A couple of years ago Bret Sayre invited me to participate in his dynasty league – The Dynasty Guru Expert League, or TDGX. At the time I was writing for him at his site, and while I don’t anymore, I’ve been allowed to remain in the league as a representative of Razzball. I’d like to say my team has been killing it, but that hasn’t been the case in the first two years. The league is a lot of fun, and there are representatives from sites like Baseball Prospectus, Fangraphs, Baseball HQ, and CBS. It’s deep and it’s challenging. Tim McLeod and Ian Khan took the championship in each of the first two years, so major kudos to them.Please, blog, may I have some more?
It happens every year. Bath time is disrupted by the ringing of my flip phone. Thinking it’s Subway getting back to me about my sandwich artist application, I rush out of the tub to answer. Alas, it’s just a college buddy wanting me to fill an abandoned team in his dynasty league. Now there’s water all over the floor. These teams are almost always terrible. It’s like buying a car and finding out there’s no engine and the seat cushions smell like homicide. Now what? We rebuild it baby! Whether the team’s suckiness is your own doing or the work of a deadbeat previous owner, rebuilding can be painful. If the team is just completely barren or is full of bloated contracts, there are players you can target now to speed up the process and get things moving in the right direction.Please, blog, may I have some more?
With three full months of baseball left to be played, a third horse may be emerging in the race for the first Razznasty dynasty league crown. R’azbahl Al Ghul has made solid win-now pickups and finds himself gaining some ground on the two frontrunners – Hannibal Montana and J-FOH. This month saw a group of about five or six teams ping-ponging around behind the leaders, but it’s been Ghul who has come out of June with sole possession of third place. Here is what else is happening around the league – including full standings, trades, and our league’s FAAB report…Please, blog, may I have some more?
Dude’s on fire. No. Need better! He is a high-speed torrent download of a yule log burning. Need better! He is Smokey the Bear at a Porno for Pyros concert, wearing earbuds and listening to Firestarter by Prodigy. Need better still! He’s a pyrotechnician smacking a sparkler out of your hand and giving you instead the detonator for the Statue of Liberty’s 4th of July celebration fireworks. Yesterday, Mitch Moreland went 2-for-3 with 4 RBIs and his 13th and 14th homers, and now has five homers in four games and six homers in six games. I already told you yesterday that Moreland has been better than Brandon Belt, Lucas Duda and Brandon Moss, and some other corner infidels, according to our Player Rater. That’s on the year, not in the last week. In the last week, Moreland’s been better than everyone. Let’s take a hootie-hoo at who Moreland has more homers than on the year: Prince Fielder, Beltre (not close), Adam Jones, Big Papi, Tommy Tomstein, Freeman, Yoenis, Billy McDugal, Kris Bryant, Tulo, McClutchin and Sandoval. Sure, some of those guys I only named to rub salt in my own wounds — I hate you, Sandoval! — and other guys I mentioned don’t even exist, but Mitch don’t kill my vibe for the better part of the season now, and, if he’s available, I’d grab him. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
The title comes from Rudyard Gamble’s novel about a young Astros prospect named Carlos Correa that is saved by a non-Portuguese man named Jeff. Jeff Luhnow is his full name, and he’s the only straight man named Jeff in the northern hemisphere. A point that Rudyard only alludes to in the 4th chapter, when he says, “As he read the Doppler radar outputs that track the ball in three dimensions, Jeff chewed corn from the cob, careful to not disturb his mustache that still had the fragrance of a dame.” The adventure novel is full of twists and turns. Correa is signed as a 17-year-old in 2012 and hits, then is called up to Single-A and hits, then is called up to High-A and hits, then is called up to Double-A–Now that I think about it, it’s pretty straightforward. Not too many twists. Correa hits everywhere he goes. According to the novel, Correa even succeeds when he comes upon a fellmonger on the Appalachian plain. Rudyard’s adventure novel first appeared in serialisation form in SABReader’s Digest underneath the horoscope. A fact that once disturbed Rudyard, but when his horoscope read, “The two-plus months of waiting are over, Correa’s being called up,” even he took pause. Any the hoo! I already went over my Carlos Correa fantasy about two weeks ago. I told everyone to grab him then, so the same holds true now. If you don’t think you have room, think of the trouble Jeff, Rudyard and Correa went through to make this possible. Anyway, here’s what else I saw this weekend in fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
This is the SAGNOF Special “broken record edition” where I repeat things I’ve touched on in the past. Danny Santana bad. Rajai Davis good. But let’s start with: sell Steven Souza. Why? So many reasons, but the most important are his 37% K rate and 35.7% HR/FB. The K rate is bound to come down some, but how much? 32-35% might still be too high for Souza to have great value going forward, once the HR/FB rate regresses. To put that HR/FB rate in perspective, last year’s leader among qualified batters was Jose Abreu, with 26.9%. Nelson Cruz‘s HR/FB rate was “only” 20.4% last year. So on the one hand you can be very successful with a much lower HR/FB rate, on the other hand if Souza’s HR/FB rate were halved and we assume that half of his home runs were instead FB outs, his AVG drops from .238 to .206. While he can in fact have value with such a low AVG, the problem is, will the Rays send him down? To look at it another way, think of how low his average might be during a 3-4 week home run drought. So who to trade for? If you want a similar type player maybe Charlie Blackmon or Gregory Polanco. If you need some pitching maybe Jake Arrieta. In any case, I’m trying to tell you to trade him as a player batting .238 with 10 home runs and 7 stolen bases, because that’s what he’s done. So if you trade him make sure you get plenty in return because you are assuming the risk that he can lower his K% down to 32%-ish while maintaining a HR/FB of above 20%, because if he can do those things he can be pretty good. But I don’t think his value will ever be higher than it is right now.Please, blog, may I have some more?
If you search for the pitchers with the top xFIPs, it’s a who’s who of the league’s finest. It’s not quite as glamorous as the Who’s Who of Western Appalachian High School Students that your parents paid $25 for you to get your picture in, but it’s still pretty illustrious. Kershaw on top, then Salazar, F-Her, Gerrit, Carrasco, Pineda, Archer, Shields, Scherzer, Harvey and Lynn. If your pitching staff was just those guys, you may not be currently winning your pitching categories, but you will by the end of the year, or your money back1. Right after Lynn in the list is Clay Buchholz, then after him it continues to be purdy: Arrieta, Kluber, Lester and so on2. Out of all of those pitchers, Kershaw, Shields and Salazar are the only ones with a better K-rate with Buchholz’s at 11.5. 11.5 K/9 is excellent and is the 4th best in the majors. Buchholz’s walk rate isn’t bad either at 2.87 — under 3 is solid. Under three walk rate with an 11.5 K/9 is an ace. Only thing is, his ERA is 6.03. Oopsie! Right now, his BABIP is .407. A .407 BABIP is basically the equivalent to an easy grounder is headed right to a fielder, but the ball is grabbed by a possum and the possum runs the ball around the infield for five minutes as the hitter goes around the bases for an inside-the-parker. If Buchholz is available in your league, I’d absolutely grab him, and could even see trading for him in deeper leagues9.
1You just need to sell my Jose Canseco Sportsflics rookie card to get that money back.
2Yes, I said so on rather than list Bartolo Colon3.
3Yes, by footnoting Bartolo Colon I am sorta listing him4.
4My autocorrect wanted to change sorta to Sorat. Is that Borat’s sister5?
5I miss Sacha Baron Cohen. Shame what happened to him.6
6My intern says nothing happened to him, he just picked crappy films to be in7.
7The Spirit of David Foster Wallace has taken over my body8.
9Anyway, here’s some more players to buy or sell this week in fantasy baseball:
The title’s not to be confused with a Wahlburger. By the by, Marky Mark was at my gym the other day. My man’s short. He looked like a Caucasian Altuve. Steal some bases, Marky Mark! You know, there’s nothing quite as frustrating as setting your weekly lineup and having your star go down the moment games begin on Monday. It’s more frustrating than the person in front of you trying to locate exact change. Use your debit card! What do you mean you’re going to see if there’s some loose change in your car ashtray? Cars don’t even have ashtrays anymore! In the preseason, I supposed that Hanley Ramirez would need to be moved to shortstop at some point, unable to handle The Green Monster. Yesterday, Hanley got a taste of Wally. The Red Sox said it’s a shoulder sprain, which could mean he’s back in a few days or out until July. Yay, specifics! On a related note, a Red Sox reporter from The Boston Globe tweeted in the 2nd inning, “It’s 4-0 Rays. Red Sox season could be done soon at this rate. Losses and injuries piling up.” I’m in no way a Red Sox fan, but really? Done because you’re losing in the 2nd inning of an early May game and your team is practically at .500? Wow, is that guy a Masshole. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
Perhaps the title to this week’s post was influenced by the fact that I just watched Miguel Cabrera smack a 432-foot home run for his second of the day, bringing his season total to 5 home runs and 83 fantasy points. Don’t look now, but Miggy is batting .370 and is quietly climbing his way to the top. Or perhaps today’s title has been influenced by the fact that, as I write this, I am also in the process of packing my bags to get ready to take my family to Disney World. Actually, I am certain it’s a combination of both.Please, blog, may I have some more?
You do it every day in your regular fantasy leagues when you stream hitters or pitchers and yet something holds you back at times in the DFS world. You see a matchup that is exploitable for fantasy goodness and you use it if you’re in your roto league. Then you go about setting your lineups over on DraftKings, pay for Matt Harvey and Max Scherzer and move on. Where’s your sense of daring there? Of all places to get a little bolder, it should be in your DFS world. Ya only got one day to be Wright or Wong and as Jigsaw would say, ‘make your choice’. So with that in mind and with the obvious names already named so I don’t have to talk about them later, let’s move on to a good GPP play for today in Roenis Elias. First off, for those who aren’t plugged in to the MLB world, this isn’t a random call up for the Mariners. Roenis pitched 163 innings for the Mariners last year, finishing the year with a 3.85 ERA and a 7.86 K/9. All this to say, we’re not dealing with a random spot call up. The kid has major league ability and against an Astros team that Ks 24.2% of the time against LHP, you could have a cheap 7 to 8 Ks today. Wanna spend up for the big two instead? Be my guest but on a slate featuring 28 pitchers, I’m looking for the arms that’ll give me room to get bats that’ll put me over the top. And with a lede out of the way, lets turn to other hot takes for the May 1st DK slate…
New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 25 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.Please, blog, may I have some more?