Sign says, ‘Don’t stay away, fools,’ cause Cody Bellinger rules! No? Okay, go to sleep. “Go to sleep” is my new favorite thing I say that my Cougar can’t stand. She’s like, “Why are you excited?” Rather than saying, “I’m excited because Cody Bellinger was called up,” I say, “Go to sleep.” Is that bad? I feel like her reaction is like the step before divorce. “Baby, we’re good, go to sleep.” “It’s 4 o’clock on a Tuesday.” “Yeah, go to sleep.” And then we’re divorced. You know who isn’t divorced? Cody Bellinger! Okay, I’m talking crazy, but I’m excited, you get it. In 18 games of Triple-A, he was hitting .343 with five homers and seven steals. I will now cackle maniacally. Who is this guy, Justice Eric Ruth Thames but with speed? I can’t even. *puts handkerchief to forehead, and faints* Oh, thank you for catching me in my dream state, Giancarlo. This is funny (not funny), Bellinger had three homers last year in Triple-A. Guess how many games? Oh, three. Three games! I wanna project him over five months for 17 HRs, 20 SBs, and .280, but feel like that is too conservative, that’s how crazy I am for him. Yes, you should absolutely grab him. Where will he play when Pederson returns from the DL? Not sure, but worth grabbing him now to see how the Dodgers handle it. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
So here’s something ridiculous – I think the Oakland A’s are my least favorite team. Scratch that, F THE CARDS! Even if they do have the best fans in baseball… A’s are my least favorite AL team. And it’s nothing to do with particular players, trying to be “hipster” and not liking Monyeball (It’s a cool movie! Love the music.), or residual ire due to the Warriors. Ugh, NBA with only 2 or 3 competing teams every year – BORING! It just seems like every year, their offense is lacking, yet they pound on pitchers when you least expect it. Cough, James Paxton, cough. It’s so annoying! It all started when I owned CC Sabathia on some dynos back when he started with the Yankees, and it felt like every April or May the A’s would tag him for 7 or 8 runs every game. Plus, ya know, I didn’t buy into Josh Donaldson and Khris Davis decided to be a consistent power hitter in a shittier park, but we’ll end this absolutely ludicrous rant here.
Due to the above, I don’t watch a ton of A’s, so I have yet to see Andrew Triggs pitch. His scouting report is unimpressive: his fastball actually lost velocity to be a sub-90 MPH pitch, he gets groundballs which usually means Ks should be low, is 28 and a converted closer, and it just all feels like smoke and Black Mirrors. He’s a robot! But maybe that perception is a reaction to my A’s bias, especially since he went into yesterday with three straight scoreless start wins. Well, he did allow 2 unearned runs in one of em and 1 in another – yet another reason I think it’s Black Mirrors. So I decided to watch his start Sunday afternoon to finally get the book out on the guy, and here’s how he looked against the Mariners:Please, blog, may I have some more?
Amir Garrett, or as he’s commonly referred to as, Muslim Mrs. Garrett, took Natalie, Jo, Blair, Tootie and that little white kid, who no one remembers, to school last night. Muslim Mrs. Garrett was like, “Listen, child, I’m your boss while you’re in this park and I’m going to rule over you with sweet motherly affection, but an iron fist like you get from a male Gulag prisoner.” Yesterday, he straight dazzled — 7 IP, 2 ER, 8 baserunners, 12 Ks, ERA at 1.83. MMG is so out of nowhere I feel like we need to start at the beginning. He was born– Okay, flash forward Lost-style and they’re off the island and Garrett is a former basketball player, so his age isn’t as old as it seems for his development level. I think because of that he could also sneak up on people. His control gets wonky at times, and he doesn’t read as a strikeout pitcher, but there he was doing just that last night. He could surprise some people, but A) Reds and their ballpark. B) Rookie. C) There’s no C. To take this back to 80’s sitcoms, there could be some Boners along the way through Growing Pains, but I’d grab him if you feel like Parker Lewis Can’t Lose, or can just handle the risk. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
I wonder if Freddie Freeman has Fletch-like dreams where he pictures himself with a huge afro and his name is Freddie World B. Freeman. “He’s actually 6-5, with the afro, 6-9. Pretty good hands, loves to hit ones deep. His club is behind by three, and World B. Freeman drains a three-run homer! Wow, was that some kind of hit. You know this kid from the gritty streets of Orange County, California sure can play.” By the way, gritty in Orange County refers to a Sonic Drive-In that has a B grade from the Health Department. So, yesterday, Freeman put up those stats that I told you to pay a 2nd round price for — 4-for-5, 3 runs, and a double slam (1, 2) and legs (1), hitting .346 on the year. I was truly perplexed how low I saw some people ranking Freeman in the preseason. If anything, I think a stronger case could’ve been made to have Freeman ranked above Miggy, who was a consensus top 12 pick everywhere. Guess Freeman could use the name Mr. Under-ranked when he sneaks into country clubs to visit Dansby Swanson (1-for-5, 1st homer, hitting .179). Anyway, here’s what else I saw this weekend in fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
When did Opening Day for the Padres become a laugher? Was it when Corey Seager (2-for-5, 3 RBIs) homered off Christian Bethancourt? You might remember Bethancourt was a catcher last year, but the Padres brought him back this year as a reliever. If the Padres are going to make every one of their terrible hitters a reliever, their bullpen is going to get crowded. Maybe that wasn’t the moment it became as cringeworthy as Michael Jackson/Lisa Marie’s romance. Maybe it was the moment Jhoulys Chacin was pulled after giving up nine earned in 3 1/3 IP. Considering this was the Padres’ best starter, the game score for their fifth best starter is going to be 38 to 1. Maybe the moment an 0-162 season became a possibility was when Yasmani Grandal (2-for-5, 3 RBIs) hit his 2nd home run, tying Madison Bumgarner for the major league lead. Or maybe it was the moment Manuel Margot (1-for-4, 1 run, hitting leadoff) tried to take first base after three balls, because he was facing Kershaw, and no one wants to face Clayton Kershaw (7 IP, 1 ER, 2 baserunners, 8 Ks). Kershaw must’ve felt like Meatloaf when he mowed down Dan Cortese’s 1999 Rock n Jock team. Oh, and haven’t even mentioned Joc Pederson (1-for-3, 5 RBIs with his 1st homer, a grand slam). He never gets any love in the preseason, but I can’t ever (I mean never) move past that he was the first 30/30 guy in the PCL in 80 years. Kinda wish I owned Pederson in more (any) leagues. Well, looks like LA now owns San Diego’s Chargers and Chacin. Roscoe’s Chicken & Waffles might be the next beneficiary. Though, if LA takes San Diego’s navy, it’ll prolly only be used in a West Hollywood musical featuring Village People songs. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
Before we jump right into this draft recap, let’s go over a little bit of background about the league and its details. This isn’t like the typical RCL 5×5 rotisserie league we often talk about in this space. LOEG is a 10×10 head-to-head keeper league, with 10 teams and four keepers per team from year to year. The league has been around for something like ten years and has been graced by the presence of yours truly for the past five.
Since the categories, scoring, and rules are a little different in this league I’ll break down all the details below. I think it’s important to break this down a bit first because not only do I want to bore you to death, but I want you to have all the information while you are going over the results and making fun of my team in the comments section. Anyway, here we go:
Razzball Commenter Leagues are open! Play against our contributors and your fellow readers for prizes. Join here!Please, blog, may I have some more?
As I begin to prepare my projections and rankings for the 2017 season, I like to look back on the previous season’s attempt to not only assess my work, but also to learn how I can do better next time. Projecting statistics in any sport is a tedious and arduous task. The variables, formulas and algorithms are constantly changing and if you don’t adapt with them, your results will lose their precision and accuracy. However, I’d like to make one point blatantly clear, projections are nothing more than calculated guesses. Some are better than the next, but none are even close to perfect.
Let’s see how I fared with my 2016 efforts. For all positions I will provide the following six numbers: projected points, actual points, projected rank, actual rank, projected points per plate appearance and actual points per plate appearance. I am including points per plate appearance because it helps put a player’s projections vs performance into perspective when they’ve missing time due to injury. For pitchers I’ve replaced points per plate appearance with points per start. I’ve also included a column showing the percentage by which my points projections were off. Any player with an “n/a” listed in this column is because that player spent at least 30 days on the disabled list.
Lastly, a quick note about the rankings listed in this post. These rankings are based purely on points. This season I plan to provide additional rankings that allow me to adjust them based on three important factors: intuition, gut and my sporadic conversations with Nostradumass.Please, blog, may I have some more?
To paraphrase Tupac from Brenda’s Got a Baby, “I hear Grey’s got 2017 fantasy baseball rankings, but Grey’s barely got a brain. A damn shame. That guy can hardly spell his name. GREY’S….GOT EM….RANKINGS! Don’t you know he’s got ’em. He wrote them solo, and he wrote them on his bathroom floor and didn’t know what to throw away and what to keep. He crumbled these rankings up and threw them in a trash heap. GREY’S….GOT EM….RANKINGS! Don’t you know he’s got ’em.” Don’t say I don’t keep my shizz socially conscious. Or is it socially conscience? Meh, doesn’t matter, I do it either way. So, this top 60 starters has seven pitchers I’m not crazy about. That’s more than the last post, but still not that many. I.e., there’s a ton of starters to draft. As with previous rankings posts, my projections are included and where I see tiers starting and stopping. Anyway, here’s the top 60 starters for 2017 fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
Here we are, the third of four posts about the Couch Managers 2017 Industry Mock Draft. Previously, I posted recaps of rounds 1-6 and rounds 7-12. This post is for rounds 13-18. The final post will be for rounds 19-23. Complicated stuff, I know. But try to keep up.
In case you have yet to see my previous posts, here is a quick recap of the league rules for this mock:
This mock was for a 15-team, 5×5 roto, with 23 roster spots made up of 9 pitchers (9), 1 spot for each position (8), a second catcher (1), 2 more outfielders (2), one corner infielder (1), one middle infielder (1), and one utility position (1).
As I have done with the other posts, I’ll post the results below by round and will offer a few of my thoughts for each round…Please, blog, may I have some more?
It seems to be a weekly activity for me to genuinely question whether the calendar on my phone is accurate. We’re creeping up on the last week of January and the temperature in the Northeast has convinced me that in some alternate universe, I’ve already drafted my fantasy baseball teams and opening day is right around the corner. Even more terrifying? In this universe, Khris Davis and Chris Davis are actually the same player.
What keeps me sane chronologically, and prevents me from sending my phone back to Apple, is the fact that ADP (average draft position) is continually adjusting, and at a higher frequency as more draft data rolls in.
Instead of boring you to death with simple regurgitation of average draft position data, I decided to pitch the following players based on their minimums and maximums. The highest and lowest they’ve gone in drafts.
Why is this important? Thanks for asking! If you love a player going into a draft, I’m a proponent of looking at this ‘max’ pick and trying to rationalize if you as an owner could possibly take him there. Grey loves Ian Desmond. The max pick Desmond has been drafted at in NFBC leagues is 20th overall. Grey has Desmond 19th in his top 20. Relative to those drafting in NFBC, leagues with the highest correlation to both homelessness and divorce, Grey really does love Desmond.
I look at the minimum and see a slot where any player holds extremely mitigated . Think of this as a standard for guys you don’t like. Even if you say you’re never going to draft a player, if Paul Goldschmidt is sitting on your board at 10th overall, you take him, and invite me to your league in 2018.
Sure, this range can be skewed by outliers, but simply looking at these differences produces a list of players with divisive storylines and some of the better high risk, high reward cases out there. I chose four of the highest min-max variances among the top 300 players. Let’s have some fun!Please, blog, may I have some more?