Fantasy Baseball Advice

And we have our first Disgraceful List of the season and the season hasn’t even started yet (really).  I hate to say I told you so, so (stutterer!) instead, I’ll just quote the relevant text from earlier this preseason, “(Michael Pineda) is young so there’s plenty of time to see how well he adjusts.  For now, I’m going to let someone else take the chance on him.  What it really comes down to is it’s not very difficult to find solid starters, so there’s no reason to take unnecessary risk.”  And that’s me quoting me!  Zadow!  I feel like I’ve exorcised a demon when I tell you to avoid someone and they bust.  (Oh, and Rudy told you to avoid him too at his risky pitchers post.)  It makes me feel so good.  Schadenfreude!  Can you feel my excitement?  You know those struggling artists from touristy beach towns that draw caricatures in coal?  I’m gonna hire one of them and one of those skywriting airplanes and have them draw a giant mustache in the sky above your house.  I might also have the pilot wear a burlap sack.  Why?  Cause it’s a crazy person mocking you, that makes it even worse!  Now, if you ignored our advice and drafted him, this was actually the best case scenario, because now you can DL him, before it looked like you were just gonna have to watch him in the minors while on your bench.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw in spring training for 2012 fantasy baseball:

Andrew Bailey – Even with bad news, the Red Sox won’t accept being upstaged by the Yankees.  Bailey hurts thumb, gives fantasy owners the finger.  The injury could force him to the DL to start the season.  Oh, won’t you stay healthy Andrew Bailey, Andrew Bailey?  “Is it me or is this the news once a month for him, “Andrew Bailey has been cleared to start throwing.”  Hey, Bailey, throw already!”  That’s me quoting me from last year!  It’s same shizz different day/month/year with Bailey.  It was announced that the Sawx would turn to Aceves first if (when?) Bailey hits the DL.  Then Bobby Valentine made a wrap sandwich, because he invented them and likes to talk about that.

Daniel Bard – Ended up being named the Sawx’s fifth stahter as he was Bard from the bullpen.  Outside of AL-Only leagues, I’d be very cautious about trusting him.  He’s a bit allergic to throwing strikes and by the fifth inning Valentine may bee pollen him.  Take it, Highlights Magazine, it’s yours!

Juan Francisco – Was traded to the Braves to “temporarily” fill-in for Glass Chipper.  In the offseason, I said I wanted to take off my Zubaz and wear all the Reds rookies (Cozart, Francisco and Mesoraco) as pants.  Then I went caca-cuckoo for Cozart and Mesoraco for the next three months, but left Francisco alone because Dusty wasn’t going to play him.  Well, guess what, over-the-Internet friend, Francisco just got himself some playing time!  He has power to spare.  Last year, he hit a ball out of The Great American Ball Park going about 500 feet.  He’s also seen very few pitches he doesn’t like.  If Chipper stays on his usual 180-day DL, and Francisco hits… Well, this won’t be the last time I talk about him.  He could hit 25+ homers.

Ted Lilly – Will start the year on the DL.  He could return to the Dodgers as soon as April 15th.  We’ll see if by then the Dodgers are meeting at half court and kissing the opposing players on the cheek prior to games.

Allen Craig – To the DL.  I wonder if he ever gets confused on government documents when he has to put his last name first.

Chris Carpenter – To the DL.  You can backdate this three weeks.  No word on its expiration date.  I’m guessing we’ll see him sometime in June for a start or two then the issue will resurface.

Troy Tulowitzki – X-rays came back clean after he was beaned on the elbow by his ex-teammate Ubaldo Jimenez, which Tulo claimed was intentional.  Sounds like they’re having a hard time putting behind them their *pinkie to mouth* Rockie relationship.

Wilin Rosario – 81, 97 and 91 aren’t the three highest IQs of Jersey Shore castmates.  It’s the number of games Ramon Hernadez has played the last three years.  Wilin hit 21 homers last year in Double-A and now he’s backing up Ramon.  In 2 catcher leagues, I’d go ahead and add him in the landmark case of sooner vs later.

Corey Hart – Should avoid the DL to start the year.  Never surrender, Corey Hart!

R.A. Dickey – After he was spiked on Saturday, Dickey needed two stitches, but Dickey was seen telling girls he needed 8 stitches.

Tim Stauffer – Has been nursing a mild triceps injury.  (Or is that tricep?  Is it just a onecep?)  Could bump him back a week or so before his first start.

Michael Morse – To the DL.  Dot, dot, damn.

Mike Trout – Was optioned to the minors.  Unless the Halos reacquire Kotchman and he gives the entire team mono, we’re not gonna see much of Trout until much later in the season.

Scott Baker – To the DL.  Baker said, “I’d love to start the home opener; it’s just not wise.”  Then Pringles dropped him from their endorsement contract.

Josh Hamilton – Has groin tightness and could sit out the rest of spring training so he can go when the season starts, then have this flare up again five or six more times during the season.  Sorry to use “flare up” and “groin” in the same sentence.

Jed Lowrie – Looks like he could start the year on the DL.  If Glass Chipper and Chase Utley had a baby, it would be Jed Lowrie.

Wade LeBlanc – Marlins optioned him to Triple-A.  He’s hoping to resurface playing a funnier version of himself.

Kyle Weiland – Earned a spot in the Astros rotation.  And what did you do this weekend, Eddie Vedder’s brother?!  Huh?!  Our prospect writer, Scott, wrote, “Weiland profiles as a back-of-the-rotation starter.  He had his chance at the big league level last year, where in five appearances he posted an ugly 6.55 FIP.  He throws a low 90′s fastball along with a cutter, a curve and a changeup.  I wouldn’t mind seeing him throw one of those fastballs at Grey’s head.”  Hey, I didn’t remember reading that!

Livan Hernandez – He was released by the Astros, then two hours later showed up at the Braves training complex, and signed on to be a long man/spot starter.  The Astros only train about 20 minutes from the Braves, but it took 2 hours?  Hmm, sounds like Livan drives about as fast as he throws.

Sometimes when you take the fielding coach a little too literal, this is what happens.  Miguel Cabrera came face to face with his fielding fears and a baseball and the baseball won.  A sharp grounder shattered his sunglasses, leaving his right eye a bloody mess.  The good news for Miggy, the doctor prescribed a 15 ounce porterhouse.  No word if Miggy put it on his eye with or without A1 Steak Sauce.  Just thought of something.  Since the 2012 All-Star Game is in Kansas City, I’m sure George Brett will throw out the first pitch.  You thought he was mad during the Pine Tar Game, wait until he sees Miggy and Hanley playing 3rd.  From early reports, it sounds like Miggy will be fine, but Tigers won’t release Miggy’s face X-rays until after this posts on Tuesday, so I’m keeping my fingers crossed.  An&yswy, hiacte’s– Sorry, I’ll cross my fingers after I’m done with the post.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in spring training for 2012 fantasy baseball:

Joakim Soria – Has UCL damage, which isn’t related to damage caused by a drunk UL Washington.  Or as Van Morrison would say, “His elbow doesn’t feel good.  His elbow doesn’t feel right.  His name is Soria.  S-O-R-I-A… And his name is Soria… S-O-R-I-A…”  There was talk that Soria should’ve been traded a few years ago.  I tend to agree, you don’t have a $12 salad if you can’t make your rent, but that’s neither here nor there now.  Some reports are saying Broxton will fill in as the closer.  I think Holland will close in Soria’s stead.  If you’re desperate for saves, I’d grab both of them.  At this point, it’s not clear who will take over the role.  I think it’s only about a 55% chance for Holland to be the closer, so you better grab an umbrella.

Chase Utley – Phils are reporting that he won’t be ready for Opening Day.  Well, they’re saying doubtful, but I’m saying he won’t be ready.  He has lingering pain in his knee and hasn’t had one at-bat all spring.  If you already drafted Utley, then you had to know this was gonna happen.  Chase’s knee hit every branch on the way down the Utley tree.  Or maybe his knee wore out hoisting strippers against a wall.  If you haven’t already drafted Utley, I’d push him down a few rounds.

Hong-Chih Kuo – Mariners released Kuo after he gave up 14 runs in 6 2/3 IP.  Guess the M’s weren’t happy with the *pinkie to mouth* status Kuo.  This is the second time Kuo has battled the yips.  Maybe it’s in honor of Yip Yip, the cartoon Taiwanese dog that likes to pickle his milk bones.

Carl Crawford – Yesterday, he took 20 swings off a tee.  The day before, 10 swings.  By June, the Red Sox are gonna have a portable fan.

Corey Hart – Could play as soon as Friday in a minor league game.  No word on whether or not Corey Hart will be wearing sunglasses.

Michael Brantley – Left the game for “precautionary reasons.”  He’s listed as “day-to-day.”  He should be back in “a few days.”  The preceding was brought to you by Zagat.

Jarrod Parker – Was sent down to the minors for a black man’s first name.  That’s some cold sheeeeeeeeeet!  We’ll probably be seeing Parker in a few months once Tyson Ross and Graham Godfrey, with his loud, piercing voice and penchant for roasting opposing players, overstay their welcome.

Brad Peacock – Things aren’t looking good for my sleeper pickock.  Hoping he still makes the rotation, but at the moment it’s looking like a long shot.  He’s a top fifty prospect and breezed through Double and Triple-A last year, so I’d hold tight for the time being.  Though I am fully expecting the ax to fall on him.  Sad emoticon.

Yoenis Cespedes – Will be the A’s starting center fielder to start the season.  No word on whether Yoenis’s brothers, Nick and Joe, will travel to Japan to watch him play in the opener.

Gregor Blanco – Word is it would take a “cataclysmic event to keep” Blanco off the Giants roster.  Like Bochy finding a hat that fits him at Lids.

Rich Hill – Talk about a name from the past.  Red Sox are saying he may get in a game this month.  You know what I always liked about Rich Hill?  The Sniglets.

Travis Wood – Was shelled yesterday.  Or to put it to you all punny like, Wood was knocked around.  After the Cubs said Samardzija was set for the rotation, this isn’t great news for Wood.  Or Wood’s going limp, if you will.

Jordan Schafer – Due to a sprained hand, Schafer won’t be back into action until Thursday.  Need to put your Zimmermania on hold for now.

Skip Schumaker – Sticking with the newly established theme of guys that sound Jewish but aren’t, Schumaker has an oblique tear.  Vague!  In related news, Allen Craig’s rehab has been progressing well.  Here’s Oregon Nut Cups’ Allen Craig fantasy.  He wrote it while chasing the dragon.

Chris Carpenter – May make his spring training debut this weekend, so he might still be back for Opening Day.  I’m still no fan; not in the Carl Crawford sense either.

Tsuyoshi Nishioka – Was optioned to the Rochester Red Wings, which will soften the blow since that sounds like a Japanese baseball team name.

Vladimir Guerrero – Sounds like he might play in Japan.  If someone signs him, that’ll say something since Japanese teams are limited to only one non-native player with an L in their name.  While over there, maybe he can record an album, “Live at Vladokan.”

When Ike Davis told reporters,”Gag me with a spoon,” red flags were raised.  Why was he talking like he grew up in Reseda?  It wasn’t the dreaded Valley Fever, was it?  Like, oh my god, it might be.  Valley Fever, from what I gathered from Google, WebMD and other non-reliable sources, could knock Davis out a week, two weeks, a month, a year or for his career.  Yes, there’s a lot of space between best and worst case scenario.  Maybe you remember Conor Jackson got Valley Fever and pulled a Kotchman for a year.  The kicker for me is the Mets trainers scare the shizz out of me.  They once diagnosed Casey Stengel with the flu and he had been dead for seven years.  Right now, the Mets are saying it shouldn’t be more than a week for Ike.  I’m not moving him down my rankings yet, but if you’re drafting right now, I’d be very cautious.  Anyway, here’s some more news going on in spring training for fantasy baseball:

Corey Hart – Had knee swelling and went for an MRI.  When the trainer told Ron Roenicke Hart’s issue, he said, “Corey swelling,” and Ron said, “Donna Martin graduates.”  The MRI said (figuratively) Hart needs arthroscopic surgery and will miss the start of the season.  I’d be surprised if we see him at full speed before the third week of April.  Figure, four weeks to recoup and at least one week to go on assignment.  It’s a pretty big blow for Corey Hart and everyone that likes to wear sunglasses at night.

Rickie Weeks – From the Files of “Of Course Rickie Weeks Is Injured” comes a predictable update.  He’s injured.  Maybe if they rename his dossier the files of “Maybe Rickie Weeks Is Healthy,” he might have a fighting chance.

Jesus Montero – Took a foul ball off his mask, inspiring him to turn water into the whine, “Shouldn’t I just be hitting?”  The good news is he was catching.  Hopefully, this is a sign that Montero won’t have to wait long to get catcher eligibility.  I’m guessing with days off and days he just DHs, he’ll need about two to three weeks for 10 games played behind the plate.  The other good news, his punim is fine. 

A.J. Burnett – Broke his orbital bone during a bunting drill.  This is the worst bunting injury since a Set PA over-decorated the seaboard of The Love Boat and bunting fell on Gavin MacLeod during a dress rehearsal and nearly caused a work stoppage.  “We only have Annette Funicello until Friday; get MacLeod back on the set!”  That’s a studio exec in the 70′s.  A.J. is out until at least May.  Probably the nicest thing he’s done to fantasy owners in the past few years, so now no one in their right mind will draft him hoping for a bounce back.

Grady Sizemore – I swear Grady Sizemore’s body is older than Whitman B. Mayo, who played Grady on Sanford and Son, and that actor passed away over ten years ago.  Sizemore’s now out for 12 weeks after undergoing micro-discectomy surgery, which is a surgery performed by a miniaturized Dennis Quaid.

Vladimir Guerrero – It’s being reported that the Marlins are not pursuing Vlad.  Probably for the best.  With his knees, that chase would’ve been a bore.  Instead, the Marlins are pursuing Aaron Rowand.  That could be fun with Rowand’s tendency to run into walls.

Anibal Sanchez – Felt some soreness in his shoulder.  In related news, Grey is holding his breath.

Joel Zumaya – After he has Tommy John surgery performed by Dr. Freeze, he will attempt another comeback.  I’m guessing he’s gonna try to throw with his left arm.

Miguel Cabrera – Booted the first ball he saw at third base.  Frequent commenter, Steve, suggested he try using this glove.  Would allow him to rest between pitches too.

Alex Rios – I think most spring training numbers are meaningless, but one thing to keep an eye on is where people are batting.  Right now, Robin Ventura likes Rios in the three hole.  Giddy up!

Ryan Howard – Had a setback with his surgically-repaired Achilles because of an infection.  Maybe he shouldn’t have tried picking at his wound, yelling “Scabs here” like he was Pauly D.  The Phils are saying this will delay his original May timetable.  I’m beginning to think we should assume we’ll see Howard around the All-Star Break and anything else we get is gravy.  Billy Butler, “Did someone say gravy?”

David Wright – Sitting out the first few games of the spring with ribcage discomfort.  I’m not concerned yet.  Guess what the key word is in that sentence.  Hint:  Starts with a Y ends in a T and it’s got an E in it.

Daisuke Matsuzaka – Red Sox are saying he could be back by June.  Red Sox fans are saying, “Is this really who we’re waiting on?  Trade for someone!”

Carl Crawford – Dealing with inflammation of his left wrist.  You know what’s good for that?  Swinging a bat, if you live in opposite world.

Stephen Drew – Will probably miss the start of the regular season.  I’m thinking J.D. and Stephen’s father was Mr. Glass from Unbreakable.

Alfonso Soriano – Said he’s open to batting leadoff.  That’s akin to me telling Jessica Alba I’d be open to having sex with her.

Freddie Freeman – Partially dislocated his kneecap.  Says it should be, um, re-located shortly.  I say look under your thigh.  It’s probably right there.

Giancarlo Stanton – Mike Stanton changed his name to Giancarlo.  Just when you thought Stanton couldn’t get any sexier, he goes and changes his name to The Sexiest Name Alive, according to People Magazine.  If Molière were alive today and not writing a hacky sitcom for The CW, he’d write a play about Giancarlo, the seducer of fantasy baseballers everywhere.

After the top 20 outfielders for 2012 fantasy baseball, guess what we have here?  The top something-something’s? Cute, random italicized voice.  We have the top 40 outfielders for 2012 fantasy baseball.  That’s right, Wonderful just gave birth to Awesome.  Wanna hear something even awesomier?  I’m going to turn this to 60 then 80.  Hopefully I don’t blow my amp.  The hardest part about writing these 2012 fantasy baseball rankings posts is writing this opening.  Trying to make the clerical stuff sound less clerical, ya know?  So I just copied the openings from previous years where applicable.  As with other rankings, where I see tiers beginning and ending are mentioned along with my projections.  Anyway, here’s the top 40 outfielders for 2012 fantasy baseball:

21. Drew Stubbs – This tier started in the top 20 outfielders for 2012 fantasy baseball.  This tier goes from here until Kendrick.  I call this tier, “I’ll happily reach for one of these guys if I have to, in the non-sexual way.  Though it’s kinda sad this is the third tier of outfielders that I’m excited about.  Times is tough, yo.”  Stubbs isn’t really the same player as Fellatio Upton, so I battled with how to get him out of the same tier.  I battled myself by dunking my hands in two bowls of Jell-O, then thumb-wrestling myself to a ten round draw.  I ended up figuring it was fine to put Stubbs in the same tier but below him.  2012 Projections:  80/17/55/.240/40

22. Krispie Young – Krispie is another guy that I kinda wanted to move to another tier and he’s even pretty far below Stubbs (though it sure doesn’t seem that way in these rankings).  What Krispie has going for him that Beej and Stubbs don’t is 25-plus homer power.  He’s pretty seriously deficient in average though, and when I’m saying that compared to Stubbs and Upton, it’s saying something.  Grey said, “Something.”  See?  2012 Projections:  85/25/80/.235/25

23. Jason Heyward – This is probably the furthest I’m out on a limb with an outfielder.  He could be a worse pick than Markakis.  Last year Heyward hurt his shoulder, then Glass Chipper started questioning his manhood even though Chipper invented the oblique just so he could miss 40 games a year.  Heyward’s BABIP was obscenely low so he should hit at least 40 points higher without much effort.  Hitting for a better average with a healthier shoulder should help him build confidence, move him up in the order and hit for more power.  You could blend those variables together and you may end up with a wheatgrass/kale antioxidant health drink that is supposed to be good for you but just makes you want to vomit.  If at any point in the spring there’s news that his shoulder is still bothering him, I’ll drop him way down in the rankings.  2012 Projections:  80/22/90/.280/10

24. Howie Kendrick – I went over Kendrick’s projections in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball.

25. Shin-Soo Choo – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Gordon.  I call this tier, “I could see myself missing out on these guys because others are believing them more than me.” Most ‘perts are looking at Choo’s 2011 as an aberration.  That wasn’t Soo Choo, that was Soju.  An Asian flush with bad luck.  So last year he had a .317 BABIP (off his career rate, but not really that terrible), a 1o.4% HR/FB (again, not hideous), a 10.1% walk rate (not bad) and a 21.8% K-rate (around his career rate).  He missed a bunch of games because of injury.  If he’s healthy, he’s back to the 17-20 homer, 17-20 steal guy.  Yay.  I don’t know; it’s all right.  I’m not excited to draft him.  2012 Projections:  80/17/85/.280/17

26. Carl Crawford – Last year, things started poorly and went from bad to Mad Libs in the cliche.  Slumps get into guys’ heads and if there isn’t a big girl around to have sex with that slump can last longer than anyone wants.  I’m willing to ignore last year.  Really, I am.  Then the wrist surgery this offseason.  Damn, that wrist got me pist.  Red Sox are reporting he should be ready for Opening Day.  I’m reporting he’s going to miss a month.  There’s a small silver lining.  His wrists aren’t his legs.  Hey, I should’ve gotten better than a C in Human Anatomy!  If he falls, I could see gambling on him, but it’s probably not going to happen if you follow my rankings.  2012 Projections:  75/10/70/.280/30

27. Alex Gordon – Here’s what I said at the end of last year for Gordon, “Gordon’s line this year was 101/23/87/.303/17.  Terrific!  Wonderful!  Tonderific!  But if you peek under the hood, things aren’t as they seem.  His BABIP is .358, easily a career high in the majors.  His walk rate and line drive rate dropped from last year, and his ground ball rate nudged up.  His homers and speed look about right, but if luck goes against him those two categories could get affected.  He’s probably much closer to a .280 hitter with 17-20 homers and 12-15 steals.  With just a tad bad luck, he becomes a fifteen homer guy with 10 steals and a .265 average.  That’s far from spectacular.  That’s spectaculess.  I just made that up; you like it?  You use it.”  And that’s me quoting me!  2012 Projections:  85/20/100/.280/12

28. Brett Gardner – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Rasmus.  I call this tier, “I’m targeting these guys for my teams.  They might all end up getting sleeper posts.  You’ve been forewarned.  (Bee tee dubya, the projections in this tier are a bit optimistic, but I’m sick of hiding my excitement.  Let me free-ball and show you my love!)”  I’m unabashedly a fan of Gardner, which makes very little sense if you’ve read this site for an extended period of time because usually I ignore SAGNOF’ers and just grab one later or off waivers.  To me, Gardner is underrated, which is odd because Yankees are usually overrated.  Gardner is just an enigma wrapped inside a riddle inside a fortune cookie that reads, “Person who sleeps with scratchy rear wakes with smelly finger.” 2012 Projections:  105/8/50/.280/50

29. Jayson Werth – Ponder this, guys and three girl readers, is Werth that different from Corey Hart?  Okay, stop pondering it, your eyes are crossing.  He’s not hitting 35+ homers again like he used to in Citizens Flank, but he should also be better than last year and the Nats offense is looking solid.  Yeah, I know how weird that sounds.  Don’t point out the obvious.  2012 Projections:  75/22/90/.265/15

30. Logan Morrison – His Isolated Power was .221.  Dan Uggla’s was .220.  Paul Konerko’s .217.  Jay Bruce’s .217.  Logan Morrison only hit 23 homers last year.  He missed almost 40 games last year because of injuries and his inability to put the cone of silence on his Twitter account.  He’ll only be 24 years old for the better part of 2012 and the Miami Marlins revamped their lineup by throwing some fabulous moolah around for a World Series ring.   2012 Projections:  60/25/75/.270/5

31. Michael Cuddyer – Went over Cuddyer’s projections in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball.

32. Peter Bourjos – What does it mean that Bourjos is ranked this high?  It means we’re all screwed.  Sorry, don’t mean to yell fire in the theater of Razzball, but outfield is shallower than a conversation with a Kardashian.  I already went over my Bourjos 2012 fantasy.  I wrote it while refusing to eat at Subway because it reeks of onions.  2012 Projections: 85/15/50/.255/35

33. Alex Rios – I wrote an Alex Rios 2012 fantasy post.  It pained me to write that post and I hope you forgive me but I felt like it needed to be said.  Now please forget the apology if I’m right or forget that I wrote the post if I’m wrong.  Thanks, over-the-internet friend!  2012 Projections:  75/17/85/.270/22

34. Colby Rasmus – I’m out on serious limbs with some the players’ rankings in this tier.  Just when you thought I was totally out of my gourd with my Rios ranking, here’s Rasmus about 35 spots ahead of where I see some other ‘perts ranking him.  The key thing with drafting is you are drafting for the upcoming year, don’t try and put together a team that would’ve kicked serious booty while bagging last year’s doubloons.  That’s not going to win you something, but hopefully I just learned you something.  Hey, that sounds like a rhyme Pitbull would make.  Blah blah blah Kodak, blah blah blah Kodak.  2012 Projections:  85/22/70/.265/10

35. Corey Hart – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Ethier.  I call this tier, “I’ll reluctantly draft these guys, but I’d rather not.”  On first glance, Corey Hart’s season last year looks okay.  On second glance, his 2010 season of 31 homer, 7 steal 2010 and 2011 of 26/7 look remarkably similar — he simply had 15 less games last year.  On third glance, you see his fly ball rate plummeted and start to think his homer per fly ball rate is unsustainable.  On fourth glance, you start to wonder why you’re looking at Corey Hart’s numbers four times.  On fifth glance, there is no fifth glance.  On sixth glance, you think about how he may not break 75 runs or RBIs without Prince Fielder, fifty games of The Hebrew Herpes and the invariably injured Weeks.  On seventh glance, you accidentally hypnotize yourself and begin to cluck like a chicken in front of an audience of strangers.  2012 Projections:  75/24/70/.265/8

35 1/2. Yoenis Cespedes – I went over my Yoenis Cespedes fantasy while studying for Jeopardy!  2012 Projections: 65/20/80/.250/12

36. Nick Markakis – The last four years his homer totals have been 20, 18, 12, 15.  One of these years he may stand up and say he is Sparkakis, but until then I don’t care to gamble on a guy that is averaging 16 1/4 homers a year.  I mean, who ever even heard of quarter homers?  Those are singles, Nick.  Elevate the ball.  2012 Projections:  80/18/85/.295/10

37. Ben Zobrist – Went over Zobrist’s projections at the top 20 2nd basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball post.

38. Andre Ethier – This tier that I’m planning on missing makes an already shallow outfield that much more shallow.  I get that.  That’s why I named this tier, “I’ll reluctantly draft…”  I don’t like Ethier, but I can’t turn my nose up at dozens of guys this year.  I don’t buy into Ethier bouncing back to being a top 20 outfielder.  I say if you draft him, you’re going to get a top 30 outfielder at best.  That means he’s ranked near his ceiling.  Opportunity costs will probably have me looking elsewhere.  Hypothetical things that have no weight need to be weighed.  It’s all very scientific.  2012 Projections:  70/22/85/.295

39. Torii Hunter – This is a new tier.  This tier ends at Vernon Wells then starts again in the top 60 for 2012 fantasy baseball so I can sneak in the SAGNOF tier.  I call this tier, “Vets that I’m either lukewarm about or slightly more than lukewarm about.  Read the temperature gauge.”  The guys in this tier are mostly okay, unless you draft your team then get in a DeLorean and play out your fantasy league in 2004.  Then they’re awesome!  Maybe one of the guys in this tier has a Lance Berkman 2011 year.  There always seems to be one, but don’t say you know which guy it is — someone might be listening.  If I had to bet on a surprising year from one vet, I’d go with Torii Hunter.  Lineup’s going to be the best he’s had in a while and he can lamp in the outfield.  Will he definitely surprise like that doode from Community coming out with one of the best albums of 2011?  Nah, but the Torii Hunter gambino won’t cost you much.  2012 Projections:  80/24/90/.270/7

40. Vernon Wells – Cause crazy talk isn’t just something that I reserve for Alex Rios, I also wrote a Vernon Wells sleeper post.  No, there will be no sleeper post about Todd Helton, but that’s funny and sarcastic.  You’re a double threat!  2012 Projections:  75/25/85/.260/8

40 1/16. Michael Bourn – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until the end of this post.  I call this tier, “SAGNOF!”  I just throw all these schmohawk steals guys in the same tier, because, well, frankly, interjection, they’re the same shizz.  Bourn gets you nothing but steals.  If you think that’s a smart way to build a team, I got a Lorenzo Cain, Michael Brantley or yadda³ off waivers that says you should follow the SAGNOF theorem of evolution that says these guys ain’t got no face.  Double negatives being damned, and all.  2012 Projections:  90/2/40/.280/50

40 1/8. Emilio Bonifacio – I went over Bonifacio’s projections in the top 20 shortstops for 2012 fantasy baseball.

40 1/4. Coco Crisp – Coco Crisp could be a cheap Brett Gardner.  Yes, I’m being cereal.  2012 Projections:  65/7/50/.260/35

40 what/fraction-is-this? Nyjer Morgan – Or should I say Tony Plush?  I could see a scenario where Morgan gets confused by not seeing Fielder and Braun and steals two bases in one inning for two different teams.  Sorta like a Joel Youngblood move, only crazier.  2012 Projections:  65/3/30/.270/27

40 3/4. Juan Pierre – Doesn’t have a team yet, but if he gets an everyday job then he’ll give you the usual.  If you don’t know what Juan Pierre gives you fantasy-wise, I have a copper-plated zinc portrait of Lincoln to sell you for $19.99.  2012 Projections:  85/1/40/.285/30

40 7/8. Rajai Davis – Doesn’t have a starting job right now, but didn’t last year and stole 34 bases.  Nothing like a basestealer that has a walk rate under 5%.  Rajai, you can’t steal first base, but you can throw your elbow into a pitch or two.  Keep that in mind.  2012 Projections:  40/1/20/.260/30

With the top 40 outfielders, we’ve finished all the hitter recaps.  We meaning me, but I’ll include you.  No, that’s not a cue to try to hold my hand.  Why are you now patting my butt?  (Here’s all the final 2011 fantasy baseball rankings.  They’re also to your left… your other left.  And down.)  The pitching recap will begin next.  To recap, the end of the season rankings are based on ESPN’s Player Rater.  I felt the easiest way to keep it objective would to go this course.  This way when I say someone finished 30th and I ranked them 23rd in the preseason it carries more weight.  Does this mean I think ESPN’s Player Rater is perfect?  No.  It’s just an objective third party to see how well my preseason rankings did.  Anyway, here’s the top 40 outfielders for 2011 fantasy baseball and how they compare to where I originally ranked them:

21. Brett Gardner – Truth be told, I was raised a Yankee fan.  Don’t think it affects me for fantasy because the Yankees are usually one of the last teams I watch when there’s a full slate of games.  I just don’t like their announcers.  And I could really care less about their players unless I have one of them on my fantasy teams.  I mention this because Gardner is about the only Yankee I tend to like for fantasy more than other ‘perts.  He just seems so underappreciated.  No, he’s not going to hit 20 homers any time soon, but he gives you SAGNOF without totally killing you elsewhere.  Preseason Rank #22, 2011 Projections:  105/7/55/.270/45, Final Numbers:  87/7/36/.259/49

22. Jay Bruce – I talk about how accurate my projections are in blurbs below, so I won’t say it here besides saying I’m not saying it while saying it.  You can go ahead and put Bruce, McCutchen and Stanton in a pile of players that I’m crazy sexy excited about for next year.  Preseason Rank #25, 2011 Projections:  85/32/100/.270/7, Final Numbers: 84/32/97/.256/8

23. Adam Jones – In the preseason, I said something like I’m being optimistic with my Adam Jones projections, but I like him and I think he’s about to break out in the non-acne way.  And that’s me paraphrasing me!  Preseason Rank #44, 2011 Projections:  85/25/95/.295/12, Final Numbers: 68/25/83/.280/12

24. Carlos Beltran – Is it me or do my projections seem really accurate this year?  I’m like butter with the ER.  Preseason Rank #36, 2011 Projections:  75/20/85/.270/10, Final Numbers: 78/22/84/.300/4

25. Shane Victorino – It’s always sad for me to see a player I’ve liked for a while hit the point where I think his value is going to start declining.  2011 might be the last season of a valuable Flying Hawaiian, poi.  Preseason Rank #20, 2011 Projections:  90/12/65/.285/32, Final Numbers:  95/17/61/.279/19

26. Ichiro Suzuki – Now this schmohawk is definitely on the decline.  Take a half second off a guy’s legs who beats the ball into the ground and you get Ichiro’s 2011.  Preseason Rank #15, 2011 Projections:  85/5/40/.320/32, Final Numbers: 80/5/47/.272/40

27. Mike Stanton – As said in a previous recap, I really don’t want to talk too much about 2012 in these recaps.  Feel it defeats the purpose of what I’m trying to do, but can 2012 happen already just so I can see Stanton take the next step?  We’re talking 40+ homers and 10+ steals.  I love Mike Stanton.  Preseason Rank #26, 2011 Projections:  70/32/80/.250/7, Final Numbers:  79/34/87/.262/5

28. Drew Stubbs – As I said the other day with B.J. Upton about low average biases, Stubbs seems to fall into that grouping.  Can hit 15 to 20 homers and steal 30 to 40 bases, but that seems to go out the metaphorical window when he hits .240.  Preseason Rank #30, 2011 Projections:  95/18/65/.260/32, Final Numbers:  92/15/44/.243/40

29. Cameron Maybin – This guy scares me.  Not in the “Holy crapballs, why is there a cat jumping out a closet with creepy music playing?” way.  He scares me because I touted Maybin for a few years and he kept disappointing, then when I finally ignored him, he did well.  Maybe I should pretend to ignore Dexter Fowler next year.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 82/9/40/.264/40

30. Howie Kendrick – Went over him in the top 20 1st basemen for 2011 fantasy baseball.

31. Corey Hart – I ranked him 31st overall in the preseason and he came in 31st at the end of the year.  How about a boo-ya with a side order of boo-ya?  And to drink I’d like a shot of boo-ya with a boo-ya back!  Yeah, that’s kinda boo-ya B.S. because I told you in the preseason to not draft Hart.  Though I wasn’t completely off because he was overrated coming off a career year.  So maybe a small boo-ya.  Preseason Rank #31, 2011 Projections:  70/21/80/.260/10, Final Numbers: 80/26/63/.285/7

32. Matt Holliday – Didn’t see it coming in the preseason, but I think we’ve seen the last of Holliday’s huge production years.  He gets these niggling injuries and just doesn’t have big-time power or speed.  Preseason Rank #3, 2011 Projections:  95/27/105/.310/10, Final Numbers:  83/22/75/.296/2

33. Nelson Cruz – I’ll contest (as I’m about to do) that Cruz is actually way more valuable than 33rd overall because when he gets injured he goes down for extended periods of time and you can fill him in while getting more stats from someone else.  Preseason Rank #11, 2011 Projections:  70/27/90/.285/15, Final Numbers: 64/29/87/.263/9

34. Michael Cuddyer – Went over him in the top 20 1st basemen for 2011 fantasy baseball.

35. Nick Markakis – He’s become a guy that gives nothing special but a little bit of everything.  Versatile but boring.  Kinda like brown slacks.  I will now call him Markhakis.  Preseason Rank #45, 2011 Projections:  85/17/80/.305/10, Final Numbers:  72/15/73/.284/12

36. Matt Joyce – As valuable as Joyce was, and he was valuable when you consider where he was drafted, he was really just a 1st half player.  You kinda could’ve done better elsewhere in the 2nd half…. Okay, I wrote that then looked at his month-to-month stats and Joyce wasn’t exactly a 1st half guy as much as he was a Mr. May.  Sounds like he was swinging Dave Winfield’s shtick.  Preseason Rank #82, 2011 Projections:  40/17/55/.250/4, Final Numbers:  69/19/75/.277/13

37. Johnny Damon – On one hand, it’s weird that I didn’t rank Damon in the preseason.  On the other hand, I ranked Joyce and hoped Damon would get pushed to the bench with Sean-Rod and/or Brignac pushing Zobrist to the outfield.  On the third lesser known hand that is actually a glove on a soda can, it’s Johnny Damon so maybe I didn’t rank him because I just figured he’d be rank.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 79/16/73/.261/19

38. Mark Trumbo – Went over him in the top 20 1st basemen for 2011 fantasy baseball.

39. Krispie Young – I think January Grey might’ve been sniffing glue when he ranked Krispie 13th overall for outfielders last preseason.  January Grey, “It was a dark time.”  Preseason Rank #13, 2011 Projections:  75/25/85/.240/25, Final Numbers:  89/20/71/.236/22

40. Juan Pierre – Ha!  He was a top 40 outfielder?  Oh, c’mon.  Sure, he doubled his projected home run total, but he could’ve quadrupled it and it would still be miserable.  He was unownable for huge stretches of the season.  2 homers and 27 steals?  Seriously, c’mon.  I mean, c’mon c’mon.  C’mon!  I would’ve preferred healthy stretches of Shin-Soo and a waiver wire add to Juan “2 homer” Pierre.  Preseason Rank #40 1/8, 2011 Projections:  85/1/35/.300/50, Final Numbers:  80/2/50/.279/27