Fantasy Baseball Advice

Last night, Dan Haren took the naysayers and said you know nay.  The line was 9 IP, 0 ER, 4 hits, no walks and 14 strikeouts, and, note to Scherzer, he managed 13 other outs.  Good thing Haren and Pujols started clicking before the trade deadline, Arte Moreno was seen buying some leftover Vegas hotel dynamite and about to give the big poof you to the Anaheim Angels Of A 40 Minute Commute From Los Angeles.  Haren showed great command and movement last night even though his velocity’s been down.  I’d still bet a season ERA above 3.50, unless Haren’s traded every fifth day to the team facing the Mariners.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Albert Pujols – 3-for-4, 2 runs, 2 RBIs and a slam & legs.  What, horsemeat?  Al-Pu is made of 100% ground chuck, baby!  24 more days in a row like this, and we’re good.

Austin Jackson – While he mends his strained abdominal — he’s the Abdominal Strainman! — Quintin Berry should see some time in Jackson’s stead.  Yesterday, he went 1-for-3.  Too bad Quintin Berry doesn’t play for the Royals.  Or that his name isn’t Dan with the middle name Quintin.  You’re still alive in our hearts, Quiz!  I’m gonna eat a submarine sandwich for you.  Berry likes to run.  In fact, I’ll call him, HeRun.  In Triple-A, he had 19 steals in 39 games.  In AL-Only leagues, HeRun isn’t much more than a flyer for speed.  The darker the Berry, the sweeter the SAGNOF!  In mixed leagues, you can do better.  Look at me showing confidence in you.  I’m like your Dad on opposite day.

Justin Verlander – 8 IP, 2 ER, 7 baserunners, 7 Ks vs. Justin Masterson (7 IP, 1 ER, 10 baserunners, 4 Ks.)  It was a game that was all about Justin your instincts.  Sorry, my pun muscle is a little Justy.  Must be because I’ve been fencing at my gym rather than joustin’.  For Masterson, it’s all about adJustin’.  Or re-adJustin, if you dropped him.  His luck shows a guy that was dealing with a bit of injustice.  Is he the meow’s cat?  Nah, that’s unJustinfied.  He could be a back end starter on deeper mixed leagues without an unJustinly amount of Ks.  Not remotely Verlander though, he’s the master, son.

Shin-Soo Choo – Hitting leadoff seems to be working for Choo as he hit his 3rd HR of the year off Verlander.  He’ll probably find a way to go 20/20 out of sheer habit like Bobby Abreu used to.  In a lot of superficial ways (decent stats, kind of boring), these two seem really similar.  Maybe we’ll start calling Shin-Soo-Kabrechu.

John Danks – To the DL with left shoulder soreness.  That might explain why he’s been terrible.  In fact, maybe it’s been lingering since 2010.

Alex Rios – 2-for-4, 3 RBIs and his 2nd homer in as many games.  If an impatient owner (like me) stupidly (still me) dropped him (that’s what I did), I’d grab him.

Dayan Viciedo – 2-for-4, 2 runs, 1 RBI and his 8th homer.  If you’re gonna own him, it looks like there’s going to be 0-for-24 slumps scattered amongst his homers.

Brian McCann – Out for the third straight day.  Sounds like he caught something.

Michael Bourn – 1-for-4 as he homered again yesterday for his third in the series.  This gives me an idea.  How about all players that weigh 170 pounds and under can use an aluminum bat?  Then before each AB, players can weigh-in like a wrestling match.  “Too many sunflowers seeds, Bourjos, grab some wood!”  “Prince Fielder’s out for two weeks for Lap-Band surgery, but when he returns watch out!” and finally “Juan Pierre homers!”

Randall Delgado – 5 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 10 baserunners, 4 Ks.  Looked a lot better than his line indicates, but even if your league has an “Appearances” category, I’m not sure this is what they have in mind.

Juan Francisco – 1-for-4 and 5th homer as he played third base for Chipper, who the Reds honored during their pregame show because it was the last time he’d be playing in Cincy.  Classy move as they gave Chipper an artificial hip.

Homer Bailey – 6 IP, 2 ER, 5 baserunners, 6 Ks.  There should be a Vegas bet where you bet whether Bailey will go 6 innings and give up 2 earned or if he’ll go less than 4 innings and give up four plus runs.  Those seem like the only lines he ever gives.

Logan Ondrusek – Got his second save last night because Aroldis had worked the night before.  I wouldn’t own the whole Reds’ bullpen, but this could be a semi-frequent occurrence.  Dusty hates fantasy baseballers (<–my mom’s term!).

Devin Mesoraco – 1-for-3 with a grand slam.  Thursdays are a fun day for 2 catcher leagues, huh?

Yadier Molina – 4-for-5, 3 RBIs and his 6th homer.  The best of the Flying Molina Brothers came out yesterday — Alfred Molina, “Excuse me, I could catch AND do improvisation theater.”  Yadier had been like half a mummy since his oven-roasted April, but this could be a sign he’s turning it on again, facing Blanton certainly didn’t hurt.

David Freese – 2-for-5, 3 runs, 2 RBIs.  Another guy that took a fortnight siesta, but his bat woke up on Wednesday and now has two homers in the last two games.

Ty Wiggington – 3-for-5, 3 runs, 2 RBIs and a homer.  I’d say he’s going to be in this afternoon’s Buy/Sell, but he won’t.  He’s here now.  Wiggy rarely hits just one and done, and he’s probably out there in a ton of leagues, so if you need a little HBI (Hot Bat Injection), go for it.

Carlos Ruiz – 3-for-5, now hitting .366.  Elsewhere, Konerko homered and went 2-for-4 to raise his average to .384, David Wright homered and raised his average to .405, and Tony Gwynn just hit 415 on the scale.

Austin Kearns – His hamstring injury could mean Gaby Sanchez’s return from Triple-A on the first day he’s eligible, which also happens to be the day the Marlins are giving away Gaby t-shirts to the first 15,000 fans.  That’s like breaking up with your girlfriend on February 13th and getting back together on February 15th.  Anthony Rizzo may want to consider having 15,000 Rizzo t-shirts given away on June 1st.

Anibal Sanchez – 5 1/3 IP, 5 ER, 9 baserunners, 7 Ks.  Such a frustrating start.  Pagan drove in three runs on broken bat hits, a botched rundown that could’ve wiped out one run, a passed ball that was ruled a wild pitch was another run, a blooper by Belt for another run… Basically, Anibal gave up one well hit ball.

Emilio Bonifacio – Who has one good thumb and likes to steal bases?  This Bonifacio!  Looks like Emilio won’t be throwing any air punches for the next four to six weeks.

Omar Infante – 4-for-5, 2 runs and 2 steals, batting .340.  Bonifacio who?!  Emilio.  I know, Random Italicized Voice, it’s an expression.  ‘Bonifacio who’ is an expression?  Forget it.

Melky Cabrera – 3-for-5, 3 runs, 4 RBIs and a steal.  If there’s anyone out there who believes Melky is a .362 hitter, I’d sell him Melky and anything else you got lying around the house that you might not want.

Joe Mauer – 2-for-4, 2 runs, 1 RBI as he homered yesterday.  Hey, does he weigh under 170 pounds?

Justin Morneau – 3-for-5, 3 runs, 3 RBIs, 2 homers and third in three games.  Justin the nick of time!… Okay, I’m done.  Morneau should be owned, shoot, he’s doing better than Ryan Zimmerman. (<–saying nothing!)

Ike Davis – Mets told Ike he definitely won’t be going to the minors.  They had one of their doctors tell him though, since they’re never accurate.  Yesterday, he sat for Veal Rottino.  At least that’s what I think the V. stood for in the box score.

Jeremy Hefner – 3 2/3 IP, 6 ER.  No grotto for you tonight!

Will Venable – 2-for-5, 2 runs, 2 RBIs.  What’s this week’s Creeper not doing?  You should thank FtA for the tip of the week.

Eric Stults – 5 IP, 0 ER, 5 baserunners, 2 Ks.  You know who really appreciated this performance?  Peter Bogdanovich.

Everth Cabrera – 4-for-5, 2 runs and EverCab got the Heartspark Stealsign.  Honestly, I think this is more hits than he had combined over his entire career.

Yoenis Cespedes – Changing his bat grip so he can return from the DL.  He used to nestle the knob, which might’ve caused the muscle strain.  I’d say!  Nestling knobs in the palm of your hand?  That’s the kind of thing you want to keep on the DL, Yoenis.  In related news, Brian Dozier is upset Thome is no longer in Minnesota as his dream growing up was to play with his Jimmy and the Twins.

“Just because we share some organs doesn’t mean you can’t hit 2 two-run homers for each of us!”  Josh Hamilton had a night that makes you feel like you’re seven years old again.  You remember it.  When the birds chirped, it made you smile.  When your dad carried you on his shoulders, you were on top of the world.  When you peed the bed, no one tried to commit you to rehab.  People pinched your cheeks without you having to pay some stranger on Craigslist $75.  You’d throw a pebble into the lake without worrying if you hit someone in the head and blinded them if your insurance would cover it.  A time of joy.  Wonder.  No Splenda.  That’s what Josh Hamilton did for us last night.  And he also gave his stupid fantasy owners 4 friggin’ homers, going 5-for-5 with 4 runs and 8 RBIs.  Why don’t I have him on every team?!  I would not try and sell him high because if he stays healthy (it doesn’t have to be that remote of a chance, you cynical bastard), you have an MVP.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Adrian Beltre – 2-for-5 with a homer.  Pfft, wake me when you hit three more!

Scott Downs – Angels say Downs will be ready to return by Wednesday.  The Sciosciapath still considers him their closer.  Downs goes Frieri!  Downs goes Frieri!  Yeah, worked better when he was on the Blue Jays with Frasor.

Chris Sale – Last week, Ventura anointed Sale the closer.  So…he brought him into the 8th inning yesterday.  Plausible explanation:  He wanted his best reliever in a close game.  Also, plausible:  Sale is not the closer.  Also, plausible:  After all of those Nolan Ryan noogies, Robin Ventura doesn’t know how many innings there are in a game.  Addison Reed got the save with another perfect inning.  He could easily be the closer…Or Santiago…Or Sale.  It’s basically a closerf**k.

Dale Thayer – Literally, within five minutes of me dropping Cashner and picking up Thayer, he was blowing the game.  You still don’t believe The Closepocalypse is real?  He got lucky on a foul ball by Scutaro that was nearly a homer and another ball hit a baserunner.  I’m holding Thayer for now, but I wouldn’t be surprised if someone else closed the next Padres game.

Josh Thole – Mets placed him on the 7-day DL with a concussion.  Hey, I’m no doctor, but from what I’ve gleamed from five minutes of noodling around WebMD and watching how other players have reacted to concussions.  Are we sure the DL for concussions should be less time than the norm?

Jon Rauch – Got the save yesterday.  One small step for Rauch and one giant step for men over six-ten.  Francisco had worked the last three days, so this save for Rauch just shows the pecking order behind Francisco and some flashy neck tattoos.  “Yo, I’m gonna peacock my neck!”  That’s Rauch after reading up on pick-up artistry.

Dan Haren – 3 2/3 IP, 5 ER vs. the Twins?  This doubled the amount of runs the Twins scored in all previous games combined.  I don’t want to keep pointing out the same thing, but Rudy said in the preseason this would be the year Haren falls apart.  So far, Haren’s ERA is 4.19.

Scott Diamond – 7 IP, 0 ER, 5 baserunners, 6 Ks.  In the box score, it said S. Diamond and I thought Selma Diamond pitched 17 years after her death.  She had sass, but not that much, I guess.

Ryan Doumit – 1-for-3, 2 RBIs and his 4th homer.  I believe I said in the preseason that Doumit would be more valuable than Mauer this year.  And that’s me kinda paraphrasing me!

Albert Pujols – 0-for-4 to lower his average to .190.  This isn’t just bad for Albert; this stinks for all Pujolses.

David Robertson – Got the save yesterday as if there was any doubt.  I’d put his over/under for saves at 32.  Over/under for Ks at 110.  And over/under for times A-Rod checks out his package at 17.

Raul Ibanez – 2-for-3 with his 4th and 5th homers.  Seems like the Yankees have been benching him against lefties, which will hurt his overall numbers.  And being 40-something.  That’ll hurt those numbers too.

Andy Pettitte – Will start vs. the M’s on Sunday.  He’s been anything but outstanding during his tune up.  Bernie Williams, “Did someone say they want me to tune up the guitar?”  No, Bernie.  Against the M’s is a solid matchup, but unless things are really hard for you I wouldn’t Pettitte, even though it usually works the opposite way.

Randall Delgado – 5 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 6 baserunners, 5 Ks.  After his last start (8 IP, 2 ER), I said I’d watch him this start.  Well, I didn’t because I was doing the podcast that is coming later today with anutter special guest.  But the box score is telling me, you should pick up Delgado in all leagues deeper than 14 team mixed and possibly even shallower, depending on your starter shituation.  He’s only 22 years old and he could have a 9+ K-rate.  Yes, I basically love all Braves young pitchers, but they’re an easy group to love.

Ryan Dempster – 7 IP, 1 ER, 7 baserunners, 7 Ks.  He obviously should be owned everywhere.  His ERA won’t stay at 1.02, but he does get solid Ks and can have a mid-3 ERA.

Omar Infante – Hit his 6th homer yesterday.  Dah!  Just when Stanton finally passed him.

Anibal Sanchez – 7 IP, 0 ER, 7 baserunners, 8 Ks to lower his ERA to 2.01.  Are we waiting until October to thank me for pushing everyone into drafting this guy?

Aneury Rodriguez – 6 IP, 2 ER, 4 baserunners, 6 Ks.  His minor league numbers are pretty blehtastic and if you pick him up he may give you an aneurysm.

Will Middlebrooks – Left yesterday’s game with hamstring tightness.  As of right now, Middlebrooks looks like he might miss a day or two.  This comes just hours after the Red Sox announced they were considering using Middlebrooks in the outfield.  They’re also considering just using Youkilis as a ticket taker at Gate E.

Daniel Bard – 7 IP, 5 ER, 10 baserunners, 1 K.  Outside of AL-Only leagues, I’m kinda surprised people still own him.

Yoenis Cespedes – Was a late scratch because of his wrist.  Sounds itchy!

Carlos Beltran – 2-for-4, 6 RBIs and two homers, or more homers in one game than Pujols has all year, and nearly more RBIs.  Beltran is The Great Zombino!

Ian Kennedy – 7 IP, 6 ER, 8 baserunners, 6 Ks.  Seriously, don’t mess with the 1927 Cardinals.

Carlos Marmol – Dale Sveum said Marmol may not get the job back.  But he has a 12+ walk rate, doesn’t that count for something?!  I could see dropping Marmol in most leagues.  He was dropped in my RCL and an NL-Only league and no one’s going near him.  I would grab Dolis or Russell, in that order.  (Or reverse order if you’re dyslexic.)

Miguel Tejada – The Orioles signed him.  It was part of a deal Dan Duquette made with the devil:  The Orioles can be in first place at the 1/6th point of the season, but then you must make transactions that make you look silly.

Yovani Gallardo – 6 IP, 2 ER, 6 baserunners, 8 Ks.  As I’ve been saying to people, Gallardo had a 6.23 ERA last April and you still drafted him this year as your top starter.  We’re in May now and he just threw a solid game vs. a tough hitting team.  By August, you will have forgotten he was miserable in April, and then by next April you’ll be frustrated again when he’s wretched.

Ryan Zimmerman – He returned from the DL to go 1-for-4 with a run.  Right back at, huh, Ryan?

Henry Rodriguez – 2/3 IP, 2 ER.  For a guy you got off of waivers, he’s still doing okay.  Don’t pull the rip cord on him yet.

A.J. Burnett – 8 IP, 2 ER, 7 baserunners, 10 Ks, which comes on the heels of a 2 2/3 IP, 12 ER outing.  You know what he’s doing, right?  Here, “Ooh, I’m gonna pick up Burnett.”  BAM, awful outing!  “Eff that in the eff hole, I’m dropping his ass.”  BOOM, good outing!  He’s totally messing with you.

Andrew McCutchen – 1-for-3 with his 1st homer.  The Dread Pirate finally makes his nickname about his hair again.

Francisco Cordero – 1/3 IP, 5 ER.  Move your small children and closers away from the windows!  The Closepocalypse is coming through!  Blue Jays might go to Jason Frasor for the next save chance, but, let’s just say, I didn’t run to the wire to pick him up.  Darren Oliver is another option, but, yeah, didn’t pick him up either.

Ryan Vogelsong – 7 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 11 baserunners, 1 K as Vogelsong plays that sweet doctor’s office music I talked about last week.  Won’t excite you for good or bad, which is sometimes what you need.

Jarrod Parker – 7 IP, 2 ER, 9 baserunners, 3 Ks, ERA is at 1.80.  I’m being serious when I say this, but in any leagues of 12 team mixed or shallower, there’s no reason to have a team ERA over 3.50.

Josh Reddick – 1-for-3 with his 6th homer.  Think this is the first time I’ve mentioned him, or if you’re feeling punchy, it’s Reddick’s bow.  Hard for me to get fully behind A’s hitters, but he now has 4 homers in the last ten games.

J.J. Hardy – 2-for-4 with his 7th homer to raise his average to .244.  Meanwhile, Nick Markakis also homered, going 3-for-5 to raise his average to .246.  Member when Markakis was really good?  Makes you nostalgikis.

Alex Avila – Will miss at least two games with a sore patella.  My pharmacist’s name is Patella.  I don’t think they’re related.

Casey Blake – Retired yesterday.  In remembrance of Casey Blake, let’s not forget the time he painted a table to look like a soccer ball and Manny kicked it and missed a week with a sore toe.

I hate guys that are injured before the season even starts.  I should’ve emphasized that more in the preseason.  I should’ve followed my gut on that with Stanton too.  At least Stanton can play through the nagging pain (hopefully), on the other hand, Mike Morse is shut down for 6 weeks and he has a history of injuries.  (Can you tell I’m still reeling a bit on the Stanton news?  It’s like a teenage love…Don’t…Don’t hurt me again…) As for Morse, he was a former roider (RIP, Lyle Alzado, I don’t know football, but I enjoyed your random guest spots on bad 80′s TV shows) and they say that tends to break down a player’s body.  It’s all very sad (actually, I’m still thinking about Stanton; don’t worry, I’ll move on by Monday).  I don’t think this moves up Bryce Harper’s ETA. (Doesn’t ETA always make you think of business-speak by people who do jobs that you don’t understand even after they explain them?  “I’m a marketing consultant for our foreign sales team.”  You’re making up a job and you hide in a cubicle.  Why don’t I have one of those jobs?)  I think you should lower your expectations for Morse to 17 homers and 90 games played.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Sike!  Before we get into the roundup, just wanted to say you should sign up for the Draft Day freeroll.  What’s a freeroll?  Honestly, I have no clue.  I think it’s, like, a season of fantasy baseball in one day.  “But I want players to annoy me for 162 games!”  I know, but it’s free and Rudy did it last week and had fun, so I guess there’s no harm in it.  You can win some cold hard cash and get yourself a $12 salad!  The cut off is Saturday at 1:05 PM EST.  Anyway II, here’s the roundup:

Mat Latos – 5 IP, 2 ER, 8 baserunners, 1 K.  He didn’t pitch incredibly well (1 K — belch), but he only had one bad inning, which was because Ryan Ludwick is playing the outfield instead of Heisey.  Ludwick barely moved over to get a Gio Gonzalez blooper that started the inning where Latos gave up two earned.  Get Ludwick out of there and play The Juice Box (Heisey — Hi-C — The Juice Box — what?).  Juice Box!  Juice Box!  Juice Box!

Ryan Ludwick – 1-for-4, 2 RBIs.  Why is he playing?  He’s batting .133.  We need to see more? Okay, .240 and 18 homers, that’s more if he plays the whole season.  Who cares?  Dusty, take the toothpick out of your mouth and bench him!  (I’m only slightly annoyed at him because he drove in the two runs that cost me my Gio win, which was a whole nutter shizz show.  Zimmerman should’ve had that Ludwick grounder.  Get off your heels and dive!  How do I not get the win from Gio…Wait, not even there yet…)

Gio Gonzalez – 7 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, no walks, 7 Ks.  How do you not get this win?  Pick a closer — or just pick Henry Rodriguez — and let him close games!  Dive, Zimmerman!  Juice Box!  Juice Box!  Juice– Okay, Grey, breath… Being completely objective, the home plate ump had a nice strike zone and the Reds get pretty neutralized by lefties.  Gio still pitched a great game.  Though the no walks thing will be a rarity.

Anthony Rendon – Nats prospect fractured his left ankle and will miss a few months.  He was fitted for a walking boot, which Bryce Harper signed in pine tar, writing “wuz” instead of “was.”

David Wright – Was cleared to return to game action (if his finger doesn’t hurt him).  I put that second part in parentheses because that’s the part you leave off when you try to sell Wright to someone in your league.  It’s April.  If you’re the Mets, do you let your star 3rd baseman play with a broken finger or do you sit him for a month?  Okay, try and think about that again, but this time don’t pretend you’re the Mets.  Still same answer?  I had a different one.

Madison Bumgarner – 7 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 6 baserunners, 2 Ks.  Great game from the Bum, but why was he brought back out for the 8th inning?  He was over 100 pitches and he hit 3rd the previous inning.  He needed to face Tyler Colvin for 13 foul tips?  Colvin — singer/songwriter/fouler.  You’d think if anyone would be a fouler on that team, it’d be Dexter.

Brian Wilson – 1 IP, 1 ER.  Was far uglier than that, and I’m not talking about the beard.  Wilson loaded the bases, walked in a run, needed the trainer to come out because it looked like his arm was bothering him (was hard to see around Bochy’s head) and could barely find the plate even when he was getting hitters out.  I grabbed Casilla while the trainer was still on the mound.  Romo is the better arm, but Bochy seems to favor Casilla for saves.  Looking for the next big closer to go down, here ya go.

Francisco Liriano – 5 IP, 5 ER, 10 baserunners, 2 Ks.  Giving up 10 baserunners in 5 innings is bad enough, but the Liriano-Mauer battery ended up giving up 5 SBs in 5 innings to the Angels (whose team speed is not to be confused with the ’85 Cardinals).  In 134 IP last year, Liriano only was stolen on 9 times.  Is there any other part of his game that Liriano can regress for us — maybe bite his tongue when chewing on sunflower seeds?

Matt Capps – 1 IP, 2 ER and the save.  Almost had a Cappsizing.

Denard Span – 4-for-5, 1 run, 1 RBI and a steal.  Here’s a fun thing for Topps baseball cards.  They should do one of those novelty dual cards with Span and Billy Butler.  Have it titled, “Spanning the Globes,” and Span stands behind Butler cupping his moobs.

Joe Mauer/Justin Morneau – The M&M boys both homered in yesterday’s game against the Angels in Target Field.  The odds on that exacta were so tiny that, if anyone bought it, Scott Downs would’ve been bankrupted.  Just in case Downs got any ideas, someone made sure he couldn’t walk off the field.

Josh Willingham – 3-for-5 with his 4th homer of the year.  The Other White Meat is red hot.  That is all.

Lance Berkman – Has a small tear in his left calf.  A small tear on a calf?  That sounds like a Guatemalan harbinger of doom.  Berkman says he can return on Tuesday.  Not sure how someone of his age is going to be playing in less than a week with a muscle tear in his calf, and I don’t mean that like, “Hey, he’s going to be playing next Tuesday at 100% and I’m gonna be surprised.”  No, I meant it like, “He’s going to be at 75% and then need the DL at some point.”

Dan Haren – 5 IP, 9 H, 1 BB, 3 ER, 7 Ks against the Twinkies in Hubert H. Homerfree Retrodome with all the runs scoring on a 3-run HR by Mauer.  As Rudy mentioned on the Risky Pitcher post, Haren was heavily dependent on his cutter last year — wouldn’t be surprised if his April struggles (6.97 ERA) are a harbinger of Haren’s first non-borderline ace year in a long time.

Mark Trumbo – 2-for-4 with a slam & legs.  He’s going to be in this afternoon’s Buy/Sell.  It’s gonna be a doozie to end all doozies!

Carlos Pena - 2-for-3 with his 3rd homer.  Remember, he won’t stop hitting homers until around Monday, when he’ll go so ice cold you’ll be looking to chuck Pena.

Jeff Keppinger – 0-for-5 batting cleanup yet again for the Rays.  The Rays are so against giving Longoria any protection that they’ve disabled his home alarm system and are poking holes in his condoms.

Kyle Seager – 1-for-4, and a homer.  He’ll also be in this afternoon’s Buy/Sell.  I told you it’s got doozie written all over it.

Matt Garza – 8 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 5 baserunners, 9 Ks.  It’s an ExtravaGarza!

Drew Smyly -  4 IP, 1 ER, 7 baserunners, 4 Ks.  He has very little experience as a professional, which doesn’t seem to stand in the way of the Tigers (see Porcello).  He looks like he has strikeout stuff, but as I tell my girlfriends, beware the small sample size.  I wouldn’t go near him outside of AL-Only leagues for the time being.  For now, Drew’s a consolation prize SP on his dad Guy’s game show.

Jed Lowrie – Should return from the DL on Friday.  Watch out rusty Astros lineup, here comes your booster shot!

Zack Greinke – 3.2 IP, 8 ER, 10 baserunners, 5 Ks.  We love Greinke, but this gave us bad flashbacks to his infamous “Greink’d” moments prior to his Cy Young year.  Hopefully next outing he’ll be able to put away batters when he gets to 2 strikes.  If I were the type to calculate xFIP and not just read it at other sites, I’d say Greinke was hella unlucky yesterday.  Then I’d fist bump someone and explode my fist, or something equally douchey that is done by people that say hella.

Jamie Moyer – The last remaining Leftosaurus threw about as good a start as you can hope for him @COL (5.2 IP, 2 ER, 9 baserunners).  Pitching Moyer in the mile high air is like pitching Justin Verlander on the moon.

Some analyses strike gold.  Some analyses are an immediate bust.  It’s the third type – the ‘fool’s gold’ type – that are the most frustrating.  After three years of middling predictions, I think my ‘risky pitcher’ analysis from a couple years ago is falling into that 3rd category.

Over the past 7 years, about 24% of pitchers coming off seasons with 2,700+ pitches fit one of the two dropoff criteria (< 2,000 pitchers or, roughly, missing 1/3 of the season or more) or have a significant drop in their skills (measured as xFIP increased by .75+).

I figured that if I could identify some commonalities among the injured pitchers in past years that it would help me predict which pitchers were more risky in upcoming years.  After 3 years of hitting the yearly average in my predictions, I’m resigned to the fact that the findings in my initial analysis were either fluky or I’m really bad at applying the findings.  (Or I need Tom Verducci’s assistance at being less self-critical.)

Below are my results from last year.  About 20% of pitchers had a dropoff season – my most notable misses are Josh Johnson (had predicted him the previous year), Jonathan Sanchez, Dallas Braden, Clayton Richard, Brian Matusz, and Brett Cecil.  (Wow, that list falls off fast, doesn’t it?).  My most impressive accomplishment was predicting Gio Gonzalez gets traded to the Nationals and being the first on record to nickname him Nat Gio.  Hopefully he keeps getting as much drop on his curveball as the breasts typically found in Nat Geo.

Despite my lack of success, I still shy away from drafting more than one pitcher with two of the following three criteria:   1) Throws a lot of sliders, 2) 700+ MLB pitch differential from previous year, and 3) Coming off first season with a full workload (2,500+ pitches).  See below for the dropoff statistics of pitchers that fall under these categories.

Here are ten otherwise solid pitchers that I’d prefer to have no more than 1 on my team if I could avoid it.  Consider my tepid performance to date before taking it too much to heart

(notes: pitch increase totals only include MLB, only includes pitchers who had close to a full season last year – obviously players who were injured most/all of last year like Santana and Peavy are risky.  Also shied away from known injury concerns like Marcum and Carpenter)

Michael Pineda (31.5% sliders, 2,688 pitches) – I’ve liked this guy the moment I first heard his name – probably because it made me think of empanadas which are delicious.  It seems like his poor 2nd half + velocity drop is scaring off a lot of drafters.  He went 136th in my 12-team ‘expert’ Razzball Commenter League.  Can’t argue with selecting him there but I had the 135th pick, planned to take Cory Luebke, and when he was gone, took a closer instead.

Madison Bumgarner (32.4% sliders, 1,500 pitch increase) – I love the Mad-Bum.   We drafted him in the 6th round of our 15 Team LABR mixed league.  Might’ve had him in a couple more leagues but the bidding got too high.  But last year was his first full year in the bigs and he throws a whopping 32% sliders – 4th highest among SPs – and it’s his most effective pitch (3rd best slider among starting pitchers with a wSL of 17.7 – i.e., his slider saved 17 runs above the average pitch).  His fastball came in about league average for effectiveness.  There are pitchers who can manage this type of pitch mix (Clayton Kershaw, CC Sabathia) but it’s a little more risky until they’ve proven they can do it in back-to-back seasons.  (NOTE: Commenters have noted that there is disagreement about Pitch F/X’s classification of Bumgarner’s cutter as a slider and that his true slider rate might be closer to 20%.  That doesn’t remove his risk but definitely a more sustainable usage rate.  I can’t think of another recent lefty who managed a 30+% slider rate and had a productive career except for Randy Johnson – I imagine Carlton had similar usage rates too.).

Jhoulys Chacin (18.9% sliders, +834 pitch increase) – Chacin was on my 2011 list but lived up to his draft value – delivering 11 wins and a 3.64 ERA.  But his K/rate dropped from 9.1 K/9 in 2010 to 6.96 in 2011.  The part that scares me most (and I mentioned this in 2010) is that he is highly dependent on breaking pitches for success and he’s in the worst home stadium for breaking pitches.  His fastball was the 7th worst in baseball amongst starters last year on a per-pitch basis (wFB/C) while his slider, curveball, and changeup were all above average.  His changeup might be his saving grace in 2012 as it was the only pitch of the four that improved in effectiveness between 2010 and 2011.  (Note:  We have him on our LABR team too….getting a little concerned.)

Brandon McCarthy (2% sliders, 2,499 pitch increase) – The formula for getting onto the cover of ESPN Magazine seems to be this:  one marginally successful season + good sense of humor + hot wife.  McCarthy was a prized prospect that White Sox GM Kenny Williams was able to swap for the Rangers’ John Danks (one of the few marks against otherwise awesome GM Jon Daniels).  He couldn’t manage more than 120 IP in a year (majors + minors) between 2005-2010.  When he did pitch, he had bad K and BB rates.  Then, after maybe spending a week at Dave Duncan sleepaway camp, he emerges in 2011 as a ground ball pitcher with great control (1.32 BB/9) to balance against a mediocre 6.5 K/9.  He’s a fine late round pick but I see little upside with a higher than average chance of missing significant time.  (Note:  For AL-only drafters, stock up on A’s SPs.  McCarthy and Colon will both likely miss time.  I like Tom Milone and Tyson Ross at the right price).

Tim Stauffer (0% sliders, 1,774 pitch increase) – Similar to McCarthy.  Prized prospect derailed by injuries.  Throws a lot of pitches that turn into ground balls once hit (I wanted to write ‘throws a lot of ground balls’ but that could be confusing and our blog is incomprehensible enough.).  His wife’s not bad to look at.  Maybe it’s his previous ‘prospect’ status that hides the fact he’s not particularly good.  He’s had a lot of success with his fastball the past two years but it’s hard to put much faith in a 90 MPH fastball that clearly doesn’t lead to a lot of swing-and-misses (6.2 K/9) or comes with pinpoint control (2.6 BB/9).  He’s a Hodgepadre so he’s got some value for home starts but I wouldn’t consider him any better than, say, Clayton Richard.

Jordan Zimmermann (24% sliders, 2,464 pitch increase) – The other Jay-Z came back from Tommy John surgery to post solid if not spectacular numbers in 2011.  His ERA and WHIP (1.15) were helped by low HR and BABIP rates.  His control was very good (1.73 BB/9) so he still projects to be solid at WHIP.  I’m wary of the fact he threw 24% sliders (his most effective pitch) and still had a mediocre K-rate (6.9 K/9).  He’s probably going to go higher in drafts than I like.

Ervin Santana (38.4% sliders, 108 pitch decrease) – I think I put Ervin Santana on the list every other year.  From 2006-2010, Ervin Santana was the bizarro-Saberhagen – good in the even years, bad in the odd years.  He broke the streak in 2011.  I just can’t sign up for a pitcher that is so dependent on the slider.

Dan Haren (0% sliders, 25 pitch increase) – Might as well go out on a limb for my 10th choice.  There aren’t many pitchers as consistently great as Dan Haren – 7 years straight of 215+ IP, 4 straight years of a sub-3.50 xFIP, a sub 2 BB/9 rate in 4 of the past 6 years.  So why the concern?  Much like Roy Halladay, Dan Haren has morphed from throwing a standard pitch mix (Fastball/Slider/Curve/Split-Finger) to relying heavily on a cut fastball.  After ditching the slider for a cutter in 2009, his cutter rate has gone from 23% to 27% to 48%.  In 2011, his cutter was the 3rd most effective on a per-pitch basis and by far the most valuable in aggregate (wCT of 30.5 runs above average was double everyone except for Halladay’s 19.5 and Gavin Floyd’s 15.5).  In fact, Haren’s cutter was the most valuable pitch in aggregate of ANY pitch in 2011.  Unlike Roy Halladay, though, Haren doesn’t have velocity to spare.  His fastball velocity has slowly decreased from 91.9 MPH in 2005 to 90.0 MPH in 2011.  His cutter was at 85 MPH (Halladay’s at 90 MPH), making it one of the slowest amongst starting pitchers.  He had great success with it in 2011 at this velocity – but the pitch really has nowhere to go but down in 2012 and the rest of his stuff isn’t good enough to warrant his ADP if the cutter fails him.

Yes, that’s a fantastic neck curtain I’m rockin’. Besides the point. Don’t stare. What this IS is (who you callin’ stutterer?) an attempt to translate some nerd speak into some useful fantasy baseball draft strategy.

More statistically-inclined minds than my own (mainly a guy with the handle “matthan” at DRaysBay) have figured out a pretty reliable way to calculate expected Ks from pitchers. “Tell us something we don’t know, Dick Anderson.” Okay, how about the coefficient of determination for this particular model is over 90%? *crickets* Considering most number crunchers take 70% and like it, 90% is like jumping-a-dead-battery-with-aspirin-and-chocolate useful. Oh, and it’s reliable like that down to 30 IP. That’s door-breaching-charge-out-of-steel-wool-and-a-fountain-pen exciting!

Here’s the formula: eK%=(ClStr%*.9)+(Foul%*.5)+(InPly%*-.9)+(InZSwStr%*1.1)+(OZSwStr%*1.5)

So why aren’t we reading about this magical formula all over the place? Well, it’s a trip to the dentist to compile the holey data and it uses wisps of cotton-candy-fuzzy math. Regardless, it’s fairly reliable if you floss through it and definitely useful despite the caveats. Having said that, I now say it’s crazy talk to produce something this potentially powerful, then shelve it. That’s like developing an armor-piercing laser, but scrapping it because it’s a smidgen inaccurate and only works a good chunk of the time. There’s still potential for making some big holes in stuff here!

I admit, I do possess some nerd genes and I’ve read through the boring stuff. That doesn’t mean YOU (yeah, you too, I suppose) should have to though, loyal Razzball readers. So what do we do with it then? For one, we can look at actual Ks from pitchers in 2011 vs. their expected Ks based on this formula. That ought to help tell us, in part, who was sandbaggin’ and who was overachievin’. I’ve arranged the numbers so positive is positive and negative is negative (fancy that). I’ve cherry picked players I wanted to highlight and to avoid some of the stat goofs. If you want to check out any others, you can sift through all the source data like I did. I’ve shown my work on a separate sheet, just like in math class.

This part is obligatory, really boring stuff. If you just want to get to the the T & A, skip this section. Just don’t ask questions that are answered here, because then you’ll be “that guy”.

A few players showed up one one set of source data and not the other, or repeated exactly within the same source data, so I’ve eliminated those.
Lists only include players who had 30+ IP for one specific team, not over several teams combined.
A few SP show up on the list multiple times due to having 30+ IP for multiple teams.
Data is split between SP and RP, so players should only be credited with stats for one role or the other per each list, respectively.
Some of the data is skewed by differences in pitch counts, spot starts by RP, relief appearances by SP, trades, and/or other statistical errors between sources.
References:
FanGraphs
Stat Corner
DRaysBay

If you’d like to peruse the data for your favorite players, check out the full document here and comment below with questions. Thanks for reading!

SP Sandbaggers (eK% / K% / K% Diff):

Randall Delgado – 18.0 / 12.2 / 5.8
He represents the biggest difference, postive or negative. Control remained an issue and he was pretty lucky with a .220 BABIP and 86.5 LOB%. However, if he can manage to tack down more first pitch strikes and harness some BBs, he could rein in even more upside. He and everybody else… If he ends up in the majors over Minor/Teheran, I certainly wouldn’t expect a Beachy-like season. I wouldn’t hold my breath for a Minor’s-minors-like season either.

Guillermo Moscoso – 17.9 / 13.9 / 4.0
He should have had enough Ks to place him slightly below the league average 7.13 K/9. However, he was fortunate hitters made enough bad contact (79.1 O-Contact%) to get themselves out when his control lapsed. There’s enough downside to spoil any upside, and the move to Coors won’t help. In the interest of manipulating time and space, let’s just pretend most of these schmohawks are invisible. Collmenter to Vargas: “Hey, can you believe that sh…”

Phil Hughes – 17.8 / 14.2 / 3.6
If you’re reading this (skimming counts), chances are you’ve been burned by Hughes at some point in your fantasy career. He dealt with injury and “hittability” last year, but showed flickers of that sweet, sweet flame. Sure there’s reason for concern, but he’s only 25 and here’s one more reason for optimism. There’s reasoning for ya. If he’s traded or somehow ends up Yanked back into the rotation despite the acquisitions of Pineda and Kuroda, keep the fire burning.

Shaun Marcum – 21.9 / 19.2 / 2.7
2.7% doesn’t sound like a whole lot, does it? However, at 200 IP and 823 batters faced, “U” should’ve been looking at about +20 K and +1 K/9. Yeah, Grey probably had good reason to like him so much. There isn’t much NOT to like about his numbers, so Marcum down for improvement.

Doug Fister – 17.4 / 14.8 / 2.6 (SEA), 20.8 / 20.9 / -0.1 (DET)
And here you thought Fister was fun to mention before? It looks like he had potential to get more guys to swing & miss, it just took the move to Detroit for him to capitalize more, and then some more on top of that. He’s likely to regress a little and his 17.2% slider usage might land him at the bottom fringe of Rudy’s Top 20 Risky Pitchers For 2012 list, but some of his stuff is legit. Welcome, fister+bottom+stuff Googlers!

Edinson Volquez – 23.8 / 21.3 / 2.5
Yes, he strikes dudes out. Yes, he walks them too. Yes, his consistent velocity and plate discipline, absurd 20.7 HR/FB%, and 1st inning ineptitude tell me some of his struggles were fluky. Yes, he will get less run support in SD. Yes, PETCO should help. Yes, he could pull a post-Dusty Harang-ment. Yes, I’m telling you to keep at least a lazy eye on him.

Jake Peavy – 21.6 / 19.3 / 2.3
Though some of his metrics looked like imperials and vice versa, there appears to be a millibigass (that’s a thousandth of a bigass) light at the end of the tunnel. But… and that’s a badonkadonkeykong-sized but… he needs to stay healthy long enough to get his conversion tables sorted out. Sometimes you don’t need standardized OR fanciful measurements to tell you what you should already know.

Jeremy Hellickson – 17.3 / 15.1 / 2.2
Bad news is, his K/9 was only 5.57. Good news is, it should have been about 6.4. “Wait, that’s good news?” Bad news is, his ERA/WHIP were artificially low. Good news is, the extra Ks should balance those out somewhat. “Some what?” Bad news is, he fits the risky pitcher bill. Bad news is, he’ll cost too much come draft time, regardless. “But…”. Yeah, I know good news was supposed to come next.

Danny Duffy – 20.6 / 18.4 / 2.2
On the other hand, I’m hoping this dude eventually ends up back in the rotation since he’s poised for a rebound. He’d been blowing everyone away up until his MLB debut (say that five times fast), and I don’t envision Duffman totally switching from blow to suck. Duff just didn’t trust his stuff. Know who else has had issues with nerves? His name rhymes with slinky… “Ohhh, yeahhh!”

Dan Haren – 22.0 / 20.1 / 1.9
Hairy Dan’s ratios got a little trim from a lower than normal HR/FB rate and BABIP, but his Ks should have been a little fuller. Ironically, his increased cutter use (+20.5% vs. 2010!) seems to be working, as his O-Swing% and O-Contact% go up as his Zone% goes down. All in all, y’all, he ought to retain comparable value. Did I get that “y’all” right, y’all?

Scott Baker – 24.2 / 22.3 / 1.9
Similarly, Baker’s Ks should’ve continued to rise while his ratios collapsed to an extent. Yep, even past his career high 8.22 K/9. It’s hard to put a finger on what exactly his secret ingredient was, but the measurements support it. He’s someone I would not sleep on in 2012, lest you get burned… or accused of assault. Don’t stand so close to me, space invader.

John Danks – 20.2 / 18.5 / 1.7
Danks refined his cutter to a lesser extent than Haren, but he also got more aggressive at pounding the zone and was actually a bit unlucky. There’s every reason to expect him to see both a bump in Ks AND a reduction in his ratios. It could have been more than a little if he’d been dealt, but Danks don’t stank.

There we have it, a Scott Baker dozen. There are about three times as many SP Sandbaggers than Overachievers (nope, no idea why and not too worried about it), so it’s time to move on before we get too bogged down in this shizzpile.

SP Overachievers (eK% / K% / K% Diff):

Clayton Kershaw – 24.7 / 27.2 / -2.7
Here I figured the opposite of Marcum was Mucram… CK won the CY, and deservedly so, but would he have won it with 23 less Ks and .9 less K/9? Probably. Just consider this gap, a smidgen of good fortune and his 25.5% slider use before you start wearing his cologne and get all reachy, reachy for him.

Zack Greinke – 26.1 / 28.1 / -2.0
Knocking his K/9 down to 9.8 from 10.5 isn’t a big deal in the context of a 7.96 career rate. He’s suffered bad luck from various sources the last two seasons, so there’s a chance his ratios rebound some too. However, his F-Strike% and Zone% dropped 2% and 7.5% during that time and a move to the NL. His stuff has bumped his O-Swing 5.1% to compensate, but reading between the percent signs, it might be more than nerves. My gut tells me not to invest too heavily for 2012. If you hear my gut too, hand me the Cracker Jack, will ya?

Ubaldo Jimenez -  – 20.3 / 22.2 / -1.9 (COL), 19.8 / 21.4 / -1.6 (CLE)
He was a bit less than fortunate both in COL and CLE, so his ratios should trend up. However, his velocity went down along with his GB%, F-Strike% and SwStr%. In short, I’m not expecting massive regrowth. Count on Big Jim too much and you could very well end up spending 2012 pulling out your hair, wondering “Why, Ubaldo?!”

Cliff Lee – 24.5 / 25.9 / -1.4
It’s like a freakin’ barbershop with all these cutters cropping up… er… down. The Adverb still would have bested his previous career high K/9 rate with about 10 less Ks and he’s capable of producing similar, though probab-Lee slight-Lee less spectacular numbers again. Of course, investing too much into last years numbers could easi-Lee end like another crusade for eternal youth; poor-Lee.

Next time, I’ll go over the relievers that should see an increase or decrease in Ks.  Until then, I will comb my mullet.