Fantasy Baseball Advice

So how was your weekend?  Mine included news that Jake Peavy could be out for as long as 12 weeks with a tear in his ankle.  Could’ve been worse, he could’ve hurt his ankle kicking me in the groin.  He was fitted for a cast the other day.  I’d like to sign his cast, “But your FIP’s a 3.00!”  Wasn’t it the flu stopping him from pitching last week?  What’s this, the influenzankle?  That’s some Nomar shizz right there.  As of right now, I’ve DL’d Peavy in all leagues where I own him, hoping for news that he’ll only be out the shortest possible time of 4 weeks or I’ll drop him if news comes out that he will miss the rest of the season.  Now begins the part of our program where I jump from matchup to matchup waiting for someone to stick.  Obviously it depends on the league, but, as of right now, I’m giving Dallas Braden a whirly-bird.  Braden gets the Dodgers and Padres this week.  If he’s good and his matchups are decent, I’ll hold him.  If not, I’ll move onto the schmohawk starter behind door number three.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Roy Halladay – His right groin is hurt.  He has two groins?!  The Blue Jays are hoping he can make his next start against the Nats.  I’m sure the Jays are not the only ones holding out hope.

Johan Santana – 3 IP, 9 ER.  Rumors are he prepped for this start with Livan Hernandez.

Mark Teixeira/Alex Rodriguez – Yanks scored 15 runs, these two went for 1-for-8 with one run scored.  Ticker Tease!

Brad Bergesen – Complete game, 2 ER.  Here’s one those guys I wouldn’t try and force onto my team just because Peavy was hurt.  Bergesen is just as likely to give up 5 in four innings next time out.

Derek Lowe – 2 1/3 IP, 7 ER.  Didn’t I just say he was about as reliable as they get?  Lowe obviously let my praise go to his head.  This start was so egregious, I’d think about sitting him next time out.

David Ross – Hit two homers yesterday.  Is it me or does it feel like David Ross has more two homer games than one home run games?

Yunel Escobar – Was pulled from the game after he botched a rundown.  After the game, Bobby Cox said, “Grrr.”

Ty Wigginton – 2 HRs yesterday.  Deep league spoiler alert!  Wigginton gets crazy hot at least once a year.  Maybe this is the start of one of those streaks.  He isn’t guaranteed playing time, so don’t try and jam him into your lineup in 12 team leagues just yet.

J.A. Happ – 5 2/3 IP, 5 ER.  Told you to loss him after his previous start.

Rocco Baldelli/Nick Green/Josh Beckett – All homered yesterday for the Sawx.  If you picked them in some kind of depraved, baseball home run challenge trifecta, you deserve the loot.

Corey Hart – 2 HRs yesterday.  Now 6 for his last 12 with two homers and one steal.  Helped that this was a day game, but he was still wearing his sunglasses.

Casey McGehee – HR yesterday.  Now 9 for his last 16 and occasionally batting leadoff for the Brewers.  He has no speed, but some light power.  Think 10 homers.

Miguel Olivo – 4 homers in his last 6 games.  He’s a liability on average, but while he’s hot it’s worth taking a flier for some pop.

Coco Crisp – Heads to the DL.  To take his place, the Royals called up Franken Berry.

Kosuke Fukudome – After batting .277 with one homer in May, he’s batting .135 in June with no homers and no steals.  On May 1st, I said to sell him.  Now, I’m saying why are you still holding him?

Jason Hammel – He was a one week flier to fill-in for Peavy last week.  He went 11 1/3 innings with 3 ER.  He gets the Pirates at home and the A’s in Oakland next so I’m going to press my luck.  Though I’m benching him for the Pirates game to avoid the whammy, then will start him against the A’s.

Chad Billingsley – 7 IP, 2 ER and his 9th win.  Oh, and he got stronger as the season went on last year.  Zoinks!

Nelson Cruz – On June 5th, I said, “…he’s just about at .300, that’s when the patented Cruz Stall takes over and he ends up back at .265 by June 20th.”  He’s at .278 and batting .200 in June.  Cust kayin’.

Frank Francisco – To the DL.  Is it me or does it seem like Frank² goes to the 15-day DL every 16th day?  C.J. Wilson will take over closing duties.  Or I should say he’ll continue closer duties.  Francisco is dealing with shoulder tendinitis, which is obviously not a great thing for a closer.  I wouldn’t be surprised if this is an ongoing issue for the rest of the season.  Obviously there’s safer closers out there than C.J. Wilson, but he could rack up some saves for the rest of the season.  SAGNOF!

James Shields – 6 1/3 4 ER.  Should’ve been a gimme today vs. the Nats.  Now sits at a 3.52 ERA on the year, so it’s not like he’s been terrible, but I was expecting more.

Dan Wheeler – Got the vulture Win yesterday, which is nice, but he’s not the guy the Rays are going to for saves.  At this point, I’d hold Howell for saves and no one else.  I’m currently holding Wheeler as an MR, but my leagues are hella deep.  He will be the first one to go if there’s a need to drop someone.

Scott Kazmir – Should be back soon.  If he was dropped by an impatient owner, I’d grab him just in case he gets his shizz together.

Jered Weaver – 9 IP, 0 ER, 5 Ks.  The Padres had five hits, surprisingly three by Adrian Gonzalez.  I say surprisingly because why is anyone even pitching to him?  Challenging themselves?

Juan Rivera – Coming off the heels of making Friday’s Buy/Sell, he hit 2 HRs yesterday.  I told you!  Then again, Kendry Morales hit two over the weekend and he was a sell. *sighs*

Sean Rodriguez – Kendrick got sent down and Rodriguez was recalled.  So what does Scioscia do?  He doesn’t start Rodriguez.  Brilliant!  I’d hold Rodriguez for a few more days to a week to see how or if he’s used.  Because if he’s used and starts hitting homers, you’ll want to be the one owning him.

Jose Lopez – With a 4 HR / 12 RBI June, he’s somehow on pace for 24 HR / 102 RBI, albeit with an Ugglay .247 average.

Ian Kinsler/Aaron Hill – Proof that if you’re going to take a 100 AB vacation, you’d best do it right after a hot start.  Last 102 AB for Kinsler:  .176/13/4/13/3.  Last 101 AB for Hill:  .248/6/3/11/0.

Garrett Atkins - Proof that if you’re going to take a 200 AB vacation, you’d best get used to sitting on the bench.  He hit 3 for 4 on Sunday for his ONLY start in the week.  Yikes.

Cliff Lee - A 3 H / 2 BB shutout against the Cards with a no-hitter bid broken up in the 8th inning by the youngest Flying Molina brother.  Only 4 wins this year but the biggest regression for him has been in his run support vs. his ERA (2.88 ERA).

Josh Johnson – Complete game win giving up 3 earned.  The box score doesn’t show it, but this start was a bit of a nail-biter.  More of a nail-biter than the Lakers clinching win.  Speaking of which, the Lakers didn’t even seem to care.  Pile on someone.  Dump a Gatorade jug over Phil Jackson’s yellow Malcolm X hat.  Fog up Stuart Scott’s coke bottle glasses.  Something!  What a bore.  Then again, I don’t like basketball at all.  How hard is it for any of these guys to dunk?  About the same as me throwing a piece of paper in the trash.  You know what I want to see?  A basketball league of five-seven and under guys.  Now that would be interesting.  Where’s the skill?  He made a layup… He better, he’s six-seven!  /tangent

Matt Wieters was finally called up by the Orioles.  We know what you’re all thinking – how could they give up on Gregg Zaun so quickly?  Don’t the Orioles brass have the intestinal fortitude to withstand the hype surrounding this ‘phenom’ when they’ve got the ultimate journeyman?  Evidently not.  So how has Wieters been spending his near two months in AAA detention?  He’s been awesome…ly average.  .285 average.  5 HRs.  30 Ks in 137 ABs.  There’s little doubt that Wieters will be an excellent hitter for years to come (see his .350+ average b/w A and AA last year) but those AAA numbers are more likely what you’ll get from him in 2009.  Think .285 with 12 HRs.  He could prove us wrong and you can do worse than bet on hitting upside at Catcher.  Just don’t overpay for it.  Anyway, here’s what else we saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Jason Bartlett – Another day, another injury to a Rays middle infielder.  Yesterday, it was Iwamura.  Now Bartlett goes on the DL with a sprained ankle that he hurt while practicing his dismount from the statistical stratosphere (.373 AVG!).  Reid Brignac, who has been hyped for a while, will replace him.

Jose Reyes - Has there ever been a top 5 pick whose owners were relieved when they went on the DL?  Enter Reyes.  What’s the use of Reyes if he has a bum leg (strained calf)?  Let him get healthy so he can steal some damn bases.

Fernando Martinez – Was called up yesterday.  Fernando Martinez is going to be a great one and he should be pursued in keeper leagues.  But let’s turn over the post to frequent commenter, Mr. Baseball, for a second.  He listed these names:  Travis Snider, Cameron Maybin, Dexter Fowler, Matt LaPorta, Elvis Andrus and Matt Gamel.  His point is fairly obvious.  Rookie nookie starts out like a frollicking gazelle and ends like a dead gazelle.  Martinez will hit one homer, slap some fans’ hands, and get sent down when the Church of Concussed Heads returns.  He’s a decent flier, because you never know what he may do for a week or two, but don’t drop anyone too worthwhile.

David Wright – Has three homers, but stole his 11th base yesterday.  Sympathy gains for Reyes?

Carlos Quentin – Now saying he’ll hopefully be back next Monday.  Awesome!  Maybe next week he can get in one at-bat and then miss another two weeks.  Could someone conference call Quentin with Chipper to explain the merits of the DL?

Max Scherzer – 7 IP.  Second straight 10 K game.  Just as encouraging, he’s thrown only 2 BBs in those games.  Owners enjoy the ride and keep your fingers crossed he stays healthy.

Melky Cabrera – Left the game with a sore shoulder after crashing into the outfield wall.  In a home game, Melky’s jersey would’ve caught the jetstream and he’d be somewhere in the South Bronx right now.

Coco Crisp – Left game with a sore shoulder too.  First you have Melky, now you have cereal.  Melky… Cereal, baby.  Melky… Cereal, baby.  What, you don’t listen to LL?

Brett Gardner – In place of Melky, 3 steals.  He ain’t taking no jive from no Western Union messenger!

Ryan Braun – Took a pitch from Adam Wainwright off his wrist.  Looks like he’ll be day-to-day.  Wainwright laughs manically and says, “You can call me, Painwrist.”  The Brewers tried to retaliate on Albert Pujols and he lined a double with his bicep.

Hanley Ramirez – Came out of the game with a tweaked groin.  Hanley was feeling a little less *pinkie to mouth* manly.

David Ortiz – Dropped to 6th in the order.  Solace for Ortiz owners who have seen the chances of an 0-for-5 decrease slightly.

Joey Votto - Welcome to our brand new game… Is he hitting a home run or is he dizzy?

Roy Oswalt – 6 IP, 4 ER and only has three decisions on the year to bring his record to 1-2.  Member those days when he’d win 20 games every year with crazy Win Karma?  Yeah, someone else might too, trade him to that person.

Edwin Jackson – 6 1/3 IP, 2 ER.  I told you to pick him up after his first start of the year.  Cust kayin’.

Mark DeRosa – HR yesterday, 8 on the year.  .260/22 HRs.  What are DeRosa’s final numbers, Alex?

Zach Greinke – 9 IP, 1 ER, 8 Ks.  We get it.  We’ve changed Greinke’d to Pwnson’d in the glossary.

Joe Blanton – 11 Ks?  Let me guess, the Marlins?

Livan Hernandez – Complete game win?  Let me guess, the Nationals?

Brad Lidge – Got his 9th save in a sticky situation.  Lidge is going to be given every opportunity to succeed, which means he may fail.  But he’ll have the chances.

Shane Victorino – 4-for-5, he’s actually been a bit light on the steals this year, but who doesn’t love The Flying Hawaiian?  Not me, friend.

Nolan Reimold – Now has 3 HRs in 46 ABs.  Could be this month’s Travis Snider.

Gary Sheffield – Hit his 5th homer.  I think he’s way too stubborn to play and not play well, but I also think he’s too old and broken down to stay healthy.  Doesn’t hurt to take a flier, just don’t drop anyone too valuable.

Jayson Nix – 2 HRs yesterday.  Whatever, can’t supplant Alexei now, sucka!

Nomar Garciaparra – Out again with a strained something-or-other.  Someone picked him up in one of my ‘pert leagues and I swear to you, I laughed out loud.

Jesus Guzman – Optioned back to beautiful, bustling Fresno.  This came just days after Bochy said he’d start over some schmohawk.  Ah, fantasy baseball… When your loved ones don’t stress you out enough.

Ian Snell – Threw a complete game!  Then again, it was rained out after 5 innings and he gave up 5 runs.

Troy Glaus – May not return this year.  No kidding?

Nick Blackburn – 7 IP, 1 ER, 7 Ks.  Usually no Ks, no WHIP, no thank you.

Mark Reynolds – Hit his 13th homer.  Where ya at, Chris Davis?  At 12, after yesterday’s 2 homer game.  And at 61 and 67 Ks, respectively.  This race is way too close to call.

Chad Qualls – Sat in favor of Juan Gutierrez in a clear save situation after giving up runs in 3 of his last 4 outings.  We’re not reading into it, but in a way we are.  Read into that!

Andrew Bailey – Got the save about three weeks (estimate) after he was called the closer.   I’d own him, but it would sure be nice to see him again before the summer solstice. (No idea when this is, but it makes me sound smart when I say it.  Though not as smart when I point out I don’t know when it is.)

Bobby Jenks – Out with the flu as Linebrink got the save.  Can’t Matt Thornton blow his snot rockets at Bartolo Colon?

Bobby Abreu – Hit his 1st HR of the year.  Guess he shouldn’t have participated in that Winter League Home Run Derby.

In the 2009 fantasy baseball rankings, we already went over 2009’s top 40 outfielders.  But like Jacques Cousteau once may have said to his underachieving son, “That’s not deep enough.”  There’s more outfielders to draft than there’s members of the Wu-Tang Clan, so we take it to the top 60 outfielders for 2009 fantasy baseball.  If you think there’s no value to be found this deep in the position, ask someone who owned Nate McLouth, Jacoby Ellsbury or Milton Bradley last year.  Anyway, here’s the top 60 outfielders for 2009 fantasy baseball:

41. Jayson Werth – This is the first tier.  This tier goes from here to Juan Pierre.  I call this tier, “Guys I like, but they have caveats.”  As for Werth, will he still be… *pinkie to mouth* Worthwhile?  He should be.  In Citizen’s Bank, Werth should be good for at least 17 HRs and he can chuck in 17 steals, as well.  The one caveat is he might hit .260.  2009 Projections:  95/17/70/.270/17

42. Coco Crisp – Well, hello, Mr. Cereal.  I already went over Coco Crisp for 2009 fantasy.  2009 Projections:  90/12/60/.280/25

43. Xavier Nady – 2008 was a career year.  Nady could go 25/90 in 2009.  He’s not hitting .300 again.  2009 Projections: 80/24/90/.275

44. Conor Jackson – His 2009 projections can be found at the top 20 1st basemen for 2009 post.

45. Fred Lewis – With the bunions behind him (no, “bunions behind him” is not a euphemism for hemorrhoids), he’s ready to be valuable in 2009.  2009 Projections:  95/12/50/.270/25

46. Andre Ethier – In the top 4o outfielders post, someone asked where was Ethier.  I said, “Ethier hit 7 home runs in August and .462 in September, two insane months that don’t look like they’re going to be easily repeated.”  And that’s me quoting me!  2009 Projections: 80/17/75/.290/5

47. Mark DeRosa – DeRosa’s projections are in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2009 post.

48. Justin Upton – He’s very young still, but check this out.  To get you further jazzed, he led the majors with the longest average home run at 417 feet, according to “The Bill James Handbook.”  2009 Projections: 70/20/70/.260/7 but there’s lots of upside from those numbers.

49. Nelson Cruz – Went over him in a fantasy sleeper post.  2009 Projections:  75/25/90/.270/10

50. Adam Jones – Could be a younger, slightly riskier Coco Crisp.  Speaking of Coco Crisp, someone has the munchies!  2009 Projections: 75/15/60/.275/12

51. Shin-Soo Choo – Let’s call him a less stoned, more Korean Adam Jones.   2009 Projections: 70/16/70/.280/11

52. Rick Ankiel – Not sure how the Cards outfield is going to shake out, but at some point, someone’s going to have to make room for Colby Rasmus.  2009 Projections:  70/22/85/.260

53. Denard Span – I not-so-secretly hope Span fails miserably for Gomez’s sake.  Unfortunately (or fortunately if you’re Span kin — I said, spanking — hehe), I think Span’s here to stay, even in the Twins overcrowded outfield.  His batting eye was impeccable last year.  2009 Projections:  90/8/60/.285/20

54. Juan Pierre – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here to Taveras.  I call this tier, “SAGNOF.”  2009 Projections:  Steals

55. Willy Taveras – I have two words for you…. Actually, that was six words to get to the two words so eight words… Well, technically, now I’m up to twenty-one words.  Anyway, Dusty Baker, that was the original two words.  Baker’s going to bat Taveras lead-off and let him run like crazy.  He might just get 80 Steals and 60 Runs.  2009 Projections:  Lotsa steals.

56. Mike Cameron – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here to Kubel.  I call this tier, “The Forgetten Vets.” If Mike Cameron and Adam Dunn were invited to a pinata party, we can guarantee one of two outcomes:  no candy or a whole lotta candy.  2009 Projections:  70/22/75/.245/18

57. Nick Swisher – Swisher’s 2009 projections can be found at the top 20 1st basemen for 2009 post.

58. Hideki Matsui – I almost put Eric Byrnes here, but he’s old and he relied on speed.  Matsui will prolly get 400 ABs this year and produce solid numbers for a deep league.  2009 Projections:  70/18/80/.285

59. Randy Winn – As is the case with this tier, these guys offer little upside.  Winn is the epitome of that.  2009 Projections:  80/12/60/.290/17

60. David DeJesus – You have Kelly Johnson and the dealer is showing David DeJesus.  That’s a push.  2009 Projections:  70/12/75/.290/12

61. Jason Kubel – I just couldn’t resist adding one more name.  Some people may look at Kubel and say yawnstipating, I look at him and I say not that far from Jermaine Dye’s numbers.  2009 Projections:  80/20/80/.280

After the top 60 outfielders for 2009 fantasy baseball, there’s a lot of names, but here’s two that stand out:

Jeff Francoeur – There’s certain guys you can grab late to look for upside-slash-a bounce back year, Frenchy ain’t one of them.  I wouldn’t draft him with your team.  2009 Projections:  65/18/70/.260

Elijah Dukes -  The location is the car.  The scene is Dukes and Milledge carpooling to work.  Did you bring quarters for the toll? I thought you got some when you bought that BK Broiler.  Those are MY quarters! Screech to the side of the road.  2009 Projections:  75/20/70/.265/15 (<–not as optimistic as you might think)

The Cubs just got a hundred and twelve pounds lighter as Felix Pie heads to the Orioles for some dudes that you don’t need to concern yourself with right now.  Either the Cubs got fed up waiting around for Pie or they think he’s nothing more than Corey Patterson, another player the Cubs dumped on the Orioles.  Jim Bowden and the Nationals might not be the only team where teams can unload their failed 5-tool projects (aka “The Tool Shed”).  Hopefully, Delmon Young doesn’t end up in Washington or Baltimore in the next 2 years.  Anyway, let’s look at the 2009 fantasy baseball implications for the Felix Pie trade:

Felix Pie – Pee-ay should have the inside track on the left field job going into and coming out of spring training.  Suddenly, Pie is fantasy relevant.  What’s to like about him?  Well, the weird guy in the overalls at The Home Depot is not the only one who’s toolsy.  Pie is a speed and power combo guy.  He’s just not quite that powerful or that, um, speedful.  Torii Hunter could take Pie in an arm wrestling match.  Pie’s on the Bowden Fluffer JV Team with guys like Coco Crisp and Adam Jones.   Pie’s upside is Randy Winn.

Joey Gathright – Except in very deep mixed leagues or NL-Only leagues, Gathright’s not really someone to draft, but you should keep an eye on him.  First sign of a Milton Bradley having a pulled hammy/bout with his inner demons, I’d grab Gathright for some cheap steals.  SAGNOF, boyz (and one possible girl reader).

When James Shields swung and missed his haymaker yesterday during the Sawx/Rays brawl, Coco should’ve totally spun him around and gave him a springboard splash to the solar plexus. Then once Shields was down, Coco could’ve laid him on top of the Spanish Announcer’s table and dropped the big ‘bow. But, alas…it was Coco Crisp not Koko B. Ware.

Then three innings after the brawl, Manny tweaked a sore hammy and left the game. As he was limping through the dugout, Manny gave Youuuuuuuuk a solid shove. This was heard right before Manny shoved him. Youkilis, “You know with Big Papi on the DL…if you want to teach me the handshake you do with him, I could try to fill in…” Manny, “You’re not my real Papi! I hate you!” *shove* In the next inning, this transpired: Youk, “Sorry about that Manny. I have this extra Chupa Chup lollipop….” Manny, “Gimme! He he he… Thanks, Millar.” Youk, “We talked about this… My name is… Oh forget it.” Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday:

Jacoby Ellsbury – Left the game with a strained wrist. No word if the injury was sustained during Chupa Chup Gate.

Jon Lester – One thing he didn’t have to fight was his control. He didn’t issue one walk. Was the first time this year he pulled off this pretty unremarkable feat.

Jair Jurrjens – The fairy Brave dust only lasts so long. Hey, whatever happened to Jaret Wright?

Ryan Franklin/Todd Wellemeyer – 7th save/7-1, respectively. Disrespectively, seriously? Coming into the year, these guys were a combined 62-73 with, like, a crappy ERA.

Brad Ausmus – The Astros are throwing in the Towles and reinstating Brad “I will be featured in a future Razzball Spotlight” Ausmus as their catcher. Razztastic.

Josh Banks – I said this yesterday in the comments, “He’s not a strikeout pitcher so your expectations should stay in line, but he could be worthwhile while the league takes time to catch up to him and he does pitch at Petco.” Wow, I’m brilliant. If they gave out virtual blogger awards I’d have a virtual mantle full in my virtual bathroom so I could pretend I virtually don’t care.

Negro League Draft – Dave Winfield helped organize a ceremonial draft where Negro League players were picked as honorary members of MLB teams. Very touching. It must be a special day for all these players as they approach their twilight years. The biggest applause was for Atlanta’s pick. A middle infielder known for his distinct batting stance and line drive power. His name is Julio Franco.

Jimmy Rollins – Was benched for not running out a popup. By that logic, Pat Burrell should’ve been benched for the last three years.

Homer Bailey – His 2008 debut was thwarted by a Cole Hamels 3 hit shutout. The game was billed as the best matchup of mulleted young pitchers since a young Randy Johnson faced off against Chuck Finley. Bailey’s control problems carried over from AAA (4 BB in 6.1 IP) and he only had 1 K and that was the pitcher. Stick with common sense and don’t add a pitcher with the name ‘Homer’ to your team…

Jay Bruce – Looks like he went oh-for-four yesterday, but we all know that is not possible, so I’m going to assume he was pulling one of those switcheroos like William Hurt does in that movie with the guy from Lost and the black guy with the droopy eye. (I would’ve said *SPOILER ALERT*, but no one would consider that movie something you could spoil and I never even saw the movie, I’m going on the spoiler from the trailer.)