Fantasy Baseball Advice

We continue our 2012 fantasy baseball rankings with the top 20 2nd basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball.  There’s no 2nd baseman in the top 10 for 2012 fantasy baseball.  At least by my calculation.  Some ‘perts are putting Cano in the top 10, but I see him just outside of the top 10, but then again 2nd base is packed to the rafters with production.  It looks deeper than the 1st basemen pool and I’m only being half-facetious.  It’s like all 2nd basemen slept at a Holiday Inn last night.  There’s 15 guys I would take and if I had a middle infield spot on my roster, I’d definitely look to put a 2nd baseman in there.  As with the previous ranking lists, tiers and my projections are noted.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 2nd basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball:

1. Robinson Cano – See the top 20 for 2012 fantasy baseball for Robinson Cano’s projections.

2. Ian Kinsler – See the top 20 for 2012 fantasy baseball for Ian Kinsler’s projections.

3. Dustin Pedroia – See the top 20 for 2012 fantasy baseball for Dustin Pedroia’s projections.

4. Dan Uggla – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Utley (or Cuddyer, if he has eligibility).  I call this tier, “I see good value.  Draft one.”  This tier name sounds like I’m a handicapper for horse races.  Gambler’s Ruin is great on mud, put all your money on him!   Member when Dan Uggla was hitting, like, .180 and it was July and you were like, “Screw this, homie!  I’m going gangster on my team and trading Uggla for an Obama Chia.”  Then your neighbor saw that getting dropped off at your doorstep, stole it and Uggla went on to hit in like 40 games straight.  Nothing ever works out for you, huh?  Now I’m Worried you left on the oven after drying your pantyhose.  (That Twitter feed is a friend’s.  You follow now, thank you.)  Uggla wasn’t quite the hitter we saw during his hitting streak (no kidding!) but he isn’t a sub-.200 hitter either.  Or is it eyether?  Let’s call this whole thing off!  Wait, he is a 35 homer hitter.  I’ll take that and a box of Ding Dongs!  And, no, box of Ding Dongs isn’t a new Timberlake/Samberg song.  (Yes, that’s two days and two ding dong jokes.  My cup runneth over with ding dong jokes.  I am the ding dongiest!)  2012 Projections:  90/35/105/.250/3

5. Howie Kendrick – Sometimes when you go out on a limb, the limb breaks and you fall on your ass.  That might happen with Kendrick in 2012, but I’m going all in.  From 2010 to 2011 in 18 less games, he went from 10 homers to 18 homers and struck out more.  His HR/FB rate was high and he’s injury-prone.  It points to flukey.  I see a guy with 15 homer power, 15 steal speed, 100 runs and 75 RBIs potential that should hit around .290.  It’s okay, but what puts me over on him is he’s in the prime of his career so he should max out his power and look like Pedroia at a cheaper cost.  Oh, and one thing that’s been criminally under-reported, the Angels added Pujols.  You think someone would’ve talked about that.  2012 Projections:  100/18/70/.290/15

6. Brandon Phillips – Joey Votto’s gonna win the MVP and Brandon Phillips is going to be hoisted onto Jay Bruce’s shoulders next October with the team dedicating their World Series victory to their former pitching coach, Dick Pole.  Just so they can see people on Twitter snicker at his mention.  That’s how I see things playing out.  Phillips won’t be their regular season hero; he’ll be a piece.  The wily vet that plays 150 games a year and gets all those counting stats and has some power and speed that people credit more for their clubhouse leadership.  Whatever, B.P. is still greasing up some decent stats for his position.  2012 Projections:  90/20/85/.275/17

7. Chase Utley – Nah, he’s not winning the MVP again.  Well, I guess anything’s possible if he’s wearing one of Ryan Braun’s Ed Hardy t-shirts, but it seems like the best is behind him like J. Lo.  Then throw in you have no idea how long Ryan Howard is going to be out, then throw in Utley’s inability to stay healthy, then throw in his pomade, then throw in a leprechaun’s toenail and the steam that rises from the brew you threw all that in reads, “Utley should be avoided.”  Now what if I said I didn’t agree?  He’s never had a season of 120+ games where he’s been useless.  Granted, getting to 120 games has been an issue, but we knew going into last year he wasn’t going to be right.  When he did come back, his speed was fine.  Like he was never hurt.  His power was off, but so was his homers per fly ball.  His average was off, but so was his luck.  He’s going to get you 2nd to 3rd round numbers at a much cheaper price than he usually is.  BTW, if he’s bad this year, his career’s in trouble.  I think he knows that too.  2012 Projections:  80/20/85/.280/15

7 1/4. Michael Young – Only has 14 games at 2nd so he may not have eligibility in all leagues.  To see Young’s projections go to the top 20 1st basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball.

7 1/2. Michael Cuddyer – Only has 17 games at 2nd base, so he gets a half ranking.  To see Cuddyer’s projections go to the top 20 1st basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball.

8. Ben Zobrist – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Weeks.  I call this tier, “Others are taking these guys before me.”  I really don’t like Zobrist.  His stats are just too flaky for my tastes.  One year he hits .297 then .238 then .269.  Then he hits 27 homers then 10 then 20.  “Hey, fella, how about you just hit 17 homers and stop confusing Grey?!”  That’s you in the first row behind the Rays’ dugout because you’re protecting my honor.  Thx, btw!  (Don’t you love when someone abbreviates thanks as thx?  Gee, thanks so much for showing me your appreciation by almost writing a WHOLE SIX LETTER WORD!)  I’m ranking Zobrist later than most ‘perts because I don’t want him, but if he fell to me I would take him because he seems like he’s capable of a 15/15 season.  Plus or minus 15 homers and steals.  Yeah, he’s all over the map.  2012 Projections:  75/17/90/.255/17

9. Rickie Weeks – Stop me if you’ve heard this before– Stop!  I haven’t said anything yet, Random Italicized Voice.  I’ve heard, “Stop me if you’ve heard this before” before.  Here’s the games played for Weeks over his career — 96, 95, 118, 129, 37, 160, 118.  Throw out 37 and 160 and on average he plays in 118 games.  Or maybe that’s the median.  Or the mean.  I don’t know.  What I do know is he can’t stay healthy.  He can repeat his power output from last year and chuck in about 10 steals if he’s healthy, but that “if” is the size of Gilbert Grape’s mom.  2012 Projections:  65/18/50/.260/10

10. Danny Espinosa – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Kelly Johnson.  I call this tier, “Shine’s off these guys, but I like them.  Even if they might hit .240 collectively.”  At 24 years old, Espinosa hit 21 homers and stole 17 bases.  That’s the good news.  The very good news is he can hit more homers and steal more bases.  The so-so news is it might not be much more of either.  The bad news is he hit .236.  The not good or not bad news is his luck was neutral.  The “Is this really even news anymore?” news is Espinosa won’t ever hit for much of an average without luck.  The last bit of news is I’m not wearing pants.  2012 Projections:  80/24/90/.240/19

11. Aaron Hill – Here’s what I said towards the end of last year, “Hill looked to be an average issue hitter that could at least give you power.  Not this year.  His power completely evaporated.  Oddly enough, he doubled his line drive rate from 2010 and lowered his K-rate.  In short (which I only say after going long), Hill’s season made no sense.  Seriously, I can’t make heads or tails of it.  Yes, even in hindsight it’s not 20/20.  It will take some brass ones to go all in on Hill again next year, but I’m leaning that way right now.”  And that’s me quoting me!  Now, looking at Hill, I’m still no cyclops with a monocle.  What we do know is he hit .315 in Arizona in the 33 games after he was traded.  It’s something!  I don’t get where those 21 steals came from last year, but if it was some kind of deal with the devil, he forgot to specify to leave his power alone and the devil duped him.  You duping devil!  2012 Projections:  70/18/80/.265/15

12. Kelly Johnson – After a trade that sent Hill to the D-Backs and Johnson to the Jays, these two will be forever linked.  Or just for right now in the rankings.  Either way, let’s pretend we’re in the first semester of our junior year of high school and we’re taking the SATs.  The final question will send you to either Brown or nowhere because you refuse to have a safety school.  Question:  In 2008, Kelly Johnson hit .287.  In 2009, he hit .224.  In 2010, he hit .284.  In 2011, he hit .222.  What will he hit in 2012?  You know the answer; Brown’s within reach!  You say he’ll hit around .280 and… You’re wrong.  You then go on a 15-month bender that finds you waiting tables on an over-60 cruise ship and making out with grandmothers.  His good/bad alternating averages don’t mean anything, except it does tell us it’s not out of the realm of possibility for Johnson to hit something respectable.  2012 Projections:  80/20/70/.265/14

13. Jason Kipnis – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Ackley.  I call this tier, “Sleepers or guys that are overdrafted depending on how smart your leaguemates think they are.”  What I mean by the tier name is in leagues with people who prep the day before and just fly by the seat of their pants, this tier probably won’t be that known unless you’re in Cleveland, Seattle or Oakland.  In leagues where owners started prepping last November, there’s giant flashing lights on this tier’s players to the point where people will probably reach for them way too early.  As for Jason Kipnis, I already went over my Kipnis 2012 fantasy.  I wrote it enclosed with a giant heart on a bathroom stall.  2012 Projections:  80/14/60/.255/12

14. Jemile Weeks – Member when 2nd base was a speed position?  Was before Bret Boone started frosting his hair.  All of these 2nd basemen that are on the scene today probably idolized Boone and his frosted tips.  They probably even went as far to emulate him and frosted their hair too.  When Jemile frosted his hair, his classmates probably called him Sisqo, which is downright embarrassing, so he decided to rebel against the power 2nd baseman and work on his speed.  Or not.  Simply a theory.  Weeks reminds me a bit of Luis Castillo.  That takes some air out of your Jemile Weeks balloon, huh?  Hey, Castillo had some good years.  2012 Projections:  90/3/50/.265/30

15. Dustin Ackley – I’m having a real hard time understanding the hype on Ackley.  To the point where I’m not drafting him unless he falls pretty far.  He’s never hit more than 9 homers at any level of professional ball or stole more than 8 bases.  Granted, these were abbreviated seasons, but he’s also going to be playing his home games in a terrible hitting park.  I’m gonna let someone else take the chance that he shows his ceiling of 15 homers and 15 steals while expecting he shows something closer to… 2012 Projections:  80/12/55/.265/12

16. Ryan Roberts – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Beckham.  I call this tier, “Post-hype and no hype guys.  I guess I’ll draft them, but they’d have to be super cheap.”  Ryan Roberts reads to me like a Ryan Ludwick/Casey McGehee-type.  Never considered much of anything, then they explode on the scene at a late age, then they return to Back To Wherever You Came From-ville (which has higher real estate prices than I’m So Outta Here-ville cause of the influx of has-beens).  There should be a glossary term for these type of no hype players that only have one good year.  Suggest in the comments.  2012 Projections:  55/13/65/.245/15

17. Neil Walker – This guy isn’t far off from Ryan Roberts.  They’re pretty much flip-floppable (Made Up Word of the Day!).  But since Roberts just came off a better season, I put them in this order.  Could see Walker outperforming him in 2012, but not by much since Walker doesn’t have huge power or speed.  Not that Roberts does either… Whatever, I don’t like either, stop arguing with me!  2012 Projections:  70/12/80/.270/7

18. Gordon Beckham – Something that hasn’t been reported (or at least by me) is:  Could Ozzie leaving town have a positive impact on some White Sox players?  You know, the guys that he used to ball-bust.  I wouldn’t be shocked if Beckham comes around as a post-hype sleeper just to prove Ozzie wrong.  Am I betting a whole lot that that (stutterer!) is gonna happen?  Oh, hells no!  Beckham just came off a season where 21% of all of his fly balls were infield pop-ups.  That’s terrible.  In my opinion (and, really, if you don’t want my opinion, you’re probably reading the wrong site), a hitter can’t make worst contact than an infield pop.  By drafting Beckham, you’re basically saying that his last two years were a fluke and he’s going to fix everything.  Put the chances of that happening in one hand and the chances of it not happening in the other hand and you have two empty hands.  Can’t really weigh chances.  Maybe you shouldn’t have quit college to become a scale.  2012 Projections:  55/14/70/.260/5

19. Ryan Raburn – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Roberts.  I call this tier, “Fool me once, shame on you.  Fool me twice and shame on you again.  I’m good at displacing blame.”  Bill James still believes.  He has Raburn’s 2012 projections down for 18/4.  Last year was the chance for Raburn to become relevant.  He’s going to be 31 years old for the majority of the 2012 season.  I got better things to do than draft a 31-year-old player who has never shown much of anything.  Not to mention, there’s been talk of him blahtooning with Ramon Santiago.  That’s nice, have fun!  2012 Projections:  40/12/50/.275/3

20. Brian Roberts – I’m sure Brian Roberts never thought he’d be passed on the rankings by a name that people used to mistakenly call him.  Here’s the world’s smallest violin.  Here’s me putting the world’s smallest violin on eBay.  Here’s someone Buying It Now for one cent and playing it just for Brian Roberts.  2012 Projections:  65/5/35/.260/12

After the top 20 2nd basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball, there’s a lot of names but these stand out, for better or worse:

Daniel Murphy – I left him off the top 20 1st basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball and that top 20 went to, like, 30.  Honestly, seriously, Cliff Lee, I can’t imagine drafting Murphy anywhere.  If he hits in the beginning of the year, you can pick him off waivers in most leagues as a hot schmotato.  2012 Projections:  75/12/60/.275/5

Sean Rodriguez – I almost feel the same way about Sean-Rod as I do with Raburn.  Go reread Raburn’s blurb in the passive voice.  The one positive on Sean-Rod that Raburn lacks is age.  Sean-Rod will only be 27 this April.  If there’s no one left on the board, I’d take the flyer and hope Sean-Rod does something.  His K-rate tells me he probably won’t.  2012 Projections:  55/14/65/.230/10

Jose Altuve – I haven’t written a Jose Altuve sleeper post yet, but my Magic Eight Ball says, “There’s a chance you write a sleeper post on Jose Altuve.”  When I bought this Magic Eight Ball in 1989, I never understood why it kept saying that.  In the minors, Altuve showed he could get to double digit power and low 20′s steal-speed.  I’ve seen worse.  You feel me?!  If you do, could you stop?  I hate looking at Astros hitters for anything other than which pitchers to stream against them, but Altuve looks like he could have some sneaky value.  Now to figure out why my Magic Eight Ball keeps telling me to write a sleeper post for Ken Griffey Jr. Jr. Jr.  2012 Projections:  80/12/40/.265/24 (<–crazy optimistic, but whatevs)

We already went over the top 20 catchers and the top 20 1st basemen for 2011 fantasy baseball.  Today, it’s all about the top 20 2nd basemen.  The 2nd basemen pool was shallow, and, for the first time in as long as I can remember, the 2nd basemen, shortstops and 3rd basemen were more or less of equal depth.  For instance, Darwin Barney was ranked 20th for 2nd basemen and 19th for shortstops, and Daniel Murphy was ranked 15th for 2nd basemen and 16th for 3rd basemen.  To recap, this final ranking for last year is from ESPN Player Rater with my comments.  The Player Rater allows me to be impartial while looking at how I ranked them in the preseason.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 2nd basemen for 2011 fantasy baseball and how they compare to where I originally ranked them:

1. Dustin Pedroia – It didn’t hurt Pedroia that the Sawx were in the hunt for a playoff spot until the very end of September.  Lot better than guys who are coasting through the last two weeks.  Pedroia actually didn’t exceed expectations by as much as his stats would seem.  What he did was get more PAs than were on the last Michael Bay film.  When a player exceeds 700 plate appearances, he’s bound to put up some good stats, unless his name is Nick Markakis.  Preseason Rank #4, 2011 Projections:  105/15/65/.290/15, Final Numbers:  102/21/91/.307/26

2. Robinson Cano – The curious case of Robinson Cano.  In the preseason, I said he was overrated, yet I gave him projections pretty close to where he ended up.  So was I right and he was overrated?  I’m gonna say no.  He wasn’t quite the 1st round pick that some people were making him, but considering how terrible most high picks did and how shallow 2nd base is, Cano provided stability and stats.  Preseason Rank #1, 2011 Projections:  100/27/100/.310/3, Final Numbers:  104/28/118/.302/8

3. Ian Kinsler – In the preseason, I ranked Kinsler above where most ‘perts had him.  I wanted to believe he could stay healthy one of these years.  Bingo bango!  Preseason Rank #2, 2011 Projections:  85/22/60/.270/17, Final Numbers:  121/32/77/.255/30

4. Michael Young – Went over him in the top 20 1st basemen for 2011 post.

5. Brandon Phillips – He seems like he’s always planking on a 18/14 season give or take a few homers and steals.  His average was high for him this year.  That was partly due to his line drive rate being up, partly due to his luck.  Maybe The Ghost of a Racist Marge Schott was trying to make amends by helping some of his seeing-eye hits get through.  Preseason Rank #3, 2011 Projections:  85/20/70/.270/17, Final Numbers:  94/18/82/.300/14

6. Ben Zobrist – He had three big months (April, July and September) and three terrible months.  Like off the charts bad (June:  zero homers and 2 steals; August:  1 homer, .250; May:  2 homers, 0 steals, .232 and only 5 RBIs in 99 ABs; that’s e to the gregious).  I never feel confident enough to draft Zobrist because he still seems like an overachieving utility man to me, but as Zobrist would say, “Don’t call me a utility man and don’t call Creed Christian rock.”  Preseason Rank #8, 2011 Projections:  70/15/70/.260/15, Final Numbers:  99/20/91/.269/19

7. Howie Kendrick – Went over him in the top 20 1st basemen for 2011 post.

8. Michael Cuddyer – Went over him in the top 20 1st basemen for 2011 post.

9. Ryan Roberts – First time in a long time that I can remember the first out of nowhere name being this low on a year end list of 2nd basemen.  Usually someone will sneak into the top 5 for a shallow position.  Last year, Kelly Johnson and Casey McGehee exceeded expectations.  The year before Zobrist and Aaron Hill emerged.  I’m not sure what this means, but I think it means something.  Razzball:  Where We Raise Questions We Can’t Answer!  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  86/19/65/.249/18

10. Dan Uggla – When I explained in the preseason why I had Uggla a bit lower than some other ‘perts, here’s what I said, “The reason why he’s ranked below some of the guys above but his projections look as good if not better is because A) Kinsler has the biggest upside.  B) Phillips and Pedroia are safer.  C) Uggla has the biggest downside in one category, i.e. he could hit .240.”  And that’s me quoting me!  In the end, he didn’t quite get to .240.  Yup.  Preseason Rank #5, 2011 Projections:  90/32/100/.265/5, Final Numbers:  88/36/82/.233/1

11. Neil Walker – Couple of things come to mind when I see how close my preseason projections were to the final numbers for Neil Walker.  A) I ranked him lower than he ended up, which means 2nd base was even shallower than I thought it would be.  B) His numbers were terrible and he still ranked this high, which is more just a continuation of the first point.  C) There’s no C.  Preseason Rank #15, 2011 Projections:  65/15/75/.260/7, Final Numbers:  76/12/83/.273/9

12. Rickie Weeks – In the preseason, I called Rickie Weeks overrated because of his injury risk.  As I said then and will say again, it was the easiest call of the preseason.  Preseason Rank #6, 2011 Projections:  85/18/65/.250/14, Final Numbers:  77/20/49/.269/9

13. Danny Espinosa – I pushed Espinosa pretty hard in the preseason because, as always, I ignore average and get all pumped up on power and speed.  He succeeded and failed where I thought he would.  Preseason Rank #21, 2011 Projections:  60/15/70/.245/17, Final Numbers:  72/21/66/.236/17

14. Jemile Weeks – Will probably be overdrafted next year.  I say this because he hasn’t shown any power, he plays in a terrible park with a terrible team and his walk rate (in the majors, at least) was pretty bleh.  With all that said (here comes opposite talk!), he had a great season for a midseason call-up.  He gave you what you were hoping to get from Chone Figgins (Member him?  No, I don’t either.).  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  50/2/36/.303/22

15. Daniel Murphy – How kiddie pool shallow were the 2nd basemen?  Murphy ranked this high and he played his last game on August 7th.  Three ladies and gentlemen, your 2011 2nd basemen!  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  49/6/49/.320/5

16. Kelly Johnson – He seems to alternate years with a hard-to-digest average.  (In 2009, it was .224.)  This coincides with a poor BABIP.  This year’s BABIP wasn’t as bad as 2009, but his K-rate was terrible, which helped attribute to the poor average.  He should be able to bounce back next year, but that’s far from a lock.  Preseason Rank #13, 2011 Projections:  80/17/.260/60/12, Final Numbers:  75/21/58/.222/16

17. Aaron Hill – Fitting that Hill and Johnson would be tied together in the year-end rankings, since they were swapped mid-year and had very similar seasons in the general sense.  In the specific, their seasons were totally different.  Hill looked to be an average issue hitter that could at least give you power.  Not this year.  His power completely evaporated.  Oddly enough, he doubled his line drive rate from 2010 and lowered his K-rate.  In short (which I only say after going long), Hill’s season made no sense.  Seriously, I can’t make heads or tails of it.  Yes, even in hindsight it’s not 20/20.  It will take some brass ones to go all in on Hill again next year, but I’m leaning that way right now.  Preseason Rank #7, 2011 Projections:  80/25/85/.275/5, Final Numbers:  61/8/61/.246/21

18. Martin Prado – During the preseason, I ranked him extremely low at 17th overall for 2nd basemen.  This was such blasphemy, Matthew Berry called me out during one of his chats to say I was stoopid (sic).  Turned out I didn’t rank him low enough, with rank being the key word.  Preseason Rank #17, 2011 Projections:  85/12/60/.300/5, Final Numbers:  66/13/57/.260/4

19. Chase Utley – Sadly, the Utley we fell in love with in 2005 is no longer with us.  This new version is brittle like his pomade after it dries.  On a side note, with the loss of Howard for most if not all of 2012 and Utley’s deteriorating health, the Phils got weak fast.  Preseason Rank #4, 2011 Projections:  50/14/55/.280/5, Final Numbers:  54/11/44/.259/14

20. Darwin Barney – I didn’t rank him in the preseason and he shouldn’t even be ranked now.  The Purple Evolutionist’s final numbers show a guy that was helpful for a couple weeks here and there, but if you owned him all year, you lost your league.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  66/2/43/.276/9

In the first installment of the grading process, we’ll look at the gold stars, the players that exceeded expectations.  As always, in the comments, feel free to beat your chest about who you were high on relative to the rest of fantasy baseball players!

Anibal Sanchez – I pegged Sanchez to be a sub-4.00 ERA guy with 170 Ks, and liked him over several guys (Happ, Holland, Niese, Hudson and Lackey) that were going well before him. I projected him to be the 52nd best starting pitcher, but with considerable upside. Well, Sanchez has eclipsed my K projection, has a 3.64 era and is the 49th SP. Not bad, eh?

Ian Kennedy – There isn’t anything more enjoyable than an ex-Yankee doing dirty things for another team…other than maybe a game winning bloop single off the best closer ever in game 7 of the World Series. I ranked Kennedy as the 43rd best starting pitcher, roughly 20 spots higher than most projections. I had him posting an ERA around 3.70 with 175+ Ks and liked him over: Niese, Garcia, Jurrjens, Jorge de la Rosa, Phil Hughes, and Brian Matusz. Well, Kennedy is currently the 10th best pitcher in fantasy with a dazzling 2.99 ERA and 182 Ks. For all kinds of reasons this one makes me happy.

Hunter Pence – I was all over Hunter Pence, touting him as the #11 outfielder going into the year with a .280+ average, 25 HRs and 15-20 SBs. While Pence has the under on homers and SBs, he has batted quite well: .312. Even though my projections were slightly off, he is the 11th best outfielder in the game, 10 spots better than where most had him.

Justin Upton – Obviously JUp’s talent makes it difficult to label him a “sleeper.” However I ranked him about 20 spots higher than consensus. I thought 2009 would be his floor for the next decade and that he would hit .285+ with 25 HRs and 18 steals. Well Upton, who I had at 20, is a top 12 player, and has put up a .294 average with 31 homers and 21 steals. I got him in a lot of leagues and I’m winning a lot of leagues.

JJ Hardy – I said Hardy would push 20 HRs and bat .270. Well, Hardy is pushing 30 HRs and batting .265. Winner, winner, chicken dinner!

Joe Mauer – I ranked Mauer as the top catcher, but had him 2+ rounds after most preseason analysts. I continue to think 2009 was the outlier of his career, given his BABIP and HR/FB rate that season. I said “Mauer is not a .360 hitter with 20 HRs. He is a .330-.340 hitter with 10 – 15 HRs – and that might be generous. Furthermore, it’s incredibly unlikely that he’ll be more than an 85 run scored or producer given he’ll play at least 20 games less than regulars.” I suggested waiting and drafting Mike Napoli over Mauer – Napoli has outpaced Mauer in every 5×5 category.

Trevor Cahill – Calling Cahill a potential bust was like looking outside the window, noticing it’s raining, and saying the ground will likely be wet later. I had him as the 111th pitcher when he was comfortably going among the top 100 players in drafts. Well, Cahill is currently the 936th ranked player. In fact, he has performed so badly, that players who didn’t pitch at all this year are ranked ahead of him. I had Cahill at 130 Ks and a 3.67 ERA. Well, he has 140 Ks and a 4.31 ERA. I wasn’t pessimistic enough!

Mark Teixeira – The preseason Teixeira hate was obviously based on nuances. I ranked him as the 27th best player while most people had him in the top 15 or so. I thought Teixeira would be a .280 hitter with 35 HRs, 100 runs and 120 RBIs. Well, Tex is the 48th ranked hitter, has 87 runs, 37 HRs, 104 RBIs and has continued his downward average trend. He sits at .245 now. I told you not to spend a top 15 pick on him!

Drew Stubbs – I have been a huge fan of Stubbs for an incredibly long time now. I thought a 20-50 season was possible, with the floor being 20-30. Well, Stubbs is the 80th ranked player to date with 15 HRs and 37 steals. Looks like I was a little high on the HRs but otherwise, I’m pretty comfortable calling this a success. Stubbs is going to come in around the 25th best outfielder. I had him 17th; general consensus had him at 42. I’m closer!

Bud Norris – I’ve always liked Bud Norris because he brings it. I had him as the 114th ranked pitcher compared to consensus around 317. I own Norris and clearly undersold him, projecting 180 Ks, a 4.30 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP. Well, he sits at 176 Ks with a tasty 3.77 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. There have been some ups and downs along the way, but no one is arguing with his results to date.

Jhoulys Chacin – At the beginning of the year, I said I wanted Chacin over Derek Holland, Kevin Slowey, Jonathan Niese, Jaime Garcia, Jair Jurrjens and Tim Hudson. I said he was a lock for 160 Ks, a 3.75 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. He has a 3.64 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 142 Ks. I was right to tout him over Holland, Slowey (obviously), Niese, and Garcia, but not the hurlers from Atlanta. I’m very happy with Chacin though!

Seth Smith – I thought Smith would be a .280 hitter with 15-20 homers. In 2011, Smith has batted .282 with 15 HRs – not bad, remember always bet on black…jerseyed Rockies…or something to that effect.

Pedro Alvarez – While Alvarez was a consensus top 100 player and top 7 guy at 3b, I had him as the 21st 3b. Alvarez has been nothing short of a total bust. He is batting well below .200 and has just three HRs to his name. My advocacy for Aramis Ramirez over him makes me smile…and the whole world stops and stares for awhile.

Erick Aybar – I thought Aybar would be a very serviceable SB option, capable of stealing 20+ bags easy. Well, Aybar has batted .281 with 29 steals – not bad for a late round flier.

Danny Espinosa – In a perfect world, Espinosa was a 20+ HR guy with a .250 average and some steals. While the average hasn’t quite been there (he is hitting .236), he does have 21 HRs and 14 SBs. I’d be wary of him in the future – he just can’t seem to grasp what a strike is, but for now, 2011 was pretty nice.

Clay Buchholz – I didn’t predict doom and gloom for Buchholz, but I did say he had no business being in the draft day neighborhood of guys like Greinke, Scherzer, Haren, Billingsley and Marcum. I saw Buchholz landing squarely in the mid-3.00s for ERA with an unimpressive K-rate (maybe 7 per nine).  While he has been injured, Buchholz has an ERA in the mid-3.00 (3.48), and he has 6.53 K/9.

Aaron Harang – I can’t go a year without promoting Harang. Entering 2011, I saw him as a low 4.00 – 4.25 ERA candidate with 150 Ks or so. He is going to fall short in the K category (he has just 124), but his ERA (3.64) has been tasty.

Derek Holland – I called Holland a sneaky strike-out source who could have an ERA under 4.00. Well, he has a 3.92 ERA and 155 Ks. The Ks fall a little short of expectations, but otherwise, he was a damn good value pick!

Brandon McCarthy – I thought McCarthy could easily log 150 innings as the A’s fifth starter and post a sub-4.00 ERA. I didn’t think he’d wow you with the Ks, but as a late choice, he would pay big dividends. Well, McCarthy has a 3.26 ERA, 117 Ks and a 1.14 WHIP – I’d say he was well worth the price of admission.

Jordan Zimmerman – Before the season began, I wrote: I think you can expect a sub-4.00 ERA about 130 Ks and a WHIP in the 1.20 – 1.35 range for Zimmerman. Well Zimmerman has a 3.18 ERA, 124 Ks and a 1.15 WHIP.

Asdrubal Cabrera strains his back, and, no “Asdrubal Strains Back” is not a sequel to a sci-fi porn movie.  At this time of the year, any little thing can knock people for the remainder of the year.  To help you picture what I’m saying, imagine this is April and we’re talking about Morneau.  That’s how easily players can get knocked out.  This injury comes on a day where Asdrubal hit his 24th homer.  Even if Da ‘drubal doesn’t return, he gave you everything he had this year.  Drubal took ’11 to 11.  For next year, I’m pretty sure he’s going to be a tad overrated.  He never hit more than 10 homers in any professional.  He’s been consistent with power this year from month to month, but his HR/FB% soared away above anywhere it had ever been before.  He should still be able to get around 15 homers next year, but if you get a 15/15 season, you’re suddenly wondering if a sure-to-be-underrated Jimmy Rollins isn’t a safer way to go.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Billy Butler – Missed yesterday’s game with the flu.  Someone dump a Gatorade cooler of chicken soup over Butler’s head.

Yunel Escobar – To the DL with an elbow injury.  Bobby Cox just wishes he injured it on Kelly Johnson’s face.

Brett Cecil – 3 IP, 4 ER which was followed by Kyle Drabek’s 2 IP, 6 ER as unrealized potential met yet-to-be-unrealized potential.

Doug Fister – Will be pitching in relief of Scherzer on Wednesday rather than starting as the Tigers get ready for the playoffs.  If Fister is the relief, I don’t even want to know what Scherzer translates to.

Randall Delgado – 5 IP, 0 ER, 7 baserunners, 1 K.  Freakin’ Braves with all the sexy young pitching, huh?  Freakin’ Braves.  I love them.  Beachy, Minor, Delgado, Vizcaino, all of them.  Now I know how Bill James feels when looking at Chris Davis.  Shoot that poisoned arrow through my heart, Braves pitching staff minus Jurrjens, Lowe and anyone else I’m forgetting that I don’t like!

Alex Gonzalez – 2-for-3 with his 15th homer, then left with a foot injury.  Comes a bad time because he was putting the coals in the fire, which isn’t an expression but should be.

Jason Heyward – 1-for-3 with a steal.  5 for his last 10 with a homer while batting in the 8 hole.  Maybe he just needed to be in the 8 hole to be comfortable, or maybe he’s just really too good to be batting in the 8 hole.  Hmm, wonder which one it is.

Pablo Sandoval – Hasn’t been able to bat right-handed because of a shoulder injury and might have offseason surgery to correct the issue.  Or that’s a cover for Lap-Band.

Ben Zobrist – Returns to the lineup on Wednesday after taking time off for the birth of his daughter.  No word on how many positions Mrs. Zobrist utilized for the birth, but – based on her profession – I’m guessing missionary on the conception.

Wade Davis – 4 2/3 IP, 5 ER.  Too bad he doesn’t play for the Jays, he could’ve relieved Drabek with his potentially-yet-to-be-unrealized-potential-that-might-not-be-potential-anymore potential.

Manny Ramirez – It’s being reported he’s going to play in the Dominican Winter League.  He’s hoping to meet up with Miguel Tejada down there to reminisce about the salad days of the 90s.  Maybe even start up a band, Man-Ram and the B-12 with their lead single, “Just Give Me A Shot (Of Your Sweet Sweet Estrogen Therapy).”

Adam Dunn – 2-for-6 as he doubled his season hit total.  No, wait, he doubled twice.  Sorry, honest mistake.

Dylan Axelford – 4 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 11 baserunners, 3 Ks.  He was coming off a decent start vs. the Tigers but you shouldn’t have went anywhere near him for this start.  Though I can understand how you could get seduced by his conglomeration of cool names.

Bud Norris – Left his start with a sore shoulder.  He’s done for the year.  Or as they say in Spanish ‘ano completo.’

Kyle Blanks – Left the game with a right quad strain.  Seventeen men helped him off the field.

Jason Kipnis – 2-for-4 with a steal in the first game, and didn’t start the 2nd game.  He should’ve though because he’s seeing the ball well.  He’s hit in every game he’s started but three since August 1st.  (Sure, he’s missed about 20 games in there, but whatevs.)

Alex Liddi – His 2nd game in a row with a homer.  In broken English, he told reporters, “I drink your pizza!  I drink it up!”

Tom Milone – 6 IP, 0 ER, 4 baserunners, 2 Ks.  Second start solid start for Milone.  He looks to be in the Slowey mold back before Slowey got screws put in his wrist and then put the screws to his fantasy owners.  Once upon a midnight dweawy, Slowey pondewed weak and weawy what could’ve been.  I still wouldn’t trust Milone if he gets one more start, but he’s now on the radar for deeper leagues in Twenty-Twelve.  Or as I’m gonna call it twelve past twenty.

Ross Detwiler – 7 1/3 IP, 0 ER, 4 baserunners, 3 Ks.  Phils are in serious coast mode.

Danny Espinosa – 3-for-4 with his 20th homer.  You’re probably thinking to yourself, I don’t have the profiteroles to go with the cannoli to like Espinosa again next year.  You, sir, don’t know my pastry prowess.

Erik Bedard – 2 2/3 IP, 1 ER (3 unearned).  Of course the Sawx want to get to the playoffs, but has anyone seen their last four starters?  Wakefield, Weiland, Lackey, Bedard… So, they gonna pitch Lester and Beckett on one day rest throughout the playoffs?

Clay Buchholz – Threw a simulated game.  Unfortunately, he gave up 7 runs, but the 1976 Cincinnati Reds are a tough Strat-o-Matic matchup.  Damn you, George Foster!

Kevin Gregg was handed his 6th blown save yesterday.  He’s tizzerrible.  I won’t defend him.  Your honor, no questions at this time.  I just don’t see the Orioles bothering to switch things up.  They’re defeated.  Look into their eyes and you see the shadow of Cal Ripken Jr. weeping with his back to you.  His shoulders go up and down and his sniffling, that’s how you can tell he’s crying.  Boog Powell asked that his BBQ stand at Camden Yards replace the pork and beans with pork and tiny violins.  Maybe Jim Johnson will see saves, but I wouldn’t drink that Kool-Aid.  Maybe Mike Gonzalez finally reverts to the donkeycorn he once was.  Maybe Kevin Gregg gets new athletic eyewear that doesn’t make him look like a dork.  The O’s average about 4 save opportunities per month.  I’d hold one of them and that’s it, preferably Gregg, though that might be the wrong choice of words.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Jordan Walden – Reports are saying he’s tired.  Well, then go take a nap.  Maybe he’s exhausted from carrying around two last names all year.  If the Angels need to work around his fatigue, they’ll probably go with Takahashi or Downs.  Order is a coin flip.  Or as Al Pacino would say, “No, your order is a coin flip!”

Justin Morneau – He’s officially pulling a Kotchman as he suffers from mild concussion symptoms.  It’s as if his brain is a chicken wing joint and it just goes up and down the Scoville scale.  If I were him, I’d dip my head in bleu cheese after batting practice.

Michael Pineda – The Mariners have decided to shut down the rookie after 3 more starts.  I can’t believe they’re giving up their chance at a winning season.  How are they going to win 24 of their next 28 while keeping their 2nd best pitcher on the bench?  Fun aside:  his anagram is Pinhead Malice, which would be an awesome rock group name.

Brett Cecil – 6 IP, 4 ER, 10 baserunners, 4 Ks.  Seems like every year he just sets himself up to be a sleeper the following year.  It’s his special purpose.

Brett Lawrie – 1-for-4 with his 6th homer, a day after stealing two bags.  That sound you hear is fantasy baseballers (<–my mom’s term!) rubbing their hands together in anticipation of drafting Lawrie next year.

Jair Jurrjens – 6 IP, 6 ER, 8 baserunners, 3 Ks.  Wearing a ship captain’s hat, the Fangraphs Database yelled, “Regression, right ahead!”

Wade Miley – 6 IP, 2 ER, 10 baserunners, 3 Ks.  When he was first called up, I said I’d watch him for mixed leagues.  Well, I watched, and, well, whatevs.  I’m not risking my teams precious ratios on him unless I absolutely must gamble.

Stephen Strasburg – Will return next Tuesday, i.e., the day the Nationals become relevant again.  Livan Hernandez, “You know, I resent that.  Also, are you going to finish that lamb chop?”

Danny Espinosa – 1-for-3 with his 19th homer.  Has now hit in 6 straight games, which is a very optimistic way of saying he has one hit in each of his last 6 games.

Mike Morse – 3-for-5, 3 RBIs, 2 runs and his 23rd homer while he bats .318.  His BABIP is pretty high which makes me think next year when you have to draft him before the last rounds, he’s gonna disappoint.  As Shakira sang, BABIPs don’t lie.

Javier Vazquez – 7 IP, 0 ER, 4 baserunners, 6 Ks.  Was it too much to ask for him to do this in April before I dropped him from all my teams? I will now go step on the business end of a rake.

Mike Stanton – 3-for-4 with a slam & legs.  His dad reminds me of Jim Leyland.

Hanley Ramirez – Left his rehab start after his shoulder acted up.  It didn’t have the range for Hamlet.

Mike Trout – 2-for-4, 5 RBIs and two homers as he beat up on the M’s and Mike Carp in what I’ll dub as The Fish Bowl.  Trout has homers now in his last two games.  The only problem is the Angels have played other games in that time while Trout’s sat on the bench.  With only two starts in the last week, it’s hard to fully get behind him.

Henry Sosa – 6 IP, 1 ER, 3 baserunners, 7 Ks.  Did he splash water in his face after each inning a’la Sammy?  Or stick a needle in his ass?  This start comes after a 6 IP, 1 ER last time out.  Next time out could be 4 IP, 5 ER.  I would stay away.  Ixnay on the Enryhay.

Jose Altuve – 2-for-5 with a slam & legs.  He’s also hitting .313 in his 150 ABs so far. With his position eligibility, I’d definitely take the flyer if he’s out there.

Doug Fister – 7 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 4 baserunners, 6 Ks.  Had a perfect game going into the 7th inning.  Jim Joyce, “Don’t look at me!”

Alfonso Soriano – 2-for-5, and now has homers in back-to-back games and 4 homers in the last week.  He’s not remotely exciting but he is currently hitting so there’s that.

Andre Ethier – 3-for-4, 4 RBIs with his 11th homer.  I’d say Colletti lit a fire under him but then he’d complain of a burned bum and wanna sit out on a block of ice.

Raul Ibanez – 3-for-5 with his 17th homer while being a total Gomer to Mayberry.

Ryan Howard – 2-for-5, 3 RBIs and his 28th and 29th homers.  Would love to see a ten homer month of September from Howard.  Cust kayin’.

Tim Stauffer – 1 2/3 IP, 7 ER.  Wait, what?  Oh, God, no!  Wait, no, c’mon.  Really?  *sobs, shakes fist at the sky* Why?!  He’s lucky if all I do is drop him from all my teams.

Trevor Cahill – 5 1/3 IP, 5 ER, 9 baserunners, 2 Ks.  Cahill always seemed to elicit the most feedback in the comments whenever I ragged on him.  “No, Grey, he deserves a parade and you’re gonna make the float out of your criticism!”  That’s except when he’s not pitching well.  Where did all the smarter than thou’s go?  Probably onto fantasy football.

Alejandro De Aza – 1-for-3, 4 RBIs with his 3rd homer.  His bag is, uh, stealing bags.  He’s also hitting over .350 in the last week.  Thankfully he’s yet to show up at a game dressed up like Adam Goldberg.  What was Lady Gaga doing at the VMAs?  Did I suddenly lose touch or was that a bad SNL sketch, like the ones at the end of the show, that just went on too long?  Or was she auditioning for a role in a Cassavetes movie?

Jason Motte – The newly-appointed-maybe closer worked the 8th inning while Salas got the save.  Yup.

Jack Hannahan – 3-for-4 and is now batting over .400 in the last week.  Where does he find the time between this and saving games for the Pirates?

Jeanmar Gomez – 6 IP, 0 ER, 7 baserunners, 4 Ks.  Could be a Cleveland streamer at any moment, i.e., stay away.  BTW, this was overhead in the clubhouse yesterday, “Jeanmar, may I ask if you’re Flemish?”  “Why do you ask?”  “Because saying your name makes me hock up phlegm.”

Matt LaPorta – Was demoted to Triple-A.  That’s right, LaPorta was shown the door.