Fantasy Baseball Advice

Alas, for now the Rays are Price-less.  (To recall a conversation I once had with my grandmother after she threw out my 1986 Sportsflic Jose Canseco rookie card, “That card was priceless!”  “Yeah, because it wasn’t worth shit.”)  Frankly, I’m surprised the Rays sent David Price down.  I thought he would start in the bullpen then get starts by the end of April/beginning of May, accumulating 150 innings.  Jason Hammel and Niemann! are far from reliable guys for a team that is supposed to be in the AL East race, but I underestimated the Rays’ thriftiness.  Why are we serving Gulden’s when French’s is twenty-seven cents cheaper?! In the comments on the 2009 Rays fantasy baseball preview, Rudy said I was being too optimistic.  Looks like I was.  Guess that’s why I rock a ‘stache and Rudy has the much more with-it ‘fro.  I’d hold Price in 10 team mixed leagues and deeper.  My prediction is we see Price by mid-May in the majors and he makes a fantasy impact for his patient owners.  If patience is the key, then show me the lock.  Anyway, here’s what else has been going on in spring training for fantasy baseball:

Matt Wieters – I’ve been saying all along that he’s headed to the minors.  So one out of two ain’t bad.  Wieters will be flying into Norfolk International Airport sometime on Monday night.  Looks like another financial decision.  He should be back with the club by mid-May.  If you drafted him, you have to wait on him.  Well, I mean you don’t have to, but what was the point otherwise.  When Gregg Zaun heard the news, he should have had this to say, “If getting demoted so I can start doesn’t kick you in the pants, nothing will.”

Daniel Murphy – I’ve been too lax in mentioning this guy.  Word out of the foothills of St. Lucie is Murphy is batting 2nd.  This is great news for a guy who rocks a solid OBP.  He could be the Mets answer to Kelly Johnson.  It’s more attractive at 2nd base, but there’s a place on some teams for that in the outfield.

Ervin Santana – Rudy told you 20 risky pitchers.  Ervin was one.  You didn’t wanna believe it.  It’s the ‘fro, yo!  (Easy, TCBY.  That’s not fro-yo.)

Shawn Hill – Someone in the comments nicknamed him Baby Webb.  I have no idea why, but Baby Webb is now on the Padres.  Um, a pitcher I like pitching in Petco?  Give me a pen and show me the X.

Kelvim Escobar – He made Rudy’s bounceback pitchers post.  He says you’re welcome.

Tommy Hanson – Maybe he’ll be back in September.  Cut him outside of keepers.

Rafael Soriano – Going to the DL.  In other news, Chipper’s probably hurt too.

Carlos Marmol/Kevin Gregg – Lou will decide this weekend if the Cubs want to begin the year by giving up runs in the eighth or the ninth.

Todd Helton – Retire for the sake of the Rockies.

John Lackey – Forearm tightness.  This is almost as surprising as the Soriano injury.  I’d never expect more than 25 starts from Lackey.

Justin Duchscherer – To start season on the DL?  No way! *Grey turns off faux shock*

Chris Davis – In spring, hitting bombs, striking out and taking names.  And that’s what you should expect in the season, too.

Anderson Hernandez – Hurt.  You can’t keep Ronnie Belliard down!

Felipe Lopez – Going to be leading off and he wants to steal a lot of bases.  He’s already stolen 44 in a season.  He’s eligible all over.  I’m thinking of taking him 13 times in my next draft.

David Aardsma – I suppose he could win the closer job in Seattle, but… David Aardsma?  Eh.

Ryan Braun – He’s hurting right now.  He’s not saying anything because he’s a gamer, but he’s unable to swing a bat.  Frankly, I’m a bit worried.  It was one thing for him to have issues last September, but now they’re returning in April.  I’d still draft him in the first round, but I’d expect a slow start.

Scott Lewis – Him and Anthony Reyes might deserve their own posts, but they’re not getting them just yet.  Scott Lewis doesn’t have overpowering stuff, but then he put up numbers in the minors like he does.  I’d prefer a NL fifth starter (think: Randy Wolf) over a guy with a mid-80s fastball pitching in the AL.  Oh, and he gives up flyballs.  Pass.

Anthony Reyes – I’m a bit of a sucker for a failed prospect making good on old promises (See continuing admiration for Alex Gordon).  Don’t even get me started with my love for guys that iron their hat brim.  So it comes with little shock, I like Reyes.  I like him more than the aforementioned Lewis.  Again, I prefer to go NL in mixed leagues when this deep into starters and I wouldn’t own Reyes in a ten team league yet, but he has good stuff.  He’s an injury risk so don’t pay too much.  Actually, don’t pay anything for either of these guys.  You should be dropping lame bench hitters to take a chance on Reyes.  I see Ryan Church.  I dump Ryan Church for Anthony Reyes.

Micah Owings – You never know how these things turn out.  Fifth starter on the Reds emerges?  Could be.  I’d own him before two other Reds starters.

George Sherrill – He’s choking on turkey bones so far this spring and this year he has Chris Ray to step in and resume closer duties.  Chris Ray may be getting saves as soon as mid-April.

Brian Fuentes – Every year some closers come out of nowhere and erase any faith we had in them coming into the year.  I think this year is Fuentes’s.  His velocity is way down because of a bad back.  Bad backs linger and velocity issues don’t just go away.  With two quality replacements behind him, I think if you own Fuentes, you might want to start making other plans.

Dallas McPherson – Punt.

Adam Jones – Ty Wigginton, “Dude, you totally bogarted my whole box of Twinkies!”  Adam Jones, “Mea culpa, my man.  I was out stealing bags and hitting home runs this spring, and every time I looked up I would see Felix and Adam and I kept reading Pie Eaton.”

With these top 20 3rd basemen for 2009 fantasy baseball, we finish off the twenty lists for the infield.  From weakest to strongest, the top 20s go top 20 catchers, top 20 shortstops, top 20 2nd basemen, top 20 third basemen then top 20 1st basemen.  The outfielders will be coming up next, and I’m sure they’ll be deeper than all of these lists, but that’s just by virtue of the sheer number of them.  If you want some overall perspective, look at our 2009 Fantasy Baseball Player Rater.  In addition, there’s a list of every player who has multiple position eligibility.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 3rd basemen for 2009 fantasy baseball:

1. David Wright – See the top 10 for 2009 fantasy baseball for David Wright’s projections.

1 1/2. Miguel Cabrera – He may not have 3rd base eligibility in your league so he gets a 1/2.  See the top 10 for 2009 fantasy baseball for Miguel Cabrera’s projections.

2. Evan Longoria – See the top 20 for 2009 fantasy baseball for Evan Longoria’s projections.

3. Aramis Ramirez – Welcome to a new tier.  This tier goes from Aramis to Chipper.  I call this tier, “Your last chance for a rock solid 3rd baseman.”  As for Aramis, he was a bit underwhelming in 2007 to follow that up with more underwhelming shizz in 2008.  That he ranks 4th on the list is more of a condemnation of 3rd basemen than an endorsement of Aramis.  I like him, but only to a certain extent.  2009 Projections:  105/30/115/.295

4. Kevin Youkilis – I liked Youuuuuk going into the 2008 season and he didn’t disappoint.  Now, like with Dusty “The American Dream” Pedroia, Youuuuuuk’s getting slightly overrated.  Though Youuuuuk will have a better chance of matching expectations than Pedroia.  Remember I said match, not exceed.  Recognize!  2009 Projections:  95/27/110/.290/5

5. Alex Rodriguez – Drugs bad, A-Rod good, Cyst bad.  Any questions?  2009 Projections:  70/24/75/.295/4

6. Chipper Jones – Sure, the Glass Chipper is never going to make it a full 150 games ever again, but you forget how many guys are available on waivers during the season.  You get Chipper Jones for 120 games then grab a hot waiver pickup for the other 30 games and you end up with a much more productive player than Atkins for 155 games.   2009 Projections:  80/20/85/.320/5

7. Garrett Atkins – Here’s a new tier.  This tier goes from Atkins to Zimmerman.  I call this tier, “Guys with question marks but upside.”  See the top 20 1st basemen for 2009 fantasy baseball for Garrett Atkins’s projections.

8. Chris Davis – See the top 20 1st basemen for 2009 fantasy baseball for Chris Davis’s projections.

9. Jorge Cantu – See the top 20 1st basemen for 2009 fantasy baseball for Jorge Cantu’s projections.

10. Ryan Zimmerman – If only I liked Martin and Huff more, so I could have dropped Zimmerman even further.  Bummerman!  Someone once asked why I dislike Zimmerman so much, I replied, “Read Razzball!”  To which they said, “Razz what?”  I said, “Ball.”  They said, “Ball what?”  We went on like that for twenty minues.  Honestly, if Zimmerman’s on the board late, I could see myself grabbing him this year, unlike last year when there was no chance I was getting him on any team.  The reason I’m saying there’s a chance this year is because he’s now being severely underrated.  He can still hit 20+ home runs and he’s not that old.  Last year, I hated the wrist surgery.  Now we’re an extra year away from it…  Okay, I’m going to stop now bef0re someone catches me defending Zimmerman.  2009 Projections:  80/20/90/.285/7

10 1/2. Russell Martin – Here’s a new tier.  This tier goes from Martin to Encarnacion.  I call this tier, “Guys with fewer question marks and less upside.”  He may not have 3rd base eligibility in your league so he gets a 1/2.  See the top 20 catchers for 2009 fantasy baseball for Martin’s projections.

11. Aubrey Huff – See the top 20 1st basemen for 2009 fantasy baseball for Aubrey Huff’s projections.

12. Adrian Beltre – I had ’04 Beltre.  His 48 home runs.  I got them off waivers.  I knew it would never be that good again. And it won’t.  But he’s actually not putting up awful numbers from year to year.  What, you don’t want 25/10?  Of course you do.  He’s only just turning 30 at the beginning of the 2009 season.  2009 Projections:  80/25/85/.270/10

13. Edwin Encarnacion – Edwin’s one of those guys that I would draft in all leagues.  He’s not going to blow you away with numbers, but he’ll keep you afloat and let other guys carry your team.  In September of 2009, you’ll look at Encarnacion and say nothing good or bad. And that’s the best I can say about him.  2009 Projections:   75/25/90/.285/5

14. Mark Reynolds – Here’s a new tier.  This tier is just Reynolds and Figgins.  I call this tier, “Guys who could potentially kill your team.”  A guy who admittedly doesn’t mind striking out 200 times isn’t usually worth the headache.  But one of these years, Reynolds might hit 40+ home runs and .270 just from having one of those lucky BABIP years.  Later in a draft, if you feel like your team is really weak on power, I’d take a flier on Reynolds.  2009 Projections: 75/31/100/.255/7

15. Chone Figgins – Figgins is exactly the kind of guy I’ve never had on any team.  Why, Grey?  Please explain! Okay, random italcized voice, but lower the eagerness a bit, it’s weird.  Figgins always goes in the mid-rounds and he gives you essentially one category (steals).  This puts way too much pressure on your other guys to bolster Figgins’s power shortage.  Also, if he gives you 35 steals and Emmanuel Burriss (fill-in any speed schmohawk SAGNOF player) at a better position gives you the same ten rounds later, why draft Figgins?  I don’t know, Grey! Why?! That was rhetorical; I just explained why.  2009 Projections:  95/5/55/.295/35

16. Mark DeRosa – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from DeRosa to Lowell.  This tier I call, “Guys I’d prefer not to have on my team, but if they get hot I’d pick one up.”  See the top 20 2nd basemen for 2009 fantasy baseball for Mark DeRosa’s projections.

17. Hank Blalock – Honestly, I had Mike Lowell here then looked at reports of his recovery from hip surgery, looked at his age and decided I’d prefer this schmohawk then Lowell.  But, the thing is, I don’t really want Blalock either.  It was a tough call and in the end Blalock won because I think he’d get injured and I’d be able to drop him, where Lowell would play through injuries and end up costing me much more.  2009 Projections:  55/17/65/.280 in 100 games.

18. Carlos Guillen – See the top 20 1st basemen for 2009 fantasy baseball for Carlos Guillen’s projections.

18 1/2. Pablo Sandoval – He may not have 3rd base eligibility in your league so he gets a 1/2.  See the top 20 catchers for 2009 fantasy baseball for Sandoval’s projections.  BTW, I like Sandoval, just not so much as my 3rd baseman.

19. Mike Lowell – “Hip surgery on an old doode,” my trepidation says.  2009 Projections:  75/20/85/.275

20. Alex Gordon – Here’s the last tier.  It’s called, “Fliers that could pay dividends.”  I’ve said it many times before, and I’ll say it again.  When you’re this deep into a position, you take a flier on a guy rather than the safe, aging vet.  It’s worth the risk.  As for Gordon, can you believe I’m pushing this schmohawk for another year?  Old habits die hard, ask John Holmes.  I already went over Alex Gordon as a 2009 fantasy sleeper.  Listen, I just know know KNOW (Yes, the regular-italicized-caps emphasis.  That’s like the triple dog dare of emphasis.) Alex Gordon’s going to come around.  He’s like that really awkward girl in your eleventh grade gym class that had Doritos in her hair.  You know the one — the one that asked your stupid ass out and you turned down.  Then you ended up going out with Psycho Sally and her crazy-ass ex-boyfriend keyed your ’87 Camaro.  Well, the girl with the Doritos in her hair grows up to be Cindy Crawford.  Don’t you see you’re making the same mistakes in life over and over again?  Geez!  2009 Projections:  85/22/90/.270/10 (<–optimistic, but doable)

After the top 20 3rd basemen for 2009 fantasy baseball, there’s a lot of names, but here’s three that stand out:

Dallas McPherson – I covered him in a 2009 fantasy sleeper post.  Search the site!  2009 Projections:  60/20/80/.245/5

Kevin Kouzmanoff – No, he didn’t explode on the scene like some (me!) would’ve hoped, but he’s still young and… Well, he plays in Petco and I don’t think Ryan Howard could hit 40 home runs in that park so keep expectations in check.  2009 Projections:  75/25/95/.270

Troy Glaus – Don’t even bother drafting him.   Anyone who decides to have shoulder surgery in January isn’t worth the ulcer.   2009 Projections:  Old/Doode/Injured/Shoulder

Dallas McPherson reminds a lot of myself, if I hit 42 home runs in my last year of Triple-A, or if I played in the minors or any sort of organized sport.  I was a city checkers champion in 6th grade. Cust kayin’.  Speaking of striking out, Dallas McPherson just struckout. And again. Whenever you’re reading this, there’s a good chance McPherson is striking out somewhere.  He’s like Mr. Furley in the Regal Beagle.  McPherson struckout 168 times last year in the minors.  That’s a lot.  I don’t know who holds the record for most strikeouts in a minor league season, because I’m too lazy to Google it, but I have to think McPherson challenged that record last year.  Remember they play less games in the minors.  168 is a lot of strikeouts.  A real lot.  He only played in 127 games.  He also walked a lot.  They call these players, Three True Outcome players, because there’s three possible outcomes when they come to bat, strikeout, walk or home run.  Okay, Alice Cooper, school’s out!  So why is Dallas McPherson is a fantasy sleeper for 2009?

Very few guys will give you the possibility of 30 home runs in the 20th round for your corner infidel.  Think about how huge this could be.  Go ahead, I’ll wait.  You’re not thinking, you’re patronizing me.  Fine, I’ll continue anyway. Begrudingly.  Imagine you take Chone Figgins at 3rd — blech, I know, but bear with me — so now you have a major power outage from your 3rd baseman.  How do you make this up?  You grab McPherson real late.  Even in mixed leagues, McPherson should be drafted in the final rounds.  Some of the schmohawks that are being drafted around him are Bill “You Suck For Even Contemplating Drafting Me” Hall, Ronnie Belliard and Ty Wigginton.  None of those guys has the sweet, sweet upside of McPherson.  The Marlins GM has already said McPherson is penciled in at 3rd for 2009.  Pencils do have erasers, but unless something drastically changes, Dallas McPherson is going to be a solid fantasy sleeper for 2009.  If McPherson fails to land a full-time MLB job, he’s got a job waiting for him on one of T. Boone Pickens wind generator farms.

Here’s another 2009 Fantasy Baseball Keeper post so that could mean only one thing — it’s Friday! Before we get into today’s keeper post, page yourself to the front desk so your boss thinks you’re doing something. Nice. Okay, now that John Q. Walmart is out of your hair, let’s look at the Marlins centerfielder, Cameron Maybin. Is he Hanley Ramirez in the OF? That would turn your fantasy baseball team up a notch, wouldn’t it? What, you can’t get behind an Emeril reference? Whatevs. Maybin is an unrefined five-tool stud. Sorta like a young Burt Reynolds. You want speed? Yeah, Maybin’s got that. As Josh Hamilton may have once said at gunpoint, “I swear to you, he has speed!” Maybin could end up leading off for the Marlins, pushing Hanley to the three hole. This would be ideal for Maybin’s fantasy owners. Yo, G.A., Maybin have any power? Yup, but it’s still developing. In 2009, fifteen to twenty home runs may be (hehe) too much to ask from Maybin, but there’s a chance that he could be a 10/50 guy, much like Jacoby Ellsbury in 2008. Past 2009, Maybin could become a 25/50 guy or Hanley in the outfield. That makes Maybin one of the top keepers for 2009. Anyway, here’s some more keepers or players to not keep for your fantasy baseball team in 2009:

KEEP

Dallas McPherson – Hey, it’s Marlins Day! Hey, Marlins Day, say hi to your mother for me. When the Marlins GM was asked how they are going to make up for the power they lost with the Jacobs trade, you know what he said? Hire Canseco as their strength and conditioning coach? No, silly. He said, McPherson would see playing time at 3rd. He’s got piz-op.

Matt Holliday – This might seem obvious to some, but I’ve heard some people panicking over these swirling Holliday trade rumors.  If Holliday does leave Coors, his value takes a hit but there’s time to cross that bridge. With the Phils or Mets, he’ll still have solid lineups around him. We’ll figure out his fantasy worth if he is indeed traded, until then hold onto him.

DON’T KEEP

Rafael Furcal – I’m sure someone will overpay this offseason for Furcal’s services. (I’ve heard the A’s are interested. When did they come into money? Did Billy Beane’s rich Auntie die?) Furcal pulled a Kotchman in 2008 and I wouldn’t bank on him bouncing back in 2009. Maybe Beane just likes the idea of an injury-prone shortstops — See Crosby, Bobby.