Fantasy Baseball Advice

In yesterday’s game, Matt Kemp had 2 HRs and 5 RBIs. On the season, he’s batting .383 with 3 HRs, 14 RBIs, 12 Runs and 4 steals.  The 7th spot in the order is killing his value like Daniel Craig killed the Bond series.  Kemp’s a solid choice for NL MVP and I could see him moving to the 1st round next year for fantasy baseball drafts.  He said in the preseason that he wanted to go 40/40.  Can he actually do it?  Like Chris Young, it’s a tall order.  You don’t fall into 40/40 and, in Chavez Ravine, it’s not going to be easy for the 40 homers.  But the fact he wants to steal 40 bases is telling.  Steals are partially about motivation.  Sometimes guys just don’t want to steal (see Krispie Young in ‘08).  Other times, players pile steals on to show they can (Canseco’s 40/40 year).  I doubt Kemp reaches 40 homers, but 30/30 with a .300 average isn’t crackers.  We shall call him Sizemoremore.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Glen Perkins – 8 IP, 1 ER.  You’re talking about a pitching who had a 4.41 ERA last year, but a FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) rate of 5.14.  That’s pretty bad.  Okay, I’m being generous.  That’s awful.  Yes, he was lucky to only have an ERA of 4.41.  His MOLLY (Mitigating Of Lousy Loathsome Yuck) was 7.  That means he got pretty lucky.  So far this year his MOLLY is 9.9.  His BABIP has been insanely lucky so far, his fly balls are all over the place yet falling into fielders’ gloves.  He’s due for a regression.  If you own him, you’re bound to get Mollywopped.

Ricky Romero – 7 IP, 0 ER.  To answer 95% of the questions off the bat, he’s better than Perkins.  We thought at first that he might be an old-school Joker (BLAM!) but he has a fairly sustainable BABIP, his K/9 could get better and his average against is in line with norms.  His walks are very low (for him), and he’s left a lot of guys on base, so he will see a correction in his future (SMACK!), but his FIP is only 3.86.  You feeling stressed with Baker, Parra and Dice-K?  Might want to try a little R & R. (POW!)

Rick Porcello – 7 IP, 1 ER.  He’s matchups material in 12 team and smaller leagues.  He’s very young, so Mike Seaver-sized growing pains should be expected.  6 innings, three earned, four Ks should be his typical line.

Adam Jones – Left with a sore hamstring and bloodshot eyes.

Manny Corpas – Kazaam!  Don’t you just love Clint Hurdle anointing him closer then bringing him into this game?

Edinson Volquez – 6 IP, 1 ER, but gave up 5 walks.  I hate to rain on your fantasy parade, but Volquez is still not pitching well.  You can’t walk 5 guys in 6 innings and win… Unless, of course, you’re playing the Astros.

Cody Ross – 3rd HR.  Could he be this year’s Nady?  Well, if he gets real lucky on average.  He could hit .260 and 25 HRs aka 90% of the outfielders on waivers in 12 team and smaller leagues.

Randy Johnson – 7 IP, 0 ER, 7 Ks, 1 Hit.  Didn’t hurt that no one on the Diamondbacks is currently hitting, but Randy’s still very capable of these games.  Unfortunately, he’s now capable of the 7 run disaster he threw last time out.

Matt Garza – 5 2/3 IP, 7 ER.  It’s becoming a broken record, but he was also a risky pitcher.

Javier Vazquez – 6 IP, 0 ER, 8 Ks. Since his breaking pitches went up, he also showed up on the risky pitchers post.  But so far JV has been, like ohmigod, straight varsity.

Raul Ibanez – HR and batting .386.  I wasn’t a huge fan of his coming into this year… I mean, I liked him, but he is what he is.  Anyway, one league where my team is doing abysmally, he’s been that team’s one bright spot.  If he can now send a memo to Prince, Reynolds, Bruce and Alexei, that would be swell.

Chris Iannetta – Iannetta answers all Razzball readers who were looking to drop him with a HR yesterday.  Now if he can get 28 more hits this year, he’ll have those 30 HRs you covet.

B.J. Upton – Left with quad tightness.  Looks like he now has an excuse for his lollygagging.

Kyle Davies – 6 IP, 3 ER, 8 Ks.  If he gives you that line every time out, you have to be happy.  Not happy happy, but “Hey, it’s Kyle Davies, I’ll take it” happy.

Gavin Floyd – 7 IP, 2 ER.  Ted Nugent.  Is the answer to, “Who could persuade me to pick him up?”

Jarrod Saltalamacchia – With that last name would it have been too much to go with the standard Jared or even Jarod?  His saving grace so far this year is Teagarden hasn’t been much better.  I’m going to suggest you punt Salty by next Sunday if he doesn’t breakout out of his funk.  The only reason why I’m being so patient is A) He’s a catcher, so if he only hits 15 HRs this year, he’s still worth it.  B) He’s talented in a great home park and in a stacked lineup.  C) No C, but you could break B up into a few parts if you’d like.

Chris Davis – Benched yesterday.  If he ends up the biggest bust of the season, we’re gonna have to get a collection together to fly someone to have a “word” with Bill James about his Davis preseason projections of 107/40/118/.302/8.  I think we should send Mr. Met.  Bill will never expect anything.

Now it’s time for everyone’s favorite game, Fantasy Baseball, Fun With Numbers.  Ding, ding, ding… Bassoon… Triangle!  Triangle!  Triangle!  Cow bell!  More cow bell!  One last ding.  In today’s installment of Fantasy Baseball, Fun With Numbers, we’re going to look at some outfielders and try to figure out if maybe the numbers tell a different story than their names tell.  Anyway, here’s the latest in Fantasy Baseball, Fun With Numbers:

Player A – Last season, 95/17/71/.303/29
Player B – Last season, 112/22/66/.280/12

Player A is Johnny Damon, Player B is Curtis Granderson

Player A – In 362 at-bats Pre-All Star, 50/4/39/.285/23
Player B – In 379 at-bats Pre-All Star, 50/5/31/.253/21

Player A is Alex Rios, Player B is Carlos Gomez

Player A – In 248 at-bats Post-All Star, 36/9/39/.278/9
Player B – In 268 at-bats Post-All Star, 46/9/25/.299/13

Player A is Krispie Young, Player B is Matt Kemp.

Player A – In 218 at-bats Post-All Star, 42/9/36/.335/3
Player B – In 198 at-bats Post-All Star, 46/10/37/.288/3

Player A is Andre Ethier, Player B is Mark DeRosa

Player A – In 557 at-bats last year, 66/15/84/.293/7
Player B – In 575 at-bats last year, 80/10/69/.290/14

Player A is Garrett Anderson, Player B is Delmon Young

Player A – In 356 at-bats last year, 52/15/42/.250/1
Player B – In 340 at-bats last year, 53/20/55/.235/2

Player A is Justin Upton, Player B is Jim Edmonds.  This is not an endorsement of Jim Edmonds, but a warning on Upton.

Player A – In 502 at-bats last year, 74/17/61/.249/6
Player B – In 461 at-bats last year, 59/22/73/.260/6

Player A is Jeremy Hermida, Player B is Cody Ross

Player A – In 221 at-bats Post-All Star, 30/7/29/.299/11
Player B – In 231 at-bats Post-All Star, 38/4/20/.290/15

Player A is Lastings Milledge, Player B is Jacoby Ellsbury

Player A – In 247 at-bats Post-All Star, 38/11/35/.296/2
Player B – In 251 at-bats Post-All Star, 43/9/29/.311/14

Player A is Josh Hamilton, Player B is Shane Victorino… VICTORINO!

Late Sunday night, C.C. Sabathia was traded to the Brewers for the power-hitting prospect, Matt LaPorta. Since a 7.76 ERA in April, Sabathia has put up a 2.44 and a 1.90 in May and June respectively. In May and June, he had a 85/15 K/BB ratio. In interleague, 4 ER is 23 IP. However you look at the numbers, Fatty Fat Fat can pitch. In NL-only leagues, you drop your whole wad to acquire him. If your wad isn’t big enough, you trade to acquire Sabathia, if you need pitching. There’s no reason to think he’ll be anything less than dominant moving into the NL, unless Prince talks Sabathia into his new diet plan. Fielder, “Do you know the amount of trans fat in McDonald’s hamburgers?” Sabathia, “Nuh-uh. But I hope it’s a lot!” Now the Brewers just need to hire a bench coach to make sure Prince and Sabathia are never sitting on the same side of the bench. Oh, wait, I know who can do it — Seth McClung. He likely loses his rotation spot, but if that hurts your fantasy team, you got bigger problems. As for Matt LaPorta, he’s a power-hitting outfielder who should get the call up to the majors sooner rather than later. He was pegged as a three-outcome guy, see Dunn, Adam. It looks like he cut his Ks this year so maybe he’ll only be a two-outcome guy. Mmm…. walks and homers. That sounds delicious. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

J.J. Hardy – Hit two more home runs yesterday. Four weeks a year, J.J. Hardy reminds me of a young Miguel Tejada. Twenty weeks of the year, he reminds me of a muy stale Tecate. Imagine you’re a teacher and four weeks a year you teach the students well, knowing they are the future and blah-diddy, blah blah, then for the rest of the school year you just phone it in… Actually, now that I think about it, most of my teachers didn’t even make an effort four weeks a year. Well, there goes that argument. I suppose in many ways it’s better that Hardy gets all of his prodcution out of the way, now you can trade him in three weeks and get someone who will continue to produce.

Scott Linebrink – Got the save yesterday. As Hater Bell pointed out on Saturday, Bobby Jenks is hurting a bit right now and is no guarantee to be fine. He may be out until the All-Star Break. If you consider yourself a save vulture, this is old news. Go take a nap!

Cody Ross – Knocked in something like 55 runs in the four game series in Coors. Meanwhile, back on earth, the Marlins are looking to trade for a center fielder. That’s right; Cody Ross’s 15 home runs are so quiet his team doesn’t even know about them.

Juan Rivera – Mentioned him last week as a guy that could get hot and hit 15 to 20 home runs. He currently has 2 home runs; yesterday he hit his second of the week. (BTW, because I type with two fingers, yesterday is a super easy word to type. My WPM would probably be close to 60 if someone asked me to transcribe “Yesterday.” Since it seems like a pointless exercise and I don’t like The Beatles, I wouldn’t do it unless the money was right, which brings me to my reality show idea, Insipid Proposal. It’s Indecent Proposal for the easily entertained. You offer someone a penny to walk around the block. If they refuse, you raise the amount of money until they accept. I didn’t think they’d walk around the block for less than a dollar, but, wow, sixty-five cents! This show isn’t about skill, it’s about inanity. Now someone needs to make this happen.)

Oliver Perez – Perez and Kyle Kendrick in a pitcher’s duel? That’s why they play the games.

Nick Markakis – He is Sparkakis! 13th HR of the year and Markakis is a 2nd half player. Well, guess what? It’s the 2nd half.

Edinson Volquez – Got the win yesterday with 6 IP, 3 ER and only 3 Ks against the Nats. This shouldn’t be viewed as a good start. I’d still be selling.

Evan Longoria – 16th HR, he’s looking 2/3 Braun and only 1/3 Gordon or Ryan Braundon.

Chris Volstad – The Marlins pitching prospect was called up the other day and threw two innings of middle relief yesterday. Volstad will get the start on the 11th against the Dodgers. In a keeper league and an NL-only league, Volstad probably is gone by now. If I had room in a deep mixed league or if Yahoo adds him before the 11th (<—doubtful!), I’d take a flier, but keep expectations in check. Personally, he strikes me as Derek Lowe — third starter stuff.

Aaron Cook – I benched him in the one league I have him because the Broncos-Fins games the previous three days were out of control on offense. Cook ended up throwing 7 1/3 IP and 7 ER, but it would’ve been five if not for Cody Ross’s home run in the 8th. Everywhere you look, there Cody is.

Nate Robertson – 9 IP, 1 ER, one God-awful Mariners lineup.

Jon Garland – Garland a Tinseltown success! 9 IP, 1 ER, 3 Ks in under 100 pitches. I actually yawned when I wrote that. Then again, it’s after 10pm on Sunday and I’m not really a night person. Not so much a morning person either. I’m an afternoon person. After 2pm and before 5pm, I’m pure razzle-dazzle.

Michael Bourn – Had an 0-for-7 yesterday with 3 Ks. I’m surprised how little the mainstream media is covering this, but Bourn’s actually putting together a tremendous Razzball season. 38/4/15/.218/76 Ks. He’s no Tony Pena Jr., but it’s nothing to sneeze at. (Not to mention, if you were to sneeze at him, from the way his season is going he’d probably get pneumonia from your sneeze germs.)

Today, I noticed my diploma from the College of Fantasy Baseball at Charleston was a bit dusty and hanging crooked. So, I removed it from the wall, gave it a spit shine, polished the wood frame and fixed the wire so it would hang straight. Before I returned it to its rightful place next to my framed TV Guide cover of Miss Piggy and Kermit, I took a hard look at that diploma. I thought back on of all my classes with Matthew Berry, who insistently hit on all of the undergrads, male or female. I reminisced about hanging in the CFB quad with Rudy as we hacky-sacked and discussed a classmate’s trade of Alfonso Soriano for Dustin Hermanson. I remember being young and free and unable to get laid. Now many years later, and still unable to get laid, I miss those days. I miss the carefree attitude. The excitement I felt when a player would get hot and I would think he can hit .800 for the year. Or the frustration when a first round pick went 1-for-5. “Why can’t they go 4-for-5 every day,” I would yell at Prof. Berry. Alas, the highs and lows are gone. But, thankfully, in its place is patience. So now I know Robinson Cano refuses to hit in the first half of the season. This season is no different. Last year, post All-Star Break he went 53/13/57/.343. Pre-All-Star break, in almost 50 more at-bats, he went 40/6/40/.274 and three of those home runs came in July. In ‘06, more of the same shizz. This would make him a prime Buy Low guy. Hmm… Maybe those fourteen years weren’t wasted getting my CFB diploma. Anyway, here’s what I saw yesterday:

Troy Percival – As mentioned in the comments yesterday, Percy hurt himself and Wheeler came in to finish out the game. If Wheeler’s gone, go for Reyes if you have room.

Melky Cabrera – Of course he goes 2-for-4 on my bench. I love your name, Melky, I hate what you do to me.

Joba Chamberlain – He’s going to make his first major league start next Tuesday. This is subject to verification because I heard it from the Orioles announcers, who also manage to find positives about Mora, Millar and Ramon/Luis Hernandez, so they’re not that reliable. Though I will say they are a lot better than the YES announcers. Seriously, when I was a kid we had Rizzuto calling a black guy White and talking about huckleberries. This is not nostalgia talking. Scooter got into the Hall of Fame because of that nonsense (not officially, but still). Where have all of the good announcers gone? YES, I’m talking to you, Michael Kay.

Andy Pettitte – Rudy swears by this guy in deep leagues. I think Rudy’s caca-cuckoo. You make the call!

Adam Wainwright – You know what Wednesday means, right? Top Chef and The Real World: Hollywood! It also means a bunch of my pitchers went today, but I guess that’s more of a coincidence than anything. Wainwright does no wrong! It’s kind of a pun. Now groan!

Jeremy Guthrie – Another Grey pitcher!  I like him more than most and less than his Mom. Go figure!

Zach Greinke – Rudy gave me this schmohawk for Melky. Rudy has since dropped Melky. Wow, who’s winning this trade? Rudy’s been Greinke’d! (Yes, it’s a verb now.)

Jermaine Dye – Hit a home run yesterday. Last month, I picked him off waivers in my ‘pert league. I thought it was a bit crazy at the time that he was dropped, but since then Granderson’s been traded for Johan, and Rios was dropped by a team that held onto David DeJesus, so you just never know.

Chase Utley – You want regrets? I have a few. One is not having Utley in any league. I think I only could’ve had him in one league because of where I drafted. Alas… Nothing.

Jose Reyes – He’s at 7/16 and .279. Weren’t people saying he’s having a bad year? I love Reyes. (BTW, wouldn’t it be great if someone drafted Jose A. Reyes with their first pick? “What do you mean he’s only elgibile at catcher? He’s 0-for-his last two seasons? No, there’s got to be some kind of mistake. Wait, I’ll take a Molina!” “Which one?” “Um…. Alfred?”)

Cody Ross – 2 home runs. I wonder if his last name used to be Rosenweig.

Jo-Jo Reyes – Another guy I’m fond of, but I don’t have him any leagues. Yet.

Jason Giambi – Here’s my theory: they tested Giambi for ‘roids in April.

Joe Saunders – 5 ER in 5 IP. There’s a correction to ease your trigger finger about picking him up.

Jake Peavy – Had a promising sideline throwing session and might be back as early as this weekend. Figure he’ll be out at least 10 more days but, nonetheless, this is best case news for Peavy owners. This might be the last time you can get Peavy at a discount.

Pitching – We’d rave more about Bedard, Halladay, Harden, and Zambrano if it weren’t for the fact that Lowe, Wakefield, and Suppan also pitched well. You know it’s an odd day when San Francisco scores more than both teams combined in the majority of games.

Travis Hafner – He’s shown nothing so far and is playing with a bum shoulder (2 cortisone shots and counting). Evidently sore shoulders are harder to play with than high-grade tears of the elbow. When you start your career as a 27-year old DH, the clock’s ticking and it’s already a quarter to 12. Like a comet with a really big head, Pronk appeared out of nowhere, shone brightly, and seems to be disappearing just as fast.

Rafael Soriano – Picture John Smoltz is Nic Cage. Now picture Soriano is a bird. Okay, now picture Manny Acosta is a brown jacket. Finally, Will Ohman is a grey shirt. Okay, here’s the Braves closing picture.

J.R. Towles – 109 AB hitting .147. No SB. Makes you long for the salad days of Brad Ausmus.

Bowden Fluffer (noun) – A young, nubile outfielder that gets one all excited about their 5 tools but never fulfills the promise. See Justin Upton (May=.203, 1 HR, 34 Ks), Adam Jones, Cameron Maybin, Felix Pie, et. al.

The first season of Fantasy Razzball – a fantasy baseball game where you try to manage the worst team possible – has been quite the trip. Never have players such as Brian Bixler (backup Pittsburgh SS – 41 AB, 0 HR, 0 RBI, .195 AVG) and Kyle Kendrick (he of the 1.81 WHIP) been so celebrated. Never has unforeseen success like Cliff Lee and Chad Gaudin been so derided.

At about the 4 week point, our Razzball leader is baseball card blogger Cards in the Attic with 88 of a potential 120 points (standings here and at bottom, click thumbnail on right for rosters). The Aardvark Trading Company hasn’t been playing scared – he’s leading the league in At-Bats (one of 3 above the 752 pro-rated minimum) and 4th in innings pitched. It’s just that his team is playing like a whole bunch of Billy “Fuck Face” Ripkens. Led by staff aces Matt Morris (3 Losses, 9.15 ERA, 1.98 WHIP) and Matt Chico (4 Losses, 6.04 ERA, 1.55WHIP), the AardvarkTradingCo.Com is setting the pace (or is it trailing the pack?) with 50 out of a possible 60 pitching points.

Yours truly is in 2nd place as my team has cooled off (warmed up?) after a torrid (horrid?) start. Damn you John Denks and Pat Maholm! Rotoprofessor is in 3rd place and our teams are performing quite similarly. We’ve done a bit better in offense with 42.5 and 44 points, respectively, managing some rather low HR/RBI (8/63 and 7/71) and awful (awesome?) batting averages (.237 and .235). Hitting MVP’s include Mike Lamb (1B/3B, .182, 0 HR), Brian Bocock (SS, .172, 0 HR, 2 RBI, 22 Ks), Travis Buck (OF, .154, 0 HR, 6 RBI, 20 Ks), and Cody Ross (OF, .146, 41 AB, 1 R, 0 HR, 2 RBI).

Underdog entry Josh the Non-Blogger has been the overachiever (underachiever?) managing 4th place with a well-balanced squad. Greener On The Other Side and Sweet Lou’s Defunct Baseball Lab have struggled out of the gate with ABs – falling 100+ below the necessary pace (pro-rated 5200 team AB) and seeing their HR nearly double after the adjustments were made. Fantasy Baseball Generals has struggled with a pitching staff that doesn’t realize it is supposed to suck – don’t take my word for it, here is their commentary on it.

Should be interesting to see how the season progresses. It’s a lot tougher to maintain a lead when your best players are the most likely to be benched, demoted or released (see Matt Morris).

(Click to expand)