Fantasy Baseball Advice

Chien-Ming Wang – the two-time 19 game winner – is pitching historically bad.  How bad?  Some TV highlight show quoted some statistical service that the 15 earned runs he’s given up in the past 2 starts are the most ever for a Yankee pitcher’s first two starts of the year.  For fantasy purposes, he’s more toxic than Chinese air, waterways, and land combined.  As for Ted Lilly, you have to respect a guy who can overcome the ignominy of being traded for Hideki Irabu and Jeff Weaver.  He’s been a very underrated late game starter for the past two years with the Cubs. Today, he went 6 and 2/3, giving up only one hit.  Not to take anything away from Lilly, but the conditions were lousy at Wrigley for hitters.  If Ubaldo didn’t walk 6 batters in less than 4 innings, the Cubs wouldn’t have scored as many runs either.  We think Lilly’s risky for this year as he’s been relying a bit too much on breaking pitches.  But it’s not as if the Cubs training staff hasn’t had experience with sore-armed pitchers (see Prior, Wood, Harden)… Oh, and Wang?  We’re very worried about him.  Anyway, here’s what else we saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Edinson Volquez – I feel bad saying I told you so when someone’s not going well, but I told you so… Actually, that didn’t feel that bad.  Schadenfreude, you make me feel good!

Fausto Carmona – 5 IP, 4 ER.  Okay, I didn’t say to stay away from this schmohawk and it feels awful.  Damn you, karma!

Orlando Hudson – Orlando is living it up in LA.  Disneyworld meet Disneyland!  O-Dog used up his month’s offense production in one day as he hit for the cycle.  O-Dog’s about as hot as they come these last few days.  Is he worth owning?  Sure, I suppose.  He’s a 10/10 hitter with a decent average.  There’s a place for that but I’d prefer a 2nd baseman that could get you 25-40 steals.  One thing I will say is Hudson seems like he’s running more in the early going with 3 steals already in the first week.  But his career high in steals is 10.

Andre Ethier – 2 HRs yesterday.  Nice!  Now twist an ankle or something so Kemp could slowly start working his way up the lineup.  Aw, you know I’m just playin’, Ethier.  I love ya! (Actually, I don’t really, but I’m semi-rambling.)

Zach Duke – Shutout? Shuddup!  The Astros are not a very good offensive team. (Which seems like a complaint for them for the last so many years.  Maybe they might want to think about upgrading that.  Just a thought!)  Duke’s fine for an NL-Only league flier.  In mixed leagues, it’s Zach Puke.

Cristian Guzman – My Fantasy Razzball team (and really it’s all about me) took some hits (literally!) yesterday as Guzman went 5-for-5 then limped off the field.  He surprised last year by maintaining a .300 average and staying relatively healthy after failing to do either in his last years with Minnesota.  I was banking on a regression but not on the health part… There is nothing more frustrating then losing a guy on a Monday in a weekly league.  I should’ve just left Belliard in there… Wait, is that my inner monologue?  My bad.

Jesse Litsch – Left with forearm tightness. Another guy I had on my team that I want to suck.  I don’t think highly of Litsch, but would’ve been nice to see him stay healthy.  He’ll be out a few starts is my guess.

Mike Pelfrey – 5 IP, 5 ER.  I’m not defending Pelfrey because I don’t like him this year, but he did give up some bleeders and bloops.  Cust kayin’.

Jon Lester – 11 runs in 2 starts.  He was a risky pitcher too (in addition to Pelfrey).

Zach Greinke – 2-0, no earned runs thus far.  Because our dipolma from the College of Fantasy Baseball at Charleston says we have to report when we’re wrong 17% of the time, Greinke was a risky pitcher too.  Maybe trade him if you think we might still be right.

Matt Holliday – 3-for-4 with 2 RBIs.  Batting between Giambi and Garciaparra is really paying off! *sarcasm off*

B.J. Upton – Matt Joyce sent down as The Beej returned to action with a two steal night.  Good to have the Bossman back in town.

Carlos Pena – HR and 6 RBIs. *Random observation that is neither funny nor that enlightening alert* Pena reminds me of Delgado.

Ryan Franklin – First Save last night.  He will get more.  As far back as March 17th, I’ve been saying Franklin will get saves.  I’m not going to link to all the times I said it.  Just search in the search-a-ma-jig on the left.

Travis Snider – 2 HRs.  Still like Lind better, but I also like anyone who’s hitting two home runs in a game.  Even you, Ethier!

Chad Billingsley – 7 IP, 1 ER, 11 Ks.  Since last summer, I’ve said he’s headed for the 2009 NL Cy Young.  The Verducci guy clinked the armor, but I’m still holding tight.

Milton Bradley – Out a few days with a right groin strain.  How appropriate since he’s a jerkoff.

Justin Upton – O-for-the season.  The ‘Backs have too many options for him to continue on the path of ugly.  He’s going to be a good one, but it may not be the first half of the year.  Or this year at all.  Color me worried.

Jermaine Dye/Paul Konerko – Back to back 300th HRs.  According to the Elias Sports Bureau, this was the first time two players hit back to back 300th homers.  Actually, they didn’t say that… Well, they might’ve.  I have no idea.  Another thing possibly heard today in the Elias Sports Bureau office, in Accounting, Julio said, “Who took my pen for the third time this month?  Which is a new record!”

DeWayne Wise – Separated shoulder and out 6 weeks. This also really hurt my Fantasy Razzball team.  Wise looked like he was headed for one of the all-time worst years ever if Ozzie would’ve continued to play him.  And that’s a small “if,” because of course Ozzie was playing him.  Alas…  This opens up the centerfield job for the Jerry Owens promotion (SAGNOF, but he’s a truly crappy player) or Brian Anderson (poor average, some pop, not much to see here either).  This could also mean Ozzie moves Alexei Ramirez up the order.  Honestly, Alexei hasn’t done much to deserve it so that could mean Ozzie does move him up.  Oh, who are we fooling?  Ozzie’s going to continue to plug Wise into the top of the order, DL be damned!

Jed Lowrie – To the 15-Day DL.  Oh, well.  He’s done.  Feel free to cut him loose.  Probably the best thing that could’ve happened so you can move on from him sooner vs. later.  (BTW, Sooner vs. Later battled to a draw last time out in the octagon.)

Oh, they’re not just bad.  Nah, I outdid even myself this time.  On this drafternoon, I picked a team that is near-perfectly awful.  They simultaneously suck and blow.  On a scale of one to ten, they’re a negative seven.  I did the math!  Somehow I managed to get a team where not one hitter projects for more than twelve home runs.  If someone in the Royals brass gets wind of my drafting skills, I may get a job!  If you think I’m being facetious (which was recently outlawed in Madagascar), shame on you.  And shame on this team!  I took part in a fantasy baseball draft this past Saturday to pick the worst fantasy baseball team.  And I think I done did it.  My co-conspirators in this were:

Roto Rob
Tirico Suave
Drunk Jays Fans
Fantasy Baseball Cafe
Fantasy Pros 911
Hire Jim Essian
Sharapova’s Thigh
Fantasy Baseball Geeks
Beyond the Box Score

Come with me as I take out the trash:

Random thoughts about various rounds of the draft:

ROUND 1 – I had my eye on Ronnie Belliard like only Mrs. Belliard could ever know.  He’s eligible at 1st!  Need I continue?  Okay, he’s on the Nats.  Should I go on?  His K rate has been going up.  More?  He’s also eligible at 3rd.  All right, one more thing.  He’s projected for 400 ABs and 11 home runs.  Bleh, and thank you.

ROUND 2 – It was between Chone Fuggums and Lousy Castillo.  Had to go with the more shallow position of 3rd base.  Fuggums will probably get 500 ABs, and, I don’t know, 4 HRs.  Not a bad guy for the Not Corner.

ROUND 3 – And Lousy Castillo makes it back to me.  Projected for 487 ABs and… Wait for it… Here it comes… Hold on, I have an itch… All right, here it is… Zero home runs!  WTF?  How is that even possible?

ROUND 4 – Okay, I’ve waited on crappy outfielders long enough.  Skip Suckmaker, you’re mine!  Thank you, LaRussa.

ROUND 5 – I’m actually worried about my Runs at this point.  No, I didn’t just drink some Mexican water.  So to clog up my tailpipe, I select Erick Aybar.  He’s projected for less than 50 Runs and over 400 ABs.  Later I will add his Brother in Razzball Charms.

ROUND 6 – One thing I really notice about drafting craptacular players, everyone has a different draft sheet.  It’s like you got ten owners together that have all been in solitary confinement for the last six months.  Everyone knows who’s crappy, but nobody knows which order anyone else is going to take them, so guys last longer than you think they will.  Without further ado, Brian Schneider.

ROUND 7 – And because no one knows when anyone is drafting a player, you (or at least I) want to fill up your (my) Utility spot with another catcher that I know will rack up the ABs and little else — Yadier Molina.

ROUND 8 – Super futility man, Willie Aybar.

ROUND 9 – Finally, I take a pitcher.  Not just any pitcher, but a pitcher worthy of a Razzball Spotlight, Gorilla Ponson.

ROUND 10 – B. Giles because anyone who’s ever played any level of baseball can put up his stats.

ROUND 11 – Travis Ishikawa.  Everyone loses a job on your fantasy Razzball team, so backups are very helpful and Giants hitters are even more so.  Worst case scenario, Ishikawa and Belliard will make a nice blahtoon.

ROUND 12 – Vicente Padilla, probably my riskiest pick so far.  He can’t make it out of May with a job, can he?

ROUND 13 – Endy Chavez.  Nicest thing anyone can ever say about a guy on your Fantasy Razzball team, “He’s a great fielder!”

ROUND  14 – DeWayne Wise. Ozzie’s crazy enough to give him 500 ABs, but he’s not crazy enough to lead him off, is he?

ROUND 15 – Having played this league last year, I knew anyone I took on the pitching side would lose their job sooner than later if I was playing right.  With his 150th pick, Grey selects Danys Baez, a leading candidate for an Orioles rotation spot.  You heard me right, non-Orioles fans.  Baez might be an Orioles starter this year.  How’s dem apples?  Delicious!

ROUND 16 – Mark Buerhle.  Tried to balance all of the starters I was going to lose with a guy who can give me 200 lame innings.  There’s a chance I bench him until he gets cold.

ROUND 17 – Matt Harrison.  Okay, I’m a sucker for sucky Texas pitchers.

ROUND 18 – Jamie Moyer.  Another innings eater-slash-guy you can’t believe is still a major league starter.

ROUND 19/20 – Chris Dickerson and Gerald Laird.   Dickerson’s a K machine, but he’s the only guy on my entire team with any downside.  I’ll be honest.  I might be patroling the waiver wire for a Dickerson replacement.  As for Laird, it’s really hard to resist taking an extra catcher.  They’re all so good!

ROUND 23/24 – Jesse Litsch and Mike Pelfrey.  Some of you may be sad to see these guys here because you have them on your regular fantasy teams.  Let’s just say, I’m hoping these guys stay healthy because they could be in for an awfully wonderful year.

ROUND 25/26/27 – Kevin Frandsen and Cristian Guzman and Gabe Gross.  Not sure how this crapfecta lasted this long, but I just had to back up some of my other guys that are sure to lose playing time.  Actually, if I played my cards right, some of them might have lost playing time already.  Razztastic!

Alexis Rios hit three balls hard and one to the base of the centerfield wall that is a home run if it’s hit anywhere else. Finally, he’s hot. Hopefully Alexis Rios’s slump is done and his hot streak goes straight through the All-Star break and into October. He owes me! The fact that he only has four home runs thus far is an injustice to mankind (not the WWE wrestler who writes the occasional book and wears flannel). Joe Inglett has two home runs! Are you kidding me? Alexis Rios is another two week slump away from me reenacting Celtic Pride and kidnapping him. Stay hot, Rios. You’ve been warned. (BTW, while watching the Rios game, I was eating dinner with my girlfriend–she made a Sloppy Faux, which is a Sloppy Joe with fake meat. Don’t worry, I’m not a vegetarian; she is. And when she cooks, I eat. But I digress within the digression. So Rios hits the ball to deep center and I get excited. Then she says, “So you have real enthusiasm for a guy you have on a fake team?” Hmm… Maybe I care too much.) Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Rick Ankiel – Hit two HRs yesterday. (Am I the only one who wants the Cardinals to go into the 18th inning of a game and bring Ankiel in to pitch?)

Kyle Kendrick – He’s 7-3. Johan Santana called, he wants his win-loss record back. (Here’s my October prediction. The Phils make it to the playoffs and Kyle Kendrick is something like 15-10. Then in the third game of the 1st series, Kendrick is shelled and Joe Morgan says, “Kendrick had a great season, but just didn’t have it today.” Can you hear the vitriol (Word of The Day) in my voice?)

Shaun Marcum – Things went well with Dr. James Andrews. No surgery needed. Maybe I’m a pessimist but to me, visiting Dr. James Andrews is reason enough to be worried.

Jason Isringhausen – Blown save. I don’t think Ryan Franklin should be dropped just yet.

Gary Sheffield – Went 4-for-5. I don’t have any doubt that he wants to play and prove people wrong. Sheff is driven by proving people wrong. Much like Bonds was. However, I think nagging injuries catch up to Sheff before he can show everyone a thing or two. Is he worth a flier? Sure. Just don’t drop anyone you’ll regret. (Hey, that sounds like something I would say in the comments. So that’s me quoting future me!)

Luke Hochevar – Aka the guy whose last name you can’t pronounce went 8 innings and gave up 2 ER. He’s tamed his control problem in his last couple of starts, but I’m not picking him up in any league.

Shawn Chacon – I read the recap of how he attacked Ed Wade, the Astros GM. I also read about their conversation before it all went down. What I didn’t read was what Chacon did immediately after the altercation. Here’s what I think went down post-altercation. Chacon into his cellphone, “Hey, Milton Bradley, it’s Chacon. Did you hear–” “I’m watching Passions.” “The soap opera?” “What do you want, Chacon?” “Well, I just had an altercation and I was looking for some spiritual guidance. It seems–” “Did I mention I was watching Passions?” “Should I let you go?” At that point, Milton Bradley hung up on Shawn Chacon. If anyone knows where Chacon is now, let him know there are people that care about him and to keep hope alive.

Aaron Harang – I’m done making excuses for him. Okay, one excuse — he gave up an infield single then a home run to Joe Inglett(!) that barely got over the wall and hit the foul pole. What’s even more annoying (to me at least), Harang just doesn’t seem like he cares, but maybe that’s the creepy, Lurch-like deep sunken eyes. I hate you, Harang!

Eric Stults – I like Dodgers pitchers as much as the next guy, but I’m not picking up this schmohawk.

Jorge Campillo – Picked him up for this spot start, then I forgot to put him in (a drawback to having lots of teams). Anyway, I’m not necessarily dropping him just yet (though I’m not sure I’ll be starting him next time out against thePhils).

Russell Branyan – Mentioned this in the forums yesterday. Branyan looks like he’s turned the corner back onto K St.

Felix Hernandez – F-Her confirms what I thought all along. He’s not going to make his next start.

John Maine – Finally, someone makes the M’s look like the M’s.

Cristian Guzman – The Nats gave him a contract extension. After the announcement, Guzman said this, “Suckas!”

Carl Crawford – Carlin dead, Jared dead, Carl Crawford alive.  With two home runs yesterday, Crawford is hitting close to .500 in the last 7 games with three home runs. Why is he suddenly hitting? Because I just traded him away in one league. God hates me because I question him with things like, “Why are there more pigeons than pandas?”

Hank Blalock - Hurt his hand and doesn’t know when he’ll be able to return. Really sad stuff. I remember the good ‘ol days when he’d be able to return from a DL stint, play for a week or two then go back on the DL. Now it seems like he’s just going from DL stint to DL stint. *pours out some forty*

Halladay is the vet who averages 10 innings a game. AJ Burnett is the high-paid free agent with filthy stuff. McGowan is the prospect that’s on the verge of greatness, but Marcum has the best ERA, WHIP and K rate. That’s right, Shaun Marcum! Wait, who? Um, he’s from Missouri. You know, Marcum! He’s prone to the home run ball and… Let’s see… He’s averaging about one baserunner every seven starts. He has a ridiculous BABIP that’s under .200… (Grey, please no numbers!) Okay, sorry, grasshopper. So what are some predictions? Marcum is a solid #3 starter that should have between a 3.50 and 4.00 ERA the rest of the way. *nodding off* I’m sorry. What? Oh, Marcum! Right! Wow, Marcum is boring, right? He’s throwing a .87 WHIP through May and I can’t get excited about him at all. Maybe it’s because he’s from Missouri. Where is Missouri? Do they have TV there? Isn’t that Cardinals country? Why am I talking about the Cardinals? Cause Marcum’s really boring. But he can be helpful. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday:

Brandon Webb – Has dropped 2 in a row since the 9 game winning streak. If you convince someone in your league that he’s going to lose 7 more in a row, go for it. He’s as good a bet as there is for a starting pitcher right now. Worthy of a straight-up trade with just about any hitter not picked in the 1st round.

Jair Jurrjens – He was removed after 4 and 2/3 innings when he was up 2 runs. Sometimes a Cox yanking doesn’t lead to a happy ending.

Melky Cabrera – After a great April, Melky has been awful in May. Figure he’ll be in-between for the rest of the year which makes him a 15/15 OF who varies from 5th OF to droppable in most leagues.

Jason Bergmann – It’s hard to believe in anyone in Washington, but we’re fast becoming believers in Bergmann. 3 straight scoreless outings with 22 Ks in 19.2 IP. He was a reliever in the minors so it’s hard to project his stats, but he pitched OK last year in his first stint with the Nationals. Ride the streak and see where it takes you.

Corey Patterson – We suggest he move in with Corey Feldman and Corey Haim. They can all star in Lost Boys 2. (BTW, after offhandedly mentioning Sidney Pollack in Sunday night’s post, I wouldn’t stand too close to the Two Coreys today.)

Chase Headley – We told you about Ian Stewart 10 ten days prior to his call-up. We told you about Jay Bruce eight days prior. Headley should be up soon too. So if you’re still holding onto him, keep holding onto him. Let’s reevaluate in a week. (BTW, I don’t think everyone needs Headley, but if you’re weak at 3rd or corner, you might.)

Cristian Guzman – I feel like he could go 100/40/.330/40 and no one would ever pick him up and, next year, no one would draft him. It would be an interesting experiment to see if Cristian Guzman hit 27 home runs in a month, how long it would take for people to think he was for real and pick him up. I’d say he’d still be at 33% owned at the end of the month. Am I saying this because I think he’s worth a pickup and no one is because of preconceived notions? Oh, heck no. I just philosophize about mock drafts and fantasy expertise; you can call me a White-Mustachioed Socrates.

Chad Tracy – No one likes a red-headed stepchild. All he’s going to do is steal ABs from Co-Jack and Mark Reynolds.

Salomon Torres – If you feel like it’s a broken record, I apologize, but he can be the closer for two months. Team decisions about who is getting paid more (Backne) might affect the outcome, but don’t think Torres can’t do the job. “This was paid for by the committee to avoid a closer by committee.”

Ryan Spilborghs – A Corky Thatcher-looking skull that looks like it can be bought at Spencer Gifts is an alien God? Karen Allen looked like she’s too old to be dating Tommy Lee Jones forget Indiana Jones. Shia LaDouce is a tough-ass greaser? Why not just put a comb in Jonathan Lipnicki’s back pocket? *realizing it’s Spilborghs, not Spielberg* Oh, um, Spilborghs has been batting fourth with Holliday out. If he’s facing a lefty, you should absolutely have him in your lineup.

Chase Utley/Ryan Howard – I’m only surprised when one of them doesn’t hit a home run.

Kosuke Fukudome – Lately, he’s been like Ichiro without the speed or Matsui without the power. Either way, he’s in a serious funkudome.

Nick Markakis – I am Sparkakis!

Gary Sheffield – Oblique spasms. Perhaps they were caused by the fork poking him to check if he’s done.

Our mad experiment of a fantasy baseball game has come to life! Thanks to all the bloggers (and one non-blogger) that participated in the draft. Click here for the league members as well as blogmate Grey’s review of the draft. Here are links to other league members’ posts:

RotoProfessor

Fantasy Baseball Generals

Greener on the Other Side

Drafting the worst team vs. the best team possible proved to be a much tougher undertaking than standard FLB but it also proved more rewarding and entertaining.

A quick recap of rules before I go into my roster and draft strategy. It’s a 10 team mixed league universe with the standard roster of C/1B/2B/SS/3B/5 OF/UTIL/9P with 5 bench slots. Weekly roster changes.

Hitting:

AB (High = 10 points), R (Low), HR (Low), RBI (Low), K (High), AVG (Low)

Any team ABs < 5200 receive prorated stats @ 550 ABs of .320 AVG/120 R/35 HR/120 RBI/50 K

Pitching:

IP (High = 10 points), L (High), HR allowed (High), ERA (High), WHIP (High), K (Low)

Maximum – 180 starts

My draft strategy was to focus on low HR/RBI players with 500+ AB potential in the first couple rounds with preference toward typically strong positions of 1B, 3B, and OF. This surplus of AB with low power could hopefully be cashed in by using 300 AB platoon types in tougher to fill positions like CI and 4th/5th OF as well as support a high K player or two with good power stats. I also wanted to draft several multi-position players so I had flexibility when my craptastic players got the benchings they deserved. For pitchers, I focused on low K rate starters who have some job security (say, 2nd to 4th starter).

Time will tell if this strategy works out but I was very successful at executing it. See below for the draft results. I snagged three light-hitting OFs in the first four rounds (Taveras, Bourn, Owens) that combined for 4 HRs in 2007! Taveras and Bourn look like they should go for 900+ ABs and Owens should be able to kick in at least 300. I was also able to get 2 SS Razzball legends in Adam Everett and Cristian Guzman who are set to be everyday anchors. Was able to get versatile Brendan Ryan (2B/SS/3B), Esteban German (2B/3B/OF), and Pablo Ozuna (3B/OF) at good value. Snagged two K machines in Jack Cust (41% of 2007 AB!) and Mike Cameron (160 last year). Cust is going to feel like a big swinging dick in my fantasy OF – probably the same way Jack Clark felt on the 1985 Cardinals.

I didn’t take a pitcher until the 9th round but feel like I’ve got a number of guys who’ll be good for 20+ awful starts including Kyle Kendrick, John Denks, and two of the terrible Mariner trio (Batista and Washburn – Silva went early).

Here are the draft results & rosters. (Click on the image for better resolution)

So what do you think? Which team do you like the least, ur, most?