Fantasy Baseball Advice

Last week, my borderline fantasy starter post was nominated for a Clio.  Lost to Draper, but what else is new?  Drunks get all the breaks.  Just being nominated was a thrill.  My line for last week was:  2.17 ERA in 108 IP (that’s only 26 earned runs, you’re welcome).  The WHIP was 1.19 with 7 Wins and 71 Ks.  To recap, these aren’t guys I’d drop anyone worthwhile to get, these starters are meant for streaming purposes and all of their ownership in ESPN is under 50%.  These streamers are in no particular order.  Also, in the final month of the season, managers juggle their lineups more, so there’s no guarantee all of these guys are listed on the right day.  Anyway, here’s some borderline starters for this week in fantasy baseball:

Friday, September 3rd

Fausto Carmona – I’m not a fan of Carmona, but he gets the French in Safeco, talk about an easy victory.  French may just start pitching for the Indians halfway through the game.

Ivan Nova – Gets his toughest matchup yet vs. the Blue Kays.  I’d only go here if I absolutely needed the start.

Daniel Hudson – Might finally be over 50% owned by the time you read this.  You should’ve grabbed him a month ago when I was first telling you about him.

Saturday, September 4th

Jason Hammel – Actually has been much better at home and hasn’t been great in Petco, but, well, it’s still Petco.

Rick Porcello – It’s not stacking up to be the best week for streamers when I’m recommending guys I don’t particularly like.  Porcello has given up only 5 hits in his last 14 IP and he gets the peasant Royals.

Bud Norris – As we saw from his last start, he’s risky, but his Ks are terrific and he gets the Diamondhacks.

Sunday, September 5th

Wade LeBlanc - Has a 2.71 ERA at home.  Guess where he is on Sunday?  Yup.

Wade Davis – Sticking with the Wade theme, Davis has a 1.13 ERA vs. the Suckie-O’s this year.

Jorge de la Rosa – When I mentioned to one of Razzball’s co-writers that Rosa was only owned in 47% of ESPN leagues, I got this response.  Hater Bell, “Ownership numbers at ESPN is like saying what percentage of all morons remember to remove their pants when showering.  The sample size may be large but the people within that sample are questionable.”  dlR goes to Petco and hasn’t given up more than 3 earned since July 17th.

Armando Galarraga – Has dominated the Royals in his career.

Justin Masterson – He could kill your WHIP and potentially your ERA, so be very careful in H2H leagues running him out there on a Sunday.

Monday, September 6th

Ian Kennedy – Has held the Giants to a .192 BAA and 21 Ks in 20 2/3 IP.

Jordan Zimmermann – Goes against the Mets, who are next to last in offense post-All-Star Break.  Only beating the Mariners.

Tuesday, September 7th

Dallas Braden – Not a huge fan, but he gets the M’s, a team he has a 1.16 ERA vs. this year.  Actually, every pitcher might have that ERA against the M’s this year.

Wednesday, September 8th

R.A. Dickey – As long as he continues to be unowned in more than 50% of ESPN leagues, I’ll continue to recommend him.  He has a 2.56 ERA on the year.  Yes, that’s better than the guy you’re thinking of right now.

Ivan Nova – There’s definitely a theme with these streamers.  If the pitcher goes against the M’s, Suckie-O’s, the Mess, peasant Royals or in Petco, then it usually works for me.

Daniel Hudson – By the time I got to the end of the post, he was still under 50% owned, unless the power of Razzball pushes him over (or people just come to their senses).

The Verducci Effect as explained by Amerigo Verducci, “Pitchers generally feel the effects of abusive increases in workload the next year, not the season in which they were pushed.  That’s a no amore!”  I believe Amerigo’s cousin in the States, Tom, leaves off the last line when he’s describing it.  So to avoid this, clubs shutdown or skip young pitchers (this applies to those 25 years old and younger).  In fantasy baseball, lots of championships are won in September, H2H and otherwise.  If you have rookie pitchers, it’s imperative — ooh, strong word — that you pay attention to which pitchers are going to be shutdown or skipped.  Anyway, here’s a list of some pitchers who may be shutdown in September:

Mat Latos – I’m positive if they clinch early, Latos will be done for the regular season.  Then again, Latos was on Amerigo’s list last year and he’s doing a’ight.  I say pitch him an extra 200 innings this year and he’ll have a zero ERA in 2011.

Jaime Garcia – Been pretty yawnstipating for the last month or so and now he’s inching closer to The VE, a pitcher’s worst STD.

Jeremy Hellickson – Rays are conservative and Hellickson’s already ticketed for the bullpen.

Phil Hughes – With the results of the Joba Rules and Hughes Rules coming back negative (or is that positive?), I’d just continue to throw Hughes, but I don’t run the Yankees (I know that was a common misconception, sorry to disappoint).

Madison Bumgarner – Probably has around 5 more starts left in his arm.  Giants are a team that is in playoff contention, so they might push Bumgarner.  It wouldn’t surprise me, at least.

David Price – Wouldn’t be shocked to see Lance Cormier start a game for the Rays in the last week of the season after they’ve clinched, unless the Sox push them to the brink for the Wild Card.

Stephen Strasburg – If it’s a surprise to see him on this list, it’s good to have you emerge from that coma.

Mike Leake – Between him and Travis Wood, Dusty is gonna have to try and find where he wrote down Harang’s phone number.

Travis Wood – See 1/8th of an inch above.

Mike Minor – Is he even still in the rotation?  Yes, but won’t be for long.

Dallas Braden – If he throws another 30+ innings, prepare for the 2011 post title, “Verducci Does Dallas.”

Jhoulys Chacin – Rockies better put a leash on, uh, Yo-Lease.

There are two weird trends going on this year. The amount of 1-0 games and the desperate creepiness of Carl “Purple Pie Man” Pavano’s mustache. Both completely weird me out in different ways. Fantasy wise 1-0 games suck, unless you are like me and like to dry hump starting pitching. The Pavano situation is awful. He reminds me of a guy with an endless supply of candy, that drives to the game in a van with an airbrushed wolf howling at the moon under the tinted windows. Just plain creepy. We are oozing to the playoffs with about 4 weeks to go. Now is a better time than never to make every attempt to go 7-3 rather than 5-5. So buck up and start streaming like you own it. Worse case scenario you get “smushed.” Have a look-see at the least likely owned 2 start options for this week of fantasy baseball.

Daniel Hudson (Cin vs. Arroyo) (Col vs. Francis)
His picture may be going in my locker soon. Shows great stuff, I just hope he doesn’t do too well, I don’t want to overpay next year. ERA in the mid 3’s, 6K’s/start. Run to pick him up… Stop, tie your shoe first.

Brad Bergesen (Sea vs. Fister) (Tex vs. Lee)
Huh, a complete game. What the Buck? It actually was a nice game pitched for all 55 people in attendance. Don’t get too excited, he is now done getting complete games for the decade.

Mike Minor (Was vs. Olsen) (ChC vs. Wells)
Future number 3 in the ATL. Decent four pitches, changeup is a plus pitch, seems to short arm it a little. BAA comparable to Jeremy Sowers.  Yeah, I just cancelled my subscription.

Kevin Correia (@ ChC vs. Gorzellany) (@Mil vs. Narveson)
You’re going to say, “Smokey, two road starts for a Padre?” My rebuttal is, they have to show some moxy. They are in a playoff hunt. Check the numbers, he isn’t that great at home either.

Chris Volstad (@Pit vs. McDonald) (Hou vs. Rodriguez)
Is only as good as the Marlins offense. He is 6-8, maybe he rides the pine for the Heat and gets a ring. Half of his wins against the Nats. Which isn’t really helpful info for this week. Previous bad outing vs. the Pie Rats.

Dallas Braden (Tor vs. Morrow) (TB vs. Garza)
2 complete games in last 3. ERA half run better at the home. Morrow may have shot his load, expect a disaster.

Kevin Millwood (Sea vs. French) (Tex vs. Hunter)
Yeah, he is really bad, but Baltimore is hot. Still, far from a safe bet in either game.

Jon Niese (@ Hou vs. Happ) (@Pit vs McDonald)
Fry Pan is pitching well just no run support/bullpen. The Mess are atrocious. He is going to be a good buy low guy with an innings warning next year.

Bronson Arroyo (@ Ari vs. Hudson) (Col vs. Francis)
Still under a 4 ERA for the year with 12 sneaky wins for the contending club. Still hate the pitching motion, looks like a ballerina wearing stirrups.

The deadline is here. Nobody has any money, but want top starting talent. Huh? Whatever happened to, you have to spend money to make money? Several big deals are coming. Haren and Oswalt top most teams wish lists. As I sat at the Yankee game on Friday, dancing in the rain(literally), I realized that you need two people to do the Kid N Play dance. Huge fail. I still can’t believe that it’s week 17 already for fantasy. Teams that are out of it you won’t hear from again until the draft next year. Top teams are trading pennies for dollars, and the middle teams are saying what about us. Not a great list of viable options this week, continue reading you’ll see, but that doesn’t mean that one start from one of these guys won’t help turn your 4-6 into a 6-4 week. It’s getting late in the game to try and make a move so you may have to start gambling if roster space is an ally. Here are the low end two start options for week 17 in fantasy baseball:

Dallas Braden (@ Tex vs. Lewis) (@ Chw vs. Floyd)
Someone tell Dallas that everyday is Mom’s day. Winless since May 9th. ERA hasn’t suffered, still under 4. May get start Sunday, which takes him off the list. ERA 2 runs higher on the road.

Ryan Rowland-Smith (@ Chw vs. Floyd) (@ Min vs. Liriano)
Hyphens are the Malachi of punctuations. Huge disappointment this year. ERA and win total are poor. Seattle is a team in turmoil, and the S.S Mariner is sinking, call mayday.

Jonathon Niese (StL vs. Garcia) (Ari vs. Haren)
Another fledging team, the Mets, are stumbling to the deadline with Minaya still as GM.  He has to have blackmail photos somewhere of the Wilpons. 2.89 ERA over last 10 starts, will get you 5 Ks per start.

Zack Duke (@ Col vs. DeLaRosa) (@ StL vs. Garcia)
First win since May in his last outing. I wanna like Pittsburgh, but they suck out loud. A peripheral nightmare. When was the last Pirate SP that you had to own? Yeah, that’s right, it was Oliver Perez in 2004.  Mercy.

Jon Garland (Lad vs. Billingsley) (Fla vs. Johnson)
Home cooked, numbers don’t lie. 2 starts at home and I’m buying. Has scuffled as of late, but he is still named Jon Garland. Rely on the facts here:  2 home starts, but temper expectations when chasing wins.

Jason Hammel (@ Phi vs. Blanton) (ChC vs. Dempster)
9 wins already, that’s pretty nice for a #3 guy, the Rox are going to go on a tear soon. 3 ERA in last 10 starts is nice. 3/1 K-rate is sneaky. 53 k’s in last 62 innings. ERA 2 runs higher on the road, so may be a sit at Citizens.

Jake Westbrook (Nyy vs. Vazquez) (@Tor vs. Litsch)
Probably only makes one start for the Wahoo’s, likely to be dealt. He will be a completely different pitcher in the NL, hop on early in deep leagues as he may be a trade deadline darling for the playoff push.

Randy Wolf (Cin vs. Arroyo) (@ Hou vs. Wright)
Seriously gets left in for 12 runs, against the Pirates, nonetheless. Ugh, fantasy ineptitude at its best. I miss the days of the Wolf masks and dancing around like Thriller when he pitched.

Brandon Morrow (Bal ve Bergesen) (Cle vs. Huff)
K/9 leader for starting pitchers. ERA is getting to a respectable level. Awesome matchups this week. Ride the Ks, wins should follow.

Joe Blanton (Col vs. Hammel) (@ Was vs. Atilano)
Name sounds like the guy who runs the neighborhood junkyard. Gives up way too many hits. Throws an 8 K game and then craps the bed, that’s fantasyspeak for waiver fodder.

Chris Tillman will start Saturday for the Orioles.  He’s yet another prospiñata for the Orioles.  They’re fun to play with until they get the stuffing beat out of them by the Yanks, Sawx, Rays or Blue Ks.  Before picking up Tillman, do me one favor.  Ask Matusz’s owners how the experience has been owning him.  Though since they’re probably your competition they may lie to you.  Those bastards!  Maybe you can ask Matusz yourself since he’s probably on your waivers.  Can Tillman be lights out?  I suppose.  Is he worth a flier in 12 team leagues?  Eh, if expectations are in check.  You should proceed with caution.  Or you can pull the ol’ “You gotta use your waiver claim, sucker” trick with Tillman.  Let me explain the unfortunately named “You gotta use your waiver claim, sucker” trick.  You grab Tillman off waivers, then the next day you drop him so someone (<– the sucker) uses their waiver claim to get roofied.  Ah, yes.  That stings.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Frank Mata – Will Ohman seems to be the leading candidate for saves, but Mata’s a dark horse for saves (that’s not racist).  He was the closer in Triple-A Norfolk, which is only slightly below the Orioles in the ESPN power rankings.  I don’t think the O’s will/should throw Mata right into the fire, but they did that with Alfredo Simon, so there’s that.

Will Ohman – Ugh, too many Orioles stories today.  It’s like Senator Clay Davis took over the blog.  Sheeeeeeet!  I don’t think it’s clear cut that it’s Ohman over Meredith for saves.  It’s not like one is Rollie Fingers and the other is his lesser known brother, Stank Fingers.  But Ohman did come in yesterday for the scoreless ninth.  Then again, it wasn’t for a save.  Then again II, it was a save opportunity when he started warming up.

Dallas Braden – Left the game in the 4th inning for an undisclosed reason.   A-Rod said, “Maybe he missed his grandma.”  Those two!

Jake Peavy – 6 IP, 6 ER, 9 baserunners, 5 Ks vs. the Indians.  Peavy may just be the secret poison pill you can drop in your opponents’ drink.  I’ll explain.  You drop him and someone will undoubtedly pick him up.  Then when they put him in their lineup, he fizzles in their drink and their ratios die.  Right now, that might be the best you can hope for.

Mike Leake – 7 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 11 baserunners, 3 Ks and now has a 2.70 ERA on the year.  In the preseason if I would’ve told you to draft Leake instead of Peavy, you would’ve punched me in my virtual mouth.  Crazy game this fantasy baseball, huh?  On the bright side if you don’t own him, I fully expect Leake to hit a wall at some point in the summer and be unusable.  Think Cueto last year.  On the not so bright side if you own him, see the previous two sentences.

Ryan Doumit – Now has two homers in his last three games.  If you’re sitting on a catcher you’re not happy with or recently just found yourself saying Goddoumit, Ryan could help.

Neil Walker – Hit in the two hole going 1-for-4 as the Pirates brought up their 2004 first round pick to fill-in for LaRoche.  If this were a reading comprehension test, how many context clues can you get out of the previous sentence?  Let’s see, the Pirates suck yet they left a first round draft pick in the minors that long, what does that say about Walker?  Yeah, he’s had his struggles.  I’d take a flier in NL-Only leagues because he has been hitting in the minors so far this year, but my hopes ain’t sky high.

Jon Lester – 6 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hit, 5 BBs, 9 Ks as he beat James Shields.  Ha!  Though Shields’s line was 8 IP, 2 ER, 6 baserunners, 5 Ks and his ERA is 2.99 to Lester’s 3.15.  Dah!

Jose Reyes – 3-for-5, 3 Runs, 1 RBI and 2 steals.  Could it finally be the end of Spring Training for Reyes?  Fingers crossed, rabbit’s foot rubbed, juju idol kissed.  Hopefully Reyes goes on a SB tear rather than a hamstring tear.

Anibal Sanchez – 6 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 9 baserunners, 6 Ks.  No matter what the Slightly-Less Filthy Sanchez has done recently, I wouldn’t touch him in his next start vs. Philly.

Leo Nunez – 1 IP, 2 ER.  Kazaam!

Coco Crisp – Headed back to the DL.  Hey, Coco felt a pop so I guess that’s cheerio.

Derrek Lee – 3-for-3, 3 RBIs and his 6th homer.  I think I said this last week, but since I don’t remember you surely don’t.  Lee broke out around this time last year.  Cust kayin’ (maybe for the second time).

Clayton Kershaw – 6 IP, 0 ER, 6 baserunners, 4 Ks.  Was a bit touch and go for a little while in April, but Kershaw’s ERA is now at 2.90 on the year.  Sure, the walks are atrocious, but that’s how Kershaw do.

Andre Ethier – Saw that Ethier took BP.  Where, to see the fish they’re killing?

Vladimir Guerrero – 3-for-5, 5 RBIs and 2 homers to bring his season total up to 12.  He’s making the knees he stole from Ron Kovic very proud.

Ricky Romero – 5 1/3 IP, 7 ER, 14 baserunners and 8 Ks.  His K-rate has been terrific so far and he gets the O’s next, I’d hold tight.

Jose Bautista – Hit his 15th homer yesterday to lead the majors.  Can’t wait for the All-Star Game Home Run Derby when Bautista takes on the other major league homer leaders:  Konerko, Wigginton, Jose Guillen, Kelly Johnson, Dan Uggla and Scott Rolen.  That could outdraw the M.A.S.H. finale.

Rickie Weeks – 3-for-5, 2 RBIs and a homer.  Understandable if he was dropped in your league, but Weeks is also one of the streakiest hitters around and this could be the start of something.  Or more bluntly, Weeks streaks.

Billy Butler – 2-for-4 with 2 WTFs (Warning Track Flies).  Hey, Royals, forget investing in free agents just move the fences in 10 feet.  You’re welcome.

Justin Verlander – Makes perfect sense that Verlander K’d 8 Mariners and gave up 5 runs while Fister struckout 1 Tiger and gave up only 2 runs.  Excuse me while I go shove my head in the oven.

Chris Iannetta – Was recalled yesterday.  Iannetta was tizz-errible earlier in 2010, you hurd.  Really bad, and not bad as in good, but bad as in bad.  Yet, he still hit 16 homers in only 289 at-bats in 2009.  Wait, what about Miguel Olivo? Ah, random italicized voice, you had to bring up the elephant in the room.  Olivo doesn’t seem like he’s in the best of shape, but an elephant? Okay, random italicized voice, you interject, we don’t converse.  My bad. As just said, in 289 ABs, 16 homers.  Even with Olivo, Iannetta can get that many ABs.  Olivo and Iannetta can coexist.  In deep, mixed two catcher leagues and NL-Only leagues, I’d grab Iannetta again.

Ian Stewart – 2-for-2 and the two hits were off his old high school teammate, Ian Kennedy.  Elias Sports Bureau said this was the first time two old high school teammates both named Ian squared off in a Major League game.  Actually, they didn’t say that, but something that was overheard recently at the Elias Sports Bureau, “Bobby, from Human Resources, wore a “Glee” t-shirt for a record 10 weeks straight while maintaining his heterosexuality.”