Fantasy Baseball Advice

Some of you will be drafting your fantasy baseball teams over at ESPN and that’s cool.  I don’t mind their drafting and league setups.  Plus, they’re free.  If you don’t like your team, do like 98% of the other people at ESPN and abandon your team in May.  But when you’re drafting at ESPN, you’re confronted by their rankings.  It’s important to know what they’re saying, so you can exploit the rankings for your greater good.  I’m going off my top 100 for 2010 fantasy baseball and top 300.  So here’s some random turd nuggets from the ESPN 2010 fantasy baseball rankings:

Carl Crawford – 8 at ESPN, 19 here.  Before Miggy Cabrera, Tex, Longoria, Howard… Buh-but, Grey, isn’t 1st base deep? Yeah, and steals from an outfielder are shallow?  Oh-kay.  Because I have a photographic memory and no actual evidence to prove this, you’re gonna have to take my word for it.  Last year, Crawford was ranked somewhere in the 40s by ESPN.  Then he has a career year and he’s ranked 8th.  ESPN’s three year averages to figure out projections are done by multiplying the last year by three.

Ichiro Suzuki – 23 at ESPN, 43 here.  Probably the worst value player that is always overrated.  You need a .277 average to be competitive.  Ichiro best attribute is he can turn your average up to 11; it’s pointless.

Jose Reyes – 40 at ESPN, 18 here.  See my comment about Crawford for why they have Reyes this low.

Curtis Granderson – 55 at ESPN, 34 here.  Clara Bell wrote an interesting piece the other day about how Grandy could hit 35 homers and steal 20 bases but he’s NOT a top fifty draft option.  And, by interesting, I mean you really can’t make this shizz up.  You have to be an ESPN Hindsighter to read the whole thing, so I’ll Cliff Note it for you.  Karabell argues that Grandy is such a negative on average that he’lll cost your team dearly for those 35 homers and 20 steals.  As I’ve mentioned previously, you could have found 25 outfielders who contributed 20 steals, but only ten outfielders, who retain outfield eligibility for 2010, that had 30 homers.  Grandy fell in both categories.  Only three other outfielders did.  Also, nowhere does he mention that Granderson was about fifty points off his career BABIP and should hit closer to .275.  I don’t expect Karabell to know anything about BABIP, except Cockcroft, another ESPN Hindsighter, just wrote an article about how Granderson was unlucky with BABIP.  Maybe Karabell was too busy with a Michael Bolton from Office Space Lookalike Contest to read it.

Brandon Webb – 81 at ESPN, 175 here.  ESPN has Webb ahead of Cain, Ubaldo, Hamels, Wandy and Kershaw… As for why they ranked Webb this high, I think there’s a good chance they just totally forgot about last year.  Or maybe when they were ranking Webb, Berry farted and everyone laughed, causing them to skip over Webb’s name.

Howie Kendrick – 105 at ESPN, 200 here, about 100 picks before I have him.  Kendrick’s a good average bet that hasn’t put together one full year at the major league level.  No, thanks.

Todd Helton – 154 at ESPN, 261 here.  According to Point Shares, Helton will earn -3.38 Points.  He comes in with a -1.5 Points for homers and -1.2 for RBIs.  Nice!

Ian Stewart – 199 at ESPN, 100 here.  I’m totally waiting for them to write the Ian Stewart sleeper post, quoting their own facacta rankings.  Guys, I look like Michael Bolton, and I think Stewart’s great value ranked at 199! Actually, now that I think about it, the best thing you can do with ESPN’s rankings is send all of your leaguemates there to study them.

I’ve mentioned a few times in the course of the rankings about guys I’d actually own.  In the 2010 fantasy baseball top 100, I say there’s 20 guys I’d actually own.  I’ll even pull the quote for you.  In the F-Her blurb, I said, “If I were to only talk about the guys I would actually own, this top 100 may only be 20 guys long.”  See, I did say it!  So, I lied.  I’d own everyone in the top 100.  I’d own Lincecum, but he’d have to fall to me in the 3rd round; I’d own Mark Reynolds, but he’d have to be around in the 4th round; I’d own Mauer, but he’d have to be around pick 28.  And so on and so forth.  What I mean by there’s only 20 players I’d own is those are the only guys I could actually see myself getting in a draft considering where they’re being drafted and how I assemble a team.  I’d draft Nathan in the 90s, but his ADP is 75, so it doesn’t seem like it’s happening.  This also does not include the top 22 guys overall.  I’d own them all, except Lincecum.  Anyway, here’s the players from ranking 22 to 100 in the top 100 for 2010 fantasy baseball that I’d own:

24. Justin Upton

29. Ryan Zimmerman

30. Kevin Youkilis

33. Joey Votto

34. Curtis Granderson

35. Jayson Werth

36. B.J. Upton

37. Brandon Phillips

40. Robinson Cano

47. Josh Hamilton

54. Carlos Quentin

55. Nelson Cruz

56. Adam Jones

71. Cole Hamels

72. Josh Johnson

73. Cliff Lee

74. Ubaldo Jimenez

76. Ricky Nolasco

77. Josh Beckett

78. Clayton Kershaw

85. Gordon Beckham

86. Raul Ibanez

96. Wandy Rodriguez

97. Chad Billingsley

100. Ian Stewart

And it came out to 24 guys.  Well, I did say, “…this top 100 may only be 20 guys long.”  Turns out I underestimated.  This becomes interesting if you look at how the names break down.  (And by “interesting,” I mean rather pedantic.) In the beginning, I shoot for the cornerstones with Zimmerman, Youk and Votto.  Then I briefly look at 2nd basemen before stocking my outfield with Grandy, Werth, Upton, etc.  Once I have my corners and outfield in good shape, I look at pitchers.  After pitchers, I round out the top 100 with upside and personal favorites.  Now I say I’d own these guys.  Obviously, I wouldn’t own all of them on one team.  Also, who you have in the top 22 dictates who you take later.  Hehe, I said dictates.

The other day we went over the top 20 third basemen for 2010 fantasy baseball, finishing up the infield for our 2010 fantasy baseball rankings.  Today, we turn our bejeweled eyeglasses to the top 20 outfielders for 2010 fantasy baseball.  The top twenty outfielders will need to go to a top 40 then a top 60 then a top 80.  What I found overall from ranking the outfielders is that speed’s back like the go-go 80s when half the league was on coke.  So I ranked power outfielders ahead of ones whose value came from speed.  More on that in the post.  As always, these top 20 outfielders are broken up into tiers with my projections.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 outfielders for 2010 fantasy baseball:

1. Ryan Braun – See the top 10 for 2010 fantasy baseball for Ryan Braun’s 2010 projections.

2. Matt Kemp – See the top 10 for 2010 fantasy baseball for Matt Kemp’s 2010 projections.

3. Matt Holliday – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here to Ellsbury.  I call this tier, “Still number one outfielders.”  See the top 20 for 2010 fantasy baseball for Matt Holliday’s 2010 projections.

4. Grady Sizemore – See the top 20 for 2010 fantasy baseball for Grady Sizemore’s 2010 projections.

5.  Carl Crawford – See the top 20 for 2010 fantasy baseball post for Carl Crawford’s 2010 projections.

6. Jacoby Ellsbury – As mentioned before on this blog, speed guys are a lot like new cars.  The minute you drive a speed guy off the lot, he loses a lot of value.  Don’t believe me, try to trade Ellsbury for a guy of similar value.  A guy who can easily go 10/60 needs to be in the top of the outfield rankings, but I tend to look for speed from SAGNOF middle infielders (Andrus, Everth Cabrera, etc) or later round SAGNOF outfielders (Pierre, Borbon, etc).  Is it nice to have an Ellsbury-type and not have to worry about steals later?  Sure, but if something happens to Ellsbury and your entire team is built to not worry about steals, you may have to worry.  2010 Projections:  105/10/65/.300/60

7. Justin Upton - This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here to Bay.  I call this tier, “Who said the outfield is deep?”  Above, there’s four power threats and two speed threats, now a guy that went 26/20.  Wow.  Don’t get me wrong, I love Justin Upton, but this is the top of the outfield?  Where did the Carlos Lees, Mannys, Sorianos and Berkmans go?  As mentioned earlier in the preseason, you could’ve found 27 players who contributed 20 steals, but only eleven outfielders that had 30 homers.  Obviously testing for steroids is working better than testing for Red Bull.  re: Upton; His fly balls fell and his homers surged.  Not a great recipe for success.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see him in a holding pattern in 2010 rather than a huge step forward.  But his holding pattern is still better than most players’ peak and the high ranking is also for his tremendous upside.  2010 Projections:  80/27/95/.290/20

8. Curtis Granderson – Don’t blame me for this ranking; blame the outfield.  Where else am I supposed to rank a guy who can steal 20 bags and hit 30 homers?  I know his splits; I know the so-called psychological toll playing for the Yanks takes; I also know he can pull 30 homers over the short porch without much effort.  As I said when Grandy was traded, the average last year should’ve been higher.  He’s not going to win a batting title, but .275 is doable.  2010 Projections:  110/30/80/.270/20

9. Jayson Werth – It feels like people don’t trust Werth, but he’s been caught stealing 4 times in 44 attempts in the last two years and his power doesn’t look fluky.  From May to September, he hit at least 6 homers every month so it’s not like his numbers were inflated with an insane month or two.  2010 Projections:  85/30/100/.270/18

10. B.J. Upton – He’s definitely shown he can’t be relied on for 20 homers, but you can count on him for 40 steals and 10 homers.  The low average can only partially be written off as bad luck; he also swung at more balls outside the strike zone.  I think they’re tied together.  He was unlucky, started pressing and things got progressively worse.  At least that’s my missing bang theory.  2010 Projections:  90/14/65/.275/40

11. Ichiro Suzuki – Here’s my thought on Ichiro.  Yes, he hits .330+ consistently, but your fantasy baseball team only needs around .280 to be in contention.  You should get .280 with a few .260 hitters, a few .280 hitters and a few .300 hitters.  So Ichiro’s unnecessary average gorging.  2010 Projections:  100/10/55/.330/25

12. Jason Bay – He nearly ended up in the next tier.  What held him out was his ability to steal.  Just don’t trust him like I should considering his year in, year out numbers.  I have this feeling that he will hit 25 homers and steal 5 bags with a .265 average.  My fears are probably unrealistic.  Like my fear of electric eels.  (<–Yes, I’m on Twitter, but I don’t check it much, so, yeah, do what you do.)  2010 Projections:  85/28/105/.270/10

13. Adam Lind – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here to Markakis.  I call this tier, “Power threats with weak speed.”  There’s instances when I would skip this tier and jump to the next one.  If I drafted Ryan Howard in the first round, I’d want someone from the tier, “Speed threats with weak power.”  (That tier starts in the top 40 outfielders, which can be found in the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings once it’s posted.)  The reason why the power threats with weak speed came first in the rankings is because power is a lot harder to come by than speed.  I know, tell that to 1998 and it would laugh.  Okay, now about Lind.  It’s weird how I feel like sometimes a hitter breaks out and everyone scrambles for him, then other times a hitter breaks out and people are tepid about believing it.  Lind broke out last year.  There’s no reason to believe he’s going to lapse into bust territory this year.  2010 Projections:  85/35/110/.300/2

14. Josh Hamilton – Never to be one to resist a talented guy who just had a tough year, I couldn’t stop myself from putting Hamilton higher than most ‘perts.  Is Hamilton still injury prone?  Dur, of course.  He’s still only 28 entering the 2010 season and he has big time talent.  2010 Projections: 85/28/100/.275/7

15. Andre Ethier – I still find it hard to believe Ethier’s power, so I can’t promise you I wouldn’t skip over Ethier in a draft if I felt a real power squeeze on my fantasy team.  2010 Projections:  80/24/95/.285/7

16. Carlos Quentin – Here’s an extended look at Carlos Quentin for 2010 fantasy baseball.  2010 Projections:  80/28/95/.275/5

17. Nelson Cruz – I was tempted to put Cruz even higher, but then I realized Bill James’s projections of 36 homers and 21 steals with a .284 average shouldn’t be taken at face value.  James sure has it bad for Rangers, huh?  If Cruz were to reach those projections, that’s number one outfielder shizz.  But we’ll try and be a bit more sober with him.  2010 Projections:  80/32/95/.275/15

18. Adam Dunn – Dunn’s projections can be found at the top 20 1st basemen for fantasy baseball post.

19. Adam Jones – A record breaking third Adam makes the top 20 outfielders.  Four seems out of reach, unless when someone says Adam Lambert plays for the other team, they mean a baseball team.  Jones got knocked out of almost all of September with a strained ankle, but he should be ready to go in time for spring training.  At 24, he should be able to take the next step with his power and speed.  I’m very excited about watching Pacman make it rain this year.  2010 Projections:  95/27/85/.280/15

20. Nick Markakis - After last season only true loyalists would stand up and shout, “I am Sparkakis!”  He doesn’t have much more than 25 homer power or 10 steal speed. (He does have more speed, but I think the Orioles are slowing him for risk of injury.)  But he won’t kill you on average, Runs or RBIs.  Not as exciting as once perceived, but still solid.  So maybe it’s “I am Sparkakis” with a period rather than an exclamation point.  2010 Projections:  100/24/100/.300/7

Edwin Jackson to the Diamondbacks, Curtis Granderson to the Yankees, Max Scherzer to the Tigers and Austin Jackson to obscurity with a new team.  The Tigers couldn’t wait to move Edwin Jackson.  Why, you may ponder if you ponder things like this.  This is Edwin Jackson of a 2.52 ERA before the All-Star Game vs. a 5.07 ERA after.  That’ll put up more red flags than a Commie.  In 2009, he didn’t really pitch as well as his 2.52 ERA indicates.  He had some luck.  He’s probably closer to a 3.50 ERA pitcher in the first half.  In 2008, Jackson’s first half ERA was 3.93 and 5.16.   Maybe he’s just a 1st half pitcher.  My advice was going to be to ignore Jackson in 2010 fantasy baseball, but now that he’s in the desert and, more importantly, the NL, he’ll have some 4th fantasy starter appeal.  I’d definitely take a flier later on with him, but be ready to move him as the calender strikes July.  Anyway, there’s all kinds of fantasy baseball implications to this trade, let’s look at some other guys:

Curtis Granderson – Granderson hit 30 homers in Comerica.  Now he gets to play in The Stadium Adjacent To The Stadium That Ruth Built.  Or less succinctly, The Stadium That Even Johnny Damon Can Hit 25 Homers In.  I wouldn’t be turned off by Grandy’s 2009 .249 average.  A) He had some bad luck; the average should’ve been higher.  B) He’ll be hitting in a better lineup. C) There is no C.  Granderson may not have been a solid number two fantasy outfielder before the trade, but he is after it.  If he hits 35 homers in that Little League park and steals 20 bases, which he’s capable of, he’ll be a number one outfielder.  Believe the hype, Chuck D.

Ian Kennedy – He should compete for a rotation spot with the D-Backs.  I think he’ll probably have more value than Edwin Jackson when all is said and done, but he’ll need a rotation spot out of Spring Training to have value for 2010 fantasy baseball.  He’ll be a late round flier if he does get the spot and can out produce that.

Austin Jackson – His value goes sideways.  Or East to West, for literalists.

Max Scherzer – Because of the jump in innings from 2008 to 2009, I was already going to preach caution for Scherzer.  Now, I’d avoid him.

Phil Coke – Leaving the Yankees.  For you casual fans, Phil Coke was not a nickname for Steve Howe.

With the top 40 outfielders, we’ve finished all the recaps for hitters.  (Here’s all the final 2009 fantasy baseball rankings.  They’re also to your left… your other left.  And down.)  Pitching recap will begin next.  (NOTE:  The end of the season rankings are based on ESPN’s Player Rater.  I felt the easiest way to keep it objective would to go this course.  This way when I say someone finished 30th and I ranked them 23rd in the preseason it carries more weight.  Does this mean I think ESPN’s Player Rater is perfect?  No.  It’s just an objective third party to see how well my preseason rankings did.)  Anyway, here’s the top 40 outfielders for 2009 fantasy baseball and how they compare to where I originally ranked them:

21. Carlos Lee – How did he only get 65 Runs?  He played in a 160 games.  He batted .300.  He hit 26 homers.  He hit 4th the entire year.  Oh, wait, I know.  Geoff Blum hit 5th for the Astros in 171 at-bats.  Preseason Rank #3, 2009 Projections:  100/33/110/.300/7, Final Numbers:  65/26/102/.300/5

22. Andre Ethier – Maybe it’s because of the pitcher’s park or the pitcher’s division, but I never fully get behind Dodgers hitters.  Lukewarm on Russell Martin, Loney, Hudson, Furcal, Blake, Ethier and Manny.  Kemp I’m crazy for, but I think you have to be crazy to not be crazy for him.  Preseason Rank #46, 2009 Projections:  80/17/75/.290/5, Final Numbers:  92/31/106/.272/6

23. Michael Cuddyer – Went over him in the top 20 1st basemen.  Final Numbers:  93/32/94/.276/6

24. Nick Markakis - Here we see the problem with relying on 25 homer power.  In an off year, they hit 18 homers and you wanna strangle someone.  Markakis had two months where he hit one homer (June and September) and one month of 2 homers (April).  His speed continues to decline.  He now has back-to-back seasons of 5 homers vs. lefties.  Markakis isn’t done in my eyes (he’s only going to be 26 in 2010), but I really would like to see 30 homers before going caca-cuckoo for him.  Preseason Rank #3, 2009 Projections:  95/25/100/.310/10, Final Numbers:  94/18/101/.293/6

25. Nelson Cruz – His season was actually much better than this ranking and that will be reflected in January when I go over 2010 rankings.  I say it’s much better because Runs and RBIs are a symptom of the guys around him.  The homers and steals can’t be taught, and he has them.  He could easily be a top 15 outfielder with better Runs and RBIs.  Preseason Rank #49, 2009 Projections:  75/25/90/.270/10, Final Numbers:  75/33/76/.260/20

26. Rajai Davis – After the All-Star Break, he stole 30 bases and hit .325.  DNA samples taken in the 2nd half of the season showed there was a 99.8% chance that Rajai was Carl Crawford.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  65/3/48/.305/41

27. Jason Kubel – In February, I alluded to how he was better value than Jermaine Dye.  And that’s me alluding to me!  Preseason Rank #61, 2009 Projections:  80/20/80/.280, Final Numbers:  73/28/103/.300/1

28. Raul Ibanez – My call on him being a 2nd half hitter looked about as good as Lady Gaga’s clothing choices.  Preseason Rank #28, 2009 Projections:  85/25/110/.290/3, Final Numbers:  93/34/93/.272/4

29. Scott Podsednik – Sometime in May, Ozzie called him into his office.  This is what transpired.  “I want vintage Podsednik!”  “I don’t know if I have it in me, Skip.”  “Skip?!  What is that?  Punta talk?  Now go uncork a 2004 Podsednik!”  And he did.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  75/7/48/.304/30

30. Adam Dunn – Went over him in the top 20 1st basemen.  Preseason Rank #23, 2009 Projections:  80/40/85/.245/5, Final Numbers:  81/38/105/.267

31. Hunter Pence – The same thing that hampered Carlos Lee also got Pence.  It’s called the lack of an Astros offense.  With a little help in Runs and RBIs, Pence would’ve been ranked much higher.  Preseason Rank #35, 2009 Projections:  85/28/95/.275/10, Final Numbers:  76/25/72/.282/14

32. Curtis Granderson - There was a whole lot of math done recently on Granderson’s year.  Long story short, he should’ve hit in the .270s rather than the .240s.  As is my wont, I usually ignore average anyway when a guy brings something else to the table.  Grandy brings 30/20.  That’s a whole lotta something else.  I feel like I may be owning Grandy next year on a few teams.  Preseason Rank #19, 2009 Projections:  115/22/75/.275/17, Final Numbers:  91/30/71/.249/20

33. Franklin Gutierrez – Back in February, I said, “I’m a fan of The Big FraGu.  Decent shot at being a cheap source of 15/15.”  And that’s me quoting me!  Preseason Rank #63, 2009 Projections:  70/12/75/.260/16, Final Numbers:  85/18/70/.283/16

34. B.J. Upton – You know what would be nice?  Beej living up to(n) his potential.    Upton’s in the same category as Grandy.  Come February, I’ll be ignoring his bad average.  Preseason Rank #9, 2009 Projections:  95/20/80/.280/35, Final Numbers:  79/11/55/.241/42

35. Marlon Byrd – I suggested in the preseason that you grab Byrd and David Murphy and platoon them.  Turns out you would’ve done fine just owning them both and playing them.  Preseason Rank #68, 2009 Projections:  100/20/100/.285/10, Final Numbers:  66/20/89/.283/8

36. Nate McLouth – McLousy turned in an old school Mike Cameron season.  20/20 — yay!  .256 — eh.  Preseason Rank #18, 2009 Projections:  95/22/90/.270/22, Final Numbers:  86/20/70/.256/19

37. Andrew McCutchen – The Dread Pirate didn’t get his first at-bat of the season until June.  Go ahead, reread that sentence.  Now smize!  (The Tyra Banks definition, not the other one.)  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  74/12/54/.286/22

38. Brad Hawpe – Hawpe’s 2nd half was about as good as my ability to read Sumerian.  Apparently, the guy with the arrow on the ancient tablet means Hawpe shouldn’t be facing lefties.  Preseason Rank #34, 2009 Projections:  70/30/95/.280, Final Numbers:  82/23/86/.285/1

39. Juan Rivera – There should be a glossary term for these Juan Rivera types.  These players are available off of waivers in just about every 12 team league.  They don’t wow you with their numbers.  They don’t hurt your team.  They’re just there in your 5th outfielder slot.  Jason Kubel would be another one.  Each year, one steps up and does more than what is asked of them.  In 2008, it was Xavier Nady, this year it was Michael Cuddyer.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  72/25/88/.287

40. Chris Coghlan – Went over him in the top 20 3rd basemen post, Final Numbers:  84/9/47/.321/8