper – RF – WAS: The hype will start early in April and build to a crescendo in June. I don’t think he’ll be up before August at the earliest. I’d expect Mike Trout-type results upon his first call-up. In his prime, I think he’ll be similar to Ryan Braun in his prime. This is all assuming no major setbacks or injuries in 2012.

33. Jake Odorriz – RHP (SP) – KC: The Royals are loaded with pitching prospects. As exemplified by Danny Duffy, Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas Johnny Giavotella, Salvador Perez, Aaron Crow and Tim Collins’ 2011 call-ups, the Royals 2012 roster should see a heavy turnover, especially at pitcher. Will start out of the gate or be a June call up. See Scouting the Unknown article for further details.

34. Joe Benson – OF – MIN: The Twins best power hitting prospect. Injury prone. When healthy has shown strong plate discipline, above-average power (25 to 30 home run ceiling), and ability to steal the occasional base. He’s a Hunter Pence with a slightly lower average and a few less steals, if/when healthy.

35. John Lamb – LHP (SP) – KC: See half-inch above in the Odorizzi blurb. See Scouting the Unknown article for further.

36. Chris Marrero – 1B – WAS: With Mike Morse coming into his own in 2011, the Nationals will not have to rush Marrero into the starting lineup. He’s proven himself at each level. In his prime, projects as a mid-20 home run hitter. Currently, I would expect a Freddie Freeman-type rookie season: .291/.352/.461 and high-teen home runs over a full season. See Scouting the Unknown article for further.

37. Dellin Betances – RHP (SP) – NYY: As the Yankees best pitching prospect, high expectations will be placed on him, especially with the recent back-end rotation woes for the Bronx Bombers. June call-up looks to be in place. See Scouting the Unknown article for further.

38. Liam Hendriks – RHP (SP) – MIN: With Kyle Gibson’s injury concern, Hendriks becomes the next best pitching prospect ready for the show in Minnesota. Not that the Twins will rush him, but their rotation is easily trumped by the Braves Triple-A rotation. See Scouting the Unknown article for further.

39. Mike Montgomery – LHP (SP) – KC: Will need to improve command, limit walks and gain more consistency to be more than an AL-Only add. See Scouting the Unknown article for further.

40. Kirk Nieuwenhuis – RF – NYM: To quote my Scouting article, “possesses good all-around, broad skill-set played at a balls-to-the-wall approach. Meaning, he has all tools ranging from fringe-average to average tools that make him a solid player but unspectacular at any specific skill. Hitting approach is strong, attempting to utilize all fields and working the count. Still projects as a .270 hitter with gap power within his line-drive swing.” Strikeouts will always be a concern. He’s one Angel Pagan injury away from seeing significant playing time in 2012. See Scouting the Unknown article for further.

41. Steve Lombardozzi – 2B/IF – WAS: The Nationals were unwilling to give him up in a trade for Denard Span. Of course they did, they are the same player but at different positions.

42. Robbie Erlin – LHP (SP) – SD: Good strikeout potential, excellent future home ballpark, and amazing control. Yes, please. Listed lower than my praise because I don’t see the Padres rushing him to the majors.

43. Neil Ramirez – RHP (SP) – TEX: Similar to Erlin, I see the Rangers allow him to accumulate more experience at Triple-A. He started the 2011 season at High-A and was promoted to Triple-A and then demoted to Double-A. Needs to improve command. See Scouting the Unknown article for further.

44. Andrew Oliver – LHP (SP) – DET: I think he gets pushed to the bullpen due to inconsistency and command concerns. See Scouting the Unknown article for further.

45. Matt Dominguez – 3B – FLA: A strong NL-only and deep league play. He’ll sustain his major league career through his excellent defensive skills not his average-at-best bat. Projects to be a .260 hitter with average power (15 home runs). So David Freese.

46. Jaff Decker – LF – SD: At some point, his old-player skill-set (power and walks with poor defense) will catch up to his prospect value. Currently, I see him being a similar type of player as Jack Cust. That’s both a compliment and a red flag. May need to traded to an AL team to play DH. See Scouting the Unknown article for further.

47. Casey Kelly – RHP (SP) – SD: Similar predicament to Robbie Erlin, but without strikeout potential – not even close. His home park causes his value to rise. See Scouting the Unknown article for further details.

48. Grant Green – SS – OAK: Cliff Pennington is keeping the spot warm for the future A’s shortstop. Better gap power than home run power (projects as average power), strong average, an occasional steal. Defensively, question marks are raise about his efficiency. Think a .300 hitter with 12 to 15 home runs and 10 steals from shortstop over the course of the season. See Scouting the Unknown article for further details.

49. Nick Franklin – SS – SEA: Injuries slowed his 2011 season down. Projects for a .280, 12 to 15 home run and 10 steal player. He plays good defense, has a smooth swing and average speed. His 2010 season was bolstered by his environment (California League). With Dustin Ackley manning second, Franklin appears to remain at shortstop. See Scouting the Unknown article for further details.

50. Travis d’Arnaud – C – TOR: Won the Eastern League MVP with the following slash line: .311/.371/.542 with 55 XBH (21 Hr) and a 100:33 K:BB ratio. Is blocked by J.P. Arencibia at the major league level. Travis d’Arnaud plays much better defense and makes better contact than Arencibia. The power potential is not the same with d’Arnaud, but he could easily hit between 15 and 20 home runs in his rookie year given a full seasons of at-bats (~400). However, that number of at-bats is highly unlikely, more likely to receive 250 at-bats. In that time frame, he could have 5 to 8 home runs with a digestible average.

Extra
51. Josh Vitters – 3B – CHC: Hitting wise, I consider him similar to Delmon Young: swings early and often, relies on pedigree and natural talent, is inconsistent. Defensively he is superior to Young. Aramis Ramirez has shown to be injury prone two of the last three years. Cub fans may finally see their 2007 first round pick. Keep in mind he is turned only 22 on August 27th. See Scouting the Unknown article for further details.

Late Scratch
Kyle Gibson – RHP (SP) – MIN: He would be a top 15 fantasy prospect if he wasn’t having Tommy John Surgery after injuring his elbow. The Minneapolis Star Tribune reported on September 1, 2011, “Gibson will have reconstructive surgery on his elbow after the initial phase of his rehabilitation program did not go well … surgery [was performed 9/7/11] in New York, … surgery done by Mets team physician, Dr. David Altcheck, who also operated on Joe Nathan’s elbow last year.” I don’t think I’ve ever heard a pitcher who’s pitching elbow hurt significantly successfully complete rehab without TJ Surgery. Twins fans hope that the Mets medical staff doesn’t advise on the healing process either. Then again, Joe Mauer had “bi-lateral leg soreness” for a month. Not sure where Dr. James Andrew (a.k.a Dr. Freeze) was in the whole conversation. Gibson was shutdown early August with elbow tenderness. Statistically, it appeared that his injury may have been lingering since early July. Not relevant until 2013. See Scouting the Unknown article for further details.

Honorable Mentions
In no particular order
Nick Weglarz (RF, CLE); Casey Crosby (LHP, DET); Trevor Bauer (RHP, ARI); LJ Hoes (2B, BAL); Jarred Cosart (RHP, HOU); Jedd Gyorko (3B, SD); Carlos Triunfel (SS, SEA); Adeiny Hechavarria (SS, TOR); Anthony Gose (OF, TOR); Yasmani Grandal (C, CIN); Chris Archer (TB) (RHP, TB); Jeff Locke (LHP, PIT); Tony Sanchez (C, PIT); Austin Hyatt(RHP, PHI), Michael Taylor (RF, OAK); Chris Withrow (LHP, LAD); Lars Anderson (1B, BOS); Brandon Guyer (OF, TB); Deck McGuire (RHP, TOR); Simon Castro (RHP, SD); Trevor May (RHP, PHI); Jake McGee (LHP, TB); Jeurys Familia (RHP, NYM); Christian Friedrich (LHP, COL); David Cooper (1B, TOR); Austin Romine (C, NYY); Tom Milone (LHP, WAS); Clint Robinson (1B, KC); David Lough (OF, KC); Tim Wheeler (LF/RF, COL); Alex Liddi (3B, SEA); Adrian Cardenas (2B/MI, OAK); Alex Torres (RHP, TB); Rudy Owens (LHP, PIT); Tanner Scheppers (RHP, TEX); Starling Marte (CF, PIT); Matt Adams (1B, St.L); Jose Iglesias (SS, BOS); Carlos Peguero (LF, SEA); Chris Parmelee (1B, MIN); Caleb Gindl (RF, MIL); Jarred Cosart (RHP, HOU)

A big week in prospect news as Anthony Rizzo, Dee Gordon, Jemile Weeks, Charlie Blackmon and Mike Moustakas received their respective invitations to the majors. Not to mention Brett Lawrie and his broken hand causing the the frequent waiver wire add/drop addicts to learn delayed gratification. Then there’s the psychotic mind-tease of the Rays, Diamondbacks, and Twins. Here are some other names to keep an eye on in the up coming weeks and year.

Desmond Jennings | TB | OF: How bad does Sam Fuld have to play before Jennings receives his call-up? He’s on a legitimate tear! Shows more power, continues to play excellent defense and remains a top prospect. Any day now, Rays. You can’t keep a 20/20 type player in them minors forever.

David Cooper | TOR | 1B: What do you call a first base prospect that has a plus .400 BABIP with only three home runs and gap power? A product of the PCL. He’s a .275, 15 home run hitter. So James Loney. There isn’t a place for him in the majors, but his early season call up is not indicative of his talent. Neither are his numbers this year at Triple-A.

Jose Altuve | HOU | 2B: I’ve been keeping a close eye on this young second base prospect for nearly two years. The epitome of a Sparky Anklebiter at a listed 5′ 7″, 166 lbs. Plays great defense, gap power, 10 to 15 home run potential, excellent baserunner and the prototypical number two hitter. He was recently promoted to Double-A after hitting ..408/.451/.606 (.295 BABIP) at High-A Lancaster, a notorious hitting environment. Currently sustaining similar success in a small sample size. Could be a Luis Castillo type player with slightly more power. ETA, 2012.

Jesus Montero | NYY | C: The power and plate discipline has been in remission while his strikeouts have increased. Then combined with the fact the Yankees have to stroke the ego of Posada, I don’t expect Montero to be up until the rosters expand in September.

Kyle Weiland | BOS | RHP (SP): The Red Sox recently called up Michael Bowden, even though he’s been pitching well this year, his history suggests otherwise. Next prospect could be Weiland who projects as a reliever, but has started at each level. Currently at Triple-A, he’s striking out over nine batters per nine-innings. He has a mid-90s sinking fastball and hard biting curve; changeup is still a work-in-progress. The perfect combo for a reliever.

Paul Goldschmidt | ARI | 1B: Another week, another home run. Okay, two more home runs. Blah, blah, blah. Be nice to see him called up but I wouldn’t hold my breath for one in June.

James Darnell | SD | 3B: Speaking of prospects who perform well but aren’t getting promoted. Darnell has done everything (.363/.459/.656, .379 BABIP) to be promoted to Triple-A. There are rumors of the Padres moving Chase Headley for some prospects. If this occurs, I would expect Darnell to see PT in the majors.

The next three prospects most likely won’t see time in the majors this year, at most, in September.

Austin Hyatt | PHI | RHP (SP): Has continued and improved upon his impressive 2010 season. With 9.9 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9, Hyatt has stymied Double-A hitters. Not a top-flight prospect, I do believe he has the ability to be a number four fantasy starter, or number three or four start in a normal rotation.

Eric Surkamp | SF | LHP (SP): I’ll let the numbers speak for themselves: 10.5 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, .4 Hr/9, 2.60 FIP. He has a heavy sinking fastball, a plus curveball and plus changeup. The Giants are breeding pitchers. Not as dynamic as Matt Moore, but equally as intriguing.

Edwar Cabrera | COL | LHP (SP): Slightly old for his level (22 at Single-A), he signed a contract when he was only nearly 21. He’s posting Matt Moore type numbers (11.9 K/9 [101 K's], 1.9 BB/9 in 78 IP) with a 91 to 92 MPH fastball with a deceptive and plus changeup. Scouts praise his ability to pitch and setup his changeup. He’s still refining his breaking pitch. I believe if he continues to pitch this well by year’s end, he’ll be raising sharply up prospect boards.

Rehabbing a broken hamate bone, Domonic Brown has sustained early power upon his return. With two home runs, a double and three singles in his first three games, he looks like he might be an exception to the rule about players losing power coming back from this injury. Pretty surprising since the hamate bone is at the base of the hand near the wrist with several bones nearly interlocking. Many players have had this injury and recovered, but power is generally sapped for the first year. If you can build the hype and flip him, that would be the safe play.

Other call ups of note Grey has mentioned, would be Vance Worley who had a decent outing with five strikeouts and six baserunners (4 walks). Alex White is another Zach Britton as Grey stated on Friday. This would be more than fair and I believe White will be better than Britton. David Cooper was a first round draft pick several years ago for the Blue Jays but hasn’t done much to inspire excitement, even with his hot start. Keep expectations in check.

Eulogio “Frankie” de la Cruz | RHP | MIL: Was part of the Miguel Cabrera trade from Florida to Detroit a few years back. He pitched in Japan last year and returned to America this year. In the 2009 Baseball Handbook, it stated he has a 94 to 96 MPH fastball with a plus changeup. Currently, he has a 27:7 K:BB ratio in 24 1/3 innings early this year at Triple-A. Rocking a gravity-charged 1.50 GO/AO; for career has always had a 1.00+ GO/AO ratio. Could be a sneaky prospect this year like a Travis Wood.

Clint Robinson | KC | 1B: Scouts project him as a Quad-A type player who has power to all fields with little to no defense. There are only so many options at KC for this type of player. He could be a potential call-up to stave off service time for Hosmer/Moustakas if Kila Ka’aihue continues to struggle. Currently sporting 6 home runs and a 15:10 K:BB ratio in 72 Triple-A at-bats.

Rex Brothers | COL | LHP: 20 strikeouts and four walks in 11 innings as a reliever at Triple-A. More a call-out if the Rox need to replace any arms.

Brandon Allen | ARI | 1B: His .257/.349/.419 slash line with six XBH (3 Hr) in 74 at-bats isn’t winning anyone over in the blahtoon of Juan Miranda and Russell Branyan.

Dustin Ackley | SEA | 2B: Speaking of struggling, Mr. Dustin “2010 AFL MVP” Ackley has been dreadful to the tune of .221/.343/.326 in 86 at-bats. His plate-discipline is keeping him afloat (16:16 K:BB).

Yunesky Maya | WAS | RHP: Besides a poor first outing, he’s pitched well: 18 strikeouts and 4 walks in 18 2/3 innings with 8 earned runs since an April 7th start. Should get a chance to start in the majors when an injury occurs, barring that the Nationals pitchers continue to throw well, which seems unlikely.

Scott Diamond | MIN | LHP: A spot start here or there. An extreme groundball pitcher (2.75 GO/AO this year in 20 2/3 innings). Drafted as a Rule-5 pick this offseason and then traded a lower prospect to keep his rights when placed at Triple-A to start this year.

Jemile Weeks | OAK | 2B: .333/.440/.547 in 75 at-bats with a 17:14 K:BB ratio. Similar skill-set to older brother – 20/20 potential. Too bad they share the injury bug too.

Trayvon Robinson | LAD | CF/OF: If Jerry Sands continues to struggle, the next prospect that could be called upon is Trayvon. He has a high average currently (.347 ave.) but 22 strikeouts in 70 at-bats. That has been his M.O. throughout his career. Has legitimate 20/20 ceiling when making contact.

Josh Bell | BAL | 3B: Speaking of bad strikeouts, Bell has a 23:2 K:BB ratio in 77 at-bats at Triple-A in the early going. Maybe the Orioles asked him to take lessons from Mini Donkey in the offseason.

Mike Minor | ATL | LHP: 29 strikeouts with six walks and five earned runs in 25 2/3 innings since being sent down. His sleeper status was prematurely released. Looks like he’s cleaning up that mess before the man crushes show back up.

Kyle Gibson | MIN | RHP: Continues to pitch better than the entire Twins rotation.

Neil Ramirez | TEX | RHP: He was a late exclusion from my last Minor League Review article. Throws a 92 to 95 MPH fastball an average changeup and the best curveball in the Rangers farm system. The Rangers promoted him from High-A to Triple-A after one start and he has gone 16 innings with 17 strikeouts and six walks. Ceiling is high if he can curb walks.

At least that’s the creed that Francona and Epstein keep repeating to themselves as they sit in the fetal position on opposite corners of the clubhouse shower. Carl Crawford seems like a nice guy.  Something about the name Carl.  So innocuous.  “Hey, sis, what’s your new boyfriend’s name?  Carl?  I’m gonna like him on Facebook.”  That’s you jibber-jabbering with your family.  Because Carl seems like a nice guy could be partially why it’s so sad to see him struggle this much.  Doode better not stand too close to the Pesky pole in a lightning storm cause he will get struck.  That’s been his luck so far.  Franconian measures were taken to get Crawford going by openly mocking him with a lineup switch.  That never helps.  It’s like when you’re a teenager and your Mom makes an appointment for you to see a dermatologist.  Suddenly, you realize you’re not hiding your acne as good as you thought you were.  Crawford is really doing nothing wrong other than getting extremely unlucky.  That luck will turn around and he’ll suddenly look like the 2nd round pick he was in the preseason.  To misquote a cliche, get in now while the gettin’s not good.  Anyway, here’s some more players to buy or sell this week in fantasy baseball:

BUY

Justin Smoak – I just went over my Smoak fantasy.  I wrote it riding on the back of a bicycle through downtown Milwaukee while Shirley steered.

Brett Wallace – Sure, his ESPN Player Card looks like he had some bad work done by Dr. 90210 (you storing acorns in those cheeks, Brett?  Brett looks like he says, “Franks and beans!  Franks and beans!”), but he’s hitting at a near-.600 clip over the last week.

Brandon Wood – He’s one of the top prospects in the game!  Low voice:  From 6 years ago.

David Cooper – With the demotion of Snider (don’t write), Cooper will fill-in as the Jays DH.  For the Triple-A Vegas Fake Boobs, Cooper slashed .395/.438/.617.  His BABIP was silly ridiculous, so the average there isn’t happening but his power is decent.  When you put ‘decent power’ into Google translator, it spits back ‘Above James Loney but below Justin Smoak.  Say Ike Davis.  No, you don’t have to literally say it.’  Geez, Google translator sounds a bit testy.  In AL-Only leagues, he’s a must own — obviously.  I’d take a flyer on him in deeperish mixed leagues, depending on how bad you muffed your corner infidel slot.

Sergio Santos – This is probably still Mergio Salthorntos’ job, but Serge is a nose ahead.

Eduardo Sanchez – Similar shituation to the White Sox.  It’s not clearly Eduardo’s job.  Imagine, if you will, you’re traveling through another dimension — a dimension not only of sight and sound but of mind.  A journey into a wondrous land where Ozzie and La Russa make every decision for you.  You order a burger then a steak then a piece of chicken.  You get your car washed, decide halfway through that you need a shower and hop out of your car.  You go to the movies and leave halfway through the opening credits.  That’s a signpost up ahead:  your next stop:  the Twilight Zone!

Vicente Padilla – I’d go with Kuo first.  Speaking of which…

Hong-Chih Kuo – Hello, I wish to welcome everyone who was sent here from the ellipsis in Padilla’s blurb.  Make yourself comfortable.  Can I offer you some tea?

Darren Oliver – He sounds like a sitcom character.  Not a funny one.  The straight man.  Not that there’s anything wrong with being straight.  Feliz is a lock to be saving games in a week (please, God, let that be true), but I’d own Oliver in the mean’s while.

Wilson Ramos – Grey’s Prediction That Doesn’t Matter At All Of The Day:  Ramos is going to be on and off waivers all year then will be drafted next year around 140 overall as he appears on sleeper lists all across the interwebs.

Mike Aviles – Not a huge fan, but he’s on his way to 15/15 season and his average should come up.

Jeff Baker – Baker has been so hot.  Like an oven.

Darwin Barney – The Purple Evolutionist, as someone coined him in the comments the other day, is hitting over his head, but that doesn’t mean you can’t ride the hot schmotato.

Clint Barmes – He’s still available in my NL-Only league and I’m not exactly rushing to pick him up.  Never the hoo!  If you’re rocking someone two eggs short of an omelet, I’d stash Barmes.

Domonic Brown – Pick him up now, DL him for a few weeks, then trade him a day before he returns.  Or ride the Brown lightning.  Hmm, that sounds kinda weird.

Randy Wolf – Could someone please make a t-shirt with three pictures of Wolf howling at the moon?  That is all.

Scott Baker – Rudy likes Scott Baker.  This was brought to you by the Committee of Grey Endorsing Baker Without Really Endorsing Him.

Alex White – Just went over Alex White this morning.  Scroll on, scroller!

Brandon Beachy – Me telling you to grab Beachy seems so three Buy/Sell’s ago, but he’s still only owned in 23% of ESPN leagues.  The same Beachy that has 31 Ks in 29 1/3 IP, a 31:9 K:BB and a 1.09 WHIP.

SELL

Gordon Beckham – Hitting under .200 with 2 homers and 1 steal.  At this point, I’d prefer to own Gordon Shumway.  I think it’s fair to say we can move on from this schmohawk.

Aubrey Huff – Depends on the league whether you’re dropping him or trading him (as with most of these guys), but I warned you in the preseason of Huff’s Saberhagenish on/off years.  In fact, I’ll quote it for you cause that’s how I roll, “A big flashing red arrow is pointing at his alternate seasons of 15 home runs a piece in 2007 and 2009.  If you get an off season from Huff, you’ve just lost your league.  That’s just me being real wit’ you.  You see the truth is everybody wanna know how close me and Huff is.  Or who I’m still cool wit’.”  And that’s me quoting me and paraphrasing Dr. Dre!  Can we get Detox already?  I need a doctor.

Bobby Abreu – Getting some spring cleaning done here.  I think Abreu’s done cause he looks cooked.

Wade Davis – I’m not telling you to drop him, but I’m wondering in the dark recesses of my medulla oblongata if you can sell Davis for more ducats than he’s worth.  Obviously, I’m talking deep leagues here since he’s not even owned in all leagues.  He is pitching far above his head ratio-wise.  His K-rate is atrocious (4+) and he’s getting lucky with balls hit into play.  In AL-Only leagues, I wouldn’t sell him for a white chocolate dipped fortune cookie, but I’d explore offers.

Toronto Blue Jays 2010 Minor League Review
Overall farm ranking via Baseball America (2010)
2010 (28) | 2009 (19) | 2008 (25) | 2007 (25) | 2006 (25) | 2005 (15) | 2004 (8)

Record of Major and Minor League Team(s)
MLB: [85 – 77] AL East
AAA: [66 – 78] Pacific Coast League – Las Vegas
AA: [79 – 62] Eastern League – New Hampshire
A+: [72 – 67] Florida League – Dunedin
A: [70 – 69] Midwest League – Lansing
A(ss): [35 – 40] New York – Pennsylvania League – Auburn
R: [31-28] Gulf Coast League

The Run Down
My Blue Jays 2009 Minor League Review said, “[The] Blue Jays may be better than expected [in 2010]. However, there is a rather large “IF” on each of those players [to continue to produce in the future].” The player with “if” tags? Adam Lind, Aaron Hill, Travis Snider, and Shawn Marcum. Three-fourth of the players listed struggled or were injured for most of the year. 2010 saw the Jays post a winning record (last one was in 2008). The Blue Jays were a running strikeout joke here at Razzball, but the Diamondbacks would have won that if they would have had any good fantasy hitters this year. Surprise years from Jose Bautista, John Buck, and a bounce back year from Vernon Wells and Shawn Marcum (injury bounce back) helped the Jays in a brutal division. Youngsters, Ricky Romero progressed very well in 2010, Brett Cecil improved upon his rookie year, and Brandon Morrow had a terrific year posting a 10.95 K/9 – if he was qualified, would have been the highest strikeout rate for a starter. Although the Blue Jays had a winning major league record, they did not have the infusion of rookies or prospects this year as they did in 2009. Not entirely a huge issue, nevertheless, an indication of the lack of a deep talent pool. Granted, the trade of Roy Halladay definitely brought back some great talent (Drabek, d’Arnaud, and Brett Wallace in a side swap for Michael Taylor), there wasn’t a major league ready prospect to start the 2010 season. One surprising name upon perusing the Jays minor league system, Adam Loewen, the former pitcher from Baltimore. Loewen is currently a Blue Jays outfielder, putting his time in at Double-A. He hit 17 homers and looks to be in the Rick Ankiel mold, except Loewen’s pitching problem was injury-based and not a command issue.

Graduating Prospects
None

Arizona Fall League Players -Phoenix Desert Dogs
AFL Rosters
Pitchers: Matt Daly (RHP), Alana Farina (RHP), Dan Farquhar (RHP), TBA (P)
Hitters: Adeiny Hechevarria (SS), Mike McDade (1B), Eric Thames (OF)

Players of Interest for 2011
Hitters
Adeiny Hechavarria | SS | D.o.B: 4-15-89 | Stats (A+/AA): .242/.272/.333 | 414 AB | 26 XBH | 4 Hr | .091 ISO | 13/3 SB/CS | 65:17 K:BB
Signed a 4 year, $10 million deal in April. According to some sources, he was the best Cuban shortstop, ahead of prized Boston Red Sox, Jose Iglesias (who had to play second when they were on the same team). Covers a lot of ground, great quickness, and stellar footwork. Has some power but it is his defense that will make him reach the majors sooner rather than later. Baseball America and John Sickels 2010 handbooks did not have Hechavarria listed. During his first year of professional ball in the USA, Hechavarria struggled at High-A but with a .222 BABIP; Double-A was a different story with a .307 BABIP and a slashline of .273/.305/.360 indicating a light hitting middle infielder with on-base issues. Watch him play at Double-A next year and judge accordingly for his MLB ETA.

#4 David Cooper | 1B | D.o.B: 2-12-87 | Stats (AA): .257/.327/.442 | 498 AB | 51 XBH | 20 Hr | .185 ISO | 0/0 SB/CS | 74:52 K:BB | .266 BABIP
Still projected as the Blue Jays first basemen of the future (as he was last year too), Cooper was underwhelming in his second take facing Double-A pitching. Blame Brett Wallace for stealing a potential Triple-A cup-of-joe, granted, Cooper didn’t blow away the opposition. His season was still adequate and should still be considered a potential fit at first for his BABIP was unlucky (.266) showing that his slashline could still improve. The power is sufficient and has improved from his 2009 season and the strikeout to walk ratio remains a strong attribute. A 2009 Honorable Mention has become a strong play for 2011. Just wait to see how he handles spring training and the early season. Could be the 2011 Ike Davis.

#2 J.P. Arencibia | C | D.o.B: 1-5-87 | Stats (AAA): .301/.359/.629 | 412 AB | 67 XBH | 32 Hr | .328 ISO | 0/0 SB/CS | 85:35 K:BB | .306 BABIP
Read his Scouting the Unknown article for more expansive coverage. Also, I rated him as the number eight Fantasy Baseball Prospect back in late July. A quick quote from the 2009 blurb for the lazy reader because the Scouting the Unknown article says the same thing at some point, “The power is legit, the strikeouts are scary and the lack of walks is more of a turn off than Joan Rivers. Playing the Pacific Coast League may have inflated his numbers a wee-bit, however, expect to see him in the majors at some point in early summer 2010. Keep expectations in check, but if you need a catcher, plug him in and see what he can do.”

#25 Brad Emaus | 2B | D.o.B: 3-28-86 | Stats (AA/AAA): .290/.397/.476 | 445 AB | 50 XBH | 15 Hr | .186 ISO | 13/2 SB/CS | 69:81 K:BB | .281 BABIP (AA) .327 BABIP (AAA)
Who knows when another Aaron Hill injury is going to happen, but Emaus may be the beneficiary of said injury. Doesn’t have great tools in any area, but is a savvy player, or if you’re Baseball America, “has high marks for his moxie and approach to the game … a consistent swing and [gap power] … good plate discipline … quality at-bats … was over anxious in 2009 … 10 to 15 homer potential … defense improving.” Sounds like Dustin Pedoria on the high end or Orlando Hudson on the low.

Darin Mastroianni | CF | D.o.B: 8-26-85 | Stats (AA): .301/.390/.398 | 525 AB | 36 XBH | 4 Hr | .097 ISO | 46/10 SB/CS | 96:77 K:BB | .358 BABIP
Looking for steals, waiting for one of the Jays outfielders to be injured or not produce in 2011 (I’m pointing at you Jose), here in your potential Drew Stubbs of 2011. See 2009 blurb, “FROM 2009 (Honorable Mention):.No power to speak of here. Mastroianni is all speed, (70 steals in 85 attempts) and it’s a good thing he keeps the ball on the ground too. If your a firm believer in SAGNOF, then Mastroianni may be someone you steal on the waivers if he gets called up in 2010. But that is a big IF.” That “big IF” is much smaller for the 2011 season, especially if you replace 2010 with 2011. Triple-A is in his future.

#18 Eric Thames | LF | D.o.B: 11-10-86 | Stats (AA): .288/.370/.526 | 496 AB | 58 XBH | 27 Hr | 8/5 SB/CS | 121:50 K:BB | .327 BABIP
His draft stock fell when he tore his quadricep muscle in his right left before the 2008 draft. He has plus bat speed, great plate discipline and a good swing according to Baseball America; he has average speed, an average arm and should play left field because his defense isn’t great. A strong person with a “rock-solid” body helps too. I see an outfielder with the potential to go 30/10 with a solid average (think .275 to .300). Probably won’t get a chance until September to prove himself.

Pitchers
#2 (PHI)Kyle Drabek | RHP | D.o.B: 12-8-87 | Stats (AA): 7.3 K/9 | 3.8 BB/9 | 162 IP | 2.94 ERA | 3.87 FIP | 1.20 WHIP | .7 Hr/9 | 7.0 H/9 | .260 BABIP
I may be rather harsh, but let me be frank to start, Drabek is a great talent with tremendous upside, but he isn’t a flamethrower and won’t draw rave reviews everywhere you look. His 179 innings (including his three major league starts) in 2010 isn’t a red flag when you consider he threw 158 innings in 2009. Pre-season Baseball America ranked Drabek as the 25th overall prospect. Quoting last year’s review, “He possesses a low to mid 90′s fastball (top 95 mph), a sharp and biting curve, and a “work in progress” change-up. Due to the heavy influx of pitchers at the top end of the Jays system (Romero, Rzepczynski, Cecil, Richmond, David Purcey, Shawn Marcum, Dustin McGowan), Drabek wont be rushed. The earliest, June. Most likely, August/September.” I got the ETA right, just wasn’t as excited as the experts. Much the same holds true from this past season, but his curve isn’t just “sharp” and “biting”, it’s “a 70” on the 20-80 scale. Meaning it is tremendous, fantastic, you get the point. I like his potential and he pitched fairly well in his 17 major league innings. Just don’t expect a 10 K/9, something more along the lines of 7.5 K/9 should be more accurate.

#1 Zach Stewart | RHP | D.o.B: 9-28-86 | Stats (AA): 7.0 K/9 | 3.6 BB/9 | 132 1/3 IP | 3.63 ERA | 4.18 FIP | 1.36 WHIP | .9 Hr/9 | 8.6 H/9 | .298 BABIP
From 2009 Minor League Review, “A key component in the Scott Rolen trade, Stewart has a mid 90′s fastball (93-96 mph), a power slider and a “promising” change-up. His fastball has natural sink to it, laminated by his high ground-ball rate (53%).” Rated as the number one prospect in the Jays system before the Halladay trade, Stewart didn’t have a dominating season at Double-A. His numbers were uninspiring. John Sickels said it best in his recap of the Top 50 Pitcher Prospects for 2010 , “I thought he’d do better, but it was still a good season.” I concur. The Reds used him as a reliever with some success, but the Jays want him in the rotation. Should get a shot in the majors at some point in 2011.

#14 Danny Farquhar | RHP | D.o.B: 2-17-87 | Stats (AA): 9.3 K/9 | 4.9 BB/9 | 76 2/3 IP | 3.52 ERA | 4.28 FIP | 1.20 WHIP | .8 Hr/9 | 5.9 H/9 | .239 BABIP
Why reinvent the wheel, from the 2009 Minor League Review, (he was a honorable mention), “Yet another Blue Jays pitcher who works the ground balls (51.6%). I mention Farquhar because … a deadly fastball that sits between 92 and 94 mph, an average curve, and a cutter – and that is just from a three-quarter slot. He also can throw a 89 to 91 mph fastball with tons of action and a “frisbee action” slider from a below-sidearm angle. Used as a starter in college, the Jays like what they see from him as a reliever. Farquhar could become Lord Farquaad of the Jays ‘pen by 2012, and a stellar mid-to-late relief role by 2011.” My humor is lame, but my predictions remain the same, except it’s possible to see him in 2011. His fastball has improved to 93 to 94 mph topping out at 95 to 96 mph. The 89 to 91 mph fastball in the quote is a two-seamer with good sink. All of his pitches have good action. He struggles with control due to the different arm slots.

Honorable Mentions
Hitters
#4 (PHI) Travis d’Arnaud | C | D.o.B: 2-10-89 | Stats (A+): .259/.315/.411 | 263 AB | 27 XBH | 6 Hr | .152 ISO | 3/1 SB/CS | 63:20 K:BB | .312 BABIP
Not quite the season the Blue Jays brass was hoping for. To quote the 2009 blurb about d’Arnaud because not much has changed besides getting one year older, “A fixture in the Halladay trade, d’Arnaud was the second rated catcher in the Phillies minors behind Lou Marson. D’Arnaud has a good arm, above average catching skills, a gap-power swing … In his first full season, he played fairly well. His average is more like .275 with a normal BABIP, however, that doesn’t mean he’ll blast off next year. He’s good, just a few years away. Plus, the Jays have JP Arencibia.”

#6 (PHI)Anthony Gose | CF | D.o.B: 8-10-90 | Stats (A+ -2 teams): .262/.332/.393 | 512 AB | 40 XBH | 7 Hr | .131 ISO | 45/32 SB/CS | 132:45 K:BB | ~.338 BABIP
Gose was traded straight up for Brett Wallace. His scouting report is unchanged from 2009, “ 60 yards in 6.5 seconds. Plus-plus arm in center. 76 steals … Some scouts think his swing could produce 20 homers in a season, but no time soon. Steals, man, that is what Mr. Gose can provide, and awesome defense.” Much is the same, except managers aren’t going to let him steal when he is caught nearly half the time (45 steals in 77 attempts). The strikeouts are going to become an issue if can’t get on base. He did hit 13 triples to go along with his 20 doubles and seven home runs, showing off his some of the potential power and speed. Double-A is going to be a true test of his abilities. At just 20, there is plenty of time for development. Don’t quit on this youngster like everyone is doing with Fernando Martinez (NYM).

#17 Tyler Pastornicky | SS | D.o.B: 12-13-89 | Stats (A+/AA): .257/.343/.373 | 421 AB | 30 XBH | 9 Hr | .116 ISO | 35/9 SB/CS | 71:55 K:BB | .288 BABIP
He was a late scratch in the Blue Jays 2009 Minor League Review, and this year, I had no choice. Plus, his talents flowed naturally after Anthony Gose. SPEED!. He had 57 Steals in 2009 and 35 this year. He plays good defense, is an above average runner, but lacks power. Could be a top-of-the-order middle infielder. Nothing special, but SAGNOF isn’t supposed to be special.

Pitchers
#5 Henderson Alvarez | RHP | D.o.B: 4-18-90 | Stats (A+): 6.2 K/9 | 2.2 BB/9 | 112 1/3 IP | 4.33 ERA | 3.88 FIP | 1.46 WHIP | .8 Hr/9 | 11 H/9 | .347 BABIP
Alvarez is a groundball pitcher who doesn’t overpower anyone with his 86 to 89 MPH fastball on bad days and a 89 to 92 MPH fastball on his good days, his changeup is his best pitch and it has splitter-like action. He also throws a “three-quarter” breaking ball. He has good command of his pitches, but has little room for error. This past year he seemed to be hittable, albeit slightly unlucky. His strikeouts are vomit-inducing. Overall, Alvarez still has a couple years until the majors are truly in his sight.

Joel Carreno | RHP | D.o.B: 3-7-87 | Stats (A+): 11.3 K/9 | 2.0 BB/9 | 137 2/3 IP | 3.73 ERA | 2.36 FIP | 1.29 WHIP | .5 Hr/9 | 9.0 H/9 | .392 BABIP
I couldn’t find a detailed scouting report, but the strikeouts are awesome, the command is great, the FIP is nearly a full run and a half better than his ERA and he was tremendously unlucky (.392 BABIP). Could be a surprise ranked prospect in 2011 scouting handbooks.