Fantasy Baseball Advice

Washington Nationals: Another turn on the closerousel for the Nationals, as Henry Rodriguez is no longer taking the ball in the 9th. BiBi showed the world on Wednesday that Davey Johnson was wrong for demoting him by allowing a homerun and walking a batter without recording a K. Tyler Clippard locked the door Tuesday with a clean outing and a K, picking up the save. He’s in the pole position for the job and has the skills (13.2% career swinging strike rate, 2.97 career ERA) to keep it until Drew Storen or Brad Lidge return. Sean Burnett has had slight issues with right-handed bats in his career – a near even walk-to-strikeout rate and a FIP/xFIP a full run higher than against LHB – and may grab the odd save based on matchups or if Clippard is used on consecutive days. Craig Stammen has flourished in his transition to the bullpen, but hasn’t been used in many late-inning situations as of yet and is likely third in the pecking order.

Cincinnati Reds: Sean Marshall continues his 2+ years of dominance by putting up career bests in K (31.4%), BB (4.4%), and GB (59.1%)… oh, and his .476 BABIP led to several blown leads and Aroldis Chapman inheriting Marshall’s post in the Red regime. Viva La Revolution! Chapman has struck out 43 of 91 batters faced and owns a 0.42 FIP this season. Those are not typos. He struggled throwing strikes last season and still put up a 3.60 ERA with a 1.30 WHIP. He may well end this season with an ERA under 1.50 and a sub-1.00 WHIP. Word is that Chapman doesn’t like pitching in back-to-back games; Marshall will get a save opportunity in such a situation.

Chicago White Sox: Robin Ventura has officially named Addison Reed the closer for the Pale Hose. Reed’s lowest K% in the minors was 34.2% – he’s the best pitcher in the White Sox bullpen and will package his saves in a bundle of strikeouts. Expect his walk rate to drop a little as an added bonus. Jesse Crain looks to be the add if Reed falters.

New York Yankees: Joe Girardi indicated Wednesday that Rafael Soriano will be the closer even when David Robertson returns from the DL. Soriano is missing fewer bats and throwing fewer strikes than last season, so if you own Robertson, enjoy the Ks and wait until Soriano lights himself on fire.

Los Angeles California Angels of Anaheim Orange County: Ernesto Frieri has struck out 37 of his 82 batters faced this season, and 19 of 32 since joining the Angels. Scott Downs has sat down 7 of 50 batters on strikes. I did the math, it says Frieri should be owned. He obviously won’t continue to strike out 3 of every 5 batters he faces, but he’s a better pitcher than Downs and as soon as Downs has a rough inning I think Frieri officially gets the nod.

Chicago Cubs: Rafael Dolis farted liquid from the mound again Wednesday, allowing 3 runs on 3 hits and 2 walks before getting pulled. Kazaam! He throws his fastball 90% of the time and sports a K/BB ratio of 10/13. I’m amazed he’s even in the big leagues. James Russell is next in line for saves for now, and he possesses a 15/10 K/BB mark in 21 innings. That counts as sparkling on the Cubs. I honestly think Carlos Marmol falls back into the job when he comes back from the DL, and would be the only Cub I’d own at gunpoint. The entire Cubs bullpen is an unmitigated disaster.

Arizona Diamondbacks: J.J. Putz was hosed on what should have been a called second strike and a thrown out runner at second base, but alas, he surrendered two walks and a double, blowing his third save of the season Tuesday night. His velocity was 90/91 MPH for the night, and he’s had trouble with first pitch strikes this season (51.5%, down from 65.9% last season). He’s throwing total strikes at near career rates, and batters are chasing more of his pitches out of the zone than ever before; Putz’s problem is that hitters are teeing off on pitches in the zone, making contact at a 92.2% clip (86.5% last season). Assuming his velocity drop was a one night issue, I think he’ll regain his command and be fine. His struggles seem like statistical noise at this juncture.

San Francisco Giants: Brandon Crawford cost Madison Bumgarner (and me) a win by booting a groundball, and Santiago Casilla (and my opponent) picked up the win in extra innings. No breaking news here, just wanted to reveal how petty I am. Sergio Romo is a better pitcher, but arm issues prevent him from handling an every day workload, thus Casilla is the man for the Giants.

So with a continuation from previous post about fantasy baseball middle relievers today will be the senior circuit and the National League.  I personally tend to notice that it is easier to stream or pick up relievers from the NL because of the way they substitute pitchers in games more frequently.  Maybe it’s just me, you can agree to disagree if you choose, but I will always be right regardless of what you say.  Here’s some pitchers that get holds for 2012 fantasy baseball:

NL East

New York – Everyone handcuffed Frank Frank with Rauch as well they should, but in the holds department Tim Byrdak and Bobby Parnell are the main set-up to the set-up guys if that makes any type of sense.

Philadelphia – Antonio Bastardo was the early on favorite to garner most of the holds attention.  Retread Chad Qualls seems to be the go-to guy in the early going. Not a great situation, in general, as Philly’s starters average almost 8 innings a start.

Miami – This to me is the place to come and get a nice mixed daiquiri and maybe an unheralded RP.  Steve Chisek, Edward Mujica and Randy Choate form a nice triumvirate of relievers in front of Bell.  Out of the 3, I would take Chisek.

Washington – Tyler Clippard is the guy most owned, he has had it rough in the beginning, but is a good bet for 30 plus here.  Sean Burnett has been turned into an everyday guy to a more situational guy and it suits him.  Craig Stammen is the sleeper guy, showing great K rate and a good source for vulture wins.

Atlanta – Everyday Jonny is owned or should be in most formats. Kris Medlen and Eric O’Flaherty form a nice righty/lefty setup in front of him.

NL Central

St Louis – The more I watch St Louis, the more I am starting to like Mitchell Boggs as the guy in front of Motte.  Marc Rzepczynski is a fill-in for the tough lefties and both guys should finish above 25 Holds here.

Milwaukee – K-Rod is, well, K-Rod… Shows signs of being unhittable and then looks like a tether ball.  Jose Veras is a nice option to have and has pitched semi-effectively to date.  Kameron Loe is the sleeper to watch here.

Cincinnati – Aroldis Chapman is all the rage, like jean jackets and IOU sweatshirts, and, to be honest, he should be starting. Logan Ondrusek has done a stand-up job in the absence of Nick Masset.

Chicago – Yuck, can I just skip them?  Wood is hurt. Rafael Dolis is young and spotty at best.  Definitely a bullpen to avoid.  Newly acquired Michael Bowden could become useful, so monitor it closely

Houston – Outside of Wilton Lopez, Fernando Rodriguez and David Carpenter are more names for NL-only, then mixed variety.

Pittsburgh – They can’t score so how are they supposed to have a lead.  Do they even need a bullpen?  Juan Cruz did a great job filling in at closer for Joel Hanrahan and is rosterable based on handcuff.  Sleeper here is Jason Grilli, nice 10/1 K/bb rate in the early going.

NL West

Los Angeles – Kenley Jansen is most likely the closer of the future (or of right now).  Josh Lindblom is the guy no one knows, but is climbing up Hold ranks for me.

San Diego – What happened? San Diego used to be the maven for relief pitching and they have three, count it, three holds as of me writing this.  Cashner is the guy to own because of the inevitable trade of Street.  You can pick any other reliever in the bullpen for the Friars and their numbers are excellent just no counting stats yet. Monitor close as 3-4 guys have great ratios and will eventually put up holds in bunches.

San Francisco – Well, Romo is still the man here, Casilla is the one turning out the lights and Clay Hensley and Javier Lopez are the guys that you want for holds after Romo.  Just like Bochy drew it up in his ginormous head.  Don’t forget about Affeldt here, that’s all I am saying.

Colorado – It’s the Rex Brothers and Matt Belisle show here as it seems they pitch everyday for the Rockies.  Guys to keep an eye on are Matt Reynolds and Josh Roenicke.

Arizona – Bryan Shaw keeps stealing David Hernandez’s thunder by getting saves. Both are decent options for holds also. Though if Putz comes to shove, I think Hernandez is the closer in waiting.  Deeper leagues can look at Craig Breslow.

I picked up Doug Fister in every league I could.  So, that’s out of the way.  I won’t start him the next time out though and I’m not sure I’ll start him ever.  I may just drop him if I never get a good matchup at home.  At home’s key.  That’s the only place I’d start him.  Last night, his 7 IP, 1 ER, 4 baserunners, 3 Ks performance is his peak.  He pitches to contact and doesn’t K anyone.  He’s similar to Joel Pineiro.  Call him Jo-eh.  If you were the firster to get him off waivers, chuck him into a package trade for someone much more reliable or exciting.  His appeal is limited.  So, yes, I grabbed him to chuck him.  My apologies, Mister Fister.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Casey Kotchman – Hit his 2nd homer in as many days.  Going mono y mano with Soriole, Bradley Bergesen.

Franklin Gutierrez – The Big FraGu left the game in the 7th with tightness in his groin.  Ugh-arf!  That’s FraGu backwards (almost).

Conor Jackson – To the DL with a hamstring.  This is probably the best thing to happen to his owners all year.  If you’re struggling to find room for him on the DL, I’ll save you the time.  Drop him in most mixed leagues.

Kelly Johnson – 1-for-4, but Conor Jackson’s hamfret pushes Johnson into the leadoff role.  I like me some Johnson!  Not like that.  C’mon, that’s juvenile.

Gerardo Parra – 1-for-3, and now has a starting job because Conor Jackson’s injury is paying it forward.  Parra has little value outside of NL-Only leagues.  There, he’ll give you very little power and little speed.

Ty Wigginton – I mentioned grabbing him yesterday when he had four homers in the last week.  Today, he has 5.

David Eckstein – He hit a walk-off HR for San Diego.  When pressed for comment, Eckstein said it was his biggest hit since knocking out Soda Popinski.

Clayton Richard – 6 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 8 baserunners, 5 Ks.  He’s not really bad on Ks and he will have an under-4 ERA at home this year.

Brian Fuentes – Scheduled to return from the DL on Wednesday.  He should get the closer role right back.  At least I hope so since I own this doode.

John Lackey – 3 1/3 IP, 8 ER.  A’la Superintendent Chalmers, “Lack-eee!”  Honestly, this might have been Lackey’s alter ego pitching, Lon Jackey.  He pitches like he’s in a horror film.

Mike Cameron – Could miss a few games because he’s got some stones below the belt in the literal instead of colloquial sense.

Jacoby Ellsbury – May end up D’ellsburied after all.  The Sawx played Bill Hall in center yesterday.  How’s that for depth?

Jeremy Hermida – HR yesterday.  Hermida couldn’t get to a ball he should’ve, which started the scoring on Lackey.  Hermida is a poor-man’s Trot Nixon.  Call him Mosey Agnew.

Brad Penny – 7 IP, 2 ER, 9 baserunners, 5 Ks.  He’s actually been one of my best pitchers so far.  Scary, yet true.

Aaron Rowand – Reports are good that Rowand won’t need surgery on his face.  Too bad Willie McGee never received the same good news.

Juan Uribe – Has two homers in the last two games.  He’s one of the streakiest hitters.  Bet he hits at least two more homers this week.

Dontrelle Willis – 6 IP, 2 ER, 6 baserunners, 2 Ks.  He seems like a good guy.  I wish him the best.  I wouldn’t touch him.

Felix Pie – Will miss up to three months with latissimus dorsi muscle injury.  I thought only dolphins had dorsi muscles.  Anyone ever see Felix Pie flinch around a can of tuna?  Eh, guess it’s not important.  I imagine Reimold’s still nursing his Achilles’ because he’s pulling a Kotchman with that thing, but he’s got one less schmohawk to deal with for playing time and he has been hitting cleanup.

Kelly Shoppach – Out for 4-6 weeks with knee surgery.  I had knee surgery once and I wasn’t able to catch for almost two months later.  Actually, that’s a complete lie, but my English Comp teacher once told me to personalize.

Brandon Morrow – 7 IP, 1 ER, 5 baserunners, 8 Ks vs. the Royals.  Now they should make him a closer!  I keed.  Morrow should be capable of more performances like this one, but he gets the Rays next and I’m officially more worried about the Rays’ offense than the Sawx’s.

Mike McCoy – 3-for-4, 2 steals.  Hill’s due back soon which will push McCoy to, well, wherever McCoys go when they’re not playing.  In the meantime, McCoy stole 40 bases in Triple-A.  As they say at Razzball, SAGNOF!

Travis Snider – 2-for-5 as he hit his 2nd homer in four games.  I think he might be a year away still, but he could be coming around; don’t sleep on him if he’s out there.

Cliff Lee – Will throw a simulated game on Tuesday.  They should use a Wii for that.

Ike Davis – 2-for-4, 1 RBI and a million New Yawkers thinking this Davis has an idear up der at bat.  If you scroll down, you’ll see a post about him.  Want more, greedy?  Okay.  The Mets announcers (I heart Keith Hernandez) were comparing Davis to John Olerud.  Davis was wearing a batting helmet at the time, but they meant it about his hitting.  Also, they meant it as a compliment, but I took it as insult.  20 homers and a good average?  I’m hoping he develops more power than that.  Either way, you should own Davis for the chance at a breakout.

Jose Reyes – Wanted the day off because of fatigue.  It’s fair after playing three plus games in two days.  Then he got in the game late and continued to do nothing.  We need to remain calm.  He had no time to ramp up to the season.  The thyroid shorted him his Spring Training.  I’m not worried.  If Reyes gets hot, he could carry you for a month.

Craig Stammen – 8 IP, 2 ER, 6 baserunners, 5 Ks.  That Stammen is a real pistil!  What, flower jokes ain’t your thing?  Whatever.  Oh, and Stammen’s a terrible pitcher, nothing’s changed.

Kevin Mench – The Nationals gave him a minor league deal and he’s hitting so far.  If the Nats call him up, I’m booking tickets for Kevin Mench Fathead Poster day when the first 10,000 guests get life-sized posters of Kevin Mench’s head that one can affix to their wall like a giant tapestry or fresco.

Scott Podsednik – Left the team for a family emergency.  The emergency:  give his hot wife a royal f***in’ vs. playing for the f***in’ Royals.

The only thing more strained than Raul Ibanez’s patience for skeptics is his left groin as the Phillies placed him on the 15 day DL.  You don’t own Ibanez for his wheels so this isn’t as troubling as Jose Reyes with a bad hammy or Willy Taveras with an allergy to getting on base.  Stick him on the DL and hopefully he comes back in 15 days with an unstrained groin.  As for his Philly replacement John Mayberry Jr, think Rickie Sexson.  Lots of power but huge holes in his swing.  He might jack a few HRs before the league figures him out but we’d only recommend him for NL-only leagues and the power-desperate in deep mixed leagues.  Anyway, here’s what else we saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Tommy Hanson – 6 IP, 0 ER.  With only two Ks vs. the Reds, it’s not as encouraging as it could be.  But I don’t believe we’re going to see the real Tommy Hanson this year anyway.  Not to say he won’t be good, just keep expectations in check.

Nate McLouth – HR yesterday and 4 RBIs.  Hopefully this big game can endear him to Braves fans enough so he gets his own racist chant.  I vote for swigging motions with Chumbawamba playing.

Jason Frasor – On today’s episode of As The Bullpen Turns, Frasor got the win in the 8th, Ryan started the ninth and Accardo finished it for the save.  After the game, Cito Gaston said, “Fantasy baseball players should consider themselves lucky I didn’t bring in Dirk Hayhurst to face one batter in the 9th.”  So what to make of the B.J. Frasordo closerousel… I’d pick up Frasor, Ryan then Accardo, in that order.  Frasor came into a pressure situation in the 8th.  There wouldn’t have been a save if not for him.  So there was no reason to save him for the ninth.  Ryan came in to start the ninth, but was a bit shaky.  Accardo was a fresh arm and got the save.

Jayson Werth – Hit his 10th homer on Tuesday, on Wednesday his 11th and yesterday he hit his… 12th!  C’mon, these are gimmes.

Adam Lind – Hit his 2nd homer of the Philly series as the flat-footed DH played outfield to get his bat in the lineup.  I wonder if anyone asked for his autograph in Philly by yelling, “Hey, Burrell!”

Ryan Madson – Gave up the winning run in the ninth.  In about a week, we’ll be able to do a find/replace with Lidge’s name.

Nick Blackburn – 9 IP, 1 ER.  I will see you, Mr. Blackburn, in this afternoon’s Buy/Sell.

Joe Mauer – Went 3-for-4 playing shortstop and wearing a Brendan Harris jersey.

Gavin Floyd – 7 IP, 1 ER, 7 baserunners and 2 Ks.  Strong start since he was struggling away from home.

Alexei Ramirez – Back-to-back games with a home run.  4 of 7 homers now in interleague.  Alexei likey when no one knows to throw him breaking pitches.

Derrek Lee – Hit his 8th homer yesterday.  Now batting around .335 for May/June combined.  Still nary a steal on the season.  You done drafted Lyle Overbay!

Geovany Soto – HR and steal yesterday (4th and 1st respectively).  Even if he gets to 15 homers this year, he’s still worth shopping around to see if he can bring in a better piece at a different position.

Carlos Gonzalez – HR yesterday.  Hasn’t shown much since his call-up and he’s not even playing regularly, but that could change as Rox start to get traded.

Craig Stammen – 6 1/3 IP, 0 ER.  Of course he blanked the Yanks.  In 9 games in Triple-A, he had a 7.33 ERA. Zoinks!

Ricky Nolasco – Probably sonavabenches across the board for Nolasco as he threw a one-hitter against the Sawx yesterday.  Before you start spraying the silly string that Nolasco’s back, it was a rain-shortened five inning game.

Ronnie Paulino - For those out there that change catchers like they should change their underwear, Paulino’s hot with 3 homers in two games.

Chris Davis – Hit his 13th homer yesterday as he went 1-for-4.  It’s bad when a 1-for-4 raises your average.  He now has 97 Ks on season.  Dave Kingman just shuddered.

Jose Valverde – Picked up the save.  Hawkins is now safe to drop.  Not during a trust exercise though, that wouldn’t be nice.

Luke Hochevar - 4 IP, 6 ER.  Hope he didn’t get you with the ol’ throw-a-great-game-then-a-terrible-game trick.

Krispie Young – 4-for-4, with a steal.  Unfortunately, he left the game with a leg injury.  I would’ve thought he sold his soul for more than one 4 hit game.  God knows Zobrist did.

Chad Qualls – 1 IP, 2 ER.  Final score, ARI 12, KC 5.  Kazaam!

Mark Reynolds – 12 runs and 16 hits for the Diamondbacks.  Reynolds went 0-for-6.  Ticker Tease!

Brandon Morrow – 4 IP, 2 ER, 6 Ks.  Last game he only went 3 innings.  Time before that he went 2 and a third innings.  Hello, five starts from now when he throws a complete game.

Franklin Gutierrez – 2 HRs for The Big FraGu!  Though still not worth anything outside of AL-Only leagues.

Adrian Gonzalez – 4-for-4, with a homer.  Someone didn’t get the memo about pitching around him.

Chris Young – After saying he would go to the DL, then saying he wouldn’t, it now looks like Young will hit the DL.  He takes as long to go to the DL as he does going home on a pitch.

Magglio Ordonez – Benched indefinitely by Leyland.  Are his teammates calling him Rey?  Maybe he caught BHD (Bobby Higginson Disease)…

Mel Hall – Received 45 years of prison time for out-perving former Yankee teammate, Luis Polonia.  Our hope is that ESPN doesn’t greenlight the early 90s sequel to The Bronx Is Burning.