Fantasy Baseball Advice

In his first major league start, Max Scherzer didn’t look like Jobacum, Linecum and Joba’s love child, just a nervous rookie pitcher. You see a lot of unearned runs and you think to yourself, “Leave it to the Baby-Backs to fark up my man Jobacum.” Yeah, that was a gift by the official scorer. That call could’ve went either way and I think it probably should’ve been a hit. So the ERA should’ve been higher. Balls were hit hard. To paraphrase Randy Jackson, “He didn’t look so pitchy, dawg.” With just 119 1/3 innings last season and Doug Davis set to press him for his rotation spot when he returns, Scherzer probably won’t stick in the rotation. Doug Davis is far from a sure thing, but Scherzer’s innings are really the concern. I could see Scherzer put into a long relief role within a month to make sure Jobacum doesn’t blow his load. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday:

Johnny Cueto - C’mon, he looks ridunkous. Are you kidding me? 41/8 K/BB. That’s nasty. Seriously, that alone is really all you need to know. I’ve watched him pitch every game and that number is not misrepresenting anything. When I was watching him today I realized something, the batter knows what’s coming and still can’t hit it! (Sorry for the exclamation point, but I felt it was necessary.) This is tremendous. The only thing stopping him is a manager that won’t want to drive up his innings…. Oh, wait, Dusty’s managing him. Okay, so don’t draft him in 2010 when he has 700 innings on his arm.

Geovany Soto - Got a hold of one off of Soto. I still say to trade him if you can get the right deal.

Brad Hawpe - Two home runs now in three days. Still wouldn’t start him against lefties. That’s why you carry Spilborghs, whose porn mustache should have its own harem, on your deep league roster.

Eric Byrnes - You’re wondering why he’s slumping so bad, then you realize last year was the outlier (Word of the Day). He has a .267 career average. He is what he is, but he’s not what he was last year.

Chad Billingsley - I keep pimping him and I keep getting questions, “Should I trade Arod, Magglio and my son’s college tuition money for Cliff Lee?” Cliff Lee’s masquerading, Billingsley is not.

Andruw Jones - He’s batting seventh and platooning within The Pierre Situation™. He’s really not on anyone’s team anymore, is he? I mean, he’s no longer even running balls out. I predicted he’d be retired by the age of 35. I might knock that down to 33. He’s gone from Hall of Fame talk to I Wish Pierre Was Starting Instead of Him talk in a little over two years. Torre needs to go Full Metal Jacket, “I’m going to rip your balls off, so you cannot contaminate the rest of the team! I will motivate you, Andruw Jones!”

David Ortiz - So I, like, traded Ortiz for Cliff Lee and I’m, like, wondering if I did good. People need to chillax with burying Ortiz. Sure, he’s probably a few years older than Miguel Tejada who’s probably a few years older than he’s now owning up to, but Ortiz will be fine.

Joey Devine - Waking Joey Devine has three wins on the year and he’s the setup man in case Huston Street keeps blowing saves.

Daisuke Matsuzaka - The walks will come back to hurt him at some point. Probably will have an ERA of 4 by the All-Star break.

Wladimir Balentien - Wlady B. hit his second home run.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia - God, his last name is a real pain to spell. He DH’d today. If he’s getting in there when he’s not catching, there’s no reason why he shouldn’t be owned in shallow mixed leagues.

Ervin Santana - Probably could have pitched into the tenth inning if he was needed. 38/9 K/BB and he just keeps looking better.

Brandon Wood - First home run of the season. Loved to see him get some time, but right now there’s no guarantee of that.

Shane Victorino - Member last week when he was sitting in favor of Werth? He didn’t sit today. Or yesterday. Or the day before. Or the… Well, you get the picture.

Matt Kemp - Third home run. He doesn’t get to twenty.

Matt Joyce - Was called up as the Tigers designated Jacques Jones for assignment. Joyce has some pop against righties, and can strikeout with the best of them. Of course, he’s not in Yahoo anyway. I’m going to write an E-Book, “Fantasy Baseball Sites Need Ten Things.” Players available on waivers is numero freakin’ uno. I don’t even want to pick up Joyce, but this is really annoying.

Wow, that’s an exciting title, huh? I’m sure it will be a big seller for Google searches. Right after the search bukkake + carved pumpkin faces. Whatever, it’s boring to talk about fourth starters for your fantasy baseball team, right? What do Oliver Perez, Randy Johnson, Aaron Harang and some other schmohawk who didn’t pitch well yesterday have in common? They didn’t pitch well. Jair Jurrjens and Shawn Hill did. I’ve touted Jurrjens and Hill in the past on this site. Search on the left if you don’t believe me (it hurts that you don’t believe me, but I’ll get over it). I’m not even sure how to spell Jair Jurrjens’s name half the time, but he’s on a lot of my teams. Why? They’re both cheaper than dog balls to acquire and will put up decent numbers. Jurrjens gets the Padres next time and Hill gets the Astros and Cassel. If you need to Mapquest your way to your waiver wire, do it. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday:

Shane Victorino - The Flying Hawaiian is now the The Benched Fourth Phillie Outfielder™. Heffin’ hey, take Jenkins out of the lineup! Werth has looked the part of starter thus far, but Jenkins? Can I have “Has-Been Players” for one hundred? He is to Milwaukee what Luis Gonzalez is to Arizona. Who is Geoff Jenkins, Alex? Anyway, Victorino’s got too much to offer to be a bench player, he’ll be back in there. Werth’s a six hole hitter (which Jenkins is too) and Victorino’s a one or a two. It’ll all work itself out. Say Victorino doesn’t start for two weeks then he gets what? Four and a half more months to play. He can still get to 15/40. He only played in 131 games last year and he got 12/37. Patience is key.

Chase Utley - I misspoke when I said Chipper’s going to be the Player of the Month. I hope Phillies fans don’t throw any batteries at me now.

Kevin Kouzmanoff - Looks like he just needed some razzing to get going. Actually, he hit the home run off Jamie Moyer, who I believe is a grandpappy, so we probably shouldn’t start giving ourselves a reacharound just yet.

Jon Herrera - The new Rockies 2nd basemen as Barmes takes over for Tulowitzki. Herrera’s minors numbers look, well, minor. By ‘minor,’ I mean don’t even bother picking him up.

Jonthan Sanchez - I like him, don’t get me wrong, but his K/BB ratio is not good. He’s liable to have some tough starts ahead.

Austin Kearns - Some how he ropes me every year. I will never tout him again. Please remind me if I ever forget this. Besides never performing well something else that bothers the popcorn out of me — he never seems to care. I officially hate Austin Kearns. Somebody should start austinkearnssucks.com. I have my hands full.

Conor Jackson - Another home run; he can get to 25.

Nick Blackburn - Twins always seem to farm usable pitchers, some times great ones. Blackburn seems usable, not great.

Carlos Quentin - Seven home runs and counting. How about you give me your login and I pick up Quentin for you?

Nick Johnson - Okay, this is uncanny. Nick Johnson after a 3-for-3 game — Nick Johnson after an 0-for-4 game.

Mark Grant - Who? The retired pitcher/Padres announcer. Why? Cuz he’s got a stalker.

Felipe Lopez - Belliard hasn’t had an official at-bat since April 20th.

Travis Hafner - Hafnot wasn’t even starting against Washburn. The same Washburn who Hafnot has lifetime’s numbers of .400/3/7 in 20 at-bats.

Franklin Gutierrez - The Big FraGu is 9 for 20 on the homestand.

Russell Martin - Home run, but more importantly getting rest from catching by playing third base. He probably won’t get position eligibility at third in most leagues and it doesn’t really matter. You want him at catcher anyway.

Micah Ownings - He hit a pinch hit home run! But I didn’t see because they like everything big in Texas, including commercials.

Randy Johnson - Just a bumpy beginning in what was an otherwise decent start.

Xavier Nady - I told you in the first three days of the season to just pick him up. Nady finished April with 26 RBIs while batting .337. I’d say unload him for someone more trustworthy, but I can’t imagine anyone’s actually buying into this.

Alexis Rios - As member of Da Razzpound pointed out yesterday, he’s been leading off, which would hurt his RBIs. But it’s not going to stay that way. He’s the Jays best hitter. You don’t bat your best hitter leadoff then Rolen third. I mean, this isn’t the Red Sox or Yanks lineup we’re talking about, the Jay aren’t that deep to be batting Rios leadoff. Again, patience.

Dustin McGowan - He’s not out of the woods yet, but getting into the eighth with only one walk is a great thing, know why? Cause now he has some value for you to trade him.

Daisuke Matsuzaka - Another guy that had a good start, that I’m not going to get behind. (Frankly, I have a hard time getting behind any American League pitchers, especially ones in the AL East. But I digress.) You can trade him and still be a Son of Sam Horn, they don’t check your teams for Sawx, do they?

Josh Hamilton - Weird how smack and crack are used for both the sound the bat makes when hitting the ball and for drugs.

Brian Bannister - He got smoked by Josh Hamilton.

Derrick Turnbow - Six runs in two-thirds of inning is the kind of middle reliever hit that really hurts. It was a bad situation with the game out of hand. He shouldn’t been in there, and hopefully you didn’t have him in there.

Wladimir Balentien - Rudy just picked him up in one league. Hey, ya’ll, Rudy knows what he’s doing. At the age of 24 in Triple A, Balentien’s numbers were 77/24/84/.291/15. Look at those numbers again. You’re welcome.

Adam Lind - This is who I added in a deep league. Numbers, please… .378 career OBP in almost 1400 at-bats minor league at-bats. Last year he received almost 300 at-bats from the Jays and hit 11 home runs with a putrid OBP. The fact that the Jays called him up already and have been starting him tells me they are committed. He’s, as they say, a flier. I kinda like Balentien better, but I thought I’d spread the Razzball love.

Casey Kotchman - His average isn’t as much a fluke as you might think. He still won’t hit 30 home runs.

Jeff Clement - Eligibility count: 1 game at catcher.

Dioner Navarro - He got 2 RBIs; Salty didn’t play.

Chad Billingsley - I liked him coming into the season. Still do. A pitcher with his stuff, in his division, in his park, it’s almost not fair.

John Smoltz - He says he will come back as a reliever at least initially. I say, he’s not going back to starting. This also takes the shine off of Acosta and Rafael Soriano. Smoltz will get the bulk of the saves.

Max Scherzer - In his relief appearance, Jobacum left without a stain. Now he’s getting the start over Edgar Gonzalez on Monday for his first major league start. Too bad he’s not on the Rangers, then there could’ve been a battery of Jobacum-Salty. For next Monday’s start, I guess we’ll have to settle for Jobacum discharging the Phillies.

1 game requirement leagues rejoice! Alex Rodriguez replaces Jeter and gets shortstop eligibility! Too bad it’s probably not going to happen. Girardi said it hasn’t even been discussed, no matter how alluring Ensberg would be at 3rd. Oh, well. We can dream, right? Anyway, here’s what I saw yesterday:

Johnny Cueto - He left down 2-1 and he still looked as impressive. 8Ks against zero walks is the makings of a great pitcher. The Bill Hall homer was a no doubter, but the first run was all Adam Dunce’s fault.

Jimmy Rollins - Left the game with an ankle injury, but he should be back in the lineup tomorrow.

Jair Jurrgens - He didn’t look bad considering Kelly Johnson’s got the range of a one-legged turtle.

Oliver Perez - Dude looks good. 18 wins and 200Ks? Looking like it could happen.

Matt Garza - Headed to the DL. He’s got some kind of radial nerve damage. If you have him, I’d grab someone, maybe…

Brian “The Brain” Bannister - He looked unhittable when facing Arod. Against everyone else? Hittable.

Mark Reynolds - I’m fingercuffed and it feels so… eh.

Joey Gathright - Absolutely no one’s team should be lagging badly in steals if Gathright is sitting on your waivers.

Dice-K - Well, I don’t have him on any team, but he looked as good as last year’s advertisement.

Detroit Tigers - The city is a slum that should be condemned; the team looks worse.

Yorvit Torrealba - Doesn’t look good.

Justin Speier - Hafner just made Shields the interim closer.

Miguel Tejada - I told you he’d be pissed off that people were mentioning ‘roids and his name.

Joey Votto - Yesterday, Dusty said this, “You know Votto’s going to have more power and productivity, but, right now, Hatteberg is a better hitter.” Then he plays Votto and he goes 2-for-3. The eff I know what’s going in Dusty’s mind.

Eugenio Velez - This guy’s like Chone Figgins’s faster brother. He tried to turn a single up the middle into a double, deciding very late to stay at first, then he stole second, then he ran to third and was thrown out. He’s like a black Forrest Gump. Tim Flannery, the Giants third base coach, needs a sign that reads, “Velez, stop!”

Jake Westbrook - Pitched another good game. You never know where a career year might come from.

You’re so lucky there’s an extra day in February or this post would have had to wait until March. We’ve already ran through the rest of the top outfielders for 2008. Today we look at the rest of the top pitchers. These are the pitchers that I usually draft. I love Peavy and Santana this year, but I won’t have them, unless they fall to me. By fall, I mean late second round. They’ll be lots of value from them, but pitching is too unpredictable and way too easy to patch together decent enough stats. If you draft Santana with your first round pick, who will be your second pick Carlos Lee? Mark Teixeira? Eh, these names don’t excite me enough in the 2nd round to forgo a hitter in the first. I’d prefer to take a Verlander/Haren-type a little later on.  Solid number one starter, but not a first rounder. Anyway, if you want to look at the 2008 Player Rater that was put together by our very own, Rudy Gamble; click here. If you’d like to look at the top twenty projections for every other position; click here. Now, without further ado, your top starting pitching for 2008, rankings 21-40.

21. Javier Vazquez – Vazquez had the best ’07 season you didn’t know about. (If you did know, then jump ahead, I wouldn’t want to bore you.) 3.74/1.14 with over 200 Ks in ‘07. He finally returned to his former Montreal glory. And, yes, that is the only time Montreal and glory have ever been used in a sentence. Projections: 17-7/3.50/1.15/200

22. Scott Kazmir – Purposely left Kazmir off my top twenty, cause I don’t want any starter sporting a high WHIP. Now there’s word that he has arm problems. That article is a press release filled with optimism. Aside, aren’t all injury articles press releases? Aren’t you sick of this? Reporter, “How does the arm feel?” Athlete, “It’s a little sore, but I’m going to be fine. The doctor said that I should be back on the field in seven to ten days.” Is there anyone left that speaks the truth? Stop with the press-release tone! But I digress. Maybe Kazmir’s injury is nothing, but here’s something, why would you risk it? Pitchers with arm problems in spring training are a caution flag. Do yourself a favor, don’t draft a pitcher with a spring training arm injury. Projections: 14-8/3.75/1.30/210

23. Daisuke Matsuzaka – His division is ridunkiculous with offense. The last pitcher I drafted from the AL East in any league, I believe, was Roy Halladay in ’06 and that turned out vaguely crappy. If you can get excited about Dice-K, I’m assuming you’re a Son of Sam Horn messageboard poster. His best quality (which, all snark aside, is actually a really good quality) is his durability. Projections: 17-7/4.00/1.25/200

24. A.J. Burnett – I know; I keep preaching safety first. Avoid injury problems. Yes. And that’s true. But this whole next tier of pitchers has question marks. A.J. is the most predictable when he’s healthy and even his injuries are predictable. There’s safety in that. Projections: 14-8/3.85/1.20/170

25. Brett Myers – I’m not too concerned about the inexplicable bullpen move last year. Can’t be great for his arm to go from 200 innings to 100 back to 200, but Myers seems like too much of a total doucebag to let it bother him too much. Maybe he slows down in August, but by then you’re trucking towards first place and there’s some spectacular call-up that can replace him for a start or two or three. Myers has my full endorsement. Projections: 16-7/3.75/1.28/175

26. Pedro Martinez – It’s with great regret that Pedro places no higher than 26th. He was absolutely incredible when I was in my twenties and now, well, we’re both getting old. I miss the old Pedro like I miss the old me, or the newer me. Alas… Projections:12-5/3.30/1.15/160 in 140 innings/24 starts.

25. Francisco Liriano – Heffin’ hey, he’s back! At least according to the stock press release-type articles being written. I’m not drafting Liriano in any league. It’s too fast, too soon. If you’re feeling lucky go to Vegas, if you want to play fantasy baseball, skip Liriano. Projections: 10-3/3.15/1.05/150 in 120 innings/20 starts.

26. Yovani Gallardo – I’ve detailed how you should avoid 2nd year players if at all possible (hitters or pitchers). YoGa has a good offensive team behind him or I would have clumped him down with Lincecum. (Instead, Lincecum will be clumped with Sheets. Which we’ll get to, sorry, I was being premature.)  Projections: 14-8/3.50/1.20/180

27. Ian Snell – I enjoyed a good season from Ian Snell last year, but, no matter how it played out, he always got a little roughed up. Whether it was Paulino dropping a pop-up or if he gave up a home run, Snell got rattled. He’s another year older and I think he can get better in ’08. I’d draft him with confidence. Projections: 12-9/3.60/1.20/200

28. Chien-ming Wang – Wang’s even a little too safe/unexciting for me. It’s hard to find fault with drafting him. He proved last year he doesn’t need to strikeout hitters to be effective. I do kinda worry when someone can’t strikeout someone out, but wins are wins and his ratios aren’t bad. Projections: 18-8/3.75/1.25/100

29. Tim Hudson – Boring, right? Yeah, he is a boring pick. Boring wins titles! Besides, I wouldn’t draft the next three pitchers on any team. Projections: 15-8/3.70/1.25/135

30. Matt Cain – Yes, he’s the opposite of boring, but his team’s offensive standout is Aaron Rowand.  His stuff is filthy; I’ll give you that. His division’s All-Stars probably would lose at least one game to the Taiwanese Little League team. His ballpark is ideal for a pitcher. Yet, he has too many games where he gives up six runs in five innings. He’s young still and he walks too many people. Maybe next year… Projections: 11-9/3.90/1.30/190

31. Tim Lincecum – Tim over at Roto Authority has a man crush on Lincecum like I have on Michael J. Fox. I think you’re asking for trouble if you draft Lincecum. As is my policy, second year players provide too much risk.  Taking a second year player on the worst offensive team is additional risk. Will he try to do too much? Will hitters catch up to him? Let it play out on someone else’s team. Projections: 10-7/ 3.75/1.25/170

32. Ben Sheets – Ugh, I wanted to just leave him off the list to prove a point, but he’s got great stuff. Unfortunately, you can’t draft him. He’ll make you miserable. If anything, let someone else draft him, then, after the second injury, trade Nick Punto for him and hope for a good September. Projections: 60-Day DL

33./34. Derek Lowe/Brad Penny  – See Hudson, Tim. (I could see one of you schmohawks commenting below that Lowe/Penny doesn’t get enough Ks to win titles or something like that. Penny/Lowe’s your third starter. Try and draft safety with your third starter and you’ll be in the hunt for a title in September. Draft Lincecum with your third starter and you’ll be in fifth place wondering where you went wrong.) (Penny note: I’m aware of his splits, but simply trade or apply caution in the second half.) Projections for both: 15-7/3.90/1.30/140

35. Ted Lilly – I almost tossed Lilly into my Penny/Lowe daily double, but he doesn’t have the advantageous pitcher’s park. Not to mention, there’s no weather in LA, when Wrigley’s blowing out, you want no part of any pitcher. That’s a headache I try to avoid. Projections: 16-8/4.20/1.20/160

36. Chad Billingsley – While your leaguemates are drafting Lincecum and Cain, I give you my approval to draft Chad late. He’s young and he’s a bit wild. Two things I usually avoid, but his team will be a lot better than the ‘Aints. That’s a confidence builder. With Grady Little, one of the worst managers of all-time (him and Jim Tracy were vying for top spot) gone, there’s reason to think Torre’s inheriting a future Cy Young. I’m thinking it, at least. 16-7/3.20/1.30/190 in a 180 innings/27 starts

37. Kelvim Escobar – I see Kelvim turning up on a lot of draft rankings for 2008. Yeah, see, the thing is, he’s missing all of April. That’ll turn into the All-Star Break, then he’ll return in August for the stretch run. Pretend like you have an idea of the haps and don’t draft him. Projections: Nothing yet, but maybe I’ll remind you in August to pick him up. If you’re good…

38. Adam Wainwright – Perfect example of why you avoid 2nd year players. His 1st half  was horrendous. Unusable. His 2nd half was great. I know he’s not as exciting as Cain or Lincecum but here’s someone who can actually help your team. Projections: 12-7/3.20/1.30/160

39/40. Phillip Hughes/Homer Bailey – Just give them a year. That’s all I’m asking. They might be good, but you don’t want any part of the other side of the coin and you have to draft them too early. Wait, ‘til next year and everyone’s excitement for these two is gone, then pounce. I repeat:  They might be good. The problem is they might be bad. If you want risk, have casual sex with a prostitute. Projections: 12-7/4.00/1.30/140

Your Bonus, you’re welcome:

41. Dontrelle Willis – Usually when pitchers go from the NL to the AL, their value takes a hit (literally!), but Dontrelle’s got some things going for him. His delivery is convoluted, he’ll have lots more run support and he won’t have to worry about hitting anymore. That last one seems like a bad joke, but he really did take his hitting seriously, a little too seriously, to the point I’d wonder if he cared more about that than pitching. I could see Willis getting back some value he’s lost over the last two seasons. Just don’t expect pre-06 numbers. Projections: 16-9/4.15/1.35/180