Fantasy Baseball Advice

Curtis Granderson looks like the same hitter he was last year. Just without the luck. He had a .391 BABIP last season. Whoa, Grey, those numbers scare me. Grab your blankie, and listen. I’m trying to educate you. Razzball Point Shares ranked Granderson 73rd overall. Baseball Prospectus put Granderson’s 2008 projections at 88/21/80/.267/15. They were admittedly being generous. They did not rank him in the top ten for outfielders. Adam Dunn is ranked tenth. Granderson’s speed and power will remain, but those home runs and steals may come at a price. If you could trade him for Vladimir Guerrero or even Corey Hart, I would do it. I don’t think you can get, say, Johan Santana. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday:

Eric Gagne - Backne into the closer’s role. How far has he fallen? When he closed it out, Shouse was warming up in the pen just in case. I’m positive Gagne’ll blow another save by this time next week. If you have room, hold onto Torres or Mota.

Edinson Volquez - He fell into some trouble in the fifth and looked like he was getting frustrated even when he was getting some good calls by the ump. *I’m going to write this next part before the Reds go to bat in the fifth with Volquez due up third* Volquez is removed for a pinch hitter and finishes the game with 95 pitches thrown. A great start again from Volquez, but his temperament when he started to walk people in the fifth should be watched. *Okay, I’m going back to real time.* OF COURSE, HE’S BATTING IN THE BOTTOM OF THE FIFTH. Hey, Dusty, Mark Prior called, he wants his arm back. Luis Gonzalez just singled to leadoff the sixth. Why is Edinson starting an inning when he’s at 95 pitches and his top of the fifth was a very stressful inning? I hate Dusty. Well, it ended up okay, although Jacobs hit a long fly ball to the warning track to end the inning.

Jeff Keppinger - The knee bone is connected to the… Oops. Drop him in all leagues. People probably aren’t even reading this, unless it affects them, so I’m talking to the former Keppinger owners. I feel your pain, man! *manly pat on your shoulder* He was having a very solid MI season for NL-Only. I know, I had him. This injury kinda killed me. Who I’m looking at for replacing him: Vizquel, Cedeno, Hairston, Amezaga, Izturis and Bruntlett respectively. Not a noisemaker in the group.

Khalil Greene - Hit another home run. I have this theory that all mulatto children are attractive, so I’m going to assume Khalil doesn’t have any coffee in his cream. Just not sure where the name Khalil comes from.

Ryan Garko - The entire Tribe team is too talented to struggle offensively forever.

Matt Joyce - Took Greinke deep. He could be some cheap power.

Ronny Paulino - In NL-Only leagues, he’s getting a bulk of the starts because Doumit is headed to the DL.

Kevin Slowey - I’ve already mentioned how I’m not a huge fan of AL pitchers, but Slowey is one I like.

Jo-Jo Reyes - When Hill went down, I said Jo-Jo was a good possible replacement. He pitched better than his four earned runs. Howard hit him hard, but not much else. Also, no walks.

Jeremy Guthrie - Another starter I pegged to look at to replace Hill. He beat the Sox with solid Ks.

John Maine - Ya’ll know how I feel about Maine. I did rank him fifteenth overall for starting pitchers.

Zach Greinke - Labored a bit in this start, but made the big pitches when he had to. BTW, this was against the Tigers, the team that was pegged coming into the season as the ‘27 Yankees. Even though sportswriters say that shizz every year in March about at least three teams.

Edwin Jackson - Since we have on our throwback jerseys, the Yankees look like the ‘86 Angels minus the pitching. I can’t imagine Girardi is thrilled with this group. Jackson looked good again. He was a great prospect and he’s still very young (24). I think you absolutely have to give him a shot at this point. He should’ve got the win if it wasn’t for Percival, who surprisingly wasn’t on the ‘86 Angels. It just feels like it.

Jered Weaver - The one-hitter left Ozzie Guillen with no one to kiss.

Eddie Guardado - Those saves vultures out there might want to look here, especially after the poundings CJ Wilson took the last two times out. If he gets roughed up like that a couple more times, Ron Washington may open up the “Conventional Baseball Managing for Dummies” book and pitch a righty in the ninth.

Stephen Drew - Since my trade of Shawn Hill for Stephen Drew was turned down faster than Eckstein trying to buy beer, Drew’s gone 6/2/7/.333.

To protest a trade or not? Hmmm… How about, do you have a vagina or not? I keed. I’ve protested trades in the past, but I’m a convert. Now I believe everyone is entitled to manage their teams any way they’d like. If someone wants to trade Prince Fielder for Nomar, that should be protested, but only because the Fielder owner is obviously a drunk and needs a Dylan McKay-like intervention. But 99% of trades should be allowed with protests simply used to protect the integrity of a league. When someone makes a trade you don’t agree with, you can bitch and moan, but it’s their team. What else are you going to do? Tell them to drop Matt Morris for Scherzer? Tell them Cristian Guzman may not be the best utility guy? You can’t manage their team for them, so why should you be allowed to tell them who to trade?

I’ve never traded Asdrubal Cabrera for Matt Holliday to a foreign exchange student who thought fantasy baseball in some way involved girls. Yet I’ve been on the veto side of quite a few trades. It sucks, especially when you know you’re getting vetoed simply because you’re in first place and you’ve just made your team better with a completely fair trade. Last year when I got Reyes for Vlad, protest flags flew immediately. Was the trade in my favor? Well, I try not to do too many trades that aren’t, so, yeah. Was it completely lopsided and shouldn’t have been allowed? The guy needed an OF and I needed steals. When I traded Vlad, he had 11 home runs, 46 RBIs and was batting .355 through two months. Unfortunately (for the other guy), Vlad ended up hitting just 16 home runs the rest of the way, but that’s not my fault. That’s my good fortune. The trade went through and I won the league partly because of it.

In related news in the life of Grey (cuz you care!), there was a trade in my ‘pert league that sent Johan Santana to a team for Granderson and Ervin Santana. I was the first person to post a message on the board. I wrote, “Seriously? No… Wait. Seriously?” My “Seriously” soliloquy sparked a controversy, or I was simply the first person to see the trade and comment. Either way, the ‘perts came out blazing. I don’t think it’s my place to list the parties involved or what was said exactly, but I’ll give you the gist:

“This is collusion!”
“How dare you, sir? Collusion would take me actually knowing someone else in this league!”
“Collusion – delusion. It shouldn’t be allowed.”
“My good man, I made the trade and I think it’s fair.”
I chimed in again, “I just thought it was a bad trade on (the team owner who gave away Johan)’s part, but I never thought collusion. Honestly, I don’t even think there should be a protest option. If someone wants to do trade, they should be allowed.”
“Yeah, the trade sucks. But I guess there was no collusion.”
“Yeah, no collusion. Just a bad trade.”
“I still think the trade should be overruled because the trade sucks.”
This last part I will post directly what was written because it made me laugh, but I won’t mention the owner (but he’s free to chime in the comments). “I will weigh in a say that the trade is lopsided, but every deal is. Hey, if (the owner who got Johan) thinks he got a good deal and is happy with that crap for Johan Santana, then (the other owner) needs to be a car salesman! I’ll go on record right now and say Ervin Santana and Curtis Granderson are not going to be the answer (the new Granderson owner) is looking for. And, when it is all over, he will have traded the top pitcher in all of baseball for a SP with a 3-year average of a 4.84 ERA and a .263 OPP BA and a hitter that nets you about a .280/.344/.496 line with 35 steals. Hardly worth it! Oh, just because your child wants to walk into on coming traffic, doesn’t mean you let him for the betterment of society. Trades have a veto button for a reason. Most of the time people need to be protected from themselves more than they want to believe.”

So there’s the gist and a decent argument in favor of the protest button. I disagree with most protests (this crappy trade included), but there ya go. You can accuse us ‘perts of a lot of things, but dispassionate should not be one of them.

On each Sunday (it was Friday, but it is what it is, so deal) we’re going to try and answer your 2008 fantasy baseball questions. Is this every fantasy baseball question we receive? No, but it’s a few of the better ones that were emailed directly to us at info[at]razzball.com. So if you want some fantasy baseball advice that can’t get answered in the comments section, then there you go.

QUESTION:

I’m in a 10 team 5×5 league with a 1400 inning max for pitchers. I am currently in second, but sitting next to last in RBI’s and K’s. I’m hoping Howard will step up and give me some RBI’s soon. Someone is shopping Verlander right now. I need to get rid of some offensive players and pick up more pitchers, but the waiver wire is pretty sad. Do you have any suggestions?

SP Peavy, Jake (SD)
SP Zambrano, Carlos (CHN)
SP Wood, Kerry (CHN)
SP Vazquez, Javier (CHA)
SP Volquez, Edison (CIN)
RP Rauch, Jon (WAS)
RP Wilson, C.J. (TEX)
RP Percival, Troy (TB)
P Wellemeyer, Todd (STL)
Bn Wolf, Randy (SD)

C Doumit, Ryan (PIT)
C Soto, Geovany (CHN)
1B Howard, Ryan (PHI)
2B Upton, B.J. (TB)
3B Gordon, Alex (KC)
SS Furcal, Rafael (LAD)
LF Lee, Carlos (HOU)
CF Young, Chris B. (ARI)
RF Quentin, Carlos (CHA)
IF Morneau, Justin (MIN)
OF Figgins, Chone (LAA)
OF Markakis, Nick (BAL)
Util Blalock, Hank (TEX)
Bn Crosby, Bobby (OAK)
Bn Kemp, Matt (LAD)
Bn Young, Michael (TEX)
Bn Young, Delmon (MIN)
DL Westbrook, Jake DL (CLE)
DL Victorino, Shane DL (PHI)
DL Gwynn, Tony (MIL)

RUDY’S ANSWER:

Given you could only use 5 starters, there has to be someone with 7-8 good starters, no?

I’d definitely pick up Verlander. That’s going to require a big chip. My recommendation is Furcal. I’m a big fan of his this year but 1) you’ve got Michael Young and 2) you’ve got more than enough speed. The difference b/w Furcal and Young when you factor out speed isn’t very big.

You may want to scan the rest of the teams to see who is weak in speed and strong in SP. Furcal should fetch a good 2nd tier starter. You may also want to consider another power bat, if you can’t find a starter to plug in at OF or UTIL. If you could get the same deal for Figgins or Victorino, I’d do that instead (I like Furcal better than those two.)

QUESTION:

I could really use some help with one of my teams. It’s my highest stakes team and probably my most disappointing to date. I feel a bit outclassed to be honest. It’s a 13 team, 5×5 mixed non-keeper with OBP instead of BA.

TEAM’S JPG

Obviously my most pressing needs are SB and SV. I could use runs too but that’s usually a byproduct of the steals. My starting pitching is kind of thin/injured after trading Snell for Valverde (thanks for the advice on that by the way. i’m feeling good about Valverde’s last 2 outings, and finally a 1-2-3 yesterday), so I’m thinking of trading a little power or obp for steals/runs.

Anyway, I’ve been offered two trades from the same guy. Granderson for C.Pena and Broxton, or Cano for C.Pena. Pena’s value obviously goes up a bunch in this league, as he goes from a likely BA killer, to a neutral OBP. I like the cano deal but it doesn’t solve my problems. I think if I got Granderson, I’d be content with my speed situation, but I really hate moving broxton. He has no one else I really want other than Percival and Wood, which he wants too much for. I might be able to add Maine for Percival but I don’t even want to do that, do I?

Who are some good targets for me to go after? And who do you think are good players for me to trade away? Having Wheeler and Qualls (and Reyes and Pena are FA), I’d feel a lot more comfortable getting Percival or Lyon than someone like Wood, as someone owns Marmol.

Anyway, sorry that was long winded, but any advice at all would be much appreciated. I’m not panicking, especially with my #1 pick struggling, but I definitely want to address my needs. Thanks, guys.

RUDY’S ANSWER:

I’m not a huge fan of Granderson and don’t think he’ll ever be a major SB contributor (maybe 30?) as he doesn’t have that instinct. Kinda like Bernie Williams. But Carlos Pena and Broxton isn’t that big of a price given that OFs are more valuable than 1B. I’d prefer to hold tight and see how the Flyin’ Hawaiian recovers….

Cano for C. Pena doesn’t help you on speed but would definitely help upgrade the offense you get out of MI. Based on preseason Point Shares, I’ve got Cano being more valuable than Cano but that is based on AVG vs. OBP. I’d say it’s a toss-up. Remember that even if you’re not particularly weak in categories, any opportunity to improve nets you points.

I wouldn’t sweat saves. Looks like based on the other team totals that you’re not the only one scrounging. Valverde would help. Maybe Corpas comes around. Hopefully you snag another anointed closer. You can always make a trade in July/August if it isn’t working out.

Otherwise, I think your team is in pretty good shape. Can’t think of anyone I’d particularly target for acquisition or trading. But any trade that makes you stronger helps…

Frankly, I don’t want to waste too much space with this topic. I told readers since January to avoid Granderson and as recently as two weeks ago that you can get greater safety and value with Abreu. I’m not claiming to be Nostra-dumbass and saying I saw Grandy about to be beaned by some crap Phillie pitcher (and, besides Hamels and Myers, they’re all crap). Grandy strikeouts out too much; this is well documented on this site and others. But when I say ‘Granderson’s injured, now deal,’ I don’t mean trade him away. I mean emotionally deal. Boo-freakin-woo, you were the one that drafted him in the third round when you should’ve been grabbing Rios or Markakis. What you should not do…

Trade away Granderson. You’ll never get full value for him right now. Will his hand heal properly? Well, he struck out in the boatloads before, I can’t see an injury to his hand helping, but his speed will still be there when he returns. I see no reason why you still can’ get 17/30. Was it what you were expecting? Maybe not, but it should’ve been closer to what you were expecting. If anything, it’s a buyer’s market. See if the Grandy owner in your league will give you him for Marmol and Accardo or some other trade where you’re treating the Grandy owner like some pig-tailed girl. That’s right; now is the time to buy low on Granderson or wait out this setback.

(NOTE FROM GREY: Last week I sent out feelers to the top baseball team blogs to see if they would be generous enough to write a quick preview for their favorite team. So over the course of the next two weeks, mixed in with your daily fantasy info, you will get some of the most astute, in-depth coverage of teams around the major leagues for the upcoming 2008 season from the people that know these teams best. Each post will include a link to their site, please take time to visit these bloggers’ sites, because these posts are truly the tip of the iceberg for their team knowledge. Now enjoy the 2008 Detroit Tigers preview.)

Detroit Tigers general manager Dave Dombrowski wasted no time in working to get his club back into the playoffs in 2008. After Detroit’s surprise run to the World Series in 2006 and disappointment in missing the postseason in 2007, Dombrowski did not even wait for the Boston Red Sox to lose the rosy glow of their championship before he completed his first acquisition of the offseason. Trading two major-league-ready prospects and a young center fielder to Atlanta, Dombrowski brought Edgar Renteria to Detroit so he could move shortstop Carlos Guillen from shortstop — where he was a liability — to first base — where he should be able to hold his own. But that was just the start. While his next move brought Jacque Jones from Chicago to platoon in left field with Marcus Thames, giving the Tigers quite a bit of production at that corner, Dombrowski’s acquisitions at the Winter Meetings in December fired a shot across the bow of the elite teams of the league. A little prodding by one of Dombrowski’s assistants revealed Florida would entertain a trade of superstar third baseman Miguel Cabrera to the Tigers, so long as A-list prospects Andrew Miller and Cameron Maybin were shipped to southern Florida. A little bit of negotiating by the sides resulted in former Cy Young candidate Dontrelle Willis‘ name being mentioned as well. And in just a day, young stars Cabrera and Willis were headed to The D, while fans of the Tigers’ minor league organization were left scratching their heads
wondering who remained. It was clear: the Tigers are being built to win now. With Willis’ contract already extended and Cabrera’s agent currently discussing a deal with the Tigers, winning for years in the future may not be out of the question either. In a short two months and some-odd days, the Tigers announced to the league they were an elite team.

The offense is compared to the great Yankees’ Murders Row — but that might be getting a bit too excited. Some analysts believe the Tigers could join the rare air of scoring 1,000 runs in a season. That, too, may be getting a bit too far ahead. But no matter, Detroit should have the best offense in the American League Central Division and quite likely the major leagues. If Gary Sheffield is able to come back from minor shoulder surgery and pick up near where he left off last season, the Tigers could expect to score 900-plus runs for the year. Sheffield will hit third in the lineup, just behind 20 double, 20 triple, 20 home run and 20 steals center fielder Curtis Granderson and the patient, high-average hitting Placido Polanco. Behind Sheffield will be 2007 A.L. batting champion Magglio Ordonez, with possible future Hall of Famer Cabrera falling all the way to fith in the batting order. He will be followed by Carlos Guillen, Renteria and at eighth, a Pudge Rodriguez who claims to be looking for more pitches this year and benefitting from a tough offseason workout. Jones or Thames may help set the table at ninth. For left-handed pitchers, this lineup is a nightmare. But with high OPS posted against righties from top-to-bottom as well, Detroit will score its fair share of runs this season.

The defense may not be the best in the league, but it should be good enough to give the Tigers a shot to win on most days. Justin Verlander leads the rotation, followed by Kenny Rogers, who hopes to come back from an injury-plagued year, Jeremy Bonderman, who also hopes to come back from an injured pitching elbow that caused his ERA to skyrocket in the second half, and some combination of Dontrelle Willis and Nate Robertson. Willis will boucne back from a disastrous 2007 in Florida, as he no longer needs to be the ace and does not have to rely on pinpoint placement of the baseball — which he did not provide in 2007 anyway. Robertson, too, hopes to bounce back from a season that saw him placed on the disabled list for fatigue. Obviously, the Tigers must have a healthy season from four of the five starters if they hope to compete at the highest level, as the minor leagues provide little depth and little trade bait.

Relief pitching has been the spring training story to watch — aside from the Brandon Inge saga, which will be detailed later in this story. Todd Jones feels he does not have the strength in his arm he needs. As a closer, he frightened Tigers fans already. If he cannot serve up anything but gopher balls, Detroit will need to make a move fast. Setupman Fernando Rodney will start his season on the disabled list as he struggles with tendinitis. The other setup man, Joel Zumaya, required surgery on his throwing shoulder after a box fell on it while he helped his father move valuables away from their house as the San Diego fires approached. He hopes to be back by midseason and appears to be progressing well toward that goal. This leaves Detroit manager Jim Leyland scratching his lighter to find late-inning pitching. Denny Bautista, acquired from Colorado in the offseason, may help. He is known for his control issues, but has so far appeared to have put that past him in spring training. The final bullpen spot may go to Aquilino Lopez, or it may go to Yorman Bazardo, who is also sore this spring. The lefty relievers will be Tim Byrdak and Bobby Seay, who both had fine showing in 2007. Meanwhile, Jason Grilli and Zach Miner appear to be the long relievers, though Leyland at one point thought Miner could be a closer.

In the field, Detroit looks be have broken even with last season, or improved slightly. Cabrera is a step back from Inge’s terrific third-base defense. But Renteria should be a step above Guillen, who consistently suffered from sore knees and could not make the plays he could in his earlier years. Guillen has played first before — including during the 2006 postseason run — and should provide as good or better defense than Sean Casey did in 2007. Gold glove second baseman Polanco did not make an error in 2007. The outfield is led by Granderson in center field. He should receive gold glove looks. Just tune in to SportsCenter to see why. Left field and right field are nothing special, but Thames/Jones and Ordonez are at least capable.

The Inge soap opera will be one to follow this season. He neither wants to provide the role of super sub, which he can do quite well as a guy who can play 8 positions, nor does he want to backup Rodriguez as catcher. He asked for a trade, then backed off that, though the Tigers are currently looking for a deal that would benefit both Inge and themselves. That may come closer to the trade deadline as a contending team might find itself in need of third base help. Until then, fans hope he remains quiet and does what is asked of him.

In summation, this is a team capable of winning the World Series in 2008, but due to its age and lack of depth could be a disappointment as well. As long as it only absorbs one or two key injuries during the course of the season, it should return to the postseason in any case, where anything can happen.

Some Tigers to think about in your fantasy draft:

Miguel Cabrera — third base — He should actually not see dropoff, as Comerica Park has become a much more hitter-friendly ballpark. He’ll score runs and have plenty of RBI opportunities, as well as hit his 30 homers.

Carlos Guillen — shortstop/first base — he will play first base this season, but he should remain eligible for shortstop in most leagues and provides a decent start if you miss out on the top tier performers at the position.

Magglio Ordonez — Probably — OK, honestly won’t — can’t repeat his 2007 season, but he should hit for average, drive in a good number of home runs and get gobs of RBIs in a lineup you can’t pitch around him.

Curtis Granderson — I wouldn’t take him too early, but if you are a manager who likes to platoon, put him in your lineup any day the Tigers play a right-handed pitcher and you’ll get great performance. Probably not 20 triples this season, but plenty of steals and runs to go with a decent number of home runs and RBIs.

Pudge Rodriguez — In all reality, you don’t want to grab him as your starting catcher at this point in his career. But if you’re looking for a backup with some potential to surprise, I think he will improve over his 2007 season. He believes he can continue catching for a few years, and he will be a free agent after this season. He has something to prove, and I for one think you don’t bet against him.

Justin Verlander — Not a top tier starting pitcher — he doesn’t get enough strikeouts for that — but he’ll get his 17 or so wins and post a low WHIP and ERA.

Jeremy Bonderman — In the leagues I’ve participated in, he has gone way too late. If Bonderman has come back from his injury healthy, and that does appear to be the case, he’ll have near 200 strikeouts again while posting an ERA around 4 and at least 15 wins.

Dontrelle Willis — Take a late-inning stab. I think he’ll surprise you.

Denny Bautista — Could get some holds, should be available in the last round if you need that stat, and if he has found his control, could end up closing if Jones falters due to his age.

Kurt runs Mack Avenue Tigers and, inspired by writing this piece, wrote a piece that looked at the fantasy prospects for every player expected to make the Tigers’ 25-man roster.