Fantasy Baseball Advice

As I alluded to in my 3rd baseman posting, first base scares me greatly this year in a deep league format.  Outside the big six – Miguel Cabrera, Albert Pujols, Joey Votto, Adrian Gonzalez, Prince Fielder, & Mark Teixiera – I see very little reliability from a position that could leave you hurting if you aren’t an owner of one of those guys.  Don’t agree with me?  Well go look at the 1st baseman that come after those 6 on Mock Draft Central to round out your top ten: Konerko, Hosmer, Morse, & Berkman.  Your 11th is Freddie Freeman; the quintessential average first baseman.  I know people want to consider Konerko safe, but he’s 36.  I prefer not to be the first person in line to find out when the wheels come off guys like him.  Then there’s Hosmer – a 22 year old who can’t take a walk.  I like his career long term, but even fangraphs is projecting him around 23/13.  Steals are nice, but I want 30 HRs from my 1st baseman and I want them now!  Round things out with Morse – a person with very little track record though I do kinda trust him – and Berkman.  Hey, if I don’t trust Konerko at 36, why would I trust a guy who had his worst major league season in 2010 and hit 24 of his 31 HRs in the first half of his rebound 2011 campaign who is also 36 and won’t have Pujols in his lineup anymore?  And was that a long sentence or was it just me?  Point being, I do not want to leave the first round without a 1B this year.  Taking Teixiera would most likely ruin my perfect draft, but I would grab him nonetheless.  However, if I could get one of those first 5 this year, I’d feel comfortable taking a risk on Paul Goldschmidt around the 12th.  There are a lot of upside plays later in the draft that I have no problem taking a gamble on, but I want at least one of my first basemen to be an offensive rock for me.

I’ll Avoid

Freddie Freeman - Well duh, ONC, you’ve already said you don’t trust him.  Actually, I didn’t say I have no faith in him, I said he was boring.  Like Gaby Sanchez boring.  But Sanchez’ ADP is 196 while Freeman’s is 120; I called and left a message with mockdraftcentral about this one and they haven’t gotten back with me yet.  Wanted to know if it’s a girls name discount or something.  I also asked them about why guys disappear from the rankings when you filter by position like why I can’t see Berkman and have to rewrite my post because of it.  Don’t they know I have a day job and need to leave for work right now?  Neverthewho!  Some people believe the end of the season was the start of a breakout.  Some people also believe that aliens built Egyptian pyramids.  You can believe whatever you wanna believe.  Just keep it off my History Channel.  I came here for facts!

Ryan Howard – Didn’t have a great season last year then fell down, went boom as the final play of the Phillies playoff run.  He hasn’t played for long but he was a late prospect; dude is 32 coming off a really bad injury.  I think there are better gambles you can make at 176 ADP.

I’ll Go For:

Adam LaRoche - Nestled in the bosom of the the 26th round is a name that many are familiar with from fantasy baseball years past.  LaRoche – which is french for ‘The Roach’, though I don’t know if that’s the bug or the thing you pass around the lava lamp while making philosophical ruminations about Scooby Doo – isn’t sexy, for sure.  He’s a been there, done that kind of guy who gives you 25 HRs and 80 to 90 RBI with a .270 average when healthy.  Considering the health risks of Kendrys Morales (18th round) and Justin Morneau (14th), you’re taking much less risk with his shoulder holding up than you are with the other two.

Chris Davis - Oh yes, I went there.  The hatred of Davis runs deep.  Going back to 2010, he was supposed to be a 30 HR hitter in the middle of a dangerous Texas lineup.  But its hard to stick in a lineup when you strike out 35% of the time.  Though he jacked 21 HRs in 2010, he had a .238 average and showed a lack of patience at the plate with a 5.7% walk rate.  Truthfully, none of these potholes in his game have necessarily changed.  What HAS changed is he’s on a team that doesn’t mind a guy that strikes out 200 times in a season.  If they’re willing to ride Mark Reynolds at 3B while he hits .221, why would they show Davis the door?  Look for 25 HRs, a crap-ton of K’s and don’t expect an average above .250; you shouldn’t be disappointed with finding that with a 297 ADP.

Situation to Monitor: Oakland

They’ve got 4 guys competing for the starter’s role in Oakland this year.  One guy has a great OBP but no power: Daric Barton.  Two of them have great power, ok OBP but a craptacular K rate: Chris Carter & Brandon Allen.  And then there’s Kila Ka’aihue. I just can’t quit this man.  Kila seems to fit everything that Moneyball is supposed to be about: I get on base via walks or I hit a HR.  Kansas City only brought him up last year because they needed someone to cover first while they groomed Hosmer’s game and his scroatee (that’s my term for goatees grown by young men who can’t really grow them.  They’re scruffy lookin.  Scruffy + Goatee = Scroatee.  Get it?  Yeah, whatever to you too!  PS, don’t go look up the Urban Dictionary on that one.  Or do if you need reverse psychology).  Back to the point: That type of confidence in a player doesn’t breed…well, confidence in a player.  This one should play out fairly quickly in spring training but my bitcoins are on the Kila monster winning the job.

On Base Percentage (OBP) is what Skynet created for the Oakland A’s so they could win the World Series and ruin baseball.

Actually, that doesn’t sound quite right. I think OBP is the brew baseball writers’ fermented in a basement to scare Andre Dawson, or it was the reason pitchers feared Jim Rice, thereby making him a Hall of Famer.

I’m all confused. But, apparently, Razzball readers and commentators aren’t. According to the recent survey we conducted (to mine all of your personal information to sell to Facebook), a ton of you play in leagues that swap out average for those crazy on base skills. Accordingly, this changes the value of several players:

Jose Bautista: Over the last three seasons (including Bautista’s generally poor 2009), Bautista has the eighth best OBP. Last season, Bautista was just .001 behind the OBP leader, Miguel Cabrera, and over the last two seasons, Bautista has the third best OBP in all of baseball. The only glaring weakness in Jose Bautista’s armor is average. If you substitute OBP, Bautista is a legitimate best-player-in-the-format candidate.

Lance Berkman: Berkman’s .412 OBP last year was the fifth best in all of baseball and not far off his career mark (.409). While Berkman’s average is typically useful, his OBP is top 10, making him a four-category stud. With OBP instead of average, Berkman should pass the likes of Paul Konerko, Mark Teixeira, and Eric Hosmer and is a top six first baseman.

Adam Dunn: Until 2011, Dunn was the answer to the question of who benefits most from the switch to OBP. Last season, he posted an OBP under .300. Oddly enough his walk rate was close to his career norm, but his already high K-rate spiked, his ISO and BABIP cratered and he hit .159. Dunn can walk and appears to be approaching 2012 with more determination. A return to .350 OBP is certainly plausible and has some upside. Last season, Mike Stanton with a .356 OBP had the 40th best mark.

Prince Fielder: Fielder and Pujols have the same OBP over the last three seasons. During that time, Pujols has just 10 more HRs and eight more RBIs. In addition, during that same span, Cabrera has an OBP .012 points higher, 14 less HRs and 10 less RBIs. Fielder isn’t the top 1B in OBP leagues, but he isn’t far off. His move to the American League could depress his numbers somewhat, but in OBP leagues, he is a top producer.

Carlos Pena: While Carlos Pena’s OBP skills do not produce league leading rates, they do erase the stank displeasure of his putrid batting average. Pena has a .239 career average, but .352 OBP. A first baseman capable of hitting 25-30 HRs with a .355 OBP is top-10 consideration.

Mark Reynolds: Like Pena, Reynolds makes an untenable batting average disappear with a superior walk rate. For his career, his OBP is about 100 points higher than his batting average. While his .323 OBP last season was tied for 99th best, it’s a far cry from where his average would rank him. Reynolds is an incredibly attractive option in OBP leagues, as his immense power is not entirely derailed by a sub-optimal OBP. Grab Reynolds with confidence that you will get a .330 OBP, with 35 HRs and near 100 runs and RBIs.

Carlos Ruiz: Over the last three seasons, Ruiz trails only Joe Mauer in OBP. His .376 mark is far ahead of the third place healthy backstop Brian McCann. An afterthought in most leagues, Ruiz can provide solid catcher production in OBP leagues at virtually no cost. Pencil Ruiz in for a .365 OBP, eight HRs and 50+ runs and RBIs.

Nick Swisher: Nick Swisher in an on base cyborg. When you throw out Ryan Braun, Jose Bautista and Lance Berkman, Swisher has the fourth best OBP over the last three seasons (behind Matt Holliday, Shin-soo Choo and Carlos Beltran). With Swisher’s .365 OBP and the Yankee line-up, runs and RBIs will be there. He’ll also add good pop and, best of all, you don’t have to worry about his .255 average.

Ben Zobrist: Zobrist, who walks at a great clip, has the ability to post the second best OBP at the position (behind Dustin Pedroia). A basic 20-20 guy with 100 runs and RBI potential, Zobrist takes a massive step forward in OBP leagues when they do away with his .260 average.

OBP Sleeper Values

Daric Barton: Over the last three seasons (1,158 plate appearances), Barton has a .373 OBP. He crashed and burned last season, but still posted an above average walk rate. If healthy, Barton should post a .365 OBP with 10 or so HRs, 80 runs and 70 RBIs. He could be a sneaky value in OBP leagues.

Jack Cust: Like Barton, Cust was horrible last year. However he had a .366 OBP from 2009-2011 and is moving from two difficult parks (Oakland and Seattle) to the hitter friendlier Houston and NL Central. In the easier league, Cust’s walk rate should play tremendously, possibly to the tune of a .370 OBP. He could also add 20-25 HRs and solid RBIs. As a flier, Cust’s upside makes the gamble reasonable.

Dexter Fowler: If only Fowler knew how to steal bases! His .365 OBP and 12.1% walk rate last season was a good step forward and echoed his minor league successes. He’ll likely only produce two categories: runs and OBP, but has a decent shot at 20 steals and upside to more if he ever figures out how to use his speed.

Jason Heyward: While Heyward hasn’t quite become a star, he knows how to get on base (13.2% walk rate, .362 OBP). In addition, his legitimate and realistic upside to 20+ HRs and 15 SBs make him worth reaching for in drafts. As he gets on base, he’ll score runs and has a solid shot at triple digits. At the worst, you have a solid run and OBP contributor with a little pop and speed.

Nate McLouth: Aside from a rough 2010, McLouth has shown above average on base skills. In fact, he posted double digit walk rates in every season since 2007, excepting 2008. As a late flier, McLouth makes a ton of sense. He should post a .345 OBP, get close to double digit HRs and steals and provide somewhat solid counting stats.

Geovany Soto: Soto’s treacherous average makes betting on his power unreasonable in average leagues. However, his 11.8% walk rate and .348 OBP solidify his power. As a catcher capable of 17-20 HRs with a .340 OBP, he is a clear top 10 option.

Those that get hurt in OBP leagues

Adrian Beltre: Beltre has been a good hitter throughout his career, especially since his escape from Seattle (.309 average last two seasons). However, he averages just 41 walks a season and has only posted two OBPs above .331 since 2001. His 2011 OBP was lower than that of Edwin Encarnacion, Ryan Roberts, Evan Longoria, Aramis Ramirez, Kevin Youkilis and Michael Young, whereas he had the third highest average among qualifiers at the position last year. He simply doesn’t walk enough and projecting and OBP over .335 is silly. While he remains a top seven option or so, hot corner specialists like Ryan Zimmerman, Youkilis and others can have more of an impact in OBP leagues.

Starlin Castro: There are a ton of shortstops with small gulfs between their averages and OBPs. Castro, who hit .307, is one of those. His average last season was only behind Troy Tulowitzki, however his OBP trailed eight shortstops. Given his age, there is optimism for growth, however Castro loses some luster in OBP leagues.

Robinson Cano: Cano has been a batting average superstar for much of his career. However, aside from 2010, he’s never been an on base machine. Last season, his OBP was seventh at the position and over the last three seasons is fifth. Meanwhile, Dustin Pedroia is an OBP dynamo. Certainly swapping average for OBP closes the gap between Cano and Pedroia. In this format, I wouldn’t mind passing on Cano and securing Pedroia.

Ian Desmond: Desmond just isn’t very good, so we shouldn’t be surprised he gets dinged in OBP leagues. His career .304 OBP was actually better than his effort last season, even though he improved his walk rate. There’s some optimism that Desmond can get his OBP to the .310-.320 range as he did improve his walks and cut down on swinging strikes and swinging at balls, however, over the last three seasons, roughly 30 shortstops have averaged OBPs over .315.

Alcides Escobar: In OBP formats, Escobar becomes a true one-category producer. His career .294 OBP is putrid and he has shown no signs of improvement (his walk rate declined in 2011, he chased more balls out of the zone and swung and missed more). He might be good for 25 steals, but that’s all he’s good for in fantasy.

Jeff Francoeur: Over the last three seasons, Francoeur’s .314 OBP is 75^th among OFs, nestled between Aaron Rowand and Luke Scott. While his OBP improved last season, it was in large part thanks to a .323 BABIP and .285 AVG – he didn’t walk anymore and actually struck out more than normal. It is prudent to temper expectations for Francoeur in OBP leagues, especially because if that OBP suffers he’ll have no chance of reaching 20 steals again.

Ichiro: Just like Dunn has been the perennial gainer in OBP leagues, Ichiro has been the perennial loser. His .351 OBP over the last three seasons is 30^th among OFs, while his .312 average is third. While many expect a bounce back, Ichiro is unlikely to post an OBP above .345, which, last season, would have tied him for 28th at the position. OBP leagues take away one of Ichiro’s calling cards: his superior average and relegate him to #3/#4 OF status.

Adam Jones: Jones really likes to swing the bat; his swing percentages have gone up pretty much across the board every season. In fact, his O-Swing% (the percentage of pitches a batter swings at outside the strike zone) is at Vlad Guerrero levels. While he has been able to post solid averages, his swinging has translated to miniscule walk rates. He’s a fine option for average leagues, but his OBP over the last three seasons is 70th among OFs. In addition, his OBP has been trending downward: .335 in 2009, .325 in 2010 and .319 in 2011.

In the last installment of the grading process, we have to look at the bad – those guys I, Albert Lang, was totally wrong about. As always, in the comments, feel free to beat your chest about who you were high on relative to the rest of fantasy baseball players! Thanks for reading!

Joe Nathan – After doing some research and talking to some folks, I was pretty sure Nathan was healthy and undervalued. Well, that wasn’t the case. He stumbled out of the gates and has been bogged down by the suckitude of the rest of the Twins. His year would look better if the Twins were capable of doing anything, but 13 saves isn’t going to cut it. It’s the 31^st most at the position and less than Kevin Gregg, Javy Guerra, Frank Francisco and Matt Capps.

Madison Bumgarner– I don’t think I was more off on a player than Bumgarner. I had him as the 76^th best starting pitcher, while consensus had him around 37. I saw Bumgarner as an uninteresting 3.50 ERA pitcher with a WHIP around 1.25 and 130 Ks. I wasn’t totally off on the ERA (3.32) or WHIP (1.24), but man I didn’t think he’d pitch this many innings with this kind of K-rate. Bumgarner sits as the 30^th best SP in fantasy this season. Whoops!

Jair Jurrjens – Like Bumgarner, I was pretty far off on Jurrjens. I had Jurrjens as 99 among starting pitchers, consensus had him around 50. I had him pegged for a 3.90 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and 130 Ks. I was incredibly concerned about his durability. While I nailed his inability to rack up Ks for you (the Braves have shut him down and he has just 90 Ks), his ERA (2.96) and WHIP (1.22) more than make up for those shortcomings. In fact, Jurrjens is the 36^th best pitcher in fantasy this year.

Pablo Sandoval – I didn’t differ with consensus much on Sandoval, but enough to make it really matter. The “royal we” had Sandoval as the 12^th best 3b, I had him as 15. I said he was a .300 hitter (I was right there) but with moderate pop. His 23 HRs (while missing time with an injury) are the opposite of moderate. Sandoval is the 10^th best 3b this season.

Tim Hudson – I was way off on Tim Hudson. While he wasn’t loved in the community (39^th SP), I really hated on him (65^th SP). I pegged Hudson to finish with a 3.40 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and 140 Ks. Well, Hudson is the 18^th best SP in 2011 with a 3.19 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 150 Ks. He’s beaten my projections pretty well. He keeps going out there and converting balls in play to outs. Congrats!

Daisuke Matsuzaka – Man, that was a bad call.

Brian Roberts – I don’t know which sleeper call was more laughable, Brian Roberts or Dice-K. Probably Dice-K, because when I wrote the Roberts section he was, supposedly, technically, healthy. God, why wouldn’t the Orioles trade him two years ago?

Logan Morrison – I thought Morrison would be an 80 run threat with a decent average and some moderate pop. Well, the pop has been anything other than moderate (23 HRs in 462 ABs), however he has scored just 54 runs and batted a disappointing .247. He’s gotten on base and the power is a great sign going forward, but he didn’t do what I expected this year.

Bobby Abreu – I had Abreu as a .265-.270 hitter with a .360 OBP, 90 runs, 18-20 HRs and 23-25 SBs. He hit .253 with just 54 runs, eight HRs, but has 21 SBs and a .353 OBP. I’d like to call this one a push, but it isn’t. I was wrong; Abreu is in full on decline now. What a great career, but the lights have clearly gone out.

James McDonald – It should come as no surprise that I love James McDonald. I had him down for an ERA in the 3.00s, a WHIP around 1.30 and 180 Ks. Well, he has 142 Ks, a 4.21 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP. He has shown improvements, but that’s still a swing and a miss. That said, I did like him more than Carlos Carrasco, JA Happ, Mike Pelfrey, Randy Wells, Carl Pavano and Tim Stauffer. With the exception of Stauffer, I was dead on, making this just short of a clear push.

Brett Cecil – It just never came together for Brett Cecil the way I thought it could. I had him as the 62^nd best SP before the year, whereas he went largely unranked/undrafted by the masses. I saw an ERA somewhere between 3.85-4.15, 140 Ks and a WHIP in the 1.30-1.35 range. Well, the ERA (4.73) and WHIP (he’s at 1.33) are far from great. However, he never got the innings I thought he would and is sitting at just 87 Ks. I believe in him long-term, but he didn’t provide much value to teams in 2011.

Ike Davis – I personally blame the medical staff who work for the New York Metropolitans – but, then again, I know they haven’t been too successful lately. Moving forward, Mets players should have a Red Letter attached to their name.

Mike Aviles – I missed badly on Aviles. I ranked him as the 12^th best 2b and 9^th best SS. I believed he was capable of putting up a .290 average, 10-15 HRs and double digit steals. I must have been drunk when making that assessment.  Aviles is the 38^th best 2b, behind such standouts as Robert Andino, Brent Lilibridge and Aaron Miles. He fared a bit better against the shortstop pool, coming in at 30^th, although he is behind all glove, no-hit Brendan Ryan and Willie Bloomquist, who is all-nothing. He did have seven homers and 14 steals, but the .255 batting average and sporadic playing time made him worthless.

Jed Lowrie – It’s hard to say whether I was more incorrect about Lowrie or Aviles – it’s like comparing Bachman Turner Overdrive and Paul McCartney and Wings. I did couch my Lowrie prediction in a lot of qualifiers, but at the end of the day had him as a .274 hitter with 15 HRs and believed he was a likely top 25 player at the position. Sounds like a pretty flimsy projection. And yet, I still whiffed like Mark Reynolds does while batting/fielding. Lowrie, the 41^st ranked SS at the moment, is batting .252 and has tallied just six homers. He can’t stay healthy. I must repeat that to myself.

Daric Barton – Another horrible call. I truly believed Barton’s plate discipline would result in a cheap and easy 85 runs. I also saw him as similar to Gaby Sanchez from a few years ago, with double digit power + upside. It was clearly a deep league play, but I did advocate for Barton over James Loney. As for the tale of the tape: Barton has a .212 average, 27 runs and zero homers and has logged just 236 at bats. While Loney has sort of sucked, he’s been way better than that.

Aaron Hill – While I ranked him lower than where he was going in most drafts, I also thought Hill could bat .260 with 25 HRs and 70 runs/RBIs. The only thing that made his numbers approach my expectations was a trade to the desert. Hill currently sits at .246 with just eight homers. He does have 61 runs and 61 RBIs, so my 70/70 wasn’t too far off. But, yikes, 2009 was a long, long, long time ago.

Mitch Moreland – I thought Moreland would easily hit 20 HR and drive in 80 RBIs and that he could finish top 15 at 1b. Wow, was that wrong. Moreland has 16 HRs and never showed enough skills to get the PT required to reach 80 RBIs (he has just 51). He is not only outside the top 15 1bs, he isn’t even in the top 30.

Brandon Allen – Allen never got the playing time and he was really just a stab in the dark for me. Still, when he has gotten into games, he has done nothing. He has a .200 average and just six homers in 175 ABs.

Juan Miranda – The thought of Miranda having 20+ HR potential is laughable now. Fighting off Xavier Nady and Russell Branyan wasn’t even possible for the slugger who has sluggishly batted just .213 with seven homers in 174 ABs.

Ryan Hanigan, Josh Thole, A.J. Ellis – These guys never got the at bats to do anything. They were decent gambles, but hit just 11 HRs combined.

Mark Ellis, Sean Rodriguez, Eric Young Jr. – Ultimately they didn’t come close to anything resembling a sleeper. Thankfully, you couldn’t have spent much on them. Young did steal some bases, despite having a really hard time actually getting to first base – so there’s that!

Jose Lopez, David Freese – I thought both guys would be cheap enough to make any contributions worthwhile. Freese hasn’t played much because he has been hurt (typical), whereas Lopez hasn’t played much because he sucks (typical). Both have shown signs down the stretch, but were basically worthless throughout the year.

Robinson Cano hit his third and fourth homer yesterday.  He’s now batting .395.  This will probably sound homeless-person-crazy since we’re only 12 days into the young season, but I think Cano could win the MVP and will win the batting title.  You thought Pedroia’s MVP season was nice from a fantasy standpoint?  How’s .330 and 30 homers coming from your 2nd baseman?  You like that?  What, you want it a little higher?  Okay, how’s .335?  Yeah, that feels good, doesn’t it?  I have Cano’s 2010 projections at 90/27/100/.315/5.  Hold those numbers up to the light and they sing gospel songs that will make your ears smile.  And Cano can exceed those numbers.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Carlos Gonzalez – CarGo sounds like he’ll be shipped off to the DL. I’m officially a bad person because I’d be happy to see him get DL’d since I don’t own him anywhere.  Hey, Glockenspiel, what’s that speck on the map of Grey’s soul?  It’s a tiny city-state.  What’s the city-state called, Glockenspiel?  It’s called Schadenfreude!  This will mean more time for Seth Smith.  He’ll be covered more in this afternoon’s Buy/Sell.  Keep refreshing.  It’ll appear.

Jorge de la Rosa – 6 IP, 4 ER, 13 baserunners.  Why you little Whipper Crapper!

Bud Norris – 5 IP, 0 ER, 7 baserunners, 9 Ks.  It’s been said Chuck Norris could win at Connect Four in 3 moves.  Well, Bud Norris can strike out 9 in 5 innings (albeit using 100 pitches and walking 3 or 4).

Mat Latos – 4 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 8 baserunners.  See Jorge de la Rosa or an inch above.  Seriously, throw these three and Gio Gonzalez into a blender and you have one messy WHIP.   I like Ks, but at what price?

Astros Hitters – As a team, the Astros have 2 homers through 9 games.  Someone should take some egg whites and fold them into the Nats.  Two birds, one lemon meringue pie.  Even if Ed Wade’s toupee were pitching against the Astros, I’d start it in mixed leagues.

Carlos Zambrano – 5 IP, 3 ER, 11 baserunners.  Eh, Big Z’s a mediocre pitcher pitching mediocre, so not much to say, but he did make me think of something.  Member the Lil’ Penny Nike campaign?  Of course you do.  Put down your Razzhand.  Okay, so my question is why is there no Lil’ Z to go with Big Z?  We need a claymation expert, stat!  Lil’ Z can be on top of the Gatorade while Big Z’s flipping out.  “Look at you, the big bad man beating up a lemon-lime container!  Now everyone’s thirsty!  Sweet Lou’s gonna get sour!  You big dummy!” Hmm… My Lil’ Z sounds a bit like Redd Foxx, but we can work on that.

Derrek Lee – Returned and homered.  That is all.

Scott Kazmir – 4 IP, 6 ER.  I’m sure his owners are happy to have him back.

Casey McGehee – 1-for-3 with his third homer.  He’s in this afternoon’s Buy/Sell, too.  Yes, I am pimping it a bit because there’s an announcement in there you’re gonna wanna read.

Mike Gonzalez – He’s now going to be out about a month.  My guess is Jim Johnson is getting saves still at the end of May.

Adam LaRoche – Sat out with a tight quad.  That’s what she said!  Hey, that made more sense this time.

Chad Qualls – Second blown save in a row.  Juan Gutierrez is the backup for you save vultures.  I already grabbed him in two leagues.

Daric Barton – 2-for-5 as he hits .343 on the year.  He has little power, but you can do worse in OBP leagues.

Shin-Soo Choo – 2-for-4, 3 RBIs with his third homer.  I own him in one league and you know what?  Loving Choo is easy cause you’re beautiful.

David Huff – 9 IP, 2 ER, 5 baserunners, 4 Ks.  There’s some pitchers you grab, there’s other pitchers you let others grab.  Huff falls in the latter group, but could move to the former.  His 2008 K-rate and walk rate were decent in Triple-A, but he lost all those gains last year.  Worth watching to see if he can string some starts together, but I have my doubts.

Matt Harrison – 7 IP, 1 ER, 6 baserunners, 3 Ks.  His minor league K-rate is pretty bleh.  I wouldn’t bother outside of AL-Only leagues.

Elvis Andrus – 1-for-3, hitting leadoff.  This will mean less Runs for Borbon, but as long as he’s getting on base and stealing them, I wouldn’t worry.  I think I predicted Andrus would move to the top of the order by the middle of April.  Natch!  Actually, the prediction might’ve been for Alcides, but he’s moved up for some games, as well.  Natch point!

Cameron Maybin – 3-for-4 and a homer as he hits .310 on the year with 2 steals.  Looks like Maybin may be in (stutterer!) for a breakout.

Josh Johnson – 6 IP, 1 ER, 6 baserunners, 10 Ks.  His porn star brother, Gosh Johnson, would be proud.

Alexei Ramirez – Homered yesterday.  It is still early, and he usually doesn’t start playing until May, but I’m not sure how much I believe you’re ever going to fully enjoy owning Alexei.

Travis Snider – Hallelujah!  Snider hit a homer yesterday.  I still think he could go back to striking out every fifth AB.  The potential is there though.

Fred Lewis – The Blue Jays acquired Lewis.  If this doesn’t push them over the Yanks, Sawx and Rays, I don’t know what does.

J.A. Happ – 5 1/3 IP, 0 ER, 9 baserunners, 6 BBs as sabermetricians cry onto their calculators.  Here’s a clean BABIP, wipe those tears away.

Ian Desmond – 2-for-4, and a steal as he batted second.  Man, that was long overdue.  I hope we’re not heading down FeLopezian territory where every time I think about dropping Desmond he does just enough to buy himself some more time.

Ryan Zimmerman – After sitting out the last couple, he snuck into the game for a pinch hit homer.  Yeah, you got sonavabenched.  It’s all right, so did I with…

Francisco Liriano – 7 IP, 0 ER, 6 baserunners, 8 Ks.  Sonavabench!  But he was going against the Red Sox!  He gave up 5 BBs to the White Sox in his last start.  It was the right call to bench him for the Red Sox.  Why do you hate me fantasy baseball gods?  Is it because I don’t capitalize gods?  Was it my crack about Jim Abbot two months ago?  I apologize to you and commenter, IowaCubs.  Please, embrace me again!  The rain makes me shiver.  Don’t let me shiver.  Okay, thanks for letting me vent.  Liriano goes against the Indians next time out.  Yes, please.  Though, he could go against the 1927 Yankees featuring a 2001 time traveling Barry Bonds and I’d start Liriano.  I’ve learned my lesson!

Jacoby Ellsbury – Can’t breath without sharp pain in his side.  Obviously, not a good thing.  He may end up *pinkie to mouth* D’Ellsburied.

Edwin Encarnacion – Will be out a few days with a sore arm.  If only he were a bigger star, so I could’ve used the title, “Clipped Edwing.”

Jose Guillen – Revealed yesterday that he almost died in 2009.  The Royals had the day  off and Guillen’s not hitting homers, so he reveals this?  Sounds like someone might be getting addicted to the press coverage.  This is how Heidi Montag started.  Before you know it, Butler won’t be the only one with a size C rack.

The Rangers bullpen costing C.J. Wilson the win is like ten thousand spoons and all you need is a knife.  Maybe Frank-Frank didn’t like Wilson cutting into his save chances last year.  I was skeptical of Wilson moving into the rotation.  I said to myself, “Grey, you’re handsome.”  Wait, wrong conversation.  I remember it now.  “Grey, why not start Neftali Feliz?  Why they fussing with C.J. Wilson?”  I didn’t have an answer and wasn’t sure why I was using the word “fussing.”  It’s like when you get mail order bride emails.  Wouldn’t they be email order brides?  Some questions have no answers.  But I’m ready to hush that fuss.  C.J. Wilson has always rocked an impressive K-rate as a reliever and, if he can maintain that and his walks, he could be a huge surprise in the rotation.  Am I a fan of Arlington for pitchers in the summer?  Nope, but let’s get there first, shall we?  Wilson could give you a K/IP and a solid just under-4 ERA.  I’m buying!  Oh, and welcome to all the Googlers of “I’m buying” + “mail order bride.”  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Taylor Teagarden – 0-for-4, but enough about the negatives.  Saltymochachino is out for at least 15 days with back stiffness and it’s not like Salty was doing anything anyway.  Ron Washington said Salty was only the starting catcher because “his name goes to eleven.”

Frank Francisco – 2/3 IP, 3 ER as he blew the save.  As a commenter said yesterday, Frank-Frank fail-fail.

Julio Borbon – 0-for-the-season.  Will be in this afternoon’s Buy/Sell.  Your breath is bated.

Ian Kinsler – Was given another cortisone shot in his ankle.  Now his ankle really won’t have any wrinkles!  Wait, what?  Yeah, I’m not a doctor, but this will delay Kinsler return a few more days.  I’m guessing it’ll be at least two more weeks.

Aaron Hill – Sat out due to hamstring tightness.  He only missed 4 games last year.  His numbers last year had a lot to do with him accumulating many² at-bats.  It’s a situation that bears watching, Timothy Treadwell.

Travis Snider – 0-for-4, 3 Ks.  With the way he’s going, he’ll be in the minors within two weeks.

Ronnie Belliard – 3-for-5 with a Double, Triple and Homer as he hit for The Hungry Man Cycle.

Chad Billingsley – 5 1/3 IP, 9 baserunners, 7 Ks.  If I wanted to emphasize the baserunners, I would’ve listed them last.  Instead, I chose to put the strikeouts last.  I’m a big fan of Bills.  A Billiever, if you will.  However, this was an ugly start.

Paul Maholm – 6 IP, 4 ER.  For those who think they’re outsmarting everyone by finding value on the Pirates staff, this start was against the Dodgers B lineup.

Hayden Penn – Why is the girl from Heroes pitching for the Pirates?

Orlando Hudson – Left the game with what appeared to be a neck injury.  Could mean Nick Punto at 2nd on Friday.  Shandler must be happy.

Jim Thome – 2-for-4, HR yesterday.  Started at DH for the 2nd straight game.  Yeah, that’s not good for Delmon Young’s playing time.

Kevin Slowey – My almost preseason Cy Young pick threw five and a third and allowed only one run.  Have much love for Slowey this year.

Carlos Beltran – Set to begin a running program.  A source told ESPN, “He’s a professional.  His body will dictate what to do.  He’s progressing great.”  Here’s what I hear, “Trite statement.  Statement that can be misconstrued to mean more than it does.  Lie.”  Then Beltran said, “Right now I don’t want to talk about when I’m going to come back if I haven’t run yet.  When I run, then that can give me an idea of where I am. Right now it’s hard for me to say.”  Here’s what I hear, “I’m not lying for the Mets.  They can suck it.”

Luis Castillo – Will sit Friday with a calf injury.  Whatever, Reyes returns Saturday!

Jeff Niemann – Was hit by a line drive in the arm, not the knee, man.  Should make his next start as he’s listed as Day-to-Day.  Where is this master Day-to-Day list?  Is there some guy in Barbados sipping coladas keeping this list?  I’d like to know.

Jon Niese – 6 IP, 3 ER, 3 Ks as he battled Nate Robertson (5 IP, 1 ER, 4 Ks).  Reminded me of the epic battles between Nies and Heather B.

Randy Wells – 6 IP, 8 baserunners, 1 K as sabermetricians shake their fist at his BABIP.

Marlon Byrd – Another homer yesterday.  All he does is hit homers!  No, really, his only two hits this year are homers.

Tyler Colvin – HR yesterday.  He’s an older rookie prospect who never played Triple-A.  He’s pretty deep on the depth charts and profiles as a 4th outfielder.  Has some pop in his bat, but no starting job unless The Mummy asks for his knees back from Soriano.

Chipper Jones – Glass Chipper left with a boo-boo.  Boo boo, indeed.  He’ll be out for 2-3 days with a strained oblique.  Chipper definitely keeps strained obliques in business.

Don Kelly – Started at 3B for Detroit today.  For some reason, he makes me think of Adam Dunn, Mark Reynolds, and Ian Stewart.  Then again, sometimes I have a hard time seeing L’s.

Miguel Cabrera – 4-for-5, 4 RBIs and a homer.  Another sober day in the office for Miggy, but what’s interesting is how he’s tried to steal twice already.  If he can somehow swipe 10 bags (it’s a stretch), he could be the most valuable fantasy hitter this year.

Billy Butler -1-for-2 with his third Warning Track Fly of the year.  Could lead the league in WTF’s.

Daric Barton – 3-for-4, 4 RBIs.  For what it’s Wuertz, Barton reminds me of Gaby Sanchez.  It’s neither a compliment nor an insult.

Nolan Reimold – HR yesterday.  Take that, Achilles!  Pee-ay is out with an injury and Reimold’s making the most of his time.  If the Orioles come to their senses, Reimold really should be the starter.  If he is, all bets are off.  Or maybe that’s on.  Either way, he should be owned.

Brian Matusz – 5 IP, 2 ER, 7 baserunners, 5 BBs.  This kinda blew my mind.  When I was doing the Buy/Sell that’s coming later today, I was looking at the percentage owned at the major sites.  Matusz is owned in 98% of ESPN leagues.  I think Matusz is talented, so don’t take this wrong way, but he will roofie you.  98% seems way too confident and tells me people could be overrating him for this year.  But the mind blowing part is coming in the next blurb, follow me…

Justin Masterson – 5 IP, 6 baserunners, 1 ER, 5 Ks.  Here’s what I said in my rankings, “He induces groundballs and gets strikeouts, that’s not a combo that should be scoffed at.  Even if the only people that scoff at something are in Merchant-Ivory films.”  And that’s me quoting me!  Oh, and Masterson’s owned in 2% of ESPN leagues.  That’s two.  Wha…?

Kerry Wood – Will throw from 110 feet on Friday.  So he’s now pitching from 2nd base?  Oh-kay.  Still not returning until the end of May.

Brad Penny – 7 IP, 1 ER, 4 Ks.  Put a straitjacket on a pitcher and throw him in a milk can and Dave Duncan will get him out.  Don’t try and figure it out, just know that Penny can now be a reliable 4th fantasy starter.

Bronson Arroyo – 8 IP, 1 ER, 6 Ks.  Maybe he won’t wait until the 2nd half this year to be good, but I’m not risking it.  Also, Arroyo was hit by a comebacker and might miss his next start.  Too bad, so sad.

Mike Sweeney – 1-for-4, 1 RBI.  Dave Eggers’ favorite hitter got his first start as Seattle’s DH.  He’s only DH-eligible in most leagues now and probably won’t have 1B-eligibility until end of May at the earliest.  So unless you’re in a 14-team AL-only league, he’s not going to give you any value.

Doug Fister – 4 IP, 2 ER.  Has there ever been a pitcher/catcher combo that warranted the ‘battery’ name more than today’s Mariner tandem of Fister-Moore?

Ichiro Suzuki/Franklin Gutierrez/Milton Bradley – It’s like having two Gold Glove outfielders and one Golden Glove outfielder.