Fantasy Baseball Advice

Mo ACL, Mo Problems

May 04, 2012 By: Grey Category: 2012 Fantasy Baseball 256 Comments →

Even King Mo, Thy Saver of the Throne, Sire of Sutter, Haver of Fingers, Tester of the Quiz, Nowhere Near the Stench of the Wickman is not immune to the closepocalypse that is upon us.  The plague of ninth inning locusts strikes all that cross thee path!  What?  I was pouring out some Olde English for the brothers who aren’t here.  Mariano Rivera was hurt shagging fly balls.  Last person hurt like that was Jenna Jameson.  It didn’t look good, as he was carted off in pain, and it turned out even worse, as he was diagnosed with a torn ACL.  David Robertson should’ve been owned already, but here’s a real reason to, you save vulture.  This is frustrating not because I owned Rivera.  I don’t; I don’t believe in $12 Salads, but someone is lucking into Robertson, who could end up one of the best closers in baseball this year.  If you’re really hurting for saves, it’s worth a speculative grab to pick up Rafael Soriano.  The Yankees would have to be five cookies short of a potential Biggest Loser contestant’s breakfast to skip K-Rob for Soriano, but he does have closer experience.  Whatever that means nowadays.  After the closepocalypse, half the league’s pitchers have closer experience.  Juan Cruz has it now!  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Pablo Sandoval – Wanna hear something freaky?  You have a third nipple!?  No, Random Italicized Voice.  Almost exactly one year ago, Pablo Sandoval broke the hamate bone on his other hand.  (And less freaky is Ryan Zimmerman was also injured that week.)  I suggest next year, for the week of Cinco de Mayo, Pablo Sandoval go out of town.  Maybe Cozumel.  Have some margaritas, win some wet t-shirt contests, have unprotected sex — Really get the full Mexico experience!  Then return a week later healthy.  The fact that Sandoval broke his hamate bone two years in a row makes me think he should have them removed (then BBQ them and sell them at a county fair).  The surgery is not unheard of, Tabata had the hamate bone removal surgery done in the minor leagues (then used it like a wishbone and hoped his wife would stop thinking she’s remaking Raising Arizona.  BTW, his wife is 46 years old?  And Tabata is 23?  A Latin 23 may not do this guy justice, which is the key word.).  If Sandoval keeps the hamate bone, then I’d be concerned this could keep happening.  Either way, he’s out for 6 weeks.

Conor Gillaspie – Should replace Sandoval for the majority of the playing time.  Conor Gillaspie plays 3rd sack.  Me myself, I like to max.  Red-Bone booties, I’m out to wax!  Seriously, what did we do without Google for song lyrics?  Did everyone sound like my uncle who sings three words of every song then mumbles the rest?  Mumble, mumble, mumble, I can’t go for that.  No can do.  Gillaspie has a little bit of nothing going for himself outside of average.  He was hitting .356 in Triple-A.  That was inflated by his BABIP, but he should be able to hit around .280.  He has next to no power, and his speed isn’t that impressive.  You can do better, Marvin’s Room. (Maybe the best song of the last year.)

Heath Bell – Ozzie says Bell is still his closer.  He also praised Castro and disparaged gays, so, ya know, grain of salt.

Edward Mujica – Recorded the save yesterday but Cishek (who I think will get saves) and Bell were unavailable.

Brandon Morrow – 9 IP, 0 ER, 3 baserunners, 8 Ks.  Not only did he throw a shutout, but he didn’t throw any walks.  Can he pitching coach Scherzer?

Albert Pujols – 0-for-3, dropping his average to .202.  Can’t they pinch-hit Maicer Izturis for him?

Ernesto Frieri – Yesterday, Albert (not Pujols, the writer for our site) called Frieri the “closer of the future” for the Padres.  Then Frieri was traded to the Angels.  I don’t think he’s the closer of the future for the Angels, but “setup man of the future” doesn’t have much of a ring to it.

Adam LaRoche – Sat out yesterday with oblique soreness.  That dreaded, extremely vague soreness again!  I wouldn’t be surprised to see him miss a few games.

Ross Detwiler – 6 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 6 baserunners, 2 Ks.  He was in last week’s Buy.  Don’t make me go back there!

Joe Blanton – 9 IP, 0 ER, 3 baserunners, 6 Ks.  In related news, Halladay left the Phillies for a few days for a personal reason.  He didn’t say why except, “Yo, Joe Blanton got this.”

Laynce Nix – 2-for-3 with a homer.  Superfluous Y’s rejoice!  In chorus, “Because!”

Coco Crisp – Headed to the DL with an inner ear issue.  Coco Crisp says he keeps hearing a snap, crackle, pop.  In his place, Michael Taylor is joining the A’s, but no one seems thrilled about ever playing Taylor in the majors.  Pretty ironic that he was once traded for Brett Wallace, though no one outside of the British really knows what irony is.

Randall Delgado – 8 IP, 2 ER, 6 baserunners, 5 Ks.  He’s looked like anything but the top prospect he is until this game.  I’m not buying quite yet in most mixed leagues, but I’m watching very carefully.

Ryan Vogelsong – 7 IP, 1 ER, 12 baserunners, 5 Ks.  He looks like a safe, non-threatening number five starter without too much upside or downside.  Kinda like the pitching equivalent to doctor’s office music.  “Hey, while I have this molar extracted, what’s that playing?”  “It’s Vogelsong.”

Jason Kipnis – 2-for-3, 2 runs, 4 RBIs and his 4th homer.  His bumper sticker reads, “Why can’t a nosh be posh?  Kipnis!”  His Jason Kipnis fantasy reads like that.

Pedro Alvarez – 2-for-4 with another homer.  He’ll be in this afternoon’s Buy/Sell.  Hint:  He’s not a sell.

Andrew McCutchen – Left yesterday’s game with a stomach bug.  Hopefully it’s not a tapeworm.  Those things are nasty.  This girl I know decided to cure her own salmon and left it on the counter encased in salt.  Well, flies dropped some larvae in the lox and she had worm squirts for days.  Okay, when I started that story it seemed appropriate.

Erik Bedard – 5 IP, 2 ER, 7 baserunners, 11 Ks.  Eleven Ks over 5 innings is nice.  His 37 Ks over 34 innings is very nice.  His health, well, it’s good for now.  I’m not a big fan because every time I seem to get invested he breaks down, but his Ks have me intrigued, and whenever I say intrigued in my head I hear the Comic Book Guy.

Jose Tabata – 3-for-5 with a steal.  He raised his average over 100 points in the last ten games.  He’s not going to be in this afternoon’s Buy/Sell.  Wanna know why?  Cause I’m telling you now (actually I told you two days ago).  He’s hot.  Pick him up.  Go now.  This post will be here when you return.

Chone Figgins – 0-for-4 with his average falling to .189.  They really need to DFA this no-longer-young brother.  And lose Smoak while you’re at it too, M’s.  In fact, start over with Carp, Ackley, Montero, Seager and Ken Griffey Jr. Jr.

Allen Craig – 4 for his last 9 with 3 RBIs.  Potatoes to chips, this doode came back from the DL like a flaming ball of yarn.  See, if yarn’s on fire, it would roll out and the hotness would spread, which in hitting terms is good.  Makes total sense.

Bryan LaHair – 2-for-4 with his 7th homer.  The Cubs shouldn’t be thinking about how to make room for Rizzo.  They should be thinking about how to erect a giant statue of LaHair, then accidentally tip it over on Alfonso Soriano.  Two birds, one stone (or granite).

Ryan Dempster – 8 IP, 0 ER, 4 baserunners, 6 Ks.  First game back from the DL + In a tough park for pitchers +  Against a tough offensive team = Chumlee.  Hmm, math is wrong there.  Meant to add up to SONAVABENCH!

Carlos Marmol – Zero outs recorded, 3 unearned runs (1 earned) and 4 baserunners.  There’s no saying exactly what’s wrong with Marmol, but he’s not himself (dur!).  Sveum says he could replace Marmol from the closer role (dur-dur!).  I want to say bench Marmol in most leagues, but he looks like he’s headed for a trip to the Disgraceful List.  Rafael Dolis would be the pickup, but he’s been far from spectacular.  He hasn’t been craptacular though either.  Kerry Wood isn’t a bad specloselation.  James Russell is a deeper SAGNOF specloselation pick.  He’s been great so far, but he’s a lefty.  It’s basically a total mess of a closerousel shituation.  Now I will await Guinness Book of World Records to crown this blurb for the most portmanteaus ever used in a single blurb.  *finger tap*  Waiting…

Top 40 Outfielders for 2012 Fantasy Baseball

January 26, 2012 By: Grey Category: 2012 Fantasy Baseball Draft, 2012 Fantasy Baseball Rankings 93 Comments →

After the top 20 outfielders for 2012 fantasy baseball, guess what we have here?  The top something-something’s? Cute, random italicized voice.  We have the top 40 outfielders for 2012 fantasy baseball.  That’s right, Wonderful just gave birth to Awesome.  Wanna hear something even awesomier?  I’m going to turn this to 60 then 80.  Hopefully I don’t blow my amp.  The hardest part about writing these 2012 fantasy baseball rankings posts is writing this opening.  Trying to make the clerical stuff sound less clerical, ya know?  So I just copied the openings from previous years where applicable.  As with other rankings, where I see tiers beginning and ending are mentioned along with my projections.  Anyway, here’s the top 40 outfielders for 2012 fantasy baseball:

21. Drew Stubbs – This tier started in the top 20 outfielders for 2012 fantasy baseball.  This tier goes from here until Kendrick.  I call this tier, “I’ll happily reach for one of these guys if I have to, in the non-sexual way.  Though it’s kinda sad this is the third tier of outfielders that I’m excited about.  Times is tough, yo.”  Stubbs isn’t really the same player as Fellatio Upton, so I battled with how to get him out of the same tier.  I battled myself by dunking my hands in two bowls of Jell-O, then thumb-wrestling myself to a ten round draw.  I ended up figuring it was fine to put Stubbs in the same tier but below him.  2012 Projections:  80/17/55/.240/40

22. Krispie Young – Krispie is another guy that I kinda wanted to move to another tier and he’s even pretty far below Stubbs (though it sure doesn’t seem that way in these rankings).  What Krispie has going for him that Beej and Stubbs don’t is 25-plus homer power.  He’s pretty seriously deficient in average though, and when I’m saying that compared to Stubbs and Upton, it’s saying something.  Grey said, “Something.”  See?  2012 Projections:  85/25/80/.235/25

23. Jason Heyward – This is probably the furthest I’m out on a limb with an outfielder.  He could be a worse pick than Markakis.  Last year Heyward hurt his shoulder, then Glass Chipper started questioning his manhood even though Chipper invented the oblique just so he could miss 40 games a year.  Heyward’s BABIP was obscenely low so he should hit at least 40 points higher without much effort.  Hitting for a better average with a healthier shoulder should help him build confidence, move him up in the order and hit for more power.  You could blend those variables together and you may end up with a wheatgrass/kale antioxidant health drink that is supposed to be good for you but just makes you want to vomit.  If at any point in the spring there’s news that his shoulder is still bothering him, I’ll drop him way down in the rankings.  2012 Projections:  80/22/90/.280/10

24. Howie Kendrick – I went over Kendrick’s projections in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball.

25. Shin-Soo Choo – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Gordon.  I call this tier, “I could see myself missing out on these guys because others are believing them more than me.” Most ‘perts are looking at Choo’s 2011 as an aberration.  That wasn’t Soo Choo, that was Soju.  An Asian flush with bad luck.  So last year he had a .317 BABIP (off his career rate, but not really that terrible), a 1o.4% HR/FB (again, not hideous), a 10.1% walk rate (not bad) and a 21.8% K-rate (around his career rate).  He missed a bunch of games because of injury.  If he’s healthy, he’s back to the 17-20 homer, 17-20 steal guy.  Yay.  I don’t know; it’s all right.  I’m not excited to draft him.  2012 Projections:  80/17/85/.280/17

26. Carl Crawford – Last year, things started poorly and went from bad to Mad Libs in the cliche.  Slumps get into guys’ heads and if there isn’t a big girl around to have sex with that slump can last longer than anyone wants.  I’m willing to ignore last year.  Really, I am.  Then the wrist surgery this offseason.  Damn, that wrist got me pist.  Red Sox are reporting he should be ready for Opening Day.  I’m reporting he’s going to miss a month.  There’s a small silver lining.  His wrists aren’t his legs.  Hey, I should’ve gotten better than a C in Human Anatomy!  If he falls, I could see gambling on him, but it’s probably not going to happen if you follow my rankings.  2012 Projections:  75/10/70/.280/30

27. Alex Gordon – Here’s what I said at the end of last year for Gordon, “Gordon’s line this year was 101/23/87/.303/17.  Terrific!  Wonderful!  Tonderific!  But if you peek under the hood, things aren’t as they seem.  His BABIP is .358, easily a career high in the majors.  His walk rate and line drive rate dropped from last year, and his ground ball rate nudged up.  His homers and speed look about right, but if luck goes against him those two categories could get affected.  He’s probably much closer to a .280 hitter with 17-20 homers and 12-15 steals.  With just a tad bad luck, he becomes a fifteen homer guy with 10 steals and a .265 average.  That’s far from spectacular.  That’s spectaculess.  I just made that up; you like it?  You use it.”  And that’s me quoting me!  2012 Projections:  85/20/100/.280/12

28. Brett Gardner – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Rasmus.  I call this tier, “I’m targeting these guys for my teams.  They might all end up getting sleeper posts.  You’ve been forewarned.  (Bee tee dubya, the projections in this tier are a bit optimistic, but I’m sick of hiding my excitement.  Let me free-ball and show you my love!)”  I’m unabashedly a fan of Gardner, which makes very little sense if you’ve read this site for an extended period of time because usually I ignore SAGNOF’ers and just grab one later or off waivers.  To me, Gardner is underrated, which is odd because Yankees are usually overrated.  Gardner is just an enigma wrapped inside a riddle inside a fortune cookie that reads, “Person who sleeps with scratchy rear wakes with smelly finger.” 2012 Projections:  105/8/50/.280/50

29. Jayson Werth – Ponder this, guys and three girl readers, is Werth that different from Corey Hart?  Okay, stop pondering it, your eyes are crossing.  He’s not hitting 35+ homers again like he used to in Citizens Flank, but he should also be better than last year and the Nats offense is looking solid.  Yeah, I know how weird that sounds.  Don’t point out the obvious.  2012 Projections:  75/22/90/.265/15

30. Logan Morrison – His Isolated Power was .221.  Dan Uggla’s was .220.  Paul Konerko’s .217.  Jay Bruce’s .217.  Logan Morrison only hit 23 homers last year.  He missed almost 40 games last year because of injuries and his inability to put the cone of silence on his Twitter account.  He’ll only be 24 years old for the better part of 2012 and the Miami Marlins revamped their lineup by throwing some fabulous moolah around for a World Series ring.   2012 Projections:  60/25/75/.270/5

31. Michael Cuddyer – Went over Cuddyer’s projections in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball.

32. Peter Bourjos – What does it mean that Bourjos is ranked this high?  It means we’re all screwed.  Sorry, don’t mean to yell fire in the theater of Razzball, but outfield is shallower than a conversation with a Kardashian.  I already went over my Bourjos 2012 fantasy.  I wrote it while refusing to eat at Subway because it reeks of onions.  2012 Projections: 85/15/50/.255/35

33. Alex Rios – I wrote an Alex Rios 2012 fantasy post.  It pained me to write that post and I hope you forgive me but I felt like it needed to be said.  Now please forget the apology if I’m right or forget that I wrote the post if I’m wrong.  Thanks, over-the-internet friend!  2012 Projections:  75/17/85/.270/22

34. Colby Rasmus – I’m out on serious limbs with some the players’ rankings in this tier.  Just when you thought I was totally out of my gourd with my Rios ranking, here’s Rasmus about 35 spots ahead of where I see some other ‘perts ranking him.  The key thing with drafting is you are drafting for the upcoming year, don’t try and put together a team that would’ve kicked serious booty while bagging last year’s doubloons.  That’s not going to win you something, but hopefully I just learned you something.  Hey, that sounds like a rhyme Pitbull would make.  Blah blah blah Kodak, blah blah blah Kodak.  2012 Projections:  85/22/70/.265/10

35. Corey Hart – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Ethier.  I call this tier, “I’ll reluctantly draft these guys, but I’d rather not.”  On first glance, Corey Hart’s season last year looks okay.  On second glance, his 2010 season of 31 homer, 7 steal 2010 and 2011 of 26/7 look remarkably similar — he simply had 15 less games last year.  On third glance, you see his fly ball rate plummeted and start to think his homer per fly ball rate is unsustainable.  On fourth glance, you start to wonder why you’re looking at Corey Hart’s numbers four times.  On fifth glance, there is no fifth glance.  On sixth glance, you think about how he may not break 75 runs or RBIs without Prince Fielder, fifty games of The Hebrew Herpes and the invariably injured Weeks.  On seventh glance, you accidentally hypnotize yourself and begin to cluck like a chicken in front of an audience of strangers.  2012 Projections:  75/24/70/.265/8

35 1/2. Yoenis Cespedes – I went over my Yoenis Cespedes fantasy while studying for Jeopardy!  2012 Projections: 65/20/80/.250/12

36. Nick Markakis – The last four years his homer totals have been 20, 18, 12, 15.  One of these years he may stand up and say he is Sparkakis, but until then I don’t care to gamble on a guy that is averaging 16 1/4 homers a year.  I mean, who ever even heard of quarter homers?  Those are singles, Nick.  Elevate the ball.  2012 Projections:  80/18/85/.295/10

37. Ben Zobrist – Went over Zobrist’s projections at the top 20 2nd basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball post.

38. Andre Ethier – This tier that I’m planning on missing makes an already shallow outfield that much more shallow.  I get that.  That’s why I named this tier, “I’ll reluctantly draft…”  I don’t like Ethier, but I can’t turn my nose up at dozens of guys this year.  I don’t buy into Ethier bouncing back to being a top 20 outfielder.  I say if you draft him, you’re going to get a top 30 outfielder at best.  That means he’s ranked near his ceiling.  Opportunity costs will probably have me looking elsewhere.  Hypothetical things that have no weight need to be weighed.  It’s all very scientific.  2012 Projections:  70/22/85/.295

39. Torii Hunter – This is a new tier.  This tier ends at Vernon Wells then starts again in the top 60 for 2012 fantasy baseball so I can sneak in the SAGNOF tier.  I call this tier, “Vets that I’m either lukewarm about or slightly more than lukewarm about.  Read the temperature gauge.”  The guys in this tier are mostly okay, unless you draft your team then get in a DeLorean and play out your fantasy league in 2004.  Then they’re awesome!  Maybe one of the guys in this tier has a Lance Berkman 2011 year.  There always seems to be one, but don’t say you know which guy it is — someone might be listening.  If I had to bet on a surprising year from one vet, I’d go with Torii Hunter.  Lineup’s going to be the best he’s had in a while and he can lamp in the outfield.  Will he definitely surprise like that doode from Community coming out with one of the best albums of 2011?  Nah, but the Torii Hunter gambino won’t cost you much.  2012 Projections:  80/24/90/.270/7

40. Vernon Wells – Cause crazy talk isn’t just something that I reserve for Alex Rios, I also wrote a Vernon Wells sleeper post.  No, there will be no sleeper post about Todd Helton, but that’s funny and sarcastic.  You’re a double threat!  2012 Projections:  75/25/85/.260/8

40 1/16. Michael Bourn – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until the end of this post.  I call this tier, “SAGNOF!”  I just throw all these schmohawk steals guys in the same tier, because, well, frankly, interjection, they’re the same shizz.  Bourn gets you nothing but steals.  If you think that’s a smart way to build a team, I got a Lorenzo Cain, Michael Brantley or yadda3 off waivers that says you should follow the SAGNOF theorem of evolution that says these guys ain’t got no face.  Double negatives being damned, and all.  2012 Projections:  90/2/40/.280/50

40 1/8. Emilio Bonifacio – I went over Bonifacio’s projections in the top 20 shortstops for 2012 fantasy baseball.

40 1/4. Coco Crisp – Coco Crisp could be a cheap Brett Gardner.  Yes, I’m being cereal.  2012 Projections:  65/7/50/.260/35

40 what/fraction-is-this? Nyjer Morgan – Or should I say Tony Plush?  I could see a scenario where Morgan gets confused by not seeing Fielder and Braun and steals two bases in one inning for two different teams.  Sorta like a Joel Youngblood move, only crazier.  2012 Projections:  65/3/30/.270/27

40 3/4. Juan Pierre – Doesn’t have a team yet, but if he gets an everyday job then he’ll give you the usual.  If you don’t know what Juan Pierre gives you fantasy-wise, I have a copper-plated zinc portrait of Lincoln to sell you for $19.99.  2012 Projections:  85/1/40/.285/30

40 7/8. Rajai Davis – Doesn’t have a starting job right now, but didn’t last year and stole 34 bases.  Nothing like a basestealer that has a walk rate under 5%.  Rajai, you can’t steal first base, but you can throw your elbow into a pitch or two.  Keep that in mind.  2012 Projections:  40/1/20/.260/30

Top 20 Outfielders, 2011 Fantasy Baseball

October 24, 2011 By: Grey Category: 2011 Fantasy Baseball Rankings 36 Comments →

Went over the catchers, 1st basemen, 2nd basemen and shortstops and top 20 3rd basemen for 2011. Guess what’s next!  No, not pitchers. Read the title, man.  In 2010, there were only 5 outfielders that hit 30 homers, this year there were 9.  It isn’t exactly like a bleached Sammy Sosa is sticking players with needles, but at least the rich got a little richer — yay, capitalism!  Steals were still in abundance, and that doesn’t seem like it’s going anywhere any time soon.  There were 14 outfielders who stole 30 bases with Michael Bourn still eating the baby out of the king cake.  Since outfield is a deep position, I’m going to turn this one to 40.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 outfielders for 2011 fantasy baseball and how they compare to where I originally ranked them:

1. Matt Kemp – In the preseason, I ranked him 12th overall for all players.  Find another ‘pert who ranked him that high last year.  You’re wasting your time, you won’t find them.  I ranked him as the 2nd outfielder overall.  Just off Ryan Braun.  He was drafted on average 26th overall and some ‘perts had him in the 40′s.  He wasn’t an obvious pick.  2010 was not a good year, but he dropped his ball and anchor — or is it whips and chains? — and asked you to say his name.  In the preseason, I said, “A total off year in 2010.  That’s clear.  He still hit 28 home runs and stole 19 bases.  Sure, he hit .249, but he’s a career .285 hitter and his BABIP shows he was horribly unlucky last year.  Yes, his Ks went up, but what happens when someone is unlucky?  They press and start swinging at more pitches outside the strike zone.  At 26 years old for the majority of 2011, now is not the time to give up on Kemp.”  You can’t make that shizz up.  Okay, you can, but it would be pretty easy to double-check it.  Preseason Rank #2, 2011 Projections:  100/30/105/.285/22, Final Numbers: 115/39/126/.324/40

2. Jacoby Ellsbury – And as right as I was on Kemp, I didn’t see any of this Ellsbury season coming.  About a month into the season I even compared Ellsbury to Gardner.  While Gardner didn’t have a bad season, Ellsbury came out of nowhere with power that made him way more valuable.  But the whole “came out of nowhere” thing makes me think we’re looking at a career year for Ellsbury.  Preseason Rank #21, 2011 Projections:  90/7/70/.290/45, Final Numbers: 119/32/105/.321/39

3. Ryan Braun – In honor of The Hebrew Hammer, I wrote this about three weeks ago on Yom Kippur so I’ll make this fast.  Zing!  BTW, what’s the only thing you’re allowed to eat during Yom Kippur?  Atone-mints.  Zadow!  The fact that Braun wasn’t the number one outfielder with the year he had is more an (old) testament to the guys above him.  Preseason Rank #1, 2011 Projections:  105/32/120/.295/15, Final Numbers:  109/33/111/.332/33

4. Curtis Granderson – It sure was fun while it was going on, but now that Grandy’s 2011 is over it’s time to get real, I mean, was he for real?  God, no.  Will depend on where he gets drafted next year, but off the top of my head I’ll say he will be overrated next year.  Preseason Rank #27, 2011 Projections:  70/25/80/.260/15, Final Numbers:  136/41/119/.262/25

5. Jose Bautista – Went over him in the top 20 3rd basemen post.

6. Justin Upton – There’s guys that will repeat 2011 for a few years if they can avoid injury like Braun and there’s guys like Grandy and Melky.  Upton’s not a Melky or Grandy.  He’s a Braun.  Though Upton’s a lot more the Upton we saw this year than Braun was the Braun that we saw this year.  And that sentence wasn’t half as confusing in my head.  Preseason Rank #7, 2011 Projections:  85/26/95/.270/20, Final Numbers:  105/31/88/.289/21

7. Michael Bourn – There’s a few Razzball concepts that just work perfectly, if I can be so immodest.  SAGNOF is one.  It becomes apparent when you see ESPN rank someone like Bourn 7th overall.  Imagine on April 15th you were to trade Bourn straight up for Justin Upton then grab someone off waivers like Coco Crisp.  Your league would’ve had a conniption.  People would’ve immediately started sending notarized letters to your commissioner, using synonyms for unfair that they found in the thesaurus.  Preseason Rank #40 1/2, 2011 Projections:  80/3/40/.265/45, Final Numbers: 94/2/50/.294/61

8. Melky Cabrera – First player to come out of nowhere, but I don’t think he was the 8th ranked outfielder.  (I know it seems like I recap the players according to the ESPN Player Rater then disagree with it every step of the way, but c’est la vie, as Francouer would say.)  Melky’s stats made him a great third outfielder, solid across the board production.  As for where this season from Melky came from, he’s being seriously aided by plate appearances.  706 PA’s last year for 18 homers and 20 steals?  If his PA’s fall into the 550 range as they had most years prior to 2011, his stats are gonna look like Mike Aviles.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  102/18/87/.305/20

9. Alex Gordon – I recapped Alex Gordon’s season already.  I wrote that while stuffing a duck’s gullet for some foie gras.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  101/23/87/.303/17

10. Carlos Gonzalez – I knew CarGo wasn’t repeating his 2010, gave you preseason projections that were almost perfect and told you he was overrated.  Yet, I feel like he didn’t disappoint as much as he could have.  How dare you overperform your underperformance!  Preseason Rank #5, 2011 Projections:  90/24/95/.285/20, Final Numbers:  92/26/92/.295/20

11. Hunter Pence – Here’s a guy that is cast in the Braun/Upton mold.  You can set your watch to a decent year from Pence.  Give or take some power, some speed, some average… Well, his stats are always there…thereabouts.  Preseason Rank #10, 2011 Projections:  90/25/90/.290/15, Final Numbers:  84/22/97/.314/8

12. Lance Berkman – Went over him in the top 20 1st basemen post.

13. Jeff Francoeur – Imagine if the peasant Royals would’ve actually had some pitching in 2011.  They would’ve easily made the postseason only to be bounced by the Rangers.  The Royals had more runs scored than the Phillies, Brewers and Rays.  As for fantasy, guys that surprise by overproducing are terrific.  But — and unless you’re an alien, there’s always a but — how many fantasy owners actually got these seasons in their entirety?  In deep leagues?  Sure.  You draft a guy like Frenchy and pray, then thank your deity of choice when he pans out.  But in shallow leagues, you look at a guy like Frenchy and maybe pick him up after he does some hitting, then maybe drop him when he stops for a few weeks then maybe you grab him again, but you don’t have these players for the whole season.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  77/20/87/.285/22

14. Michael Morse – Went over him in the top 20 1st basemen post.

15. Josh Hamilton – Ellsbury threw me for a loop, Grandy exceeded my expectations by a shizzton and Melky did what no one thought he could with a bunch of plate appearances, but Hamilton once again did exactly what I thought he would.  Good while healthy with “while healthy” having its own solar system.  Preseason Rank #6, 2011 Projections:  85/27/100/.305/7, Final Numbers: 80/25/94/.298/8

16. B.J. Upton – People seem to hate B.J.  I think it’s the low average bias that permeates fantasy.  It’s odd that there’s such a bias when average is the hardest thing to predict.  Hate on low power or low speed, but low average?  It’s a horn bet.  Preseason Rank #19, 2011 Projections:  95/17/75/.250/40, Final Numbers: 82/23/81/.243/36

17. Ben Zobrist – Went over him in the top 20 2nd basemen post.

18. Andrew McCutchen – Last year we found out that The Dread Pirate wasn’t quite ready to take the next step like I thought he would.  He didn’t come up that short, but short enough as they say at dwarf bowling.  I really try to focus on making these blurbs about what the players did last year rather than looking ahead, but that’s easier said than done.  The Dread Pirate is gonna be my 2012 Matt Kemp.  There’s no one more exciting to me for next year that had a slightly down year.  Preseason Rank #2, 2011 Projections:  100/18/60/.290/38, Final Numbers: 87/23/89/.259/23

19. Coco Crisp – At 31 years old, he had his best season.  Coco Crisp must’ve been eating his Lucky Charms.  All of these steals came from a Billy Beane-GM’d team.  I guess there’s market efficiencies with steals now.  You’re probably not asking yourself what I thought of Moneyball, but I’ll tell you anyway.  SPOILER ALERT (but the movie has been out for over a month, you really have that much to do?)  I was kinda disappointed.  To go all EW on you, I’d give it a B, but I was hoping for an A.  Damn you, expectations.  I know Michael Lewis glossed over the fact Zito, Mulder, Hudson and the steroid-fueled Chavez and Tejada were actually a big part of the A’s success so I figured the movie would do the same.  It did.  They want a fairy tale about how some unknowns carried the team to glory.  Yay, Scott Hatteberg is undervalued and he uses a bat carved from a tree that lightning struck!  Not really, but whatever.  I was more disappointed because I was bored during stretches and I didn’t like Jonah Hill at all.  Hey, let’s get the Jew to find value where others are missing it!  Finally, I wanted some unintentional comedy with Royce Clayton playing Tejada.  “Hey, Miggy, do you have diabetes?”  Cut to:  Tejada holding a syringe.  Tejada, “Yes.  Blood sugar low.”  Though that song the daughter sings is hella (do the kids still say this?) catchy.  Should’ve changed the lyrics though:  I’m just a GM stuck in Oakland… I’m kind of sick of being so broke and having my team get to the playoffs only to choke.  Slow it down, make it stop… Miguel Tejada’s arms look like their gonna pop… BTW, if you wanna read movie reviews, my friend has a movie review blog.  Preseason Rank #62, 2011 Projections:  50/6/35/.260/22, Final Numbers:  69/8/54/.264/49

20. Emilio Bonifacio – Went over him in the top 20 3rd basemen post.

Jarrod’s Diet Of Fastballs And Changeups Headed To Arizona

September 13, 2011 By: Grey Category: Fantasy Baseball Daily Notes 80 Comments →

In the next few days, the Diamondbacks are bringing up their top pitching prospect, Jarrod Parker, to work relief.  He’s a starter though, so it’ll be “Parker poseur” for all you indie kids out there with dark-rimmed glasses, smoking American Spirits.  In 2009, Stephen wrote, “(His) elbow tightness, that caused him to be DL’d on August 5th leading to a visit to Dr. Freeze’s office, is either a bad thing or a precautionary visit.  Speaking of which, I’d like to send Grey to the doctor’s office with my fist in his face.”  Hmm… That last line totally snuck past me the first time.  So, as we all know, no one goes to Dr. Freeze for precautionary reasons.  Parker missed the entire 2010 season after Tommy John surgery.  That’s a long time to eat Jell-O.  Unless you can eat solids after Tommy John surgery.  I don’t know, I’m not a doctor.  This year Parker’s rebounded nicely.  His stats (7.71 K-rate, 3.79 ERA) don’t read like he’s all the way back, but the Diamondbacks are promoting him and will allow him to compete for a 2012 rotation spot.  I trust the Diamondbacks’ judgment more than other teams and would absolutely take a flyer on Parker in keeper/NL-Only leagues.   Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Dontrelle Willis – 3 1/3 IP, 8 ER, 12 baserunners and the last person who still had faith in Willis’ comeback lost it — Todd Bridges.

Juan Francisco – 2-for-4 with his 3rd homer.  I’m gonna let you in on a little secret.  Lean close to the monitor so the guy reading over your shoulder can’t hear.  Okay, not that close, you’re gonna ruin your eyes.  I’m gonna like Juan Francisco a lot next year if he comes away with a starting job.  I mean, a lot.  Hang a big blinking sign on him that says sleeper.  You know what I’m saying?  Yeah, you do.  Okay, now back away from the monitor, it’s getting weird.

Brandon Phillips – 2-for-4, 3 RBIs and two homers.  I’m pretty surprised Phillips has been healthy and his power (14 HRs) and speed (10 SBs) are so down.  At 30 years old, he shouldn’t be falling off already.  Bring back steroids!

Brad Lincoln – 5 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 10 baserunners, 1 K.  Stupid Lincoln!  I’m glad you’ve fallen behind Kennedy and Washington in modern day popularity polls.

Neil Walker – 3-for-4.  When he hit 2 homers in the first week of the season, I had such high hopes for this schmohawk.  He’s now hit 10 homers in the last 22 weeks.  That’s less than a half homer per week.  A half of a homer is a double.  So less than that means he’s stopping between first and second?  So useless.  I hate you, Neil Walker.

Starlin Castro – 3-for-4, 4 runs, 3 RBIs and his 9th homer.  Can we say he was the one bright spot on the Cubs season?  Unless you count Big Z wearing a burlap sack muumuu and hailing a taxi to Crazy-ville.

Jeff Baker – 2-for-4 with his 3rd homer.  It’s nice, but they don’t play him every day so it’s only worthwhile to note it in very deep leagues.

Brett Myers – 8 IP, 1 ER, 7 baserunners, 4 Ks vs. the Phils.  I didn’t trust him for this start, but on a more important note.  His beard looks like it was art directed by Tim Burton.  Or he looks like he’s in The Hart Foundation.

Roy Oswalt – 7 IP, 5 ER, 13 baserunners, 2 Ks.  Charlie Manuel, “I said bring your “A” game, not a game!  Now where’s my straw for chewing?”

Chase Utley – Scheduled his second concussion test.  Guess he forgot he already took one.

Eric Surkamp – 5 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 8 baserunners, 0 Ks vs. the Padres.  He got the win, but this is his 2nd start against the Padres that hasn’t exactly made me a believer for this year.

Brent Morel – Had his 2nd 2 homer game in the last week.  My what a fancy mushroom you are! If you’re desperate for power, I could see taking a flyer hoping that he’ll stay hot for another two weeks.

John Danks – 5 IP, 7 ER.  My hate for Neil Walker is nothing compared to what I have for Danks.  I am Sideshow Bob and Danks is Bart.

Rafael Furcal – 2-for-5, hitting .292 over the last week with 2 steals.  He says he needs to get on base to steal bases.  Props to his baserunning coach.  Teaching some heavy shizz over there in St. Louis.  Next lesson:  After You Hit The Ball, Run To First.  Break it up into two parts so you don’t lose anyone.

Josh Willingham – 3-for-4, 4 RBIs and The Other White Meat now has 2 homers in his last 4 games.  When he hits them, he hits them in bunches like Mr. Chiquita Banana.

Andrew Bailey – Wasn’t able to go yesterday because of being hit on the head by a Kurt Suzuki line drive.  Bailey said, “I’d be on a stretcher if it wasn’t for those Oakley sunglasses.”  Charles Oakley said, “You’d be on a stretcher if you took my sunglasses.”

Miguel Olivo – 2-for-4 with his 18th homer.  Speaking of hitting them in bunches, Olivo does too and this was his 2nd homer in four days.

Jeff Niemann – 7 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 8 baserunners, 5 Ks.  He gets the Sawx next which sounds like a sad trombone until you realize he has a 1.06 ERA vs. them in 17 innings this year.

Joel Peralta – Struck out three in a perfect inning for the save.  Stop circling your prey, save vultures, and swoop in.

Ryan Raburn – 4-for-5, 3 runs, 3 RBIs and his 13th homer.  He’s been so yawnstipating this year it’s hard for me to build up much excitement for him, but this could be the start of a week run of hotness.

Erick Aybar – On Sunday, he went 4-for-5 and yesterday he hit a homer.  EA is in the game.

Josh Beckett – Set to return this weekend.  We’re left waiting for Beckett to see if he’ll return to lay an existential egg.

Coco Crisp – Will miss at least three more days.  Snap, crackle, crap.

Manny Ramirez – Was arrested after a domestic dispute.  Maybe he was mad because his wife took his last fertility pill.  “Now how is Manny gonna be womanny?!”

Florida Bullpen the Fountain of Blech

August 25, 2011 By: Grey / Rudy Category: Fantasy Baseball Daily Notes 69 Comments →

Steve Cishek got the save, but it wasn’t that cut and dry.  Edward Mujica came in for the ninth for the save, but promptly gave up 2 runs.  One person who was nowhere in sight was Leo Nunez and with only 17 people in attendance at Joe Robbie/Pro Player/Blockbuster/Dolphin/Sun Life/Whoever Ponies Up Money To Sponsor This Godforsaken Stadium, it’s not hard to find someone.  As of right now, I’d grab Cishek and Mujica, in that order, but yesterday I thought it was the opposite, so it could change at any moment.  Really depends on McKeon or how good his memory still is.  “Let’s warm up Looper!”  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Javier Vazquez – 7 IP, 3 ER, 8 baserunners, 11 Ks.  From April-June, Vazquez looked like he should’ve retired.  Or returred, if Ludacris is reading this.  Or he looked down right turrible, if Charles Barkley is reading this.  In July, he looked good.  In August, he’s been great.

Logan Morrison – 2-for-4 and his 18th homer in his return to the Marlins.  He pissed off Florida management by pulling out his iPhone during the home run trot to send out some tweets.  Jack McKeon wondered why he’s fiddling with an abacus.

Wily Mo Pena – 3-for-3 with a HR, 2 runs, and 4 RBIs.  I would not want to go anywhere near Jim Bowden’s keyboard or mouse after he read that box score line.  That said, Pena isn’t assured regular playing time with Seager, Carp, and Trayvon hitting well.  More of a day-to-day matchup play.

Kyle Seager – 4-for-4 and 10 for his last 14.  That’s not a hot schmotato…. This is a hot schmotato!  For right now, Seager reminds me of Omar Infante when he’s on a hot streak.

Kevin Kouzmanoff – Rockies called him up.  Why do the Rockies keep taking the A’s discards?  Do they think, “We had success with CarGo.  Why would Mark Ellis and Kouz be any different?”

Bobby Parnell – Got his first save of the year.  Only 299 more to go before the Mets change closers.

Hiroki Kuroda – 7 IP, 3 ER, 9 baserunners, 4 Ks.  2.92 ERA and 1.21 WHIP.  He’s basically Tim Hudson on a bankrupt team, offensively and otherwise.

James Loney – 3-for-5.  He’s been hot (11 for last 17), but I can’t recommend him.  He’s just so…James Loney.  Maybe ask a different fantasy baseball ‘pert if you should pick him up.

Skip Schumaker – 4-for-4 with four singles for the Homeless Man Cycle.

Shaun Marcum – 6 IP, 2 ER, 7 baserunners, 4 Ks.  Season ERA is 3.38.  I loved him in the preseason, and he’s actually been about as good as I thought he’d be.  Only I didn’t foresee some pitchers having ERAs in the low 2′s.  If you won’t lower the mound, raise the plate!

Alex Gordon – 1-for-2, 3 runs and a slam & legs.  Now has 17 homers and 14 steals.  Having a nice year, but anyone who owned him in previous years can tell you 17 homers and 14 steals turns to 12 homers and 7 steals very easily and you don’t want to own that.

Wandy Rodriguez – 6 IP, 4 ER, 14 baserunners, 2 Ks vs. the Rockies.  In related news, it doesn’t look like Wandy’s gonna be traded to the Rockies.

Brian Bogusevic – 3-for-4.  Picked up where J.D. Martinez left off, which is to say he’ll probably be hot for a few days, unless the Astros move into Coors.

Eric Young Jr. – 1-for-5 with his 4th steal in his last four games.  Okay, that’s slightly cherrypicking stats because he got three steals on Saturday, but still if you need steals it’s silly to not plug him in.

Carlos Gonzalez – 2-for-5, 3 RBIs with 5 homers in the last ten games.  Whatever Tulo had, CarGo caught it.  Remind me next August to go out and acquire all Rockie hitters.

Colby Rasmus – Will miss two to three days with his jammed wrist.  With his time off, he’s going to throw bags of flaming turds at La Russa’s Prius.

Brett Lawrie – 2-for-3 with his 4th homer, ending his 1-for-13 slump.  Maybe he slept with one of the Molina sisters as a slump buster.

Michael Cuddyer – Hit by a pitch on the wrist and was pulled from the game.  Oddly enough, his wrist felt fine but the Twins’ trainer just reflexively figured it was a concussion.

Brad Peacock – Mystery’s favorite player is due to be called up for September.  He’s 6′ 1″ but seven-two with his giant boa-rimmed top hat.  Peacock has been dominant in the minor leagues this year.  Double-A:  2.01 ERA and a 11.77 K-rate in 98 2/3 IP.  Triple-A:  8.58 K-rate, 3.56 ERA in 43 IP.  Here’s what Stephen just said during his Peacock fantasy, “With a quick, loose arm action, he throws a 92 to 94 MPH straight fastball, a plus knuckle-curve ball with sharp downward action, and an average changeup.  I often dream of pulling Grey’s fingernails out one at a time.”  Whoa, maybe I should read those closer.  Peacock probably won’t see enough starts this year to make a difference, but I’d look at him in deep NL-Only keepers.

Tom Milone – Nats announced Milone would also be called up when rosters expand.  He’s actually put together a better season than Peacock, but his upside is lower because he’s a soft-tossing lefty that uses deception where Peacock uses good ol’ fashioned speed.  Leave it to Peacock to show off.

Heath Bell – Giants claimed the Padres closer on waivers and they now have until Friday to work out a deal. I don’t think it happens unless Wilson is totally FUB(e)AR’D.  If it does happen, I’d grab Gregerson or Qualls, in that order.

Joey Votto – 5-for-7 with 2 homers in the doubleheader.  Member when you were mad at Votto midseason because of his lack of power?  Member I said it was a long season?  This blurb was sponsored by Members Only.

Scott Sizemore – 4-for-4, 1 RBI.  Nice game but he’s been painfully yawnstipating for an extended stretch.  4 RBIs in his last ten games with no homers or steals.  That’s the new blech.

Coco Crisp – 4-for-4, 5 RBIs and two homers.  One homer was against Sabathia.  Odd since CC Sabathia usually devours left-handed hitters and anything that sounds like Coco Crisp.

Nick Swisher – 2-for-3 with his third homer in two games.  He’s not quite as sexy without the sideburns, but if you’re power deprived he’s worth a look.

Daniel Hudson – 8 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 9 baserunners, 6 Ks.  Was one out from the shutout and then gave up back-to-back HRs to Nix and Gomes.  Kind of like how Kate Hudson performed so well in Almost Famous and then made back-to-back bombs.  Fortunately for Daniel, he had Putz to back him up.  Unfortunately for Kate, she had the putz from the Black Crowes and Alex Rodriguez.

Carlos Santana – Won’t miss time but left early yesterday after taking a couple of foul balls off his mask, inspiring him to write a song, Oye Como Vas Deferens.

Shin-Soo Choo – Was scratched with a sore trunk.  Trunk?  Maybe that’s why Matt LaPorta mistook him for his Kia.

Ezequiel Carrera – 1-for-4 with a steal.  Has now started five games in a row with 3 steals.  Oh, and Ezequiel Carrera sounds like a Porsche carriage built for the Amish.  Up to 4 horsepower!