Fantasy Baseball Advice

On Monday I finished up the hitters recap with the 21 - 40 outfielders for 2008. That’s after going over the top 20 catchers, top 20 1st basemen, top 20 2nd basemen, top 20 shortstops, top 20 3rd basemen and the top 20 outfielders for 2008. Phew… Now exhale through your nose, Downward-Facing Dawg, and inhale as we look at the top 20 starters for 2008. As we went forty deep with the outfielders, we’re going to need to go forty deep with the starters. The hitters showed a definite lack of offense in 2008 so that must mean the top 20 starters are deep with quality choices, right? Look at the big brain on generic italicized voice. I based these rankings on the ESPN Player Rater, which I don’t fully agree with, but I want the rankings to be as neutral as possible. For a better player rater, download our fantasy baseball player rater. Anyway, here’s the top 20 Starters for 2008 in fantasy baseball and how they compared to where we originally ranked them:

1. Roy Halladay - When Borowski, Todd Jones and a host of other schmohawks missed the bowl for three months straight, Halladay’s 246 innings of a 2.78 ERA and 1.05 WHIP was just the kind of disinfectant your staff’s bathroom needed.  Preseason Rank #13, Preseason Predictions:  15-7/4.00/1.25/120, Final Numbers:  20-11/2.78/1.05/206

2. CC Sabathia - Nearly topped the list and he had an awful April. Take a look at this ‘pert roundtable. People were falling over themselves to unload Sabathia. He was shelled in the playoffs! He threw 600 trillion pitches in ‘07! He looks like a fat Dontrelle and now he’s pitching like one! Sometimes it’s best to hold tight. Preseason Rank #4, Preseason Predictions:  20-9/3.40/1.15/210, Final Numbers:  17-10/2.70/1.11/251

3. Tim Lincecum - Here’s a guy I warned everyone about in the preseason. Am I dumb or prejudiced against the non-mustachioed? Probably a bit of both, but I worried Lincecum would struggle a bit on a decimated team. A lack of offense when coupled with a very young pitcher… Anyway, he did fine. Obviously. Dur. Preseason Rank #31, Preseason Predictions:  10-7/ 3.75/1.25/170, Final Numbers:  18-5/ 2.62/1.17/265

4. Cliff Lee - You had to disregard everything you’ve ever learned in your life, including basic math, to trust Lee to rank this high. That’s why Karabell, the Forrest Gump of fantasy baseball analysts, was the only ‘pert to predict this. Somewhere in a rough, tumbleweeded neighborhood, Hater Bell shakes his fist at the gray sky. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  22-3/2.54/1.11/170

5. Johan Santana - Didn’t it seem like he had a mediocre year? I mean it was mediocre for him with yawnstipating wins, but it’s still top five for starters. That’s not really mediocre. Actually that’s not at all mediocre. Weird how The NY Media misinterprets things, right?  Jeter might be the tenth best shortstop in the majors and you’d think he discovered a neverending box of Dunkin’ Donuts Munchkins™. While Johan throws 200+ Ks and a 2.53 ERA in 234.1 IP, and people are wondering if he’s lost it. Preseason Rank #2, Preseason Predictions:  18-9/3.10/1.06/240, Final Numbers:  16-7/2.53/1.15/206

6. Cole Hamels - Hamels was my preseason Cy Young pick; he might have had a chance with some more run support. He finished with the second best WHIP amongst Major League starters, top ten for ERA and 66th in run support. For some runs next year, maybe he can brushback his opponents and hope they do the same to Victorino. Preseason Rank #7, Preseason Predictions:  20-7/3.20/1.10/210, Final Numbers:  14-10/3.09/1.08/196

7. Brandon Webb - Another stellar year for Webb as he led the NL in Wins. Though Webb does go through long stretches where he’s nearly unusable. In fact, if you throw out April and July, Webb had a 3.86 ERA in ‘08. That’s right; Webb’s “blah” with makeup on it, otherwise known as “pretty blah.” Preseason Rank #3, Preseason Predictions:  19-7/3.10/1.20/190, Final Numbers:  22-7/3.30/1.20/183

8. Ervin Santana - Going into the 2008, Ervin was homeschooling for the better part of two years while making Wandy Rodriguez seem like a Road Scholar. Then 2008 came and Ervin myth busted his way to solid Home/Away Splits. Now if he can figure out what the deal is with Mentos and Diet Coke. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  16-7/3.49/1.12/214

9. Dan Haren - Post All-Star break numbers were once again, “Win a Date With a Tad Mediocre.”  Preseason Rank #8, Preseason Predictions:  17-9/3.60/1.20/210, Final Numbers:  16-8/3.33/1.13/206

10. Ryan Dempster - What ESPN said in February, “Dempster has little value as a starter…” What I said to ESPN, “Stop sending me your stupid magazine. I don’t read it.” What ESPN said, “It’s free.” What I said, “I still don’t want it and why are you calling me at 6 o’clock in the morning on a Saturday?” What ESPN said, “To tell you about ESPN Total Access Rewards!” What I said, “I don’t want ESPN Total Access Rewards.” What ESPN said, “In order to get the free magazine, you have to sign up for ESPN Total Access Rewards.” I said, “I hate you.” Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  17-6/2.96/1.21/187

11. Rich Harden - “They call me, Mr. Glass” ended up staying healthy and putting together a solid year. Just remember, he had a healthy year this year and still only pitched 148 innings. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  10-2/2.07/1.06/181

12. Ricky Nolasco - In 95.2 Post-All-Star break innings, Nolasco struckout 98 against 12 walks. I’ll put it another way. Nolasco walked twelve batters in fourteen games. Here’s that same information with numerals instead of words and exclamation points. Nolasco only walked 12 guys in 14 games!!!  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  15-8/3.52/1.10/186

13. Mike Mussina - 1 ACROSS, Yankees Pitcher falls just short of 300 wins and won’t make the Hall of Fame. (FYI, Tommy John doesn’t fit.)  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  20-9/3.37/1.22/150

14. Derek Lowe - In 2007 and 2008, Lowe struckout 147 and gave up 194 hits both years. Elias Sports Bureau said this is the first time in history a pitcher has given up exactly the same amount of hits and struckout the same amount two years in a row. Okay, they didn’t say that, but it sounds like something they would say. Here’s some more things Elias could’ve said around their office last week, “For the first time since July, Ralph in Human Resources tried to fool Parking Enforcement with a homemade handicapped sign.” “For the third time in less than a week, our CEO called Jayson Stark a ‘pain in the ass,’” and “For the first and last time, John in Accounting ate Mexican for lunch.” Preseason Rank #33, Preseason Predictions:  15-7/3.90/1.30/140, Final Numbers:  14-11/3.24/1.13/147

15. Roy Oswalt - Grey’s 12-year-old cousin texted this in, “Chillax about Oswalt’s year end numbers lQQking like he continued his eversoslight steps backwards. In the 2nd half, he was DOMINANT. l8r…” Preseason Rank #10, Preseason Predictions:  15-7/3.60/1.22/150, Final Numbers:  17-10/3.54/1.18/165

16. Ben Sheets - Somehow he went the whole season without pulling a Kotchman. Matter of fact, Kotchman went the whole season without pulling a Kotchman. Luckily, Furcal picked up the “Pulling a Kotchman” slack. Preseason Rank #32, Preseason Predictions:  60-Day DL, Final Numbers:  13-9/3.09I/1.15/158

17. Edinson Volquez - I told you to pick Volquez up on March 18th so you were forewarned. But I didn’t have the foreskin to predict quite how well he would perform. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  17-6/3.21/1.33/206

18. James Shields - The credo goes, third year starters (aka starters with 40 - 70 starts of Major League experience) are most likely to breakout. As far as credos go, that’s as good as any. I love Shields because he made good on the credo.  Preseason Rank #18, Preseason Predictions:  14-6/3.75/1.10/185, Final Numbers:  14-8/3.56/1.15/160

19. Chad Billingsley - See Shields, James or one quarter of an inch above. I like Billingsley even more going forward, but there will be plenty of time in the offseason for me to extol (<–15th Century Word of the Day!). Preseason Rank #36, Preseason Predictions:  16-7/3.20/1.30/190, Final Numbers:  16-10/3.14/1.34/201

20. Daisuke Matsuzaka - In the spirit of globalization, I had my Dice-K comments translated into Japanese then translated back to English for our Razzball readers. Here’s what I was left with, “Dice-K’s outlying numbers warned of impending tsunami. Luckily Red Sox bring Hello Kitty toaster and make bread of opponents.  Sayonara.” Preseason Rank #23, Preseason Predictions:  17-7/4.00/1.25/200, Final Numbers:  18-3/2.90/1.32/154

Matt Holliday hits the 15-day DL with a strained hamstring. I wouldn’t be surprised if he just sat for a few days and pushed through it if the Rockies were in a better position team-wise. Well, ain’t that a kick in the pants? In one NL-Only league I have Holliday, I’m pretty much screwed. Some people who are out there in some leagues (this is the order I’d pick them up, but, as always, it depends on needs): Mike Cameron, Bill Hall, David Murphy, Jose Guillen, Gary Matthews Jr. or Joey Gathright. Then there’s Seth Smith, another stopgap replacement for Matt Holliday, is the rookie call-up that should be replacing him (at least against righties) while Holliday’s on the DL. Is he worth a flier? Sure, but he’s got two strikes against him. 1) The Rockies seem convinced he’s nothing more than a pinch-hitter and 2) The Rockies have options in the outfield. Hopefully you have some maneuverability so you can just pickup a hot hitter and not have to worry if he’s an outfielder. Holliday swears he’ll be back in two weeks on June 8th; he better not pull a Kotchman. Anyway, here’s what I saw yesterday:

Clayton Kershaw - The most hyped non-Mexican, non-Jew Dodgers lefty of all-time. He has the kind of stuff that can battle back from being behind on hitters. Pretty impressive debut. Of course, his ownership is contingent on the farkakteh Yahoo waiver process. I know they are reading this, because they’ve linked here before, so I’m going to explain something to them. Everyone else can skip ahead. Rudy covered this already in one post; I’m adding my two cents. Yahoo, take everyone that is sent down to the minors and pull them from waivers until they are called back up. So if they are not currently rostered and they are in the minors, then they are unavailable. Rich Hill? Yup. Homer Bailey? Yup. Sidney Pollack? Well, he’s a film director, so he should be unavailable too. I prefer everyone is available, but obviously you can’t figure out how to do that. CBS Sportsline and ESPN are doing a lot better job than you, so I’m assuming it’s a financial decision on your part. Well, financially it can’t take much programming (I’m pretty computer-stupid, so I’m not sure about this) for you to simply make everyone in the minors unavailable. This way at least there’s an even playing field. Right now, some minor leaguers are available and others are not. It feels completely willy-nilly and it causes unnecessary confusion. Why would Jay Bruce be available and Clayton Kershaw not be? There’s no reason other than a complete lack of regard for your customers. If this is not rectified by next year, I will do everything in my power to direct people to any site other than Yahoo. Okay, carry on. And thanks for reading!

Kevin Kouzmanoff - A Padres hitter besides A-Gonz that is hot. Weird! Kouzmanoff was a preseason favorite of mine because I figured he’d build on his strong ‘07 second half. Well, it didn’t work out fully like that early on, but he is getting hot now. Here’s hoping he stays hot.

Aaron Cook - Sure, he averages four Ks a game if you count the front and back of his jersey, but he can be useful.

John Maine - If I have a pitcher facing another pitcher on my team or pitching at Coors, I almost always start him. I figure there’s no reason to have a guy if you’re not going to start him. Maine went against Cook today on my ten team mixed league and it worked out fine.

Jon Lester - Make-A-Wish sends Lester back out to do battle on his own.

Ryan Zimmerman - Being outslugged by Aaron Boone. Awesome!

Corey Hart - Last year he didn’t get hot until June. Hopefully that doesn’t mean he’s going to get cold a month earlier this year.

Manny Parra - I think a minor league stint might be in his future. As he’s been pretty, um, sub-Parra.

Cole Hamels - I hate to the bearer of bad news, but knowing Hamels, a bad outing means he’s injured. I sure hope I’m wrong. In his defense, he had a ten minute delay because Carlos Lee bonked the ump with his bat.

John Smoltz - Experienced tightness in his shoulder. The Braves don’t consider it setback. Nah, why would tightness in a shoulder be a problem for a pitcher over the age of forty? I told you two weeks ago to try and trade him if you don’t need saves. At this point, I’m thinking I’d trade him for another closer if you do need saves.

Daniel Cabrera - If you have high blood pressure, you may want to consult with a doctor or Leo Mazzone before adding Daniel Cabrera to your fantasy baseball team.

Nomar Garciaparra/Andruw Jones/Rafael Furcal - When Torre was asked how he felt about the injuries hitting Garciaparra, Jones and Furcal, Torre said, “Two out of three ain’t bad.”

Justin Verlander/C.C. Sabathia - Both pitched well, neither got the win. It’s like their poor Aprils pissed off their teams and now they’re not speaking. Maybe in their next start they can get makeup sex.

Josh Hamilton - He was ejected yesterday. Let’s hope it doesn’t send him on misbehavior spiral. Hopefully he just gets another tattoo and calls it a day.

Fausto Carmona - He’s expected to miss about four weeks with a strain in his left hip. Carmona was seen muttering, “Why can’t I have hips like C.C.? He’s got them good girthing hips.” For his owners, don’t worry, get Laffey. Actually, worry.

J.J. Putz - He blew a save to give the Yanks a three-game sweep. The Mariners management is contemplating whether to outsource the team to Asia.

Jorge Cantu - He hit two more home runs yesterday. What does Florida have to do to suck? Their owner must feel like the female owner in Major League.

Evan Longoria - He gets another big late inning hit. If it weren’t for all those early and mid innings, he’d be hitting higher than .246. Longoria is going to be great. Odds are it won’t be this year. There are more Gordons than Brauns.

Carlos Quentin - While Carlos Quentin may have 14 HRs, Eric Byrnes still has better hair.

Aaron Harang - 9 Ks in 4IP. How hard do you think Dusty had to twist his arm to enter a game facing the Padres at Petco?

Corey Patterson - After going 0 for his first 8 ABs, Corey was successful in sacrificing a player to second. It’s fitting because when Red fans think of sacrificing a player, they think of Corey.

Jay Bruce - Red fans are calling for Bruce so much they sound like they’re from Jersey.

Edinson Volquez - He got Dustied today. No idea how Dusty throws a rookie pitcher out there two days after he threw more than 90 pitches. Somewhere, Mark Prior sheds a tear like a commercial Native American crying at environmental abuse.

Direct TV - I love how I watch a game for six hours and then it cuts out three minutes before Adrian Gonzalez hits a game-winning home run. Maybe Direct TV’s the mastermind behind Yahoo’s waiver process.

Martin Prado is about to become Kelly Johnson’s platoon-mate. I saw it happen to Johnson last year with Yunel grabbing at-bats and I watched Matt Diaz never get a shot against righties. This is how Bobby Cox do. Bitch and moan all you want that Johnson just has a knee injury. He’s going to sit against the majority of lefties. I can feel it coming. Even though I ranked Johnson high and liked him coming into this season, I’m glad I didn’t reach into the sixth round for him, like I saw some ‘perts do. Anyway, this is what I saw last night.

Jair Jurrjens cruised through five. Ran into some trouble and faced one too many batters. He’s looking like a decent deep league pickup. But let’s not give each other a reach around just yet, he was facing the Pirates.

Speaking of pitchers who dominated weak offenses, Oliver Perez looked like a number one. Perez looked splendiferous. (BTW, no one says or writes splendiferous — gay or straight/male or female. Is there a more useless word in the English language?)

Kendrick scored on wild pitch. How about that Twins and Angels offense? Carlos Gomez tried to bunt five times. All five went foul. Yeah, he could steal fifty. But he needs to get on base.

Was nice to see Matt Diaz hit a home run, but I’d like to see him do it against a righty. Caveat: Cox.

Corey Patterson is not going anywhere. He’s going to be a 15/35/.260 at the end of the year with 500+ at-bats.

Sticking with the Corey theme, Corey Hart stole two bases. I hope he goes for forty.

Jayson Nix hasn’t been done much to impress me thus far. He’s batting eighth and looks lost when he’s at-bat.

Andrew Miller will be good one day. Though I don’t think it’s going to be this year.

Can you guess the pitcher? 6 INN, 6 HA, 3 BBI, 3 K, 3 ER, 4.500 ERA, 1.500 WHIP — I know, you’re thinking Ian Snell pitched two days ago. It’s Gorz, and, I swear, him and Snell have the same line every start.

Hamels looked great, but…. Wait for it… Here it comes… Redding outpitched him.

Krispie Young walked three times. That’s a good sign. But the pitches weren’t close.

Mark Reynolds struckout two more times. He’s at 5 for the year. He’ll get to 200.

Brandon Lyon will be replaced sooner rather than later. Make sure you have Tony Pena.

Grey’s picks are in red.  Rudy’s are in blue.

AL Pennant Winner – The Indians, balanced offense, Pronk staying healthy and a Sabathia/Carmona 1-2 punch gets them to the Series.

AL Pennant Winner -  The Yankees.  Feel like Girardi, the young pitchers, and being an underdog for the first time in more than a decade will revive this team.

NL Pennant Winner – San Diego Padres, strong pitching and just enough offense get them through October.
NL Pennant Winner -  Milwaukee Brewers.  Feel like the Mets, Phillies, and Cubs will find a way to lose.  The Brewers have the hitting and pitching pieces (well, except a closer) - this is the year they put it together.

2008 World Series Champion – Padres’s pitching/Petco holds the Indians’s offense in check.

2008 World Series Champion -  Yankees.  It won’t be pretty but they’ll find a way.

AL MVP – Grady Sizemore, he goes 35/30, but it’s only a no-brainer when he ignites the division winner.

AL MVP -  Alex Rodriguez.  I know.  Boring.

NL MVP – Chase Utley, giving the Phillies the MVP trifecta.

NL MVP -  Prince Fielder.  He’ll hit his weight.

AL Cy Young – Erik Bedard, barely edging out Sabathia.
AL Cy Young -  Justin Verlander.  Offense gives him 21 Wins.

NL Cy Young – Cole Hamels, edges out Santana and Peavy because of the wins.

NL Cy Young -  Johan Santana.  I’ve got too much invested in him not to think this.

AL Rookie of the Year – Daric Barton, only because the Rays are a bunch of cheap bastards.

AL Rookie of the Year -  Adam Jones.   He’ll get 400+ ABs which can’t be guaranteed for other rookies.

NL Rookie of the Year – Manny Parra, he doesn’t look good this spring, but the Brewers are committed to him. The Rays should take some notes from the Brewers on how to manage rookies.
NL Rookie of the Year - Joey Votto.  Dusty will mold him.

AL Comeback Player of the Year – Zach Greinke, a 25 year old comeback player and he fizzles out again in 2009. Catch the excitement!

AL Comeback Player of the Year - Johnny Damon.  He’s got one very good year left in him.  I’m seeing .295/110/20/75/30

NL Comeback Player of the Year – Pedro Martinez, showing stretches of vintageness (is that a word?).

NL Comeback Player of the Year - Rafael Furcal, two good ankles and a contract year.

One winner will receive:- $50 Amazon Gift Certificate.

To enter, type your picks for each of the 11 categories in the comment section below by 11:59 PST Wednesday, April 3o, 2008. The winner will be the one that beats the experts’ choices. So if you get 8 out of 11, and Grey gets 4 and Rudy gets 7, you win. Ain’t that swell? (In case of a tie, one winner will be chosen at random from all winning entries.) If you want to make an educated guess, try this link. Or this link. After that, I can’t help you, cause that would be cheating.

You must be 18+

One comment per person. Duplicate or additional comments will be ignored (per usual). If you have never posted a comment before, your comment must be approved. Winners will be notified by e-mail, so a correct email address is probably the way to go.

Good luck! And go (whatever team you like)!

Because things are always changing in fantasy baseball, it’s impossible to do a definitive list of the top hundred overall for 2008 or for any year for that matter. Tomorrow, Pujols could announce he’s having his surgery to repair his injured arm and be gone for the season or he could announce that he’s having his arm replaced with an aluminum bat and he moves to number one overall. Nevertheless, here’s my 2008 fantasy baseball top 100 as of right now. (BTW, download Rudy Gamble’s projections for 2008 here.)

1. Alex Rodriguez – Dur. Projections: 120/42/130/15/.305
2. Jose Reyes – Find thirty homers later in the draft. You ain’t finding 70 steals. Projections: 130/14/65/.295/70
3. Matt Holliday – Great hitter + Coors = Fantasy Stud. Projections: 110/40/125/.310/10
4. David Wright – The Mets have a penchant to run. Don’t see Wright slowing down just yet. Projections: 115/34/120/.310/20
5. Hanley Ramirez – I’ve already explained my hesitation for Hanley. Projections: 110/17/85/.295/45
6. Chase Utley – Could he give the Phillies the MVP trifecta this year? I give him 50/50 odds. Projections: 120/32/115/.325/12
7. Johan Santana – I’m not drafting him here, but that’s already been covered. Projections: 21-5/240/2.50/.95
8. Jake Peavy — Weak hitting division, extreme pitching park, ranked #1 as last year’s fantasy player. I’m not drafting him either. (BTW, why are people ranking Peavy so much lower than Santana on their draft cheatsheets? Does everyone really think Santana will win 25 games? He’ll be great, but c’mon. Don’t believe the hype.) Projections: 20-5/230/2.75/1.05
9. Miguel Cabrera – Everything but steals. Projections: 110/37/125/.325/4
10. Prince Fielder – Him and Howard are the only ones with good odds to hit 50. Projections: 115/50/125/.285
11. Ryan Howard – See Fielder, Prince. Projections: 100/50/140/.275
12. Carl Crawford – He’s still young and he can still hit 30 home runs. Projections: 105/25/85/.305/50
13. Grady Sizemore – This is probably my preseason AL MVP. But we’ll get to that. Projections: 120/35/85/.290/30
14. Alfonso Soriano – He’s a Latin 32, but doesn’t seem to be slowing down or losing power. He might have the best preseason shot at 40/40. Projections: 115/35/75/.280/20
15. Jimmy Rollins – He’s not hitting 30 homers again. Projections: 130/22/70/.290/35
16. David Ortiz – Eligibility concerns have me passing on him, but I could understand this pick. Projections: 115/40/120/.310
17. Alexis Rios – This is who I want in every league. I have his projections at 120/32/110/.300/25. Next year he’s a first rounder. Chew on that.
18. Carlos Lee – He’s good every year and he plays. That’s reliability. Projections: 90/35/120/.295/7
19. Vladimir Guerrero – Maybe he can get an aluminum leg from Pujols’s doctor. Projections: 105/32/125/.315/3
20. Mark Teixiera – You can count on certain stats, but that includes sub-par first halfs. Projections: 105/35/115/.300
21. Nick Markakis – I will have him on every team I can. Projections: 100/27/115/.300/20 with the skill set to go way above and beyond these numbers.
22. Ryan Braun – I already told you why not to buy into the hype. Projections: 100/27/105/.280/12
23. B.J. Upton – I don’t see a huge step forward from last year. But 30/30 would still be sweet. Could easily be a 1st round guy next year. Projections: 100/30/85/.280/27
24. Albert Pujols – A high-grade tear in his elbow? A team with nothing to play for. He might not see July. Projections: 55/22/70/.330/2 and he hangs them up by July 4th.
25. Ichiro Suzuki – He’ll be batting .330 in September and I’ll still be glad I didn’t draft him. You don’t have to turn your average to eleven. Projections: 110/10/65/.330/45
26. Carlos Beltran – Is it me or is this round filled with landmines? Projections: 100/27/110/.270/18
27. Lance Berkman – A lock for 90/35/110/.280.
28. C.C. Sabathia – It’s let’s start a pitching run. Projections: 20-9/210/3.40/1.15
29. Brandon Webb – Easily could be in the top ten at the end of the year. Projections: 19-7/190/3.10/1.20
30. Erik Bedard – I give you permission to now draft a starter, if you really must. Projections: 16-9/230/3.30/1.10
31. Aramis Ramirez – Last year’s numbers aren’t indicative of ’08. Projections: 95/37/120/.305
32. Troy Tulowitzki – The Polish are hard workers. I expect Tulo to make his people proud. Projections: 115/25/80/.280/10
33. Adam Dunn – I love guys that are guaranteed 40 homers. They give you runs, RBIs and home runs. BTW, Dunn’s only 28. Projections: 100/45/110/.265/7
34. Travis Hafner – I’m probably the only ‘pert ranking Pronk this high, but I think this is the year he puts everything together. He’d be higher if he had some eligibility somewhere. Projections: 100/40/110/.300
35. Jonathan Papelbon – This is where you should draft him if you want him. I don’t. But I do think he’ll be spectacular. Projections: 5-0/90/1.10/.75/45 saves
36. Robinson Cano – My third 2nd basemen off the board. Fark you, Phillips. Projections: 100/25/100/.295/3
37. Derrek Lee – As Rudy Gamble is prone to say, fifteen steals easily turns into five when your game isn’t stealing bases. Projections: 110/30/115/.290/5
38. Garrett Atkins – Third base sure be deep. Projections: 85/34/115/.300
39. Curtis Granderson – Too rich for my blood. I’m out of the Granderson pot. Projections: 115/27/85/.280/25
40. Victor Martinez – I’m taking Cralos Ruiz in the 18th round, not V-Mart in the third or fourth. Projections: 75/25/115/.300
41. Derek Jeter – Girls draft Jeter. Don’t be a girl. Projections: 110/15/70/.315/15
42. Miguel Tejada – He tore up the winter leagues and he’s pissed off because he’s pissing clean. Projections: 90/25/100/.290/3
43. Cole Hamels – The first pitcher I could conceivably draft. Here’s what I said in January, “The future has arrived for the Phillies ace. If he stays away from injury, he battles Peavy for the Cy Young. Not sure how early I’m going to draft him, but he’ll be on one of my ’08 teams.” You see that wisdom there. But then Santana came to the NL. So, sue me, Hamels now comes in third in the Cy Young voting. Projections: 20-7/210/3.20/1.10
44. Aaron Harang – The second pitcher I could conceivably draft. Projections: 17-10/220/3.75/1.15
45. Joe Nathan – If Papelbon’s selection didn’t start a closer run, I suppose here’s a good place to look. I won’t be picking a closer until the second tier. Projections: 6-1/80/1.90/1.00/40 saves
46. J.J. Putz – Very solid number one closer for any team, except for one of mine. Projections: 4-2/80/2.00/.90/40 saves
47. Brandon Phillips – I thought about dropping him into the fifties to prove how much I want you to avoid him. Projections: 80/19/75/.240/25 and is benched in July because his slump is “all in his head.”
48. Brian Roberts – Okay, here’s the problem. One year twenty homers, one year 4. Career average of 29 steals, last year 50. In fantasy baseball, inconsistency breeds contempt. Projections: 105/10/55/.290/30
49. Alex Gordon – I love Gordon this year. Projections: 80/25/90/.280/20
50. Bobby Abreu – Everyone loves Granderson. How about you draft someone that is guaranteeing you good numbers? Projections: 120/15/110/.310/20
51. Torii Hunter – Double I is about as consistent as a 25/20 man can get. Projections: 85/25/100/.275/20
52. Corey Hart – Here’s what I said in January, “He ran like a demonfish in the first half (mostly against righties) and kept consistent power and average throughout. As much as I feel weird saying it, I think Mr. Hart is here to stay. His OBP against righties is kinda icky, but you know who else is like that, Double I. That’s right, Corey Hart is the white man Torii Hunter.” So it’s only fitting they’re next to each other in the rankings. Projections: 95/22/75/.280/25
53. Justin Morneau – Don’t think he walks enough to ever come close to another MVP. Projections: 90/32/105/.275
54. Dan Haren – He’s a bit prone to the home run ball and the move to a more hitter’s friendly park doesn’t help, but all this is negated by weaker offenses in the NL. Draft with confidence. Projections: 17-9/210/3.60/1.20
55. Manny Ramirez – I’m not high on Manny, but come on, he’s still kind of a hitting savant. Projections: 85/32/105/.315
56. Ian Kinsler – I kinda wanna have Kinsler’s babies. Projections: 110/25/70/.270/25
57. Eric Byrnes – Take Shane Victorino thirty spots later. You’re welcome. Projections: 90/20/75/.270/20
58. Chone Figgins – I already explained I don’t draft steals after Reyes. Projections: 105/5/60/.290/45
59. Magglio Ordonez – Here’s what I wrote in January, “Saw something the other day about Mags. It said he won his 1st batting title in ’07. Thought it was weird it said “1st” as if he’s going to win a second.” Projections: 100/30/110/.300
60. Russell Martin – I had to list another catcher eventually, though you should be warned. He’s not going to steal 20 bases this year. Can’t you just draft Carlos Ruiz fifteen rounds later and grab Michael Bourn to get you some steals? Geez, and I thought I was difficult. Projections: 85/20/90/.290/15
61. Francisco Rodriguez – I won’t draft a closer this high, but I will say if I were, I would not be drafting K-Rod. He’s the only top tier closer that worries me. Projections: 6-2/90/3.00/1.25/45 saves
62. Mariano Rivera – I’d rather you started a website razzballsucks.com then draft Rivera, but you do what you do. Projections: 5-2/70/2.75/1.10/40 saves
63. Adrian Gonzalez – I can’t fathom anyone hitting 40 homers in Petco, but he might get to 35. Projections: 90/33/105/.280
64. Paul Konerko – My man Paulie is dropping off draftsheets. Did he screw someone’s Moms and I didn’t hear about it? Projections: 90/35/110/.275
65. Hunter Pence – You’re drunk if you think I’m drafting him, but, ya know, he’s gotta fit in somewhere. Projections: 95/22/75/.290/17
66. Chipper Jones – Yes, he’ll only play in 120 games, but you can make moves in your league to fill in people, right? Projections: 85/25/85/.315/5
67. John Lackey – It’s not that I don’t like him because I think he’s probably going to be my preseason AL Cy Young pick, but I just don’t like AL starters. Projections: 20-5/180/3.00/1.20
68. Justin Verlander – Might be the only American League starter I’ll consider drafting. Projections: 19-7/200/3.75/1.20
69. Rafael Furcal – I would actually consider taking Raffy because his last year made him a bit of a bargain this year. Projections: 110/15/65/.285/35
70. Gary Sheffield – You need some ‘tude on your team. Projections: 90/25/80/15/.285
71. Carlos Pena – I’m predicting he’ll make fantasy owners miserable this year. Projections: 85/22/80/.260 and he falls into a platoon.
72. Josh Beckett – I was down on this schmohawk before the tender back. Now? Not with a ten foot pole. Projections: 18-9/190/3.90/1.20
73. Edwin Encarncion – I’m wild about Edwin even if he’s a total jerkoff. Projections: 75/25/85/.275/15
74. Delmon Young – I stay away from 2nd year players when possible. Delmon’s one guy I’m considering. Projections: 70/20/100/.285/15
75. John Smoltz – He seems like he’s almost as nice a guy as Vernon Wells, right? (BTW, if you need me to tell you about Smoltz, you’ve been in an Afghani cave for too long.) Projections: 16-7/160/3.75/1.22
76. Carlos Guillen – I think he might be the biggest overpriced piece of garbage since Morneau last year. Projections: 95/15/75/.300/8
77. Ryan Zimmerman – And here’s where I pass. Wrist surgery and people are drafting him like it means nothing. Projections: 90/18/90/.275/5
78. Hideki Matsui – Godzilla loves porn and I don’t mind him. So there’s that. Projections: 105/25/100/.295
79. Roy Oswalt – Ks are trending the wrong way, but he’s still very reliable. Take a middle reliever to offset the Ks. Projections: 15-7/150/3.60/1.22
80. Todd Helton – He’s getting to the point where he’s undervalued. Let’s be realistic for a second. He’s not getting you 40 homers anymore, but what he does give you is not dreadful. Projections: 90/15/90/.315
81. Chris “No B” Young – A tall pitcher with back issues concerns me, but I’d take his 22 starts over some guys 32. Projections: 15-5/160/3.00/1.10 and he only pitches in a 150 innings.
82. Carlos Zambrano – In my opinion, any guy that does what he did to Barrett you have to like. Projections: 18-7/210/3.60/1.30
83. John Maine – I love Maine this year. And not just for their lobster – oofa! I will have Maine on at least one team. You should too. Projections: 18-9/210/3.60/1.20
84. Rickie Weeks – This question still lingers, if Clint Barmes, Rocco Baldelli and Rickie Weeks board your cross-country flight, do you get off? Projections: 85/15/50/.260/22
85. Jeff Kent – At some point he’s going to get old, I think it’s coming soon. Act accordingly. Projections: 80/22/90/.300
86. Mike Lowell – His luck with runners on last year was a collision of good fortune and stoopid good fortune. Projections: 75/20/105/.280/3
87. Shane Victorino – I love Victorino. If I were a 300 lb. Hawaiian woman, Victorino and I would be living off the coast of Oahu. Projections: 115/15/60/.280/40
88. Vernon Wells – O, Vernon. Don’t suck this year. Projections: 90/30/90/.280/7
89. Jeff Francoeur – Do you think if Frenchy were popular in 2001 he would have went by Freedom? Projections: 85/25/110/.280/5
90. Chris B. Young – Krispie will frustrate for extended periods of time with swings and misses. Projections: 90/25/70/.245/32
91. Jhonny Peralta – The only thing I don’t like about Peralta this year is the spelling of his first name. He’s a big buh-Buy. Projections: 85/32/105/.270/3
92. Brian McCann – He’s the last catcher of the top one hundred (eff Mauer) so this will be the last time I tell you to draft Carlos Ruiz in the 18th round. Projections: 75/25/105/.285
93. Andruw Jones – Ok, I’m aware he reported to camp looking like Umaga. But he can’t be over the hill yet, can he? Projections: 85/32/110/.250
94. Mike Jacobs – The Marlins will give the Nats a run for most unwatchable team, though I do like Jacobs’s upside. Projections: 70/30/95/.285
95. Jim Thome – You can set your watch to his stats. Projections: 70/30/90/.265
96. Ryan Garko – Garko’s getting overlooked in the drafts I’ve seen. Watch him jump up to the fourth round next year. Projections: 75/27/90/.285
97. Josh Hamilton – Hamilton gets high on life! Projections: 70/27/80/.300/5
98. Brad Hawpe – Here’s what I said in January, “Hawpe will be sensational this year and not hit lefties. He sported a .418 OBP last year against righties. Grab Spilborghs for next to nothing and platoon them yourself, cause Spilborghs had a .426 OBP against lefties. Hawpe/Spilborghs combo projections: 105/35/110/.300/5.” I stand by that.
99. Nick Swisher – He’s pretty. Projections: 95/30/100/.275
100. James Shields – His year end numbers will blow away Kazmir’s. Projections: 14-6/185/3.75/1.10
101. Rich Hill – No top hundred list is complete without a 101st pick. Projections: 18-7/200/3.60/1.15
102. Kelly Johnson – Ok, last one, but only because I hate the way people are passing by Kelly Johnson. Look at these projections: 85/17/65/.275/12, there’s a fifty percent chance those will be better than Rickie Weeks. (BTW, as for the Weeks question above, I get off the plane. You?)