Fantasy Baseball Advice

The Verducci Effect as explained by Verducci, “Pitchers generally feel the effects of abusive increases in workload the next year, not the season in which they were pushed.”  So to avoid this, clubs shutdown or skip young pitchers (this applies to those 25 years old and younger).  In fantasy baseball, lots of championships are won in September, H2H and otherwise.  If you have rookie pitchers, it’s imperative — ooh, strong word — that you pay attention to which pitchers are going to be shutdown or skipped.  Anyway, here’s a list of some pitchers who may be shutdown in September:

Mat Latos – The Padres are playing right now so they can draft Nadir Bupkus in 2010, so there’s no reason to push Latos.

Brett Cecil – At about even with his workload from last year.  Ricciardi will probably put the brakes on Cecil in September, if he can’t trade him for Pujols before then.

Josh Johnson – He’s pitched a lot of innings before, but not last year and he’s already complained of a weak shoulder this year.  I don’t think he gets shutdown, but it might be an acorn to store over the winter in that giant cave of useless facts that sits on your shoulders.

Joba Chamberlain – Already 20 innings over from last year and the Yankees are already skipping him.  “Joba Rules” currently are start every 9th day and give up four runs.

Clay Buchholz – Where there’s a Yankee mention, there needs to be a Red Sox mention.  That’s in the Sports Blog Handbook.

Rick Porcello – He’s already being skipped and will probably get shutdown quick-fast in September.

Max Scherzer – Already flying past his workload from last year.  The only thing that’s keeping his innings in check is his inability to get out of the 6th inning.

David Price – Nice to see he’ll be unusable next year too so I have a reason to avoid him in drafts.

Yovani Gallardo – His jump from 2008 to 2009 will be insane, but in 2007 he pitched almost 190 innings.  So it shouldn’t be until late September when he’s technically in the red.

Brett Anderson/Dallas Braden/Trevor Cahill – Already over their workload from the previous year.  Then again, Beane will probably pitch them through September then trade them for three number one picks.

Tommy Hanson – Has about 30 innings left before he’s in the red.  If you own him, you’re already in the black, your leaguemates are blue and my bathroom walls are eggshell.

Jason Bay has been terrible.  Like Don Mattingly’s wife in a mugshot terrible.  In June, J-Bay hit .230 and 4 homers, but he was hitting the cover off the ball in June compared to July.  In July, he’s hitting .203 with 1 homer.  This month Garrett Jones has hit more homers during REM sleep.  The optimist in me says Bay will hit 15 homers and .300 the rest of the way with ten steals.  The pessimist in me thinks he’ll be benched in favor of Chris Duncan.  The realist looks at all of his splits and sees a guy that has been consistent throughout his career, minus a season (2007) when he was battling knee problems.  The surrealist in me thinks Bay will hit a line drive up the middle that will ricochet off the pitcher and shoot to the 1st baseman who will smack the ball into center, then the ball will slowly roll back towards the infield until God tilts the field and the ball rolls towards the 3rd baseman, but God tilts too far and the field freezes causing the ball to roll back towards the catcher.  In all likelihood, Bay’s 2nd half should be somewhere in the realist realm (though it would be cool if the surrealist was spot-on).  I think Bay can give you 10+ homers, .280 average and a handful of steals.  Right now, I’m actively trying to acquire him in one league.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Erik Bedard – Back to the DL.  In related news, George Sherrill was an All-Star in 2008, Adam Jones in 2009 and Chris Tillman is about to be called up.

Ted Lilly – After he was rocked by the Phils, I said he might end up on the DL.  Lo and behold, voilà, alas, see that, told ya so, etc.  Lilly’s now on the DL.  Will miss about a month.

Kevin Millwood – Left after two innings because of tightness in his glutes.  That never bothered Richard Simmons.

Chad Gaudin/John Lannan – 7 IP, 1 ER, 7 baserunners and 8 IP, 1 ER, 6 baserunners, respectively, with two no decisions.  Watching the Nats and Padres really tested my love for baseball.  I don’t want to test fate for the off chance Tom Paciorek is rehired, but listening to Bob Carpenter and Dibble is like sitting next to Ted Striker on an airplane.

Ryan Zimmerman – Since May when he hit .342, he’s hitting .238 with 5 homers and nary a steal.  This guy has 9 homers and is batting .260.  This guy is Kevin Kouzmanoff.

Everth Cabrera – It was about five games ago, I said I’m selling back all of my old EverCab CDs at Amoeba, now he has 4 straight games with a steal.  SAGNOF!

Kyle Blanks – HR yesterday.  Rudy’s pride and joy now has three homers in the last week (while batting about .240).

Daric Barton – 2-for-4, after he finally did something he left the game with a hamstring strain.  If he were a bigger name, he could have had the lead with the title, Barton Fink.

Dallas Braden – 5 2/3 IP, 7 ER and 16 baserunners.  I sat him in The Jetstream.  I’m going to give him his next start vs. the Blue Jays at home.  If that doesn’t work out, then bye-bye Braden.

Brett Gardner – Headed to the DL with a broken left thumb.  So much for the Fonzie impersonations.

Brett Cecil – 7 IP, 1 ER, 7 Ks.  Sticking with the newly-established Brett theme, Cecil now has three solid starts in a row and gets Oakland next.

Joe Blanton – 8 IP, 2 ER, 6 Ks.  Now has a 2.55 ERA through the last two months.  I’ve been starting him everywhere for the last three weeks in a 12 team league.  I’d own him in a 10 team league at this point.

Julio Lugo – Batting .571 since the trade to the Cards and has a homer and a steal.  Lugo wouldn’t be the first middle infielder lemon that LaRussa turned into lemonade.

John Smoltz – 5 IP, 6 ER.  I know he had a lot of great years.  But your nostalgia is hurting you like when you sneak off into your attic and look at photos of you with your one true love.  Burn the photos, man.  She’s married with kids.

Nolan Reimold – .417 and three steals since The Break.  No idea where this newfound speed is coming from, but he’s capable of a few week streak where he’s ownable in all leagues.

Kelly Johnson – 3-for-4, HR and steal yesterday.  Whatever Yunel was drinking last week, Johnson seems like he’s bogarting it now.

Jason Schmidt – 3 IP, 4 ER.  Yup, sounds about right.

Russell Martin – Hit his third homer yesterday.  He would be leading the league if this were April 7th.

Anthony Swarzak – 6 2/3 IP, 1 ER.  I wouldn’t pick him up with your team.

Seth Smith – 1-for-2, 1 steal.  After being declared the starting left fielder, he didn’t get the start Friday or Saturday.  Obviously Jim Tracy put starting in quotes.

Aaron Cook – 7 IP, 2 ER and the Win.  The third starter I had going yesterday in my crapfecta of pitchers (the other two were Lannan and Gaudin).  As I’ve said (numerous times) before, there is so much pitching out there you don’t have to have the exciting names (Liriano, Ervin Santana, Smoltz, Porcello, any number of rookie pitchers) to be competitive in pitching.  Boring works too.

Justin Morneau – 2 HRs yesterday as he makes his case for MVP.  Judge Grey presiding in the case of Morneau versus the AL field.  Without the runs and A-Rod hanging with Madge, what do you got?  A sucka in a uniform callin’ his shot…

Ervin Santana – 3 2/3 IP, 6 ER.  He’s mocking you now.  You took the flier; it didn’t work.  Let him go.  You’ll feel much better when he’s doing this to someone else’s team.

Gerardo Parra – Rico Suave’s mocking me now.  I held him for so long in a deep league.  Since I dropped him last week (4 games ago), 2 homers, 7 RBIs, 4 Runs and one steal.

Tony Pena Jr. – To go reverse Ankiel on us and become a pitcher.  If you can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em…

On July 16th, Padres GM, Kevin Towers, said there’s a 50-50 chance that Jake Peavy would pitch again. Turned out there was a 50-50 chance that he was lying.  On July 16th, Peavy’s boot came off and his ankle is healthy.  Peavy now says he’ll pitch again this year.  Oh, okay.  Peavy is the Padres ace, i.e., they’re not going to mess with bringing him back to make sure they win 60 games instead of 58. Then consider he’s not coming back until September at the earliest, so you’re looking at a guy that might pitch five games.  As my dead, Jewish grandmother would’ve said, big whoop.  I know it sucks you lost Peavy, but now you’re compounding your misfortune by wasting a roster spot on him.  If you don’t have a DL spot for him, give Peavy the boot.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Josh Whitesell – Will be in this afternoon’s Buy/Sell.  I’ll give you a teaser.  Later on today, I’ll say, “Whitesell doesn’t have…”  Ah, what doesn’t he have?  Power?  A middle name?  Feet?  You’ll have to wait to find out.

B.J. Ryan – Signed by the Cubs.  B.J. becomes a LOOGY.  Hmm… That sounds wrong.

Raul Ibanez – 2 HRs in his first two 2nd half ABs.  In my fantasy baseball top 100 for 2009, I pointed out how he’s a 2nd half hitter (#34 for the time-deprived).

Derek Lowe – 6 IP, 3 ER.  It’s little consolation, but he shouldn’t have given up the three 4th inning runs.  Just bad defense.

Rafael Soriano – Save yesterday.  Soriano’s putting together a year like Waking Joey Devine did last year.  In related news, Gonzalez is battling elbow tendinitis.

Oliver Perez – 6 IP, 3 ER.  Could throw 200 scoreless innings and you’d pick him up and he’d give up 8 runs in two-thirds of an inning for the first start with you.  Guaranteed.

Jeff Francoeur – 0-for-4, 1 RBI in his return to Atlanta.  In honor of Frenchy’s return, Chipper swung at a ball in the dirt.

Cliff Lee – 9 IP, 1 ER, 6 Ks.  Deja vu?  Nope, deja vs. the Mariners.

Rich Harden – 6 IP, 0 ER, 7 Ks.  Since it took the Nats to bring out Harden’s best start in almost a month, I wouldn’t go as far to say he’s back.

Edwin Encarnacion – HR yesterday.  Now has two homers in his last five games.  Might have 10 more homers in his bat for the rest of the season.  At corner, that’s ownable.

Homer Bailey – 5 1/3 IP, 7 ER.  You trusted him, he shit your house.

Jamie Moyer – 7 IP, 0 ER, only two baserunners.  Considering most of you were in diapers when he started pitching, it’s pretty incredible what he’s doing now that he’s in diapers.

Dallas Braden – 5 IP, 6 ER.  You know when you have two or more mediocre starts going and there’s that one critical start that can make or break your whole staff’s night?  That was Braden on a few teams for me (as I had Wolf, Gaudin, Cook and Wandy also going).  With a good start, I could’ve went to respectability and a low 1 WHIP and a mid-2 ERA.  We might need a glossary term for that critical start.  I’ll open it up to the Razzpound for suggestions.

Ervin Santana – 8 IP, 1 ER, 5 baserunners, 1 matchup with the A’s.  There’s worst fliers to take if Ervin’s healthy.  I can’t think of any right now because I’m on some serious cold medicine. (The flu in the summer sucks.  I blame the pierced, Goth kid who sneezed on me at Bruno.  Teach me to leave my office.  Seriously, if I’m dead by Sunday from The Swine, frequent commenter, Mr Baseball, may be doing your roundups.  You’ve been warned.)  I’d pickup Ervin for his next start vs. the Royals, but it’s risky until we see back-to-back quality starts.

Chad Gaudin/Aaron Cook – 11 IP, 2 ER, 16 Ks.  Doesn’t take a ‘pert to tell ya, start anyone in Petco, but Josh Geer.

Ichiro Suzuki – While in St. Louis, Ichiro went to visit the grave of George Sisler, whose single-season hit record Ichiro broke in 2004.  Jose Reyes should go visit the graves of all the fantasy baseball teams he killed this year.

Gordon Beckham, the pride of Surrey, wrote little ol’ me a letter last week.  It went on for three pages and his penmanship left a lot to be desired, but let me share with you an excerpt.  “Hey, Grey, Gordo here.  I’m probably not going to be that great for an extended period of time in 2009.  But I appreciate you supporting my efforts.  Please share with your readers my plate disclipine and above-average speed.  I’m probably nothing more than a doubles hitter right now with the occasional dinger (the word dinger makes me giggle).  I don’t want to toot my own horn (though if I could, I’d never leave the clubhouse), but when you look at other MIs in your fantasy league, am I really that much worse?  As the President of the Debate Club, I once argued in favor of keeping Ben Grieve over Roy Halladay, so what do I know?”  Thanks, Gordo!  I think he covered everything.  At MI, ride the white lightning.  Anyway, here’s some more players to buy or sell this week in fantasy baseball:

BUY

Casey McGehee – When I grow up, I wanna be just like Casey McGehee.  Be touted relentlessly by me and do just okay in the major leagues.  You wanna be fair?  Okay, let’s be fair.  McGehee is a serviceable MI.  He’s not winning you leagues.  But without serviceable MIs, our great sport wouldn’t be nearly as proud.

Martin Prado – I rank them Beckham, McGehee then Prado, in that order.  And that’s me figuring someone’s gonna ask me that in the comments!

Pat Burrell – You would think A) I actually like Burrell. B) He’s done something to warrant being included in back-to-back Buy/Sells. C) There’s no C.  D) Why would there be a D if there’s no C?

Marlon Byrd – He went 22/4/20/.393/2 last August.  When the weather heats up in Texas, the caged Byrd sings.

Chad Gaudin/Kevin Correia – This Hodgepadre of starters are worth owning and starting, at least, at home.

Jason Hammel – He’s the inverse of the Gaudin/Correia daily double.  Start him in Away games.

Dallas Braden – Hasn’t given up more than 2 earned runs in his last seven starts.

Ty Wigginton – Hit a homer two days ago. Exciting, right?  Now what if I told you he just played his fifth game at shortstop?  Ah, now your wheels are turning.

Garrett Jones – A Pirates has-been rookie? Please, Grey, I had Mexican for lunch. I know, random italicized voice.  Not all that attractive.  But in deep leagues, he’s worth a flier to see what he does with playing time.  He can’t be much worst than Delwyn Young.  But Delwyn Young sucks! That’s sorta my point.

Leo Nunez – Owned in 6.7% of ESPN leagues.  That means about 93.3% of ESPN leagues are abandoned.

SELL

Torii Hunter – He’s at 17/13.  He’ll get to 27/22.  My gratutity calculator is telling me if you own Hunter, you’ve gotten more production from him than you will if you continue to hold him. No one’s saying to sell him for Felipe Paulino and an old TV Guide cover with Kermit and Miss Piggy, but I’d explore options.

Daisuke Matsuzaka – Hey, he had a good run.  Not this year.  This year he was terrible.  He had a good run last year.  I wouldn’t own him this year with your team.  If you don’t have room on your DL, lose Dice-BB.

Glen Perkins – No one’s buying Perkins, so this is less a sell, more of an Ignore.  Can’t throw the speedball by anyone.  He could be a participant in my All-Star Game festivities where he faces off against Chris Davis.   The Movable Object vs. The Movable Object.  Whose flaw will be more pronounced?

Vladimir Guerrero – I know in the beginning of the year you Rochambeau’d your buddy to own Vlad, but Guerrero’s being outslugged by Scott Hairston by almost 200 points.  Oh, nuts, Vlad’s bad.  And not bad as in good, but bad as in bad.

CC Sabathia left his start with biceps tightness.  Or is it bicep?  Hmm…  Either way, it’s not great to hear about an arm issue with your fantasy ace.  Right now they’re saying no tests are even necessary.  Give me two hundred CCs of a White Russian and I’m asking this, you pay one hundred trillion dollars for a player and then you don’t send him for tests when he hurts his bicep(s)?  Are they joking?  Seriously, is this Candid Camera?  I thought I saw my Adam Lambert poster’s eyes move.  Is there a camera behind there?  Send me a signal, throw me a line.  Hopefully, tests aren’t necessary because it’s so obviously not a problem.  They don’t need to administer tests for how Sabathia feels about his new home park, The Jetstream.  To the left, to the left… Now, up, baby, up… He has a 3.99 ERA at home and 3.35 away.  His 6 K/9 is more troubling.  That would be the lowest mark of his career.  Even last year in April when he was struggling, he was K’ing more than one batter per inning.  Hopefully in the 2nd half of the year he can rearrange the girth and makes things right.  (Fun with anagrams!)  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Daisuke Matsuzaka – Disgraceful List just got one more as the Sawx made room for Smoltz.  Neither funny nor that insightful, but you’d think there would be some kind of rule by the MLB that teams can’t just DL someone because they’re ineffective.

Ryan Howard – In and out of the hospital with a fever.  Phillies doctors said he’d be fine, he just ate a quart of ice cream too fast and his body temperature was trying to overcompensate.

Carlos Beltran – Going for an MRI on Monday for his knee even though he complained days ago and played on Sunday.  Um, okay.  Supposedly he only has pain when he decelerates abruptly.  Here’s an idea, slide!

Endy Chavez – Out for the season so Transylvania’s favorite son, Wladimir Balentien, should get the starts.  Now the Mariners just need all of their major league and minor league catchers to hurt themselves so they have to play Jeff Clement.

Casey McGehee – HR yesterday.  Has 10 homer power, but right now he’s scorching hot, batting over .400 for the last week.  He’s worth a flier over the schmohawk behind door number 3.  For what it’s worth, last week I dropped Kennedy for McGehee in one league.

Chris Coghlan – 3-for-4, 3 Runs.  According to ESPN, Coghlan’s only owned in 3.1% of leagues.  Actually, I kinda understand that.  In June, he has 1 homer and 3 steals.  Excuse me while I burp.

Don Kelly – 2-for-4 and batting .417 since his callup.  He’s a minor league journeyman who has some light speed.  Not speed of light.  Totally different thing.

Aaron Harang – 7 IP, 3 ER, 7 Ks.  It’s like 2008 never happened.  But, you know what?  I remember it.

David Ortiz – HR yesterday.  Note from the author (me).  This was sent in by a longtime reader, Tarasco’s Secret Stash, “Ortiz’s swing this year has been interesting to watch evolve lately, and it’s finally clicking. Dave Magadan first tried the Drew back-shoulder tap as his first timing correction, but that didn’t really seem to get him out of his funk. Papi was rocking that timing mechanism for a couple weeks in May, until they started trying his current approach, which is much quieter and more vertical. He’s setting his hands smoothly now, Hideki Matsui style, instead of waggling the bat or cocking his wrists, and he’s instead leaving the hands up higher and the wrists more loaded. That’s letting him dip slightly to load his weight back while keeping the wrists much more steady, and it’s keeping his swing plane on the ball better. His hip rotation is still strong, which is the best sign for him going forward. He’s able to turn through balls as well as years past, and he seems to have rediscovered his bat path over the last couple weeks. He’s drilling the ball to left center at Fenway of late.”

Dallas Braden – 7 IP, 2 ER, 6 Ks.  Solid fill-in for this week without Peavy.  I’m sticking for now and going with him in Oakland vs. the Rox in his next start.  If I were feeling particularly lucky, I’d roll the dice with Cahill (vs. SF, COL) or Garrett Olson (vs. Padres, LAD) this week.  I’m not feeling lucky, but some of youse may be.

Wandy Rodriguez – 7 IP, 1 ER, 8 Ks.  The Wandwagon rolls again.

Ricky Romero – 7 IP, 2 ER.  Nice start vs. the Nats.  I’d take a flier on him for a fifth to sixth fantasy starter.

Lyle Overbay – Hit his 9th homer yesterday with 5 RBIs.  You’re showing Derrek Lee and the dealer’s showing Lyle Overbay.  That’s a push.

Khalil Greene – Two games, two homers.  Now that he has his emotional baggage safely stored in his overhead compartment, he’s mollywopping the ball.  Worth a flier for cheap power at your MI spot.

Gil Meche – 3 1/3 IP, 9 ER.  It was the Cards, man.  The Cards.  Pitch around Pujols (who had 6 RBIs in this game).  Pitch. Around. Him.  Come on!

Michael Cuddyer – HR yesterday.  Hitting .444 over his last week with 2 homers, which is also known as Joe Mauer every week.

Geovany Soto – HR yesterday.  Clearly he’s found his power stroke with 3 homers this month, but he’s still batting .238 in June and only has 6 RBIs all month.

Randy Wells – 6 2/3 IP, 2 ER.  Got the Win after 6 starts when he could’ve easily been victorious.  I’m still not endorsing him past matchups and his next matchup’s kinda eh.

Kevin Millwood – 7 IP, 2 ER, 10 Ks.  Finally listened to Nolan Ryan as he emphasized the importance of the K.

Chris Davis – Over the weekend, Davis became the fastest man ever to 100 Ks.  Maybe Nolan Ryan should be careful about to who he’s emphasizing the importance of the K.

Troy Tulowitzki – 3-for-3.  His average has been on the rise all monthowitzki.

Matt Holliday – 0-for-4, batting .269 on the year with 8 homers.  Where’s that blogger/guy/doode who in the preseason said Holliday just needed to get familiar with Oakland then it would all start clicking?  Is he familiar yet?

Jeremy Accardo – Left yesterday’s game after tweaking something on his right side.  Eddie Vedder says, “Jeremy’s broken…”