The ESPYS are coming soon, so I decided it might be time to nominate some relief pitchers for mid-season hardware and steal a little bit of ESPN’s ESPYS thunder (that’s just wrong on more than one level) in the process. Anyway, I’ll soon be handing an award to one of the relief pitchers with a chance to regress in a bad way and I’m calling these awards the Jurrjy’s because Jair Jurrjens was a pitcher that was as up and down as I can recall a pitcher being. He was (is, I could say, after all he still exists, somewhere) a BABIP dependent* pitcher because of a low strikeout rate. For instance, here are his 2011 1st half/2nd half ERA splits: 1.87 in 110.2 1st half innings vs 5.88 in a small sample of 41.1 second half innings. While it might have been better to pick a reliever to name this after, I can’t think of anyone that fits the description better than Jair Jurrjens. The only problem is, I’m not sure if the “winner” is the one whose ERA regresses the most or the one who maintains the mirage. I guess that’s up to the Academy to decide. So without further ado, your 2015 Jurrjy nominees in the “rising ERA” category are: Steve Delabar, middle reliever, Toronto Blue Jays (1.42 ERA /4.05 FIP). Bryan Shaw, middle reliever, Cleveland Indians (2.10 ERA /4.62 FIP). Joakim Soria, closer, Detroit Tigers (2.73 ERA /5.09 FIP). Brad Ziegler, closer, Arizona Diamondbacks (1.45 ERA /3.78 FIP), Darren O’Day, middle reliever, Baltimore Orioles (1.21 ERA /3.17 FIP), and JJ Hoover, middle reliever, Cincinnati Reds (1.31 ERA / 3.10 FIP). (*This article basically claims that pitcher BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play) is 75% luck, 13% defense, and 12% pitcher’s skill).Please, blog, may I have some more?
Rajai Davis is, once again, a SAGNOF-ian legend. Again, again, again, was exactly what he did on Saturday when the 34-year-old outfielder stole 3 bases. This year he might just be the best fantasy player of all those playing only part time (the other player fighting for this honor, in my opinion, is Alex Guerrero). He has 6 stolen bases despite starting in only 9 of 18 games through Saturday for the Tigers. Digging up some career stats I see that he’s never needed much playing time to rack up the SBs. Since he broke out with 41 stolen bases in 2009 he’s averaged 42 steals per season while at the same time averaging only 124.5 games played. And many of those games weren’t starts.Please, blog, may I have some more?
I’m a value oriented fantasy manager. I’m not a believer in positional scarcity and I take that approach (aka meritocracy) to my draft by relying largely on projections. When evaluating my slumping players I look at their projections and peripherals to see if the slump means anything. When looking at the hot players in the player pool I take the same approach. I am going to make recommendations to you based on these approaches. For the next in line closers it means recommending players with good projections but also considering each players chance to close in the future. For base stealers it means making sure the player won’t destroy your AVG or at least letting you know if he’s going to.
This week in SAGNOF (Saves Ain’t Got No Face) Recap: Early last week Adam Ottavino ascended into the closer role for Colorado and it looks at the very least to be semi-permanent. He was previously my 7th best next in line closer to own. Formerly my 2nd best next in line closer to own, Joakim Soria had ascended due to an injury to Joe Nathan, who should be back soon and will regain his closer role. Jordan Walden notched a save last night but it appears Trevor Rosenthal was being given the night off. Now onto this week’s recommendations…Please, blog, may I have some more?
Why does it seem like there’s always more closer situations in flux in the first week than at any other time? Well, whether that’s true or not, this year was no different. Don’t even try to think about what that actually means. Here’s your sumary: By Thursday there were already three new closers, then Sunday we had two old guys getting worked like speed bags at your local gym.Please, blog, may I have some more?
Some people consider it a made up stat, I say hogwash or peeee-shaw. For the people who play in the leagues where the stat matters, it matters. That’s about as devout as I can get since I had to sell my soapbox to pay for my addiction of collectible thimbles. Now, I get it, the Hold stat isn’t for everyone. The basis of actually being a stat is wonky at best. These guys do more than just come in for one inning or one batter, they hold your periph numbers in check. If you don’t believe, that’s fine, I don’t believe myself half the time. Heck, I have no reading comprehension, so it’s more of a “in one ear out the other” type thing. See, I already forgot what I was discussing here. So this year, some of the top options that are going to be the go-to-holds guys are actually jumping up and taking the starring role for their teams due to injury. So I will delve into a few situations to monitor from a Holds perspective, as well as a nice handy chart with some predictions on the side of caution for the top-20 middle relievers, in terms of them garnering the coveted stat of the Hold.
Want to take me on in a Razzball Commenter League? Join my league here!Please, blog, may I have some more?
I wish filling out your fantasy roster with middle relievers was as easy as plop-plop, fizz-fizz. But I’m sure it isn’t, because not everyone is using the same model of success. I can dig that, I mean, I come from a long line of Smokeys that like the art of shoveling. Listen, I get it if you don’t wanna help your team-rates and ratios by adding guys that are stout in production for basically free at the end of your draft. Streaming relievers is a real thing, I didn’t make it up. It does exist, and it lives in the house between Nessy and Sasquatch. It’s not for the faint of heart and is probably not for everyone. It is about optimizing your free innings (very useful in RCL leagues that have games started limits, which everyone wants to win). It’s a basic theory and the patent is pending, so stick around as I get into the art of streaming relievers. And as an added bonus, I have broken down the MR corps into four separate groups. These groups are broken down by usefulness. We have one for straight cuffs, one for rates and holds, a straight holds, and then some stone cold sleepers for you deep-leaguers.Please, blog, may I have some more?
So the title is a bit of a superlative. What was I gonna say, “The Mostly Kinda Good Fantasy Baseball Team?” You’ll get over your scoffing, I have faith in you. This is the best 2015 fantasy baseball team that I can put together when drafting from my top 100 for 2015 fantasy baseball and top 400 for 2015 fantasy baseball. Honestly, I could draft another 25 teams from those lists, and they’d all be different, but equally terrific… Well, one of the twenty-five would only be almost terrific, but it would be really hard to tell which one that is. If I took Adam Jones in the 1st round, everything after would change. If I took Anthony Rendon in the 1st round, everything after would change. For this exercise, I’m taking Mike Trout first, because, well, I have him first overall. Until pick 100, I’m taking one guy somewhere in every fifteen picks. It would be nice if I was in a league where someone drafted F-Her and Kershaw in the first round and I was able to take Anthony Rizzo in the 2nd round (which is likely), but since Trout and him are in my first 10 picks, according to the rules I’ve set up for myself, I can’t take them both. Then, as we all know, once you get into the 100’s, there’s wide gaps between ADP and where players are actually taken. People tend to look at team need over value. So for this exercise, once I get to pick #101, I’m going to pick two players every twenty picks. Finally, because there is so much latitude in the last 200, I gave myself free reign to fill up my team. Throughout the draft, I also gave myself the ability to reach to a lower draft pick, but not reach forward. Or reach around, if you’re feeling frisky. It should still be my ideal team… Or not. Let’s see, shall we? Bee tee dubya, this team is 5×5, one catcher, 5 OFs, MI, CI, 1 UT, 9 P, 3 bench, just like the Razzball Commenter Leagues (Go sign up or start a league). Anyway, here’s the best 2015 fantasy baseball team:Please, blog, may I have some more?
The end of the year is always fun for me when it comes to the race for holds, and the guys getting them. The names that appear on the leaderboard for the last 14 days of games looks like a Dateline special of guys who were abandoned by their actual parents, and just appeared in the majors. For instance, of the top-20 Hold garnerers [Jay’s Note: garnerees? garnerererers? gonorrhea? Eh, let’s just go with garnerers…] over those same last two weeks, only three are in the top-20 for the year (Clippard, Cecil and Watson). On a side note, these are guys for you in dynasty leagues and deeper keeper leagues to pay attention to…. wink-wink. That right there echoes the fact of something, oh I don’t know, two weeks ago, where you should just stream the hell out of RP down the stretch to maximize everything. And by everything, I mean appearance, grooming techniques, hell, it’ll probably allow you to take better pictures to update your Tinder account. Maximize is the name, and maximizing was the game. You see that boat in the distance?… That’s me sailing off into the sunset telling you au revoir, and that I told ya so. I don’t make this stuff up, there are years and years of stats and performance charts that are readily available on the Google machine to prove my point. So with that tangent concluded, here is the last bullpen/hold chart of the year, basically showing you who wins. Sort of. If winning holds is an actual award, that is.Please, blog, may I have some more?
Ah, the stretch run and the second to last Holds post of the year. If your not streaming RP at this point to your advantage, I don’t know what else to tell you but to give me your password, and just get ready for Sunday fundays. It’s not Sunday is it? Because I can’t talk about it with it around, because it slowly consumes me, then beats me, steals all my money, and makes me feel like that time at the water park. Sorry, sidetracked on terrible memories. So Drew Storen has popped up and taken the reigns until Soriano figures out why seven ate nine. I have heard that people are questioning why Tyler Clippard isn’t in there trying to win one for the skipper. It’s easy, but has multiple levels to it. First, you don’t take your best reliever out of the key spot, and that’s setting up and clinching the game for you. Rhis is documented by Clippard dominating in appearances with the lead over the last 30 days. The second is– Storen, who will be awfully expensive next year, while pitching effective, is basically being showcased and used to keep Rafael Soriano from getting his guaranteed 15 million doll hairs next year. You heard me: 15 million. Which becomes guaranteed at 120 games finished, he currentlly sits at 104. The moon landing, JFK, and keeping Rafi Soriano from getting duckets. Conspiracy theories or truth, all I can do is type it… hold on, Oliver Stone is on the phone. Stick around for some snippets of relief pitching lore and a flashy chart made from unicorn tears…Please, blog, may I have some more?
The problem you’re having with your innings limit is everyone’s problem with just five weeks to go. The combative strategy against this is to use a familiar SP option for streaming, but this time, use it for RP. The concept is sound, and is an effective method for leagues without limits, kinda like doctors without borders, but with mitts and jerseys. So here’s how it goes: find the guys you’re streaming on your roster for SP, but instead, find an effective middle reliever or two or three. Get greedy, as they help in groups, kinda like the non-anime version of Voltron. These RP stream guys don’t have to be elite names, as most of them are going to be owned already, but if they aren’t, lets start there. You wanna focus on guys that have a K-rate above 10, which cuts the available guys you want in half. Next, pay attention to their opponent and their teams record… both important. Guys on contenders get used more frequently in better situations. Lastly, and this is important, as soon as they pitch, dump them and pick up a guy who hasn’t pitched that day or the day before to maximize your usable stats. I don’t care how well they did in the game you streamed them in. He pitched? Now he’s is gone. Forget about em. Pretty simple. No? I’ll draw it in crayon, but put on this helmet so we don’t have any liability issues. (If you pick the right guys that is.) Stick around for some pretty charts and tidbits of fantasy goodness…Please, blog, may I have some more?