Fantasy Baseball Advice

Yes, Magic Johnson recovered from AIDS faster than Casey Kotchman beat the kissing disease. Yes, his name sounds like he should be some superhero’s little buddy. No, I don’t have him on any team. So why am I recommending you get him for your fantasy baseball team? Because he knows how to walk. Exciting, right? In six years of the minors his OBP was .407. Last year on the Angels, he had 53 walks against 43 strikeouts. He’s not going to hit 40 home runs. Probably won’t come close to 30 home runs. Back in January, I predicted Casey’s numbers would be 80/22/80/.300 for the season. I’d say those numbers still look about right. Anyway, here’s some more players to buy or sell.

BUY

Robinson Cano - Supposedly the loss of Larry Bowa is what has been bothering him. Yeah, and Oswald acted alone. Bowa’s family doesn’t even miss him that much. Cano will be fine, go get him before he puts together a hot streak.

Carlos Quentin - I’ve told you three times to pick him up, but I don’t feel the love. Go get him then return to tell me about how you dropped Sheffield for him. I’ll smile. What, you don’t want me to smile?

Khalil Greene - He’s a lifetime .250 hitter so I’m not sure what you’re expecting. Oh, home runs! Yeah, he’ll start hitting them. Patience, as Axl Rose would say.

Travis Hafner - I’m a bit concerned about the lack of walks, and even more concerned about the sore shoulder, but I’d still trade for him. He’s had ten home run months before and can do it again.

Paul Konerko - As I recently told you, he was dropped in my ‘pert league. I put in a waiver claim, but came up empty. He was snagged by someone else. If he’s going to reach his career norms, which I think he will, that’s a lot of hitting he’s going to do the rest of the way.

Erick Aybar - You like cheap speed from your middle infielders? Oh, and he has four Ks in 60 at-bats. I likey.

Shane Victorino - Sure the injury is a concern, but he’s still capable of good numbers and he’s about to come back. He bumps Werth to right giving them two outfielders. (Pat the Bat fields as well as Dunn, which is to say they’re DHs in two years.)

Jose Guillen - This is not to say he’s going to have some sort of incredible rest of the season, but he won’t be as bad as he’s been.

Dioner Navarro - Okay, for all of you people still dealing with a hole at catcher, go grab Navarro. His numbers post-All-Star break last year were 30/8/31/.285/2. He’s only 24. Again, those are post-All-Star break numbers.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia - Melhouse was injured yesterday. I’ve picked Salty up in two leagues. He’ll still have Laird in front of him, but if you really need a catcher, stranger things have happened than Salty getting playing time — one stranger thing was him getting shipped to the minors. To give you an idea of who I’m dropping for him, Qualls in a 12 team and Brocail in a fifteen.

Matt Stairs - Rudy once called Stairs a Poor Man’s Giambi. That was true once, but now Giambi’s actually a Poor Man’s Stairs. Weird, right?

Felipe Lopez - Simply because he didn’t break camp with a starting job doesn’t mean he doesn’t have value now. He’ll need to continue to stay hot to stave off Belliard, but he can go it. It’s not like Belliard has that much going for him.

Clint Barmes - Speaking of shortstops who became 2nd basemen who were then written off, he’s not as good as his last week of starts, but batting high in the Rockies order can’t hurt. But, as we know, deer meat can hurt.

SELL

Brandon Phillips - See this morning’s post. Or not. I’ll sleep okay. I wear a sleep mask.

Gary Sheffield - He’s like the baseball equivalent of Rowdy Roddy Piper. You don’t want to like him, but you can’t help yourself. Personally, I love Sheff. He’s a jackass — an egotistical jackass — maniacal even. What’s not to love? Sheffield this year. I know it hurts, but you gotta let him go.

Francisco Liriano - In all but deep leagues and keepers, you’re not selling as much as dropping.

Jorge Cantu - If someone actually believes the resurgence in Florida, I’d sell.

Asdrubal Cabrera - As if having a first name that sounds like a leaky bum isn’t enough, he’s been sitting for Jamey Carroll. Watch to see if Josh Barfield gets the call at 2nd.

Eric Hinske - He goes and gets hot and the club grabs Dan Johnson and Gabe Gross. Here’s mud in your eye, Hinske.

Alfonso Soriano - Not selling sell him for Manny Acosta, but Soriano’s recurring injuries spell trouble. Not to mention, he’s probably older than Tejada.

Jose Lopez - He’s really not that good when he’s playing well, which he is right now.

Kevin Youkilis - He’s not really as good as his April numbers would suggest. If you have a Son of Sam Horn in your league, trade Yooooook.

Daniel Cabrera - Really I could’ve easily put him on the Buy list; that’s the problem with Cabrera. Every time he turns a corner, he turns another corner and he’s right back where he started. If he just turned a corner and stayed there, he’d be incredible.

He almost lost the job last April. If you can find an owner willing to trade you Troy Tulowitzki for Jeter or Torii Hunter or Carlos Guillen, I’d do it.  I think the Polish have a rite of passion that they have to wear socks with their flip-flops for at least ten years of their life. I had a Polish friend growing up that would delivery newspapers in flip-flops and socks. You know what flip-flops and socks does for you? Makes you look ridiculous, so you know when you’re working it’s not a fashion show. It’s work, dammit. Tulowitzki probably hits the treadmill in flip-flops and socks. Cause baseball is work, dammit. And Tulo takes it seriously. I believe Tulo was genuinely upset with his slump. Do I think he’s out of the woods completely? Nah, probably not. But by the end of May, this slump will be a distant memory. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday:

Matt Diaz - (using my big boy voice) Another home run! (using my little boy voice) Against a lefty.

Matt Stairs - Staying with the Matt theme, he can hit 25 home runs.

Alexis Rios - Two days off with the flu. *writing on pink construction paper* Get well soon, Alexis! (Hopefully he wasn’t kissing Casey “I Had the Kissing Disease for Two Years” Kotchman.)

Edwin Encarnacion - Supposedly he’s only owned in 50% of ESPN leagues. So if I can infer something from that, 50% of ESPN’ers draft their team then abandon them. Another reason why you shouldn’t join a random ESPN league. Maybe ESPN shouldn’t be broadcasting these things. Then again they have given Chris Berman a platform for 30 years, so they’ve obviously made some missteps.

Manny Corpas - Looks like Fuentes will be closing a game by this time next week. I don’t think this is the last we’ve seen of Corpas, but he needs to get away from the closer job for a little bit, maybe spend some time with his family, volunteer at the local nursing home and remember why he started playing this game in the first place, or whatever closers do when they lose their job. He’s a righty and will be in the mix again soon. Remember before you drop him, there’s still over five months left of the season.

Alberto Callaspo - Ye of a .348 average in 23 at-bats was about to get the start because of Grudzielanek’s back soreness, but the game was rained out. Maybe Callaspo can get someone to Tony Harding Grud’s knee.

Carlos Quentin - Hit another home run. Sure, it was off a tired Moose, but whatever, that shizz counts too.

Josh Hamilton - Has 21 RBIs. I’m admittedly a fan, but before we start giving each other reach arounds, we have to remember he’s a bit of health risk.

Daniel Cabrera - Pitched a solid game. Most impressive thing, zero walks. Then again, he was facing the Mariners.

Krispie Young - 0-for-5 with four Ks. You have to expect this if you have him on a team.

Troy Glaus - He’s looked surprisingly okay. Still wouldn’t touch him. (BTW, LaRussa has now pinch hit Wainwright in two straight games. Looks like someone’s hitting the hooch again. Take away his keys, Duncan.)

(NOTE FROM GREY: Last week I sent out feelers to the top baseball team blogs to see if they would be generous enough to write a quick preview for their favorite team. So over the course of the next two weeks, mixed in with your daily fantasy info, you will get some of the most astute, in-depth coverage of teams around the major leagues for the upcoming 2008 season from the people that know these teams best. Each post will include a link to their site, please take time to visit these bloggers’ sites, because these posts are truly the tip of the iceberg for their team knowledge. Now enjoy the 2008 Baltimore Orioles preview.)

In the offseason, Orioles’ VP and defacto GM Andy MacPhail finally started a rebuilding process that has been needed for the last decade. The off-season tone was much different. No over the hill stopgap players were signed. Trades were made. No false assurances were made by Peter Angelos that this team can win some games. The 2008 Baltimore Orioles will not be a good team, they could easily lose 100 games. With rebuilding though, a 100 lose team with future potential will be better than a 80 lose team with aging downside vets. Stars Erik Bedard and Miguel Tejada were traded for prospects as the build for the future philosophy has been embraced. Brian Roberts could be traded aaannnnyyyy time now.

Pitching

The trade of Erik Bedard to the Mariners has left a gapping hole at the start of the rotation. There were nasty rumors that Steve Trachsel would get the nod on opening day, but instead Jeremy Guthrie will. Guthrie had a great first half of the 2007 season. Before the All-Star Break he went 4-2 with a 2.74 ERA, after the break he went 3-3 with a 5.03 ERA before getting shut down for the season. This season will show whether Guthrie will be a viable major league pitcher or a flash in the pan. Daniel Cabrera is being looked at as the number two pitcher. For his career, he’s been looked at as a diamond in the rough. He has electric stuff but hasn’t been able to harness it. Last season’s 9-18 debacle pushed me to my limit with Cabrera. Amazing arm, but anything that goes wrong goes to his head and the floodgates open. He had his second consecutive 100 walk season last year with 108. His ERA ballooned to a robust 5.55 for 2007. Cabrera’s last two pitching coaches have been Ray Miller and Leo Mazzone, if new pitching coach Rick Krantiz can turn Cabrera around, a statue of him should be erected at the Yard. Adam Loewen missed most of last season with shoulder surgery. A screw was put in there and hope is he’ll rebound. The spring has not been kind to him with short outings and control issues. I hope he’s getting the rust off, but I worry about him. Steve Trachsel will have the four spot. Trachsel is a stopgap, preventing the O’s to do what they’ve done so much over the years. They rush a young pitching up to big club with not enough time in the minors because the rotation stinks. The young pitcher gets shelled and after a few times out, he’s sent back down and forgotten. Trachsel will eat innings, put us to sleep, be mediocre, and hold a spot until one of the young arms is truly ready to go. Matt Albers and Brian Burres are competing for the five spot. Albers, who came via the Tejada trade to Houston, seems to be the favorite. Burres started some last season but seems, in my opinion, to be better suited as long relief. The rotation doesn’t look pretty now, but with the likes of Chris Tillman, Tony Butler, Hayden Penn, Brandon Erbe, Pedro Beato, the injured Troy Patton, Tim Bascom, Radhames Liz, Garret Olson, and Chorye Spoone in the minors, the rotation can only get better over time, we hope.

Bullpen

The Baltimore bullpen has been brutally bad over the past few seasons. Retreads come and go, quality arms get overworked and rendered useless. The pen this year could be ok. Danys Baez and his horrible contract will be out for the season. Chris Ray will be out for the better part of the season. George Sherrill, acquired in the Bedard deal, will be the closer. Sherrill could be a nice surprise for O’s fans, but the question is ‘how many save opportunites will he get?” Jamie Walker and Chad Bradford were stellar last season. Walker was the most dependable arm in the pen. Bradford was mostly reliable but at times his outings were hellish tightrope acts. Dennis Sarfate, acquired through the Tejada trade, is a power arm added to the pen. The loser of the Burres/Albers battle for the rotation spot will be a long reliever. Randor Bierd, a rule 5er from Detroit, and Greg Acquino seem locked into spots in the pen. Rocky Cherry has had a nice spring, but looks to be the odd man out (to Norfolk) due to option issues with everyone else.

Position Players

The outfield could be one of the better ones in years. Nick Markakis had a great season with 23 HR and 112 RBI and only looks to be getting better. He appears to a cornerstone that the O’s can build around him. He’s been the pretty much the exception to the rule about the O’s farm over the past decade. Playing along side him now is newly acquired CF Adam Jones, the centerpiece of the Bedard trade. Jones has been said to be a Tori Hunter/Mike Cameron blend player. It’s going to be a year or two to see if Jones will be as good or better than those players, but getting him is a big win for the O’s. Luke Scott will be the primary leftfielder. Scott has power, but had limited playing time in Houston. In Baltimore, he should have plenty of time in left and get some hits. Jay Payton, Tike Redman, Jay Gibbons, and Scott Moore will be vying for reserve time in the OF. Moore is going to be more of a super utility player. Payton’s a declining player (how can you decline if you’ve never really been good?) with a bad contract who the O’s will trade at their first chance. Gibbons was a horrible contract (If we’re lucky, the FO will release him and just eat the money left on the contract. I have nothing further about Gibbons to say that doesn’t involved expletives) from the previous regimes that the O’s would love to shed, but no other team is that foolish. Redman, if Payton gets traded, would be the 4th outfielder.

In the infield, Kevin Millar will anchor first base and sadly be the clean-up hitter. Millar can work a count and get some hits, but he’s in the twilight of his career. A player like him is good to have on a rebuilding team to be a rah-rah team guy, but to have him hitting clean-up shows you the state of the O’s. Brian Roberts, at the moment, is still an Oriole. The trade with the Chicago Cubs could happen tomorrow or never. If he stays with the O’s, they have one of the best speed guy and lead-off hitters in the game. Roberts can get on base and change game with his steals and speed. Smart money is that he’ll start the season as an O but will be traded at some point in the season. Melvin Mora will still be at third, with Scott Moore (hopefully) taking over at some point. Mora’s in the downside of his career and was unwisely given a nice contract mere moments before his decline. Scott Moore came from the Cubs and has had a nice spring and will hopefully make the team and getting playing time. Moore has a nice pop to his bat and could pan out to be a good third baseman. Luis Hernandez and Brandon Fahey are vying for the shortstop job. Both of these guys are the classic all glove and no hit guys, that’s the best that I can say about them. Aubrey Huff will see time at DH and 1st this season. He’ll go through his yearly slow start (1st half of the season) before hitting his midseason stride (hit for the cycle one day, strikeout four times the next game).

Ramon Hernandez is back at catcher. Ramon had an bad year last season and had a recurring oblique injury. Refreshed and in camp in better shape, he could return to form. This is probably his last season in Baltimore with Matt Wieters being the catcher of the future. A trade to Mets makes sense. Guillermo Quiroz appears to have won the backup catcher job with a solid spring.

Vets like Mora, Payton, Huff, Millar, and any other player over 30 could and probably will be dealt during the season to get more prospects and to open up positions for young players to man. I’ll cheer the day when the last of the Flannagan/Duquette regime’s troop of 1st base/DH only players are gone.

Fantasy Players must haves
Not really many on the O’s but here’s a few that are good ones
Nick Markakis- He had 23 HR and 112 RBI. He’s only getting better and you should expect something along the lines of this this season.

George Sherrill- Hasn’t closed in the majors before, but will have the job with the O’s this season. The only worry is lack of save chances.

Luke Scott- If you’re looking for a 4th outfielder to use, Scott could be a nice pickup. Scott has shown that he can hit in his limited time in Houston. In Camden, he could have some get production as long as deadweight like Payton and Gibbons don’t steal his playing time.

Brian Roberts- He doubtfully will be an Oriole all season, but he still is now. Roberts is one of the best leadoff hitters in the game. He can get on base and steal bases. Roberts one of my favorites, I’ve got his jersey. Something tells me I need to go ahead and get that Nick Markakis jersey.

Jamie Walker and Chad Bradford could have a little fantasy value too. I like Walker better than Bradford, but both are decent.

So it’s probably going to be a long season. I don’t think we’ll lose 100 games, but I still have a little optimism left in me. The O’s could be slightly better than we think (or rather less worse) but it depends on the starting pitching. If the pitching fares poorly, well…I’ve been through ten losing seasons, an 11th wouldn’t kill me.

Ben runs Oriole Central.

One of the greater joys of fantasy baseball is the satisfaction of properly valuing a player – e.g., selecting the right 1st round pick, getting a ‘steal’ in a later round, avoiding a guy who you know is going to have a bad year, trading a guy right before he tanks, etc. But while there are rewards in avoiding or trading overvalued players, the greater rewards are in retaining and acquiring the most successful players.This reward system is one-sided. In investing, you can short-sell stocks that you know are going to tank and be rewarded. But if you KNEW Jason Bay was going to suck in 2007, all you could do was avoid him. What kind of reward is that?

This inequity is at the heart of a new fantasy baseball game that we at this FLB Blog are christening as Razzball. Razz is a card game similar to Texas Hold-em where the object is to have the worst hand possible. The objective of Razzball is to compile the worst fantasy baseball team possible.

HOW DOES IT WORK?
The rosters are the same as currently found in standard MLB leagues: 13 hitters (C / 1B / 2B / SS / 3B / 5 OF / Corner IF / Middle IF / UTIL) and 9 pitchers.

The stats are a bit different as there is a need to both reward below-average performance while making sure this isn’t achieved by avoiding active players. Since the aim is to be able to use a Yahoo or Sportsline free league for Razzball, we stuck with statistics that are generally available in those services:

Hitters:
AB (High = 10 points)
R (Low)
HR (Low)
RBI (Low)
K (High)
AVG (Low)

Minimum – 5200 team ABs (avg of 400 per position). Any ABs short will receive the pro-rated stats of 550 ABs at .320 AVG / 120 R / 35 HR / 120 RBI / 50 K

Pitchers:
IP (High = 10 points)
L (High)
HR allowed (High)
ERA (High)
WHIP (High)
K (Low)

Maximum – 180 starts

For hitters, R / HR / RBI / AVG are the core offensive Razzball stats. The lowest in each category gets 10 points, highest 1 point.

Since this could conceivably be done via inactive players, several countermeasures are in place. ABs rewards teams that use active players (Outs would be better but it is an unavailable stat in standard online leagues). Strikeouts also serve as a reward for keeping an active roster while reflecting the least valuable action a hitter can contribute (Ok, GIDP is worse but roll w/ it). The minimum of 5200 ABs penalizes any team that falls short of a 400 AB per position minimum.

One exception that was made vs. traditional fantasy hitting stats was the removal of SB. This has always been an admittedly overrated stat in FLB (vis-à-vis actual value). We considered using Caught Stealing but it’s rather unpredictable and low in frequency. In addition, removing SB makes it easier to draft OFs as speed-only guys like Juan Pierre and Willy Taveras become attractive high AB, low HR/RBI guys.

For pitchers, L / ERA / WHIP / K serve as the core pitching Razzball stats. Losses makes for a great replacement over wins as it rewards playing bad active pitchers. ERA/WHIP/K are similar to R/HR/RBI/AVG in that teams are rewarded for poorest performance (highest for ERA and WHIP, lowest for K’s). IP is added as a countermeasure and HR serves as a mirror to offensive Ks (the least valuable action a pitcher can contribute). The maximum of 180 starts is consistent with many leagues and protects against an extreme amount of pitcher flighting.

The exception vs. traditional pitching stats is the absence of Saves. We considered blown saves but this is somewhat unpredictable and VERY low in frequency. So it’s likely that many closers will not be drafted – rather, there will be the greatest demand for middle relievers that pitch a lot of poor quality innings with, hopefully, some of those games on the line (to accrue Losses). We also considered using BB instead of low Ks but felt that was already factored into WHIP.

We’re still undecided on whether roster changes can be made on a daily or weekly basis but we’re leaning towards weekly.

STRATEGY 101
Since Razzball is such a new concept, it’s really a blank slate for strategy. No collective wisdom over years and years of play and analysis. No publications or ‘experts’ to rely on. Should make for an exciting inaugural season.

As with regular FLB, strategy is dictated by the depth in performance at each position. Since MLB leagues tend to use about half the starting player pool, the depth in positions is nearly inverse so that the lowest valuable contributor (or Best Available Option as we’ve opined here and here) is very similar in both leagues – think Luis Gonzalez for OF (.277 / 74 R / 16 HR / 68 RBI).

Also similar to regular FLB, predicting pitching proves to be more unpredictable than hitting. In fact, the most valuable Razzball starter of 2007 was drafted in most regular leagues (Scott Olsen).

This points to an additional factor that makes for a very exciting variable – the chances that a below average performing player remains in the lineup / staff. The worst enemies are a player’s low upside, antsy coaches, contending teams, and unforgiving local media. Your best friends? A player’s high upside, smug coaches, floundering teams, and ineffectual local media.

Since there are only so many poor performing players out there, it will be important to retain them on your roster. So on the hitter side, we expect a similar amount of player activity as seen in FLB – there’s no way you’re dropping a Cristian Guzman but you’re going to rotate through 5th OFs in hopes of finding a guy on a cold streak or stumbling on a big find like a Norris Hopper (Reds OF from last year that managed 0 HR and 14 RBIs in 307 ABs!).

For pitching, it’ll be key to retain dud starters like Kip Wells and awful relief pitchers but we do foresee more turnover in pitchers than FLB since starting pitching reinforcements are generally worse than the pitching they replaced.

2007 POSTVIEW – WHO WERE THE TOP 10 BEST (AKA WORST) HITTERS AND PITCHERS?

Best 2007 Razzball Pitchers:
1. Scott Olsen (FLA) - 176.2 IP / 15 L / 29 HR / 5.81 ERA / 1.77 WHIP / 133 K
2. Livan Hernandez (ARI) – 204.1 IP / 11 L / 34 HR / 4.93 ERA / 1.60 WHIP / 90 K
3. Woody Williams (HOU) – 188 IP / 15 L / 35 HR / 5.27 ERA / 1.43 WHIP / 101 K
4. Daniel Cabrera (BAL) – 204.1 / 18 L / 25 HR / 5.55 ERA / 1.54 WHIP / 166 K
5. Dontrelle Willis (FLA) – 205.1 / 15 L / 29 HR / 5.17 ERA / 1.60 WHIP / 146 K
6. Jose Contreras (CHI-A) – 189 IP / 17 L / 21 HR / 5.57 ERA / 1.56 WHIP / 113 K
7. Adam Eaton (PHI) – 161.2 IP / 10 L / 30 HR / 6.29 ERA / 1.63 WHIP / 97 K
8. Edwin Jackson (TB) – 161 IP / 15 L / 19 HR / 5.76 ERA / 1.76 WHIP / 128 K
9. Kip Wells (STL) – 162.2 IP / 17 L / 19 HR / 5.70 ERA / 1.63 WHIP / 122 K
10. Kyle Davies (KC) – 136 IP / 15 L / 22 HR / 6.09 ERA / 1.65 WHIP / 99 K

Honorable Mention to Mike Maroth who had a fantastic 6.89 ERA / 1.88 WHIP / 51 Ks but his measly 7 Ls and 116 IP keeps him out of the top 10.

Best 2007 Razz Hitters:
1. Nick Punto (MIN – 3B) – 472 AB / 53 R / 1 HR / 25 RBI / 90 K / .210 AVG
2. Felipe Lopez (WAS – 2B/SS) – 603 AB / 70 R / 9 HR / 50 RBI / 109 K / .245 AVG
3. Alex Gordon (KC – 3B) – 543 AB / 60 R / 15 HR / 60 RBI / 137 K / .247 AVG
4. Brandon Inge (DET – 3B) – 508 AB / 64 R / 14 HR / 71 RBI / 150 K / .236 AVG
5. Nook Logan (WAS - OF) – 325 AB / 39 R / 0 HR / 21 RBI / 86 K / .265 AVG
6. Marcus Giles (SD – 2B) – 420 AB / 52 R / 4 HR / 39 RBI / 82 K / .229 AVG
7. Stephen Drew (ARI - SS) – 543 AB / 60 R / 12 HR / 60 RBI / 100 K / .238 AVG
8. Gerald Laird (TEX - C) – 407 AB / 48 R / 9 HR / 47 RBI / 103 K / .224 AVG
9. Brad Ausmus (HOU - C) – 349 AB / 38 R / 3 HR / 25 RBI / 103 K / .235 AVG
10. Craig Biggio (HOU – 2B) – 517 AB / 68 R / 10 HR / 50 RBI / 112 K / .251 AVG

Honorable Mention to Lyle Overbay who was able to out-Razz Richie Sexson due to 425 ABs that managed 49 R / 10 HR / 44 RBI / 100 K / .240 AVG in the usually productive 1B slot. He was just good enough to stay out of the top 10.

WHAT’S NEXT?
This won’t be the first article on Razzball. Follow-ups will include a 2007 Razzball Player Rater, an evolving Razzball Glossary, and details on our inaugural 10 team league.

We will be reserving at least 5 slots for fellow fantasy baseball bloggers/columnists.
Any open slots will be filled by submissions on this site. To get your name in early, comment on this article. The more you comment on the site, the more you’ll be considered (of course, if you’re a dumbass on the boards that won’t help your cause…even though that might seem to be a positive trait for Razzball). Also, Razzball questions can be sent directly to info@razzball.com.