Fantasy Baseball Advice

So it comes to this, the final countdown.  Cue Lou Gramm and let that blaze through your head as you listen to that classic from Foreigner.  If you read this in tune with that song, it’s almost like the Dark Side of the Moon/Wizard of Oz experience.  You have to read fast though.   I can’t believe the season is basically over as it seemed to fly by and I guess I missed all the fun.  This week is extended by 3 additional days so basically every pitcher you can think of goes twice during championship week. So there are tons of options and I just pulled my top 15 favorites based on pitching match-up favorability and my general guess work.  So as you read this, pitchers are in order of how they will appear in their first start of the week. Starting with 9/19. Check back mid-week as we will add a contribution for the last couple of games.  Good luck until Thursday.  Questions, comments or rants are greatly accepted.  (Pitchers and matchups will almost certainly occur this week due to teams clinching and whatnot.)

Kevin Millwood (SD vs. Luebke, @Hou vs. Norris) Was the starting pitching version of a pogo stick this year.  Found decent starts finally with his 4th team.  Last 5 starts ERA under 3.20.  Team scores runs, prolly better to score chicks, just my humble opine.

Mike Minor (@Fla vs. Nolasco, @Was vs. Wang) I was trying to get him to jump out of the birthday cake for Grey.  Unfortunately, he has a scheduling conflict.  Jim J. Bullock it is.   Sorry, homey.  Previous 3 starts 3.24 ERA, with some decent strikeout potential.

Jeremy Guthrie (@Bos vs. Lackey, @Det vs. Verlander) Last 5 starts, 2-1 with a 2.53 ERA and 30 K’s.  If his peak value wasn’t before the season started, it may be now when you need him the most. Maybe he was all on board the “Suck for Luck” campaign and forgot that he only plays football.

Jason Vargas (Min vs. Hendriks, Oak vs. McCarthy) Needs the Fister treatment.  No, not that kind of stuff.  Sicko.  A change of scenery makes his numbers look prettier.   Gets beat up once and awhile, but are we scared of the Twins and A’s offensive juggernauts?

Randy Wells (Mil vs. Marcum, @SD vs. Latos) Last 10 starts 6-1 with a 3.15 ERA only downfall is just 38 K’s.  Has pitched a lot better than a lot of sexier names that you prolly already roster over the last 30 days.  Just the facts.  And then Thursday happened and made what I just said irrelevant.

Bud Norris (@Cin vs. Bailey, Col vs. Millwood) I know Morrow gets more love but is 2 more K/9 more important than an uptick of 1.6 in ERA?  Not so much that it would lead to an almost double ownership.  I guess if I played for a loser I would go unnoticed too.

Chris Narveson (@CHC vs. Garza, Pit vs. Ohlendorf)  Starting, bullpen, back to starting.  Brewers will prolly have clinched by his first start.  When you dig deep, is it really horrible to have a pitcher from a winning team as your option?

Dana Eveland (SF vs. Vogelsong, @Ari vs. Hudson)  I could be wrong, but didn’t he star as MacGyver’s bald sidekick?  Getting by on looks, charm and a spoonful of who the heck is this guy? Tiny numbers in first 2 starts, you can roll the dice when I’m done playing click-clack.

Drew Pomeranz (@Hou vs. Myers,  @SF vs. Bumgarner) Features a plus fastball and curve, changeup needs work.  Reminds me a lot of Joe Saunders.  2 decent matchups as he fights for a rotation spot and fantasy formidability next year.

Henderson Alvarez (Ana vs. Santana, @CHW vs. Buehrle) A 3 ERA and a small WHIP from a groundball pitcher is almost as good as Reading Rainbow being back on the air.  Oh, it is.  Righteous.  It’s in a book, so take a look. Sorry got caught up in LeVar Burton’s goodness.

Philip Humber (Cle vs. Gomez, Tor vs. McGowan) Last 2 starts since coming off DL have been better than I expected.  That much needed time off looks like it refueled him for the faux baseball playoffs.

Jake Westbrook (NYM vs. Capuano, @Hou vs. Sosa)  Consistently is a 6 inning 3 ER pitcher, to hope for anything better would be like leaving Santa vegetables instead of cookies and then wonder why all your presents are broken.

Eric Surkamp (@Ari vs. Collmenter, Col vs. White) Man, that Barry Zito contract looks awesome right now.  Low K potential and lack of team run support hurts him some.  Any time I don’t have support I get all saggy, that ad brought to you by Spanx.

Felipe Paulino (@CHW vs. Stewart,  @Min vs. Diamond) We come for the Ks, that is all.  Now dance, monkey, as I turn this organ grinder.  In retrospect, it would be awesome if that monkey could do The Dougie.

Brett Myers (Col vs. Pomeranz, STL vs. Carpenter) Really useful right now, until he starts dating your sister and you’re like, “Wait a second,  I don’t want you dating my sister.”  1 ER in each of his last 4 appearances.  Would have liked to see him dealt to a contender, but there’s always next year.

Wouldn’t say this is crunch time as much as this is “Your nuts are in a cracker and the season’s closing in and squeezing tight so you better just throw any pitchers that are available because you need stats — stat!” time.  The line for last week was 80 IP, 4.05 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 50 Ks and 3 wins.  Not a great line, but if you throw out Lannan and Francis because you had better sense than me and didn’t start them.  The line comes down to 3.42 ERA and 1.37 WHIP.  To recap, these aren’t guys I’d drop anyone worthwhile to get, these starters are meant for streaming purposes and all of their ownership in ESPN is under 50%.  These streamers are in no particular order.  Also, in the final month of the season, managers juggle their lineups more, so there’s no guarantee all of these guys are listed on the right day.  Anyway, here’s some borderline starters for this week in fantasy baseball:

Friday, September 16th

Philip Humber – It’s really slim pickins on Friday for under 50% owned starters.  I’m not a huge fan of Humber but compared to some of the other schmohawks, well, here he is.

Jeff Locke – On Friday, Locke goes against the Smoke Monster in chess and the Dodgers’ weak offense.

Saturday, September 17th

Jeanmar Gomez – Gets the Twins, has only given up 3 earned in the last 17 and a third innings and when you say his first name it causes phlegm.

Rick Porcello – Don’t trust Porcello at all but he goes to a -co stadium and faces the A’s.

Chris Volstad – In his last three starts, 17 1/3 IP and 3.12 ERA.  Here he takes on the Nats and Strasburg’s three to five innings of work.

Sunday, September 18th

Joe Saunders – In 22 innings vs. the Padres, he has a 2.05 ERA and a .190 BAA.  Kill me now for recommending Saunders.

Matt Harrison – 1.84 ERA vs. the Mariners, though I’m not sure there’s any pitchers with a 2+ ERA vs. the M’s.  Maybe Liriano or Danks.  Schmohawks.

Brad Lincoln – Gave a pretty yawnstipating start last time out, but here I am going back to the well like Baby Jessica.

Monday, September 19th

David Huff – I never said the names on this list were gonna be pretty.  There’s only a few teams I could see starting Huff against:  the Mariners and the Mariners minor league affiliates.

Mike Minor – He just dismantled the Marlins (with a four walk performance in 5 2/3 innings — technicalities!).

Tuesday, September 20th

Jason Vargas – Choices aren’t Grade A when I’m taking on a Mariners starter, but it was between him and To Be Announced.  And I don’t like To Be Announced’s matchup.

Edwin Jackson – Highest compliment I can give any guys on this list is when I think one should be owned in more than 50% of leagues.  Jackson’s one of those guys.

Derek Holland – Last three starts (when this was written), 1.77 ERA and 21 Ks in 20 1/3 IP.

Wednesday, September 21st

Dana Eveland – He/she gets the Giants in Chavez Ravine.  Giants have a .236 average vs. lefties, which is only slightly worse than what they’re batting against righties.  As for the lack of other options today, they were kinda Plouffey.  I almost put down Brett Cecil, but he’s all over the map and not in the good traveling circus kind of way.

It’s always good to look at spring training numbers to give you an idea what you can expect from guys during the season.  They’re facing the top pitchers who are all displaying their best stuff.  No one needs time to get warmed up.  No one’s trying new pitches or getting a feel for the ball.  They are at the height of their game in March.  In fact, I think someone should propose to Bud that the World Series could easily be played in March.  Yes, The March Classic.  I like how that sounds.  Since these spring training numbers mean so much, I decided to look at some players in March:

Sean Rodriguez – Has 6 homers while batting .460.  Forget Sean-Rod, how about Wow-Rod?!  Am I right or am I right-right?!

Dana Eveland – Absolutely sparkling so far with a 1.23 ERA.  He’s barely beating hotshot, upstart… Really Madlibs in any enthusiastic adjective for Rodrigo Lopez with his 1.64 ERA.

Justin Masterson – 29 Ks to 6 BBs.  Thank you, Lord, the walks have finally found their way out of his dazzling repertoire.

Corey Hart – On the sad emoticon front, Hart is hitting .127 in the spring.

These stats are from 2010 Spring Training.  That’s right.  You fell for the oldest trick in the book, mon.  These are not from 2011.  A real beauty pageant of names, right?  Seriously, please stop looking at spring stats.  Dana Eveland went on to post a 6.79 ERA in only 54 and a 1/3 IP, Rodrigo Lopez had a 5.00 ERA in 200 IP and Justin Masterson had no luck with walks and threw a 4.70 ERA.  Corey Hart had his best season after an awful 2010 Spring Training while Sean Rodriguez had only 9 homers over the course of the whole season.  Spring stats mean nothing.  You should only be looking at who’s healthy, who’s winning position battles and who’s winning rotation spots.  The rest is meaningless.

Dan Haren got the win yesterday, but his line was 5 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 11 baserunners and 5 Ks.  Did he see his shadow in Spring Training and now think spring w0n’t start until August?  Someone inform this young brother it’s the pre-All-Star Break.  Ergo, therefore, vise a vie, he’s supposed to be pitching well now.  He only has about a month before he turns into summer squash.  Right?  Well, what if he pitches well in the 2nd half this year?  I know, it’s crazy talk from a guy that pees into milk bottles.  So far this year, he has his best K-rate of his career.  He has the 8th best K-rate in the major leagues.  He also has the 2nd best K/BB in all of baseball.  Just behind Roy Halladay.  At his current rate, Haren would have his worst ERA since his first half year.  That shizz doesn’t add up.  Striking out people, not walking people and a terrible ERA?  I know the 2nd half Boogie Monster scares Haren pretty good, but I think he might be able to fight the 2nd half terrors this year if his luck just evens out a little bit.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Dana Eveland – 5 IP, 3 ER, 8 baserunners, 0 Ks.  Has a K:BB ratio of 21:29, which looks like a Roland Emmerich film.  Both are terrible, by the way.

Carlos Silva – 7 IP, 1 ER, 5 baserunners, 5 Ks and his 8th win.  Sometimes you don’t question how someone rolls 8 points in a row at a craps table.  You just put your money down and hope the dice stay hot.

Koyie Hill – Got the day off to let the former NL Rookie of the Year with a .404 OBP play a game.  How generous of Piniella to put aside his plan to kick start the offense with Koyie Hill.  Soto went 2-for-4 and he’s hitting .262 with 5 homers on the year.  His counting stats are an abomination, but 15 homers and a .270 average seems doable/usable.  However, I do know how frustrating it is when your catcher sits a few games a week, especially when they’re sitting for Koyie Hill.

Mike Fontenot – Got the day off after going 1 for his last 12, giving way to Theriot for a 2-for-3, 4 Runs, 2 steal day.  Again, Piniella put aside his offensive concerns and went with actual offense.

Starlin Castro – 0-for-3 and hitting .118 in the last week.  That rookie nookie got old pretty fast.  That was why after I told everyone to grab him, I then told everyone to sell him.  (Even if my example was to sell him for Asdrubal, who was injured about three days later.  Stupid crystal ball!)

Bryce Harper – Nats selected him first overall and he’s sure to make about a zillion dollars.  Yeah, but I have a college degree!  I wonder if Bryce Howard will rename herself Bryce Harper Howard if he visits her.

Daisuke Matuszaka – 8 IP, 0 ER, 6 baserunners, 5 Ks and one more completely unpredictable start.

Chone Figgins – 3-for-4 and a steal as he was moved down to the nine hole.  That’ll help him breakout out of his season-long slump!… If he were still in that slump.  He had just raised his batting average 30 points in the ten games prior to getting moved down the order.  Is Don Wakamatsu the guy from Memento?  Someone please read the lineup card off his back.

Michael Saunders – 1-for-4 with a home run.  Getting playing time now that Mike Sweeney is on the DL.  He’s a poor man’s Big FraGu and a less angry Militant Bradley.

Cliff Lee – 9 IP, 2 ER, 7 baserunners, 7 Ks as The Adverb modified the Rangers.

Alfredo Simon – Sticking with the adverb theme presently, Simon will return shortly and be the closer again immediately.

Wade LeBlanc – 7 IP, 0 ER, 5 baserunners, 2 Ks.  Look at LeBlanc getting it done away from Petco.  Now if he can only get his post-Friends career off the ground.

Adrian Gonzalez – 2 homers and his third in the last two games.  Just four days ago, I said, “Would love to see this be the start of one of (Adrian’s) crazy homer binge streaks.”  Okay, let’s try this again.  Would love to see Adrian Gonzalez get traded to the Phillies and become a catcher.  Thank you!

Johnny Cueto – 6 IP, 4 ER, 11 baserunners, 5 Ks.  I don’t want to make excuses for him, but he threw a wild pitch to get two runners into scoring position then let the pitcher hurt him with a single to score two runs.  It wasn’t like he was getting pounded.  Okay, I did want to make excuses.

Jay Bruce – 3-for-4 and his 8th homer as he bats .276 with 5 steals.  Member when he was called up and it was the same as the Stanton madness?  Two years later still waiting for the explosion.  Yesterday, Karabell made his case for Stanton.  He ranked ten outfielders he liked more and ten outfielders he liked less than Stanton:  Bautista, Byrd, Cuddyer, Drew, Hawpe, Ibanez, Damon, The Big FraGu, Soriano, Markakis, Swisher, Jose Guillen, Carlos Lee and Willingham, to name a few.  I purposely mixed up which ones he liked more and which ones he liked less to point out how arbitrary the names are.  Damon’s on the list of names he likes more or less?  Think what you would say, then go with the opposite.  Carlos Lee?  I’m not sure if he was liked more or less and I just closed the window the post was on and don’t feel like going back to it.  You need The ESPN Hindsighter to read the whole thing, but you ain’t missing anything anyway.  For what it’s Wuertz, I’ll go over Strasburg and Stanton in this afternoon’s post in anticipation of Big Baby Jesus and Inspectah Upper-Decker.

Ryan Ludwick - 2-for-4, 2 homers.  Alternating productive years, huh?  Who are you, Bret Saberhagen?

Carlos Monasterios – 6 IP, 3 ER, 7 baserunners, 0 Ks.  Did Monasterios steal Ely’s lucky monkey?  Eh, the Dodgers jumped out to an early lead and CM stayed away from dropping a BM.  Still not really worth anything outside of NL-Only leagues.

Blake DeWitt – 2-for-3, 5 RBIs and his first home run.  He dedicated his first four-bagger to his one-bagger mom, Joyce.

I can’t believe it is week 6 already (though I should have known), most leagues are starting to make crazy trades, build for the future or are just not interested in their teams. It’s been a crazy last few days with some really horrible trades in some of my leagues. It is like trading a broken bicycle for a car, but a league of your peers gets the final say.  Anywho, week 6 brings us either studs or duds, guys you should know and should be owned or guys you should gamble on cause you’re playing the top teams. I like to gamble with streaming a 2 start pitcher, if you have 3-4 reliable guys that give you 6 starts for the week than a questionable 2 start pitcher isn’t going to kill you. What really kills you is when the reliable guys pitch like horse hockey and the 2 start guy does better. Onto the list of 2 start pitchers for the sixth week of fantasy baseball:

Brandon Morrow (@Bos vs. Lackey) (Tex vs. Feldman)
Allowing way too many base occupants. Has an awesome 11.35 K/9. Lackey has been effective last 3, and gets a decent second matchup in Texas. Is a 6 IP, 3 ER kinda guy, and with his offense that’s ok with me. He is good for a win and 12 K’s this week.

Kyle Kendrick (@ Col vs. Smith) (@ Mil vs. Davis)
On here based on 2 starts away from CB. Both Smith and Davis give up a ton of runs and I like Philly to outscore both. Is the best 2 start win sniper this week. Won’t K a lot, will kill your WHIP, but wins are the key. Pitched great last outing vs. Cards.

Ross Ohlendorf (Cin vs. Arroyo) (@ CHC vs. Lilly)
Returns from the dead, back is all healed up. Or they hope. Gets 2 tough divisional matchups. Was strangely consistent last year and was semi-reliable, got some deep league draft love preseason. I am always against starting DL pitchers on their return, so start with that in mind. Typical lunch pail pitcher.

John Maine (Was vs. Atilano) ( @Fla vs. Robertson)
Typical Met pitcher this year, wildly inconsistent. Gets two favorable matchups this week. Has allowed 3 runs or less in in his last 4 starts. That’s good enough for me for a buy low 2 start guy. Gets you a K an inning to boot.

Scott Olsen (@ NYM vs. Niese) ( Col vs. Cook)
The WW darling after his 8 inning masterpiece on Thursday. I don’t think he is as good as that start, but he isn’t horrendous. Should be owned for this week for his 2 starts. Got waxed last outing vs. Col. Good for a win and 10 K’s this week. Decent pickup if he isn’t owned in your league.

Wade LeBlanc ( @ SF vs. Zito) ( LAD vs. Billingsley)
Gets tougher for the youngster. Has pitched enough to be rosterable. Two tough divisional match =ups puts him to the test. Allowed only 3 ER all year. Guy to run for this week as he is looking like the goods, start with confidence. A win and 12 K’s are easily attainable.

Dana Eveland ( @ Bos vs. Dice K) ( Tex vs. Lewis)
Sneaky good so far this year. Has horrible numbers career-wise against Boston (18.24ERA). He is the second Blue Jay on this week’s list, not all birds are bad. He still has a lot to prove fantasy-wise. May struggle this week, maybe an addition just for his second start.

Brett Myers ( @ StL vs. Penny) (@ SF vs. Zito)
Really been unheralded for the fledging ‘Stros. He is going to be traded to a contender, and when that happens you are going to want to own him. Start by adding him this week. A really decent end of rotation guy. 29/11 k/bb rate is sneaky good.

Trevor Cahill ( @ Tex vs. Lewis) (@ LAA vs. Pineiro)
Has decent track record vs. both teams this week. Only making 3rd start of the year. I think he has the goods, but just not yet. Needs 3-4 more starts and will be a confident add. Won’t hurt you this week, great low end add based on 2 start status.