Fantasy Baseball Advice

Hey, Fantasy Baseball King here.  In “Fire and Ice,” I’ll analyze the past 2 weeks’ performances, and using my best combination of statistical analysis, baseball knowledge, charm, and pure crystal ball wizadry provide you with a plan of action for the coming week.

Fire – But will they stay hot?

Jonny Gomes -  Jonny’s set the baseball world aflame over the past week, raising his batting average from .227 on April 10 all the way to .268 on April 16. During that time span, he also smacked 4 homers, drove in 8 RBI’s, and helped Reds’ fans cope with the thus-far poor performance of Jay Bruce.

Analysis: Jonny Gomes has only had more than 500 at-bats in his career once (2010). In that season, he hit a useful but not studly .266/.328/.431 with 18 HR, 86 RBI, 77 R, and 5 SB. That was good for a 104 OPS+, which is actually less than his career mark of 110. Perhaps he is better suited as a part-time platoon player and occasional pinch hitter, getting 300-400 at-bats per season. Statistically, his best year was 2009, in which he hit .267/.338/.541 with an astounding 20 homers in only 314 at-bats. Notice an outlier there? His slugging percentage was 80 points higher than his career average. Now in 2011, his dash line is .268/.456/.683 (notice that nice outlier again). Of course, it’s early, so not much can be said about ratios. The important thing to do is see why they are what they are. In this case, Jonny Gomes is walking at an incredible 26.3% in 2011. His career mark is 9.6%. What do YOU think the chances are of him keeping this up? If he were 25 years old and coming into his own, I may buy a sudden increase in maturity. But he’s not; he’s 30, and simply put – he is what he is. Look for Gomes to finish  somewhere around what he does every year, and what ZiPs predicted he would – .256/.335/.464.

Fantasy Baseball King’s Bold Prediction: .263, 22 HR, 70 RBI, 60 R, 8 SB

Jeff Francoeur – Ahh, good ole’ Frenchy. Once dubbed “The Natural,” great things used to be expected of Mr. Francoeur. But after 5 seasons in Atlanta, 1.5 in Queens, and a post-season run in Texas, The Natural was finally banished to baseball’s not-so-green pasture, Kansas City. There, he was expected to graze on the tasty grass until he eventually grew old, fell over, and ended up being served for dinner. But as he has done many a time before, Jeff Francoeur doesn’t like being told what he cannot do. Instead, he put together a 6 game hit streak from April 9 – April 15, raising his season batting average to .327 in the process and, once again, forcing baseball’s analysts to take a look and wonder.

Analysis: Oh Jeff, you’re so coy! You’ve done this before, haven’t you? No? Don’t try to deny it…in April, 2010, you maintained a beautiful .886 OPS and smashed 4 homers, and back in 2007 you got that April OPS all the way up to .908 while hitting 5 round-trippers. But in the end, you always end up being nothing more than Fool’s Gold. Why, some may ask, won’t 2011 be any different? Well, his BB rate, for starters, is an abysmal (even by his terrible standards) 3.4%, and his BABIP is .340 (41 points above his career rate of .299). This all but proves that Jeff Francoeur, despite having a broad smile and a rifle of an arm, is encountering a wonderful streak of good fortune. But lady luck won’t have his back all season, and there’s no reason at all to believe his numbers are anywhere near sustainable. They simply aren’t.

Fantasy Baseball King’s Bold Prediction: .273, 15 HR, 75 RBI, 70 R, 7 SB (while still refusing to take a walk)

Alexi Ogando -  “Who?” the common fantasy baseball fan may have asked when first putting together his or her preseason draft lists. A converted reliever, Ogando threw all of 111.2 innings in the minors, but started only 3 games. His minor league numbers were incredible; he posted a 1.37 ERA while K’ing 12.6 batters per 9 innings pitched. Perhaps even more amazing, he did this while walking a measly 1.9 batters per 9 innings pitched. And yet, as relief pitchers often are, he was left off any and all top prospect lists. Still, his talent was obvious, and when the decision was made that Neftali Feliz would remain the Texas Rangers’ closer in 2011, a decision was reached that, if a SP could be transformed into a closer, then surely a RP could become a starter. Preseason predictions are difficult to analyze, as most analysts were betting on Feliz joining the rotation, and Ogando being a member of the Rangers’ bullpen. But the ratio predictions were still good, with ZiPs projecting a 9.15 K/9, 3.05 ERA, and 62.0 IP in relief work. As a starter, Ogando has astounded even his most ardent backers, posting back-to-back stunning performances against the Mariners and Tigers. Through his first 2 starts, he allowed only 4 hits in 13 IP and has yet to give up a run (neither earned nor unearned). Surprisingly, his K-rate has been low at 5.5, but cold weather could be to blame.

Analysis: Alexi Ogando is obviously a very, very talented pitcher. According to the stat-analyst gurus over at FanGraphs, “the 14.4 MPH separation between Ogando’s fastball and slide was the third largest gap in baseball [in 2010].” That brings to mind watching Stephen Strasburg mix in a 101 MPH fastball with a 95 MPH slider and 87 MPH changeup, or R.A. Dickey throwing knuckleballs anywhere from 55 MPH – 80 MPH. But the fact remains so blatantly obvious- this is a relief pitcher who has 3…yes, THREE career professional starts. I foresee the Rangers being very careful with Ogando (although I was surprised they allowed him to go 7 innings in his 2nd start), possibly pulling him after 5 innings in some games “just because,” or even occasionally skipping a start to keep his arm fresh. Whatever they choose to do, they’ll need to do something, as this is a fairly unprecedented decision. Although relievers have been transformed into starters in the past, they have always been eased into the role, not thrust head-first into the fire. Finally, despite it only being 2 starts, there are already signs of danger. His opponents’ BABIP is a miniscule .118, meaning that, although Ogando is indeed pitching well, he’s also enjoying a little bit of good luck. Expect some bumps in the road, but overall a decent season with a fair number of K’s seems to be looming.

Fantasy Baseball King’s Bold Prediction: 10 W, 3.45 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 140 IP, 125 K (Note:  Since this was written, Ogando pitched against the Yankees Sunday night. He went 6.1 innings, giving up 6 hits, 5 ER (including 3 HR), while striking out only 1 batter. The disastrous evening raises Ogando’s 2011 season ERA from 0.00 to 2.33. The Fantasy Baseball King’s Bold Prediction remains the same.)

Aaron Harang -  Blah. Could a more boring name have come up on this list? Well, like it or not, Harang is deserving. Perhaps, though, I’m being unfair. After all, Harang has an above average 102 career ERA+, has won 10+ games 4 times in his career, and was quite durable from 2004 through 2008. But Harang epitomizes the phrase “mid-rotation starter,” and in these days at age 33, that may be pushing the envelope. And yet, there’s simply no denying Harang’s great start to the 2011 season. He’s been simply dominant in a way that he only merely approached in his heyday of 2006-2007. Will it continue?

Analysis:  The much cited ZiPs projected Harang to have a pretty decent season, but nothing particularly fantasy-starter worthy. 8 wins combined with a 4.23 ERA and 7.05 K/9 (original ZiPs pre-season projection) can only get a fantasy owner so far. But with Harang already almost halfway to his projected win-total, I’m seeing 2011 as a mini (and probably last renaissance) for the 33-year-old veteran. Benefiting largely from a .250 opposing BABIP (compared to his career rate of .308), and probably benefiting from getting 2 of his 3 starts against the basically punchless Giants and Astros, Harang is due for a return to Planet Earth. Still, if his health stays strong throughout the season, I foresee him sneaking by those ZiPs projections by just a tad. And after all, pitching in Petco (2 of 3 starts thus far have been at home) for half his starts certainly can’t hurt.

Fantasy Baseball King’s Bold Prediction: 12 W, 3.85 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 175 IP, 153 K

Josh Beckett -  He is no secret to the fantasy baseball community. Having amassed 114 victories since his inaugural season in 2001, he’s been to 2 All-Star Games, finished 2nd in the 2007 Cy Young race, and led the league in wins the very same year. In short, he’s had a great career and several fantasy owners owe trophies due to his exploits. But injuries have often been a problem, and since Beckett became a full-time starter in 2002, he’s hit the magical 200-inning mark only 3 times. 2010 was no different, as Beckett started only 21 games, posting an awful 5.78 ERA along the way. Still, his SO/9 (8.2) and BB/9 (3.2) were extremely close to his career averages, so the fact that his opponents BABIP soared to .338 (career, .294) probably had something to do with the negative results…mixed in, of course, with the injuries. So fantasy owners have every right to keep expectations at bay when Beckett gets off to a fast start. The question will always loom– “When will a blister keep him out for a month?” Nevertheless, it’s impossible to ignore what he’s done thus far. He’s dominating hitters like vintage-Beckett, K’ing them at an incredible 10.35 per 9 IP while keeping the walks under control. His 2nd start of the season was particularly enchanting, as Beckett stepped into the limelight and mowed down 10 Yankee batters over 8 innings pitched, allowing only 2 hits and 0 runs in the process.

Analysis: Beckett is 31 years old, which is smack in the middle of the “end of prime, beginning of decline” period for players, particularly pitchers with injury histories. While it’s difficult to find much fault at all in his 2011 performance, it is necessary to point out that opposing batters are only managing a .217 BABIP against him. When taken in context with his career rate of .294, it’s obvious that Beckett is benefiting from some extra charm. Moreover, his K-rate is at an all-time high and, considering his velocity is NOT, and his control is NOT (3.15/9 walk rate compared to career average of 2.78), something seems amiss. Beckett is due for a regression but, much like Ogando and Harang, should have a good year. Pitching for the Red Sox only helps, of course, and if he can stay healthy, he could even remain dominant…just not Cy Young-quality dominant.

Fantasy Baseball King’s Bold Prediction: 14 W, 3.67 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 165 IP, 156 K

Ice – But will the ice thaw?

Carlos Santana – This was not how Carlos Santana’s season was supposed to start. Entering 2011 as a Top 5 catcher off the board, most analysts had Santana pegged for a huge season. In a 15-10 football-style game opener, the young catcher went 3-for-5 with a homer and 3 RBI’s, making those analysts look very smart. But the heat emanating from Santana’s flame has cooled, and his bat is as ice cold as they can possibly come. After an 0 for 4 performance against the Angels on April 13, Santana officially dipped below the  dreaded “Mendoza Line,” and is mired in a 1 for 7 slump ever since.

Analysis: Young catchers are probably the hardest players to project. Yes, in my opinion, harder even than young pitchers. Not only do they have to learn how to guard the plate, but they must manage each pitcher’s different emotions, approaches, and temperaments, and on top of all that, do something with the bat at the plate. Perhaps that’s why so many top catching prospects (Ben Davis, Jeff Mathis, Jeff Clement to name just a few off the top of my head) fail. But let’s be fair here; Santana’s career is nowhere near its end. It has barely started! The man has all of 246 career at-bats in the Majors now, and in that sample size he’s managed a .244/.374/.416 dash line with 7 homers and 28 RBI’s. Not too bad, especially for a young catcher. Expectations were extraordinarily high, perhaps too high, entering the season. ZiPs had him at .248/.366/.425 with 16 HR, 70 RBI, and 70 R, which would easily put him in the top tier of offensive catchers. On the plus side, his BABIP is a paltry .211, which simply MUST improve, and he’s actually striking out less than ever (MLB and minors included). Remember, he’s also coming back from a horrible season-ending injury from 2010.  His time will come, but it may not be now. I’d expect a definite improvement going forward, but let’s give him at least one full season before dubbing him the 2nd coming of Victor Martinez.

Fantasy Baseball King’s Bold Prediction: .265, 18 HR, 75 RBI, 71 R, 5 SB

Ben Francisco -  From 2007 through 2011, Ben Francisco has played in 373 Major League games, but never accumulated as much as 500 plate appearances in a single season, so he certainly hasn’t been called upon to be an every day player…until this season. With injuries to the Phillies’ starting lineup, Francisco has been a permanent member of the everyday team, and up until recently, had performed wonderfully. In fact, if you had asked me last week, I may have put him in the “Fire” section of this column. But reality has sunk in and Ben has plummeted back to Earth. Since April 8, he’s gone 4 for his last 23 at-bats, all the while watching his batting average sink from .357 all the way to .275.

Analysis: What did anybody really expect? This is Ben Francisco, and there’s a reason he’s always been a platoon player. Now, that’s not saying he’s a bad player. In fact. Ben’s had an above average batting career, cobbling together a lifetime 105 OPS+. But he’s also a flawed player. He doesn’t walk enough to off-set his inability to hit close to .300, and doesn’t have enough power to justify his strikeout rate (2011, 20.8%; career, 20.4%). With Domonic Brown now on the DL, he’ll get continued playing time, and while he’ll have his moments, I wouldn’t expect much. In deep leagues, you could make a case to stash him on the bench for when he gets hot. But he shouldn’t be owned in the typical 10 or 12 Roto leagues.

Fantasy Baseball Kings Bold Prediction: .265, 15 HR, 64 RBI, 58 R, 12 SB

Daisuke Matsuzaka – (2 Starts) 0 W, 12.86 ERA, 2.71 WHIP, 7.0 IP, 14 H, 4 K    Season Stats: Same

I used to live in Tokyo, so the term “Sekai-no aiisu” (Ace of the World) is one I’ve been aware of for quite some time. For now, let’s redistribute that title to Yu Darvish, and instead analyze just what’s happening to the former media darling and big-name starting pitcher, Mr. Matsuzaka. Battling back from an injury in 2010, Matsuzaka’s start to 2011 has been less than inspiring. In fact, it’s been visibly putrid. While going 5 innings and allowing 6 hits and 3 runs in his first start back could have been deemed “passable” considering his injuries, Matsuzaka’s recent performance against Tampa erased all hope that he was back to being Sekai-no aiisu. Allowing 7 earned runs on 8 hits, the former star didn’t even make it out of the 2nd inning. He is now owned in only 7% of all Yahoo public leagues, and perhaps, rightfully so.

Analysis: As a former resident of Tokyo, Japanese language speaker, and having worked for a Japanese corporation, I always take a special interest in the MLB players representing Nihon (Japanese for Japan). But truth be told, Matsuzaka simply has been a bad pitcher since 2009. In Japan, pitchers are overworked, often asked to throw 150+ pitches per game, and undergo full throwing sessions on off days. It’s no wonder then that the aces that do make it here (Hideo Nomo comes to mind) don’t last very long before succumbing to injury or simply failing to be effective. In Matsuzaka’s case, it’s been both. His K-rate has fallen off the map, to the point it’s threatening to go below 5 with another bad start (now sitting at 5.14), and he’s walking over 6 batters per 9 innings. ZiPs had projected a decent, but not great season for Matsuzka, but certainly that he’d at least be able to strike people out (they pegged him at 8.14./9IP) and win some games. There IS a silver lining here. Trust me, it took me a while but I finally found it! Opposing batters are hitting an otherworldly .407 against him with balls in play, something which, I hope, is not sustainable. Still, his career mark is .324, so even if/when it comes down, I’m not sure how much it will change the outcome of his performances if he can’t strike anybody out or stop walking the entire lineup. He had a tremendous amount of talent when he arrived Stateside in 2007. Unfortunately, I’m not seeing much of it left in the tank. Expect a good start here or there, but unless something changes drastically, don’t touch him.

Fantasy Baseball King’s Bold Prediction: 6 W, 4.75 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 135 IP, 98 K (Note:  This was written before his Monday start, but nothing I said changes.)

Francisco Liriano -  Well, it certainly hasn’t been pretty. And yet it we all thought it WOULD be so, so, so pretty. Liriano got some pretty hefty Cy Young support last season, and rightfully so. As such, analysts throughout the land pretty much unanimously pegged him for another big season. The signs of concern should have been obvious to us earlier, though. His September 2010 ERA was 4.59, which ballooned to 4.82 during 2011 Spring Training. But still, we remained optimistic. This was Francisco Liriano! He was supposed to be the next Johan Santana, but got derailed by injuries after his amazing 2006 season (12-3, 2.16 ERA). Still, he battled like a warrior and came back to become a legit frontline starter in 2010. So what’s going on that’s made it so bad that, in his last start, Liriano decided to change things up entirely by throwing underhanded the entire game? Yes, it was admittedly an experiment via the urging of his manager and pitching coach to get his control back, but still…is there any hope?

Analysis: I’m a believer. I’ll go out and just state it. You don’t even need to read the rest of my analysis. . . . Okay, yeah, you should. Liriano is having problems right now, mainly with control. While he’s never been capable of a great Greg Maddux impression, he got his BB/9 down to a very decent 2.72 last year. But now it’s ballooned to 5.65. While his K-rate is still respectable at 7.53, his stuff hasn’t been electrifying enough to overcome his wildness. Now, we’re still not in Oliver Perez territory, so all is well on that front. And now, the flash of light, the hope for you’ve been waiting for—- Francisco Liriano, much like his predecessor Johan Santana, is a notoriously slow starter. His career ERA’s in April and May are 5.23 and 4.75, respectively. After that, June, July and August are 3.27, 2.92, and 3.54. My advice is to sit him until he gets going. Maybe he just can’t pitch in the cold. I don’t know. But what I DO know is that he is still a bona fide stud, and will prove that come the warmer months of the season. Keep with him; you’ll be happy you did.

Fantasy Baseball King’s Bold Prediction: 15 W, 3.38 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 195 IP, 191 K

James McDonald -  A big sleeper entering 2011, James McDonald has made 19 spot starts and appeared in many more relief appearance for the Dodgers and Pirates since he was 23 in 2008. Over that period, he put together a career ERA around 4.00, and struck out about 8.5 batters per 9 innings. He appeared ready for a full time gig after taking over in August 2010. From that point through the end of the season (11 starts), he won 4 games, had 3 starts lasting into the 7th inning, and struck out more than 6 batters 3 times (he struck out exactly 6 batters 4 times). He seemed primed to be a good, middle-of-the-rotation starter. Perhaps nothing special, but the kind of guy who could pull a rabbit out of a hat once in a while and be effective enough to help both the Pirates and fantasy owners. The Pirates have been gentle with him, pulling him after only 4.2 innings pitched in his first start (after 4 hits and 2 earned runs) and trying to ease him into the full-time role. But his next two starts proved to be disasters, and he now enters his 4th start sporting a filthy (not in a good way) 7.47 ERA.

Analysis: McDonald was always known as a strikeout pitcher. Sporting a fastball in the mid-90′s, he boasts 4 minor league seasons in which he K’d over 9 batters per 9 innings. He hasn’t been doing that this year though. With starts so far in St. Louis, Pittsburgh, and Cincinnati, it’s definitely possible that the cold weather is making him either hesitant or unable to throw his best stuff. His career ERA in April (8 games) is 7.80, but in May (5 games), 2.08, and June (3 games), 1.59, so there’s reason here for hope. Of course, it then blows up to 5.40 in July, so I’m not sure that time-based consistency has yet been established in McDonald’s game. Although he’s 26 years old, he’s only thrown 156.1 innings at the big league level, so he’s basically a 2nd year player. I wouldn’t expect amazing things out of him this year, but if you can start him in the right conditions (warm weather, struggling lineups or teams with free-swingers), you may be happily surprised by some nice outings and strikeout performances. Sit him for now until he gets things under control, but don’t jump ship just yet. If he continues to stink through March, put his breakout off another year.

Fantasy Baseball King’s Bold Prediction: 9 W, 4.35 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 135 IP, 98 K

Someone defrost Ted Williams’ head, Jed Lowrie is hitting .516.  If Mickey Rooney were playing the part of Dice-K, he’d say Jed is so Lovrie.  That’s if we can pull Rooney away from pooping in your neighbor’s chimney.  Right now, Lowrie is seasoning up fantasy steaks something delicious, but can this continue?  No, of course not.  Can he hit .280 with 10 homers?  Sure.  Can he get to 15 homers?  Is the moon made of green cheese? (Actually, it is.)  Lowrie has a heart three sizes too big for his body and a thermos filled with spunk.  But spunk’s a category in your league?  Some would find that hard to swallow.  He has little to no speed and, if he slumps for a second, Marco…Scutaro could go back to popping up in the most unlikely places.  But, hey, it’s not like you need much.  Lowrie could be a top ten shortstop with only one good month of stats.  I’d absolutely pick him up but don’t drop a proven commodity.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Daisuke Matsuzaka – 7 IP, 0 ER, 2 baserunners (1 Hit), 3 Ks.  That’s nice, I’m not buying.  If you go with him, you’re rolling the Dice, K?

Jacoby Ellsbury – Hit his 4th homer yesterday as he and A-Gon go on casting calls for the remake to Vice Versa.

Jerry Sands – Called up by the Dodgers because Mattingly used to have a dope ‘stache and he loves crazy women.  Okay, those aren’t related, but I like to think they are in my effort to emulate Mattingly.  Sands looks like another Razzball favorite, the mollywhopping, pony stick-galloping, Mike Stanton.  Just not quite as much power.  Let’s say Mike Stanton Jr.  Last year, Sands had 17 homers in Double-A in half a year (68 games).  This year in Triple-A, he had 5 homers in 10 games.  That’s a yes, please and thank you.  For this year, I’d give Sands 20 homers, .250 average and 5 steals.  There’s upside, obviously, so I picked him up everywhere I could.  (Yes, I’m looking with my stink eye towards Yahoo for not having him in their player universe.  Can they just have everyone in the minors like CBS or only the players on the 40 man roster?  Because this willy-nilly, no one has any idea who is actually in the player universe is lamer than dog balls.)

Jason Heyward – Hitting 2nd with McLouth in the lineup.  You should’ve took the under.

Rick Ankiel – Supposedly, the Nats aren’t happy with Ankiel’s production.  No way!  C’mon, really?  Wow, if they would’ve just read Razzball in March, I would’ve told them to start the season with Roger Bernandina.  Keep your eye on Roger, roger?

Travis Wood – 3 1/3 IP, 6 ER, 9 baserunners, 3 Ks and three first inning runs.  He must be hanging out with Crazy Edinson.

Aroldis Chapman – Returned and threw over 100 MPH.  “Geez, Pa, that’s fast.”  That’s what Steve Pearce said to Lyle Overbay.

Mike Leake – Arrested for stealing $60 worth of t-shirts from Macy’s.  The pressure to keep up with Jay Bruce’s Ed Hardy collection is just too intense.  If a cop sees you take a leak, it’s public indecency.  So what’s it called when Leake takes something.

Tyson Ross – Going from Macy’s to Ross, Tyson Ross would be my choice to take Braden’s next scheduled start on Friday in Safeco.  Ross had a solid spring and almost made the rotation.  So far in Oakland, he has a 10+ K/9, but, as I tell my girlfriends, beware the small sample size.  I like him for a spot start on Friday, if he gets it, then we’d have to take it from there.

Cody Ross – Sticking with the bargain basement Ross theme, Bochy said Belt could be sent down as soon as Tuesday, which is today on your Mayan calendars.  “Don’t stare into the day Wednesday!”  That’s what it says on my Mayan calendar.

Kevin Correia – 9 IP, 2 ER, 6 baserunners, 5 Ks.  Yeah, should’ve drafted him instead F-Her.  Nice!

Francisco Liriano – 6 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 10 baserunners, 2 Ks.  Baby steps, Bob, baby steps.

Adam Jones – 1-for-4, 3rd homer.  There was only one hitter in the O’s lineup hitting over .250.  That’s Brian Roberts at .266.  Member when they were 6-1 to start the year?  They haven’t won since.  Shiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiit!

Sam Fuld – 4-for-4, hitting .396 on the year.

Justin Morneau – Out again with the flu.  Instead of Theraflu, Canadians take Cariflu which is 50% medicine, 50% caribou semen.

Some rejected titles for this post were, “Adam’s Appendix Is Dunn,” “Dunn’s Appendix Chooses Worst Of Three Outcomes,” and “Dunn Develops Killer App.”  First Holliday, now Adam Dunn with a busted appendix.  I heard if the doctor gets cold during the surgery, he’s going to snuggle inside Dunn like Luke did with his tauntaun.  Big Donkey only needs 5 days to heal because he already had an axe scar in that area they could re-use.  The turnaround time is so quick now on these surgeries that you have to wonder why it took the Twins so many years to remove their appendix (Nick Punto).  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Carlos Quentin – 4-for-6, 3 RBIs, 2 Runs and his 2nd homer.  He’s now hitting .500 on the year.  If he can stay healthy, he can have a huge year.  Though that if is the size of Dunn’s appendix.

Juan Pierre – 3-for-6 and his 2nd steal as he was asked to fill-in Dunn’s shoes at DH.  Lucky he didn’t have to wear his pants.

Michael Bourn – Left with tightness in his groin.  Is he now dating Rihanna?

Ubaldo Jimenez – Looks like the pickle juice or whatever medieval cure he was prescribed didn’t work and Ubaldo is headed to the DL until the 17th.  Since he only has a cut on his cuticle, he should be back when scheduled.  If you felt he should’ve been the lead of this post, “Ubaldo’s Hair Today, Gone Tomorrow” is your title.  Maybe instead of pickle juice, he should’ve visited a *pinkie to mouth*  manicurist.

Chad Billingsley – 3 IP, 5 ER, 9 baserunners, 3 Ks.  Now has a 7+ ERA in Colorado over his career.  If you ever see Bills talking to your girl at a bar, order him a Coors and watch him fall apart.

Andrew Cashner – As reported here first after reading it somewhere else, Cashner is going to the DL with a rotator cuff strain.  Tough break strain since he looked good on Tuesday and I was ready to get on board.

Randy Wells – To the DL with a forearm strain.  That’s not good.  Guessing he’ll be out for all of April.  All these injuries made me think of the Cage The Elephant‘s Shake Me Down, “Not a lot of people left around…”  Mmm-mmm… That’s me humming the words I don’t know.  I love that song.

Alfonso Soriano – 1-for-4 with his 3rd homer.  This is also the third time he’s shown up in five roundups.  If you’re gonna own him, right now is the time.

Ryan Dempster – 7 IP, 4 ER, 10 baserunners, 6 Ks.  It took me a few years to fully trust Dempster after he moved to starting.  Now that I trust him, he’s going to employ his parachute as he watches me crash to the ground.

Brad Lidge – Charlie Manuel said Lidge should be back around the All-Star break.  His exact words were, “Lidge an ornery spitfire who wants to go piking by July.  Now where in my overalls did I put that straw I like to chew on.”

Jarrod Saltalamacchia – Word is the Sawx are giving Salty until June to hit.  They’re obviously more patient than me, I’m giving him until next week.

Willie Bloomquist – 2-for-5 and his 5th steal.  Emilio Bonifacio called, he wants his crazy fast April start back.  Potatoes to chips, if Bloomquist was doing this in the middle of the season, you wouldn’t even know about it, unless you were Willie Bloomquist Jr. and your dad forced you to watch all his at-bats.

Stephen Drew – Plans to return to the starting lineup on Friday.  My anticipation level for Drew’s return is above my next visit to the dentist but way below when Dustin reveals on The Real World to his roomie/girlfriend that he used to do gay porn.

Yunel Escobar – 3-for-3 when he had to be lifted because of dizziness.  He was waving air into his face and jumping up down and I thought Travis Snider farted in his direction, but I think it happened on Yunel’s headfirst slide.  Not sure, I’m not a doctor.

Austin Jackson – 0-for-5.  I’ve been saying he’s not that good since last year and it looks like he’s finally coming around to my way of thinking.

Ryan Raburn – 1-for-2 as he snuck onto the field in Boesch’s jersey.  Geez, what did Raburn do?  Complain about Leyland smoking in the dugout?

Alex Avila – 3-for-4, 5 RBIs with the very rare slam & legs from a catcher.  Despite having such a good night, Miguel Cabrera is hesitant to hang out with Alex Avila because of his initials.

Armando Galarraga – 7 IP, 4 ER, 7 baserunners, 5 Ks.  Eh, I’d give him a stiff-Armando off my team.

Joakim Soria – 1 IP, 4 ER.  In the offseason, he abandoned his nickname, The Mexicutioner.  He didn’t mention he was adopting the nickname, The Mexican’t.

Jeff Francis – 6 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 9 baserunners, 4 Ks.  I’d wait to see 30 more starts from him before picking him up.

Alex Gordon – 2-for-5, 1 RBI including his 5th double.  Yes, you should pick him up.

Carl Crawford – 2 Hits, 2 steals and 2 for flinching when Francona threatened to bat him 7th again.

Daisuke Matsuzaka – 5 IP, 3 ER, 9 baserunners, 2 Ks.  If you’re new to the site, I don’t think Dice-BB should be owned in any league that, ya know, wanna win.

Kevin Correia – 7 IP, 0 ER, 7 baserunners, 3 Ks.  Now is 2-0 with a 1.38 ERA on the year.  Of course, he’s pitched better than most of the pitchers on my fantasy teams.   Why do you hurt me so much small sample sizes?  That’s what she said!  (Not really.)

Neil Walker – 2-for-5 with his 2nd homer.  Then there’s the other side of the small sample size coin.  You wanna believe so bad early hitting stars will hit .400 and homers every other day, but you know it won’t last.  Or at least you should know, unless you suffer from delusional fantasies.

Alberto Callaspo – 2-for-4, 2nd homer and hitting .450 on the year.  I’m the first to think he’s Callaspoo, but he’s hitting, so, yeah, grab him for your MI spot.

Mark Trumbo – 3-for-4, hitting .286 so far.  He’s played in 5 of 6 games, but hasn’t hit for power yet.  But II, The Return of But, he could start hitting for power.

Erick Aybar – Strained oblique.  In your face, intercostal!

Tim Stauffer – 4 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 10 baserunners, 1 K.  Hodgepadre:  Start in Petco, don’t get them wet and don’t, under any circumstances, feed them after midnight.  So who feed Stauffer after midnight?

Nick Hundley – 1-for-3, HR.  Not sure how much you need a catcher, but Hundley’s the Padres best hitter right now.  I know how sad that sounds.

Ryan Howard – 4-for-4, 2 RBIs, 2 Runs and his 2nd homer.  He’s now batting .524.  Yeah, he looks done.  Glad some ‘perts were ranking him in the 4th round.

Jose Contreras – Got his first save and received a 35% off discount at the movies.

Mike Pelfrey – 2 IP, 6 ER, 9 baserunners, 1 K as he couldn’t keep the bats off the Pelfrey.  I wouldn’t own Pelfrey with your team.

Tim Lincecum – 7 IP, 1 ER, 3 baserunners, 13 Ks.  He made the Padres hitters look even worse than they normally do!

Brian Wilson – 2/3 IP, 3 ER.  Returned and looked like he shouldn’t have.  Hopefully it’s just him brushing the cobwebs off the gimp outfit.

Edinson Volquez – 5 IP, 4 ER, 10 baserunners, 8 Ks and the conshellation prize.  Frequent commenter, Eddy, brought up an interesting stat, Volquez’s first inning ERA is 31.50, the rest of the way (8 IP) 2.25 ERA.

Ian Desmond – 4-for-5, 2 RBIs as he may have just cemented himself back in the leadoff spot.  This is why you don’t overrate 5 games of play.  Or a week.  Or a month.

John Buck – 2-for-4, 3 RBIs and a triple.  I’m guessing here but I feel like Buck gets more triples than any other catcher.  That Buck is a hustler!

Mike Minor – 4 1/3 IP, 5 ER.  Getting roofied by Minor and I feel like how Jeffrey Jones looks.  Oh, well.  He was probably only up for one start.  I’d lose him for now.

Jeremy Hellickson – 5 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 8 baserunners, 10 Ks.  I try and stay away from AL rookie pitchers, but let’s remember some stuff I said in the preseason… You know, six days ago.  I said Hellickson would win the ROY and I dropped this Hellickson fantasy on ya.

Manny Ramirez – Maddon sat Manny because he was pressing.  Surprised no clouds formed when Manny’s warm air pockets of pressing met with his cool air pockets of indifference.

Almost a 11 K/9 in the minors is, uh, Mike Minor.  He major, Kanye.  I hope Roberto Kelly doesn’t come back to visit the Braves because when R. Kelly sees a minor, urine trouble!  So should you play some Gary Glitter if you’re lusting after this Minor?  In 118 2/3 IP this year, he has 144 Ks and 44 walks.  Hello, beautiful.  Want me to continue?  Of course you do.  You’re greedy.  In Triple-A through five starts, his ERA is 1.99 while rocking a .171 BAA.  He probably only has around 7 starts left in his arm this year before the Braves shut him down, but that’s all right, no one has many starts left.  Minor’s a must grab in NL-Only and keepers.  In mixed leagues, I’d grab him for his first start vs. the Astros, then go from there.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Kris Medlen – Medlen’s donezo.  Shut it down, Kris.  He’s about to.  Medlen’s headed for TJ surgery, which is when six drunk frat boys give a horse tranquilizer to– Wait, checking notes.  Ah, that’s Tijuana, not Tommy John.

Kevin Youkilis – Out for the season.  You kinda knew this was coming.  What can you do?  Put on a potato sack and walk into traffic?  Sure, but after that?

Carlos Delgado – He’s got suitors.  Right now, his Mom’s fielding calls while he tries on dresses.  Who really wants to take Delgado’s I-haven’t-played-in-two-years virginity?  Wouldn’t be surprised if he lands with one of the Sox.  Red would be my guess, but the White ones might pull it out.  Means nothing unless he gets hot and you’re crazy desperate.  He’s old and rusty right now.

Jason Bay – Reportedly not close to returning.  That’s more good news from Bay.

James McDonald – 6 IP, 0 ER, 5 baserunners, 8 Ks.  Not that long ago, I liked McDonald.  Then the Dodgers diddled him as they’re wont to do.  Now he’s in the Pirates rotation and there’s no reason they shouldn’t throw him out there every fifth day.  McDonald should K around 8 per nine.  (In the minors, he had a 9+ K-rate in his career.)  His walks can get wonky, but in deep leagues, he’s definitely worth a look.

Joaquin Benoit – 1 IP, 2 ER.  I haven’t had room for many MRs this year.  Been chasing too many saves.  Two days ago, I found room on one team for Benoit.  He had given up only 3 earned runs the entire year.  Until yesterday.  When I was picking up Benoit, a little old lady walked passed my window chanting “Flores para los muertes.” I should’ve known it wasn’t a good sign.

Jhoulys Chacin – Returning to the Rockies rotation.  He’ll be in this afternoon’s Buy/Sell.  You can hardly wait!  Yes, you can.  Or can’t.  Whichever one makes more sense.

Roy Oswalt – 6 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 7 baserunners, 5 Ks.  What’s red, gray and all over the strike zone?  Oswalt.  Against a more patient team this would’ve been a very ugly start.  Cust kayin’.

Daisuke Matsuzaka – 8 IP, 1 ER, 7 baserunners, 6 Ks.  It was against the Indians, I shouldn’t have to say more.

Nyjer Morgan – Hits the DL with hip pain.  He hurt it falling on one of Ronnie’s grenades.

Ryan Zimmerman – 2-for-4 with two homers.  After the game, the press couldn’t wait to talk to him about Strasburg.

David Murphy – With Vlad resting for the playoffs just about every other game, Murphy has seen a decent amount of time lately.  In the last ten games, he has three homers and two homers in back-to-back games.  He has 7 homers right now.  I wouldn’t be surprised if ended the year with 15 homers.  He doesn’t face many lefties, so you’ll have platoon him into your fantasy lineup, but I like him.  If it makes you feel better, I grabbed him in one league.

Adrian Beltre – 1-for-4 with his 20th homer and 75th RBI as he bats .336.  How’s this for a nickname for Beltre?  The Contract Killer.

Mike Gonzalez – Came in the 8th inning, gave up a single to the lefty Abreu and was promptly lifted.  The problem, if there is a problem, is Buck Showalter might see Mike Gonzalez and think he’s a LOOGY.  Sometimes old school managers see a lefty and get confused.  For further discussion, see Bobby Cox’s handling of Gonzalez.

Nick Markakis – Sparkakis!  He actually leads the major leagues in doubles which makes me think he might be a sleeper next year.  Doesn’t change how terrible he’s been this year though.

Max Scherzer – 7 IP, 2 ER, 7 Ks in a no-decision against the White Sox.  Don’t look now but that’s 11 straight starts where Der Hurler has thrown at least 5 IP and given up no more than 4 runs.  His WHIP will be high until he gets better control but he’s a good option if you need K’s (nearly a K an inning this year).

Kevin Slowey – Masterful for 7 innings against the Rays (0 ER, 2 baserunners) then ol’ Gardy brings him out in the 8th only to give up an Upton HR then load the bases so Mahay can give up a pinch-hit grand slam to Jason Bartlett.  I can picture every fantasy owner seeing him come out for the eighth saying ‘Nooooooo!’ in slowey-mowey.

Russell Martin – Sounds like he’s done for the season.  Too bad, so sad.

Bobby Jenks – You know Ozzie couldn’t have been happy when Jenks gave up a 3 run lead by giving up a two out, 3-run HR to Ryan Raburn.  When Ozzie confronted him about it, Jenks pissed him off further by getting into a sumo wrestling pose instead of donning a mask and putting on tights.

Kila Ka’ahiue – The Good Eyein’ Hawai’ian got himself a place to play.  The Royals traded him?  Nope.  That crazy guy who wanted to kill Matt Stone and Trey Parker put a jihad on the Royals and took over their team?  Nope.  The Royals designated Jose Guillen for assignment.  Holy shizz balls, the Royals are making sense!  Member two months ago when I sat behind you at your computer and kept buzzing you with an electrical current to pick up Ka’aihue?  Don’t make me do it again, my electric bill was outrageous.

In a year where umpires like Joe West and Bill Hohn are doing all they can to show they are far from perfect, Jim Joyce went one step further by having his imperfection blow someone else’s perfection.  It’s like that O. Henry short story where the poor wife cuts off her hair and sells it to buy him a pocket watch accessory and the husband laughs at her bald head.  For all intents and purposes, Armando Galarraga pitched a perfect game yesterday.  The Governor of Michigan is declaring he pitched a perfect game.  Unfortunately for Galarraga, the Governor’s previous proclamations that ‘Detroit is the pearl of the Midwest’ and ‘Kid Rock is STD-free in my book’ were never accepted by the tourism and medical industries so it’s unlikely MLB will honor her request.  Who I really feel bad for?  Harvey Haddix.  Now he has to share his asterisk.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Chipper Jones – Glass Chipper left the game with an injury.  Shocker!  No way!  C’mon!

Derek Lowe – 8 IP, 1 ER, 7 baserunners, 7 Ks.  Came into this game with a 4.86 ERA and guess how many wins.  Go ahead, I’ll wait.  Nope, higher.  Higher still.  No, not 30.  Lower.  No, not 29!  Came in with 7 wins.  Now has 8.  While I have guys like Jonathan Sanchez with 3 wins and a 2.90 ERA.  Why can’t I ever get any good Win karma?

Josh Beckett – Will have his rehab slowed for 10 days while they figure out how to fix his delivery.  Probably will push his return date back about three weeks, at least.  If you have room on your DL, I’d continue to hold him since it’s not an injury, it’s a brain fart.

Vladimir Guerrero – Day-to-day as he left practice with a left eye injury and went to the hospital.  Last athlete that happened to was Andre Rison.

Miguel Olivo – Out until Friday with a broken fingernail.  Last athlete to miss time with a broken fingernail was Michelle Wie.

Kevin Gregg – Gaston said Gregg would get off Wednesday.  Maybe he saw he ordered The Spice Channel… Oh, “get off” as in rest.  See, misread that.  If there was any doubt that Gregg’s still the closer, Frasor and Downs did what they could to confirm it yesterday.  Frasor didn’t record an out, walking Upton then Downs gave up a grand slam to Crawford.  It seems appropriate that the less Gregg pitches the better his hold on the closer job becomes.

Kevin Slowey – 7 IP, 1 ER, 6 baserunners, 3 Ks.  Sticking with the Kevin theme, Slowey actually made it out of the 6th inning.  Wonders never cease.  Wasn’t a particularly dominating performance against a poor offense in a pitchers’ park.  He gets the Royals next, so last night’s start might’ve been a ploy for him to build trust so he can crush your hopes and dreams next time out.

David Price – 8 IP, 0 ER, 9 baserunners, 3 Ks.  I see your hot hitting Blue Jays and I raise you an ace in the making.

Daisuke Matsuzaka – 6 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 10 hits, no walks, 7 Ks.  The time before, 8 walks and 1 K.  That Dice-K always finding ways to keep his WHIP obscene.  There’s absolutely no consistency with Dice-K, which makes it impossible for me to recommend him.

Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks – 2 straight games scoreless after nine innings.  I understand the World Cup is right around the corner, but why are they playing soccer?  On Tuesday, Kemp scored in penalty time.  Yesterday, the Dodgers won 1-0 again.  Is it the LA Galaxy vs. the Arizona Borderjumpers?  Next thing you know, LA will be trading for (Gordon) Beckham.

Carlos Monasterios – 5 IP, 0 ER, 2 baserunners, 3 Ks. Worth a look in NL-Only leagues, but he’s a Rule 5 guy and his stuff only looked good yesterday because of the Diamondlacks.

Garret Anderson – 1-for-6 as he bats .157.  Many a great OF has returned to his original city to play his last year or two for another team in the same city.  Babe Ruth playing for the Boston Braves.  Willie Mays for the New York Mets.  Hank Aaron for the Milwaukee Brewers.  Garret Anderson for the Los Angeles Dodgers.  It’s like a Mount Rushmore of outfielders if Teddy Roosevelt were replaced by Chester A. Arthur.

Edwin Jackson – 9 IP, 0 ER, 6 baserunners, 6 Ks.  Only Dodger player to get a hit on Edwin was Jamey Carroll.  Edwin was featured in the FIP post in March that said you shouldn’t draft him, then he was featured again in the FIP post in May that said he should be better.  Now he’s pitching as he should be?  Well, not quite, but he should still be a 4 ERA guy and he’s over 5.

Gavin Floyd – 2 2/3 IP, 6 ER, 11 baserunners, 1 K vs. the Rangers, not a good road hitting team.  Nothing says I hate your freakin’ guts like a pitcher who pitches well in two straight starts then does this.  This is the kind of start that makes me want to avoid him completely.  Or break his kneecaps.

Paul Konerko – 3-for-4, 4 RBIs and 2 homers to bring his total up to 16.  Feels like he hasn’t hit one in a month.  Cust kayin’.

Wandy Rodriguez – 5 IP, 1 ER, 8 baserunners, 8 Ks.  He needed 115 pitches through 5 innings, so I wouldn’t go as far as saying Wandy is back.  It’s a nice sign in the right direction.  Unfortunately, he gets the Rockies in Coors next, so any forward momentum on the Wandwagon may be short-lived.

Jorge Posada -1-for-3 as he returns from the DL to DH.  Symmetry, I know.  The Great Gazoo will see the majority of the starts behind the plate since Posada still can’t catch.

Robinson Cano – 3-for-4 with his 12th homer.  You know a guy is having a special season when he goes cold, as he did in May, and is still hitting .373 on the year.

Chad Gaudin – The Yankees signed Gaudin.  While it’s understood that a bullpen facing a major crisis would turn to Gaudin, you’d expect the Evil Empire would find someone more fitting like Mephistopheles McMoneybags or Vinnie Yonkers.

Ken Griffey Jr. – Retired today – as in the ‘I’m going to retire and not playing any more’ vs. ‘I’m going to retire to the clubhouse for a nappy-poo.’  He leaves the game as the best all-around CF since Willie Mays, the best all-around ‘Kid’ since Billy, and the best Ken Griffey since Ken Griffey.

John Axford – Got his third save.  As Trevor Hoffman buries his head in the sands of time, Axford is quietly walking away with the closer job.  This thing isn’t figured out just yet, but for now own Axford and Hoffman.

Adrian Gonzalez – 4-for-6, 4 RBIs and his tenth homer.  Would love to see this be the start of one of his crazy homer binge streaks.  That is all.

Clayton Richard – 6 IP, 1 ER, 8 baserunners, 5 Ks.  I joke around about hodgepadres, but you guys (and three girls — hey, ladies!) do realize the Padres have a 2.56 ERA at home, right?  Across all of my teams, I own every single hodgepadre at least once.  Ya’ll should too.

Jose Contreras – 2/3 IP, 1 ER.  The Phillies said Lidge will be returned to the closer role any day now.  Since Contreras came in two consecutive games that were not save situations, I’d say Lidge’s time is very soon.  (BTW, the monthly look at all closers is coming this afternoon.  No, you can’t wait!)

Jayson Werth – 1-for-3 as he hit leadoff.  When reporters asked Charlie Manuel why he batted Werth leadoff, he said, “Look, if I’m going to fall off the turnip truck, I’m going to bring some turnips with me and fashion a turnip gun out of the tailpipe.  And as any good turnip marksman will tell you, you’ve got to fire off a few stray turnips before you’ve hit your target.  Any more root vegetable queries before I hit the showers?”