Max Scherzer against the Phillies. If there was ever a chance to redeem yourself in losing a perfect game on the last out the very next day, this would be the pitcher and the team to do so. From a daily fantasy perspective, I’ve always said that in order for a pitcher to pay for his price, he has to have a reasonable expectation of doing 2 things: Allow 3 runs or less, and strike out 1 batter for every thousand dollars you pay. You may ask why I don’t include innings or hits in this formula of mine, and it is a valid question. For one, if a pitcher has allowed less than 3 runs up to a certain point, he has a good chance of remaining in the game. Also, if a pitcher is going to strikeout plenty of hitters, he must pitch plenty of innings, therefore that basis is completely covered. I don’t worry about hits so much, because they tend to correlate with runs scored and high contact rates (which pitchers that strike hitters out typically don’t have). So this all begs the question, “is Max Scherzer worth paying 14K for on DraftKings?” My answer is no. Now to preface this, you will never find someone that lends themselves to the “pay for pitching” mantra than myself. The reason I say no does not boil down to one simple point, but rather to many. My first reason to avoid Scherzer is that while the Phillies are the worst in basically every hitting category ever, they actually don’t strike out that much. Even against one of the more strikeout prone teams such as the Astros or Cubs, I would have a hard time giving any pitcher the reasonable expectation to reach 14 strikeouts. Another reason, maybe even bigger so than the first, is the fact that there are so many other solid, high-upside options for 3-5K cheaper. So should you pay 14K for 14 Ks? Yes! Should you pay 14K for Scherzer today? No!
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