Grey and Rudy are letting me run a team for Razzball, and I’m totally pumped about it. See, this is my first venture into the realm of expert leagues or writer’s leagues or whatever the hell you wanna call them and the pressure on a rookie like me is enormous. Grey told me I can only cover White Sox prospects if I don’t finish in the top eight. I feel like Andrew Luck or something… probably bigger than that, actually. Anyway. The auction happened a couple Thursdays ago and my strategy was simple: don’t look stupid. I’m not quite sure if I’ve succeeded in that regard. You tell me. Click here to see the complete auction results.
My goal was to stay on budget. I targeted a $180/$80 split between hitting and pitching and I ended up at $183/$77. Not bad. I also wanted to make sure I had some dough left near the end in order to ensure I could buy a few of my favorite sleepers for $2 or $3. This plan backfired. Not that I didn’t have money near the end – I had plenty – but rather, there was literally no one left who I wanted for two bucks. That’s the reason you see purchases like Phil Hughes for $3 and Vance Worley for $2. Spend it if you got it, right? Hell yeah I’ll bid you up on an injured Mike Carp – I still have twelve bucks left to spend on three negative-value players. No point in leaving dollars out there.
Favorite Buys
I was pleased to get Braun at $43, especially when six guys – Tulo ($49), Miggy ($49), Kemp ($46), Bautista ($46), Pujols ($45), Cano ($44) – went for more. I thought I got great value across my entire outfield, actually. Beltran is a health risk, sure, but I’ll take on that risk for $7 – upside is worth twice that, at least. I also love the flexibility Daniel Murphy provides in a deep CI/MI league like this. I’ll take him for four bucks any day.
Least Favorite Buys
Ted Lilly and Mike Carp are on the DL and I spent a combined $7 on the two. The league has five DL slots, so this isn’t a killer, but I’m certainly not thrilled. I knew Lilly was having issues when I bought him, but I was hopeful he wouldn’t end up on the DL. I’m also growing increasingly skeptical on Volquez. He was one of those I’ve-got-a-lot-of-money-left-so-I-might-as-well-pay-for-the-upside guys near the end of the auction.
Most Important Thing To Note
This is just the beginning. Drafting is certainly the most exciting component of the fantasy baseball season, but it’s not the most important. Any winning team I’ve had in the past has been based on in-season management. I enjoy the grind of the baseball season and I’m sure that by mid-season my team will look quite different from how it appears at this moment. Of course, I’ve never been up against such a knowledgeable group of competitors. I’m looking forward to see how my skills stack up. I’ll be sure to keep you posted.
Last year, the Buy/Sell brought you such brilliant ideas as “Grady Sizemore is gonna bounce back big time!” and “I don’t believe a concussion can knock a player out for a full year… Can I get a Morneau?!” Buy/Sell, “You know, I don’t point all of your crappy suggestions… Vernon Wells as a sleeper? 2003 called and said it wants its sleeper back. You’re lucky I even returned this year. A.J. Mass was talking about buying me an acre of land in Kentucky and letting me run around with all of his stolen base draft picks.” So, this is the first Buy/Sell of the season. Every Friday there will be a new one. Buy/Sell, “Not if we continue to get along like this.” Right now Eric Thames is owned in 1.3% of ESPN leagues. I guess I’m a one-point-three percenter because I just picked him up in one of my leagues. Let’s see what we know for sure about Thames: A) He’s the starting left fielder for a team that will score a lot of runs. B) If Lind’s back continues to hurt him (I hope not, but being realistic) and Edwin Encarnacion goes back to being Encrapcion, then Thames could bat as high as cleanup. C) There’s no C. D) He hit 12 homers in 95 games last year. E) He could steal 5 to 7 bases and, if he can steal 5 to 7 bases, he could steal 10 bases. F) See C. G) He’s 25 years old. H) I’m kinda stretching to get to Z, but I don’t think I’ll ever make it. I) He had a great OBP in the minors. J) He does strike out a lot though. Hmm, that’s not a positive. K-P) Power is a lot harder to find on waivers. He’s got it. Q) Bert. R) I ranked Thames 57th for outfielders. Above some schmohawks like Kubel, Revere, Span, Carlos Lee, etc. S) Etc. T) Etc. U-W) Etc. Y) Cause. Z) Whew. Anyway, here’s some more players to buy or sell this week in 2012 fantasy baseball:
BUY
Lorenzo Cain – Let’s see, Carlos Quentin is owned in 38% of ESPN leagues and Cain is owned in 28%, but only 95% of teams have drafted already, but 60% of those public ESPN teams have already abandoned their team and joined a Yahoo league instead because ESPN is a piece of crap roster managing site… I’m sure glad ESPN made it easy to find the Transactions Log for teams. It’s much more important to have Referenda accessible, right? More like Reeferenda, as in what they were smoking when they designed their fantasy site. What does this have to do with Cain…Sugar!? Nothing really, but I’ve talked about him enough, just pick him up.
Jose Tabata – He’s only owned in 11% of leagues and that’s actually dropped in the last week. Did I miss something about him? Why’s he being dropped? For s’s and g’s? In that case, drop Denard Span for s’s and g’s and pick up Tabata.
Zack Cozart – I can’t imagine who’s reading this doesn’t own Cozart, so I’m writing this for everyone who’s not reading. Hey, gooftard, go back to ESPN!
Chris Parmelee – Supposed to be the Twins starting first baseman. This sounds crackers to me. Not sure how Mauer, Doumit and Morneau are all gonna see 1st base and DH time. Could leave Doumit severely crunched for playing time. Outside of AL-Only leagues, I wouldn’t go near Parmelee. There’s not a lot of upside (maybe 15 homers), he’s playing his home games in Hubert H. Homerfree Retrodome and Doumit/Morneau/Mauer will all steal time from him.
Josh Donaldson – The starting 3rd baseman for the Oakland A’s is… Josh Donaldson? Colby’s brother? Is he as bonkers as Russell’s nephew? Yeah, Donaldson has about as much upside as a case of hemorrhoids — hey, at least I get to rub my ass with ointment! But Donaldson has catcher eligibility. Probably the best second catcher in a 2-catcher league you’re gonna find for under five bucks at your auction.
Jeff Samardzija – The only thing holding him back from being successful is his control. So far this spring, he has 16 Ks and one walk. Keith Law commented this is the best he’s ever seen him, then he tweeted some pompous thing about Russian literature and coq au vin. It’s worth an add on Samardzija, but I’m not sure I’d start him his first time out.
Francisco Liriano – Seriously, kill me right now. Ugh. F-Liriano, indeed. But he is owned in less than 50% leagues and when Ricky Nolasco is owned in more, that’s not copacetic.
Tommy Milone – In the same ballpark as Brandon McCarthy (literally!) and Stauffer (not!), shouldn’t be great for Ks, but could provide nice WHIP support like Jiffy Lube.
Lance Lynn – Will fill in for Carpenter in the early part of the season and put a country-western album in August, “Lance Lynn Sings: My WHIP Drives Around No Heartaches.”
Jonathon Niese – Here’s what I said in the top 80 starters for 2012 fantasy baseball, “(Niese) had a K-rate of 7.89 last year and showed in the minors that is about right and could be even a little higher. Also, he had a slightly off BABIP and poor LOB%, so he wasn’t really a near-four and half ERA pitcher, but probably three-quarters of a run better. All these good vibes about Niese make me want to do my Grind workout.” And that’s me quoting me!
Jonathan Broxton – Broxton’s got back, and saves apparently. Yes, you should grab him. SAGNOF!
Henry Rodriguez – Could get saves, will get Ks, could hurt your WHIP. 6 of one, half dozen of another and six of a negative. That’s 6, which is not a prime number. Oh, no!
Brad Lidge – Should be first to get saves in Washington. Not to throw a bucket of cold urine on Storen owners, but I wouldn’t be shocked if Lidge gets more saves than Storen this year.
SELL
Chris Carpenter – I don’t know, I guess I wouldn’t drop him. I guess I’d DL him if I already drafted him against my advice. But I sure as heckfire wouldn’t draft him now, if you haven’t drafted yet.
Kendrys Morales – People are really excited about him right now. I heard the other day he saved a kitten from a tree…By ripping said tree from the ground and gently placing it down next to the kitten’s baby mama. It’s a moving story. As discussed in our fantasy baseball podcast, Morales isn’t going to see enough at-bats in 12 team mixed leagues. I wouldn’t drop Morales out right because of the previously aforementioned enthusiasm that I already mentioned aforementionedly. I would see if I could get something for him in a trade. Maybe a cheap Donkeycorn.
Mark Trumbo – Guys and four girl readers, where is he playing? The Sciosciapath said he’d get 40 games at 3rd. That’s not over the course of 40 games, that’s over the course of the season. Where is he playing the other 120 games? Angels playing with two DHs?
Daniel Murphy – He’s owned in 92% of ESPN leagues. A guy with 12 homer upside?! I feel like Matthew Modine in Short Cuts saying, “He said, ‘You want to have a go at it?’” A guy with 12 homer upside?! Two homers a month?! This is Grey’s brain. This is Grey’s brain baffled.
Drew Storen – Splash! That was the bucket of cold urine. A closer who can’t throw in Spring Training because of arm troubles is, um, trouble. I wouldn’t trade Storen for an opened bag of candy corn from Halloween ’95, but I’d explore options.
We continue our 2012 fantasy baseball rankings with the top 20 2nd basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball. There’s no 2nd baseman in the top 10 for 2012 fantasy baseball. At least by my calculation. Some ‘perts are putting Cano in the top 10, but I see him just outside of the top 10, but then again 2nd base is packed to the rafters with production. It looks deeper than the 1st basemen pool and I’m only being half-facetious. It’s like all 2nd basemen slept at a Holiday Inn last night. There’s 15 guys I would take and if I had a middle infield spot on my roster, I’d definitely look to put a 2nd baseman in there. As with the previous ranking lists, tiers and my projections are noted. Anyway, here’s the top 20 2nd basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball:
4. Dan Uggla – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Utley (or Cuddyer, if he has eligibility). I call this tier, “I see good value. Draft one.” This tier name sounds like I’m a handicapper for horse races. Gambler’s Ruin is great on mud, put all your money on him! Member when Dan Uggla was hitting, like, .180 and it was July and you were like, “Screw this, homie! I’m going gangster on my team and trading Uggla for an Obama Chia.” Then your neighbor saw that getting dropped off at your doorstep, stole it and Uggla went on to hit in like 40 games straight. Nothing ever works out for you, huh? Now I’m Worried you left on the oven after drying your pantyhose. (That Twitter feed is a friend’s. You follow now, thank you.) Uggla wasn’t quite the hitter we saw during his hitting streak (no kidding!) but he isn’t a sub-.200 hitter either. Or is it eyether? Let’s call this whole thing off! Wait, he is a 35 homer hitter. I’ll take that and a box of Ding Dongs! And, no, box of Ding Dongs isn’t a new Timberlake/Samberg song. (Yes, that’s two days and two ding dong jokes. My cup runneth over with ding dong jokes. I am the ding dongiest!) 2012 Projections: 90/35/105/.250/3
5. Howie Kendrick – Sometimes when you go out on a limb, the limb breaks and you fall on your ass. That might happen with Kendrick in 2012, but I’m going all in. From 2010 to 2011 in 18 less games, he went from 10 homers to 18 homers and struck out more. His HR/FB rate was high and he’s injury-prone. It points to flukey. I see a guy with 15 homer power, 15 steal speed, 100 runs and 75 RBIs potential that should hit around .290. It’s okay, but what puts me over on him is he’s in the prime of his career so he should max out his power and look like Pedroia at a cheaper cost. Oh, and one thing that’s been criminally under-reported, the Angels added Pujols. You think someone would’ve talked about that. 2012 Projections: 100/18/70/.290/15
6. Brandon Phillips – Joey Votto’s gonna win the MVP and Brandon Phillips is going to be hoisted onto Jay Bruce’s shoulders next October with the team dedicating their World Series victory to their former pitching coach, Dick Pole. Just so they can see people on Twitter snicker at his mention. That’s how I see things playing out. Phillips won’t be their regular season hero; he’ll be a piece. The wily vet that plays 150 games a year and gets all those counting stats and has some power and speed that people credit more for their clubhouse leadership. Whatever, B.P. is still greasing up some decent stats for his position. 2012 Projections: 90/20/85/.275/17
7. Chase Utley – Nah, he’s not winning the MVP again. Well, I guess anything’s possible if he’s wearing one of Ryan Braun’s Ed Hardy t-shirts, but it seems like the best is behind him like J. Lo. Then throw in you have no idea how long Ryan Howard is going to be out, then throw in Utley’s inability to stay healthy, then throw in his pomade, then throw in a leprechaun’s toenail and the steam that rises from the brew you threw all that in reads, “Utley should be avoided.” Now what if I said I didn’t agree? He’s never had a season of 120+ games where he’s been useless. Granted, getting to 120 games has been an issue, but we knew going into last year he wasn’t going to be right. When he did come back, his speed was fine. Like he was never hurt. His power was off, but so was his homers per fly ball. His average was off, but so was his luck. He’s going to get you 2nd to 3rd round numbers at a much cheaper price than he usually is. BTW, if he’s bad this year, his career’s in trouble. I think he knows that too. 2012 Projections: 80/20/85/.280/15
7 1/4. Michael Young – Only has 14 games at 2nd so he may not have eligibility in all leagues. To see Young’s projections go to the top 20 1st basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball.
8. Ben Zobrist – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Weeks. I call this tier, “Others are taking these guys before me.” I really don’t like Zobrist. His stats are just too flaky for my tastes. One year he hits .297 then .238 then .269. Then he hits 27 homers then 10 then 20. “Hey, fella, how about you just hit 17 homers and stop confusing Grey?!” That’s you in the first row behind the Rays’ dugout because you’re protecting my honor. Thx, btw! (Don’t you love when someone abbreviates thanks as thx? Gee, thanks so much for showing me your appreciation by almost writing a WHOLE SIX LETTER WORD!) I’m ranking Zobrist later than most ‘perts because I don’t want him, but if he fell to me I would take him because he seems like he’s capable of a 15/15 season. Plus or minus 15 homers and steals. Yeah, he’s all over the map. 2012 Projections: 75/17/90/.255/17
9. Rickie Weeks – Stop me if you’ve heard this before– Stop! I haven’t said anything yet, Random Italicized Voice. I’ve heard, “Stop me if you’ve heard this before” before. Here’s the games played for Weeks over his career — 96, 95, 118, 129, 37, 160, 118. Throw out 37 and 160 and on average he plays in 118 games. Or maybe that’s the median. Or the mean. I don’t know. What I do know is he can’t stay healthy. He can repeat his power output from last year and chuck in about 10 steals if he’s healthy, but that “if” is the size of Gilbert Grape’s mom. 2012 Projections: 65/18/50/.260/10
10. Danny Espinosa – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Kelly Johnson. I call this tier, “Shine’s off these guys, but I like them. Even if they might hit .240 collectively.” At 24 years old, Espinosa hit 21 homers and stole 17 bases. That’s the good news. The very good news is he can hit more homers and steal more bases. The so-so news is it might not be much more of either. The bad news is he hit .236. The not good or not bad news is his luck was neutral. The “Is this really even news anymore?” news is Espinosa won’t ever hit for much of an average without luck. The last bit of news is I’m not wearing pants. 2012 Projections: 80/24/90/.240/19
11. Aaron Hill – Here’s what I said towards the end of last year, “Hill looked to be an average issue hitter that could at least give you power. Not this year. His power completely evaporated. Oddly enough, he doubled his line drive rate from 2010 and lowered his K-rate. In short (which I only say after going long), Hill’s season made no sense. Seriously, I can’t make heads or tails of it. Yes, even in hindsight it’s not 20/20. It will take some brass ones to go all in on Hill again next year, but I’m leaning that way right now.” And that’s me quoting me! Now, looking at Hill, I’m still no cyclops with a monocle. What we do know is he hit .315 in Arizona in the 33 games after he was traded. It’s something! I don’t get where those 21 steals came from last year, but if it was some kind of deal with the devil, he forgot to specify to leave his power alone and the devil duped him. You duping devil! 2012 Projections: 70/18/80/.265/15
12. Kelly Johnson – After a trade that sent Hill to the D-Backs and Johnson to the Jays, these two will be forever linked. Or just for right now in the rankings. Either way, let’s pretend we’re in the first semester of our junior year of high school and we’re taking the SATs. The final question will send you to either Brown or nowhere because you refuse to have a safety school. Question: In 2008, Kelly Johnson hit .287. In 2009, he hit .224. In 2010, he hit .284. In 2011, he hit .222. What will he hit in 2012? You know the answer; Brown’s within reach! You say he’ll hit around .280 and… You’re wrong. You then go on a 15-month bender that finds you waiting tables on an over-60 cruise ship and making out with grandmothers. His good/bad alternating averages don’t mean anything, except it does tell us it’s not out of the realm of possibility for Johnson to hit something respectable. 2012 Projections: 80/20/70/.265/14
13. Jason Kipnis – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Ackley. I call this tier, “Sleepers or guys that are overdrafted depending on how smart your leaguemates think they are.” What I mean by the tier name is in leagues with people who prep the day before and just fly by the seat of their pants, this tier probably won’t be that known unless you’re in Cleveland, Seattle or Oakland. In leagues where owners started prepping last November, there’s giant flashing lights on this tier’s players to the point where people will probably reach for them way too early. As for Jason Kipnis, I already went over my Kipnis 2012 fantasy. I wrote it enclosed with a giant heart on a bathroom stall. 2012 Projections: 80/14/60/.255/12
14. Jemile Weeks – Member when 2nd base was a speed position? Was before Bret Boone started frosting his hair. All of these 2nd basemen that are on the scene today probably idolized Boone and his frosted tips. They probably even went as far to emulate him and frosted their hair too. When Jemile frosted his hair, his classmates probably called him Sisqo, which is downright embarrassing, so he decided to rebel against the power 2nd baseman and work on his speed. Or not. Simply a theory. Weeks reminds me a bit of Luis Castillo. That takes some air out of your Jemile Weeks balloon, huh? Hey, Castillo had some good years. 2012 Projections: 90/3/50/.265/30
15. Dustin Ackley – I’m having a real hard time understanding the hype on Ackley. To the point where I’m not drafting him unless he falls pretty far. He’s never hit more than 9 homers at any level of professional ball or stole more than 8 bases. Granted, these were abbreviated seasons, but he’s also going to be playing his home games in a terrible hitting park. I’m gonna let someone else take the chance that he shows his ceiling of 15 homers and 15 steals while expecting he shows something closer to… 2012 Projections: 80/12/55/.265/12
16. Ryan Roberts – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Beckham. I call this tier, “Post-hype and no hype guys. I guess I’ll draft them, but they’d have to be super cheap.” Ryan Roberts reads to me like a Ryan Ludwick/Casey McGehee-type. Never considered much of anything, then they explode on the scene at a late age, then they return to Back To Wherever You Came From-ville (which has higher real estate prices than I’m So Outta Here-ville cause of the influx of has-beens). There should be a glossary term for these type of no hype players that only have one good year. Suggest in the comments. 2012 Projections: 55/13/65/.245/15
17. Neil Walker – This guy isn’t far off from Ryan Roberts. They’re pretty much flip-floppable (Made Up Word of the Day!). But since Roberts just came off a better season, I put them in this order. Could see Walker outperforming him in 2012, but not by much since Walker doesn’t have huge power or speed. Not that Roberts does either… Whatever, I don’t like either, stop arguing with me! 2012 Projections: 70/12/80/.270/7
18. Gordon Beckham – Something that hasn’t been reported (or at least by me) is: Could Ozzie leaving town have a positive impact on some White Sox players? You know, the guys that he used to ball-bust. I wouldn’t be shocked if Beckham comes around as a post-hype sleeper just to prove Ozzie wrong. Am I betting a whole lot that that (stutterer!) is gonna happen? Oh, hells no! Beckham just came off a season where 21% of all of his fly balls were infield pop-ups. That’s terrible. In my opinion (and, really, if you don’t want my opinion, you’re probably reading the wrong site), a hitter can’t make worst contact than an infield pop. By drafting Beckham, you’re basically saying that his last two years were a fluke and he’s going to fix everything. Put the chances of that happening in one hand and the chances of it not happening in the other hand and you have two empty hands. Can’t really weigh chances. Maybe you shouldn’t have quit college to become a scale. 2012 Projections: 55/14/70/.260/5
19. Ryan Raburn – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Roberts. I call this tier, “Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice and shame on you again. I’m good at displacing blame.” Bill James still believes. He has Raburn’s 2012 projections down for 18/4. Last year was the chance for Raburn to become relevant. He’s going to be 31 years old for the majority of the 2012 season. I got better things to do than draft a 31-year-old player who has never shown much of anything. Not to mention, there’s been talk of him blahtooning with Ramon Santiago. That’s nice, have fun! 2012 Projections: 40/12/50/.275/3
20. Brian Roberts – I’m sure Brian Roberts never thought he’d be passed on the rankings by a name that people used to mistakenly call him. Here’s the world’s smallest violin. Here’s me putting the world’s smallest violin on eBay. Here’s someone Buying It Now for one cent and playing it just for Brian Roberts. 2012 Projections: 65/5/35/.260/12
After the top 20 2nd basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball, there’s a lot of names but these stand out, for better or worse:
Daniel Murphy – I left him off the top 20 1st basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball and that top 20 went to, like, 30. Honestly, seriously, Cliff Lee, I can’t imagine drafting Murphy anywhere. If he hits in the beginning of the year, you can pick him off waivers in most leagues as a hot schmotato. 2012 Projections: 75/12/60/.275/5
Sean Rodriguez – I almost feel the same way about Sean-Rod as I do with Raburn. Go reread Raburn’s blurb in the passive voice. The one positive on Sean-Rod that Raburn lacks is age. Sean-Rod will only be 27 this April. If there’s no one left on the board, I’d take the flyer and hope Sean-Rod does something. His K-rate tells me he probably won’t. 2012 Projections: 55/14/65/.230/10
Jose Altuve – I haven’t written a Jose Altuve sleeper post yet, but my Magic Eight Ball says, “There’s a chance you write a sleeper post on Jose Altuve.” When I bought this Magic Eight Ball in 1989, I never understood why it kept saying that. In the minors, Altuve showed he could get to double digit power and low 20′s steal-speed. I’ve seen worse. You feel me?! If you do, could you stop? I hate looking at Astros hitters for anything other than which pitchers to stream against them, but Altuve looks like he could have some sneaky value. Now to figure out why my Magic Eight Ball keeps telling me to write a sleeper post for Ken Griffey Jr. Jr. Jr. 2012 Projections: 80/12/40/.265/24 (<–crazy optimistic, but whatevs)
Top 20 catchers, 1st basemen and 2nd basemen for 2011 are in the books. We continue around the horn (that means we’ll go back for the shortstops; don’t ask, I was getting fancy) bringing us to the top 20 3rd basemen for 2011 fantasy baseball. This year 3rd base gave most of you the gas face. For the most part, you were lucky if you didn’t draft a top ranked one cause most of them bombed. I mean, Emilio Bonifacio is a top five 3rd baseman? That’s an eff in the coolie if I’ve ever heard one. Zimmerman, Longoria, Wright? Made you look smart in opposite world. Also, to recap, this final ranking is from ESPN Player Rater with my comments. The Player Rater allows me to be impartial while looking at how I ranked them in the preseason. Anyway, here’s the top 20 3rd basemen for 2011 fantasy baseball and how they compare to where I originally ranked them:
1. Jose Bautista – A very wise monkey once said, sometimes when you go out on a limb, the branch breaks. To use limb in another sentence: I don’t think it’s much of a limb when I say Bautista was my biggest snafu since I started this blog. I really didn’t believe him at all. The kicker was usually when I Mr. Bungle a player as bad as I did with Bautista, Rudy will correct me, but he punted Bautista too, so I wasn’t even counterbalanced. I can’t say this for sure, but it seems like most ‘perts don’t give a flying elbow if they make right or wrong calls, but I will say Bautista taught me one thing. I don’t like being wrong; it really annoyed me that I mucked him up. Now watch next year when I project him for 40 homers, he’s gonna hit 12 and make me into a Mr. Bungle once again. Preseason Rank #12 (Yes, I was that much a non-believer; I had Pedro Alvarez above him. I will now eat an apple laced with cyanide.), 2011 Projections: 70/25/80/.240/5, Final Numbers: 105/43/103/.302/9
3. Adrian Beltre – I was pretty accurate with my mid-tier 3rd basemen preseason ranking. Beltre, Young, Reynolds, Alvarez, Aramis and McGehee turned out as I thought they would, minus McGehee and Alvarez, obviously. Unfortunately, I ended up with Alvarez and McGehee on more teams than I care to admit. Alvarez, in particular, killed me. This, however, is supposed to be about Beltre. As soon as he signed with the Rangers, any trepidation I had went out the window. Man Standing Outside My Metaphorical Window, “Stopping throwing trepidation on me!” Preseason Rank #7, 2011 Projections: 80/24/95/.285/7, Final Numbers: 82/32/105/.296/1
4. Aramis Ramirez – Here’s one way to look at how pee poor the 3rd basemen were. I pretty much nailed Aramis’s projections with his final numbers and I ranked him 11th and he finished 4th. That, more or less, means seven 3rd basemen bombed. Also, more or less should be one word. Moreorless — doesn’t that look better? You’re welcome, English language; I’m fixing you. Preseason Rank #11, 2011 Projections: 75/25/90/.280, Final Numbers: 80/26/93/.306/1
5. Emilio Bonifacio – There’s nothing I can say that will illustrate how bad the 3rd basemen are that can’t be said by just seeing how high Bonifacio ranked here. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 78/5/36/.296/40
6. Jhonny Peralta – After looking like a lock for 20+ homers and a .270 average back in 2008, he wrestled with major league pitching like I wrestle with his superfluous H. Due to some luck, his average was about 20 points too high, but everything else seems right in line with what he can do. He’s ranked this high because 3rd basemen sucked this year. Have you heard that before? Yeah, thought so. Preseason Ranked #16 for Shortstops, 2011 Projections: 65/17/80/.255, Final Numbers: 68/21/86/.299
7. Pablo Sandoval – In the preseason, I compared him to an in-his-prime Lyle Overbay. Still sounds about right. Before you scoff, scoffer. Lyle Overbay’s best year 82/22/92/.312/5 was better than this year by Sandoval. Preseason Rank #13, 2011 Projections: 70/18/80/.305/3, Final Numbers: 55/23/70/.315/2
10. Evan Longoria – I may still rank Longoria in the 1st round next year. Absolutely nothing changed for him except his luck fell off the map. If it wasn’t for bad luck, he would’ve had no luck at all. His K-rate actually went down, his walk rate went up, his HR/FB% stayed where it should be. I may even pick him to win the MVP next year. I will probably say some variation of the preceding a dozen times this offseason, so if you missed this, don’t worry. And if you read the preceding, forget it so it seems fresh the next twelve times I say it. Preseason Rank #1, 2011 Projections: 105/33/115/.280/10, Final Numbers: 78/31/99/.244/3
11. Edwin Encarnacion – On one hand, I can’t believe Encarnacion ranked this high. On the other hand, it’s more of an indictment of the 3rd basemen because his numbers don’t look that good. On a third lesser known hand that is actually a mitten on the end of a broomstick, he was valuable in the 2nd half of the year. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 70/17/55/.272/8
12. Chipper Jones – He didn’t go unranked in the preseason because I overlooked him. He was coming off a year when he nearly retired from injuries. In fact, I think he did retire then decided to come back, if I remember it correctly. Whatever. Glass Chipper hits when he’s healthy but that ‘when’ is the size of King Kong Bundy. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 56/18/70/.275/2
13. Alex Rodriguez – It totally bit me in the ass saying I wanted a 3rd baseman in the first two rounds of last year’s drafts. 3rd base was my cross to bear, or bare if you’re a nudist. A-Rod, Wright and Zimmerman were off the charts terrible. Sure, A-Rod had the decency to get injured so you could replace him, but who were you replacing him with? Wilson Betemit? David Freese? Bleh and Belch. Preseason Rank #4, 2011 Projections: 90/32/110/.280/7, Final Numbers: 67/16/62/.276/4
14. Kevin Youkilis – It’s easy to say this was an off season for Youuuuuuk, but, at age 32, this could be the beginning of the end. This is the third year in a row that he’s failed to top 136 games and the 2nd year in a row he didn’t hit 20 homers. On a side note, here’s what I said in the preseason about Youk, “Other fantasy baseball ‘perts will say 1st base is one of the deepest positions and you shouldn’t pay for it on draft day. …Do you feel as safe with Youuuuuk as you would with, say, Te(i)x? I wouldn’t. Do you feel as safe with Morneau as Fielder? Do you feel as safe with Dunn as you do with any of the first basemen in the 1st tier? And this is only one tier down.” And that’s me quoting me! Sure, that was about 1st basemen, but it mentioned Youk so I included it here. Sue me for your zero dollar subscription fee. Preseason Rank #8 for 1st basemen, 2011 Projections: 95/27/95/.300/5, Final Numbers: 68/17/80/.258/3
15. David Wright – It wasn’t just that the 3rd basemen were bad this year, but it was worse than that. The good 3rd basemen weren’t just less good so you still got some draft value. Across the board, 3rd basemen killed you. For the first time, I felt like Wright didn’t care either. I get it, you can go 1-for-4 with a run. How about you hit a home freakin’ run?! I think Metco is in his head too. If the Mets move the fences in only one foot, but told him they moved the fences in thirty feet it would have the same impact on his power. Preseason Rank #2, 2011 Projections: 95/30/105/.285/17, Final Numbers: 60/14/61/.254/13
17. Albert Callaspo – Was about as steady a performer as you can find with his 3 homer, 3 steal 1st half and 3 homer, 5 steal 2nd half. This was an illustration of how being steady isn’t always a good thing. Callaspo may have to replace Polanco in the yawnstipating definition. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 54/6/46/.288/8
18. Ryan Zimmerman – If a player’s season can be summed up by the company he’s keeping on the year-end rankings, look at the players around Zimmerman. Callaspo’s above him! Daniel Murphy had a better season than Zimmerman and he stopped playing on August 7th! I’d say 2011 was a step back for Zimmerman, but it was more like a step back, then he fell into a ditch, then someone popped a squat above him and crapped on his head. On a side note, I’m way off on a lot of these 3rd basemen projections, but I guarantee you all ‘perts are off with these guys. No one could’ve told you Wright, Zimmerman, etc would’ve been this bad. I only mention this because I think it’s ridiculous some people charge for their projections. I could pretty much tell you what any player is going to do assuming their healthy, barring a few here and there like Bautista. But guys like Bautista are me going on a limb. I could’ve told you 35 homers and a .280 average like everyone else and been less wrong, but what fun is that? Now someone help me down from my soapbox. Preseason Rank #3, 2011 Projections: 90/32/100/.285/5, Final Numbers: 52/12/49/.289/3
20. Chase Headley – If you ever wondered to yourself whether or not 3rd base was really as bad as it seemed this year, notice Chase Headley making the top 20. Then notice he had 4 home runs on the year. He only hit one homer at home all year. All year! On the positive side, he outperformed Casey McGehee. Recurring Theme, “The third basemen were really bad this year.” Preseason Rank #15, 2011 Projections: 70/15/85/.255/7, Final Numbers: 43/4/44/.289/13
We already went over the top 20 catchers and the top 20 1st basemen for 2011 fantasy baseball. Today, it’s all about the top 20 2nd basemen. The 2nd basemen pool was shallow, and, for the first time in as long as I can remember, the 2nd basemen, shortstops and 3rd basemen were more or less of equal depth. For instance, Darwin Barney was ranked 20th for 2nd basemen and 19th for shortstops, and Daniel Murphy was ranked 15th for 2nd basemen and 16th for 3rd basemen. To recap, this final ranking for last year is from ESPN Player Rater with my comments. The Player Rater allows me to be impartial while looking at how I ranked them in the preseason. Anyway, here’s the top 20 2nd basemen for 2011 fantasy baseball and how they compare to where I originally ranked them:
1. Dustin Pedroia – It didn’t hurt Pedroia that the Sawx were in the hunt for a playoff spot until the very end of September. Lot better than guys who are coasting through the last two weeks. Pedroia actually didn’t exceed expectations by as much as his stats would seem. What he did was get more PAs than were on the last Michael Bay film. When a player exceeds 700 plate appearances, he’s bound to put up some good stats, unless his name is Nick Markakis. Preseason Rank #4, 2011 Projections: 105/15/65/.290/15, Final Numbers: 102/21/91/.307/26
2. Robinson Cano – The curious case of Robinson Cano. In the preseason, I said he was overrated, yet I gave him projections pretty close to where he ended up. So was I right and he was overrated? I’m gonna say no. He wasn’t quite the 1st round pick that some people were making him, but considering how terrible most high picks did and how shallow 2nd base is, Cano provided stability and stats. Preseason Rank #1, 2011 Projections: 100/27/100/.310/3, Final Numbers: 104/28/118/.302/8
3. Ian Kinsler – In the preseason, I ranked Kinsler above where most ‘perts had him. I wanted to believe he could stay healthy one of these years. Bingo bango! Preseason Rank #2, 2011 Projections: 85/22/60/.270/17, Final Numbers: 121/32/77/.255/30
5. Brandon Phillips – He seems like he’s always planking on a 18/14 season give or take a few homers and steals. His average was high for him this year. That was partly due to his line drive rate being up, partly due to his luck. Maybe The Ghost of a Racist Marge Schott was trying to make amends by helping some of his seeing-eye hits get through. Preseason Rank #3, 2011 Projections: 85/20/70/.270/17, Final Numbers: 94/18/82/.300/14
6. Ben Zobrist – He had three big months (April, July and September) and three terrible months. Like off the charts bad (June: zero homers and 2 steals; August: 1 homer, .250; May: 2 homers, 0 steals, .232 and only 5 RBIs in 99 ABs; that’s e to the gregious). I never feel confident enough to draft Zobrist because he still seems like an overachieving utility man to me, but as Zobrist would say, “Don’t call me a utility man and don’t call Creed Christian rock.” Preseason Rank #8, 2011 Projections: 70/15/70/.260/15, Final Numbers: 99/20/91/.269/19
9. Ryan Roberts – First time in a long time that I can remember the first out of nowhere name being this low on a year end list of 2nd basemen. Usually someone will sneak into the top 5 for a shallow position. Last year, Kelly Johnson and Casey McGehee exceeded expectations. The year before Zobrist and Aaron Hill emerged. I’m not sure what this means, but I think it means something. Razzball: Where We Raise Questions We Can’t Answer! Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 86/19/65/.249/18
10. Dan Uggla – When I explained in the preseason why I had Uggla a bit lower than some other ‘perts, here’s what I said, “The reason why he’s ranked below some of the guys above but his projections look as good if not better is because A) Kinsler has the biggest upside. B) Phillips and Pedroia are safer. C) Uggla has the biggest downside in one category, i.e. he could hit .240.” And that’s me quoting me! In the end, he didn’t quite get to .240. Yup. Preseason Rank #5, 2011 Projections: 90/32/100/.265/5, Final Numbers: 88/36/82/.233/1
11. Neil Walker – Couple of things come to mind when I see how close my preseason projections were to the final numbers for Neil Walker. A) I ranked him lower than he ended up, which means 2nd base was even shallower than I thought it would be. B) His numbers were terrible and he still ranked this high, which is more just a continuation of the first point. C) There’s no C. Preseason Rank #15, 2011 Projections: 65/15/75/.260/7, Final Numbers: 76/12/83/.273/9
12. Rickie Weeks – In the preseason, I called Rickie Weeks overrated because of his injury risk. As I said then and will say again, it was the easiest call of the preseason. Preseason Rank #6, 2011 Projections: 85/18/65/.250/14, Final Numbers: 77/20/49/.269/9
13. Danny Espinosa – I pushed Espinosa pretty hard in the preseason because, as always, I ignore average and get all pumped up on power and speed. He succeeded and failed where I thought he would. Preseason Rank #21, 2011 Projections: 60/15/70/.245/17, Final Numbers: 72/21/66/.236/17
14. Jemile Weeks – Will probably be overdrafted next year. I say this because he hasn’t shown any power, he plays in a terrible park with a terrible team and his walk rate (in the majors, at least) was pretty bleh. With all that said (here comes opposite talk!), he had a great season for a midseason call-up. He gave you what you were hoping to get from Chone Figgins (Member him? No, I don’t either.). Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 50/2/36/.303/22
15. Daniel Murphy – How kiddie pool shallow were the 2nd basemen? Murphy ranked this high and he played his last game on August 7th. Three ladies and gentlemen, your 2011 2nd basemen! Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 49/6/49/.320/5
16. Kelly Johnson – He seems to alternate years with a hard-to-digest average. (In 2009, it was .224.) This coincides with a poor BABIP. This year’s BABIP wasn’t as bad as 2009, but his K-rate was terrible, which helped attribute to the poor average. He should be able to bounce back next year, but that’s far from a lock. Preseason Rank #13, 2011 Projections: 80/17/.260/60/12, Final Numbers: 75/21/58/.222/16
17. Aaron Hill – Fitting that Hill and Johnson would be tied together in the year-end rankings, since they were swapped mid-year and had very similar seasons in the general sense. In the specific, their seasons were totally different. Hill looked to be an average issue hitter that could at least give you power. Not this year. His power completely evaporated. Oddly enough, he doubled his line drive rate from 2010 and lowered his K-rate. In short (which I only say after going long), Hill’s season made no sense. Seriously, I can’t make heads or tails of it. Yes, even in hindsight it’s not 20/20. It will take some brass ones to go all in on Hill again next year, but I’m leaning that way right now. Preseason Rank #7, 2011 Projections: 80/25/85/.275/5, Final Numbers: 61/8/61/.246/21
18. Martin Prado – During the preseason, I ranked him extremely low at 17th overall for 2nd basemen. This was such blasphemy, Matthew Berry called me out during one of his chats to say I was stoopid (sic). Turned out I didn’t rank him low enough, with rank being the key word. Preseason Rank #17, 2011 Projections: 85/12/60/.300/5, Final Numbers: 66/13/57/.260/4
19. Chase Utley – Sadly, the Utley we fell in love with in 2005 is no longer with us. This new version is brittle like his pomade after it dries. On a side note, with the loss of Howard for most if not all of 2012 and Utley’s deteriorating health, the Phils got weak fast. Preseason Rank #4, 2011 Projections: 50/14/55/.280/5, Final Numbers: 54/11/44/.259/14
20. Darwin Barney – I didn’t rank him in the preseason and he shouldn’t even be ranked now. The Purple Evolutionist’s final numbers show a guy that was helpful for a couple weeks here and there, but if you owned him all year, you lost your league. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 66/2/43/.276/9
