Fantasy Baseball Advice

Tommy John Surgery, “Hey, has anyone seen Billy Wagner’s arm?” All Pitcher Arms ignore Tommy John Surgery as they continue to read Men’s Fitness Magazine. Tommy John Surgery, “Well, it’s important he gets this message. His arm’s not going to get better without me.” Other Pitcher Arms whistle. Tommy John Surgery, “I will not be ignored!” Then Tommy John Surgery boiled Billy Wagner’s Arm’s Rabbit and followed his kid to a local carnival. Now it looks like Billy Wagner’s career is in danger. Ayala should continue to get the bulk of the saves, but always keep this in mind, Ayala is just not that good. Even in keeper leagues, drop Wagner. He’s no good to you anymore, Tommy John Surgery came calling. Next year, the Mets will probably look to make Francisco Rodriguez the highest paid closer in baseball. Hey, I wonder if Tommy John Surgery and K-Rod were working together? Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

B.J. Upton - Out until the weekend with a strained quad. A B.J. quad strain is blue balls, no?

Emmanuel Burriss - For those who just lost Upton. Burriss got a steal yesterday. He might get 3+ steals this week. In all of my H2H leagues, I’m currently starting him. He goes from the Diamondbacks to the Padres later in the week. I could steal against the Padres; I’m not fast. (UPDATE: He was injured yesterday and is no longer a replacement option for Upton.)

Jack Wilson - Might be out for the season with a hairline fracture in his right index finger. Before you throw in the towel because you’ve lost Jack Wilson, take comfort in knowing you don’t own him on any team.

Tim Lincecum - 8.1 IP, 1 ER, 9 K and 126 pitches. I hope his innings/pitches this year don’t catch up to him next year. I do, because I think Lincecum could be special. With that said, why can’t these schmohawks limit him to 100 pitches when he’s up six runs? How much evidence do you need that high pitch counts lead to injuries? If you were making a run for the pennant, would you let him throw 180 pitches? Inconceivable!

Gary Sheffield - 2 HRs. Afterward Sheff said, “Sheff tried to hit the white off the baseball.”

Jon Lester - 7.2 IP, 9 Ks, 0 ER. Looks like Lester didn’t ask Make-A-Wish for just a no-hitter, but a whole season of productivity.

Jeremy Guthrie - Not pitching tomorrow because he has the “flu.” That’s short for he has a crapload of innings on his arm. If you’re still waiting around for him in leagues, I wouldn’t anymore.

Kevin Gregg - Will return on Tuesday and Fredi Gonzalez said he’ll continue to use Matt Lindstrom as the closer. Why? Because Gonzalez is in a H2H matchup and he owns Lindstrom, obviously.

Dave Bush - 8 IP, 2 ER. It’s only fitting that Bush comes right before Wood.

Brandon Wood - 2 HRs. I told you to pickup Brandon Wood on Friday, since then he has three HRs.

Yusmeiro Petit - 2 2/3 innings and 5 ER. And we might see Jobacum again after all. (Yes, Jobacum just came after Bush and Wood. And that’s how you make a triple-decker double entendre sandwich.)

Matt Antonelli - 1-for-21 since being called up. Don’t worry, Padres. You still have the future promise of Khalil Greene.

Albert Pujols - Said he’s considering Tommy John surgery in the offseason. Wasn’t Wagner enough for you, you monster?!

Yesterday, Carlos Zambrano was scheduled for an MRI but failed to show. Possible reasons why: A) He showed up five minutes late and his appointment was given away to Steve Bartman. B) The doctor looked like Michael Barrett. Z was escorted out. C) He decided to check out The Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants 2 instead. Z’s priorities are out of order. If you’re in your H2H playoffs , you need to cut bait and see who else is out there. In some leagues, I’m looking at Randy Wolf (I know, you just threw up a little in your mouth), but his confidence should be sky high after his complete game and he faces the Pirates next. Some other names I like that I’ve seen on various waiver wires include Slowey, Garza, Kuroda, Blackburn, anyone facing the Mariners, Nats or Padres. (BTW, if you’re in H2H playoffs, I think you’ll be able to appreciate one man’s H2H playoff breakdown.) Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Jim Johnson - About to have an MRI because his shoulder hurts? No, because Trembley’s an awful manager. Jamie Walker, Fernando Cabrera, Dennis Sarfate and as a dark horse candidate, Radhames Liz. And before the NAACP contacts me, I wasn’t being punny when I wrote dark horse.

Scott McClain - Hit his first HR of his career after 29 HRs in Triple-A. Some day Woody Harrelson will gain 120 lbs. and play him in the movie adaption of his life.

Pablo Sandoval - 2nd HR of the year. Benicio Del Toro will borrow the fat suit Adrian Grenier used in Medellin to play Sandoval.

Dave Bush - 5 IP, 6 ER. You saw Bush just sitting there and you couldn’t keep your hands off. Now you feel used and it burns when you pee. Serves you right.

Lance Cormier/Dennis Sarfate - Outdueled Dice-K but still lost. This is the number one reason why people don’t bet on baseball and why most of the time you’re better off to just go with your top guys. Baseball’s an unpredictable game day-to-day but fairly predictable over 162 games. And I officially sound like some crappy baseball announcer — see Don Sutton.

Dustin Nippert - 7 IP, 0 ER and only seven hits with no walks. Holy heffin’– Oh, it was the Mariners.

Jorge Campillo - 5 IP, 7 Ks. I kinda felt a decent start was coming because the Marlins do enjoy swinging and missing.

Joe Nelson - Got the save yesterday. Guess he’s the number two man behind the recently overworked Matt Lindstrom.

Dustin Pedroia - 17th HR yesterday. David Ortiz, 17 HRs.

Mark Reynolds - 4 Ks as he heads towards 200 Ks. You haven’t heard much about me fingercuffing Reynolds because I dropped him about two months ago in my Razzball league. I just couldn’t stand all of the home runs he was giving me. I still have him in a NL-Only league. In other news, yawn.

Yunel Escobar - Has a sore shoulder, supposedly he’s battled this all year. Yeah, and my excuse is I have a monkey writing these posts.

Troy Percival - Kazaam! More importantly, I wouldn’t pop your Wheelers just yet.

Alex Rodriguez - Hit a meaningless HR yesterday. Wait, Joe Maddon’s throwing his challenge flag! Cut to 2 minutes, 15 seconds later. Yes, it is a meaningless home run!

Dallas McPherson - After hitting 42 home runs in Triple-A, he made his first start yesterday. He walked twice and K’d. McPherson grew up masturbating to Adam Dunn. That’s sincerely a compliment.

Rich Harden - Arm discomfort. He reports it’s “nothing serious.” Yeah, and taco diarrhea doesn’t burn.

Wade LeBlanc - Top Padres pitching prospect made his major league debut and pitched like a Nats prospect, 4 IP, 5 ER. LeBlanc has a HR problem and there’s no way he’ll ever shake the Joey typecasting.

Blake DeWitt - HR yesterday. He’s been starting at 2nd base. If he can get that eligibility, his value goes from one dollar to one Euro.

Chris Dickerson - HR yesterday. Could he get to 10/10 in a month and a half? I wanna have shirts made up that say, “I (heart) Dick…” and on the back, “…erson.” What?

Yesterday, I went over some fantasy baseball hitters to grab. Today, we look at some below the radar pitchers. (Of course, it depends on your league size on whether these schmohawks are above or below the radar. As that cliché goes, your trash is someone else’s wife.) If I were you, this would probably be a very helpful post for me. Why, Grey? Please explain. Okay, general reader of this site, I don’t draft pitching high in any league. My first pitcher off the board in one ‘pert league was Aaron Harang. Nuts, you say? Nuts indeed. And this was a fifteen team league, so you can imagine the slim pickings on waivers. Well, currently I’m at a 13 in ERA, 11 in WHIP and a 14 in saves. Wins have been a pain at 5.5 and I’m at 7 in Ks. (Honestly, I’ve seen that the least read posts on this site have been about the leagues Rudy and I are in, so I won’t bore you much longer, just bear with me.) So you’re thinking Harang first? Hmm… You must’ve had some kick-ass 2nd and 3rd and 4th pitchers off the board. 2nd pitcher was Rich Hill, 3rd Wainwright, 4th Edinson Volquez, then Chuck James and that’s it. Seriously, I should be in last place with that pitching staff. But I’ve ridden hard and put away wet Jorge Campillo, Jeremy Guthrie, Mark Buerhle and an array of spot starters. Then very recently I traded for Big Z to try and close the Ks and Wins a bit. So, as you see, pitching can be had in deep leagues, you just need to know where to look. Anyway, here’s some fantasy baseball pitchers to Buy and Sell:

BUY

Jorge Campillo - Probably gone by this time, but I told you to get Campillo in May. If your trigger finger is like Don Knotts in The Shakiest Gun in the West, this is not my fault. (BTW, In the same post, I told you to stay away from VMart. Zapow!)

Jeremy Guthrie - Again, he’s probably gone by now, but I told you to get him when Rich Hill and Gallardo collapsed on May 4th.

Braden Looper - Bad July, but he’s been consistently good one month then bad for one month for the whole year. ERAs respectively from April — 3.86, 6.37, 2.92, 4.82 and so far 2.57 in August. Does this make any logical sense? Yours is not to reason why, yours is to start Looper and hope he drives in Pujols.

Gil Meche - When you look at his numbers in November, you’ll think about how his season wasn’t that great. Well, this would be true, but he can be good for two months in the middle of a lame season. He’s in the middle of those two months.

Ricky Nolasco - 13 K game the other day probably snatched him off of waivers in every league, but in case it didn’t, here’s Nolasco. Now who are you gonna call? Maroone!

Matt Garza - Has this every other start thing going where he’s good in one start then poor in the next. If he stays true to it, you can make it work for you. Stay true, Garza, stay true… And I’ll start you… There’s a country ditty for ya’ll.

SELL

Paul Maholm - This guy is showing up on a lot of people’s “I’m a ‘pert and I’m telling to get this guy” list. Phooey to them. It’s effin’ Paul Maholm, people! Unless I’m looking at him in an NL-Only league, I’m yawnstipated.

Jamie Moyer - He threw a pitch last week that just made it to the catcher.

Armando Galarraga - On my tombstone it will say, “I told you I was ill. And don’t pickup Armando Galarraga.”

Oliver Perez - Here’s the thing with Ollie Perez, he can absolutely wreck havoc on your ratios. Bah!

Jeff Karstens - Ha! Seriously. Ha! Here’s a rule of thumb for you, for those that like thumb rules: Pirates pitchers should not be picked up until they have shown they can pitch well for an entire year.

Nick Blackburn - His K rate is abysmal for the last month or so. I could list more reasons, but trust me, that’s reason enough to look away.

Aaron Cook - I told you I would warn you when I got out. Consider yourself warned, boyz!

Dave Bush - This is one Bush I will not have a hand in.

I listened to Lisa Loeb’s “Stay” while considering the relevance of the Manny trade, then I thought, “Why on earth am I listening to Lisa Loeb?” Rather than viewing this trade like it’s the end of an era, Red Sox fans seem to be viewing this trade like it’s the end of an error. Sure, Manny was a handful, but he gave you a lot more than 500+ career home runs and career average over .310. He gave you something sorely missing in today’s game — flavor. The irony is the Sox got back a player who makes white bread seem like a bold choice for a sandwich. Am I the only one who sees the Red Sox and thinks, “Ellsbury, JD Drew, Bay, Youuuuuuk, Lowell, Beckett, Varitek… Did Jerry Remy suddenly become the only one besides Big Papi with any character?” It’s bad enough everywhere you turn it’s Subway, McDonald’s, Starbucks, Supercuts, Kinko’s, rinse and repeat. Now all our sports stars must be deviod of personality, too. What were you thinking as the seconds ticked down and it was official that you were the champions? First, I want to thank God. Without him, none of this is possible. Next, I wanna point out what a great job Coach did. He took us from last to first in three years. Next, I gotta point out what a great job all of my teammates did. They made me better. Finally, it’s thanks to these fans! You’re the best in the world! If that’s not bucking fullshit, I’ve never heard it. So when the Sox fans say good riddance to Manny, I say they’re all brainwashed by corporate America (and I lower cased corporate on purpose. As it should be.).

Since this is a fantasy baseball blog, first and foremost, I’ll go over the value changes for the Manny trade. Manny might get a slight hit on his value because he’ll no longer have The Green Mawnster to knock balls off of, but Manny’s a hitting savant and I expect him to make the proper adjustments. Also, this trade could be the kind of motivation Manny hasn’t had in almost four years. This does hurt a few other peripheral pieces in SoCal. Let’s do a basic math problem. If the Dodgers play 6 games a week and they have three outfielders, that means they have 18 possible outfield games. Now those 18 games need to be split between 5 outfielders (Ethier, Jones, Kemp, Pierre and Ramirez). So Manny and Kemp get 5 each, which means 10 outfield games. Now you have 8 outfield games to split up. I say Pierre and Jones get between 3 and 4, which relegates Ethier to 1 to 2 games per week. Drop Ethier. His (minimal) value has been zapped.

For Bay, let’s recollect what we saw last year while he battled through the worst slump of his career. Ground ball to short, ground ball to 2nd, ground ball to short and Bay falls into a mental slump where he’s fooled so bad he swings at some pitches while the ball is still in the pitcher’s hand. Bay will have a better lineup around him, he’ll have the The Green Monster to hit doubles off of and he’ll have the 2nd biggest media town breathing down his neck compared to Pittsburgh, which sports a town that forgot they had the Pirates for parts of ‘07 into ‘08. I hope Bay fails, but I’d say there’s only a 50/50 slot of it legitimately happening.

Now the two schmohawks that emerge from this trade with their value slightly knocked up (Hey, “slightly knocked up” sounds like that girl I went to high school with whose name I can’t remember) are Brandon Moss and Andy LaRoche. First, Laroche gets reunited with a guy who has the same parents. (BTW, Elias Sports Bureau said this is the first time two brothers with a capped letter in the middle of their last name will play together. Actually, Elias Sports Bureau didn’t say that, but it sounds like some nonsense they would say. Some things they have said recently around Elias Sports Bureau’s headquarters, “There’s no M & M’s in the snack machine for the first time since 1999,” “Leandro mowed our lawn on Tuesday for the first time since March,” and “Jimmy, in Accounting, has the worst halitosis of any Elias Sports Bureau employee ever.” But I digress.) So LaRoche only has to beat out Jose Bautista for playing time. Well, color me not worried. LaRoche hasn’t shown many signs in the majors, but he’s a top-level prospect that you should pick up in deep leagues.

Brandon Moss, the new Pirates outfielder, strikes me as the guy in a trade that no one cares about then ends up having lots of value. Or this could be complete hyperbole. Moss flashed some speed and power in the minors and never at the expense of his average. Now he’s not going to be an in-his-prime Bobby Abreu, but he profiles similarly to Andre Ethier. I know, yawn. But unlike Ethier, Moss may get his at-bats and in NL-only play that can help. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Psyche! Before we get into today’s roundup, I just wanted to post Manny being Manny, make sure to watch until the 1:30 mark when Manny reenacts the play. If you don’t get a kick out of it, you’re dead on the inside.

The Rays - I knew they were stingy with their prospects, but I thought they would at least upgrade their bullpen. Nope.

Fausto Carmona - Bounced back from that razztastic start last time out against the Twins to throw 6 and 1/3 innings and to only give up 2 earned. Liked him a lot coming back from the DL and I think he can give you some quality starts moving forward.

Juan Rivera - HR yesterday. I’m pretty sure I’ve already said I’m never talking about him again. So this is your last heads up.

Jim Edmonds - 2 HRs. I almost yawned between writing the 2 and the HRs.

Rich Harden - 7 IP, 1 ER, 9 Ks. He’s given up three runs as a Cub and has K’d 39 in four starts. Well, la-di-da. This was still only his first win for the Cubs. So there.

Dave Bush - 7.1 IP, 6 ER. That whole ‘only starting Bush at home’ thing has worked out remarkably well. Almost as well as the whole ’starting Craig Counsell over Russell Branyan’ thing, but not nearly as well as batting Braun fifth. Not sure why Yost wants to get fired, but he’s obviously managing like he does.

Frank Thomas - Was activated from the DL. If you need home runs, I’d take a flier, but don’t drop anyone too valuable because The Big Hurt is aptly named.

Jim Thome - HR yesterday. As I said yesterday when Griffey was traded, Thome’s going to get his at-bats.

Shane Victorino - I was talking to Rudy about how some people bench Victorino or use him as a throw-in in trades and Rudy said an interesting thing to me, “Is Victorino really that different than Carl Crawford?” Things to make you say, “Hmm…”

Chone Figgins - Went 4-for-5 yesterday and almost .400 in the last seven games. As I told someone yesterday, Figgins can get hot and steal a ton of bases in a month or two. Steals is one category you can make up ground real fast. Saves is another.

Ryan Zimmerman - Left yesterday’s game with a hand injury. This could be a great thing for his owners, you might no longer have to delude yourself into thinking he’s valuable.

Khalil Greene - Reports claim Greene decided to place himself on the Disgraceful List when he punched a storage chest and fractured his hand. However, witnesses say the storage chest was starting Greene at SS all season and by all accounts the storage chest actually threw itself at Greene’s hand. Either way, Greene should be dropped in all leagues, even ten team leagues that only use Padres players. (BTW, in a ten team league that only uses Padres players, I think you have to draft Adrian Gonzalez first. Peavy’s great, but you can get pitching late.)

Todd Jones - Speaking of the Disgraceful List, Todd Jones hits the DL. Reason given by the Tigers for this move, “Well… Dur.”

Justin Morneau can hit 20 home runs in the 2nd half. Will he? Let me take out my voodoo chicken… Seriously, I’m not a fortune teller. What, you think I have some kind of Pagan Gods telling me what to do? (Bee tee dubya, I considered not capping Pagan. Because, honestly, how many Pagans really read this site? Is that our largest demographic? Probably.) So if I had Pagan Gods telling me what to do… Wait a second, isn’t a Pagan God just a tad contradictory? It’s like an Anarchist Organization. (Again, I contemplated not capping Anarchist Organization, but, well… Why chance it? These are the last people you want to bother. I could see it now, Grey Albright was murdered today because he didn’t cap Anarchist. Suspects include Anarchists and Grammar Nazis.) Morneau hit 24 home runs in the 1st half of last year, then got aboard the Goodship FizzlePop and hit only 7 Post-ASB. So I think you should stay away from him–No, I don’t. I like Morneau going into the All-Star Break this year and I’ll tell you why… There’s no good reason! Joking, of course there is. He’s 27, the magic year for hitters. He was great in ‘06. With the Twins back in contention, maybe that’s his thing. I like the idea of anyone that has shown they can hit 24 home runs in a half (and 23 in the 1st half of ‘06). That’s not something you find every day. It’s worth a gamble if you need pop. Anyway, here’s some more fantasy baseball players to Buy and Sell:

BUY

Garrett Atkins - Last year’s 2nd half, 12/58/.349. 2006’s 2nd half 18/62/.354. If you’re having a hard time reading between those numbers, don’t. Just read them.

Juan Rivera - Zubaz4Fans, who has the best forum picture, name and hotline to the Bobby Grich-ville Angels, reports that Juan Rivera will be starting over Gary Matthews Jr for the near future. I think this sticks. Or as Rex Hudler aka The Hud would say, “Juan Rivera drives in runs!” (BTW, what other site do you go to that you get reports from someone who named themselves after Zubaz Pants?)

Adam Jones - .417/12 RBIs in last 12 games. If he becomes a star, he may get himself a nickname like Taipei Slinklo. Stay tuned.

David Ross - No relation to Cody or Bob (God rest Bob’s soul and may he be sleeping on a happy cloud somewhere or tossing and turning if there are Pagans reading this). Has three home runs. David Ross can hit 12 in the 2nd half while batting .220. If you can hang with that, hit your fist against the jukebox and pickup Ross.

Chris Volstad - He sounds like a character in an Anne Rice book and he pitches like Derek Lowe, but that’s not completely terrible. Could have some matchup potential.

Josh Johnson - He pitches like every other fourth starter. Some Ks, low 4 ERA, high WHIP. Matchups potential. Eff why eye, if you have too many pitchers with matchup potential, you have no potential. Chew on that!

Dave Bush - For two years, Bush was an unshaven mess.  Had promise, but needed serious grooming.  Stunk so bad that many men thought about giving up.  But suddenly Bush cleaned up and looks presentable… First sign of a flare-up, get out.

Any Pitcher Facing The Mariners - Someone just beat the Mariners. And someone else. Vicente Padilla just called, he wants to pitch against them this Saturday disguised as Gil Meche. Hey, you’re not Meche! *Padilla slowly backs out of the Royals clubhouse*

Denard Span - Sometimes we should look away from real baseball and concentrate on what a guy could do in fantasy — most closers, for instance. But with the Twins, it’s hard to ignore their ability to put a consistently good ball club on the field, no matter the personnel changes. With this in mind, I think the Twins will put Span at the top of the lineup. Gomez has an OBP under .300. I know some of you who read are new to following baseball, while others are more experienced, so I’ll keep this short. Under a .300 OBP is not only bad for real baseball, it’s bad for fantasy baseball. Either way, Span has no power yet, but he’s slashing his way to being a mainstay in the Twinkies lineup with very quick hands.

SELL

Carlos Gomez - Most of what I have to say is in Span’s. I will add that on April 15th I watched the Twins and I said this, “In your box score it shows a K in the first inning. He struckout trying to bunt with two strikes. You’re thinking, “Well, that shows how committed he was to moving the guy over.” Dude, he was leading off the game! I really don’t think you want CarGo on your team right now. He doesn’t know what’s coming or going with pitch selection.” Someone in the comments on that April 15th post doubted me. As I said in the comments then, Gomez has unquestionable speed, you cannot steal first base.

Vernon Wells - Punt.

Mike Mussina - What’s a seven letter word for an over-the-hill Yankees pitcher that will disappoint fantasy owners in the 2nd half? I don’t know how many people are reading this that are carrying Mussina on a team, but here’s a harsh reality. Last year, 5.72 ERA in the 2nd half. This year, he’s a year older and a year crappier. 1st half wins or not.

Billy Wagner - He collapsed (almost literally) at the end of last year. He’s not who he thinks he is, if that makes sense. I couldn’t be anymore down on a closer that currently is in good favor with the majority of the fantasy baseball community. (BTW, our community consists of me writing emails to other sites, “Could you stop spamming me? I don’t want to add your widget to my site.”)

Justin Duchscherer - I kinda want him to be bad just so I don’t have to keep writing his last name. But, truthfully, there’s a long history of converted relievers doing well in the 1st half of their inaugural season of starting than fizzling in the 2nd half. Actually, I made that up. But it sounds right, right? I betcha one of those fancy, sabermetric fantasy baseball sites would have an answer for you. But then again, they will bore you to tears. Seriously, I wanna go in and punch up the writing on some of their posts. Well, the cross-platform splits of the XBHs shows a trend towards the fourth-quadrant Least Common Denominator. Hardy-har, there’s no way Ryan Howard hits 16 home runs in July! That reminds of something Ted Striker said that made the nun want to kill herself.